Search results for: skew distributions

Authors: V. Batishchev, V. Getman

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We study the self-similar fluid flows in the Marangoni layers with the axial symmetry. Such flows are induced by the radial gradients of the temperatures whose distributions along the free boundary obey some power law. The self-similar solutions describe thermo-capillar flows both in the thin layers and in the case of infinite thickness. We consider both positive and negative temperature gradients. In the former case the cooling of free boundary nearby the axis of symmetry gives rise to the rotation of fluid. The rotating flow concentrates itself inside the Marangoni layer while outside of it the fluid does not revolve. In the latter case we observe no rotating flows at all. In the layers of infinite thickness the separation of the rotating flow creates two zones where the flows are directed oppositely. Both the longitudinal velocity and the temperature have exactly one critical point inside the boundary layer. It is worth to note that the profiles are monotonic in the case of non-swirling flows. We describe the flow outside the boundary layer with the use of self-similar solution of the Euler equations. This flow is slow and non-swirling. The introducing of an outer flow gives rise to the branching of swirling flows from the non-swirling ones. There is such the critical velocity of the outer flow that a non-swirling flow exists for supercritical velocities and cannot be extended to the sub-critical velocities. For the positive temperature gradients there are two non-swirling flows. For the negative temperature gradients the non-swirling flow is unique. We determine the critical velocity of the outer flow for which the branching of the swirling flows happens. In the case of a thin layer confined within free boundaries we show that the cooling of the free boundaries near the axis of symmetry leads to the separating of the layer and creates two sub-layers with opposite rotations inside. This makes sharp contrast with the case of infinite thickness. We show that such rotation arises provided the thickness of the layer exceed some critical value. In the case of a thin layer confined within free and rigid boundaries we construct the branching equation and the asymptotic approximation for the secondary swirling flows near the bifurcation point. It turns out that the bifurcation gives rise to one pair of the secondary swirling flows with different directions of swirl.

Keywords: free surface, rotation, fluid flow, bifurcation, boundary layer, Marangoni layer

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Authors: Tanu Khanuja, Harikrishnan N. Unni

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Head is the most vulnerable part of human body and may cause severe life threatening injuries. As the in vivo brain response cannot be recorded during injury, computational investigation of the head model could be really helpful to understand the injury mechanism. Majority of the physical damage to living tissues are caused by relative motion within the tissue due to tensile and shearing structural failures. The present Finite Element study focuses on investigating intracranial pressure and stress/strain distributions resulting from impact loads on various sites of human head. This is performed by the development of the 3D model of a human head with major segments like cerebrum, cerebellum, brain stem, CSF (cerebrospinal fluid), and skull from patient specific MRI (magnetic resonance imaging). The semi-automatic segmentation of head is performed using AMIRA software to extract finer grooves of the brain. To maintain the accuracy high number of mesh elements are required followed by high computational time. Therefore, the mesh optimization has also been performed using tetrahedral elements. In addition, model validation with experimental literature is performed as well. Hard tissues like skull is modeled as elastic whereas soft tissues like brain is modeled with viscoelastic prony series material model. This paper intends to obtain insights into the severity of brain injury by analyzing impacts on frontal, top, back, and temporal sites of the head. Yield stress (based on von Mises stress criterion for tissues) and intracranial pressure distribution due to impact on different sites (frontal, parietal, etc.) are compared and the extent of damage to cerebral tissues is discussed in detail. This paper finds that how the back impact is more injurious to overall head than the other. The present work would be helpful to understand the injury mechanism of traumatic brain injury more effectively.

Keywords: dynamic impact analysis, finite element analysis, intracranial pressure, MRI, traumatic brain injury, von Misses stress

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Authors: Mohamad Amin Amini, Mehdi Poursha

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Nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) is a robust analytical tool for estimating the seismic demands of structures responding in the inelastic range. However, because of its conceptual and numerical complications, the nonlinear static procedure (NSP) is being increasingly used as a suitable tool for seismic performance evaluation of structures. The conventional pushover analysis methods presented in various codes (FEMA 356; Eurocode-8; ATC-40), are limited to the first-mode-dominated structures, and cannot take higher modes effect into consideration. Therefore, since more than a decade ago, researchers developed enhanced pushover analysis procedures to take higher modes effect into account. The main objective of this study is to propose an enhanced invariant lateral displacement distribution to take higher modes effect into consideration in performing a displacement-based pushover analysis, whereby a set of laterally applied displacements, rather than forces, is monotonically applied to the structure. For this purpose, the effect of different parameters such as the spectral displacement of ground motion, the modal participation factor, and the effective modal participating mass ratio on the lateral displacement distribution is investigated to find the best distribution. The major simplification of this procedure is that the effect of higher modes is concentrated into a single invariant lateral load distribution. Therefore, only one pushover analysis is sufficient without any need to utilize a modal combination rule for combining the responses. The invariant lateral displacement distribution for pushover analysis is then calculated by combining the modal story displacements using the modal combination rules. The seismic demands resulting from the different procedures are compared to those from the more accurate nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) as a benchmark solution. Two structures of different heights including 10 and 20-story special steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) were selected and evaluated. Twenty ground motion records were used to conduct the NL-RHA. The results show that more accurate responses can be obtained in comparison with the conventional lateral loads when the enhanced modal lateral displacement distributions are used.

Keywords: displacement-based pushover, enhanced lateral load distribution, higher modes effect, nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA)

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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The relation between stock price volatility and trading volume represents a controversial issue which has received a remarkable attention over the past decades. In fact, an extensive literature shows a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume in the financial markets, but the causal relationship which originates such association is an open question, from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In this regard, various models, which can be considered as complementary rather than competitive, have been introduced to explain this relationship. They include the long debated Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH); the Sequential Arrival of Information Hypothesis (SAIH); the Dispersion of Beliefs Hypothesis (DBH); the Noise Trader Hypothesis (NTH). In this work, we analyze whether stock market efficiency can explain the diversity of results achieved during the years. For this purpose, we propose an alternative measure of market efficiency, based on the pointwise regularity of a stochastic process, which is the Hurst–H¨older dynamic exponent. In particular, we model the stock market by means of the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) that displays the property of a time-changing regularity. Mostly, such models have in common the fact that they locally behave as a fractional Brownian motion, in the sense that their local regularity at time t0 (measured by the local Hurst–H¨older exponent in a neighborhood of t0 equals the exponent of a fractional Brownian motion of parameter H(t0)). Assuming that the stock price follows an mBm, we introduce and theoretically justify the Hurst–H¨older dynamical exponent as a measure of market efficiency. This allows to measure, at any time t, markets’ departures from the martingale property, i.e. from efficiency as stated by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This approach is applied to financial markets; using data for the SP500 index from 1978 to 2017, on the one hand we find that when efficiency is not accounted for, a positive contemporaneous relationship emerges and is stable over time. Conversely, it disappears as soon as efficiency is taken into account. In particular, this association is more pronounced during time frames of high volatility and tends to disappear when market becomes fully efficient.

Keywords: volume–volatility relationship, efficient market hypothesis, martingale model, Hurst–Hölder exponent

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Authors: Mitchell J. Baum, Badin Gibbes, Greg Collecutt

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This study details a three-dimensional field-scale numerical investigation conducted for the Gold Coast Desalination Plant (GCDP) offshore multiport brine diffuser. Quantitative assessment of diffuser performance with regard to trajectory, dilution and mapping of seafloor concentration distributions was conducted for 100% plant operation. The quasi-steady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed using the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations with a k-ω shear stress transport turbulence closure scheme. The study compliments a field investigation, which measured brine plume characteristics under similar conditions. CFD models used an iterative mesh in a domain with dimensions 400 m long, 200 m wide and an average depth of 24.2 m. Acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements conducted in the companion field study exhibited considerable variability over the water column. The effect of this vertical variability on simulated discharge outcomes was examined. Seafloor slope was also accommodated into the model. Ambient currents varied predominantly in the longshore direction – perpendicular to the diffuser structure. Under these conditions, the alternating port orientation of the GCDP diffuser resulted in simultaneous subjection to co-propagating and counter-propagating ambient regimes. Results from quiescent ambient simulations suggest broad agreement with empirical scaling arguments traditionally employed in design and regulatory assessments. Simulated dynamic ambient regimes showed the influence of ambient crossflow upon jet trajectory, dilution and seafloor concentration is significant. The effect of ambient flow structure and the subsequent influence on jet dynamics is discussed, along with the implications for using these different simulation approaches to inform regulatory decisions.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, desalination, field-scale simulation, multiport brine diffuser, negatively buoyant jet

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Authors: Paul V. Thomas, Mostafa S. A. Elsayed, Denis Walch

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Airframe structural optimization at different design stages results in new mass and stiffness distributions which modify the critical design loads envelop. Determination of aircraft critical loads is an extensive analysis procedure which involves simulating the aircraft at thousands of load cases as defined in the certification requirements. It is computationally prohibitive to use a Global Finite Element Model (GFEM) for the load analysis, hence reduced order structural models are required which closely represent the dynamic characteristics of the GFEM. This paper presents the implementation of Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) method for the generation of high fidelity Reduced Order Model (ROM) of complex airframes. Here, sub-structuring technique is used to divide the complex higher order airframe dynamical system into a set of subsystems. Each subsystem is reduced to fewer degrees of freedom using matrix projection onto a carefully chosen reduced order basis subspace. The reduced structural matrices are assembled for all the subsystems through interface coupling and the dynamic response of the total system is solved. The CMS method is employed to develop the ROM of a Bombardier Aerospace business jet which is coupled with an aerodynamic model for dynamic aeroelasticity loads analysis under gust turbulence. Another set of dynamic aeroelastic loads is also generated employing a stick model of the same aircraft. Stick model is the reduced order modelling methodology commonly used in the aerospace industry based on stiffness generation by unitary loading application. The extracted aeroelastic loads from both models are compared against those generated employing the GFEM. Critical loads Modal participation factors and modal characteristics of the different ROMs are investigated and compared against those of the GFEM. Results obtained show that the ROM generated using Craig Bampton CMS reduction process has a superior dynamic characteristics compared to the stick model.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, craig bampton reduction method, dynamic aeroelasticity analysis, model order reduction

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Authors: Juan Francisco Reinoso Gordo, Francisco Javier Ariza-López, José Rodríguez Avi, Domingo Barrera Rosillo

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The evaluation of the quality of a data product is based on the comparison of the product with a reference of greater accuracy. In the case of MDE data products, quality assessment usually focuses on positional accuracy and few studies consider other terrain characteristics, such as slope and orientation. The proposal that is made consists of evaluating the similarity of two DEMs (a product and a reference), through the joint analysis of the distribution functions of the variables of interest, for example, elevations, slopes and orientations. This is a multivariable approach that focuses on distribution functions, not on single parameters such as mean values or dispersions (e.g. root mean squared error or variance). This is considered to be a more holistic approach. The use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed due to its non-parametric nature, since the distributions of the variables of interest cannot always be adequately modeled by parametric models (e.g. the Normal distribution model). In addition, its application to the multivariate case is carried out jointly by means of a single test on the convolution of the distribution functions of the variables considered, which avoids the use of corrections such as Bonferroni when several statistics hypothesis tests are carried out together. In this work, two DEM products have been considered, DEM02 with a resolution of 2x2 meters and DEM05 with a resolution of 5x5 meters, both generated by the National Geographic Institute of Spain. DEM02 is considered as the reference and DEM05 as the product to be evaluated. In addition, the slope and aspect derived models have been calculated by GIS operations on the two DEM datasets. Through sample simulation processes, the adequate behavior of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test has been verified when the null hypothesis is true, which allows calibrating the value of the statistic for the desired significance value (e.g. 5%). Once the process has been calibrated, the same process can be applied to compare the similarity of different DEM data sets (e.g. the DEM05 versus the DEM02). In summary, an innovative alternative for the comparison of DEM data sets based on a multinomial non-parametric perspective has been proposed by means of a single Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This new approach could be extended to other DEM features of interest (e.g. curvature, etc.) and to more than three variables

Keywords: data quality, DEM, kolmogorov-smirnov test, multivariate DEM comparison

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Authors: Emiru Birhane, Tesfay Gidey, Haftu Abrha, Abrha Brhan, Amanuel Zenebe, Girmay Gebresamuel, Florent Noulèkoun

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Dracaena ombet and Dobera glabra are two of the most rare and endangered tree species in dryland areas. Unfortunately, their sustainability is being compromised by different anthropogenic and natural factors. However, the impacts of ongoing land use and climate change on the population structure and distribution of the species are less explored. This study was carried out in the grazing lands and hillside areas of the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest, northern Ethiopia, to characterize the population structure of the species and predict the impact of climate change on their potential distributions. In each land-use type, abundance, diameter at breast height, and height of the trees were collected using 70 sampling plots distributed over seven transects spaced one km apart. The geographic coordinates of each individual tree were also recorded. The results showed that the species populations were characterized by low abundance and unstable population structure. The latter was evinced by a lack of seedlings and mature trees. The study also revealed that the total abundance and dendrometric traits of the trees were significantly different between the two land uses. The hillside areas had a denser abundance of bigger and taller trees than the grazing lands. Climate change predictions using the MaxEnt model highlighted that future temperature increases coupled with reduced precipitation would lead to significant reductions in the suitable habitats of the species in northern Ethiopia. The species' suitable habitats were predicted to decline by 48–83% for D. ombet and 35–87% for D. glabra. Hence, to sustain the species populations, different strategies should be adopted, namely the introduction of alternative livelihoods (e.g., gathering NTFP) to reduce the overexploitation of the species for subsistence income and the protection of the current habitats that will remain suitable in the future using community-based exclosures. Additionally, the preservation of the species' seeds in gene banks is crucial to ensure their long-term conservation.

Keywords: grazing lands, hillside areas, land-use change, MaxEnt, range limitation, rare and endangered tree species

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Authors: Iyad Al-Attar

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Air filters are widely used in gas turbines applications to ensure that the large mass (500kg/s) of clean air reach the compressor. The continuous demand of high availability and reliability has highlighted the critical role of air filter performance in providing enhanced air quality. In addition to being challenged with different environments [tropical, coastal, hot], gas turbines confront wide array of atmospheric contaminants with various concentrations and particle size distributions that would lead to performance degradation and components deterioration. Therefore, the role of air filters is of a paramount importance since fouled compressor can reduce power output and availability of the gas turbine to over 70 % throughout operation. Consequently, accurate filter performance prediction is critical tool in their selection considering their role in minimizing the economic impact of outages. In fact, actual performance of Efficient Particulate Air [EPA] filters used in gas turbine tend to deviate from the performance predicted by laboratory results. This experimental work investigates the initial pressure drop and fractional efficiency curves of full-scale pleated V-shaped EPA filters used globally in gas turbine. The investigation involved examining the effect of different operational conditions such as flow rates [500 to 5000 m3/h] and design parameters such as pleat count [28, 30, 32 and 34 pleats per 100mm]. This experimental work has highlighted the underlying reasons behind the reduction in filter permeability due to the increase of flow rates and pleat density. The reasons, which led to surface area losses of filtration media, are due to one or combination of the following effects: pleat-crowding, deflection of the entire pleated panel, pleat distortion at the corner of the pleat and/or filtration medium compression. This paper also demonstrates that the effect of increasing the flow rate has more pronounced effect on filter performance compared to pleating density. This experimental work suggests that a valid comparison of the pleat densities should be based on the effective surface area, namely, the area that participates in the filtration process, and not the total surface area the pleat density provides. Throughout this study, optimal pleat count that satisfies both initial pressure drop and efficiency requirements may not have necessarily existed.

Keywords: filter efficiency, EPA Filters, pressure drop, permeability

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Authors: Liliana Rusu

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The goal of the proposed work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind and wave climate in the Romanian nearshore, using the results provided by numerical models. The Romanian coastal environment is located in the western side of the Black Sea, the more energetic part of the sea, an area with heavy maritime traffic and various offshore operations. Information about the wind and wave climate in the Romanian waters is mainly based on observations at Gloria drilling platform (70 km from the coast). As regards the waves, the measurements of the wave characteristics are not so accurate due to the method used, being also available for a limited period. For this reason, the wave simulations that cover large temporal and spatial scales represent an option to describe better the wave climate. To assess the wind climate in the target area spanning 1992–2016, data provided by the NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and consisting in wind fields at 10m above the sea level are used. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the wind fields is good enough to represent the wind variability over the area. For the same 25-year period, as considered for the wind climate, this study characterizes the wave climate from a wave hindcast data set that uses NCEP-CFSR winds as input for a model system SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) based. The wave simulation results with a two-level modelling scale have been validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data. The second level of the system, with a higher resolution in the geographical space (0.02°×0.02°), is focused on the Romanian coastal environment. The main wave parameters simulated at this level are used to analyse the wave climate. The spatial distributions of the wind speed, wind direction and the mean significant wave height have been computed as the average of the total data. As resulted from the amount of data, the target area presents a generally moderate wave climate that is affected by the storm events developed in the Black Sea basin. Both wind and wave climate presents high seasonal variability. All the results are computed as maps that help to find the more dangerous areas. A local analysis has been also employed in some key locations corresponding to highly sensitive areas, as for example the main Romanian harbors.

Keywords: numerical simulations, Romanian nearshore, waves, wind

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Authors: Johanna Perdomo, Riki Lamont, Edmund Pickering, Naomi C. Paxton, Maria A. Woodruff

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Background: Tissue Engineering (TE) has combined advanced materials, such as biomaterials, to create affordable scaffolds and dynamic systems to generate stimulation of seeded cells on these scaffolds, improving and maintaining the cellular growth process in a cell culture. However, Few TE skin products have been clinically translated, and more research is required to produce highly biomimetic skin substitutes that mimic the native elasticity of skin in a controlled manner. Therefore, this work will be focused on the fabrication of a novel mechanical system to enhance the TE treatment approaches for the reparation of damaged tissue skin. Aims: To archive this, a soft robotic device will be created to emulate different deformation of skin stress. The design of this soft robot will allow the attachment of scaffolds, which will then be mechanically actuated. This will provide a novel and highly adaptable platform for dynamic cell culture. Methods: Novel, low-cost soft robot is fabricated via 3D printed moulds and silicone. A low cost, electro-mechanical device was constructed to actuate the soft robot through the controlled combination of positive and negative air pressure to control the different state of movements. Mechanical tests were conducted to assess the performance and calibration of each electronic component. Similarly, pressure-displacement test was performed on scaffolds, which were attached to the soft robot, applying various mechanical loading regimes. Lastly, digital image correlation test was performed to obtain strain distributions over the soft robot’s surface. Results: The control system can control and stabilise positive pressure changes for long hours. Similarly, pressure-displacement test demonstrated that scaffolds with 5µm of diameter and wavy geometry can displace at 100%, applying a maximum pressure of 1.5 PSI. Lastly, during the inflation state, the displacement of silicone was measured using DIC method, and this showed a parameter of 4.78 mm and strain of 0.0652. Discussion And Conclusion: The developed soft robot system provides a novel and low-cost platform for the dynamic actuation of tissue scaffolds with a target towards dynamic cell culture.

Keywords: soft robot, tissue engineering, mechanical stimulation, dynamic cell culture, bioreactor

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Authors: Kittitara Chunlakittiphan, Patompong Satapornpong

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Introduction: The variation of genetics affects how our body responds to pharmaceuticals elucidates the correlation between long-term use of medical cannabis and adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Medical cannabis is regarded as the treatment for chronic pain, cancer pain, acute pain, psychological disorders, multiple sclerosis and migraine management. However, previous studies have shown that delta-9-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), an ingredient found in cannabis, was the cause of ADRs in CB1 receptors found in humans. Previous research suggests that distributions of the cannabinoid type 1 (CB1) receptor gene and pharmacogenetic markers, which vary amongst different populations, might affect incidences of ADRs. Although there is an evident need to investigate the level of the CB1 receptor gene (rs806365), studies on the distribution of CB1-pharmacogenetics markers in Thai patients are limited. Objective: Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of the rs806365 polymorphism in Thai patients who have been treated with medical cannabis. Materials and Methods: We enrolled 31 Thai patients with THC-induced ADRs and 34 THC-tolerant controls to take part in this study. All patients with THC-induced ADRs were accessed through a review of medical records by physicians. EDTA blood of 3ml was collected to obtain the CNR1 gene (rs806365) and genotyping of this gene was conducted using the real-time PCR ViiA7 (ABI, Foster City, CA, USA) following the manufacturer’s instruction. Results: The sample consisted of 65 patients (40/61.54%) were females and (25/38.46%) were males, with an age range of 19-87 years, who have been treated with medical cannabis. In this study, the most common THC-induced ADRs were dry mouth and/or dry throat, tachycardia, nausea, and arrhythmia. Across the whole sample, we found that 52.31% of Thai patients carried a heterozygous variant (rs806365, CT allele). Moreover, the number of rs806365 (CC, homozygous variant) carriers totaled seventeen people (26.15%) amongst the subjects of Thai patients treated with medical cannabis. Furthermore, 17 out of 22 patients (77.27%) who experienced severe ADRs: Tachycardia and/or arrhythmia, carried an abnormal rs806365 gene (CT and CC alleles). Conclusions: The results propose that the rs806365 gene is widely distributed amongst the Thai population and there is a link between this gene and vulnerability to developing THC-induced ADRs after being treated with medical cannabis. Therefore, it is necessary to screen for the rs806365 gene before using medical cannabis to treat a patient.

Keywords: rs806365, THC-induced adverse drug reactions, CB1 receptor, Thai population

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Authors: Joel F. Campbell, Bing Lin, Michael Obland, Susan Kooi, Tai-Fang Fan, Byron Meadows, Edward Browell, Wayne Erxleben, Doug McGregor, Jeremy Dobler, Sandip Pal, Christopher O'Dell, Ken Davis

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The Active Sensing of CO₂ Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) CarbonHawk Experiment Simulator (ACES) is a NASA Langley Research Center instrument funded by NASA’s Science Mission Directorate that seeks to advance technologies critical to measuring atmospheric column carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) mixing ratios in support of the NASA ASCENDS mission. The ACES instrument, an Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar, was designed for high-altitude aircraft operations and can be directly applied to space instrumentation to meet the ASCENDS mission requirements. The ACES design demonstrates advanced technologies critical for developing an airborne simulator and spaceborne instrument with lower platform consumption of size, mass, and power, and with improved performance. The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) is an Earth Venture Suborbital -2 (EVS-2) mission sponsored by the Earth Science Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. A major objective is to enhance knowledge of the sources/sinks and transport of atmospheric CO₂ through the application of remote and in situ airborne measurements of CO₂ and other atmospheric properties on spatial and temporal scales. ACT-America consists of five campaigns to measure regional carbon and evaluate transport under various meteorological conditions in three regional areas of the Continental United States. Regional CO₂ distributions of the lower atmosphere were observed from the C-130 aircraft by the Harris Corp. Multi-Frequency Fiber Laser Lidar (MFLL) and the ACES lidar. The airborne lidars provide unique data that complement the more traditional in situ sensors. This presentation shows the applications of CO₂ lidars in support of these science needs.

Keywords: CO₂ measurement, IMCW, CW lidar, laser spectroscopy

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Authors: Zbigniew Izdebski, Alicja Kozakiewicz, Maciej Białorudzki, Joanna Mazur

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Work is an extremely important part of everyone's life and affects functioning in daily life. Healthcare workers (HCW) are suffering from negative actions in and out of the workplace, such as harassment, abuse, long working hours, mental suffering, exhaustion, and professional burnout. Staff burnout is detrimental not only in terms of individual employees but also to working with patients and to the healthcare institution as a whole. The purpose of this study was to explore the level of professional burnout among HCW working in medical institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. The extent to which selected sociodemographic factors and perceived stress increase the risk of professional burnout was assessed. In addition, the frequency of use of professional psychological help and less formal support groups by HCW in relation to the level of professional burnout was presented. The survey was conducted as part of a larger project on the humanization of medicine and clinical communication from February-April 2022. This study used a self-administered online survey (CAWI) technique and PAPI (pen and paper interview) technique. The BAT-12 scale was used to measure burnout, the PSS-4 scale was used to measure stress, and questions formulated by the research team were also used. For the purpose of analysis, the sample was limited to 2196 HCWs who worked on a daily basis with patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Frequency distributions were analyzed, and multivariate logistic regression was performed. The mean scores (scores) of job burnout as measured by the BAT-12 scale ranged among the professional groups from 2.15(0.69) to 2.30 (0.69) and remained highest for the nurses' group. The groups differed significantly in levels of burnout (chi-sq=17.719; d.f.=8; p<0.023). In the final model, raised stress most likely increased the risk of burnout (OR=3.88; 95%CI <3.13-3.81>; p<0,001). Other significant predictors of burnout included: traumatic work-related experience (OR=1.91, p<0.001), mobbing (OR=1.83, p<0.001), and a higher workload than before the pandemic (OR=1.41, p=0.002). Only 7% of respondents decided to use various forms of psychological support during the pandemic. HCW experiences challenges in dealing with an unpredictable pandemic. Limited preparedness can lead to physical and psychological problems such as high-stress levels, anxiety, fear, helplessness, hopelessness, anger and stigma. The workload can lead to professional burnout, as well as threaten patient safety.

Keywords: burnout, work, healthcare, healthcare worker, stress

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Authors: Recep Kesli, Cengiz Demir, Riza Durmaz, Zekiye Bakkaloglu, Aysegul Bukulmez

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Objective: Acute diarrhea disease in children is a major cause of morbidity worldwide and is a leading cause of mortality, and it is the most common agent responsible for acute gastroenteritis in developing countries. With hospitalized children suffering from acute enteric disease up to 50% of the analyzed specimen were positive for rotavirus. Further molecular surveillance could provide a sound basis for improving the response to epidemic gastroenteritis and could provide data needed for the introduction of vaccination programmes in the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of viral etiology of the gastroenteritis in children aged 0-6 years with acute gastroenteritis and to determine predominant genotypes of rotaviruses in the province of Afyonkarahisar, Turkey. Methods: An epidemiological study on rotavirus was carried out during 2016. Fecal samples obtained from the 144 rotavirus positive children with 0-6 years of ages and applied to the Pediatric Diseases Outpatient of ANS Research and Practice Hospital, Afyon Kocatepe University with the complaint of diarrhea. Bacterial agents causing gastroenteritis were excluded by using bacteriological culture methods and finally, no growth observed. Rotavirus antigen was examined by both the immunochromatographic (One Step Rotavirus and Adenovirus Combo Test, China) and ELISA (Premier Rotaclone, USA) methods in stool samples. Rotavirus RNA was detected by using one step real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). G and P genotypes were determined using RT-PCR with consensus primers of VP7 and VP4 genes, followed by semi nested type-specific multiplex PCR. Results: Of the total 144 rotavirus antigen-positive samples with RT-PCR, 4 (2,8%) were rejected, 95 (66%) were examined, and 45 (31,2%) have not been examined for PCR yet. Ninety-one (95,8%) of the 95 examined samples were found to be rotavirus positive with RT-PCR. Rotavirus subgenotyping distributions in G, P and G/P genotype groups were determined as; G1:45%, G2:27%, G3:13%, G9:13%, G4:1% and G12:1% for G genotype, and P[4]:33%, P[8]:66%, P[10]:1% for P genotype, and G1P[8]:%37, G2P[4]:%21, G3P[8]:%10, G4P[8]:%1, G9P[8]:%8, G2P[8]:%3 for G/P genotype . Not common genotype combination were %20 in G/P genotype. Conclusions: This study subscribes to the global agreement of the molecular epidemiology of rotavirus which will be useful in guiding the alternative and application of rotavirus vaccines or effective control and interception. Determining the diversity and rates of rotavirus genotypes will definitely provide guidelines for developing the most suitable vaccine.

Keywords: gastroenteritis, genotyping, rotavirus, RT-PCR

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Authors: S. V. Akulinichev, S. A. Chaushansky, V. I. Derzhiev

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High dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy is a method of contact radiotherapy, when a single sealed source with an activity of about 10 Ci is temporarily inserted in the tumor area. The isotopes Ir-192 and (much less) Co-60 are used as active material for such sources. The other type of brachytherapy, the low dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy, implies the insertion of many permanent sources (up to 200) of lower activity. The pulse dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy can be considered as a modification of HDR brachytherapy, when the single source is repeatedly introduced in the tumor region in a pulse regime during several hours. The PDR source activity is of the order of one Ci and the isotope Ir-192 is currently used for these sources. The PDR brachytherapy is well recommended for the treatment of several tumors since, according to oncologists, it combines the medical benefits of both HDR and LDR types of brachytherapy. One of the main problems for the PDR brachytherapy progress is the shielding of the treatment area since the longer stay of patients in a shielded canyon is not enough comfortable for them. The use of Yb-169 as an active source material is the way to resolve the shielding problem for PDR, as well as for HRD brachytherapy. The isotope Yb-169 has the average photon emission energy of 93 KeV and the half-life of 32 days. Compared to iridium and cobalt, this isotope has a significantly lower emission energy and therefore requires a much lighter shielding. Moreover, the absorption cross section of different materials has a strong Z-dependence in that photon energy range. For example, the dose distributions of iridium and ytterbium have a quite similar behavior in the water or in the body. But the heavier material as lead absorbs the ytterbium radiation much stronger than the iridium or cobalt radiation. For example, only 2 mm of lead layer is enough to reduce the ytterbium radiation by a couple of orders of magnitude but is not enough to protect from iridium radiation. We have created an original facility to produce the start stable isotope Yb-168 using the laser technology AVLIS. This facility allows to raise the Yb-168 concentration up to 50 % and consumes much less of electrical power than the alternative electromagnetic enrichment facilities. We also developed, in cooperation with the Institute of high pressure physics of RAS, a new technology for manufacturing high-density ceramic cores of ytterbium oxide. Ceramics density reaches the limit of the theoretical values: 9.1 g/cm3 for the cubic phase of ytterbium oxide and 10 g/cm3 for the monoclinic phase. Source cores from this ceramics have high mechanical characteristics and a glassy surface. The use of ceramics allows to increase the source activity with fixed external dimensions of sources.

Keywords: brachytherapy, high, pulse dose rates, radionuclides for therapy, ytterbium sources

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Authors: Yin-Hsuan Wu, Perng-Jy Tsai, Ying-Fang Wang, Shun-Hui Chung

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The present study was conducted to characterize exposure concentrations, concentrations deposited on the different respiratory regions, and resultant health risks associated with heavy metal exposures for road marking workers. Road marking workers of three similar exposure groups (SEGs) were selected, including the paint pouring worker, marking worker, and preparing worker. Personal exposure samples were collected using an inhalable dust sampler (IOM), and the involved particle size distribution samples were estimated using an eight-stage Marple personal cascade impactor during five working days. In total, 25 IOM samples and 20 Marple samples were collected. All collected samples were analyzed for their heavy metal contents using the ICP/MS. The resultant heavy metal particle size distributions were also used to estimate the fractions of particle deposited on the head airways (Chead), tracheobronchial (Cthorac) and alveolar regions (Cresp) of the exposed workers. In addition, Pb and Cr were selected to estimate the incremental cancer risk, and Zn, Ti, and Mo were selected to estimate the corresponding non-cancer risk in the present study. Results show that three heavy metals, including Pb, Cr, and Ti, were found with the highest concentrations for the SEG of the paint pouring worker (=0.585±2.98, 0.307±1.71, 0.902±2.99 μg/m³, respectively). For the fraction of heavy metal particle deposited on the respiratory tract, both alveolar and head regions were found with the highest values (=23-43% and 39-61%, respectively). For both SEGs of the paint pouring and marking, 51% of Cr, 59-61% of Zn, and 48-51% of Ti were found to be deposited on the alveolar region, and 41-43% of Pb was deposited on the head region. Finally, the incremental cancer risk for the SEGs of the paint pouring, marking, and preparing were found as 1.08×10⁻⁵, 2.78×10⁻⁶, and 2.20×10⁻⁶, respectively. In addition, the estimated non-cancer risk for the above three SEGs was found to be consistently less than unity. In conclusion, though the estimated non-cancer risk was less than unity, all resultant incremental cancer risk was greater than 10⁻⁶ indicating the abatement of workers’ exposure is necessary. It is suggested that strategies, including placing on the molten kettle, substitution the currently used paints for less heavy metal containing paints, and wearing fume protecting personal protective equipment can be considered in the future from reducing the worker’s exposure aspect.

Keywords: health risk assessment, heavy metal, respiratory track deposition, road marking

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Authors: Gizem Kodak, Alper Unal, Birsen Koldemir, Tayfun Acarer

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Turkish Straits System which consists of Istanbul Strait (Bosphorus), Canakkale Strait (Dardanelles) and the Marmara Sea has a strategical location on international maritime as it is a unique waterway between the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. Thus, this area has great importance since it is the only waterway between Black Sea countries and the rest of the World. Turkish Straits System has dangerous environmental factors hosts more vessel every day through developing World trade and this situation results in expanding accident risks day by day. Today, a lot of precautions have been taken to ensure safe navigation and to prevent maritime accidents, and international standards are followed to avoid maritime accidents. Despite this, the environmental factors that affect this area, trigger the maritime accidents and threaten the vessels with new accidents risks in different months with different hazards. This descriptive study consists of temporal and spatial analyses of environmental factors causing maritime accidents. This study also aims at contributing to safety navigation including monthly and regionally characteristics of variables. In this context, two different data sets are created consisting of environmental factors and accidents. This descriptive study on the accidents between 2001 and 2017 the mentioned region also studies the months and places of the accidents with environmental factor variables. Environmental factor variables are categorized as dynamic and static factors. Dynamic factors are appointed as meteorological and oceanographical while static factors are appointed as geological factors that threaten safety navigation with geometrical restricts. The variables that form dynamic factors are approached meteorological as wind direction, wind speed, wave altitude and visibility. The circulations and properties of the water mass on the system are studied as oceanographical properties. At the end of the study, the efficient meteorological and oceanographical parameters on the region are presented monthly and regionally. By this way, we acquired the monthly, seasonal and regional distributions of the accidents. Upon the analyses that are done; The Turkish Straits System that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries and which is one of the most important parts of the world trade; is analyzed on temporal and spatial dimensions on the reasons of the accidents and have been presented as environmental factor dynamics causing maritime accidents.

Keywords: descriptive study, environmental factors, maritime accidents, statistics

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Authors: Glaoui Hachemi

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Wind has been proven as a cost effective and reliable energy source. Technological advancements over the last years have placed wind energy in a firm position to compete with conventional power generation technologies. Algeria has a vast uninhabited land area where the south (desert) represents the greatest part with considerable wind regime. In this paper, an analysis of wind energy utilization as a viable energy substitute in six selected sites widely distributed all over the south of Algeria is presented. In this presentation, wind speed frequency distributions data obtained from the Algerian Meteorological Office are used to calculate the average wind speed and the available wind power. The annual energy produced by the Fuhrlander FL 30 wind machine is obtained using two methods. The analysis shows that in the southern Algeria, at 10 m height, the available wind power was found to vary between 160 and 280 W/m2, except for Tamanrasset. The highest potential wind power was found at Adrar, with 88 % of the time the wind speed is above 3 m/s. Besides, it is found that the annual wind energy generated by that machine lie between 33 and 61 MWh, except for Tamanrasset, with only 17 MWh. Since the wind turbines are usually installed at a height greater than 10 m, an increased output of wind energy can be expected. However, the wind resource appears to be suitable for power production on the south and it could provide a viable substitute to diesel oil for irrigation pumps and electricity generation. In this paper, a model of the wind turbine (WT) with permanent magnet generator (PMSG) and its associated controllers is presented. The increase of wind power penetration in power systems has meant that conventional power plants are gradually being replaced by wind farms. In fact, today wind farms are required to actively participate in power system operation in the same way as conventional power plants. In fact, power system operators have revised the grid connection requirements for wind turbines and wind farms, and now demand that these installations be able to carry out more or less the same control tasks as conventional power plants. For dynamic power system simulations, the PMSG wind turbine model includes an aerodynamic rotor model, a lumped mass representation of the drive train system and generator model. In this paper, we propose a model with an implementation in MATLAB / Simulink, each of the system components off-grid small wind turbines.

Keywords: windgenerator systems, permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG), wind turbine (WT) modeling, MATLAB simulink environment

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Authors: Byeongcheol Kang, Junyi Kim, Hyungsik Jung, Hyungjun Yang, Jaewoo An, Jonggeun Choe

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It is important to figure out reservoir properties for better production management. Due to the limited information, there are geological uncertainties on very heterogeneous or channel reservoir. One of the solutions is to generate multiple equi-probable realizations using geostatistical methods. However, some models have wrong properties, which need to be excluded for simulation efficiency and reliability. We propose a novel method of model selection scheme, based on distance-based clustering for reliable application of production optimization algorithm. Distance is defined as a degree of dissimilarity between the data. We calculate Hausdorff distance to classify the models based on their similarity. Hausdorff distance is useful for shape matching of the reservoir models. We use multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) to describe the models on two dimensional space and group them by K-means clustering. Rather than simulating all models, we choose one representative model from each cluster and find out the best model, which has the similar production rates with the true values. From the process, we can select good reservoir models near the best model with high confidence. We make 100 channel reservoir models using single normal equation simulation (SNESIM). Since oil and gas prefer to flow through the sand facies, it is critical to characterize pattern and connectivity of the channels in the reservoir. After calculating Hausdorff distances and projecting the models by MDS, we can see that the models assemble depending on their channel patterns. These channel distributions affect operation controls of each production well so that the model selection scheme improves management optimization process. We use one of useful global search algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), for our production optimization. PSO is good to find global optimum of objective function, but it takes too much time due to its usage of many particles and iterations. In addition, if we use multiple reservoir models, the simulation time for PSO will be soared. By using the proposed method, we can select good and reliable models that already matches production data. Considering geological uncertainty of the reservoir, we can get well-optimized production controls for maximum net present value. The proposed method shows one of novel solutions to select good cases among the various probabilities. The model selection schemes can be applied to not only production optimization but also history matching or other ensemble-based methods for efficient simulations.

Keywords: distance-based clustering, geological uncertainty, particle swarm optimization (PSO), production optimization

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Authors: Faraj M. Elkhatri, Hana Ali Allafi

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The spatial and temporal distribution of diagenetic alterations related impact on the reservoir quality of the Sarir Formation. (present day burial depth of about 9000 feet) Depositional facies and diagenetic alterations are the main controls on reservoir quality of Sarir Formation Sirt Ba-sin Libya; these based on lithology and grain size as well as authigenic clay mineral types and their distributions. However, petrology investigation obtained on study area with five sandstone wells concentrated on main rock components and the parameters that may have impacts on reservoirs. the main authigenic clay minerals are kaolinite and dickite, these investigations have confirmed by X.R.D analysis and clay fraction. mainly Kaolinite and Dickite were extensively presented on all of wells with high amounts. As well as trace of detrital smectite and less amounts of illitized mud-matrix are possibly find by SEM image. Thin layers of clay presented as clay-grain coatings in local depth interpreted as remains of dissolved clay matrix is partly transformed into kaolinite adjacent and towards pore throat. This also may have impacts on most of the pore throats of this sandstone which are open and relatively clean with some of fine martial have been formed on occluded pores. This material is identified by EDS analysis to be collections of not only kaolinite booklets, but also small, disaggregated kaolinite platelets derived from the dis-aggregation of larger kaolinite booklets. These patches of kaolinite not only fill this pore, but also coat some of the sur-rounding framework grains. Quartz grains often enlarged by authigenic quartz overgrowths partially occlude and re-duce porosity. Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM) was conducted on the post-test samples to examine any mud filtrate particles that may be in the pore throats. Semi-qualitative elemental data on select-ed minerals observed during the SEM study were obtained using an Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) unit. The samples showed mostly clean open pore throats, with limited occlusion by kaolinite.

Keywords: por throat, formation damage, porosity lose, solids plugging

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Authors: Attila Kiss, Erzsébet Némedi, Zoltán Naár

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As natural prebiotic (non-digestible) carbohydrates stimulate the growth of colon microflora and contribute to maintain the health of the host, analytical studies aiming at revealing the chemical behavior of these beneficial food components came to the forefront of interest. Food processing (especially baking) may lead to a significant conversion of the parent compounds, hence it is of utmost importance to characterize the transformation patterns and the plausible decomposition products formed by thermal degradation. The relevance of this work is confirmed by the wide-spread use of these carbohydrates (fructo-oligosaccharides, cyclodextrins, raffinose and resistant starch) in the food industry. More and more functional foodstuffs are being developed based on prebiotics as bioactive components. 12 different types of oligosaccharides have been investigated in order to reveal their thermal degradation characteristics. Different carbohydrate derivatives (D-fructose and D-glucose oligomers and polymers) have been exposed to elevated temperatures (150 °C 170 °C, 190 °C, 210 °C, and 220 °C) for 10 min. An advanced HPLC method was developed and used to identify the decomposition products of carbohydrates formed as a consequence of thermal treatment. Gradient elution was applied with binary solvent elution (acetonitrile, water) through amine based carbohydrate column. Evaporative light scattering (ELS) proved to be suitable for the reliable detection of the UV/VIS inactive carbohydrate degradation products. These experimental conditions and applied advanced techniques made it possible to survey all the formed intermediers. Change in oligomer distribution was established in cases of all studied prebiotics throughout the thermal treatments. The obtained results indicate increased extent of chain degradation of the carbohydrate moiety at elevated temperatures. Prevalence of oligomers with shorter chain length and even the formation of monomer sugars (D-glucose and D-fructose) might be observed at higher temperatures. Unique oligomer distributions, which have not been described previously are revealed in the case of each studied, specific carbohydrate, which might result in various prebiotic activities. Resistant starches exhibited high stability when being thermal treated. The degradation process has been modeled by a plausible reaction mechanism, in which proton catalyzed degradation and chain cleavage take place.

Keywords: prebiotics, thermal degradation, fructo-oligosaccharide, HPLC, ELS detection

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Mariya V. Yanyukina, Michael A. Bolotov

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Assembling accuracy is the degree of accordance between the actual values of the parameters obtained during assembly, and the values specified in the assembly drawings and technical specifications. However, the assembling accuracy depends not only on the quality of the production process but also on the correctness of the assembly process. Therefore, preliminary calculations of assembly stages are carried out to verify the correspondence of real geometric parameters to their acceptable values. In the aviation industry, most calculations involve interacting dimensional chains. This greatly complicates the task. Solving such problems requires a special approach. The purpose of this article is to carry out the problem of improving the technology of assembly of aviation units by use of computer calculations. One of the actual examples of the assembly unit, in which there is an interacting dimensional chain, is the turbine wheel of gas turbine engine. Dimensional chain of turbine wheel is formed by geometric parameters of disk and set of blades. The interaction of the dimensional chain consists in the formation of two chains. The first chain is formed by the dimensions that determine the location of the grooves for the installation of the blades, and the dimensions of the blade roots. The second dimensional chain is formed by the dimensions of the airfoil shroud platform. The interaction of the dimensional chain of the turbine wheel is the interdependence of the first and second chains by means of power circuits formed by a plurality of middle parts of the turbine blades. The timeliness of the calculation of the dimensional chain of the turbine wheel is the need to improve the technology of assembly of this unit. The task at hand contains geometric and mathematical components; therefore, its solution can be implemented following the algorithm: 1) research and analysis of production errors by geometric parameters; 2) development of a parametric model in the CAD system; 3) creation of set of CAD-models of details taking into account actual or generalized distributions of errors of geometrical parameters; 4) calculation model in the CAE-system, loading of various combinations of models of parts; 5) the accumulation of statistics and analysis. The main task is to pre-simulate the assembly process by calculating the interacting dimensional chains. The article describes the approach to the solution from the point of view of mathematical statistics, implemented in the software package Matlab. Within the framework of the study, there are data on the measurement of the components of the turbine wheel-blades and disks, as a result of which it is expected that the assembly process of the unit will be optimized by solving dimensional chains.

Keywords: accuracy, assembly, interacting dimension chains, turbine

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Authors: Giorgia Zotti

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This research comprehensively investigates the multifaceted interplay determining school performance, individual backgrounds, and regional disparities within the landscape of Italian secondary education. Leveraging data gleaned from the INVALSI 2021-2022 database, the analysis meticulously scrutinizes two fundamental distributions of educational achievements: the standardized Invalsi test scores and official grades in Italian and Mathematics, focusing specifically on final-year secondary school students in Italy. Applying a comprehensive methodology, the study initially employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess school performances. This methodology involves constructing a production function encompassing inputs (hours spent at school) and outputs (Invalsi scores in Italian and Mathematics, along with official grades in Italian and Math). The DEA approach is applied in both of its versions: traditional and conditional. The latter incorporates environmental variables such as school type, size, demographics, technological resources, and socio-economic indicators. Additionally, the analysis delves into regional disparities by leveraging the Theil Index, providing insights into disparities within and between regions. Moreover, in the frame of the inequality of opportunity theory, the study quantifies the inequality of opportunity in students' educational achievements. The methodology applied is the Parametric Approach in the ex-ante version, considering diverse circumstances like parental education and occupation, gender, school region, birthplace, and language spoken at home. Consequently, a Shapley decomposition is applied to understand how much each circumstance affects the outcomes. The outcomes of this comprehensive investigation unveil pivotal determinants of school performance, notably highlighting the influence of school type (Liceo) and socioeconomic status. The research unveils regional disparities, elucidating instances where specific schools outperform others in official grades compared to Invalsi scores, shedding light on the intricate nature of regional educational inequalities. Furthermore, it emphasizes a heightened inequality of opportunity within the distribution of Invalsi test scores in contrast to official grades, underscoring pronounced disparities at the student level. This analysis provides insights for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders, fostering a nuanced understanding of the complexities within Italian secondary education.

Keywords: inequality, education, efficiency, DEA approach

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Authors: K. Thiel, P. Patrikainen, C. Nagy, D. Fitzpatrick, E.-M. Aro, P. Kallio

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Photosynthetic cyanobacteria have been recognized as potential future biotechnological hosts for the direct conversion of CO₂ into chemicals of interest using sunlight as the solar energy source. However, in order to develop commercially viable systems, the flux of electrons from the photosynthetic light reactions towards specified target chemicals must be significantly improved. The objective of the study was to investigate whether the autotrophic production efficiency of specified end-metabolites can be improved in engineered cyanobacterial cells by rescuing excited electrons that are normally lost to molecular oxygen due to the cyanobacterial flavodiiron protein Flv1/3. Natively Flv1/3 dissipates excess electrons in the photosynthetic electron transfer chain by directing them to molecular oxygen in Mehler-like reaction to protect photosystem I. To evaluate the effect of flavodiiron inactivation on autotrophic production efficiency in the cyanobacterial host Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (Synechocystis), sucrose was selected as the quantitative reporter and a representative of a potential end-product of interest. The concept is based on the native property of Synechocystis to produce sucrose as an intracellular osmoprotectant when exposed to high external ion concentrations, in combination with the introduction of a heterologous sucrose permease (CscB from Escherichia coli), which transports the sucrose out from the cell. In addition, cell growth, photosynthetic gas fluxes using membrane inlet mass spectrometry and endogenous storage compounds were analysed to illustrate the consequent effects of flv deletion on pathway flux distributions. The results indicate that a significant proportion of the electrons can be lost to molecular oxygen via Flv1/3 even when the cells are grown under high CO₂ and that the inactivation of flavodiiron activity can enhance the photosynthetic electron flux towards optionally available sinks. The flux distribution is dependent on the light conditions and the genetic context of the Δflv mutants, and favors the production of either sucrose or one of the two storage compounds, glycogen or polyhydroxybutyrate. As a conclusion, elimination of the native Flv1/3 reaction and concomitant introduction of an engineered product pathway as an alternative sink for excited electrons could enhance the photosynthetic electron flux towards the target endproduct without compromising the fitness of the host.

Keywords: cyanobacterial engineering, flavodiiron proteins, redirecting electron flux, sucrose

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Authors: Gautier Viaud, Paul-Henry Cournède

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Plant growth models have been used extensively for the prediction of the phenotypic performance of plants. However, they remain most often calibrated for a given genotype and therefore do not take into account genotype by environment interactions. One way of achieving such an objective is to consider Bayesian hierarchical models. Three levels can be identified in such models: The first level describes how a given growth model describes the phenotype of the plant as a function of individual parameters, the second level describes how these individual parameters are distributed within a plant population, the third level corresponds to the attribution of priors on population parameters. Thanks to the Bayesian framework, choosing appropriate priors for the population parameters permits to derive analytical expressions for the full conditional distributions of these population parameters. As plant growth models are of a nonlinear nature, individual parameters cannot be sampled explicitly, and a Metropolis step must be performed. This allows for the use of a hybrid Gibbs--Metropolis sampler. A generic approach was devised for the implementation of both general state space models and estimation algorithms within a programming platform. It was designed using the Julia language, which combines an elegant syntax, metaprogramming capabilities and exhibits high efficiency. Results were obtained for Arabidopsis thaliana on both simulated and real data. An organ-scale Greenlab model for the latter is thus presented, where the surface areas of each individual leaf can be simulated. It is assumed that the error made on the measurement of leaf areas is proportional to the leaf area itself; multiplicative normal noises for the observations are therefore used. Real data were obtained via image analysis of zenithal images of Arabidopsis thaliana over a period of 21 days using a two-step segmentation and tracking algorithm which notably takes advantage of the Arabidopsis thaliana phyllotaxy. Since the model formulation is rather flexible, there is no need that the data for a single individual be available at all times, nor that the times at which data is available be the same for all the different individuals. This allows to discard data from image analysis when it is not considered reliable enough, thereby providing low-biased data in large quantity for leaf areas. The proposed model precisely reproduces the dynamics of Arabidopsis thaliana’s growth while accounting for the variability between genotypes. In addition to the estimation of the population parameters, the level of variability is an interesting indicator of the genotypic stability of model parameters. A promising perspective is to test whether some of the latter should be considered as fixed effects.

Keywords: bayesian, genotypic differentiation, hierarchical models, plant growth models

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Authors: Iddy Iddy, Qin Jiang, Changkuan Zhang

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This paper addresses the hydraulic performance of curtain wall breakwaters as a coastal structure protection based on the particles method modelling. The hydraulic functions of curtain wall as wave barriers by reflecting large parts of incident waves through the vertical wall, a part transmitted and a particular part was dissipating the wave energies through the eddy flows formed beneath the lower end of the plate. As a Lagrangian particle, the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method which has a robust capability for numerical representation has proven useful for design of structures application that concern free-surface hydrodynamic flow, such as wave breaking and overtopping. In this study, a vertical two-dimensional numerical model for the simulation of violent flow associated with the interaction between the curtain-wall breakwaters and progressive water waves is developed by MPS method in which a higher precision pressure gradient model and free surface particle recognition model were proposed. The wave transmission, reflection, and energy dissipation of the vertical wall were experimentally and theoretically examined. With the numerical wave flume by particle method, very detailed velocity and pressure fields around the curtain-walls under the action of waves can be computed in each calculation steps, and the effect of different wave and structural parameters on the hydrodynamic characteristics was investigated. Also, the simulated results of temporal profiles and distributions of velocity and pressure in the vicinity of curtain-wall breakwaters are compared with the experimental data. Herein, the numerical investigation of hydraulic performance of curtain wall breakwaters indicated that the incident wave is largely reflected from the structure, while the large eddies or turbulent flows occur beneath the curtain-wall resulting in big energy losses. The improved MPS method shows a good agreement between numerical results and analytical/experimental data which are compared to related researches. It is thus verified that the improved pressure gradient model and free surface particle recognition methods are useful for enhancement of stability and accuracy of MPS model for water waves and marine structures. Therefore, it is possible for particle method (MPS method) to achieve an appropriate level of correctness to be applied in engineering fields through further study.

Keywords: curtain wall breakwaters, free surface flow, hydraulic performance, improved MPS method

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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