Search results for: change point analysis

Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Developing tailored management strategies to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource under climate and demographic changes is critical for tropical karst island, where relatively small watershed and highly porous soil nature make this natural resource highly susceptible and thus very sensitive to those changes. In this study, long-term impacts of climate variability on groundwater recharge and discharge at the Oemau spring, Rote Island, Indonesia were investigated. Following calibration and validation of groundwater model using MODFLOW code, groundwater flow was simulated for period of 2020-2090 under HadCM3 global model climate (GCM) scenarios, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The reported analysis suggests that the sustainability of groundwater resources will be adversely affected by climate change during dry years. The area is projected to variably experience 2.53-22.80% decrease of spring discharge. A subsequent comprehensive set of management strategies as palliative and adaptive efforts was proposed to be implemented by relevant stakeholders to assist the community dealing with water deficit during the dry years. Three main adaptive strategies, namely socio-cultural, technical, and ecological measures, were proposed by incorporating physical and socio-economic characteristics of the area. This study presents a blueprint for assessing groundwater sustainability under climate change scenarios and developing tailored management strategies to cope with adverse impacts of climate change, which may become fundamental necessities across other tropical karst islands in the future.

Keywords: climate change, groundwater, management strategies, tropical karst island, Rote Island, Indonesia

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Authors: Nuria Vargas, Frances Rodriguez

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Neotropical medium cities have opportunities to develop in a good manner. Xalapa City (Veracruz capital, Mexico) and its metropolitan region, near to the Gulf of Mexico, has already <1 million inhabitants, a medium city size, but it’s growing rapidly as several cities in Latin America. Inside a landscape where it had been a forest cloud and coffee land, emerges the city with an irregular topography. The rapid grow of the urbanization and the loss of vegetation has result in a change on the climate parameters. Frequently warms spells, floods and landslides had been impacted last 2 decades, also a higher incidence of dengue and diarrhea is mentioned in the region. Therefore, the analysis of hydrometeorological events is crucial to understand the role they play in its problem. The urbanization and others radiative forces has created a modulation that can explain the decadal climate changes on the Xalapa region. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation directly influences the temperature and precipitation of the region, even more than climate change does. The total effect of these drivers can create a significant context that origin more risk. However, the most policies frequently consider only the climate change as a principal factor, but other drivers are important to consider and evaluate for the implementation of actions that improve our ambient and cities, in a context of climate change. Medium-sized cities could create better conditions for future citizens, preventing with urban planning that considers possible risks associated with weather and climate.

Keywords: natural variability, urbanization, atlantic multidecadal oscillation, land use changes

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Authors: Yue Hao

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COVID-19 vaccines not only protect individuals but society as a whole. In this case, having an understanding of the change and trend of vaccination conditions may shed some light on revising and making up-to-date policies regarding large-scale public health promotions and calls in order to lead and encourage the adoption of COVID-19 vaccines. However, vaccination status change over time and vary from place to place hidden patterns that were not fully explored in previous research. In our research, we took advantage of the spatial-temporal analytical methods in the domain of geographic information science and captured the spatial-temporal changes regarding COVID-19 vaccination status in the United States during 2020 and 2021. After conducting the emerging hot spots analysis on both the state level data of the US and county level data of California we found that: (1) at the macroscopic level, there is a continuously increasing trend of the vaccination rate in the US, but there is a variance on the spatial clusters at county level; (2) spatial hotspots and clusters with high vaccination amount over time were clustered around the west and east coast in regions like California and New York City where are densely populated with considerable economy conditions; (3) in terms of the growing trend of the daily vaccination among, Los Angeles County alone has very high statistics and dramatic increases over time. We hope that our findings can be valuable guidance for supporting future decision-making regarding vaccination policies as well as directing new research on relevant topics.

Keywords: COVID-19 vaccine, GIS, space time cube, spatial-temporal analysis

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Authors: Henrique Fernandes, Sofia Catalucci, Richard Leach, Kapil Sugand

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Background: Holograms are 3D images formed by the interference of light beams from a laser or other coherent light source. Pepper’s ghost is a form of hologram conceptualised in the 18th century. This Holographic visualisation with metrology measuring techniques by displaying measurements taken in real-time in holographic form can assist in research and education. New structural designs such as the Plexiglass Stand and the Hologram Box can optimise the holographic experience. Method: The equipment used included: (i) Zeiss’s ATOS Core 300 optical coordinate measuring instrument that scanned real-world objects; (ii) Cloud Compare, open-source software used for point cloud processing; and (iii) Hologram Box, designed and manufactured during this research to provide the blackout environment needed to display 3D point clouds in real-time measurements in holographic format, in addition to a portability aspect to holograms. The equipment was tailored to realise the goal of displaying measurements in an innovative technique and to improve on conventional methods. Three test scans were completed before doing a holographic conversion. Results: The outcome was a precise recreation of the original object in the holographic form presented with dense point clouds and surface density features in a colour map. Conclusion: This work establishes a way to visualise data in a point cloud system. To our understanding, this is a work that has never been attempted. This achievement provides an advancement in holographic visualisation. The Hologram Box could be used as a feedback tool for measurement quality control and verification in future smart factories.

Keywords: holography, 3D scans, hologram box, metrology, point cloud

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Authors: Anne Waithira Dormal

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Climate change is threatening pastoral livelihoods in Kajiado County, Kenya, through water shortages, livestock deaths, and increasing poverty. This study examines how these impacts differ for men and women within these communities. Limited access to resources, limited land and livestock rights, and limited decision-making power increase women's vulnerability, which is further burdened by traditional gender roles in water procurement. The research recognizes the complexity of climate change and emphasizes that factors such as wealth, family dynamics, and socioeconomic status also influence resilience. Effective adaptation strategies must address all genders. While livestock farming provides a safety net, socioeconomic empowerment through access to credit, healthcare, and education strengthens entire communities. An intersectional perspective that takes ethnicity, social status, and other factors into account is also crucial. This research, therefore, aims to examine how gender-specific adaptation strategies interact with gender and socioeconomic factors to determine the resilience of these Kenyan pastoralist communities. Such strategies, which address the specific needs and vulnerabilities of men and women, are expected to lead to increased resilience to climate change. The aim of the study is to identify effective, gender-specific adaptation strategies that can be integrated into climate change planning and implementation. Additionally, research awaits a deeper understanding of how socioeconomic factors interact with gender to influence vulnerability and resilience within these communities. The study uses a gender-sensitive qualitative approach with focus group discussions in four different pastoral and agropastoral communities. Both qualitative and demographic data are used to capture sources of income, education level, and household size of focus group respondents to increase the power of the analysis. While the research acknowledges the limitations of specific focus sites and potential biases in self-reporting, it offers valuable insights into gender and climate change in pastoral contexts. This study contributes to understanding gender-based vulnerabilities and building resilience in these communities.

Keywords: climate adaptation strategies, climate change, climate resilience, gendered vulnerability, pastoralism

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Authors: Renuka Mahadevan, Maneka Jayasinghe, Dianne Dredge

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Over the last two years, tourism has been subject to unprecedented changes, and experts predict further change, especially with respect to travel and tourism choices. As concerns regarding the environment and climate change grow, many tourism industry stakeholders are particularly keen on taking steps to mitigate the adverse impacts of the travel industry to the broader society and environment. This approach and process is commonly referred to as 'Sustainable Tourism'. An emerging concept that extends beyond 'sustainable tourism' is 'Regenerative Tourism', which aims to impact the local systems, society and environment positively. In particular, it aims to provide transformational experiences to tourists and thereby inspire the travellers while the local cultural heritage and traditions are preserved from generation to generation. This study analyses how tourism stakeholders are shifting their attitude towards travel and tourism, particularly regarding its impact on people, places, businesses and the environment. The analysis will be based on a global survey of 1200 businesses, tourism organisations, employees, and travel consumers. The preliminary analysis of responses reveals a high interest towards transformational experiences during travel.

Keywords: regenerative tourism, transformational, experience, local systems

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Authors: Khairil I. Othman, Nur N. Kamal, Zarina B. Ibrahim

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In this paper, we present modified Newton method as a new strategy for improving the efficiency of Two Point Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (BBDF) when solving stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These methods are constructed to produce two approximate solutions simultaneously at each iteration The detailed implementation of the predictor corrector BBDF with PE(CE)2 with modified Newton are discussed. The proposed modification of BBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with the existing Block Backward Differentiation Formula. Numerical results show the advantage of using the new strategy for solving stiff ODEs in improving the accuracy of the solution.

Keywords: newton method, two point, block, accuracy

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Authors: Nervana Elbakary, Sami Ouanes, Sadaf Riaz, Oraib Abdallah, Islam Mahran, Noriya Al-Khuzaei, Yassin Eltorki

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Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) requires therapeutic interventions during the initial month after being diagnosed for better disease outcomes. International guidelines recommend a duration of 4–12 weeks for an initial antidepressant (IAD) trial at an optimized dose to get a response. If depressive symptoms persist after this duration, guidelines recommend switching, augmenting, or combining strategies as the next step. Most patients with MDD in the mental health setting have been labeled incorrectly as treatment-resistant where in fact they have not been subjected to an adequate trial of guideline-recommended therapy. Premature discontinuation of IAD due to ineffectiveness can cause unfavorable consequences. Avoiding irrational practices such as subtherapeutic doses of IAD, premature switching between the ADs, and refraining from unjustified polypharmacy can help the disease to go into a remission phase We aimed to determine the prevalence and the patterns of strategies applied after an IAD was changed because of a suboptimal response as a primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included the median survival time on IAD before any change; and the predictors that were associated with IAD change. This was a retrospective cross- sectional study conducted in Mental Health Services in Qatar. A dataset between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2019, was extracted from the electronic health records. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined and applied. The sample size was calculated to be at least 379 patients. Descriptive statistics were reported as frequencies and percentages, in addition, to mean and standard deviation. The median time of IAD to any change strategy was calculated using survival analysis. Associated predictors were examined using two unadjusted and adjusted cox regression models. A total of 487 patients met the inclusion criteria of the study. The average age for participants was 39.1 ± 12.3 years. Patients with first experience MDD episode 255 (52%) constituted a major part of our sample comparing to the relapse group 206(42%). About 431 (88%) of the patients had an occurrence of IAD change to any strategy before end of the study. Almost half of the sample (212 (49%); 95% CI [44–53%]) had their IAD changed less than or equal to 30 days. Switching was consistently more common than combination or augmentation at any timepoint. The median time to IAD change was 43 days with 95% CI [33.2–52.7]. Five independent variables (age, bothersome side effects, un-optimization of the dose before any change, comorbid anxiety, first onset episode) were significantly associated with the likelihood of IAD change in the unadjusted analysis. The factors statistically associated with higher hazard of IAD change in the adjusted analysis were: younger age, un-optimization of the IAD dose before any change, and comorbid anxiety. Because almost half of the patients in this study changed their IAD as early as within the first month, efforts to avoid treatment failure are needed to ensure patient-treatment targets are met. The findings of this study can have direct clinical guidance for health care professionals since an optimized, evidence-based use of AD medication can improve the clinical outcomes of patients with MDD; and also, to identify high-risk factors that could worsen the survival time on IAD such as young age and comorbid anxiety

Keywords: initial antidepressant, dose optimization, major depressive disorder, comorbid anxiety, combination, augmentation, switching, premature discontinuation

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mohiuddin

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Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries in the world, and ranks low on almost all measures of economic development, thus leaving the population extremely vulnerable to natural disasters and climate events. 20% of GDP come from agriculture but more than 60% of the population relies on agriculture as their main source of income making the entire economy vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. High population density exacerbates the exposure to and effect of climate events, and increases the levels of vulnerability, as does the poor institutional development of the country. The most vulnerable sectors to climate change impacts in Bangladesh are agriculture, coastal zones, water resources, forestry, fishery, health, biomass, and energy. High temperatures, heavy rainfall, high humidity and fairly marked seasonal variations characterize the climate in Bangladesh: Mild winter, hot humid summer and humid, warm rainy monsoon. Much of the country is flooded during the summer monsoon. The Department of Environment (DOE) under the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) is the focal point for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and coordinates climate related activities in the country. Recently, a Climate Change Cell (CCC) has been established to address several issues including adaptation to climate change. The climate change focus started with The National Environmental Management Action Plan (NEMAP) which was prepared in 1995 in order to initiate the process to address environmental and climate change issues as long-term environmental problems for Bangladesh. Bangladesh was one of the first countries to finalise a NAPA (Preparation of a National Adaptation Plan of Action) which addresses climate change issues. The NAPA was completed in 2005, and is the first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation to national policies and actions to cope with climate change and vulnerability. The NAPA suggests a number of adaptation strategies, for example: - Providing drinking water to coastal communities to fight the enhanced salinity caused by sea level rise, - Integrating climate change in planning and design of infrastructure, - Including climate change issues in education, - Supporting adaptation of agricultural systems to new weather extremes, - Mainstreaming CCA into policies and programmes in different sectors, e.g. disaster management, water and health, - Dissemination of CCA information and awareness raising on enhanced climate disasters, especially in vulnerable communities. Bangladesh has geared up its environment conservation steps to save the world’s poorest countries from the adverse effects of global warming. Now it is turning towards green economy policies to save the degrading ecosystem. Bangladesh is a developing country and always fights against Natural Disaster. At the same time we also fight for establishing ecological environment through promoting Green Economy/Energy by Youth Networking. ANTAR is coordinating a big Youth Network in the southern part of Bangladesh where 30 Youth group involved. It can be explained as the economic development based on sustainable development which generates growth and improvement in human’s lives while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. Green economy in Bangladesh promotes three bottom lines – sustaining economic, environment and social well-being.

Keywords: resilience, networking, mobilizing, resource

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Authors: Cuma Şimşek

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Nowadays our globalized world is in a very rapid and sophisticated change. In the information age, notion of ‘information’ has begun to spread faster than ever also in this age, changes and transformation has gained tremendous momentum with technology boom. This continuous change and transformation, increased the competition between existing organizations and corporations. Besides, the organizations which show resistance to change has been put out of action in this competitive environment. It is not possible to sustain the existence of organizations without adapting to change and transformation by isolating itself from developments. As a consequence of improved communication and dialog possibilities by means of increasing knowledge level, there has been made a change of scene in administrative mentality, style and activation, especially in 21th century. Leaders emerge as the most important factor in this process of perception and success. At the same time it is not enough to adapt the alteration with conventional leadership abilities and behaviors. In parallel with alteration, new types of leadership are coming up. The optimal leadership type for our era and a trending topic "Transformational Leadership" is in great demand now. In this research, current situation of the Air Forces which use high-technology weapons efficiently, operates in an environment full of threats and is analyzed. It is evaluated that in order to be ready for war continuously and adjusting itself to changing terms of warfare atmosphere , Air Forces need ‘transformational leaders’ who are innovative, foreseeing and having a vision so that they can develop new methods and strategies for complex problems. Because it is the Air Force which is responsible for being the deterrent force of its country.

Keywords: transformational, change, air force, leadership

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Authors: Isaiah Phillip Smith, Sam Erevbenagie Usadolo, Pamela Theresa Tancsik

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This paper is part of ongoing doctoral research that examines the role of Theatre for Development (TfD) in addressing climate change in the Mosuthu community in Reservoir Hills, Durban, South Africa. The context of the research underscores the pressing challenges facing South Africa, including drought, water shortages, deterioration of land, and civil unrest that require innovative approaches to the mitigation of climate change. TfD, described as a dialogical form of theatre that allows communities to express and contribute to development, emerges as a strategic medium for engaging communities in the process. The research problem focused on the unexamined potential of TfD in promoting community involvement and critical awareness of climate change. The study objectives included assessing the community's understanding of climate change, exploring TfD's potential as a participatory tool, examining its role in community mobilization, and developing recommendations for its effective implementation. A review of relevant literature and preliminary investigations in the research community indicates that TfD is an effective medium for promoting societal transformation and engaging marginalized communities. Through culturally resonant narratives, TfD can instill a deeper understanding of environmental challenges, fostering empathy and motivating behavioural changes. By integrating community voices and cultural elements, TfD serves as a powerful catalyst for promoting climate change awareness and inspiring collective action within the South African context. This research contributes to the global discourse on innovative approaches to climate change awareness and action.

Keywords: TfD, climate change, community involvement, societal transformation, culture

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Authors: Mustafa Jaradat

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Reasonable energy saving for dehumidification is feasible with the use of desiccants. Desiccants are able to lower the humidity content in the air irrespective of the dew point temperature. In this paper, a tube bundle liquid desiccant air conditioner was experimentally designed and evaluated using lithium chloride as a desiccant. Several experiments were conducted to evaluate the influence of the inlet parameters on the dehumidifier performance. The results show a reduction in the relative humidity in the range of 17 to 46%, and the change in the humidity ratio was between 1.5 to 4.7 g/kg, depending on the inlet conditions. A water removal rate in the range between 0.54 and 1.67 kg/h was observed. The effects of air relative humidity and the desiccant flow rate on the dehumidifier’s performance were investigated. It was found that the moisture removal rate remarkably increased with increasing desiccant flow rate and air inlet humidity ratio. The dehumidifier effectiveness increased sharply with increasing desiccant flow rate. Also, it was found that the dehumidifier effectiveness slightly decreased with air humidity ratio.

Keywords: air conditioning, dehumidification, desiccant, lithium chloride, tube bundle

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Authors: Said Abdul Ahad Ahadi, Elyas Baray, Nitin Rakesh, Sudeep Varshney

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Wi-Fi is a widely used internet source that is used to provide internet access in many areas such as Stores, Cafes, University campuses, Restaurants and so on. This technology brought more facilities in communication and networking. On the other hand, due to the transmission of data over the air, which makes the network vulnerable, so it becomes prone to various threats such as Evil Twin and etc. The Evil Twin is a kind of adversary which impersonates a legitimate access point (LAP) as it can happen by spoofing the name (SSID) and MAC address (BSSID) of a legitimate access point (LAP). And this attack can cause many threats such as MITM, Service Interruption, Access point service blocking. Various Evil Twin Attack Detection Techniques are proposed, but they require additional hardware, or they require protocol modification. In this paper, we proposed a new technique based on Access Point’s two fingerprints, Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) and Hop Count, that is hard to copy by an adversary. And we implemented the technique in a system called “ETDetector,” which can detect and prevent the attack.

Keywords: evil twin, LAP, SSID, Wi-Fi security, signal variation, ETAD, kali linux, scapy, python

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Authors: Sunil Tumkur Dakshinamurthy, Mamootil Zachariah Kurian

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Change requirement traceability in object oriented software systems is one of the challenging areas in research. We know that the traces between links of different artifacts are to be automated or semi-automated in the software development life cycle (SDLC). The aim of this paper is discussing and implementing aspects of dynamically linking the artifacts such as requirements, high level design, code and test cases through the Extensible Markup Language (XML) or by dynamically generating Object Oriented (OO) metrics. Also, non-functional requirements (NFR) aspects such as stability, completeness, clarity, validity, feasibility and precision are discussed. We discuss this as a Fifth Taxonomy, which is a system vulnerability concern.

Keywords: artifacts, NFRs, OO metrics, SDLC, XML

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Authors: Sopheak Sorn, Kwok Yip Szeto

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Reliability is one of the important measures of how well the system meets its design objective, and mathematically is the probability that a complex system will perform satisfactorily. When the system is described by a network of N components (nodes) and their L connection (links), the reliability of the system becomes a network design problem that is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we address the network design problem for a random point set’s pattern in two dimensions. We make use of a Voronoi construction with each cell containing exactly one point in the point pattern and compute the reliability of the Voronoi’s dual, i.e. the Delaunay graph. We further investigate the communicability of the Delaunay network. We find that there is a positive correlation and a negative correlation between the homogeneity of a Delaunay's degree distribution with its reliability and its communicability respectively. Based on the correlations, we alter the communicability and the reliability by performing random edge flips, which preserve the number of links and nodes in the network but can increase the communicability in a Delaunay network at the cost of its reliability. This transformation is later used to optimize a Delaunay network with the optimum geometric mean between communicability and reliability. We also discuss the importance of the edge flips in the evolution of real soap froth in two dimensions.

Keywords: Communicability, Delaunay triangulation, Edge Flip, Reliability, Two dimensional network, Voronio

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Authors: Tesfay Gidey Bezabeh, Tânia Sofia Oliveira, Josep Crous-Duran, João H. N. Palma

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Ethiopia's economy depends strongly on Coffea arabica production. Coffee, like many other crops, is sensitive to climate change. An urgent development and application of strategies against the negative impacts of climate change on coffee production is important. Agroforestry-based system is one of the strategies that may ensure sustainable coffee production amidst the likelihood of future impacts of climate change. This system involves the combination of trees in buffer extremes, thereby modifying microclimate conditions. This paper assessed coffee production under 1) coffee monoculture and 2) coffee grown using an agroforestry system, under a) current climate and b) two different future climate change scenarios. The study focused on two representative coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia under different soil, climate, and elevation conditions. A process-based growth model (Yield-SAFE) was used to simulate coffee production for a time horizon of 40 years. Climate change scenarios considered were representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed that in monoculture systems, the current coffee yields are between 1200-1250 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with an expected decrease between 4-38% and 20-60% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, in agroforestry systems, the current yields are between 1600-2200 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; the decrease was lower, ranging between 4-13% and 16-25% in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. From the results, it can be concluded that coffee production under agroforestry systems has a higher level of resilience when facing future climate change and reinforces the idea of using this type of management in the near future for adapting climate change's negative impacts on coffee production.

Keywords: Albizia gummifera, CORDEX, Ethiopia, HADCM3 model, process-based model

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Authors: Wei Ting Han, Shiann-Far Kung

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In the early time, most of the arable land is dry farming and using rainfall as water sources for irrigation in Tainan county. After the Chia-nan Irrigation System (CIS) was completed in 1930, Chia-nan Plain was more efficient allocation of limited water sources or irrigation, because of the benefit from irrigation systems, drainage systems, and land improvement projects. The problem of long-term drought, flood and salt damage in the past were also improved by CIS. The canal greatly improved the paddy field area and agricultural output, Tainan county has become one of the important agricultural producing areas in Taiwan. With the development of water conservancy facilities, affected by national policies and other factors, many agricultural communities and settlements are formed indirectly, also promoted the change of settlement patterns and internal structures. With the development of historical geographic information system (HGIS), Academia Sinica developed the WebGIS theme with the century old maps of Taiwan which is the most complete historical map of database in Taiwan. It can be used to overlay historical figures of different periods, present the timeline of the settlement change, also grasp the changes in the natural environment or social sciences and humanities, and the changes in the settlements presented by the visualized areas. This study will explore the historical development and spatial characteristics of the settlements in various areas of Tainan County. Using of large-scale areas to explore the settlement changes and spatial patterns of the entire county, through the dynamic time and space evolution from Japanese rule to the present day. Then, digitizing the settlement of different periods to perform overlay analysis by using Taiwan historical topographic maps in 1904, 1921, 1956 and 1989. Moreover, using document analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of regional environment and settlement structure. In addition, the comparison analysis method is used to classify the spatial characteristics and differences between the settlements. Exploring the influence of external environments in different time and space backgrounds, such as government policies, major construction, and industrial development. This paper helps to understand the evolution of the settlement space and the internal structural changes in Tainan County.

Keywords: historical geographic information system, overlay analysis, settlement change, Tainan County

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Authors: Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Tulay Canitez

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The traditional Turkish houses becoming unusable are a result of the deterioration of the balanced interaction between users and house (human and house) continuing during the history. Especially depending upon the change in social structure, the houses becoming neglected do not meet the desires of the users and do not have the meaning but the shelter are becoming unusable and are being destroyed. A conservation policy should be developed and renovations should be made in order to pass the traditional houses carrying the quality of a cultural and historical document presenting the social structure, the lifestyle and the traditions of its own age to the next generations and to keep them alive.

Keywords: house, social structural change, social structural, traditional Turkish houses

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Jie Chen

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In this paper, we deal with the optimal I/O point location in an automated parking system. In this system, the S/R machine (storage and retrieve machine) travels independently in vertical and horizontal directions. Based on the characteristics of the parking system and the basic principle of AS/RS system (Automated Storage and Retrieval System), we obtain the continuous model in units of time. For the single command cycle using the randomized storage policy, we calculate the probability density function for the system travel time and thus we develop the travel time model. And we confirm that the travel time model shows a good performance by comparing with discrete case. Finally in this part, we establish the optimal model by minimizing the expected travel time model and it is shown that the optimal location of the I/O point is located at the middle of the left-hand above corner.

Keywords: parking system, optimal location, response time, S/R machine

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Authors: Sadia Imran, Zenab Naseem

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Dengue fever is one of the most alarming mosquito-borne viral diseases. Dengue virus has been distributed over the years exponentially throughout the world be it tropical or sub-tropical regions of the world, particularly in the last ten years. Changing topography, climate change in terms of erratic seasonal trends, rainfall, untimely monsoon early or late and longer or shorter incidences of either summer or winter. Globalization, frequent travel throughout the world and viral evolution has lead to more severe forms of Dengue. Global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. In recent years, Pakistan experienced a deadly outbreak of the disease. The reason could be that they have the maximum exposure outdoors. Public organizations have observed that changing climate, especially lower average summer temperature, and increased vegetation have created tropical-like conditions in the city, which are suitable for Dengue virus growth. We will conduct a time-series analysis to study the interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in Pakistan, Lahore being the main focus of our study. We have used annual data from 2005 to 2015. We have investigated the relationship between climatic variables and dengue incidence. We used time series analysis to describe temporal trends. The result shows rising trends of Dengue over the past 10 years along with the rise in temperature & rainfall in Lahore. Hence this seconds the popular statement that the world is suffering due to Climate change and Global warming at different levels. Disease outbreak is one of the most alarming indications of mankind heading towards destruction and we need to think of mitigating measures to control epidemic from spreading and enveloping the cities, countries and regions.

Keywords: Dengue, epidemic, globalization, climate change

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Authors: Bambang Suko Priyono, Tristiana Rijanti

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This study examines the influence of Psychological Capital Dimensions to Organizational Citizenship Behavior. There are four dimensions of Psychological Capital such as hope, optimism, resilience, and self-efficacy. It also tests the moderation effect of Resistance to Change in the relation between Psychological Capital’s dimensions and Organizational Citizenship Behavior, and the influence of Organizational Citizenship Behavior to employees’ performance. The data from the chosen 160 respondents from Public Service Institution is processed using multiple regression and interaction method. The study results in: 1) Hope positively significantly influences Organizational Citizenship Behavior, 2) Optimism positively significantly influences Organizational Citizenship Behavior, 3) Resilience positively significantly influences Organizational Citizenship Behavior, 4) Self-efficacy positively significantly influences Organizational Citizenship Behavior, 5) Resistance to change is moderating variable between hope and Organizational Citizenship Behavior, 6) Resistance to change is moderating variable between self-efficacy and Organizational Citizenship Behavior, 7) Organizational Citizenship Behavior positively significantly influences performance. On the contrary, resistance to change as a moderating variable is proven for hope and resilience.

Keywords: organizational citizenship behavior, performance, psychological capital’s dimensions, and resistance to change

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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An adaptive nonparametric method is proposed for stable real-time detection of seismoacoustic sources in multichannel C-OTDR systems with a significant number of channels. This method guarantees given upper boundaries for probabilities of Type I and Type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDR-system are presented in this report.

Keywords: guaranteed detection, multichannel monitoring systems, change point, interval estimation, adaptive detection

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Authors: Jongho Park, Taekyun Kim, Jinwoong Choi, Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park

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Recently, the climate change is the one of the main problems. This abnormal phenomenon is consisted of the scorching heat, heavy rain and snowfall, and cold wave that will be enlarged abnormal climate change repeatedly. Accordingly, the width of temperature change is increased more and more by abnormal climate, and it is the main factor of cracking in the reinforced concrete. The crack of the reinforced concrete will affect corrosion of steel re-bar which can decrease durability of the structure easily. Hence, the elimination of the durability weakening factor (steel re-bar) is needed. Textile which weaves the carbon, AR-glass and aramid fiber has been studied actively for exchanging the steel re-bar in the Europe for about 15 years because of its good durability. To apply textile as the concrete reinforcement, the bond strength between concrete and textile will be investigated closely. Therefore, in this paper, pull-out test was performed with change of development length of textile. Significant load and stress was increasing at D80. But, bond stress decreased by increasing development length.

Keywords: bond strength, climate change, pull-out test, substitution of reinforcement material, textile

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

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This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Choki, Supatchai Boonpratham, Suwannee Luppanapornlarp

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The objective of this study was to find a correlation between cephalometric measurements and visual perception of facial profile in skeletal type II patients. In this study, 250 lateral cephalograms of female patients from age, 20 to 22 years were analyzed. The profile outlines of all the samples were hand traced and transformed into silhouettes by the principal investigator. Profile ratings were done by 9 orthodontists on Visual Analogue Scale from score one to ten (increasing level of convexity). 37 hard issue and soft tissue cephalometric measurements were analyzed by the principal investigator. All the measurements were repeated after 2 weeks interval for error assessment. At last, the rankings of visual perceptions were correlated with cephalometric measurements using Spearman correlation coefficient (P < 0.05). The results show that the increase in facial convexity was correlated with higher values of ANB (A point, nasion and B point), AF-BF (distance from A point to B point in mm), L1-NB (distance from lower incisor to NB line in mm), anterior maxillary alveolar height, posterior maxillary alveolar height, overjet, H angle hard tissue, H angle soft tissue and lower lip to E plane (absolute correlation values from 0.277 to 0.711). In contrast, the increase in facial convexity was correlated with lower values of Pg. to N perpendicular and Pg. to NB (mm) (absolute correlation value -0.302 and -0.294 respectively). From the soft tissue measurements, H angles had a higher correlation with visual perception than facial contour angle, nasolabial angle, and lower lip to E plane. In conclusion, the findings of this study indicated that the correlation of cephalometric measurements with visual perception was less than expected. Only 29% of cephalometric measurements had a significant correlation with visual perception. Therefore, diagnosis based solely on cephalometric analysis can result in failure to meet the patient’s esthetic expectation.

Keywords: cephalometric measurements, facial profile, skeletal type II, visual perception

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Authors: Nur Afiqah Mohd Kamal, Khamarrul Azahari Razak

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The earthquake aftermath has become a major concern, especially in high seismicity region. In Kundasang, Sabah, the earthquake on 5th June 2015 resulted in several catastrophes; landslides, rockfalls, mudflows and major slopes affected regardless of the series of the aftershocks. Certainly, the consequences of earthquake generate and induce the episodic disaster, not only life-threatening but it also affects infrastructure and economic development. Therefore, a need for investigating the change in land use and land cover (LULC) of post-earthquake geohazard is essential for identifying the extent of disastrous effects towards the development in Kundasang. With the advancement of remote sensing technology, post-earthquake geohazards (landslides, mudflows, rockfalls, debris flows) assessment can be evaluated by the employment of object-based image analysis in investigating the LULC change which consists of settlements, public infrastructure and vegetation cover. Therefore, this paper discusses the preliminary results on post-earthquakes geohazards distribution in Kundasang and evaluates the LULC classification effect upon the occurrences of geohazards event. The result of this preliminary analysis will provide an overview to determine the extent of geohazard impact on LULC. This research also provides beneficial input to the local authority in Kundasang about the risk of future structural development on the geohazard area.

Keywords: geohazard, land use land cover, object-based image analysis, remote sensing

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Authors: Jagannath Singh, Durga Prasad Mohapatra

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Software refactoring is very essential for maintaining the software quality. It is an usual practice that we first design the software and then go for coding. But after coding is completed, if the requirement changes slightly or our expected output is not achieved, then we change the codes. For each small code change, we cannot change the design. In course of time, due to these small changes made to the code, the software design decays. Software refactoring is used to restructure the code in order to improve the design and quality of the software. In this paper, we propose an approach for performing code refactoring. We use slice-based cohesion metrics to identify the target methods which requires refactoring. After identifying the target methods, we use program slicing to divide the target method into two parts. Finally, we have used the concepts of Aspects to adjust the code structure so that the external behaviour of the original module does not change.

Keywords: software refactoring, program slicing, AOP, cohesion metrics, code restructure, AspectJ

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Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

Abstract:

Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, Retailer

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Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 267