Search results for: lagged variables

Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: Carlos Alfredo Camargo Vila, Fredy Augusto Avellaneda Vargas, Debora Alcida Nabarlatz

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Due to the current need to implement environmentally friendly technologies, the possibility of using renewable raw materials to produce bioproducts such as biofuels, or in this case, to produce biolubricant bases, from residual oils (tallow), originating has been studied of the bovine industry. Therefore, it is hypothesized that through the study and control of the operating variables involved in the reverse transesterification method, a biolubricant base with high performance is obtained on a laboratory scale using animal fats from the bovine industry as raw materials, as an alternative for material recovery and environmental benefit. To implement this process, esterification of the crude tallow oil must be carried out in the first instance, which allows the acidity index to be decreased ( > 1 mg KOH/g oil), this by means of an acid catalysis with sulfuric acid and methanol, molar ratio 7.5:1 methanol: tallow, 1.75% w/w catalyst at 60°C for 150 minutes. Once the conditioning has been completed, the biodiesel is continued to be obtained from the improved sebum, for which an experimental design for the transesterification method is implemented, thus evaluating the effects of the variables involved in the process such as the methanol molar ratio: improved sebum and catalyst percentage (KOH) over methyl ester content (% FAME). Finding that the highest percentage of FAME (92.5%) is given with a 7.5:1 methanol: improved tallow ratio and 0.75% catalyst at 60°C for 120 minutes. And although the% FAME of the biodiesel produced does not make it suitable for commercialization, it does ( > 90%) for its use as a raw material in obtaining biolubricant bases. Finally, once the biodiesel is obtained, an experimental design is carried out to obtain biolubricant bases using the reverse transesterification method, which allows the study of the effects of the biodiesel: TMP (Trimethylolpropane) molar ratio and the percentage of catalyst on viscosity and yield as response variables. As a result, a biolubricant base is obtained that meets the requirements of ISO VG (Classification for industrial lubricants according to ASTM D 2422) 32 (viscosity and viscosity index) for commercial lubricant bases, using a 4:1 biodiesel molar ratio: TMP and 0.51% catalyst at 120°C, at a pressure of 50 mbar for 180 minutes. It is necessary to highlight that the product obtained consists of two phases, a liquid and a solid one, being the first object of study, and leaving the classification and possible application of the second one incognito. Therefore, it is recommended to carry out studies of the greater depth that allows characterizing both phases, as well as improving the method of obtaining by optimizing the variables involved in the process and thus achieving superior results.

Keywords: biolubricant base, bovine tallow, renewable resources, reverse transesterification

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Authors: Sudawan Somjai

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The purposes of this research were to investigate the five important perceptions of service quality from inbound tourists who visited Bangkok, Thailand in the first quarter of 2014. Data were collected from over 10 important tourist destinations in Bangkok. The independent variables of this study included gender, age, levels of education, occupation, income, and country of origin while the dependent variables included their experience, opinion, and comment on the service received during visited tourist destinations. A simple random sampling method was performed to obtain 400 respondents. The respondents were both male and female in the same proportion. However, the majority were between 31-40 years old. Most were married with an undergraduate degree. Most were considered themselves as middle income with an average income of the respondents was between $30,001-40,000 per year. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents came to Bangkok because of low cost and high quality of tourism. The majority came to Bangkok for the first time and spent about 10 days in Thailand. The five important service perceptions that were observed by the inbound tourists in descending order according to mean were reliable of service provider, proper time of service provider, competency of service provider, neat and clean of service provider, and politeness of service provider.

Keywords: experience, inbound tourists, perception, service quality

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Authors: Ignatius Madu

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The study aims at assessing the environmental and socioeconomic determinants of climate change resilience in rural Nigeria. This is necessary because researches and development efforts on building climate change resilience of rural areas in developing countries are usually made without the knowledge of the impacts of the inherent rural characteristics that determine resilient capacities of the households. This has, in many cases, led to costly mistakes, delayed responses, inaccurate outcomes, and other difficulties. Consequently, this assessment becomes crucial not only to policymakers and people living in risk-prone environments in rural areas but also to fill the research gap. To achieve the aim, secondary data were obtained from the Annual Abstract of Statistics 2017, LSMS-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and General Household Survey Panel 2015/2016, and National Agriculture Sample Survey (NASS), 2010/2011.Resilience was calculated by weighting and adding the adaptive, absorptive and anticipatory measures of households variables aggregated at state levels and then regressed against rural environmental and socioeconomic characteristics influencing it. From the regression, the coefficients of the variables were used to compute the impacts of the variables using the Stochastic Regression of Impacts on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) Model. The results showed that the northern States are generally low in resilient indices and are impacted less by the development indicators. The major determining factors are percentage of non-poor, environmental protection, road transport development, landholding, agricultural input, population density, dependency ratio (inverse), household asserts, education and maternal care. The paper concludes that any effort to a successful resilient building in rural areas of the country should first address these key factors that enhance rural development and wellbeing since it is better to take action before shocks take place.

Keywords: climate change resilience; spatial impacts; STIRPAT model; Nigeria

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Authors: Jeremy Ritchey

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Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. face many challenges when looking to progress in society, especially when pursuing post-secondary education. The majority of research done on state-level policy adoption pertaining to undocumented higher-education pursuits, specifically in-state resident tuition and financial aid eligibility policies, have framed the discussion on the potential and actual impacts which implementation can and has achieved. What is missing is a model to view the social, political and demographic landscapes upon which such policies (in their various forms) find a route to legislative enactment. This research looks to address this gap in the field by investigating the correlations and significant state-level variables which can be operationalized to construct a framework for adoption of these specific policies. In the process, analysis will show that past unexamined conceptualizations of how such policies come to fruition may be limited or contradictory when compared to available data. Circling on the principles of Policy Innovation and Policy Diffusion theory, this study looks to use variables collected via Michigan State University’s Correlates of State Policy Project, a collectively and ongoing compiled database project centered around annual variables (1900-2016) collected from all 50 states relevant to policy research. Using established variable groupings (demographic, political, social capital measurements, and educational system measurements) from the time period of 2000 to 2014 (2001 being when such policies began), one can see how this data correlates with the adoption of policies related to undocumented students and in-state college tuition. After regression analysis, the results will illuminate which variables appears significant and to what effect, as to help formulate a model upon which to explain when adoption appears to occur and when it does not. Early results have shown that traditionally held conceptions on conservative and liberal identities of the state, as they relate to the likelihood of such policies being adopted, did not fall in line with the collected data. Democratic and liberally identified states were, overall, less likely to adopt pro-undocumented higher education policies than Republican and conservatively identified states and vis versa. While further analysis is needed as to improve the model’s explanatory power, preliminary findings are showing promise in widening our understanding of policy adoption factors in this realm of policies compared to the gap of such knowledge in the publications of the field as it currently exists. The model also looks to serve as an important tool for policymakers in framing such potential policies in a way that is congruent with the relevant state-level determining factors while being sensitive to the most apparent sources of potential friction. While additional variable groups and individual variables will ultimately need to be added and controlled for, this research has already begun to demonstrate how shallow or unexamined reasoning behind policy adoption in the realm of this topic needs to be addressed or else the risk is erroneous conceptions leaking into the foundation of this growing and ever important field.

Keywords: policy adoption, in-state tuition, higher education, undocumented immigrants

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Authors: Thomas Weber, Nina Strobel, Thomas Kohne, Eberhard Abele

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In context of the energy transition in Germany, the importance of so-called virtual power plants in the energy supply continues to increase. The progressive dismantling of the large power plants and the ongoing construction of many new decentralized plants result in great potential for optimization through synergies between the individual plants. These potentials can be exploited by mathematical optimization algorithms to calculate the optimal application planning of decentralized power and heat generators and storage systems. This also includes linear or linear mixed integer optimization. In this paper, procedures for reducing the number of decision variables to be calculated are explained and validated. On the one hand, this includes combining n similar installation types into one aggregated unit. This aggregated unit is described by the same constraints and target function terms as a single plant. This reduces the number of decision variables per time step and the complexity of the problem to be solved by a factor of n. The exact operating mode of the individual plants can then be calculated in a second optimization in such a way that the output of the individual plants corresponds to the calculated output of the aggregated unit. Another way to reduce the number of decision variables in an optimization problem is to reduce the number of time steps to be calculated. This is useful if a high temporal resolution is not necessary for all time steps. For example, the volatility or the forecast quality of environmental parameters may justify a high or low temporal resolution of the optimization. Both approaches are examined for the resulting calculation time as well as for optimality. Several optimization models for virtual power plants (combined heat and power plants, heat storage, power storage, gas turbine) with different numbers of plants are used as a reference for the investigation of both processes with regard to calculation duration and optimality.

Keywords: CHP, Energy 4.0, energy storage, MILP, optimization, virtual power plant

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Authors: Ismail Seçer

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of anxiety sensitivity in adolescents on anxiety disorder and childhood depression. Mood disorders and anxiety disorders in children and adolescents can be given examples of important research topics in recent years. The participants of the study consist of 670 students in Erzurum and Erzincan city centers. The participants of the study were 670 secondary and high school students studying in city centers of Erzurum and Erzincan. The participants were chosen based on convenience sampling. The participants were between the ages of 13 and 18 (M=15.7, Ss= 1.35) and 355 were male and 315 were female. The data were collected through Anxiety Sensitivity Index and Anxiety and Depression Index for Children and Adolescents. For data analysis, Correlation analysis and Structural Equation Model were used. In this study, correlational descriptive survey was used. This model enables the researcher to make predictions related to different variables based on the information obtained from one or more variables. Therefore, the purpose is to make predictions considering anxiety disorder and childhood depression based on anxiety sensitivity. For this purpose, latent variable and structural equation model was used. Structural equation model is an analysis method which enables the identification of direct and indirect effects by determining the relationship between observable and latent variables and testing their effects on a single model. CFI, RMR, RMSEA and SRMR, which are commonly accepted fit indices in structural equation model, were used. The results revealed that anxiety sensitivity impacts anxiety disorder and childhood depression through direct and indirect effects in a positive way. The results are discussed in line with the relevant literature. This finding can be considered that anxiety sensitivity can be a significant risk source in terms of children's and adolescents’ anxiety disorder experience. This finding is consistent with relevant research highlighting that in case the anxiety sensitivity increases then the obsessive compulsive disorder and panic attack increase too. The adolescents’ experience of anxiety can be attributed to anxiety sensitivity.

Keywords: anxiety sensitivity, anxiety, depression, structural equation

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Authors: Asma Hanif, A. I. K. Butt, Shabir Ahmad, Rahim Ud Din, Mustafa Inc

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This paper is devoted to a study of the fuzzy fractional mathematical model reviewing the transmission dynamics of the infectious disease Covid-19. The proposed dynamical model consists of susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, quarantine, hospitalized and recovered compartments. In this study, we deal with the fuzzy fractional model defined in Caputo’s sense. We show the positivity of state variables that all the state variables that represent different compartments of the model are positive. Using Gronwall inequality, we show that the solution of the model is bounded. Using the notion of the next-generation matrix, we find the basic reproduction number of the model. We demonstrate the local and global stability of the equilibrium point by using the concept of Castillo-Chavez and Lyapunov theory with the Lasalle invariant principle, respectively. We present the results that reveal the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the considered model through the fixed point theorem of Schauder and Banach. Using the fuzzy hybrid Laplace method, we acquire the approximate solution of the proposed model. The results are graphically presented via MATLAB-17.

Keywords: Caputo fractional derivative, existence and uniqueness, gronwall inequality, Lyapunov theory

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Authors: Dongxue Li, Zhonghua Ning, Yi’na Li, Baoshan Cui, Wasner Daniel, Sebastian Dötterl

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Most of the world's coastal alluvial plains can be significant carbon (C) eservoirs in which upland sediments are deposited and bury former topsoil, thereby contributing to soil C preservation, especially in river-controlled deltas like the Yellow River Delta, China. These deltas are affected by the continuous large amount of sediment transport and strong river dynamics from the upper reaches, which makes the river course in the deltas change frequently. However, the impact of varying river course changes on C stocks in these estuary wetlands is unclear. To investigate this, we drilled five 2 m cores along a sediment deposition sequence of the Yellow River Delta, which shifted its main course flow in the delta several times throughout the 20th century. Covering 80 years of sediment deposition, we explored both soil C stocks and their potential sources, and identified key soil physicochemical and hydrometeorological variables that correlate to C density and deposition rate. Further, the spatiotemporal C distribution and its relationship with these variables was examined. Our results showed that sediments at a soil depth of 200 cm in the main courses of the Yellow River corresponded to deposition ages ranging from 1942 to 1989. The oldest course has the lowest C stocks and showed C-enriched compared with younger courses. Contributions of soil C stemming from fresh particulate organic carbon from deposited upstream sources were significantly higher than local, in-situ vegetation. In addition, the carbon of the oldest and relatively young courses tends to be affected by interaction effects of hydrometeorological and physiochemical varibales, and that of the middle courses tends to be affected by independent variables. Our findings can help prioritize conservation efforts across different river courses and provide quantitative support for global carbon emission reduction by assessing sediment carbon reservoirs.

Keywords: alluvial plains, coastal wetland, core drilling, course diversion, organic carbon, sediment deposition rate, soil deposition

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Authors: Abdul Rashid, Varsha Rokade

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Service Quality within retail units is pivotal for satisfying customers and retaining them. This study on customer perception towards Service Quality variables in Retail aims to identify the dimensions and their impact on customers. An analytical study of the different retail service quality variables was done to understand the relationship between them. The study tries exploring the factors that attract the customers towards the organised and unorganised retail stores in the capital city of Madhya Pradesh, India. As organised retailers are seen as offering similar products in the outlets, improving service quality is seen as critical to ensuring competitive advantage over unorganised retailers. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire on a five-point Likert scale from existing walk-in customers of selected organised and unorganised retail stores in Bhopal City of Madhya Pradesh, India. The data was then analysed by factor analysis using (SPSS) Statistical Package for the Social Sciences especially Percentage analysis, ANOVA and Chi-Square. This study tries to find interrelationship between various Retail Service Quality dimensions, which will help the retailers to identify the steps needed to improve the overall quality of service. Thus, the findings of the study prove to be helpful in understanding the service quality variables which should be considered by organised and unorganised retail stores in Capital city of Madhya Pradesh, India.Also, findings of this empirical research reiterate the point of view that dimensions of Service Quality in Retail play an important role in enhancing customer satisfaction – a sector with high growth potential and tremendous opportunities in rapidly growing economies like India’s. With the introduction of FDI in multi-brand retailing, a large number of international retail players are expected to enter the Indian market, this intern will bring more competition in the retail sector. For benchmarking themselves with global standards, the Indian retailers will have to improve their service quality.

Keywords: organized retail, unorganised retail, retail service quality, service quality dimension

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Authors: Hee Jae Shin, Lee Ku Kwac, In Pyo Cha, Min Sang Lee, Hyun Kyung Yoon, Hong Gun Kim

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In rapid industrial development has increased the demand for high-strength and lightweight materials. Thus, various CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics) with composite materials are being used. The design variables of CFRP are its lamination direction, order, and thickness. Thus, the hardness and strength of CFRP depend much on their design variables. In this paper, the lamination direction of CFRP was used to produce a symmetrical ply [0°/0°, -15°/+15°, -30°/+30°, -45°/+45°, -60°/+60°, -75°/+75°, and 90°/90°] and an asymmetrical ply [0°/15°, 0°/30°, 0°/45°, 0°/60° 0°/75°, and 0°/90°]. The bending flexure stress of the CFRP specimen was evaluated through a bending test. Its thermal property was measured using an infrared camera. The symmetrical specimen and the asymmetrical specimen were analyzed. The results showed that the asymmetrical specimen increased the bending loads according to the increase in the orientation angle; and from 0°, the symmetrical specimen showed a tendency opposite the asymmetrical tendency because the tensile force of fiber differs at the vertical direction of its load. Also, the infrared camera showed that the thermal property had a trend similar to that of the mechanical properties.

Keywords: Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CFRP), bending test, infrared camera, composite

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Authors: Dorit Olenik-Shemesh, Tali Heiman

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Aggressive peer behaviors, particularly bullying and cyberbullying (CB) victimization during adolescence, are strongly and consistently linked to decreased levels of subjective well-being, potentially hindering a healthy and consistent developmental process. These negative effects might be expressed in emotional, physical, and behavioral difficulties. Adolescents victims of bullying/CB present more depressive moods, more loneliness, and more suicidal thoughts, while adolescents who had never been victims of bullying and CB acts present higher levels of well-being. These difficulties in their lives may be both a consequence of and a partial explanation for bullying/CB victimization. Interpersonal behavior styles and psychosocial factors may interact to create a vicious cycle in which adolescents place themselves at risk, which might explain the reduced well-being reported among victims. Yet, to the best of our knowledge, almost no study has examined the effect of two key variables in adolescents' lives, resilience and self-concept, in the relationship between bullying/CB victimization and low levels of psychological well-being among adolescents. Resilience is defined as the individual's capacity of maintaining stable functioning and make adjustments in the face of adversity; a capacity that promotes efficiently coping with environmental stressors and protects from psycho-social difficulties when facing various challenges. Self-concept relates to the way we perceive ourselves, influenced by many forces, including our interactions with the surroundings; a collection of beliefs about oneself. Accordingly, the current study has examined the possible mediating effect of these two main positive personal variables, resilience, and self-concept, through a mediation model analysis. 507 middle school students aged 11–16 (53% boys, 47% girls) completed questionnaires regarding bullying and CB behaviors, psychological well-being, resilience, and self-concept. A mediation model analysis was performed, whereas the hypothesized mediation model was accepted in full. More specifically, it was found that both self-concept and resilience mediated the relationship between bullying/CB victimization and a sense of well-being. High levels of both variables might buffer against a potential decrease in well-being associated with youth bullying/CB victimization. No gender differences were found, except a small stronger effect of resilience on well-being for boys. The study results suggest focusing on specific personal positive variables when developing youth intervention programs, creating an infrastructure for new programs that address increasing resilience and self-concept in schools and family-school contexts. Such revamped programs could diminish bullying/CB acts and the harmful negative implications for youth well-being. Future studies that will incorporate longitudinal data may further deepen the understanding of these examined relationships.

Keywords: adolescents, well being, bullying/CB victimization, resilience, self-concept

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Authors: Alessandra Marcelletti, Giovanni Trovato

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Corruption in public offices is found to be the reflection of country-specific features, however, the exact magnitude and the statistical significance of its determinants effect has not yet been identified. The paper aims to propose an estimation method to measure the impact of country fundamentals on corruption, showing that covariates could differently affect the extent of corruption across countries. Thus, we exploit a model able to take into account different factors affecting the incentive to ask or to be asked for a bribe, coherently with the use of the Corruption Perception Index. We assume that discordant results achieved in literature may be explained by omitted hidden factors affecting the agents' decision process. Moreover, assuming homogeneous covariates effect may lead to unreliable conclusions since the country-specific environment is not accounted for. We apply a Finite Mixture Model with concomitant variables to 129 countries from 1995 to 2006, accounting for the impact of the initial conditions in the socio-economic structure on the corruption patterns. Our findings confirm the hypothesis of the decision process of accepting or asking for a bribe varies with specific country fundamental features.

Keywords: Corruption, Finite Mixture Models, Concomitant Variables, Countries Classification

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, random dither, quantization

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Authors: Pontsho E. Tseke, Phatu W. Mashela

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Climate-smart agriculture dictates that underusilised indigenous plant, which served as food for local marginalized communities, be assessed for introduction into mainstream agriculture. Most of the underutilised indigenous plants had survived adverse conditions in the wild; with limited information on how the interact with most abiotic and biotic factors. Cucumis myriocarpus leafy vegetable has nutritional, pharmacological and industrial applications, with limited information on how it interacts with effective microorganisms. The objective of this study was to determine the effects vesicular arbuscular mycorrhiza (VAM) on the growth of C. myriocarpus indigenous leafy vegetable under greenhouse conditions. Four-weeks-old seedlings of C. myriocarpus were transplanted into 20-cm-diameter plastic pots. Two weeks after transplanting, VAM was applied at 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 g Biocult-VAM plant. At 56 days after treatments, plant growth variables of C. myriocarpus with increase Biocult-VAM levels exhibited positive quadratic relations. Plant variables and increasing concentrations of salinity exhibited positive quadric relations, with 95 to 99% associations. Inclusion, Biocult-VAM can be used in sustainable production of C. myriocarpus for functional food security.

Keywords: abiotic, biotic, rhizasphere, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Oluwasanmi Teniola, Abraham Adeleke, Ademola Ibitoye, Moshood Shitu

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To establish an economical and efficient process for the recovery of gold metal from refractory gold ore obtained from Esperando axis of Osun state Nigeria, the adsorption of gold (III) from aqua reqia leached solution of the ore using bagasse nanoparticles has been studied under various experimental variables using batch technique. The extraction percentage of gold (III) on the prepared bagasse nanoparticles was determined from its distribution coefficients as a function of solution pH, contact time, adsorbent, adsorbate concentrations, and temperature. The rate of adsorption of gold (III) on the prepared bagasse nanoparticles is dependent on pH, metal concentration, amount of adsorbate, stirring rate, and temperature. The adsorption data obtained fit into the Langmuir and Freundlich equations. Three different temperatures were used to determine the thermodynamic parameters of the adsorption of gold (III) on bagasse nanoparticles. The heat of adsorption was measured to be a positive value ΔHo = +51.23kJ/mol, which serves as an indication that the adsorption of gold (III) on bagasse nanoparticles is endothermic. Also, the negative value of ΔGo = -0.6205 kJ/mol at 318K shows the spontaneity of the process. As the temperature was increased, the value of ΔGo becomes more negative, indicating that an increase in temperature favors the adsorption process. With the application of optimal adsorption variables, the adsorption capacity of gold was 0.78 mg/g of the adsorbent, out of which 0.70 mg of gold was desorbed with 0.1 % thiourea solution.

Keywords: adsorption, bagasse, extraction, nanoparticles, recovery

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

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Authors: Idris Haruna Muhammad, Okorie Austine Uche

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This paper presents a study on reliability of shear connector exposed to fire situation in accordance with Eurocode 4. The reliability analysis i reliability analysis is based on First Order Second Moment Integration Technique (FOSMIT) using FORM 5. Performance functions for shear connector are derived for normal and under fire condition and their implied safety levels are evaluated. Four (4) design variables which include ultimate tensile strength, diameter of the stud, temperature and span of the steel beam are treated as random variables with their statistical characteristic adopted from literature. Results show that for normal condition the β – value decrease from 7.95 to 5.43 which show it is conservative in safety level for normal condition. Under fire condition, β – value decrease from 2.88 to – 0.32 with corresponding load ratio of 0.2 to 1.2. It was also shown from sensitivity assessment, that the temperature and span of the beam decrease with increase in their β – values while ultimate tensile strength and diameter of the stud increase with increase in their β – values for a given load ratio of 0.2 to 1.2.

Keywords: Composite steel beam, Fire condition, Shear stud, Sensitivity study

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Authors: Husain A. Murad, Ali A. Dashti, Ali Al-Kandari

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The outbreak of Coronavirus during the Spring semester of 2020 brought new challenges for the teaching of vocational mass communication courses at universities in Kuwait. Using the Media Richness Theory (MRT), this study examines the response of 252 university students on mass communication programs. A questionnaire regarding their perceptions and preferences concerning modes of instruction on vocational courses online, focusing on the four factors of MRT: immediacy of feedback, capacity to include personal focus, conveyance of multiple cues, and variety of language. The outcomes show that immediacy of feedback predicted all criterion variables: suitability of distance learning (DL) for teaching vocational courses, sentiments of students toward DL, perceptions of easiness of evaluation of DL coursework, and the possibility of retaking DL courses. Capacity to include personal focus was another positive predictor of the criterion variables. It predicted students’ sentiments toward DL and the possibility of retaking DL courses. The outcomes are discussed in relation to implications for using DL, as well as constructing an agenda for DL research.

Keywords: distance learning, media richness theory, traditional learning, vocational media courses

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Authors: Shekoufeh Behdad, Amirhossein Yadegari, Leila Ghodrati, Saman Yadegari

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Context: Preoperative anxiety is a common psychological reaction experienced by all patients undergoing surgery. It can have negative effects on the patient's well-being and even impact surgical outcomes. Therefore, finding effective interventions to reduce preoperative anxiety is important in improving patient care. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare the effects of oral administration of zaleplon (5 mg) and alprazolam (0.5 mg) on preoperative anxiety levels in women undergoing gynecological abdominal surgery. Methodology: This study is a double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted after receiving approval from the university's ethics committee and obtaining written informed consent from the patients. The night before the surgery, patients were randomly assigned to receive either 0.5 mg of alprazolam or 5 mg of zaleplon orally. Anxiety levels, measured using a 10-cm visual analog scale, and hemodynamic variables (blood pressure and heart rate) were assessed before drug administration and on the morning of the operation after the patient entered the pre-operation room. Findings: The study found that there were no significant differences in mean anxiety levels or hemodynamic variables before and after administration of either drug in both groups (P value > 0.05). This suggests that both 0.5 mg of alprazolam and 5 mg of zaleplon effectively reduce preoperative anxiety in women undergoing abdominal surgery without serious side effects. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the understanding of the effectiveness of alprazolam and zaleplon in reducing preoperative anxiety. It adds to the existing literature on pharmacological interventions for anxiety management, specifically in the context of gynecological abdominal surgery. Data Collection: Data for this study were collected through the assessment of anxiety levels using a visual analog scale and measuring hemodynamic variables, including systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressures, as well as heart rate. These measurements were taken before drug administration and on the morning of the surgery. Analysis Procedures: Statistical analysis was performed to compare the mean anxiety levels and hemodynamic variables before and after drug administration in the two groups. The significance of the differences was determined using appropriate statistical tests. Questions Addressed: This study aimed to answer the question of whether there are differences in the effects of alprazolam and zaleplon on preoperative anxiety levels in women undergoing gynecological abdominal surgery. Conclusion: The oral administration of both 0.5 mg of alprazolam and 5 mg of zaleplon the night before surgery effectively reduces preoperative anxiety in women undergoing abdominal surgery. These findings have important implications for the management of preoperative anxiety and can contribute to improving the overall surgical experience for patients.

Keywords: zaleplon, alprazolam, premedication, abdominal surgery

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Authors: F. L. Motta, M. H. A. Santana

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Humic Acids (HA) were produced by a Trichoderma viride strain under submerged fermentation in a medium based on the oil palm Empty Fruit Bunch (EFB) and the main variables of the process were optimized by using response surface methodology. A temperature of 40°C and concentrations of 50g/L EFB, 5.7g/L potato peptone and 0.11g/L (NH4)2SO4 were the optimum levels of the variables that maximize the HA production, within the physicochemical and biological limits of the process. The optimized conditions led to an experimental HA concentration of 428.4±17.5 mg/L, which validated the prediction from the statistical model of 412.0mg/L. This optimization increased about 7–fold the HA production previously reported in the literature. Additionally, the time profiles of HA production and fungal growth confirmed our previous findings that HA production preferably occurs during fungal sporulation. The present study demonstrated that T. viride successfully produced HA via the submerged fermentation of EFB and the process parameters were successfully optimized using a statistics-based response surface model. To the best of our knowledge, the present work is the first report on the optimization of HA production from EFB by a biotechnological process, whose feasibility was only pointed out in previous works.

Keywords: empty fruit bunch, humic acids, submerged fermentation, Trichoderma viride

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Authors: Mingyue Sheng, Basil Sharp

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from national transport account for the largest share of emissions from energy use in New Zealand. Whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship exists between environmental degradation indicators from the transport sector and economic growth in New Zealand remains unclear. This paper aims at exploring the causality relationship between CO₂ emissions from the transport sector, fossil fuel consumption, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in New Zealand, using annual data for the period 1977 to 2013. First, conventional unit root tests (Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests), and a unit root test with the breakpoint (Zivot-Andrews test) are employed to examine the stationarity of the variables. Second, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for co-integration, followed by Granger causality investigated causality among the variables. Empirical results of the study reveal that, in the short run, there is a unidirectional causality between economic growth and transport CO₂ emissions with direction from economic growth to transport CO₂ emissions, as well as a bidirectional causality from transport CO₂ emissions to road energy consumption.

Keywords: economic growth, transport carbon dioxide emissions, environmental Kuznets curve, causality

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Authors: Merih Welay Welesilassie, Marianne Nikolov

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Research into second and foreign language (L2) acquisitions has demonstrated that L2 anxiety, perceived proficiency, and L2 willingness to communicate (L2WTC) profoundly impact language learning outcomes. However, the complex interplay between these variables has yet to be fully explored, as these factors are dynamic and context-specific and can vary across different learners and learning environments. This study, therefore, utilized a cross-sectional quantitative survey research design to scrutinise the causal relationships between L2 anxiety, English proficiency, and L2WTC of 609 Ethiopian preparatory school students. The model for the L2WTC, both inside and outside the classroom, has been expanded to include an additional sub-scale known as the L2WTC in a digital setting. Moreover, in contrast to the commonly recognised debilitative-focused L2 anxiety, the construct of L2 anxiety has been divided into facilitative and debilitative anxiety. This method allows to measure not only the presence or absence of anxiety but also evaluate if anxiety helps or hinders the L2 learning experience. A self-assessment proficiency measure was also developed specifically for Ethiopian high school students. The study treated facilitative and debilitative anxiety as independent variables while considering self-assessed English proficiency and L2WTC in the classroom, outside the classroom, and in digital settings as dependent variables. Additionally, self-assessed English proficiency was used as an independent variable to predict L2WTC in these three settings. The proposed model, including these variables, was tested using structural equation modelling (SEM). According to the descriptive analysis, the mean scores of L2WTC in the three settings were generally low, ranging from 2.30 to 2.84. Debilitative anxiety casts a shadow on the positive aspects of anxiety. Self-assessed English proficiency was also too low. According to SEM, debilitative anxiety displayed a statistically significant negative impact on L2WTC inside the classroom, outside the classroom, in digital settings, and in self-assessed levels of English proficiency. In contrast, facilitative anxiety was found to positively contribute to L2WTC outside the classroom, in digital settings, and in self-assessed English proficiency. Self-assessed English proficiency made a statistically significant and positive contribution to L2WTC within the classroom, outside the classroom, and in digital contexts. L2WTC inside the classroom was found to positively contribute to L2WTC outside the classrooms and in digital contexts. The findings were systematically compared with existing studies, and the pedagogical implications, limitations, and potential avenues for future research were elucidated. The outcomes of the study have the potential to significantly contribute to the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge about improving English education, learning, and communication not only in Ethiopia but also in similar EFL contexts, thereby providing valuable insights for educators, researchers, and policymakers.

Keywords: debilitative anxiety, facilitative anxiety, L2 willingness to communicate, self-assessed English proficiency

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Authors: Ana Julia C. Kfouri

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A prerequisite of any building design is to provide security to the users, taking the climate and its physical and physical-geometrical variables into account. It is also important to highlight the relevance of the right material elements, which arise between the person and the agent, and must provide improved thermal comfort conditions and low environmental impact. Furthermore, technology is constantly advancing, as well as computational simulations for projects, and they should be used to develop sustainable building and to provide higher quality of life for its users. In relation to comfort, the more satisfied the building users are, the better their intellectual performance will be. Based on that, the study of thermal comfort in educational buildings is of relative relevance, since the thermal characteristics in these environments are of vital importance to all users. Moreover, educational buildings are large constructions and when they are poorly planned and executed they have negative impacts to the surrounding environment, as well as to the user satisfaction, throughout its whole life cycle. In this line of thought, to evaluate university classroom conditions, it was accomplished a detailed case study on the thermal comfort situation at Federal University of Parana (UFPR). The main goal of the study is to perform a thermal analysis in three classrooms at UFPR, in order to address the subjective and physical variables that influence thermal comfort inside the classroom. For the assessment of the subjective components, a questionnaire was applied in order to evaluate the reference for the local thermal conditions. Regarding the physical variables, it was carried out on-site measurements, which consist of performing measurements of air temperature and air humidity, both inside and outside the building, as well as meteorological variables, such as wind speed and direction, solar radiation and rainfall, collected from a weather station. Then, a computer simulation based on results from the EnergyPlus software to reproduce air temperature and air humidity values of the three classrooms studied was conducted. The EnergyPlus outputs were analyzed and compared with the on-site measurement results to be possible to come out with a conclusion related to the local thermal conditions. The methodological approach included in the study allowed a distinct perspective in an educational building to better understand the classroom thermal performance, as well as the reason of such behavior. Finally, the study induces a reflection about the importance of thermal comfort for educational buildings and propose thermal alternatives for future projects, as well as a discussion about the significant impact of using computer simulation on engineering solutions, in order to improve the thermal performance of UFPR’s buildings.

Keywords: computer simulation, educational buildings, EnergyPlus, humidity, temperature, thermal comfort

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Authors: Dalal Tarfaoui, Salah Zkim

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Today, environmental sustainability is everyone’s concern as it contributes in many aspects to a country's development. Morocco is also aware of the increasing threats to its natural resources. Accordingly, many projects and research have been discussed pointing mainly to water security, pollution, desertification, and land degradation, but few studies bothered to dig into the human demeanor to disclose its ecological behavior. Human behavior is accountable for environment deterioration in the first place, but we keep fighting the symptoms instead of limiting the root causes. In the conceptual framework highlighted in the present article, semi-structured interviews have been conducted using a grounded theory approach. Initially this study will serve as a pilot study and a cornerstone to approve a bigger project now in progress. Beyond the existing general ecological measures (GEM), this study has chosen the grounded theory approach to bring out firsthand insights, and probe to which extent an ecological dimension exists in Morocco as a developing country. The discourse of the ecological behavior within the Moroccan context is seen in more realist, social, and community philosophy. The study has revealed an appreciative ecological behavior that is unfortunately repressed by variables beyond people’s control, which would prevent the people’s environmental good intentions to be translated into real ecological actions.

Keywords: ecological behavior, ecological dimension, variables beyond people’s control, Morocco

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Authors: Chuyuan Wang, Nayan Khare, Lily Villa, Patricia Solis, Elizabeth A. Wentz

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Maricopa County, Arizona, has a semi-arid hot desert climate that is one of the hottest regions in the United States. The exacerbated urban heat island (UHI) effect caused by rapid urbanization has made the urban area even hotter than the rural surroundings. The Phoenix metropolitan area experiences extremely high temperatures in the summer from June to September that can reach the daily highest of 120 °F (48.9 °C). Morbidity and mortality due to the environmental heat is, therefore, a significant public health issue in Maricopa County, especially because it is largely preventable. Public records from the Maricopa County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) revealed that between 2012 and 2016, there were 10,825 incidents of heat-related morbidity incidents, 267 outdoor environmental heat deaths, and 173 indoor heat-related deaths. A lot of research has examined heat-related death and its contributing factors around the world, but little has been done regarding heat-related morbidity issues, especially for regions that are naturally hot in the summer. The objective of this study is to examine the demographic, socio-economic, housing, and environmental factors that contribute to heat-related morbidity in Maricopa County. We obtained heat-related morbidity data between 2012 and 2016 at census tract level from MCDPH. Demographic, socio-economic, and housing variables were derived using 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-year estimate from the U.S. Census. Remotely sensed Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI satellite images and Level-1 products were acquired for all the summer months (June to September) from 2012 and 2016. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2016 percent tree canopy and percent developed imperviousness data were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We used ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis to examine the empirical relationship between all the independent variables and heat-related morbidity rate. Results showed that higher morbidity rates are found in census tracts with higher values in population aged 65 and older, population under poverty, disability, no vehicle ownership, white non-Hispanic, population with less than high school degree, land surface temperature, and surface reflectance, but lower values in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and housing occupancy. The regression model can be used to explain up to 59.4% of total variation of heat-related morbidity in Maricopa County. The multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) technique was then used to examine the spatially varying relationships between heat-related morbidity rate and all the significant independent variables. The R-squared value of the MGWR model increased to 0.691, that shows a significant improvement in goodness-of-fit than the global OLS model, which means that spatial heterogeneity of some independent variables is another important factor that influences the relationship with heat-related morbidity in Maricopa County. Among these variables, population aged 65 and older, the Hispanic population, disability, vehicle ownership, and housing occupancy have much stronger local effects than other variables.

Keywords: census, empirical modeling, heat-related morbidity, spatial analysis

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Authors: Dheyaa W. Abbood, Rafa H. AL-Suhaili, May S. Saleh

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A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs length sand their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy.The optimization carried out subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure against the uplift pressure force and sufficient protection length at the downstream side of the structure to overcome an excessive exit gradient. The Geo-studios oft ware, was used to analyze 1200 different cases. For each case the length of protection and volume of structure required to satisfy the safety factors mentioned previously were estimated. An ANN model was developed and verified using these cases input-output sets as its data base. A MatLAB code was written to perform a genetic algorithm optimization modeling coupled with this ANN model using a formulated optimization model. A sensitivity analysis was done for selecting the cross-over probability, the mutation probability and level ,the number of population, the position of the crossover and the weights distribution for all the terms of the objective function. Results indicate that the most factor that affects the optimum solution is the number of population required. The minimum value that gives stable global optimum solution of this parameters is (30000) while other variables have little effect on the optimum solution.

Keywords: inclined cutoff, optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks, geo-studio, uplift pressure, exit gradient, factor of safety

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Authors: T. Qasim, M. Obeidat, S. Al-Sharairi

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The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of the excessive use of smartphones. Smartphones have enormous effects on the human body in that some musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and health problems might evolve. These days, there is a wide use of the smartphones among all age groups of society, thus, the focus on smartphone effects on human behavior and health, especially on the young and elderly people, becomes a crucial issue. This study was conducted in Jordan on smartphone users for different genders and ages, by conducting a survey to collect data related to the symptoms and MSDs that are resulted from the excessive use of smartphones. A total of 357 responses were used in the analysis. The main related symptoms were numbness, fingers pain, and pain in arm, all linked to age and gender for comparative reasons. A statistical analysis was performed to find the effects of extensive usage of a smartphone for long periods of time on the human body. Results show that the significant variables were the vision problems and the time spent when using the smartphone that cause vision problems. Other variables including age of user and ear problems due to the use of the headsets were found to be a border line significant.

Keywords: smart phone, age group, musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), health problems

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Authors: Nemanja Kidzin, Danka Puric

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Recently, the field of personality change has received an increasing amount of attention. Previously under-researched variables, such as the intention to change or taking on new social roles (in a working environment, education, family, etc.), have been shown to be relevant for personality change. Following this line of research, our study aimed to determine whether the process of acting can bring about personality changes in students of acting and, if yes, in which way. We hypothesized that there will be a significant difference between self-reported personality traits of students acting at the beginning and the end of preparing for a role. Additionally, as potential moderator variables, we measured the reported personality traits of the roles the students were acting, as well as empathy, disintegration, and years of formal education. The sample (N = 47) was composed of students of acting from the Faculty of Dramatic Arts (first- to fourth-year) and the Faculty of Modern Arts (first-year students only). Participants' mean age was 20.2 (SD = 1.47), and there were 64% of females. The procedure included two waves of testing (T1 at the beginning and T2 at the end of the semester), and students’ acting exercises and character immersion comprised the pseudo-experimental procedure. Students’ personality traits (HEXACO-60, self-report version), empathy (Questionnaire of Cognitive and Affective Empathy, QCAE), and disintegration (DELTA9, 10-item version) were measured at both T1 and T2, while the personality of the role (HEXACO-60 observer version) was measured at T2. Responses to all instruments were given on a 5-point Likert scale. A series of repeated-measures T-tests showed significant differences in emotionality (t(46) = 2.56, p = 0.014) and conscientiousness (t(46) = -2.39, p = 0.021) between T1 and T2. Moreover, an index of absolute personality change was significantly different from 0 for all traits (range .53 to .34, t(46) = 4.20, p < .001 for the lowest index. The average test-retest correlation for HEXACO traits was 0.57, which is lower than proposed by other similar researches. As for moderator variables, neither the personality of the role nor empathy or disintegration explained the change in students’ personality traits. The magnitude of personality change was the highest in fourth-year students, with no significant differences between the remaining three years of studying. Overall, our results seem to indicate some personality changes in students of acting. However, these changes cannot be unequivocally related to the process of preparing for a role. Further and methodologically stricter research is needed to unravel the role of acting in personality change.

Keywords: theater, personality change, acting, HEXACO

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Authors: Guebli Abdelkader, Reguieg Madani, Belkadi Adel, Sbaa Bouabdellah

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The identification of mechanical variables in the motor performance trajectory has a prominent role in improving skill performance, error-exceeding, it contributes seriously to solving some problems of learning and training. The study aims to highlight the indicators of motor performance for Paralympic athletes during the practicing sports between modelling and between excellence in motor performance, this by taking into account the distinction of athlete practicing with special behavioral skills for the Paralympic athletes. In the study, we relied on the analysis of some previous research of biomechanical performance indicators during some of the events sports (shooting activities in the Paralympic athletics, shooting skill in the wheelchair basketball). The results of the study highlight the distinction of disabled practitioners of sporting events identified in motor performance during practice, by overcoming some physics indicators in human movement, as a lower center of body weight, increase in offset distance, such resistance which requires them to redouble their efforts. However, the results of the study highlighted the strength of the correlation between biomechanical variables of motor performance and the digital level achievement similar to the other practitioners normal.

Keywords: sports, the disabled, motor performance, Paralympic

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