Search results for: operational risks

Authors: Victoria Bessonova, Robert Dorrell, Nina Dethlefs, Evdokia Tapoglou, Katharine York

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As the global pursuit of renewable energy intensifies, offshore wind farms have emerged as a promising solution to combat climate change. The global offshore wind installed capacity is projected to increase 56-fold by 2055. However, the impacts of climate change, particularly changes in wave climate, are not widely understood. Offshore wind installation and maintenance activities often require specific weather windows, characterized by calm seas and low wave heights, to ensure safe and efficient operations. However, climate change-induced alterations in wave characteristics can reduce the availability of suitable weather windows, leading to delays and disruptions in project timelines. it applied the operational limits of installation and maintenance vessels to past and future climate wave projections. This revealed changes in the annual and monthly accessibility of offshore wind farms at key global development locations. When accessibility is only defined by significant wave height, spatial patterns in the annual accessibility roughly follow changes in significant wave height, with increased availability where significant wave height is decreasing. This resulted in a 1-6% increase in Europe and North America and a similar decrease in South America, Australia and Asia. Monthly changes suggest unchanged or slightly decreased (1-2%) accessibility in summer months and increased (2-6%) in winter. Further assessment includes assessing the sensitivity of accessibility to operational limits defined by wave height combined with wave period and wave height combined with wind speed. Results of this assessment will be included in the presentation. These findings will help stakeholders inform climate change adaptations in installation and maintenance planning practices.

Keywords: climate change, offshore wind, offshore wind installation, operations and maintenance, wave climate, wind farm accessibility

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Authors: Soori Nnko, Zaina Mchome, John Dusabe, Angela Obasi

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In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls living in urban and periurban settings are among the groups at increased risk of getting sexually transmitted infections. One of the challenges to improve uptake of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents is linked to little appreciation about their vulnerability and the knowledge on availability of the SRH services. Objective: This study assesses adolescents’ perceptions on risks for SRH problems and the availability of services to prevent against SRH problems. Methodology: The study was conducted in March 2011 in Mwanza region, Tanzania. Data collection techniques included 18 Participatory Group Discussions and 17 In-depth Interviews with adolescents and young mothers aged 15-20 years. Results: Adolescents indicated that risk places included their homes, bushes, commercial centers, roadsides as well as school settings. Risk for having unprotected sex varied depending on where you are, and the time of the day. For example, collection of firewood in the bushes or water from the wells exposed girls to men who forced or lured them to have sex. The girls reported to encounter motorcyclists who offered the ride in exchange for sex. Girls also knew myriads places to seek SRH services, including public and private clinics, drug shops and traditional healers. Despite being aware of risky environment, and places to seek the services, access to SRH services were limited due to the stigma and negative attitude of community regarding adolescents’ utilization of SRH services. Conclusion: Adolescents are exposed to various risky environments, yet due to social stigma they have difficult to access the available SRH services.

Keywords: adolescent girls, sexual and reproductive health, AIDS, risk, opportunities, interventions, sub Saharan africa

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Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) rely on two modes of cooperation that are infrastructure sharing and resource substitution to obtain economic and environmental benefits. The former consists in the intensification of use of an asset while the latter is based on the use of waste, fatal energy (and utilities) as alternatives to standard inputs. Both modes, in fact, rely on the shift from a business-as-usual functioning towards an alternative production system structure so that in a business point of view the distinction is not clear. In order to investigate the way those cooperation modes can be distinguished, we consider the stakeholders' interplay in the business model structure regarding their resources and requirements. For infrastructure sharing (following economic engineering literature) the cost function of capacity induces economies of scale so that demand pooling reduces global expanses. Grassroot investment sizing decision and the ex-post pricing strongly depends on the design optimization phase for capacity sizing whereas ex-post operational cost sharing minimizing budgets are less dependent upon production rates. Value is then mainly design driven. For resource substitution, synergies value stems from availability and is at risk regarding both supplier and user load profiles and market prices of the standard input. Baseline input purchasing cost reduction is thus more driven by the operational phase of the symbiosis and must be analyzed within the whole sourcing policy (including diversification strategies and expensive back-up replacement). Moreover, while resource substitution involves a chain of intermediate processors to match quality requirements, the infrastructure model relies on a single operator whose competencies allow to produce non-rival goods. Transaction costs appear higher in resource substitution synergies due to the high level of customization which induces asset specificity, and non-homogeneity following transaction costs economics arguments.

Keywords: business model, capacity, sourcing, synergies

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Authors: Amin Chegenizadeh, Mahdi Keramatikerman

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Soil stabilization is a crucial issue that helps to remove of risks associated with the soil failure. As soil has applications in different industries such as construction, pavement and railways, the means of stabilizing soil are varied. This paper will focus on the techniques of stabilizing soils. It will do so by gathering useful information on the state of the art in the field of soil stabilization, investigating both traditional and advanced methods. To inquire into the current knowledge, the existing literature will be divided into categories addressing the different techniques.

Keywords: review, soil, stabilization, techniques

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Authors: Ujjwall Sai Sunder Uppuluri

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Group theory is a powerful tool that researchers can use to provide a structural foundation for their Agent Based Models. These Agent Based models are argued by this paper to be the future of the Social Science Disciplines. More specifically, researchers can use them to apply evolutionary theory to the study of complex social systems. This paper illustrates one such example of how theoretically an Agent Based Model can be formulated from the application of Group Theory, Systems Dynamics, and Evolutionary Biology to analyze the strategies pursued by states to mitigate risk and maximize usage of resources to achieve the objective of economic growth. This example can be applied to other social phenomena and this makes group theory so useful to the analysis of complex systems, because the theory provides the mathematical formulaic proof for validating the complex system models that researchers build and this will be discussed by the paper. The aim of this research, is to also provide researchers with a framework that can be used to model political entities such as states on a 3-dimensional plane. The x-axis representing resources (tangible and intangible) available to them, y the risks, and z the objective. There also exist other states with different constraints pursuing different strategies to climb the mountain. This mountain’s environment is made up of risks the state faces and resource endowments. This mountain is also layered in the sense that it has multiple peaks that must be overcome to reach the tallest peak. A state that sticks to a single strategy or pursues a strategy that is not conducive to the climbing of that specific peak it has reached is not able to continue advancement. To overcome the obstacle in the state’s path, it must innovate. Based on the definition of a group, we can categorize each state as being its own group. Each state is a closed system, one which is made up of micro level agents who have their own vectors and pursue strategies (actions) to achieve some sub objectives. The state also has an identity, the inverse being anarchy and/or inaction. Finally, the agents making up a state interact with each other through competition and collaboration to mitigate risks and achieve sub objectives that fall within the primary objective. Thus, researchers can categorize the state as an organism that reflects the sum of the output of the interactions pursued by agents at the micro level. When states compete, they employ a strategy and that state which has the better strategy (reflected by the strategies pursued by her parts) is able to out-compete her counterpart to acquire some resource, mitigate some risk or fulfil some objective. This paper will attempt to illustrate how group theory combined with evolutionary theory and systems dynamics can allow researchers to model the long run development, evolution, and growth of political entities through the use of a bottom up approach.

Keywords: complex systems, evolutionary theory, group theory, international political economy

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Authors: Rawan K. Al-Duaij, Salem A. Al-Salem

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Projects, the unique and temporary process of achieving a set of requirements have always been challenging; Planning the schedule and budget, managing the resources and risks are mostly driven by a similar past experience or the technical consultations of experts in the matter. With that complexity of Projects in Scope, Time, and execution environment, Adjustment Orders are tools to reflect changes to the original project parameters after Contract signature. Adjustment Orders are the official/legal amendments to the terms and conditions of a live Contract. Reasons for issuing Adjustment Orders arise from changes in Contract scope, technical requirement and specification resulting in scope addition, deletion, or alteration. It can be as well a combination of most of these parameters resulting in an increase or decrease in time and/or cost. Most business leaders (handling projects in the interest of the owner) refrain from using Adjustment Orders considering their main objectives of staying within budget and on schedule. Success in managing the changes results in uninterrupted execution and agreed project costs as well as schedule. Nevertheless, this is not always practically achievable. In this paper, a detailed study through utilizing Industrial Engineering & Systems Management tools such as Six Sigma, Data Analysis, and Quality Control were implemented on the organization’s five years records of the issued Adjustment Orders in order to investigate their prevalence, and time and cost impact. The analysis outcome revealed and helped to identify and categorize the predominant causations with the highest impacts, which were considered most in recommending the corrective measures to reach the objective of minimizing the Adjustment Orders impacts. Data analysis demonstrated no specific trend in the AO frequency in past five years; however, time impact is more than the cost impact. Although Adjustment Orders might never be avoidable; this analysis offers’ some insight to the procedural gaps, and where it is highly impacting the organization. Possible solutions are concluded such as improving project handling team’s coordination and communication, utilizing a blanket service contract, and modifying the projects gate system procedures to minimize the possibility of having similar struggles in future. Projects in the Oil and Gas sector are always evolving and demand a certain amount of flexibility to sustain the goals of the field. As it will be demonstrated, the uncertainty of project parameters, in adequate project definition, operational constraints and stringent procedures are main factors resulting in the need for Adjustment Orders and accordingly the recommendation will be to address that challenge.

Keywords: adjustment orders, data analysis, oil and gas sector, systems management

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Authors: Tukeaban Hasanova, Jamila Imamalieva

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By the operational method, the problem on two-dimensional wave propagation in elastic medium excited by the round cylinder is solved. An analytical solution responding to instantaneous application of speed to the inclusion at its subsequent change is constructed. The two-dimensional problem on wave propagation in an elastic medium is considered.

Keywords: cylinder, inclusion, wave, elastic medium, speed

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Authors: Hafid Smaili, Wilfred Rouwhorst, Paul Frost

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The trend of recent accident and incident cases worldwide show that the state-of-the-art automation and operations, for current and future demanding operational environments, does not provide the desired level of operational safety under crew peak workload conditions, specifically in complex situations such as loss-of-control in-flight (LOC-I). Today, the short term focus is on preparing crews to recognise and handle LOC-I situations through upset recovery training. This paper describes the cockpit integration aspects and piloted assessment of both a manually assisted and automatic upset detection and recovery system that has been developed and demonstrated within the European Advanced Cockpit for Reduction Of StreSs and workload (ACROSS) programme. The proposed system is a function that continuously monitors and intervenes when the aircraft enters an upset and provides either manually pilot-assisted guidance or takes over full control of the aircraft to recover from an upset. In order to mitigate the highly physical and psychological impact during aircraft upset events, the system provides new cockpit functionalities to support the pilot in recovering from any upset both manually assisted and automatically. A piloted simulator assessment was made in Oct-Nov 2015 using ten pilots in a representative civil large transport fly-by-wire aircraft in terms of the preference of the tested upset detection and recovery system configurations to reduce pilot workload, increase situational awareness and safe interaction with the manually assisted or automated modes. The piloted simulator evaluation of the upset detection and recovery system showed that the functionalities of the system are able to support pilots during an upset. The experiment showed that pilots are willing to rely on the guidance provided by the system during an upset. Thereby, it is important for pilots to see and understand what the aircraft is doing and trying to do especially in automatic modes. Comparing the manually assisted and the automatic recovery modes, the pilot’s opinion was that an automatic recovery reduces the workload so that they could perform a proper screening of the primary flight display. The results further show that the manually assisted recoveries, with recovery guidance cues on the cockpit primary flight display, reduced workload for severe upsets compared to today’s situation. The level of situation awareness was improved for automatic upset recoveries where the pilot could monitor what the system was trying to accomplish compared to automatic recovery modes without any guidance. An improvement in situation awareness was also noticeable with the manually assisted upset recovery functionalities as compared to the current non-assisted recovery procedures. This study shows that automatic upset detection and recovery functionalities are likely to positively impact the operational safety by means of reduced workload, improved situation awareness and crew stress reduction. It is thus believed that future developments for upset recovery guidance and loss-of-control prevention should focus on automatic recovery solutions.

Keywords: aircraft accidents, automatic flight control, loss-of-control, upset recovery

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Authors: Narsimhulu Sanke, D. N. Reddy

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The paper is to discuss about the influence of the temperature in the advanced biomass gasifier for gasification, when tested four different biomass fuels individually in the gasification laboratory of Centre for Energy Technology (CET). The gasifier is developed in CET to test any kind of biomass fuel for gasification without changing the gasifier. The gasifier can be used for batch operations and observed and found that there were no operational problems.

Keywords: biomass fuels, temperature, advanced downdraft gasifier, tar, renewable energy sources

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Authors: Keiko Tamura, Munenari Inoguchi, Michiyo Tsuji

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When disasters occur, in order to raise the speed of each decision making and response, it is common that delegation of authority is carried out. This tendency is particularly evident when the department or branch of the organization are separated by the physical distance from the main body; however, there are some issues to think about. If the department or branch is too dependent on the head office in the usual condition, they might feel lost in the disaster response operation when they are face to the situation. Avoiding this problem, an organization should decide how to delegate the authority and also who accept the responsibility for what before the disaster. This paper will discuss about the method which presents an approach for executing the delegation of authority process, implementing authorities, management by objectives, and preparedness plans and agreement. The paper will introduce the examples of efforts for the three research centers of Niigata University, Japan to arrange organizations capable of taking necessary actions for disaster response. Each center has a quality all its own. One is the center for carrying out the research in order to conserve the crested ibis (or Toki birds in Japanese), the endangered species. The another is the marine biological laboratory. The third one is very unique because of the old growth forests maintained as the experimental field. Those research centers are in the Sado Island, located off the coast of Niigata Prefecture, is Japan's second largest island after Okinawa and is known for possessing a rich history and culture. It takes 65 minutes jetfoil (high-speed ferry) ride to get to Sado Island from the mainland. The three centers are expected to be easily isolated at the time of a disaster. A sense of urgency encourages 3 centers in the process of organizational restructuring for enhancing resilience. The research team from the risk management headquarters offer those procedures; Step 1: Offer the hazard scenario based on the scientific evidence, Step 2: Design a risk management organization for disaster response function, Step 3: Conduct the participatory approach to make consensus about the overarching objectives, Step 4: Construct the unified operational action plan for 3 centers, Step 5: Simulate how to respond in each phase based on the understanding the various phases of the timeline of a disaster. Step 6: Document results to measure performance and facilitate corrective action. This paper shows the result of verifying the output and effects.

Keywords: delegation of authority, disaster response, risk management, unified command

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Authors: Marek Vondra, Petr Bobák

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Vacuum evaporation is a reliable and well-proven technology with a wide application range which is frequently used in food, chemical or pharmaceutical industries. Recently, numerous remarkable studies have been carried out to investigate utilization of this technology in the area of wastewater treatment. One of the most successful applications of vacuum evaporation principal is connected with seawater desalination. Since 1950’s, multi-stage flash distillation (MSF) has been the leading technology in this field and it is still irreplaceable in many respects, despite a rapid increase in cheaper reverse-osmosis-based installations in recent decades. MSF plants are conveniently operated in countries with a fluctuating seawater quality and at locations where a sufficient amount of waste heat is available. Nowadays, most of the MSF research is connected with alternative heat sources utilization and with hybridization, i.e. merging of different types of desalination technologies. Some of the studies are concerned with basic principles of the static flash phenomenon, but only few scientists have lately focused on the fundamentals of continuous multi-stage evaporation. Limited measurement possibilities at operating plants and insufficiently equipped experimental facilities may be the reasons. The aim of the presented study was to design, construct and test an up-to-date test rig with an advanced measurement system which will provide real time monitoring options of all the important operational parameters under various conditions. The whole system consists of a conventionally designed MSF unit with 8 evaporation chambers, versatile heating circuit for different kinds of feed water (e.g. seawater, waste water), sophisticated system for acquisition and real-time visualization of all the related quantities (temperature, pressure, flow rate, weight, conductivity, pH, water level, power input), access to a wide spectrum of operational media (salt, fresh and softened water, steam, natural gas, compressed air, electrical energy) and integrated transparent features which enable a direct visual control of selected physical mechanisms (water evaporation in chambers, water level right before brine and distillate pumps). Thanks to the adjustable process parameters, it is possible to operate the test unit at desired operational conditions. This allows researchers to carry out statistical design and analysis of experiments. Valuable results obtained in this manner could be further employed in simulations and process modeling. First experimental tests confirm correctness of the presented approach and promise interesting outputs in the future. The presented experimental apparatus enables flexible and efficient research of the whole MSF process.

Keywords: design of experiment, multi-stage flash distillation, test rig, vacuum evaporation

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Authors: Jasna Prester, Ivana Rašić Bakarić, Božidar Matijević

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Various prominent scholars and substantial practitioner-oriented literature on innovation orientation have shown positive effects on firm performance. There is a myriad of factors that influence and enhance innovation but it has been found in the literature that new product innovations accounted for an average of 14 percent of sales revenues for all firms. If there is one thing that has changed in innovation management during the last decade, it is the growing reliance on external partners. As a consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to understand which suppliers actually do have high potential contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not. Purchasing function in an organization is extremely important as it deals on an average of 50% or more of a firm's expenditures. In the nineties the purchasing department was largely seen as a transaction-oriented, clerical function but today purchasing integration provides a formal interface mechanism between purchasing and other firm functions that services other functions within the company. Purchasing function has to be organized differently to enable firm innovation potential. However, innovations are inherently risky. There are behavioral risk (that some partner will take advantage of the other party), technological risk in terms of complexity of products and processes of manufacturing and incoming materials and finally market risks, which in fact judge the value of the innovation. These risks are investigated in this work since it has been found in the literature that the higher the technological risk, higher will be the centralization of the purchasing function as an interface with other supply chain members. Most researches on organization of purchasing function were done by case study analysis of innovative firms. This work actually tends to prove or discard results found in the literature based on case study method. A large data set of 1493 companies, from 25 countries collected in the GMRG 4 survey served as a basis for analysis.

Keywords: purchasing function organization, innovation, technological risk, GMRG 4 survey

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Authors: Nnadi Ezekiel Oluwaseun Ejiofor

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This research investigates the effects of poor cost estimation, material cost variations, and payment punctuality on the financial health and execution of construction projects in Nigeria. To achieve the objectives of the study, a quantitative research approach was employed, and data was gathered through an online survey of 74 construction industry professionals consisting of quantity surveyors, contractors, and other professionals. The study surveyed input on cost estimation errors, price fluctuations, and payment delays, among other factors. The responses of the respondents were analyzed using a five-point Likert scale and the Relative Importance Index (RII). The findings demonstrated that the errors in cost estimating in the Bill of Quantity (BOQ) have a high degree of negative impact on the reputation and image of the participants in the projects. The greatest effect was experienced on the likelihood of obtaining future endeavors for contractors (mean value = 3.42), followed by the likelihood of obtaining new commissions by quantity surveyors (mean value = 3.40). The level of inaccuracy in costing that undershoots exposes them to risks was most serious in terms of easement of construction and effects of shortage of funds to pursue bankruptcy (hence fears of mean value = 3.78). There was also considerable financial damage as a result of cost underestimation, whereby contractors suffered the worst loss in profit (mean value = 3.88). Every expense comes with its own peculiar risk and uncertainty. Pressure on the cost of materials and every other expense attributed to the building and completion of a structure adds risks to the performance figures of a project. The greatest weight (mean importance score = 4.92) was attributed to issues like market inflation in building materials, while the second greatest weight (mean importance score = 4.76) was due to increased transportation charges. On the other hand, delays in payments arising from issues of the clients like poor availability of funds (RII=0.71) and contracting issues such as disagreements on the valuation of works done (RII=0.72) or other reasons were also found to lead to project delays and additional costs. The results affirm the importance of proper cost estimation on the health of organization finances and project risks and finishes within set time limits. As for the suggestions, it is proposed to progress on the methods of costing, engender better communications with the stakeholders, and manage the delays by way of contracting and financial control. This study enhances the existing literature on construction project management by suggesting ways to deal with adverse cost inaccuracies and availability of materials due to delays in payments which, if addressed, would greatly improve the economic performance of the construction business.

Keywords: cost estimation, construction project management, material price fluctuations, payment delays, financial impact

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Authors: Irina M. Kolesnikova, Andrey M. Gaponov, Sergey A. Roumiantsev, Tatiana V. Grigoryeva, Dilyara R. Khusnutdinova, Dilyara R. Kamaldinova, Alexander V. Shestopalov

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Background. Obese patients have unequal risks of metabolic disorders. It is accepted to distinguish between metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUHO). MUHO patients have a high risk of metabolic disorders, insulin resistance, and diabetes mellitus. Among the other things, the gut microbiota also contributes to the development of metabolic disorders in obesity. Obesity is accompanied by significant changes in the gut microbial community. In turn, bacterial translocation from the intestine is the basis for the blood microbiome formation. The aim was to study the features of the blood microbiome in patients with various metabolic types of obesity. Patients, materials, methods. The study included 116 healthy donors and 101 obese patients. Depending on the metabolic type of obesity, the obese patients were divided into subgroups with MHO (n=36) and MUHO (n=53). Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the blood microbiome was based on metagenomic analysis. Blood samples were used to isolate DNA and perform sequencing of the variable v3-v4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. Alpha diversity indices (Simpson index, Shannon index, Chao1 index, phylogenetic diversity, the number of observed operational taxonomic units) were calculated. Moreover, we compared taxa (phyla, classes, orders, and families) in terms of isolation frequency and the taxon share in the total bacterial DNA pool between different patient groups. Results. In patients with MHO, the characteristics of the alpha-diversity of the blood microbiome were like those of healthy donors. However, MUHO was associated with an increase in all diversity indices. The main phyla of the blood microbiome were Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria. Cyanobacteria, TM7, Thermi, Verrucomicrobia, Chloroflexi, Acidobacteria, Planctomycetes, Gemmatimonadetes, and Tenericutes were found to be less significant phyla of the blood microbiome. Phyla Acidobacteria, TM7, and Verrucomicrobia were more often isolated in blood samples of patients with MUHO compared with healthy donors. Obese patients had a decrease in some taxonomic ranks (Bacilli, Caulobacteraceae, Barnesiellaceae, Rikenellaceae, Williamsiaceae). These changes appear to be related to the increased diversity of the blood microbiome observed in obesity. An increase of Lachnospiraceae, Succinivibrionaceae, Prevotellaceae, and S24-7 was noted for MUHO patients, which, apparently, is explained by a magnification in intestinal permeability. Conclusion. Blood microbiome differs in obese patients and healthy donors at class, order, and family levels. Moreover, the nature of the changes is determined by the metabolic type of obesity. MUHO linked to increased diversity of the blood microbiome. This appears to be due to increased microbial translocation from the intestine and non-intestinal sources.

Keywords: blood microbiome, blood bacterial DNA, obesity, metabolically healthy obesity, metabolically unhealthy obesity

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Authors: Rosaria Tizzani, Tomas Morosinotto, Fabrizio Bezzo, Eleonora Sforza

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Red microalga Porphyridium marinum CCAP 13807/10 has the potential to produce a broad range of commercially valuable chemicals such as PhycoErytrin (PE) and sulphated ExoPolySaccharides (EPS). Multiple abiotic factors influence the growth of Porphyridium sp., e.g. the wavelength of the light source and different cultivation strategies (one or two steps, batch, semi-, and continuous regime). The microalga of interest is cultivated in a two-step system. First, the culture grows photoautotrophically in a controlled bioreactor with pH-dependent CO2 injection, temperature monitoring, light intensity, and LED wavelength remote control in a semicontinuous mode. In the second step, the harvested biomass is subjected to mixotrophic conditions to enhance further growth. Preliminary tests have been performed to define the suitable media, salinity, pH, and organic carbon substrate to obtain the highest biomass productivity. Dynamic light and operational conditions (e.g. HRT) are evaluated to achieve high biomass production, high PE accumulation in the biomass, and high EPS release in the medium. Porphyridium marinum is able to chromatically adapt the photosynthetic apparatus to efficiently exploit the full light spectra composition. The effect of specific narrow LED wavelengths (white W, red R, green G, blue B) and a combination of LEDs (WR, WB, WG, BR, BG, RG) are identified to understand the phenomenon of chromatic adaptation under photoautotrophic conditions. The effect of light intensity, residence time, and light quality are investigated to define optimal operational strategies for full scale commercial applications. Production of biomass, phycobiliproteins, PE, EPS, EPS sulfate content, EPS composition, Chlorophyll-a, and pigment content are monitored to determine the effect of LED wavelength on the cultivation Porphyridium marinum in order to optimize the production of these multiple, highly valuable bioproducts of commercial interest.

Keywords: red microalgae, LED, exopolysaccharide, phycoerythrin

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Authors: Patience Oluchi Silas, Yemi Adeshina

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Financial transactions involving the use of the internet has become an important practice among commercial banks in Nigeria with the introduction of internet banking and this has improved banking efficiency in rending services to customers. However, customers in Lagos State are enslaved in the fear of insecurity, technical failure, inadequate operational facilities, including improper telecommunications and poor power supply. It is in line with this that this paper explores the obstacles faced by Lagosians, tourists, small scale business owners, companies, customers and the government's attitude in addressing the challenges associated with online banking system in Nigeria through relevant legislations. Internet banking has the potential to transform economic activity and achieve developmental goals. If the associated Challenges are addressed quickly, then it will have the desired impact on the Nigerian economy. In this study, Respondents, mostly bank employees and customers were issued well designed and structured questionnaires to effectively examine the new developments brought about by the introduction of Internet banking and the challenges inhibiting its adoption. Hypotheses were formulated to test assumptions and claims generated from the study. The results were statistically analyzed to address the issues of errors and chances, and at the end, the result of the statistical analysis shows that all especially insecurity, inadequate operational facilities and poor power supply are the significant factors affecting the adoption of internet banking services in Nigeria. The study recommends that for internet banking to assume a developmental dimension in Nigeria and for the country to be fully integrated and respected in global financial environment, the prevalent level of frauds in Lagos State and among Nigerians must first be addressed and the relevant local laws should be put in place and in consonance with international laws and conventions; get the citizens well educated on the intricacies of Internet usage and frauds.

Keywords: internet-banking, adoption, challenges, insecurity, legislation, fraud, Lagos state, statistics

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Authors: Claudia Seabra, Elisabeth Kastenholz, José Luís Abrantes, Manuel Reis

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In a world of increasing mobility and global risks, terrorism has, in a perverse way, capitalized on contemporaneous society’s growing interest in travel to explore a world whose national boundaries and distances have decreased. Terrorists have identified the modern tourist flows originated from the economically more developed countries as new appealing targets so as to: i) call attention to the causes they defend and ii) destroy a country’s foundations of tourism, with the final aim of disrupting the economic and consequently social fabric of the affected countries. The present study analyses sensitivity towards risk and travel behaviors in international travel amongst a sample of 600 international tourists from 49 countries travelling by air. Specifically, the sample was segmented according to the Global Peace Index. This index defines country profiles regarding the levels of peace. The indicators used are established over three broad themes: i) ongoing domestic and international conflict; ii) societal safety and security; and iii) militarisation. Tourists were segmented, according to their country of origin, in different levels of peacefulness. Several facets of travel behavior were evaluated, namely motivations, attitude towards trip planning, quality perception and perceived value of the trip. Also factors related with risk perception were evaluated, specifically terrorism risk perception during the trip, unsafety sensation as well as importance attributed to safety in travel. Results contribute to our understanding of the role of previous exposure to the lack of peace and safety at home in the international tourists behaviors, which is further discussed in terms of tourism management and marketing implications which should particularly interest tourism services and destinations more affected by terrorism, war, political turmoil, crime and other safety risks.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, safety, risk perception

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Authors: Marco F. Benaglia, Mei H. Chen, Kune M. Tsai, Chia H. Hung

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As societal and family structures, consumer dietary habits, and awareness about food safety and quality continue to evolve in most developed countries, the demand for refrigerated and frozen foods has been growing, and the issues related to their preservation have gained increasing attention. A well-established cold chain logistics system is essential to avoid any temperature abuse; therefore, assessing potential disruptions in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers becomes pivotal. This study preliminarily employs HACCP to find disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers that may cause temperature abuse. Then, concept mapping is applied: selected experts engage in brainstorming sessions to identify any further factors. The panel consists of ten experts, including four from logistics and home delivery, two from retail distribution, one from the food industry, two from low-temperature logistics centers, and one from the freight industry. Disruptions include equipment-related aspects, human factors, management aspects, and process-related considerations. The areas of observation encompass freezer rooms, refrigerated storage areas, loading docks, sorting areas, and vehicle parking zones. The experts also categorize the disruption factors based on perceived similarities and build a similarity matrix. Each factor is evaluated for its impact, frequency, and investment importance. Next, multiple scale analysis, cluster analysis, and other methods are used to analyze these factors. Simultaneously, key disruption factors are identified based on their impact and frequency, and, subsequently, the factors that companies prioritize and are willing to invest in are determined by assessing investors’ risk aversion behavior. Finally, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is applied to verify the risk patterns. 66 disruption factors are found and categorized into six clusters: (1) "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities", (2) "Inadequate Management and Operational Negligence", (3) "Product Characteristics Affecting Quality and Inappropriate Packaging", (4) "Poor Control of Operation Timing and Missing Distribution Processing", (5) "Inadequate Planning for Peak Periods and Poor Process Planning", and (6) "Insufficient Cold Chain Awareness and Inadequate Training of Personnel". This study also identifies five critical factors in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers: "Lack of Personnel’s Awareness Regarding Cold Chain Quality", "Personnel Not Following Standard Operating Procedures", "Personnel’s Operational Negligence", "Management’s Inadequacy", and "Lack of Personnel’s Knowledge About Cold Chain". The findings show that cold chain operators prioritize prevention and improvement efforts in the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster, particularly focusing on the factors of "Temperature Setting Errors" and "Management’s Inadequacy". However, through the application of CPT theory, this study reveals that companies are not usually willing to invest in the improvement of factors related to the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster due to its low occurrence likelihood, but they acknowledge the severity of the consequences if it does occur. Hence, the main implication is that the key disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers’ processes are associated with personnel issues; therefore, comprehensive training, periodic audits, and the establishment of reasonable incentives and penalties for both new employees and managers may significantly reduce disruption issues.

Keywords: concept mapping, cold chain, HACCP, cumulative prospect theory

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Authors: Amiza Surmi, Azmi Shariff, Sow Mun Serene Lock

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In recent decades, there has been a significant emphasis on the pivotal role of Rotating Packed Beds (RPBs) in absorption processes, encompassing the removal of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from groundwater, deaeration, CO2 absorption, desulfurization, and similar critical applications. The primary focus is elevating mass transfer rates, enhancing separation efficiency, curbing power consumption, and mitigating pressure drops. Additionally, substantial efforts have been invested in exploring the adaptation of RPB technology for offshore deployment. This comprehensive study delves into the intricacies of nitrogen removal under low temperature and high-pressure conditions, employing the high gravity principle via innovative RPB distillation concept with a specific emphasis on optimizing mass transfer. Based on the author's knowledge and comprehensive research, no cryogenic experimental testing was conducted to remove nitrogen via RPB. The research identifies pivotal process control factors through meticulous experimental testing, with pressure, reflux ratio, and reboil ratio emerging as critical determinants in achieving the desired separation performance. The results are remarkable, with nitrogen removal reaching less than one mole% in the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) product and less than three moles% methane in the nitrogen-rich gas stream. The study further unveils the mass transfer coefficient, revealing a noteworthy trend of decreasing Number of Transfer Units (NTU) and Area of Transfer Units (ATU) as the rotational speed escalates. Notably, the condenser and reboiler impose varying demands based on the operating pressure, with lower pressures at 12 bar requiring a more substantial duty than the 15-bar operation of the RPB. In pursuit of optimal energy efficiency, a meticulous sensitivity analysis is conducted, pinpointing the ideal combination of pressure and rotating speed that minimizes overall energy consumption. These findings underscore the efficiency of the RPB distillation approach in effecting efficient separation, even when operating under the challenging conditions of low temperature and high pressure. This achievement is attributed to a rigorous process control framework that diligently manages the operational pressure and temperature profile of the RPB. Nonetheless, the study's conclusions point towards the need for further research to address potential scaling challenges and associated risks, paving the way for the industrial implementation of this transformative technology.

Keywords: mass transfer coefficient, nitrogen removal, liquefaction, rotating packed bed

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Authors: Chigbo Ikechukwu Emmanuel

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Microalgae can be used for tertiary treatment of wastewater due to their capacity to assimilate nutrients. The pH increase which is mediated by the growing algae also induces phosphorus precipitation and ammonia stripping to the air, and may in addition act disinfecting on the wastewater. Domestic wastewater is ideal for algal growth since it contains high concentrations of all necessary nutrients. The growth limiting factor is rather light, especially at higher latitudes. The most important operational factors for successful wastewater treatment with microalgae are depth, turbulence and hydraulic retention time.

Keywords: microalgae, wastewater treatment, phosphorus, nitrogen, light, operation, ponds, growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 476

Authors: Deniz Ünal Özpalamutcu, Burcu Altman

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Actuaria uses mathematics, statistic and financial information when analyzing the financial impacts of uncertainties, risks, insurance and pension related issues. In other words, it deals with the likelihood of potential risks, their financial impacts and especially the financial measures. Handling these measures require some long-term payment and investments. So, it is obvious it is inevitable to plan the periodic payments with equal time intervals considering also the changing value of money over time. These series of payment made specific intervals of time is called annuity or rant. In literature, rants are classified based on start and end dates, start times, payments times, payments amount or frequency. Classification of rants based on payment amounts changes based on the constant, descending or ascending payment methods. The literature about handling the annuity is very limited. Yet in a daily life, especially in today’s world where the economic issues gained a prominence, it is very crucial to use the variable annuity method in line with the demands of the customers. In this study, the types of annuities with flexible payment are discussed. In other words, we focus on calculating payment amount of a period by adding a certain percentage of previous period payment was studied. While studying this problem, formulas were created considering both start and end period payments for cash value and accumulated. Also increase of each period payment by r interest rate each period payments calculated with previous periods increases. And the problem of annuities (rants) of which each period payment increased with previous periods’ increase by r interest rate has been analyzed. Cash value and accumulated value calculation of this problem were studied separately based on the period start/end and their relations were expressed by formulas.

Keywords: actuaria, annuity, flexible payment, rant

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Md Kamrul Hassan

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Adaptation interventions are the common response to manage the vulnerabilities of climate change. The nature of adaptation intervention depends on the degree of vulnerability and the capacity of a society. The coping interventions can take the form of hard adaptation – utilising technologies and capital goods like dykes, embankments, seawalls, and/or soft adaptation – engaging knowledge and information sharing, capacity building, policy and strategy development, and innovation. Hard adaptation is quite capital intensive but provides immediate relief from climate change vulnerabilities. This type of adaptation is not real development, as the investment for the adaptation cannot improve the performance – just maintain the status quo of a social or ecological system, and often lead to maladaptation in the long-term. Maladaptation creates a two-way loss for a society – interventions bring further vulnerability on top of the existing vulnerability and investment for getting rid of the consequence of interventions. Hard adaptation is popular to the vulnerable groups, but it focuses so much on the immediate solution and often ignores the environmental issues and future risks of climate change. On the other hand, soft adaptation is education oriented where vulnerable groups learn how to live with climate change impacts. Soft adaptation interventions build the capacity of vulnerable groups through training, innovation, and support, which might enhance the resilience of a system. In consideration of long-term sustainability, soft adaptation can contribute more to resilience than hard adaptation. Taking a developing society as the study context, this study aims to investigate and understand the effectiveness of the adaptation interventions of the coastal community of Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh. Applying semi-structured interviews with a range of Sundarbans stakeholders including community residents, tourism demand-supply side stakeholders, and conservation and management agencies (e.g., Government, NGOs and international agencies) and document analysis, this paper reports several key insights regarding climate change adaptation. Firstly, while adaptation interventions may offer a short-term to medium-term solution to climate change vulnerabilities, interventions need to be revised for long-term sustainability. Secondly, soft adaptation offers advantages in terms of resilience in a rapidly changing environment, as it is flexible and dynamic. Thirdly, there is a challenge to communicate to educate vulnerable groups to understand more about the future effects of hard adaptation interventions (and the potential for maladaptation). Fourthly, hard adaptation can be used if the interventions do not degrade the environmental balance and if the investment of interventions does not exceed the economic benefit of the interventions. Overall, the goal of an adaptation intervention should be to enhance the resilience of a social or ecological system so that the system can with stand present vulnerabilities and future risks. In order to be sustainable, adaptation interventions should be designed in such way that those can address vulnerabilities and risks of climate change in a long-term timeframe.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, maladaptation, resilience, Sundarbans, sustainability, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Shree Kumar Maharjan

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Climate change has varied impacts on diverse livelihood sectors, which is more prominent at the community level. The stakeholders and local institutions have been supporting the communities either by building adaptive capacities and resilience or minimizing the impacts of different adaptation interventions. Some of these interventions are effective, whereas others need further dynamisms and exertions considering the complexity of the risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, consolidated efforts of concerned stakeholders are required to minimize and adapt the present and future impacts. This study digs out and analyses the perceptions of local stakeholders in climate change adaptation in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Nepal through a questionnaire survey. The study has categorized the local stakeholders into 5 groups in the study sites – Farmers groups and cooperatives, Government, I/NGOs, Development banks and education and other organizations. The local stakeholders revealed flood, drought, cold wave and riverbank erosion as the major climatic risks and hazards found in the sites eventually impacting on the loss of agricultural production, loss of agricultural land and properties, loss of livestock, the emergence of diseases and pest. The stakeholders believed that most of the farmers dealing with these impacts based on their traditional knowledge and practices, followed by with the support of NGOs and with the help of neighbors and community. The major supports of the stakeholders to deal with these impacts were on training and awareness, risk analysis and minimization, livelihood improvement, financial support, coordination and networking and facilitation in policy formulation. The stakeholders emphasized primarily on capacity building, appropriate technologies, community-based planning and monitoring, prioritization to the poor and the marginalized and establishment of community fund respectively for building adaptive capacities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, local stakeholders, Madi, Deukhuri, Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Nino Chomakhashvili, Nino Chikhladze, Nato Pitskhelauri, Maia Bitskhinashvili

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The dental practice is associated with occupational health challenges. Ergonomic risks in the workplace can significantly impair a dentist's work capacity and may even result in the premature end of their career. Implementing ergonomic principles in dental practice aims to prevent work-related musculoskeletal disorders. Many studies have been conducted in various countries such as Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Poland, and Australia to examine the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders among dentists. However, to the best of authors knowledge there have been no studies on the application of ergonomic principles in dental practice in Georgia. This study focused on evaluating the ergonomic conditions of dental practice in Georgia and determining how common musculoskeletal disorders are among them. The survey was conducted using a random sampling method in selected dental clinics. A tailored questionnaire consisting of 40 questions, created using insights from international practices, was utilized for the study. Two hundred ninety-one filled questionnaires were used for the analysis. Most respondents reported that their workplaces adhered to ergonomic standards. However, 53.6% experienced frequent back pain, with 50.9% suffering from neck pain, 47.9% from shoulder pain, and 47.1% from lower back pain. Many noted that pain had caused them to reduce their working hours. Nearly all respondents expressed a desire to enhance their knowledge about ergonomics and the prevention of occupational diseases. They indicated a preference for participating in continuous professional development programs (61.5%), receiving information through leaflets (12.0%), and attending online webinars (26.6%). Integrating ergonomic principles into the dental practice is crucial for preventing work-related musculoskeletal disorders. It is essential to offer continuous professional development programs and provide information to dentists, via leaflets, thematic online or hybrid webinars.

Keywords: dental practice, ergonomic risks, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational health

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

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Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Adeleh Moshtaghi Zonouz, Issa Eskandari

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A simple, efficient, and green one-pot, four-component synthesis of highly substituted polyhydronaphthalenes in aqueous media is described. The method has such advantages as short reaction times, high yields, mild reaction conditions, operational simplicity and environmentally benign.

Keywords: polyhydronaphthalene, 2, 6-dicyanoanilines, multi-component reaction, aqueous media

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Sindhu Govardhan, Kenneth G. Crowther

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Modernisation of the water sector is leading to increased connectivity and integration of emerging technologies with traditional ones, leading to new security risks. The convergence of Information Technology (IT) with Operation Technology (OT) results in solutions that are spread across larger geographic areas, increasingly consist of interconnected Industrial Internet of Things (IIOT) devices and software, rely on the integration of legacy with modern technologies, use of complex supply chain components leading to complex architectures and communication paths. The result is that multiple parties collectively own and operate these emergent technologies, threat actors find new paths to exploit, and traditional cybersecurity controls are inadequate. Our approach is to explicitly identify and draw data flows that cross trust boundaries between owners and operators of various aspects of these emerging and interconnected technologies. On these data flows, we layer potential attack vectors to create a frame of reference for evaluating possible risks against connected technologies. Finally, we identify where existing controls, mitigations, and other remediations exist across industry partners (e.g., suppliers, product vendors, integrators, water utilities, and regulators). From these, we are able to understand potential gaps in security, the roles in the supply chain that are most likely to effectively remediate those security gaps, and test cases to evaluate and strengthen security across these partners. This informs a “shared responsibility” solution that recognises that security is multi-layered and requires collaboration to be successful. This shared responsibility security framework improves visibility, understanding, and control across the entire supply chain, and particularly for those water utilities that are accountable for safe and continuous operations.

Keywords: cyber security, shared responsibility, IIOT, threat modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Bryan M. Baltazar, Marjorie V. Remolador, Klathea H. Sevilla, Imee Saladaga, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Biomass energy is a traditional source of sustainable energy, which has been widely used in developing countries. The Philippines, specifically Central Luzon, has an abundant source of biomass. Hence, it could supply abundant agricultural residues (rice husks), as feedstock in a biomass power plant. However, locating a potential site for biomass development is a complex process which involves different factors, such as physical, environmental, socio-economic, and risks that are usually diverse and conflicting. Moreover, biomass distribution is highly dispersed geographically. Thus, this study develops an integrated method combining Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and methods for energy planning; Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), for locating suitable site for biomass power plant development in Central Luzon, Philippines by considering different constraints and factors. Using MCDA, a three level hierarchy of factors and constraints was produced, with corresponding weights determined by experts by using AHP. Applying the results, a suitability map for Biomass power plant development in Central Luzon was generated. It showed that the central part of the region has the highest potential for biomass power plant development. It is because of the characteristics of the area such as the abundance of rice fields, with generally flat land surfaces, accessible roads and grid networks, and low risks to flooding and landslide. This study recommends the use of higher accuracy resource maps, and further analysis in selecting the optimum site for biomass power plant development that would account for the cost and transportation of biomass residues.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, biomass energy, GIS, multi-criteria decision analysis, site suitability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 424