Search results for: Markov jump diffusion model

Authors: J. K. D. M. P. Madara, R. B. L. Dharmawickreme, Linu John, Ivee Boiss

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Flemingia vestita, commonly known as ‘Sohphlang’ is an important medicinal plant found in the North-Eastern region of India, which is traditionally recognized for its anthelmintic properties. This study was aimed to evaluate the phytochemical constituents and antibacterial activity of the tuber skin extracts of the plant species. Methanol, acetone, and water were used to obtain the solvent extractions of the skin peel extracts. Concentrated extracts of skin peel were tested using previously established qualitative phytochemical assays. The antibacterial efficacy of methanol tuber skin extract was tested against Gram-negative and positive microorganisms, namely, Klebsiella pneumonia, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Bacillus subtilis, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. Agar well diffusion method was employed to determine the zone of inhibition of the plant extracts. Obtained data were statistically analyzed. Methanol extracts of Flemingia vestita were found to be effective against Bacillus subtilis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis at concentrations of 0.5 mg/ml. The reported zone of inhibition for the two strains was 13.3mm ± 0.57 and 16.3mm ± 4.9, respectively. However Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli were resistant to the plant extracts with no zone of inhibition. Alkaloids, glycosides, and phenols were found to be present in aqueous, methanol, and acetone extracts of the plant in qualitative phytochemical analysis.

Keywords: flemingia vestita, antibacterial activity, phytochemical screening, well diffusion method

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: B.Shukir, H.Woo, P.Barzo, D.Kis

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Preoperative brain mapping in tumors involving the speech areas has an important role to reduce surgical risks. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is the gold standard method to localize cortical speech areas preoperatively, but its availability in clinical routine is difficult. Diffusion MRI based probabilistic tractography is available in head MRI. It’s used to segment cortical subregions by their structural connectivity. In our study, we used probabilistic tractography to localize the frontal and temporal cortical speech areas. 15 patients with left frontal tumor were enrolled to our study. Speech fMRI and diffusion MRI acquired preoperatively. The standard automated anatomical labelling atlas 3 (AAL3) cortical atlas used to define 76 left frontal and 118 left temporal potential speech areas. 4 types of tractography were run according to the structural connection of these regions to the left arcuate fascicle (FA) to localize those cortical areas which have speech functions: 1, frontal through FA; 2, frontal with FA; 3, temporal to FA; 4, temporal with FA connections were determined. Thresholds of 1%, 5%, 10% and 15% applied. At each level, the number of affected frontal and temporal regions by fMRI and tractography were defined, the sensitivity and specificity were calculated. At the level of 1% threshold showed the best results. Sensitivity was 61,631,4% and 67,1523,12%, specificity was 87,210,4% and 75,611,37% for frontal and temporal regions, respectively. From our study, we conclude that probabilistic tractography is a reliable preoperative technique to localize cortical speech areas. However, its results are not feasible that the neurosurgeon rely on during the operation.

Keywords: brain mapping, brain tumor, fMRI, probabilistic tractography

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: Mustapha Abdulsalam, R. N. Ahmed

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Nauclea latifolia is one of the medicinal plants used in traditional Nigerian medicine in the treatment of various diseases such as fever, toothaches, malaria, diarrhea among several other conditions. Nauclea latifolia leaf extract acts as a capping and reducing agent in the formation of silver nanoparticles. Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) were synthesized using a combination of aqueous extract of Nauclea latifolia and 1mM of silver nitrate (AgNO₃) solution to obtain concentrations of 100mg/ml-400mg/ml. Characterization of the particles was done by UV-Vis spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR). In this study, aqueous as well as ethanolic extract of leaf of Nauclea latifolia were investigated for antibacterial activity using the standard agar well diffusion technique against three clinical isolates (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa). The Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) was achieved by microbroth dilution method and Minimum Bactericidal Concentration (MBC) was also determined by plate assay. Characterization by UV-visible spectrometry revealed peak absorbance of 0.463 at 450.0nm, while FTIR showed the presence of two functional groups. At 400mg/ml, the highest inhibitory activities were observed with S.aureus and E.coli with zones of inhibition measuring 20mm and 18mm respectively. The MIC was obtained at 400mg/ml while MBC was at a higher concentration. The data from this study indicate the potential of silver nanoparticle of Nauclea latifolia as a suitable alternative antibacterial agent for incorporation into orthodox medicine in health care delivery in Nigeria.

Keywords: agar well diffusion, antimicrobial activity, Nauclea latifolia, silver nanoparticles

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: N. Gigauri, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli, V. Kukhalashvili, S. Mdivani

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The subject of our study is atmospheric air pollution with numerical modeling. In the presented article, as the object of research, there is chosen city Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, with a population of one and a half million and a difficult terrain. The main source of pollution in Tbilisi is currently vehicles and construction dust. The concentrations of dust and PM (Particulate Matter) were determined in the air of Tbilisi and in its vicinity. There are estimated their monthly maximum, minimum, and average concentrations. Processes of dust propagation in the atmosphere of the city and its surrounding territory are modelled using a 3D regional model of atmospheric processes and an admixture transfer-diffusion equation. There were taken figures of distribution of the polluted cloud and dust concentrations in different areas of the city at different heights and at different time intervals with the background stationary westward and eastward wind. It is accepted that the difficult terrain and mountain-bar circulation affect the deformation of the cloud and its spread, there are determined time periods when the dust concentration in the city is greater than MAC (Maximum Allowable Concentration, MAC=0.5 mg/m³).

Keywords: air pollution, dust, numerical modeling, PM-particles

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

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Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

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Authors: Vytautas Galvanauskas, Vykantas Grincas, Rimvydas Simutis

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This paper investigates a possible practical solution for reasonable oxygen supply during the pluripotent stem cells expansion processes, where the stem cells propagate as aggregates in stirred-suspension bioreactors. Low glucose and low oxygen concentrations are preferred for efficient proliferation of pluripotent stem cells. However, strong oxygen limitation, especially inside of cell aggregates, can lead to cell starvation and death. In this research, the oxygen concentration profile inside of stem cell aggregates in a stem cell expansion process was predicted using a modified oxygen diffusion model. This profile can be realized during the stem cells cultivation process by manipulating the oxygen concentration in inlet gas or inlet gas flow. The proposed approach is relatively simple and may be attractive for installation in a real pluripotent stem cell expansion processes.

Keywords: aggregated stem cells, dissolved oxygen profiles, modeling, stirred-tank, 3D expansion

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Authors: Pengcheng Xiang Jr., Xueqing Sun, Dong Ngoduy

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In the context of rapid urbanization, urban sprawl has brought about extensive negative impacts on ecosystems and the environment, resulting in a gradual shift from "incremental growth" to ‘stock growth’ in cities. A detailed urban growth boundary is a prerequisite for urban renewal and management. This study takes Shenyang City, China, as the study area and evaluates the spatial distribution of urban spatial suitability in the study area from the perspective of spatial constraints-suitability using multi-source data and simulates the future rigid and elastic growth boundaries of the city in the study area using the CA-Markov model. The results show that (1) the suitable construction area and moderate construction area in the study area account for 8.76% and 19.01% of the total area, respectively, and the suitable construction area and moderate construction area show a trend of distribution from the urban centre to the periphery, mainly in Shenhe District, the southern part of Heping District, the western part of Dongling District, and the central part of Dadong District; (2) the area of expansion of construction land in the study area in the period of 2023-2030 is 153274.6977hm2, accounting for 44.39% of the total area of the study area; (3) the rigid boundary of the study area occupies an area of 153274.6977 hm2, accounting for 44.39% of the total area of the study area, and the elastic boundary of the study area contains an area of 75362.61 hm2, accounting for 21.69% of the total area of the study area. The study constructed a method for urban growth boundary delineation, which helps to apply remote sensing to guide future urban spatial growth management and urban renewal.

Keywords: urban growth boundary, spatial constraints, spatial suitability, urban sprawl

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Authors: Ibrahim Watad, Ibrahim Abdulhalim

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Conventional spectroscopic surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensors are widely used, both in fundamental research and environmental monitoring as well as healthcare diagnostics. However, they still lack the low limit of detection (LOD) and there still a place for improvement. SPR conventional sensors are based on the detection of a dip in the reflectivity spectrum which is relatively wide. To improve the performance of these sensors, many techniques and methods proposed either to reduce the width of the dip or to increase the sensitivity. Together with that, profiting from the sharp jump in the phase spectrum under SPR, several works suggested the extraction of the phase of the reflected wave. However, existing phase measurement setups are in general more complicated compared to the conventional setups, require more stability and are very sensitive to external vibrations and noises. In this study, a simple polarimetric technique for phase extraction under SPR is presented, followed by a theoretical error analysis and an experimental verification. The advantages of the proposed technique upon existing techniques will be elaborated, together with conclusions regarding the best polarimetric function, and its corresponding optimal metal layer range of thicknesses to use under the conventional Kretschmann-Raether configuration.

Keywords: plasmonics, polarimetry, thin films, optical sensors

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar Mishra, Tarun Kumar Dan

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Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control method is proposed based on Internal Model Control (IMC) strategy. In this paper, we have designed the Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control for binary distillation column for SISO process (considering only bottom product). The transfer function has been taken from Wood and Berry model. We have find the composition control and disturbance rejection using Lead-Lag based IMC and comparing with the response of simple Internal Model Controller.

Keywords: SISO, lead-lag, internal model control, wood and berry, distillation column

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

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Authors: Zainab Magaji Musa, Nordin M. A. Rahman, Julaily Aida Jusoh

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The web services applications for digital reference service (WSDRS) of LIS model is an informal model that claims to reduce the problems of digital reference services in libraries. It uses web services technology to provide efficient way of satisfying users’ needs in the reference section of libraries. The formal WSDRS model consists of the Z specifications of all the informal specifications of the model. This paper discusses the formal validation of the Z specifications of WSDRS model. The authors formally verify and thus validate the properties of the model using Z/EVES theorem prover.

Keywords: validation, verification, formal, theorem prover

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Authors: Matthew C. Best

Abstract:

Linear Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic models can be identified, with no a priori knowledge of model structure or order, using a new Generalised Identifying Filter (GIF). Based on an Extended Kalman Filter, the new filter identifies the model iteratively, in a continuous modal canonical form, using only input and output time histories. The filter’s self-propagating state error covariance matrix allows easy determination of convergence and conditioning, and by progressively increasing model order, the best fitting reduced-order model can be identified. The method is shown to be resistant to noise and can easily be extended to identification of smoothly nonlinear systems.

Keywords: system identification, Kalman filter, linear model, MIMO, model order reduction

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Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

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Authors: Derradji Chebli, Abdallah Bouguettoucha, Abdelbaki Reffas Khalil Guediri, Abdeltif Amrane

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The removal of Methyl Green dye (MG) from aqueous solutions using modified P-brutia cones (PBH and PBN), has been investigated work. The physical parameters such as pH, temperature, initial MG concentration, ionic strength are examined in batch experiments on the sorption of the dye. Adsorption removal of MG was conducted at natural pH 4.5 because the dye is only stable in the range of pH 3.8 to 5. It was observed in experiments that the P-brutia cones treated with NaOH (PBN) exhibited high affinity and adsorption capacity compared to the MG P-brutia cones treated with HCl (PBH) and biosorption capacity of modified P-brutia cones (PBN and PBH) was enhanced by increasing the temperature. This is confirmed by the thermodynamic parameters (ΔG° and ΔH°) which show that the adsorption of MG was spontaneous and endothermic in nature. The positive values of ΔS° suggested an irregular increase in the randomness for both adsorbent (PBN and PBH) during the adsorption process. The kinetic model pseudo-first order, pseudo-second order, and intraparticle diffusion coefficient were examined to analyze the sorption process; they showed that the pseudo-second-order model is the one that best describes the adsorption process (MG) on PBN and PBH with a correlation coefficient R²> 0.999. The ionic strength has shown that it has a negative impact on the adsorption of MG on two supports. A reduction of 68.5% of the adsorption capacity for a value Ce=30 mg/L was found for the PBH, while the PBN did not show a significant influence of the ionic strength on adsorption especially in the presence of NaCl. Among the tested isotherm models, the Langmuir isotherm was found to be the most relevant to describe MG sorption onto modified P-brutia cones with a correlation factor R²>0.999. The capacity adsorption of P-brutia cones, was confirmed for the removal of a dye, MG, from aqueous solution. We note also that P-brutia cones is a material very available in the forest and low-cost biomaterial

Keywords: adsorption, p-brutia cones, forest wastes, dyes, isotherm

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Authors: D. Thawinkarn, S. Wongbutlee

Abstract:

The Social Change Leadership model is strongly aligned with administration’s mission. This research aims to examine the elements of social change leadership, build and develop leadership for social change, and evaluate effectiveness of leadership development model for social change. The research operation has 3 phases: model studies by in-depth interviews and survey research; drafting and creating model which verified by the experts; and trial of model in schools. The results showed that administrators and teachers have the elements of leadership for social change in moderate level. These elements are ranged descending from consciousness of self, common purpose, congruence, collaboration, commitment, citizenship, and controversy with civility. Model of leadership for social change is included the principles, objectives, content, process. Workshop process: Results show that the model of leadership development for social change in administrators and teachers leads to higher score in leadership evaluation prior to administering the operation.

Keywords: leadership, social change model, organization, administrators

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Authors: Md. S. Ansari, S. S. Motsa

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In this paper, an analysis has been made on the flow of non-Newtonian viscoelastic nanofluid over a linearly stretching sheet under the influence of uniform magnetic field. Heat transfer characteristics is analyzed taking into the effect of nonlinear radiation and non-uniform heat source/sink. Transport equations contain the simultaneous effects of Brownian motion and thermophoretic diffusion of nanoparticles. The relevant partial differential equations are non-dimensionalized and transformed into ordinary differential equations by using appropriate similarity transformations. The transformed, highly nonlinear, ordinary differential equations are solved by spectral local linearisation method. The numerical convergence, error and stability analysis of iteration schemes are presented. The effects of different controlling parameters, namely, radiation, space and temperature-dependent heat source/sink, Brownian motion, thermophoresis, viscoelastic, Lewis number and the magnetic force parameter on the flow field, heat transfer characteristics and nanoparticles concentration are examined. The present investigation has many industrial and engineering applications in the fields of coatings and suspensions, cooling of metallic plates, oils and grease, paper production, coal water or coal–oil slurries, heat exchangers’ technology, and materials’ processing and exploiting.

Keywords: magnetic field, nonlinear radiation, non-uniform heat source/sink, similar solution, spectral local linearisation method, Rosseland diffusion approximation

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Authors: A. Lakrim, D. Tahri

Abstract:

This paper sets out a behavioral macro-model of a Merged PiN and Schottky (MPS) diode based on silicon carbide (SiC). This model holds good for both static and dynamic electrothermal simulations for industrial applications. Its parameters have been worked out from datasheets curves by drawing on the optimization method: Simulated Annealing (SA) for the SiC MPS diodes made available in the industry. The model also adopts the Analog Behavioral Model (ABM) of PSPICE in which it has been implemented. The thermal behavior of the devices was also taken into consideration by making use of Foster’ canonical network as figured out from electro-thermal measurement provided by the manufacturer of the device.

Keywords: SiC MPS diode, electro-thermal, SPICE model, behavioral macro-model

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Authors: Mayar A. Omar, Ismail Gomaa, Heba Badawy, Hosam Moubarak

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Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is an integrated system that helps companies in managing their resources. There are two types of ERP systems, traditional ERP systems and cloud ERP systems. Cloud ERP systems were introduced after the development of cloud computing technology. This research aims to identify the factors that affect the adoption of cloud ERP in Egyptian companies. Moreover, the aim of our study is to provide guidance to Egyptian companies in the cloud ERP adoption decision and to participate in increasing the number of cloud ERP studies that are conducted in the Middle East and in developing countries. There are many factors influencing the adoption of cloud ERP in Egyptian organizations, which are discussed and explained in the research. Those factors are examined by combining the diffusion of innovation theory (DOI) and technology-organization-environment framework (TOE). Data were collected through a survey that was developed using constructs from the existing studies of cloud computing and cloud ERP technologies and was then modified to fit our research. The analysis of the data was based on structural equation modeling (SEM) using Smart PLS software that was used for the empirical analysis of the research model.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud ERP systems, DOI, Egypt, SEM, TOE

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

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Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu

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After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.

Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR

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Authors: Chuks Odiegwu-Enwerem

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The classical notion of opinion leadership presupposes that the media is at the center of an effective and successful opinion leadership. Under this idea, an opinion leader is an active media user who consumes, understands, digests and interprets the messages for the understanding and acceptance/adoption by lower-end media users – whose access and understanding of media content are supposedly low. Because of their unique access to and presumed understanding of media functions and their content, opinion leaders are typically esteemed by those who look forward to and accept their opinions. Lazarsfeld and Katz’s two-step flow of communication theory is the basis of opinion leadership – propelled by limited access to the media. With the emergence and spread of social media and its unlimited access by all and sundry, however, the study interrogates the relevance and application of opinion leaders and, by implication, the two-step flow communication theory in Nigeria’s Northcentral region. It seeks to determine whether opinion leaders still exist in the picture and if they still exert considerable influence, especially in matters of political conversations and decision-making among the citizens of this area. It further explores whether the diffusion of social media is a reality and how the ‘low-end’ media users react to the new-found freedom of access to media, and how they are using it to inform their decisions on important matters as well as examines if they are still glued to their opinion leaders. This study explores the empirical dimensions of the two-step flow hypothesis in relation to the activities of social media to determine if a change has occurred and in what direction, using mixed methos of Survey and in-depth interviews. Our understanding and belief in some theoretical assumptions may be enhanced or challenged by the study outcome.

Keywords: Opinion Leadership, Active Media User, Two-Step-Flow, Social media, Northcentral Nigeria

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Authors: Hoda Ghavamipoor, S. Alireza Hashemi Golpayegani

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An approach to model the customer interaction with e-commerce websites is presented. Considering the service quality level as a predictive feature, we offer an improved method based on the Customer Behavior Model Graph (CBMG), a state-transition graph model. To derive the Quality of Service sensitive-CBMG (QoS-CBMG) model, process-mining techniques is applied to pre-processed website server logs which are categorized as ‘buy’ or ‘visit’. Experimental results on an e-commerce website data confirmed that the proposed method outperforms CBMG based method.

Keywords: customer behavior model, electronic commerce, quality of service, customer behavior model graph, process mining

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