Search results for: model of postural system behavior
27002 Optimization of a Hybrid PV-Diesel Minigrid System: A Case Study of Vimtim-Mubi, Nigeria
Authors: Julius Agaka Yusufu, Tsutomu Dei, Hanif Ibrahim Awal
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This study undertakes the development of an optimal PV-diesel hybrid power system tailored to the specific energy landscape of Vimtim Mubi, Nigeria, utilizing real-world wind speed, solar radiation, and diesel cost data. Employing HOMER simulation, the research meticulously assesses the technical and financial viability of this hybrid configuration. Additionally, a rigorous performance comparison is conducted between the PV-diesel system and the conventional grid-connected alternative, offering crucial insights into the potential advantages and economic feasibility of adopting hybrid renewable energy solutions in regions grappling with energy access and reliability challenges, with implications for sustainable electrification efforts in similar communities worldwide.Keywords: Vimtim-Nigeria, Homer, renewable energy, PV-diesel hybrid system
Procedia PDF Downloads 8527001 Authorization of Commercial Communication Satellite Grounds for Promoting Turkish Data Relay System
Authors: Celal Dudak, Aslı Utku, Burak Yağlioğlu
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Uninterrupted and continuous satellite communication through the whole orbit time is becoming more indispensable every day. Data relay systems are developed and built for various high/low data rate information exchanges like TDRSS of USA and EDRSS of Europe. In these missions, a couple of task-dedicated communication satellites exist. In this regard, for Turkey a data relay system is attempted to be defined exchanging low data rate information (i.e. TTC) for Earth-observing LEO satellites appointing commercial GEO communication satellites all over the world. First, justification of this attempt is given, demonstrating duration enhancements in the link. Discussion of preference of RF communication is, also, given instead of laser communication. Then, preferred communication GEOs – including TURKSAT4A already belonging to Turkey- are given, together with the coverage enhancements through STK simulations and the corresponding link budget. Also, a block diagram of the communication system is given on the LEO satellite.Keywords: communication, GEO satellite, data relay system, coverage
Procedia PDF Downloads 44227000 Leverage Effect for Volatility with Generalized Laplace Error
Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski
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We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models
Procedia PDF Downloads 38526999 Replicating Brain’s Resting State Functional Connectivity Network Using a Multi-Factor Hub-Based Model
Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok
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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.Keywords: functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 15126998 Procyclicality of Leverage: An Empirical Analysis from Turkish Banks
Authors: Emin Avcı, Çiydem Çatak
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The recent economic crisis have shown that procyclicality, which could threaten the stability and growth of the economy, is a major problem of financial and real sector. The term procyclicality refers here the cyclical behavior of banks that lead them to follow the same patterns as the real economy. In this study, leverage which demonstrate how a bank manage its debt, is chosen as bank specific variable to see the effect of changes in it over the economic cycle. The procyclical behavior of Turkish banking sector (commercial, participation, development-investment banks) is tried to explain with analyzing the relationship between leverage and asset growth. On the basis of theoretical explanations, eight different leverage ratios are utilized in eight different panel data models to demonstrate the procyclicality effect of Turkish banks leverage using monthly data covering the 2005-2014 period. It is tested whether there is an increasing (decreasing) trend in the leverage ratio of Turkish banks when there is an enlargement (contraction) in their balance sheet. The major finding of the study indicates that asset growth has a significant effect on all eight leverage ratios. In other words, the leverage of Turkish banks follow a cyclical pattern, which is in line with those of earlier literature.Keywords: banking, economic cycles, leverage, procyclicality
Procedia PDF Downloads 26526997 Education System Development: Challenges and Barriers
Authors: Kumar Vikas
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Education is to be anticipated for Human resource development and then national development. However, in most of the developing countries, due to the inadequacy of resources it is almost unattainable to educate all of their citizens through on-campus teaching. Huge amount of money is necessary to establish the infrastructure for on-campus teaching which is out of the reach of the developing countries. In these circumstances, to educate their huge inhabitants the developing countries are to depend on open learning and distance education system. However, a question still stands: can the educators dissimulate knowledge to the learners smoothly through this new system of education? Some recent research shows that the graduates of the open and distance learning institutions in the developing countries are treated as second-grade graduates. This paper aims to identify the challenges or barriers in the development of distance and Open learning system in India and suggest possible alternatives may be followed to overcome the barriers.Keywords: barriers, distance education, developing countries, motivation, alternative solutions
Procedia PDF Downloads 24826996 Assessment of the Thermal Performance of a Solar Heating System on an Agricultural Greenhouse Microclimate
Authors: Nora Arbaoui, Rachid Tadili
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The substantial increase of areas cultivated under glasshouses compels the use of other natural heating and cooling procedures to make a profit as well as avoid both exorbitant fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. This experimental study is designed to examine the functioning of a solar heating system that will increase positive consequences in terms of both quantity and quality while successfully enhancing greenhouse microclimate during wintertime. Those configurations have been tested in a miniaturized greenhouse simply after having optimized the operating parameters. These were noteworthy results when compared to an unheated witness greenhouse.Keywords: solar system, agricultural greenhouse, heating, cooling, storage, drying
Procedia PDF Downloads 2526995 Development of Fire Douse Vehicle
Authors: Nikhil Verma, Akshay Kant Mishra, Rishabh Rastogi, Bikarama Prasad Yadav
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Emerging fire incidents are the protuberant contributor out turning into life loss, property damage and importantly firefighters. It insinuates that a firefighting and rescue operation of the existing equipment or apparatus and their proficiency is limited, particularly in annihilating firefighting environments. The proposed methodology will help in developing a technology which can be useful in minimizing the risks and losses due to fire. In this paper, design and development of combat mini vehicle comprising of multi-purpose nozzle system is proposed which can target diverse fires simultaneously at distinct time and location. Basically, the system is semi-automated type protection system which can be manoeuvred by controller. Designing of robust vehicle based on semi-automated protection type system is consummated using SolidWorks platform. Concept of developing a robust vehicle will help to fight fires in multiple directions reducing the time required to douse multiple fires.Keywords: fire douse vehicle, multiple fires, multi-purpose nozzle, semi-automated system
Procedia PDF Downloads 12926994 Care at the Intersection of Biomedicine and Traditional Chinese Medicine: Narratives of Integration, Negotiation, and Provision
Authors: Jessica Ding
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The field of global health is currently advocating for a resurgence in the use of traditional medicines to improve people-centered care. Healthcare policies are rapidly changing in response; in China, the increasing presence of TCM in the same spaces as biomedicine has led to a new term: integrative medicine. However, the existence of TCM as a part of integrative medicine creates a pressing paradoxical tension where TCM is both seen as a marginalized system within ‘modern’ hospitals and as a modality worth integrating. Additionally, the impact of such shifts has not been fully explored: the World Health Organization for one focuses only on three angles —practices, products, and practitioners— with regards to traditional medicines. Through ten weeks of fieldwork conducted at an urban hospital in Shanghai, China, this research expands the perspective of existing strategies by looking at integrative care through a fourth lens: patients and families. The understanding of self-care, health-seeking behavior, and non-professional caregiving structures are critical to grasping the significance of traditional medicine for people-centered care. Indeed, those individual and informal health care expectations align with the very spaces and needs that traditional medicine has filled before such ideas of integration. It specifically looks at this issue via three processes that operationalize experiences of care: (1) how aspects of TCM are valued within integrative medicine, (2) how negotiations of care occur between patients and doctors, and (3) how 'good quality' caregiving presents in integrative clinical spaces. This research hopes to lend insight into how culturally embedded traditions, bureaucratic and institutional rationalities, and social patterns of health-seeking behavior influence care to shape illness experiences at the intersection of two medical modalities. This analysis of patients’ clinical and illness experiences serves to enrich the narratives of integrative medical care’s ability to provide patient-centered care to determine how international policies are realized at the individual level. This anthropological study of the integration of Traditional Chinese medicine in local contexts can reveal the extent to which global strategies, as promoted by the WHO and the Chinese government actually align with the expectations and perspectives of patients receiving care. Ultimately, this ethnographic analysis of a local Chinese context hopes to inform global policies regarding the future use and integration of traditional medicines.Keywords: emergent systems, global health, integrative medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, TCM
Procedia PDF Downloads 14126993 Assessment of Agricultural Damage under Different Simulated Flood Conditions
Authors: M. N. Kadir, M. M. H. Oliver, T. Naher
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The study assesses the areal extent of riverine flood in the flood-prone area of Faridpur District of Bangladesh using hydrological model and Geographic Information System (GIS). In the context of preparing the inundation map, flood frequency analysis was carried out to assess flooding for different flood magnitudes. Flood inundation maps were prepared based on DEM, and discharge at the river using Delft-3D model. LANDSAT satellite images have been used to develop a land cover map in the study area. The land cover map was used for mapping of cropland area. By incorporating the inundation maps on the land cover map, agricultural damage was assessed. Present monetary values of crop damage were collected through field survey from actual flood of the study area. Two different inundation maps were produced from the model for the year 2000 and 2016. In the year 2000, the floods began in the month of July, whereas in the case of the year 2016 is started in August. Under both cases, most of the areas were found to have been flooded in the month of September followed by flood recession. In order to prepare the land cover maps, four categories of LCs were considered viz., cropland, water body, trees, and rivers. Among the 755791 acres area of Faridpur District, the croplands were categorized to be 334,589 acres, followed by water bodies (279900 acres), trees (101930 acres) and rivers 39372 (acres). Damage assessment data revealed that 40% of the total cropland area had been affected by the flood in the year 2000, whereas only 19% area was affected by the 2016 flood. The study concluded that September is the critical month for cropland protection since the highest flood is expected at this time of the year in Faridpur. The northwestern and the southwestern part of the district was categorized as most vulnerable to flooding.Keywords: agricultural damage, Delft-3d, flood management, land cover map
Procedia PDF Downloads 10226992 From the Sharing Economy to Social Manufacturing: Analyzing Collaborative Service Networks in the Manufacturing Domain
Authors: Babak Mohajeri
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In recent years, the conventional business model of ownership has been changed towards accessibility in a variety of markets. Two trends can be observed in the evolution of this rental-like business model. Firstly, the technological development that enables the emergence of new business models. These new business models increasingly become agile and flexible. For example Spotify, an online music stream company provides consumers access to over millions of music tracks, conveniently through the smartphone, tablet or computer. Similarly, Car2Go, the car sharing company accesses its members with flexible and nearby sharing cars. The second trend is the increasing communication and connections via social networks. This trend enables a shift to peer-to-peer accessibility based business models. Conventionally, companies provide access for their customers to own companies products or services. In peer-to-peer model, nonetheless, companies facilitate access and connection across their customers to use other customers owned property or skills, competencies or services .The is so-called the sharing economy business model. The aim of this study is to investigate into a new and emerging type of the sharing economy model in which role of customers and service providers may dramatically change. This new model is called Collaborative Service Networks. We propose a mechanism for Collaborative Service Networks business model. Uber and Airbnb, two successful growing companies, have been selected for our case studies and their business models are analyzed. Finally, we study the emergence of the collaborative service networks in the manufacturing domain. Our finding results to a new manufacturing paradigm called social manufacturing.Keywords: sharing economy, collaborative service networks, social manufacturing, manufacturing development
Procedia PDF Downloads 31726991 Short and Long Crack Growth Behavior in Ferrite Bainite Dual Phase Steels
Authors: Ashok Kumar, Shiv Brat Singh, Kalyan Kumar Ray
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There is growing awareness to design steels against fatigue damage Ferrite martensite dual-phase steels are known to exhibit favourable mechanical properties like good strength, ductility, toughness, continuous yielding, and high work hardening rate. However, dual-phase steels containing bainite as second phase are potential alternatives for ferrite martensite steels for certain applications where good fatigue property is required. Fatigue properties of dual phase steels are popularly assessed by the nature of variation of crack growth rate (da/dN) with stress intensity factor range (∆K), and the magnitude of fatigue threshold (∆Kth) for long cracks. There exists an increased emphasis to understand not only the long crack fatigue behavior but also short crack growth behavior of ferrite bainite dual phase steels. The major objective of this report is to examine the influence of microstructures on the short and long crack growth behavior of a series of developed dual-phase steels with varying amounts of bainite and. Three low carbon steels containing Nb, Cr and Mo as microalloying elements steels were selected for making ferrite-bainite dual-phase microstructures by suitable heat treatments. The heat treatment consisted of austenitizing the steel at 1100°C for 20 min, cooling at different rates in air prior to soaking these in a salt bath at 500°C for one hour, and finally quenching in water. Tensile tests were carried out on 25 mm gauge length specimens with 5 mm diameter using nominal strain rate 0.6x10⁻³ s⁻¹ at room temperature. Fatigue crack growth studies were made on a recently developed specimen configuration using a rotating bending machine. The crack growth was monitored by interrupting the test and observing the specimens under an optical microscope connected to an Image analyzer. The estimated crack lengths (a) at varying number of cycles (N) in different fatigue experiments were analyzed to obtain log da/dN vs. log °∆K curves for determining ∆Kthsc. The microstructural features of these steels have been characterized and their influence on the near threshold crack growth has been examined. This investigation, in brief, involves (i) the estimation of ∆Kthsc and (ii) the examination of the influence of microstructure on short and long crack fatigue threshold. The maximum fatigue threshold values obtained from short crack growth experiments on various specimens of dual-phase steels containing different amounts of bainite are found to increase with increasing bainite content in all the investigated steels. The variations of fatigue behavior of the selected steel samples have been explained with the consideration of varying amounts of the constituent phases and their interactions with the generated microstructures during cyclic loading. Quantitative estimation of the different types of fatigue crack paths indicates that the propensity of a crack to pass through the interfaces depends on the relative amount of the microstructural constituents. The fatigue crack path is found to be predominantly intra-granular except for the ones containing > 70% bainite in which it is predominantly inter-granular.Keywords: bainite, dual phase steel, fatigue crack growth rate, long crack fatigue threshold, short crack fatigue threshold
Procedia PDF Downloads 20426990 Sync Consensus Algorithm: Trying to Reach an Agreement at Full Speed
Authors: Yuri Zinchenko
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Recently, distributed storage systems have been used more and more in various aspects of everyday life. They provide such necessary properties as Scalability, Fault Tolerance, Durability, and others. At the same time, not only reliable but also fast data storage remains one of the most pressing issues in this area. That brings us to the consensus algorithm as one of the most important components that has a great impact on the functionality of a distributed system. This paper is the result of an analysis of several well-known consensus algorithms, such as Paxos and Raft. The algorithm it offers, called Sync, promotes, but does not insist on simultaneous writing to the nodes (which positively affects the overall writing speed) and tries to minimize the system's inactive time. This allows nodes to reach agreement on the system state in a shorter period, which is a critical factor for distributed systems. Also when developing Sync, a lot of attention was paid to such criteria as simplicity and intuitiveness, the importance of which is difficult to overestimate.Keywords: sync, consensus algorithm, distributed system, leader-based, synchronization.
Procedia PDF Downloads 6226989 Volatility Model with Markov Regime Switching to Forecast Baht/USD
Authors: Nop Sopipan
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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD
Procedia PDF Downloads 30226988 Cuckoo Search Optimization for Black Scholes Option Pricing
Authors: Manas Shah
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Black Scholes option pricing model is one of the most important concepts in modern world of computational finance. However, its practical use can be challenging as one of the input parameters must be estimated; implied volatility of the underlying security. The more precisely these values are estimated, the more accurate their corresponding estimates of theoretical option prices would be. Here, we present a novel model based on Cuckoo Search Optimization (CS) which finds more precise estimates of implied volatility than Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA).Keywords: black scholes model, cuckoo search optimization, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 45326987 Consequences of Inadequate Funding in Nigerian Educational System
Authors: Sylvia Nkiru Ogbuoji
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This paper discussed the consequences of inadequate funding in Nigerian education system. It briefly explained the meaning of education in relation to the context and identified various ways education in Nigeria can be funded. It highlighted some of the consequences of inadequate funding education system to include: Inadequate facilitates for teaching and learning, western brain drain, unemployment, crises of poverty, low staff morale it. Finally, some recommendations were put forward, the government should improve the annual budget allocation to education, in order to achieve educational objective, also government should monitor the utilization of allocated funds to minimize embezzlement.Keywords: consequences, corruption, education, funding
Procedia PDF Downloads 45226986 Domain Driven Design vs Soft Domain Driven Design Frameworks
Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade
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This paper presents and compares the SSDDD “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” to DDD “Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft system approach of information systems development. The framework use SSM as a guiding methodology within which we have embedded a sequence of design tasks based on the UML leading to the implementation of a software system using the Naked Objects framework. This framework has been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, a comparison between SSDDD and DDD is presented in this paper, to show how SSDDD improved DDD as an approach to modelling and implementing business domain perspectives for Information Systems Development. The comparison process, the results, and the improvements are presented in the following sections of this paper.Keywords: domain-driven design, soft domain-driven design, naked objects, soft language
Procedia PDF Downloads 29826985 Advanced Oxidation Processes as a Pre-oxidation Step for Biological Treatment of Leachate from Technical Landfills
Authors: Ala Abdessemed, Mohamed Seddik Oussama Belahmadi, Nabil Charchar, Abdefettah Gherib, Bradai Fares, Boussadia Chouaib Nour El-Islem
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Algerian cities are confronted with large quantities of waste generated by the disposal of household and similar residues in technical landfills (CET), such as the one in the location of Batna. The interaction between waste components and incoming water generates leachates rich in organic matter and trace elements, which require treatment before discharge. The aim of this study was to propose an effective process for treating the leachates, which were subjected to an initial chemical treatment using the (H₂O₂/UV) system. Optimal treatment conditions were determined at [H₂O₂] of 0.3 M and pH of 8.6. Next, two hybrid biological treatment systems were applied: hybrid system I (H₂O₂/UV/bacteria) and hybrid system II (H₂O₂/UV/bacteria/microalgae). The three processes resulted in the following degradation rates, expressed in terms of total organic carbon (TOC) 27.4% for the (H₂O₂/UV) system; 58.1% for the hybrid system I (H₂O₂/UV/Bacteria); 67.86% for the hybrid system II (H₂O₂/UV/Bacteria/Microalgae). This study demonstrates that a hybrid approach combining advanced oxidation processes and biological treatments is a highly effective alternative to achieve satisfactory treatment.Keywords: leachate, landfill, advanced oxidation processes, biological treatment, bacteria, microalgae, total organic carbon
Procedia PDF Downloads 7026984 Experimental Study of Exhaust Muffler System for Direct-Injection Gasoline Engine
Authors: Abdallah F. Abd El-Mohsen, Ahmed A. Abdelsamee, Nouby M. Ghazaly
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Engine exhaust noise is considered one of the largest sources of vehicle exterior noise. Further reduction of noise from the vehicle exhaust system will be required, as the vehicle exterior noise regulations become stricter. Therefore, the present study has been carried out to illustrate the role of engine operating parameters and exhaust system construction factors on exhaust noise emitted. The measurements carried out using different exhaust systems, which are mainly used in today’s vehicle. The effect of engine speed on the spectra level of exhaust noise is recorded at engine speeds of 900 rpm, 1800 rpm, 2700, rpm 3600 rpm and 4500 rpm. The results indicate that the increase of engine speed causes a significant increase in the spectrum level of exhaust noise. The increase in the number of the outlet of the expansion chamber also reduces the overall level of exhaust noise.Keywords: exhaust system, expansion chamber, engine speed, spectra
Procedia PDF Downloads 16726983 Prioritizing Quality Dimensions in ‘Servitised’ Business through AHP
Authors: Mohita Gangwar Sharma
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Different factors are compelling manufacturers to move towards the phenomenon of servitization i.e. when firms go beyond giving support to the customers in operating the equipment. The challenges that are being faced in this transition by the manufacturing firms from being a product provider to a product- service provider are multipronged. Product-Service Systems (PSS) lies in between the pure-product and pure-service continuum. Through this study, we wish to understand the dimensions of ‘PSS-quality’. We draw upon the quality literature for both the product and services and through an expert survey for a specific transportation sector using analytical hierarchical process (AHP) derive a conceptual model that can be used as a comprehensive measurement tool for PSS offerings.Keywords: servitisation, quality, product-service system, AHP
Procedia PDF Downloads 30826982 Mueller Matrix Polarimetry for Analysis Scattering Biological Fluid Media
Authors: S. Cherif, A. Medjahed, M. Bouafia, A. Manallah
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A light wave is characterized by 4 characteristics: its amplitude, its frequency, its phase and the direction of polarization of its luminous vector (the electric field). It is in this last characteristic that we will be interested. The polarization of the light was introduced in order to describe the vectorial behavior of the light; it describes the way in which the electric field evolves in a point of space. Our work consists in studying diffusing mediums. Different types of biological fluids were selected to study the evolution of each with increasing scattering power of the medium, and in the same time to make a comparison between them. When crossing these mediums, the light undergoes modifications and/or deterioration of its initial state of polarization. This phenomenon is related to the properties of the medium, the idea is to compare the characteristics of the entering and outgoing light from the studied medium by a white light. The advantage of this model is that it is experimentally accessible workable intensity measurements with CCD sensors and allows operation in 2D. The latter information is used to discriminate some physical properties of the studied areas. We chose four types of milk to study the evolution of each with increasing scattering power of the medium.Keywords: light polarization, Mueller matrix, Mueller images, diffusing medium, milk
Procedia PDF Downloads 33026981 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest
Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika
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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 10426980 Assessment of Impact of Urbanization in Drainage Urban Systems, Cali-Colombia
Authors: A. Caicedo Padilla, J. Zambrano Nájera
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Cali, the capital of Valle del Cauca and the second city of Colombia, is located in the Cauca River Valley between the Western and Central Cordillera that is South West of the country. The topography of the city is mainly flat, but it is possibly to find mountains in the west. The city has increased urbanization during XX century, especially since 1958 when started a rapid growth due to migration of people from other parts of the region. Much of that population has settled in eastern of Cali, an area originally intended for cane cultivation and a zone of flood from Cauca River and its tributaries. Due to the unplanned migration, settling was inadequate and produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Sewerage networks capacity were not enough for this higher runoff volume, because in first term they were not adequately designed and built, causing its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods generating considerable effects on the economy and development of normal activities in Cali. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization on hydrology of watersheds with very low slopes. The project aims to identify changes in natural drainage patterns caused by the changes made on landscape. From the identification of such modifications it will be defined the most critical areas due to recurring flood events in the city of Cali. Critical areas are defined as areas where the sewerage system does not work properly as surface runoff increases considerable with storm events, and floods are recurrent. The assessment will be done from the analysis of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers from CVC Environmental Institution of Regional Control in Valle del Cauca, hydrological data and disaster database developed by OSSO Corporation. Rainfall data from a network and historical stream flow data will be used for analysis of historical behavior and change of precipitation and hydrological response according to homogeneous zones characterized by EMCALI S.A. public utility enterprise of Cali in 1999.Keywords: drainage systems, land cover changes, urban hydrology, urban planning
Procedia PDF Downloads 26426979 2D Numerical Modeling for Induced Current Distribution in Soil under Lightning Impulse Discharge
Authors: Fawwaz Eniola Fajingbesi, Nur Shahida Midia, Elsheikh M. A. Elsheikh, Siti Hajar Yusoff
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Empirical analysis of lightning related phenomena in real time is extremely dangerous due to the relatively high electric discharge involved. Hence, design and optimization of efficient grounding systems depending on real time empirical methods are impeded. Using numerical methods, the dynamics of complex systems could be modeled hence solved as sets of linear and non-linear systems . In this work, the induced current distribution as lightning strike traverses the soil have been numerically modeled in a 2D axial-symmetry and solved using finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2 AC/DC module. Stratified and non- stratified electrode system were considered in the solved model and soil conductivity (σ) varied between 10 – 58 mS/m. The result discussed therein were the electric field distribution, current distribution and soil ionization phenomena. It can be concluded that the electric field and current distribution is influenced by the injected electric potential and the non-linearity in soil conductivity. The result from numerical calculation also agrees with previously laboratory scale empirical results.Keywords: current distribution, grounding systems, lightning discharge, numerical model, soil conductivity, soil ionization
Procedia PDF Downloads 31226978 An Engineering Application of the H-P Version of the Finite Element Method on Vibration Behavior of Rotors
Authors: Hadjoui Abdelhamid, Saimi Ahmed
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The hybrid h-p finite element method for the dynamic behavior of nonlinear rotors is described in this paper. The standard h-version method of discretizing the problem is retained, but modified to allow the use of polynomially-enriched beam elements. A hierarchically enriching element will thus not affect the nodal displacement and rotation, but will influence the values of the nodal bending moment and shear force is used. The deterministic movements of rotation and translation of the support which are coupled to the excitations due to unbalance are also taken into account. We study also the geometric dissymmetry of the shaft and the disc, thus the equations of motion of the rotor contain variable parametric coefficients over time that can lead to a lateral dynamic instability. The effects of movements combined support for bearings are analyzed and discussed through Campbell diagrams and spectral analyses. A program is made in Matlab. After validation of the program, several examples are studied. The influence of physical and geometric parameters on the natural frequencies of the shaft is determined through the study of these examples. Among these parameters, we include the variation in the diameter and the thickness of the rotor, the position of the disc.Keywords: Campbell diagram, critical speeds, nonlinear rotor, version h-p of FEM
Procedia PDF Downloads 23326977 Power Quality Improvement Using UPQC Integrated with Distributed Generation Network
Authors: B. Gopal, Pannala Krishna Murthy, G. N. Sreenivas
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The increasing demand of electric power is giving an emphasis on the need for the maximum utilization of renewable energy sources. On the other hand maintaining power quality to satisfaction of utility is an essential requirement. In this paper the design aspects of a Unified Power Quality Conditioner integrated with photovoltaic system in a distributed generation is presented. The proposed system consist of series inverter, shunt inverter are connected back to back on the dc side and share a common dc-link capacitor with Distributed Generation through a boost converter. The primary task of UPQC is to minimize grid voltage and load current disturbances along with reactive and harmonic power compensation. In addition to primary tasks of UPQC, other functionalities such as compensation of voltage interruption and active power transfer to the load and grid in both islanding and interconnected mode have been addressed. The simulation model is design in MATLAB/ Simulation environment and the results are in good agreement with the published work.Keywords: distributed generation (DG), interconnected mode, islanding mode, maximum power point tracking (mppt), power quality (PQ), unified power quality conditioner (UPQC), photovoltaic array (PV)
Procedia PDF Downloads 50726976 Lineup Optimization Model of Basketball Players Based on the Prediction of Recursive Neural Networks
Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita
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In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.Keywords: recurrent neural network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model
Procedia PDF Downloads 13326975 Elements of Socio-Ecological Knowledge for Sustainable Fisheries Management: An Analysis of Chakara Fishery Management in South West India
Authors: Antony Thomas Vanchipurrakkal
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Common property resource like fisheries is conserved and managed by fishermen with the help of Local Ecological Knowledge system. Various forms of Social and Ecological elements adapted to formularize management of Chakara fishery. This study tries for a better understanding of elements involved in fishery management in India, such traditional knowledge system practicing within the fishing communities for management and conservation of the marine resources. Participatory Rural Appraisal technique is applied to seize the traditional knowledge system in central Kerala coastal region, India. Socio-Ecological Analysis framework is used for the study. This paper discusses that traditional knowledge systems of chakara fishery and discloses need for inclusive governance system. The paper also discusses adaptation of different elements of the ecological, biological and institutional knowledge system in local ecological knowledge for sustain the fishery. A framework is formulized based on elements operating in chakara fishery management.Keywords: common property, fisheries, India, local ecological knowledge, management
Procedia PDF Downloads 41326974 A Replicon-Baculovirus Model for Efficient Packaging of Hepatitis E Virus RNA and Production of Infectious Virions
Authors: Mohammad K. Parvez, Mohammed S. Al-Dosari
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Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an emerging RNA virus that causes acute and chronic liver disease with a global mortality rate of about 2%. Despite milestone developments in understanding of HEV biology, there is still lack of a robust culture system or animal model. Therefore, in a novel approach, two recombinant-baculoviruses (vBac-ORF2 and vBac-ORF3) that could overexpress HEV ORF2 (structural/capsid) and ORF3 (nonstructural/regulatory) proteins, respectively were constructed. The established HEV-SAR55 (genotype 1) replicon that contained GFP gene, in place of ORF2/ORF3 sequences was in vitro transcribed, and GFP production in RNA transfected S10-3 cells was scored by FACS. Enhanced infectivity, if any, of nascent virions produced by exogenously-supplied ORF2 and viral RNA by co-expression of ORF3 was tested on naïve HepG2 cells. Co-transduction with vBac-ORF2/vBac-ORF3 (108 pfu/microL) produced high amounts of native ORF2/ORF3 in approximately 60% of S10-3 cells, determined by immunofluorescence microscopy and Western analysis. FACS analysis showed about 9% GFP positivity of S10-3 cells on day6 post-transfection (i.e, day5 post-transduction). Further, FACS scoring indicated that lysates from S10-3 cultures receiving the RNA plus vBac-ORF2 were capable of producing HEV particles with about 4% infectivity in HepG2 cells. However, lysates of cultures co-transduced with vBac-ORF3, were found to further enhance virion infectivity by approximately 17%. This supported a previously proposed role of ORF3 as a minor-structural protein in HEV virion assembly and infectivity. In conclusion, the present model for efficient genomic RNA packaging and production of infectious virions could be a valuable tool to study various aspects of HEV molecular biology, in vitro.Keywords: chronic liver disease, hepatitis E virus, ORF2, ORF3, replicon
Procedia PDF Downloads 25526973 Application of Artificial Neural Network in Initiating Cleaning Of Photovoltaic Solar Panels
Authors: Mohamed Mokhtar, Mostafa F. Shaaban
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Among the challenges facing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), dust accumulation on solar panels is considered the most severe problem that faces the growth of solar power plants. The accumulation of dust on the solar panels significantly degrades output from these panels. Hence, solar PV panels have to be cleaned manually or using costly automated cleaning methods. This paper focuses on initiating cleaning actions when required to reduce maintenance costs. The cleaning actions are triggered only when the dust level exceeds a threshold value. The amount of dust accumulated on the PV panels is estimated using an artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments are conducted to collect the required data, which are used in the training of the ANN model. Then, this ANN model will be fed by the output power from solar panels, ambient temperature, and solar irradiance, and thus, it will be able to estimate the amount of dust accumulated on solar panels at these conditions. The model was tested on different case studies to confirm the accuracy of the developed model.Keywords: machine learning, dust, PV panels, renewable energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 144