Search results for: fire dynamics simulation (FDS)

Authors: Vassilis Argyropoulos, Magda Nikolaraizi, Maria Papazafiri

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This study describes a series of learning workshops, which took place within CUIDAR project. The workshops aimed to empower children to share their experiences and views in relation to natural hazards and disasters. The participants in the workshops were ten primary school students who had severe visual impairments or multiple disabilities and visual impairments (MDVI). The main objectives of the workshops were: a) to promote access of the children through the use of appropriate educational material such as texts in braille, enlarged text, tactile maps and the implementation of differentiated instruction, b) to make children aware regarding their rights to have access to information and to participate in planning and decision-making especially in relation to disaster education programs, and c) to encourage children to have an active role during the workshops through child-led and experiential learning activities. The children expressed their views regarding the meaning of hazards and disasters. Following, they discussed their experiences and emotions regarding natural hazards and disasters, and they chose to place the emphasis on a hazard, which was more pertinent to them, their community and their region, namely fires. Therefore, they recalled fires that have caused major disasters, and they discussed about the impact that these fires had on their community or on their country. Furthermore, they were encouraged to become aware regarding their own role and responsibility to prevent a fire or get prepared and know how to behave if a fire occurs. They realized that prevention and preparation are a matter of personal responsibility. They also felt the responsibility to inform their own families. Finally, they met important people involved in fire protection such as rescuers and firefighters and had the opportunity to carry dialogues. In conclusion, through child led workshops, experiential and accessible activities, the students had the opportunity to share their own experiences, to express their views and their questions, to broaden their knowledge and to realize their personal responsibility in disaster risk reduction, specifically in relation to fires.

Keywords: accessibility, children, disasters, visual impairment

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Javad Khazaei, Rick Blum

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Distributed control is an efficient and flexible approach for coordination of multi-agent systems. One of the main challenges in designing a distributed controller is identifying the governing dynamics of the dynamical systems. Data-driven system identification is currently undergoing a revolution. With the availability of high-fidelity measurements and historical data, model-free identification of dynamical systems can facilitate the control design without tedious modeling of high-dimensional and/or nonlinear systems. This paper develops a distributed control design using consensus theory for linear and nonlinear dynamical systems using sparse identification of system dynamics. Compared with existing consensus designs that heavily rely on knowing the detailed system dynamics, the proposed model-free design can accurately capture the dynamics of the system with available measurements and input data and provide guaranteed performance in consensus and tracking problems. Heterogeneous damped oscillators are chosen as examples of dynamical system for validation purposes.

Keywords: consensus tracking, distributed control, model-free control, sparse identification of dynamical systems

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Authors: Julio Macedo

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Several methodologies are now available to conceive the improvements of a process so that it becomes competitive as for example total quality, process reengineering, six sigma, define measure analysis improvement control method. These improvements are of different nature and can be external to the process represented by an optimization model or a discrete simulation model. In addition, the process stakeholders are several and have different desired performances for the process. Hence, the methodologies above do not have a tool to aid in the conception of the required improvements. In order to fill this void we suggest the use of intelligent reference models. A reference model is a set of qualitative differential equations and an objective function that minimizes the gap between the current and the desired performance indexes of the process. The reference models are intelligent so when they receive the current state of the problematic process and the desired performance indexes they generate the required improvements for the problematic process. The reference models are fuzzy cognitive maps added with an objective function and trained using the improvements implemented by the high performance firms. Experiments done in a set of students show the reference models allow them to conceive more improvements than students that do not use these models.

Keywords: continuous improvement, fuzzy cognitive maps, process competitiveness, qualitative simulation, system dynamics

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Authors: Bo Liu, Liangtian Gao, Idrees Qasim

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The impact of the storm leads to accidents even in the case of vessels that meet the computed safety criteria for stability. That is why, in order to clarify the causes of the accident and shipwreck, it is necessary to study the dynamics of the ship under the complex sudden impact of external forces. The task is to determine the movement and landing of the ship in the complex and sudden impact of external forces, i.e. when the ship's load changes over a relatively short period of time. For the solution, a technique was used to study the ship's dynamics, which is based on the compilation of a system of differential equations of motion. A coordinate system was adopted for the equation of motion of the hull and the determination of external forces. As a numerical method of integration, the 4^th order Runge-Kutta method was chosen. The results of the calculation show that dynamic deviations were lower for high-altitude vessels. The study of the movement of the hull under a difficult situation is performed: receiving of cargo, impact of a flurry of wind and subsequent displacement of the cargo. The risk of overturning and flooding was assessed.

Keywords: dynamics, statics, roll, trim, vertical displacement, dynamic load, tilt

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Authors: Maria Nabakooza

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Efficient agricultural production is very significant in attaining food sufficiency and security in the world. Many methods are employed by the farmers while attending to their gardens, from manual to mechanized, with Farmers range from subsistence to commercial depending on the motive. This creates a lacuna in the modes of operation in this field as different farmers will take different approaches. This has led to many e-Learning courses being introduced to address this gap. Many e-learning systems use advanced network technologies like Web services, grid computing to promote learning at any time and any place. Many of the existing systems have not inculcated the applicability of the modules in them, the tools to be used and further access whether they are the right tools for the right job. A thorough investigation into the applicability of adaptive eLearning in the agricultural sector has not been taken into account; enabling the assumption that eLearning is the right tool for boosting productivity in this sector. This study comes in to provide an insight and thorough analysis as to whether adaptive eLearning is the right tool for boosting agricultural productivity. The Simulation will adopt a system dynamics modeling approach as a way of examining causality and effect relationship. This study will provide teachers with an insight into which tools they should adopt in designing, and provide students the opportunities to achieve an orderly learning experience through adaptive navigating e-learning services.

Keywords: agriculture, adaptive, e-learning, technology

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Authors: Chariton Christou, David Cornwell

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Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is the type of contract that is being used widely in our time. The financial crisis made the governments tightfisted and they do not have the resources to participate in a development of a field. Therefore, more and more countries introduce the PSC. The companies have the power and the money to develop the field with their own way. The main problem is the transparency of oil and gas companies especially in the PSC and how this can be achieved. Many discussions have been made especially in the U.K. What we are suggesting is a dynamic financial simulation with the help of a flow meter. The flow meter will count the production of each field every day (it will be installed in a pipeline). The production will be the basic input of the simulation. It will count the profit, the costs and more according to the information of the flow meter. In addition it will include the terms of the contract and the costs that have been paid. By all these parameters the simulation will be able to present in real time the information of a field (taxes, employees, R-factor). By this simulation the company will share some information with the government but not all of them. The government will know the taxes that should be paid and what is the sharing percentage of it. All of the other information could be confidential for the company. Furthermore, oil company could control the R-factor by changing the production each day to maximize its sharing percentages and as a result of this the profit. This idea aims to change the way that governments 'control' oil companies and bring a transparency evolution in the industry. With the help of a simulation every country could be next to the company and have a better collaboration.

Keywords: production sharing contracts, transparency, simulation

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Aibek Kukpayev, Dhawal Shah

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Combustion of sour fuels containing high amount of sulfur leads to the formation of sulfur oxides, which adversely harm the environment and has a negative impact on human health. Considering this, several legislations have been imposed to bring down the sulfur content in fuel to less than 10 ppm. In recent years, novel deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have been developed to achieve deep desulfurization, particularly to extract thiophenic compounds from liquid fuels. These novel DESs, considered as analogous to ionic liquids are green, eco-friendly, inexpensive, and sustainable. We herein, using molecular dynamic simulation, analyze the interactions of metal-based DESs with model oil consisting of thiophenic compounds. The DES used consists of polyethylene glycol (PEG-200) as a hydrogen bond donor, choline chloride (ChCl) or tetrabutyl ammonium chloride (TBAC) as a hydrogen bond acceptor, and cobalt chloride (CoCl₂) as metal salt. In particular, the combination of ChCl: PEG-200:CoCl₂ at a ratio 1:2:1 and the combination of TBAC:PEG-200:CoCl₂ at a ratio 1:2:0.25 were simulated, separately, with model oil consisting of octane and thiophenes at 25ᵒC and 1 bar. The results of molecular dynamics simulations were analyzed in terms of interaction energies between different components. The simulations revealed a stronger interaction between DESs/thiophenes as compared with octane/thiophenes, suggestive of an efficient desulfurization process. In addition, our analysis suggests that the choice of hydrogen bond acceptor strongly influences the efficiency of the desulfurization process. Taken together, the results also show the importance of the metal ion, although present in small amount, in the process, and the role of the polymer in desulfurization of the model fuel.

Keywords: deep eutectic solvents, desulfurization, molecular dynamics simulations, thiophenes

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Authors: Ormal Lishi

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This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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Authors: Joshua van Staden, Dane Brown, Karen Bradshaw

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Gun violence is a significant problem in modern-day society. Early detection of carried handguns through closed-circuit television (CCTV) can aid in preventing potential gun violence. However, CCTV operators have a limited attention span. Machine learning approaches to automating the detection of dangerous gun carriers provide a way to aid CCTV operators in identifying these individuals. This study provides insight into the relationship between human key points extracted using human pose estimation (HPE) and their intention to fire a weapon. We examine the feature importance of each keypoint and their correlations. We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the feature space and optimize detection. Finally, we run a set of classifiers to determine what form of classifier performs well on this data. We find that hips, shoulders, and knees tend to be crucial aspects of the human pose when making these predictions. Furthermore, the horizontal position plays a larger role than the vertical position. Of the 66 key points, nine principal components could be used to make nonlinear classifications with 86% accuracy. Furthermore, linear classifications could be done with 85% accuracy, showing that there is a degree of linearity in the data.

Keywords: feature engineering, human pose, machine learning, security

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Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine

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Authors: Adedayo Oke Adelakun

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The chaotic dynamics of periodically forced oscillators with smooth potential has been extensively investigated via theoretical, numerical and experimental simulations. With the advent of the study of chaotic dynamics by means of method of multiple time scale analysis, Melnikov theory, bifurcation diagram, Poincare's map, bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents, it has become necessary to seek for a better understanding of nonlinear oscillator with noisy term. In this paper, we examine the influence of noise on complex dynamical behaviour of periodically forced F6 - Duffing oscillator for specific choice of noisy parameters. The inclusion of noisy term improves the dynamical behaviour of the oscillator which may have wider application in secure communication than smooth potential.

Keywords: hierarchical structure, periodically forced oscillator, noisy parameters, dynamical behaviour, F6 - duffing oscillator

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Authors: Miriam Sosa-Díaz, Faustino Sánchez-Garduño

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In population dynamics the study of both, the abundance and the spatial distribution of the populations in a given habitat, is a fundamental issue a From ecological point of view, the determination of the factors influencing such changes involves important problems. In this paper a mathematical model to describe the temporal dynamic and the spatiotemporal dynamic of the interaction of three populations (pollinators, plants and herbivores) is presented. The study we present is carried out by stages: 1. The temporal dynamics and 2. The spatio-temporal dynamics. In turn, each of these stages is developed by considering three cases which correspond to the dynamics of each type of interaction. For instance, for stage 1, we consider three ODE nonlinear systems describing the pollinator-plant, plant-herbivore and plant-pollinator-herbivore, interactions, respectively. In each of these systems different types of dynamical behaviors are reported. Namely, transcritical and pitchfork bifurcations, existence of a limit cycle, existence of a heteroclinic orbit, etc. For the spatiotemporal dynamics of the two mathematical models a novel factor are introduced. This consists in considering that both, the pollinators and the herbivores, move towards those places of the habitat where the plant population density is high. In mathematical terms, this means that the diffusive part of the pollinators and herbivores equations depend on the plant population density. The analysis of this part is presented by considering pairs of populations, i. e., the pollinator-plant and plant-herbivore interactions and at the end the two mathematical model is presented, these models consist of two coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. These are defined on a rectangular domain with the homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. We focused in the role played by the density dependent diffusion term into the coexistence of the populations. For both, the temporal and spatio-temporal dynamics, a several of numerical simulations are included.

Keywords: bifurcation, heteroclinic orbits, steady state, traveling wave

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Authors: Seid Ahmed Mohammed, Nedim Yalansiz

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Many historians hardly gave due attention for historical comparison as their methods of study. They were still stunt supporter of the use of their own historical research method in their studies. But this method lacks the way to analyze some worldwide dynamics of events in comparative perspectives. Some dynamics like revolution, modernization, societal change and transformation needs broader analysis for broadening our historical knowledge’s by comparing and contrasting of the causes, courses and consequences of such dynamics historical developments in the world at large. In this paper, our study focuses up on ‘the dynamics of modernization’ and the challenge of modernity of the old regimes. For instance, countries like Turkey, Ethiopia, China, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and Thailand have almost the same dynamics in facing the challenge of modernity. In such countries, the old regimes tried to introduce modernization and ‘reform from the above’ in order to tackle the gradual decline of the empire that faced strong challenge from the outside world. The other similarity of them was that as the rulers attempted to introduce the modernization reforms the old traditional and the religious institutions strongly opposed the reforms as the reforms alienated the power and prestige of the traditional classes. Similarly, the rules introduced modernization for maintaining their own unique socio-cultural and religious dynamics not as borrowing and acculturation of the west by complete destruction of their own. Therefore, this paper attempted to give a comparative analysis of two modernizers Tewodros II (1855-1868) of Ethiopia and Sultan Selim III (1739-1808) of Ottoman Turkey who tried to modernize their empire unfortunately they paid their precious life as a result of modernization.

Keywords: comparative history, Ethiopia, modernization, Ottoman Turkey

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Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

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The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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Authors: Mohammed Ali

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In this paper, evaluation of flexible manufacturing system is made under different manufacturing strategies. The objective of this paper is to test the impact of pallets and routing flexibility on system performance operating at different sequencing rules, dispatching rules and at unbalanced load condition. A computer simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects of aforementioned manufacturing strategies on the make-span performance of flexible manufacturing system. The impact of number of pallets is shown with the different levels of routing flexibility. In this paper, the same manufacturing system is modeled under different combination of sequencing and dispatching rules. A series of simulation experiments are conducted and results analyzed. The result of the simulation shows that there is impact of pallets and routing flexibility on the performance of the system.

Keywords: flexibility, flexible manufacturing system, pallets, make-span, simulation

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Authors: Cassandra Hansen, Paul Doherty, Chris Ferner, German Whitley, Holly Torpey

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Wildfire is a natural and inevitable occurrence, yet changing climatic conditions have increased the severity, frequency, and risk to human populations in the wildland/urban interface (WUI) of the Western United States. Rapid dissemination of accurate wildfire information is critical to both the Incident Management Team (IMT) and the affected community. With the advent of increasingly sophisticated information systems, GIS can now be used as a web platform for sharing geographic information in new and innovative ways, such as virtual story map applications. Crowdsourced information can be extraordinarily useful when coupled with authoritative information. Information abounds in the form of social media, emergency alerts, radio, and news outlets, yet many of these resources lack a spatial component when first distributed. In this study, we describe how twenty-eight volunteer GIS professionals across nine Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) sourced, curated, and distributed Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) from authoritative social media accounts focused on disseminating information about wildfires and public safety. The combination of fire progression maps with VGI incident information helps answer three critical questions about an incident, such as: where the first started. How and why the fire behaved in an extreme manner and how we can learn from the fire incident's story to respond and prepare for future fires in this area. By adding a spatial component to that shared information, this team has been able to visualize shared information about wildfire starts in an interactive map that answers three critical questions in a more intuitive way. Additionally, long-term social and technical impacts on communities are examined in relation to situational awareness of the disaster through map layers and agency links, the number of views in a particular region of a disaster, community involvement and sharing of this critical resource. Combined with a GIS platform and disaster VGI applications, this workflow and information become invaluable to communities within the WUI and bring spatial awareness for disaster preparedness, response, mitigation, and recovery. This study highlights progression maps as the ultimate storytelling mechanism through incident case studies and demonstrates the impact of VGI and sophisticated applied cartographic methodology make this an indispensable resource for authoritative information sharing.

Keywords: storytelling, wildfire progression maps, volunteered geographic information, spatial and temporal

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Authors: Mehdi Nakisa, Adi Maimun, Yasser M. Ahmed, Fatemeh Behrouzi

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Squat is the reduction in under-keel clearance between a vessel at-rest and underway due to the increased flow of water past the moving body. The forward motion of the ship induces a relative velocity between the ship and the surrounding water that causes a water level depression in which the ship sinks. The problem of ship squat is one among the crucial factors affecting the navigation of ships in restricted waters. This article investigates the LNG ship squat, its effects on flow streamlines around the ship hull and ship behavior and motion using computational fluid dynamics which is applied by Ansys-Fluent.

Keywords: ship squat, CFD, confined, mechanic

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Authors: Zina Ghiloufi, Tahar Khir

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A transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to determine the velocity and temperature distribution in different positions cold room during pre-cooling of dates. The turbulence model used is the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) with the standard wall function, the air. The numerical results obtained show that cooling rate is not uniform inside the room; the product at the medium of room has a slower cooling rate. This cooling heterogeneity has a large effect on the energy consumption during cold storage.

Keywords: CFD, cold room, cooling rate, dDates, numerical simulation, k-ω (SST)

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Authors: Kyung Min Kang, Peng Mou, Dong Xiang, Yong Yang, Gang Shen

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In this paper, planet pin parallelism error, which is one of manufacturing error of planet carrier, is employed as a main variable to influence planet load sharing factor. This error is categorize two group: (i) pin parallelism error with rotation on the axis perpendicular to the tangent of base circle of gear(x axis rotation in this paper) (ii) pin parallelism error with rotation on the tangent axis of base circle of gear(y axis rotation in this paper). For this study, the planetary gear system in 1.5MW wind turbine is applied and pure torsional rigid body model of this planetary gear is built using Solidworks and MSC.ADAMS. Based on quantified parallelism error and simulation model, dynamics simulation of planetary gear is carried out to obtain dynamic mesh load results with each type of error and load sharing factor is calculated with mesh load results. Load sharing factor formula and the suggestion for planetary reliability design is proposed with the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: planetary gears, planet load sharing, MSC. ADAMS, parallelism error

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Authors: Smriti Gour, Neelam Pandey

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The objective of this study was to describe and analyse the mutual relationship between the coping mechanisms used by the families of a child with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and family dynamics and the effect sibling interactions have on the dynamics and coping mechanisms in an urban setup. In-depth interviews were conducted for 25 families, with 4 members each in the Delhi NCR area in India. The families who were interviewed had a younger child who had received a diagnosis of ASD between the ages of 5-12. The in-depth questionnaires contained open-ended questions and the interviews were conducted separately for the mother, father and the typically developing sibling. The key findings of the study suggested that lack of communication was a common factor in most families (n=19) leading to other difficulties like stress and relationship dysfunction. It also fostered a fallacious perception of the relationship dynamics in the family in most of the interviewed families and changed depending on the family member being interviewed. In families where the typically developing elder sibling had a good relationship with the autistic child, the family dynamics were found to be more stable, and the overall family well-being was better maintained. The coping mechanisms employed by the families were also more positive and tended to work better if the typically developing sibling maintained a positive and interactive relationship with the parents and the autistic child. The type of coping mechanisms had a major impact on the relationship between the parents and in dictating the dynamics of the family of the child with ASD. Spirituality, professional help, family support and household help emerged to be the most effective coping mechanisms for the families, with spirituality emerging to be the most positive and effective coping mechanism in the families interviewed.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, coping mechanism, family dynamics, parental relationships, siblings

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Authors: Jacklyn Yek, Clara Tong, Shin Yuet Chong, Yee Yian Ong

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Background: While emergency manuals and cognitive aids (CA) have been used in high-hazard industries for decades, this has been a nascent field in healthcare. CAs can potentially offset the large cognitive load involved in crisis resource management and possibly facilitate the efficient performance of key steps in treatment. A crisis manual was developed based on local guidelines and the latest evidence-based information and introduced to a tertiary hospital setting in Singapore. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the crisis manual in guiding response and management of critical events. Methods: 7 surgical teams were recruited to participate in a series of simulated emergencies in high-fidelity operating room simulator over the period of April to June 2018. All teams consisted of a surgical consultant and medical officer/registrar, anesthesia consultant and medical officer/registrar; as well as a circulating, scrub and anesthetic nurse. Each team performed a simulated operation in which 1 or more of the crisis events occurred. The teams were randomly assigned to a scenario of the crisis manual and all teams were deemed to be equal in experience and knowledge. Before the simulation, teams were instructed on proper checklist use but the use of the checklist was optional. Results: 7 simulation sessions were performed, consisting of the following scenarios: Airway fire, Massive Transfusion Protocol, Malignant Hyperthermia, Eclampsia, and Difficult Airway. Out of the 7 surgical teams, 2 teams made use of the crisis manual – of which both teams had encountered a ‘Malignant Hyperthermia’ scenario. These team members reflected that the crisis manual assisted allowed them to work in a team, especially being able to involve the surgical doctors who were unfamiliar with the condition and management. A run chart plotted showed a possible upward trend, suggesting that with increasing awareness and training, staff would become more likely to initiate the use of the crisis manual. Conclusion: Despite the high volume load in this tertiary hospital, certain crises remain rare and clinicians are often caught unprepared. A crisis manual is an effective tool and easy-to-use repository that can improve patient outcome and encourage teamwork. With training, familiarity would allow clinicians to be increasingly comfortable with reaching out for the crisis manual. More simulation training would need to be conducted to determine its effectiveness.

Keywords: crisis resource management, high fidelity simulation training, medical errors, visual aids

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Authors: Anurag Sharma, Manoj Kumar, Ashima, Sooraj Parkash

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The work in this paper presents simulative comparison for different modulation formats such as NRZ, Manchester and CRZ in a 100 subscribers at 5 Gbps bit rate Gigabit Ethernet Passive Optical Network (GEPON) FTTH network. It is observed from the simulation results that the CRZ modulation format is best suited for the designed system. A link design for 1:100 splitter is used as Passive Optical Network (PON) element which creates communication between central offices to different users. The Bit Error Rate (BER) is found to be 2.8535e-10 at 5 Gbit/s systems for CRZ modulation format.

Keywords: PON , FTTH, OLT, ONU, CO, GEPON

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Authors: M. Rahimi, F. Corman

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This paper study the travel behavior of passengers in a public transport disruption under information provision strategies. We develop a within-day approach for multi-agent simulation to evaluate the behavior of the agents, under comprehensive scenarios through various information exposure, equilibrium, and non-equilibrium scenarios. In particular, we quantify the effects of information strategies in disruption situation on passengers’ satisfaction, number of involved agents, and the caused delay. An agent-based micro-simulation model (MATSim) is applied for the city of Zürich, Switzerland, for the purpose of activity-based simulation in a multimodal network. Statistic outcome is analysed for all the agents who may be involved in the disruption. Agents’ movement in the public transport network illustrates agents’ adaptations to available information about the disruption. Agents’ delays and utility reveal that information significantly affects agents’ satisfaction and delay in public transport disruption. Besides, while the earlier availability of the information causes the fewer consequent delay for the involved agents, however, it also leads to more amount of affected agents.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, disruption management, passengers’ behavior simulation, public transport

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Authors: D. Madhushanka, Y. Liu, H. C. Fernando

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Fires are one of the foremost factors of land surface disturbance in diverse ecosystems, causing soil erosion and land-cover changes and atmospheric effects affecting people's lives and properties. Generally, the severity of the fire is calculated as the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) index. This is performed manually by comparing two images obtained afterward. Then by using the bitemporal difference of the preprocessed satellite images, the dNBR is calculated. The burnt area is then classified as either unburnt (dNBR<0.1) or burnt (dNBR>= 0.1). Furthermore, Wildfire Severity Assessment (WSA) classifies burnt areas and unburnt areas using classification levels proposed by USGS and comprises seven classes. This procedure generates a burn severity report for the area chosen by the user manually. This study is carried out with the objective of producing an automated tool for the above-mentioned process, namely the World Wildfire Severity Assessment Tool (WWSAT). It is implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE), which is a free cloud-computing platform for satellite data processing, with several data catalogs at different resolutions (notably Landsat, Sentinel-2, and MODIS) and planetary-scale analysis capabilities. Sentinel-2 MSI is chosen to obtain regular processes related to burnt area severity mapping using a medium spatial resolution sensor (15m). This tool uses machine learning classification techniques to identify burnt areas using NBR and to classify their severity over the user-selected extent and period automatically. Cloud coverage is one of the biggest concerns when fire severity mapping is performed. In WWSAT based on GEE, we present a fully automatic workflow to aggregate cloud-free Sentinel-2 images for both pre-fire and post-fire image compositing. The parallel processing capabilities and preloaded geospatial datasets of GEE facilitated the production of this tool. This tool consists of a Graphical User Interface (GUI) to make it user-friendly. The advantage of this tool is the ability to obtain burn area severity over a large extent and more extended temporal periods. Two case studies were carried out to demonstrate the performance of this tool. The Blue Mountain national park forest affected by the Australian fire season between 2019 and 2020 is used to describe the workflow of the WWSAT. This site detected more than 7809 km2, using Sentinel-2 data, giving an error below 6.5% when compared with the area detected on the field. Furthermore, 86.77% of the detected area was recognized as fully burnt out, of which high severity (17.29%), moderate-high severity (19.63%), moderate-low severity (22.35%), and low severity (27.51%). The Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forest Park, California, the USA, which is affected by the Cameron peak fire in 2020, is chosen for the second case study. It was found that around 983 km2 had burned out, of which high severity (2.73%), moderate-high severity (1.57%), moderate-low severity (1.18%), and low severity (5.45%). These spots also can be detected through the visual inspection made possible by cloud-free images generated by WWSAT. This tool is cost-effective in calculating the burnt area since satellite images are free and the cost of field surveys is avoided.

Keywords: burnt area, burnt severity, fires, google earth engine (GEE), sentinel-2

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Authors: Tugba Altin

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In an era where the impacts of climate change resonate more pronouncedly than ever, communities globally grapple with events bearing both tangible and intangible ramifications. Situating this within the evolving landscapes of Psychological and Behavioral Sciences, this research probes the profound psychological and behavioral responses evoked by such events. The Lytton Creek Fire of 2021 epitomizes these challenges. While tangible destruction is immediate and evident, the intangible repercussions—emotional distress, disintegration of cultural landscapes, and disruptions in place attachment (PA)—require meticulous exploration. PA, emblematic of the emotional and cognitive affiliations individuals nurture with their environments, emerges as a cornerstone for comprehending how environmental cataclysms influence cultural identity and bonds to land. This study, harmonizing the core tenets of an interpretive phenomenological approach with a hermeneutic framework, underscores the pivotal nature of this attachment. It delves deep into the realm of individuals' experiences post the Lytton Creek Fire, unraveling the intricate dynamics of PA amidst such calamity. The study's methodology deviates from conventional paradigms. Instead of traditional interview techniques, it employs walking audio sessions and photo elicitation methods, granting participants the agency to immerse, re-experience, and vocalize their sentiments in real-time. Such techniques shed light on spatial narratives post-trauma and capture the otherwise elusive emotional nuances, offering a visually rich representation of place-based experiences. Central to this research is the voice of the affected populace, whose lived experiences and testimonies form the nucleus of the inquiry. As they renegotiate their bonds with transformed environments, their narratives reveal the indispensable role of cultural landscapes in forging place-based identities. Such revelations accentuate the necessity of integrating both tangible and intangible trauma facets into community recovery strategies, ensuring they resonate more profoundly with affected individuals. Bridging the domains of environmental psychology and behavioral sciences, this research accentuates the intertwined nature of tangible restoration with the imperative of emotional and cultural recuperation post-environmental disasters. It advocates for adaptation initiatives that are rooted in the lived realities of the affected, emphasizing a holistic approach that recognizes the profundity of human connections to landscapes. This research advocates the interdisciplinary exchange of ideas and strategies in addressing post-disaster community recovery strategies. It not only enriches the climate change discourse by emphasizing the human facets of disasters but also reiterates the significance of an interdisciplinary approach, encompassing psychological and behavioral nuances, for fostering a comprehensive understanding of climate-induced traumas. Such a perspective is indispensable for shaping more informed, empathetic, and effective adaptation strategies.

Keywords: place attachment, community recovery, disaster response, restorative landscapes, sensory response, visual methodologies

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Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Sang C. Park

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Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: performance forecasting, simulation, virtual manned assembly line, WEMax

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Authors: José Carlos Rodríguez, Mario Gómez, Medardo Serna

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This paper analyses managing higher education institutions in emerging economies. The paper investigates the case of postgraduate studies development at public universities. In so doing, it adopts the complex theory approach to evaluate how postgraduate studies have evolved in these countries. The investigation suggests that the postgraduate studies sector at public universities can be seen as a complex adaptive system (CAS). Therefore, the paper adopts system dynamics (SD) methods to develop this analysis. The case of postgraduate studies at Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo in Mexico is investigated in this paper.

Keywords: complex adaptive systems, higher education institutions, Mexico, system dynamics

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 360