Search results for: natural disaster forecasting

Authors: Habibis Saleh, Ishak Hashim

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Combined surface tension and natural convection heat transfer in an open cavity is studied numerically in this article. The cavity is filled with water-{Cu} nanofluids. The left wall is kept at low temperature, the right wall at high temperature and the bottom and top walls are adiabatic. The top free surface is assumed to be flat and non--deformable. Finite difference method is applied to solve the dimensionless governing equations. It is found that the insignificant effect of adding the nanoparticles were obtained about $Ma_{bf}=250$.

Keywords: natural convection, marangoni convection, nanofluids, square open cavity

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Authors: G. L. Devnani, Shishir Sinha

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In the recent years, researchers have drawn their focus on natural fibers reinforced composite materials because of their excellent properties like low cost, lower weight, better tensile and flexural strengths, biodegradability etc. There is little concern however that when these materials are put in moist conditions for long duration, their mechanical properties degrade. Therefore, in order to take maximum advantage of these novel materials, one should have a complete understanding of their moisture or water absorption phenomena. Various fiber surface treatment methods like alkaline treatment, acetylation etc. have also been suggested for reduction in water absorption of these composites. In the present study, a detailed review is done for water absorption behavior of natural fiber reinforced polymer composites, and experiments also have been performed on these composites with varying the parameters like fiber loading etc. for understanding the water absorption kinetics. Various surface treatment methods also performed to reduce the water absorption behavior of these materials and effort is made to develop a proper understanding of water absorption mechanism mathematically and experimentally for full potential utilization of natural fiber reinforced polymer composite materials.

Keywords: alkaline treatment, composites, natural fiber, water absorption

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Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

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Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for M_c, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between M_w and body wave (m_b) or local magnitude (M_L), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard

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Authors: Katharina Eberhardt, Florian Klaus Kaiser, Frank Schultmann

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Last-mile distribution is one of the most critical parts of a disaster relief operation. Various uncertainties, such as infrastructure conditions, resource availability, and fluctuating beneficiary demand, render last-mile distribution challenging in disaster relief operations. The need to balance critical performance criteria like response time, meeting demand and cost-effectiveness further complicates the task. The occurrence of disasters cannot be controlled, and the magnitude is often challenging to assess. In summary, these uncertainties create a need for additional flexibility, agility, and preparedness in logistics operations. As a result, strategic planning and efficient network design are critical for an effective and efficient response. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters and the rising cost of logistical operations amplify the need to provide robust and resilient solutions in this area. Therefore, we formulate a scenario-based bi-objective optimization model that integrates pre-positioning, allocation, and distribution of relief supplies extending the general form of a covering location problem. The proposed model aims to minimize underlying logistics costs while maximizing demand coverage. Using a set of disruption scenarios, the model allows decision-makers to identify optimal network solutions to address the risk of disruptions. We provide an empirical case study of the public authorities’ emergency food storage strategy in Germany to illustrate the potential applicability of the model and provide implications for decision-makers in a real-world setting. Also, we conduct a sensitivity analysis focusing on the impact of varying stockpile capacities, single-site outages, and limited transportation capacities on the objective value. The results show that the stockpiling strategy needs to be consistent with the optimal number of depots and inventory based on minimizing costs and maximizing demand satisfaction. The strategy has the potential for optimization, as network coverage is insufficient and relies on very high transportation and personnel capacity levels. As such, the model provides decision support for public authorities to determine an efficient stockpiling strategy and distribution network and provides recommendations for increased resilience. However, certain factors have yet to be considered in this study and should be addressed in future works, such as additional network constraints and heuristic algorithms.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, bi-objective optimization, pre-positioning, last mile distribution, decision support, disaster relief networks

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Authors: Jacky Hau

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The prevalence of emerging technologies disrupts various industries as well as consumer behavior. Data collection has been in the fingertip and inherited through enabled Internet-of-things (IOT) devices. Big data analytics (BDA) becomes possible and allows real-time demand network management (DNM) through leagile supply chain. To enhance further on its resilience and predictability, governance is going to be examined to promote supply chain transparency and trust in an efficient manner. Leagility combines lean thinking and agile techniques in supply chain management. It aims at reducing costs and waste, as well as maintaining responsiveness to any volatile consumer demand by means of adjusting the decoupling point where the product flow changes from push to pull. Leagility would only be successful when collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) process or alike is in place throughout the supply chain business entities. Governance and procurement of the supply chain, however, is crucial and challenging for the execution of CPFR as every entity has to walk-the-talk generously for the sake of overall benefits of supply chain performance, not to mention the complexity of exercising the polices at both of within across various supply chain business entities on account of organizational behavior and mutual trust. Empirical survey results showed that the effective timespan on demand forecasting had been drastically shortening in the magnitude of months to weeks planning horizon, thus agility shall come first and preferably following by lean approach in a timely manner.

Keywords: governance, leagility, procure-to-pay, source-to-contract

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Authors: Keigh D. Guinto, Ma. Romina M. Santos

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One of the most catastrophic natural disasters in the Philippines is floods. Twelve (12) million people reside in Metro Manila, National Capital Region (NCR), prone to flooding. A flood can cause widespread devastation resulting in damaged properties and infrastructures and loss of life. By using the analytical hierarchy process, six (6) parameters were selected, namely elevation, slope, lithology, distance from the river, river network density, and flow accumulation. Ranking of these parameters demonstrates that distance from the river with 25.31% and river density with 17.30% ranked the highest causative factor to flooding. This is followed by flow accumulation with 16.72%, elevation with 15.33%, slope with 13.53%, and the least flood causative factor is lithology with 11.8%. The generated flood susceptibility map of Mandaluyong has three (3) classes: high susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, and low susceptibility. The flood susceptibility map generated in this study can be used as an aid for planning flood mitigation, land use planning, and general public awareness. This study can also be used for emergency management and can be applied in the disaster risk management of Mandaluyong.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, assessment, flood, geographic information system

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Authors: Hichem Boulechfar, Mahfoud Djezzar

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Two-dimensional double diffusive natural convection in an annular elliptical space filled with fluid-saturated porous medium, is analyzed by solving numerically the mass balance, momentum, energy and concentration equations, using Darcy's law and Boussinesq approximation. Both walls delimiting the annular space are maintained at two uniform different temperatures and concentrations. The external parameter considered is the Lewis number. For the present work, the heat and mass transfer for natural convection is studied for the case of aiding buoyancies, where the flow is generated in a cooperative mode by both temperature and solutal gradients. The local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers are presented in term of the external parameter.

Keywords: double diffusive, natural convection, porous media, elliptical annulus

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Authors: Ursula Das, Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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Wildland fires, also known as forest fires or wildfires, are exhibiting an alarming surge in frequency in recent times, further adding to its perennial global concern. Forest fires often lead to devastating consequences ranging from loss of healthy forest foliage and wildlife to substantial economic losses and the tragic loss of human lives. Despite the existence of substantial literature on the detection of active forest fires, numerous potential research avenues in forest fire management, such as preventative measures and ancillary effects of forest fires, remain largely underexplored. This paper undertakes a systematic review of these underexplored areas in forest fire research, meticulously categorizing them into distinct phases, namely pre-fire, during-fire, and post-fire stages. The pre-fire phase encompasses the assessment of fire risk, analysis of fuel properties, and other activities aimed at preventing or reducing the risk of forest fires. The during-fire phase includes activities aimed at reducing the impact of active forest fires, such as the detection and localization of active fires, optimization of wildfire suppression methods, and prediction of the behavior of active fires. The post-fire phase involves analyzing the impact of forest fires on various aspects, such as the extent of damage in forest areas, post-fire regeneration of forests, impact on wildlife, economic losses, and health impacts from byproducts produced during burning. A comprehensive understanding of the three stages is imperative for effective forest fire management and mitigation of the impact of forest fires on both ecological systems and human well-being. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods have garnered much attention in the cyber-physical systems domain in recent times leading to their adoption in decision-making in diverse applications including disaster management. This paper explores the current state of AI/ML applications for managing the activities in the aforementioned phases of forest fire. While conventional machine learning and deep learning methods have been extensively explored for the prevention, detection, and management of forest fires, a systematic classification of these methods into distinct AI research domains is conspicuously absent. This paper gives a comprehensive overview of the state of forest fire research across more recent and prominent AI/ML disciplines, including big data, classical machine learning, computer vision, explainable AI, generative AI, natural language processing, optimization algorithms, and time series forecasting. By providing a detailed overview of the potential areas of research and identifying the diverse ways AI/ML can be employed in forest fire research, this paper aims to serve as a roadmap for future investigations in this domain.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, computer vision, deep learning, during-fire activities, forest fire management, machine learning, pre-fire activities, post-fire activities

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Authors: Muhammad Saad Aslam

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In 2021, our organization has launched our proprietary mobile App i.e. Farm Intelligence platform, an industrial-first precision agriculture solution, to Pakistan. It was piloted at 47 locations (spanning around 1,200 hectares of land), addressing growers’ pain points by bringing the benefits of precision agriculture to their doorsteps. This year, we have extended its reach by more than 10 times (nearly 130,000 hectares of land) in almost 600 locations across the country. The project team selected highly infested areas to set up traps, which then enabled the sales team to initiate evidence-based conversations with the grower community about preventive crop protection products that includes pesticides and insecticides. Mega farmer meeting field visits and demonstrations plots coupled with extensive marketing activities, were setup to include farmer community. With the help of App real-time pest monitoring (using heat maps and infestation prediction through predictive analytics) we have equipped our growers with on spot insights that will help them optimize pesticide applications. Heat maps allow growers to identify infestation hot spots to fine-tune pesticide delivery, while predictive analytics enable preventive application of pesticides before the situation escalates. Ultimately, they empower growers to keep their crops safe for a healthy harvest.

Keywords: precision pest management, precision agriculture, real time pest tracking, pest forecasting

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Authors: M. Hosseinnezhad, K. Gharanjig

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Natural dyes, extracted from black carrot and bramble, were utilized as photosensitizers to prepare dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). Spectrophotometric studies of the natural dyes in solution and on a titanium dioxide substrate were carried out in order to assess changes in the status of the dyes. The results show that the bathochromic shift is seen on the photo-electrode substrate. The chemical binding of the natural dyes at the surface photo-electrode were increased by the chelating effect of the Ti(IV) ions. The cyclic voltammetry results showed that all extracts are suitable to be performed in DSSCs. Finally, photochemical performance and stability of DSSCs based on natural dyes were studied. The DSSCs sensitized by black carrot extract have been reported to achieve up to Jsc=1.17 mAcm^-2, Voc= 0.55 V, FF= 0.52, η=0.34%, whereas Bramble extract can obtain up to Jsc=2.24 mAcm^-2, Voc= 0.54 V, FF= 0.57, η=0.71%. The power conversion efficiency was obtained from the mixed dyes in DSSCs. The power conversion efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells using mixed Black carrot and Bramble dye is the average of the their efficiency in single DSSCs.

Keywords: anthocyanin, dye-sensitized solar cells, green energy, optical materials

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Authors: Nada Alqadri, Omaima Nasir

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Natural compounds are an important source of potential inhibitors; they have a lot of pharma potential with less adverse effects. The effective antiviral activities of natural products have been proved in different studies. The outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei, in December 2019, coronavirus has had a significant impact on people's health and lives. Based on previous studies, natural products can be introduced as preventive and therapeutic agents in the fight against COVID-19; considering that no food or supplement has been authorized to prevent COVID-19, individuals continue to search for and consume specific herbs, foods, and commercial supplements for this purpose. This study will be aimed to estimate the uses of herbal and natural products during the COVID-19 infection to determine their usage reasons and evaluate their potential side effects. An online cross-sectional survey of different participants will be conducted and will be a focus on respondents’ chronic disease histories, socio-dmographic characteristics, and frequency and trends of using these products. Descriptive and univariate analyses will be performed to determine prevalence and associations between various products used and respondents’ socio-demographic data. Relationships will be tested using Pearson’s chi-square test or an exact probability test. Our main findings will give evidence of beneficial uses of natural products and herbal medicine as prophylactic and will be a vigorous approach to stop or at least slow down COVID-19 infection and transmission. This will be of great interest of public health, and the results of our study will lend health officials better control on the current pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, herbs, natural products, saudi arabia

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Eun-Hak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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This study analyzed and visualized the rental and return data of the public bike sharing system in Seoul, Ttareungyi, from September 2015 to October 2017. With the surge of system users, the number of times of collection and distribution in 2017 increased by three times compared to 2016. The city plans to deploy about 20,000 public bicycles by the end of 2017 to expand the system. Based on about 3.3 million historical data, we calculated the average trip time and the number of trips from one station to another station. The mobility patterns between stations are graphically displayed using R and Tableau. Demand for public bike sharing system is heavily influenced by day and weather. As a result of plotting the number of rentals and returns of some stations on weekdays and weekends at intervals of one hour, there was a difference in rental patterns. As a result of analysis of the rental and return patterns by time of day, there were a lot of returns at the morning peak and more rentals at the afternoon peak at the center of the city. It means that stock of bikes varies largely in the time zone and public bikes should be rebalanced timely. The result of this study can be applied as a primary data to construct the demand forecasting function of the station when establishing the rebalancing strategy of the public bicycle.

Keywords: demand forecasting, mobility patterns, public bike sharing system, visualization

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Authors: Vathanachannbo Veth, Ilan Ich, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Layheang Song, Sophal Try, Chantha Oeurng

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Climate change is one of the major global challenges inducing disaster risks and threatening livelihoods and communities through adverse impacts on food and water security, ecosystems, and services. Prek Thnot River Basin of Cambodia is one of the largest tributaries in the Lower Mekong that has been exposed to hazards and disasters, particularly floods and is said to be the effect of climate change. Therefore, the assessment of precipitation and streamflow changes under the effect of climate change was proposed in this river basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and different flow indices under baseline (1997 to 2011) and climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with three General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL, GISS, and IPSL) in two time-horizons: near future (the 2030s: 2021 to 2040) and medium future (2060s: 2051 to 2070). Both intensity and frequency indices compared with the historical extreme rainfall indices significantly change in the GFDL under the RCP8.5 for both 2030s and 2060s. The average rate change of Rx1day, Rx10day, SDII, and R20mm in the 2030s and 2060s of both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was found to increase in GFDL and decrease in both GISS and IPSL. The mean percentage change of the flow analyzed in the IHA tool (Group1) indicated that the flow in the Prek Thnot River increased in GFDL for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in both 2030s and 2060s, oppositely in GISS, the flow decreases. Moreover, the IPSL affected the flow by increasing in five months (January, February, October, November, and December), and in the other seven months, the flow decreased accordingly. This study provides water resources managers and policymakers with a wide range of precipitation and water flow projections within the Prek Thnot River Basin in the context of plausible climate change scenarios.

Keywords: IHA, climate change, disaster risk, Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia

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Authors: Laura Seppälä, Ana Nuutinen

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Environmental concerns are increasing the interest in the potential uses of natural dyes. Natural dyes are more safe and environmentally friendly option than synthetic dyes. However, one must be also cautious with natural dyes, because, for example, some dyestuff such as plants or mushrooms, as well as some mordants are poisonous. By natural dyes we mean dyes that are derived from plants, fungi, bark, lichens, algae, insects, and minerals. Different plant parts, such as stems, leaves, flowers, roots, bark, berries, fruits, and cones, can be utilized for textile dyeing and printing, pigment manufacture, and other processes depending on the season. They may be utilized to produce distinctive colour tones that are challenging to do with synthetic dyes. This adds value to textiles and makes them stand out. Synthetic dyes quickly replaced natural dyes, after being developed in the middle of the 19th century, but natural dyes have remained the dyeing method of crafters until recently. This research examines the commercial solutions for natural dyes in many parts of the world, such as Europe, the United States, South America, Africa, Asia, New Zealand, and Australia. This study aims to determine the commercial status of natural dyes. Each continent has its own traditions and specific dyestuffs. The availability of natural dyes can vary depending on several aspects, including plant species, temperature, and harvesting techniques, which poses a challenge to the work of designers and crafters. While certain plants may only provide dyes during specific seasons, others may do so continuously. To find the ideal time to collect natural dyes, it is critical to research various plant species and their harvesting techniques. Furthermore, to guarantee the quality and colour of the dye, plant material must be handled and processed properly. This research was conducted via an internet search, and results were searched systematically for commercial stakeholders in the field. The research question looked at commercial players in the field of natural dyes. This qualitative case study interpreted the data using thematic analysis. Each webpage was screenshotted and analyzed in reflection on to research question. Online content analysis means systematically coding and analyzing qualitative data. The most evident result was that the natural dyes interest in different parts of the World. There are clothing collections dyed with natural dyes, dyestuff stores, and courses for natural dyeing. This article presents the designers who work with natural dyes and actors who are involved with the natural dye industry. Several websites emphasized the safety and environmental benefits of natural dyes. Many of them included eye-catching images of textiles dyed naturally, and the colours of such dyes are thought to be attractive since they are beautiful and natural hues. The search did not find big-scale industrial solutions for natural dyes, but there were several instances of dyeing with natural dyes. Understanding the players, designers, and stakeholders in the natural dye business is the purpose of this article. The comprehension of the current state of the art illustrates the direction that the natural dye business is currently taking.

Keywords: commercial solutions, environmental issues, key stakeholders, natural dyes, sustainability, textile dyeing

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Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

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Authors: Mengmeng Liu, J. David Frost

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Interstate highway system within the Atlanta Perimeter plays an important role in residents’ daily life. The serious influence of Atlanta I-85 Collapses implies that transportation system in the region lacks a cohesive and comprehensive transportation plan. Therefore, disaster resilience analysis of the transportation system is necessary. Resilience is the system’s capability to persist or to maintain transportation services when exposed to changes or shocks. This paper analyzed the resilience of the whole transportation system within the Perimeter and see how removing interstates within the Perimeter will affect the resilience of the transportation system. The data used in the paper are Atlanta transportation networks and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics data. First, we calculate the traffic flow on each road section based on LEHD data assuming each trip travel along the shortest travel time paths. Second, we calculate the measure of resilience, which is flow-based connectivity and centrality of the transportation network, and see how they will change if we remove each section of interstates from the current transportation system. Finally, we get the resilience function curve of the interstates and identify the most resilient interstates section. The resilience analysis results show that the framework of calculation resilience is effective and can provide some useful information for the transportation planning and sustainability analysis of the transportation infrastructures.

Keywords: connectivity, interstate highway system, network analysis, resilience analysis

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Authors: Onyimonyi Anselm Ego, Obi-Keguna Christy, Dim Emmanuel Chinonso, Ugwuanyi Evelyn, Uzochukwu Ifeanyi Emmanuel

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A total of 144 Shaver Brown Layers in their sixteenth week of lay were used in a twelve weeks study to evaluate the egg yolk and serum cholesterol of the birds when fed varying dietary combinations of garlic and natural cocoa powder. The birds were randomly assigned into nine dietary treatments with 16 birds per treatment. Each bird was housed separately in a cage measuring 45 cm x 35 cm in an open sided battery cage house typical of the tropics. A standard poultry mash diet with 16.5% CP and 2800 KcalME/kg was formulated as the basal ration which also served as the control diet. Garlic and natural cocoa powder were incorporated in varying combinations (50 g or 100 g/100 kg of feed) in the remaining eight treatments. Weekly data of egg weight, egg length, egg diameter, yolk weight, albumen weight and hen day egg production were kept. Egg yolk and serum cholesterol levels were determined using a Randox kit. Results showed that birds receiving garlic and natural cocoa powder had significantly (P<0.05) reduced egg and albumen weight as compared to control birds. Hen day production of the birds was also significantly higher than control birds. Egg yolk and serum cholesterol of birds receiving the garlic and natural cocoa powder were significantly (P<0.05) lower than the control. Serum cholesterol levels showed decline in the birds receiving garlic and natural cocoa powder. The least yolk cholesterol level of 160 mg/dl was observed in birds receiving 50g garlic and 50 g natural cocoa powder (Treatment 5). Control birds had an egg cholesterol level of 245.45 mg/dl. It was concluded that incorporating garlic and natural cocoa powder in the diets of laying hens can result in a significant reduction in the egg and serum cholesterol levels.

Keywords: egg, serum, cholesterol, garlic

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Archna Mall, Neelam Agrawal, Hari O. Saxena, Bhavana Sharma

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Butea monosperma occurs widely throughout central Indian states. Eco-friendly natural dyes were isolated in aqueous medium from leaves, bark and flowers of this plant. These dyes were used for dyeing on cotton fabric using various chemical (potassium aluminium sulphate, potassium dichromate, ferrous sulphate, stannous chloride & tannic acid) and natural mordants (rinds of Terminallia bellerica & Terminalia chebula fruits and shells of Prunus dulcis & Juglans regia nuts). Dyeing was carried out using the pre-mordanting technique. Large range of beautiful shades in terms of hue and darkness were recorded because of varying mordant concentrations and combinations. More importantly dyed fabrics registered varying the degree of colour fastness properties to washing (1-3, colour change and 4-5, colour staining), light (2-4), rubbing (4-5, dry and 3-5, wet) and perspiration (1-4, colour change and 4-5, colour staining). Thus, along with flowers which are traditionally known for natural dyes, the leaves and bark may also find their place in textile industries.

Keywords: Butea monosperma, cotton, mordants, natural dyes

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Authors: N. Mehrotra, V. Ahuja, N. Sridharan

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Resilience is an all hazard and a proactive approach, require a multidisciplinary input in the inter related variables of the city system. This research based to identify and operationalize indicators for assessment in domain of institutions, infrastructure and knowledge, all three operating in task oriented community networks. This paper gives a brief account of the methodology developed for assessment of Urban Resilience and its prioritized components for a target population within a newly planned urban complex integrating Surajpur and Kasna village as nodes. People’s perception of Urban Resilience has been examined by conducting questionnaire survey among the target population of Greater Noida. As defined by experts, Urban Resilience of a place is considered to be both a product and process of operation to regain normalcy after an event of disturbance of certain level. Based on this methodology, six indicators are identified that contribute to perception of urban resilience both as in the process of evolution and as an outcome. The relative significance of 6 R’ has also been identified. The dependency factor of various resilience indicators have been explored in this paper, which helps in generating new perspective for future research in disaster management. Based on the stated factors this methodology can be applied to assess urban resilience requirements of a well planned town, which is not an end in itself, but calls for new beginnings.

Keywords: disaster, resilience, system, urban

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Authors: Hellal Abdelkader, Chafaa Salah, Boudjemaa Fouzia

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A new, convenient, and high yielding procedure for the preparation of diethyl α-aminophosphonates in water via Kabachnik-Fields reaction by one-pot reaction of aromatic aldehydes, ortho-aminophenols, and dialkylphosphites in the presence of a low catalytic amount of citric, malic, tartaric, and oxalic acids as a natural, bi-functional, and highly stable catalyst is described, the obtained products were characterized by elemental analyses, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, FTIR, Uv-Vis spectral data, NMR-C, NMR-H, and NMR-P analyses.

Keywords: α-aminophosphonates, aminophenols, natural acids, aqueous media, Kabachnik-Fields reaction

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Authors: Mkhokheli Sithole, Brenda N. Muchapondwa

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Food security is becoming a critical issue for people residing mainly in the rural areas where frequent droughts interrupt food production, reduce income, compromise the ability to save and erode livelihoods. This tends to increase the vulnerability of poor households to food and income insecurity, hence, malnutrition. There is an emerging need for DRR strategies to complement the existing rain fed crop production based livelihoods. One of such strategies employed by the community of Nerumedzo in Bikita district is the harvesting of Encosternum delegorguei insect. This article analyses the livelihood impacts of Encosternum delegorguei insect as a DRR strategy. The research used a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The insect samples were tested in the laboratory for their nutritional composition while surveys were done on a sample of 40 community members. Participatory observations and 5 focus group discussions were also done. The results revealed that harvesting the Encosternum delegorguei insects provides a livelihood for the locals by complementing crop production thereby mitigating potential negative effects of frequent droughts. The insects are now a significant source of income to poor households in the community.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, livelihoods, human, social sciences

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Authors: Mitchell Gohnert

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This paper reviews some fundamental concepts of structural optimization, which is focused on the shape of the structure. Bending stresses produce high peak stresses at each face of the member, and therefore, substantially more material is required to resist bending. The shape of the structure has a profound effect on stress levels. Stress may be reduced dramatically by simply changing the shape to accommodate natural stress flow. The main objective of structural optimization is to direct the thrust line along the axis of the member. Optimal shapes include the catenary arch or dome, triangular shapes, and columns. If the natural flow of stress matches the shape of the structures, the most optimal shape is determined. Structures, however, must resist multiple load patterns. An optimal shape is still possible by ensuring that the thrust lines fall within the middle third of the member.

Keywords: optimization, natural structures, shells, catenary, domes, arches

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Authors: Halefom Kidane

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This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Zhiwen Yang, Jingyuan Li, Zhenkai Xie, Jian Ling, Jiguang Wang, Mengliang Li

Abstract:

To reflect the effects of different emission control strategies, such as retrofitting after-treatment system and replacing with natural gas-fueled vehicles, on particle number (PN), particle mass (PM) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions emitted by urban bus, a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) was employed herein to conduct real-world driving emission measurements on a diesel oxidation catalytic converter (DOC) and catalyzed diesel particulate filter (CDPF) retrofitting China IV diesel bus, a China IV diesel bus, and a China V natural gas bus. The results show that both tested diesel buses possess markedly advantages in NOx emission control when compared to the lean-burn natural gas bus equipped without any NOx after-treatment system. As to PN and PM, only the DOC+CDPF retrofitting diesel bus exhibits enormous benefits on emission control relate to the natural gas bus, especially the normal diesel bus. Meanwhile, the differences in PM and PN emissions between retrofitted and normal diesel buses generally increase with the increase in vehicle-specific power (VSP). Furthermore, the differences in PM emissions, especially those in the higher VSP ranges, are more significant than those in PN. In addition, the maximum peak PN particle size (32 nm) of the retrofitted diesel bus was significantly lower than that of the normal diesel bus (100 nm). These phenomena indicate that the CDPF retrofitting can effectively reduce diesel bus exhaust particle emissions, especially those with large particle sizes.

Keywords: CDPF, diesel, natural gas, real-world emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Yuichi Miyamoto

Abstract:

In regards to the energy sector in the modern period, two points were raised. First is a vast and growing energy demand, and second is an environmental impact associated with it. The enormous consumption of fossil fuel to the mobile unit is leading to its rapid depletion. Nuclear power is not the only problem. A modal shift that utilizes personal transporters and independent power, in order to realize a sustainable society, is very effective. The paper proposes that the world will continue to work on this. Energy of the future society, innovation in battery technology and the use of natural energy is a big key. And it is also necessary in order to save on energy consumption.

Keywords: natural energy, modal shift, personal transportation, battery

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

Abstract:

The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

Abstract:

This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Hao Yuan, Yongjian Shen, Xiangjun He, Yuheng Li, Zhouzhou Zhang, Pengyu Zhang, Minkang Cai

Abstract:

Remote sensing data can provide support for decision-making in disaster assessment or disaster relief. The traditional processing methods of sensitive targets in remote sensing mapping are mainly based on manual retrieval and image editing tools, which are inefficient. Methods based on deep learning for sensitive target hiding are faster and more flexible. But these methods have disadvantages in training time and cost of calculation. This paper proposed a target hiding model Self Attention (SA) Deepfill, which used self-attention modules to replace part of gated convolution layers in image inpainting. By this operation, the calculation amount of the model becomes smaller, and the performance is improved. And this paper adds free-form masks to the model’s training to enhance the model’s universal. The experiment on an open remote sensing dataset proved the efficiency of our method. Moreover, through experimental comparison, the proposed method can train for a longer time without over-fitting. Finally, compared with the existing methods, the proposed model has lower computational weight and better performance.

Keywords: remote sensing mapping, image inpainting, self-attention mechanism, target hiding

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Mirza Popovac

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of the vortex tubes towards increasing the efficiency of high temperature heat pumps based on natural refrigerants, by recovering a part of the expansion work within the refrigerant cycle. To this purpose the 3D Navier-Stokes solver is used to perform a set of numerical simulations, investigating the vortex tube performance. Firstly, the fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics are analyzed for standard configurations of vortex tubes, and the obtained results are validated against the experimental and numerical data available in literature. Subsequently, different geometry specifications are analyzed, as well as the interplay between relevant heat pump operating conditions and the properties of natural refrigerants. Finally, the characteristic curve of performance will be derived for investigated vortex tubes specifications when used within high temperature heat pumps.

Keywords: heat pump, vortex tube, CFD, natural refrigerant

Procedia PDF Downloads 145