Search results for: regression models

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: bancassurance, business model, non life bancassurance, insurance business value drivers

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Authors: James Ladzekpo

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Background: The urgent need to identify new pharmacological targets for diabetes treatment and prevention has been amplified by the disease's extensive impact on individuals and healthcare systems. A deeper insight into the biological underpinnings of diabetes is crucial for the creation of therapeutic strategies aimed at these biological processes. Current predictive models based on genetic variations fall short of accurately forecasting diabetes. Objectives: Our study aims to pinpoint key epigenetic factors that predispose individuals to diabetes. These factors will inform the development of an advanced predictive model that estimates diabetes risk from genetic profiles, utilizing state-of-the-art statistical and data mining methods. Methodology: We have implemented a recursive feature elimination with cross-validation using the support vector machine (SVM) approach for refined feature selection. Building on this, we developed six machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, to evaluate their performance. Findings: The Gradient Boosting Classifier excelled, achieving a median recall of 92.17% and outstanding metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a median of 68%, alongside median accuracy and precision scores of 76%. Through our machine learning analysis, we identified 31 genes significantly associated with diabetes traits, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and targets for diabetes management strategies. Conclusion: Particularly noteworthy were the Gradient Boosting Classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, which demonstrated potential in diabetes outcome prediction. We recommend future investigations to incorporate larger cohorts and a wider array of predictive variables to enhance the models' predictive capabilities.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, prediction, biomarkers

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Authors: Gang Wang

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Education is widely believed to be a prerequisite for democracy and civil society, but the causal link between education and outcome variables is usually hardly to be identified. This study applies a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to examine the effects of college education on democratic attitudes in the Chinese context. In the analysis treatment assignment is determined by students’ college entry years and thus naturally selected by subjects’ ages. Using a sample of Chinese college students collected in Beijing in 2009, this study finds that college education actually reduces undergraduates’ motivation for political development in China but promotes political loyalty to the authoritarian government. Further hypotheses tests explain these interesting findings from two perspectives. The first is related to the complexity of politics. As college students progress over time, they increasingly realize the complexity of political reform in China’s authoritarian regime and rather stay away from politics. The second is related to students’ career opportunities. As students are close to graduation, they are immersed with job hunting and have a reduced interest in political freedom.

Keywords: china, college education, democratic attitudes, regression discontinuity

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Authors: Arpine Maghakyan

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The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the level of industry digitalization and audit fees, especially, the relationship between Big 4 auditor fees and industry digitalization level. On the one hand, automation of business processes decreases internal control weakness and manual mistakes; increases work effectiveness and integrations. On the other hand, it may cause serious misstatements, high business risks or even bankruptcy, typically in early stages of automation. Incomplete automation can bring high audit risk especially if the auditor does not fully understand client’s business automation model. Higher audit risk consequently will cause higher audit fees. Higher audit fees for clients with high automation level are more highlighted in Big 4 auditor’s behavior. Using data of US firms from 2005-2015, we found that industry level digitalization is an interaction for the auditor quality on audit fees. Moreover, the choice of Big4 or non-Big4 is correlated with client’s industry digitalization level. Big4 client, which has higher digitalization level, pays more than one with low digitalization level. In addition, a high-digitalized firm that has Big 4 auditor pays higher audit fee than non-Big 4 client. We use audit fees and firm-specific variables from Audit Analytics and Compustat databases. We analyze collected data by using fixed effects regression methods and Wald tests for sensitivity check. We use fixed effects regression models for firms for determination of the connections between technology use in business and audit fees. We control for firm size, complexity, inherent risk, profitability and auditor quality. We chose fixed effects model as it makes possible to control for variables that have not or cannot be measured.

Keywords: audit fees, auditor quality, digitalization, Big4

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Authors: Richard Roberts, Anna Kravtcova

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Introduction: The realisation that personality can change over the course of a lifetime has led to a new companion model to the Big Five, the behavioural, emotional, and social skills approach (BESSA). BESSA hypothesizes that this set of skills represents how the individual is thinking, feeling, and behaving when the situation calls for it, as opposed to traits, which represent how someone tends to think, feel, and behave averaged across situations. The five major skill domains share parallels with the Big Five Factor (BFF) model creativity and innovation (openness), self-management (conscientiousness), social engagement (extraversion), cooperation (agreeableness), and emotional resilience (emotional stability) skills. We point to noteworthy limitations in the current operationalisation of BESSA skills (i.e., via Likert-type items) and offer up a different measurement approach: forced choice. Method: In this forced-choice paradigm, individuals were given three skill items (e.g., managing my time) and asked to select one response they believed they were “worst at” and “best at”. The Thurstonian IRT models allow these to be placed on a normative scale. Two multivariate studies (N = 1178) were conducted with a 22-item forced-choice version of the BESSA, a published measure of the BFF, and various criteria. Findings: Confirmatory factor analysis of the forced-choice assessment showed acceptable model fit (RMSEA<0.06), while reliability estimates were reasonable (around 0.70 for each construct). Convergent validity evidence was as predicted (correlations between 0.40 and 0.60 for corresponding BFF and BESSA constructs). Notable was the extent the forced-choice BESSA assessment improved upon test-criterion relationships over and above the BFF. For example, typical regression models find BFF personality accounting for 25% of the variance in life satisfaction scores; both studies showed incremental gains over the BFF exceeding 6% (i.e., BFF and BESSA together accounted for over 31% of the variance in both studies). Discussion: Forced-choice measurement models offer up the promise of creating equated test forms that may unequivocally measure skill gains and are less prone to fakability and reference bias effects. Implications for practitioners are discussed, especially those interested in selection, succession planning, and training and development. We also discuss how the forced choice method can be applied to other constructs like emotional immunity, cross-cultural competence, and self-estimates of cognitive ability.

Keywords: Big Five, forced-choice method, BFF, methods of measurements

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this paper, a nonlinear dynamical system is presented. This system is a bilinear class. The bilinear systems are very important kind of nonlinear systems because they have many applications in real life. They are used in biology, chemistry, manufacturing, engineering, and economics where linear models are ineffective or inadequate. They have also been recently used to analyze and forecast weather conditions. Bilinear systems have three advantages: First, they define many problems which have a great applied importance. Second, they give us approximations to nonlinear systems. Thirdly, they have a rich geometric and algebraic structures, which promises to be a fruitful field of research for scientists and applications. The type of nonlinearity that is treated and analyzed consists of bilinear interaction between the states vectors and the system input. By using some properties of the tensor product, these systems can be transformed to linear systems. But, here we discuss the nonlinearity when the state vector is multiplied by itself. So, this model will be able to handle evolutions according to the Lotka-Volterra models or the Lorenz weather models, thus enabling a wider and more flexible application of such models. Here we apply by using an estimator to estimate temperatures. The results prove the efficiency of the proposed system.

Keywords: Lorenz models, nonlinear systems, nonlinear estimator, state-space model

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Authors: Muñoz-Sanchez, Victor Manuel, Perez-Flores, Antonio Manuel

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The main objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between models of state organization and the various types of collective identity expressed by the Spanish. The question of nationalism and identity ascription in Spain has always been a topic of special importance due to the presence in that country of territories where the population emits very different opinions of nationalist sentiment than the rest of Spain. The current situation of sovereignty challenge of Catalonia to the central government exemplifies the importance of the subject matter. In order to analyze this process of interrelation, we use a secondary data mining by applying the multiple correspondence analysis technique (MCA). As a main result a typology of four types of expression of collective identity based on models of State organization are shown, which are connected with the party position on this issue.

Keywords: models of organization of the state, nationalism, collective identity, Spain, political parties

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity

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Authors: Olivia A. Kjorlien, Maryam Asghari, Farshid Alizadeh-Shabdiz

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The goal of this paper is to investigate the impact of mosaic augmentation on the performance of object detection solutions. To carry out the study, YOLOv4 and YOLOv4-Tiny models have been selected, which are popular, advanced object detection models. These models are also representatives of two classes of complex and simple models. The study also has been carried out on two categories of objects, simple and complex. For this study, YOLOv4 and YOLOv4 Tiny are trained with and without mosaic augmentation for two sets of objects. While mosaic augmentation improves the performance of simple object detection, it deteriorates the performance of complex object detection, specifically having the largest negative impact on the false positive rate in a complex object detection case.

Keywords: accuracy, false positives, mosaic augmentation, object detection, YOLOV4, YOLOV4-Tiny

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Authors: Houcine Naim, Abdelatif Hassini, Noureddine Benabadji, Alex Van Den Bossche

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In this paper, two models to estimate the overall monthly average daily radiation on a horizontal surface were applied to the site of Oran (35.38 ° N, 0.37 °W). We present a comparison between the first one is a regression equation of the Angstrom type and the second model is developed by the present authors some modifications were suggested using as input parameters: the astronomical parameters as (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and meteorological parameters as (relative humidity). The comparisons are made using the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean absolute bias error (MABE). This comparison shows that the second model is closer to the experimental values that the model of Angstrom.

Keywords: meteorology, global radiation, Angstrom model, Oran

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Authors: S. A. Al-Qallaf, S. A. Al-Mawsawi, A. Haider

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In order to evaluate the performance of a unified power flow controller (UPFC), mathematical models for steady state and dynamic analysis are to be developed. The steady state model is mainly concerned with the incorporation of the UPFC in load flow studies. Several load flow models for UPFC have been introduced in literature, and one of the most reliable models is the decoupled UPFC model. In spite of UPFC decoupled load flow model simplicity, it is more robust compared to other UPFC load flow models and it contains unique capabilities. Some shortcoming such as additional set of nonlinear equations are to be solved separately after the load flow solution is obtained. The aim of this study is to investigate the different control strategies that can be realized in the decoupled load flow model (individual control and combined control), and the impact of the location of the UPFC in the network on its control parameters.

Keywords: UPFC, decoupled model, load flow, control parameters

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Authors: Muhammad Waseem Akram

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The current study attempts to analyze the impact of business constraints on the growth potential and performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the electrical industry of Pakistan. Primary data have been utilized for the study collected from the electrical industry cluster in Sargodha, Pakistan. OLS regression is used to assess the impact of business constraints on the performance of SMEs by controlling the effect of Technology Level, Innovations, and Firm Size. To associate business constraints with the growth potential of SMEs, the study utilized Tetrachoric Correlation and Logistic Regression. Findings reveal that all the business constraints negatively affect the performance of SMEs in the electrical industry except Political Instability. Results of Tetrachoric Correlation show that all the business constraints are negatively correlated with the growth potential of SMEs. Logistic Regression results show that Energy Constraint, Inflation and Price Instability, and Bad Business Practices, all three business constraints cause to reduce the probability of income growth in sample SMEs.

Keywords: SMEs, business constraints, performance, growth potential

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, gain

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Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Haemophilus influenzae Type B (Hib) cause infections of pneumonia, meningitis, epiglottises and other invasive disease exclusively among children under age five. Occurrence of these infections may impair child growth by causing micronutrient deficiency. Using longitudinal data from first and second waves of Young Lives Study conducted in India during 2002 and 2006-07 respectively and multivariable logistic regression models (using generalised estimation equation to take into account the cluster nature of sample), this study aims to examine the impact of Hib vaccination on child anthropometric outcomes (stunting, underweight and wasting) in India. Bivariate result shows that, a higher percent of children were stunted and underweight among those who were not vaccinated against Hib (39% & 48% respectively) as compare to those who were vaccinated (31% and 39% respectively).The risk of childhood stunting and underweight was significantly lower among children who were vaccinated against Hib (odds ratio: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62-0.96 and odds ratio: 0.79, 95% C.I: 0.64-0.98 respectively) as compare to the unvaccinated children. No significant association was found between vaccination status against Hib and childhood wasting. Moreover, in the statistical models, about 13% of stunting and 12% of underweight could be attributable to lack of vaccination against Hib in India. Study concludes that vaccination against Hib- in addition to being a major intervention for reducing childhood infectious disease and mortality- can be consider as a potential tool for reducing the burden of undernutrition in India. Therefore, the Government of India must include the vaccine against Hib into the Universal Immunization Programme in India.

Keywords: Haemophilus influenzae Type-B, Stunting, Underweight, Wasting, Young Lives Study (YLS), India

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Authors: Jun Seung Woo, Shin Dong Ho

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The Image Captioning models with Attention technology have developed significantly compared to previous models, but it is still unsatisfactory in recognizing images. We perform an extensive search over seven interesting Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN) architectures to analyze the behavior of different models for image captioning. We compared seven different CNN Architectures, according to batch size, using on public benchmarks: MS-COCO datasets. In our experimental results, DenseNet and InceptionV3 got about 14% loss and about 160sec training time per epoch. It was the most satisfactory result among the seven CNN architectures after training 50 epochs on GPU.

Keywords: deep learning, image captioning, CNN architectures, densenet, inceptionV3

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Authors: Evgeny Pyshkin, Maxim Mozgovoy, Vladislav Volkov

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The paper follows a discourse on computer-assisted language learning. We examine problems of foreign language teaching and learning and introduce a metamodel that can be used to define learning models of language grammar structures in order to support teacher/student interaction. Special attention is paid to the concept of a virtual language lab. Our approach to language education assumes to encourage learners to experiment with a language and to learn by discovering patterns of grammatically correct structures created and managed by a language expert.

Keywords: computer-assisted instruction, language learning, natural language grammar models, HCI

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Authors: Suganya Chandrababu, Dhundy Bastola

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Like in the gut, the subgingival microbiota plays a crucial role in oral hygiene, health, and cariogenic diseases. Human activities like diet, antibiotics, and periodontal treatments alter the bacterial communities, metabolism, and functions in the oral cavity, leading to a dysbiotic state and changes in the plaques of orthodontic patients. Fixed periodontal appliances hinder oral hygiene and cause changes in the dental plaques influencing the subgingival microbiota. However, the microbial species’ diversity and complexity pose a great challenge in understanding the taxa’s community distribution patterns and their role in oral health. In this research, we analyze the subgingival microbial samples from individuals with fixed dental appliances (metal/clear) using an in silico approach. We employ exploratory hypothesis-driven multivariate and regression analysis to shed light on the microbial community and its functional fluctuations due to dental appliances used and identify risks associated with complex disease phenotypes. Our findings confirm the changes in oral microbiota composition due to the presence and type of fixed orthodontal devices. We identified seven main periodontic pathogens, including Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, and Firmicutes, whose abundances were significantly altered due to the presence and type of fixed appliances used. In the case of metal braces, the abundances of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, Candidatus saccharibacteria, and Spirochaetes significantly increased, while the abundance of Firmicutes and Actinobacteria decreased. However, in individuals With clear braces, the abundance of Bacteroidetes and Candidatus saccharibacteria increased. The highest abundance value (P-value=0.004 < 0.05) was observed with Bacteroidetes in individuals with the metal appliance, which is associated with gingivitis, periodontitis, endodontic infections, and odontogenic abscesses. Overall, the bacterial abundances decrease with clear type and increase with metal type of braces. Regression analysis further validated the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) results, supporting the hypothesis that the presence and type of the fixed oral appliances significantly alter the bacterial abundance and composition.

Keywords: oral microbiota, statistical analysis, fixed or-thodontal appliances, bacterial abundance, multivariate analysis, regression analysis

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Authors: Aditya Karade, Sharada Falane, Dhananjay Deshmukh, Vijaykumar Mantri

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Brain tumors pose a significant challenge in healthcare due to their complex nature and impact on patient outcomes. The application of deep learning (DL) algorithms in medical imaging have shown promise in accurate and efficient brain tumour detection. This paper explores the performance of various pre-trained DL models ResNet50, Xception, InceptionV3, EfficientNetB0, DenseNet121, NASNetMobile, VGG19, VGG16, and MobileNet on a brain tumour dataset sourced from Figshare. The dataset consists of MRI scans categorizing different types of brain tumours, including meningioma, pituitary, glioma, and no tumour. The study involves a comprehensive evaluation of these models’ accuracy and effectiveness in classifying brain tumour images. Data preprocessing, augmentation, and finetuning techniques are employed to optimize model performance. Among the evaluated deep learning models for brain tumour detection, ResNet50 emerges as the top performer with an accuracy of 98.86%. Following closely is Xception, exhibiting a strong accuracy of 97.33%. These models showcase robust capabilities in accurately classifying brain tumour images. On the other end of the spectrum, VGG16 trails with the lowest accuracy at 89.02%.

Keywords: brain tumour, MRI image, detecting and classifying tumour, pre-trained models, transfer learning, image segmentation, data augmentation

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Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

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The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest since it regulates the behavior of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as a combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models

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Authors: Leng Jian-Wei, Wang Lai-Jun, Li Ye

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In order to measure and analyze the transportation situation within the counties of Shaanxi province over a certain period of time and to promote the province's future transportation planning and development, this paper proposes a reasonable layout plan and compares model rationality. The study uses entropy weight method to measure the transportation advantages of 107 counties in Shaanxi province from three dimensions: road network density, trunk line influence and location advantage in 2013 and 2021, and applies spatial autocorrelation analysis method to analyze the spatial layout and development trend of county-level transportation, and conducts ordinary least square (OLS)regression on transportation impact factors and other influencing factors. The paper also compares the regression fitting degree of the Geographically weighted regression(GWR) model and the OLS model. The results show that spatially, the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province generally show a decreasing trend from the Weihe Plain to the surrounding areas and mainly exhibit high-high clustering phenomenon. Temporally, transportation advantages show an overall upward trend, and the phenomenon of spatial imbalance gradually decreases. People's travel demands have changed to some extent, and the demand for rapid transportation has increased overall. The GWR model regression fitting degree of transportation advantages is 0.74, which is higher than the OLS regression model's fitting degree of 0.64. Based on the evolution of transportation advantages, it is predicted that this trend will continue for a period of time in the future. To improve the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province increasing the layout of rapid transportation can effectively enhance the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province. When analyzing spatial heterogeneity, geographic factors should be considered to establish a more reliable model

Keywords: traffic dominance, GWR model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, temporal and spatial evolution

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

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Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Lea Stein, Sabine Rösner, Alessandra Lo Giudice, Beate Ditzen, Tewes Wischmann

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For many couples bearing children is a consistent life goal; however, it cannot always be fulfilled. Undergoing infertility treatment does not guarantee pregnancies and live births. Couples have to deal with miscarriages and sometimes even discontinue infertility treatment. Significant medical predictors for the outcome of infertility treatment have yet to be fully identified. To further our understanding, a cross-sectional five-year follow-up survey was undertaken, in which 95 women and 82 men that have been treated at the Women’s Hospital of Heidelberg University participated. Binary logistic regressions, parametric and non-parametric methods were used for our sample to determine the relevance of biological (infertility diagnoses, maternal and paternal age) and lifestyle factors (smoking, drinking, over- and underweight) on the outcome of infertility treatment (clinical pregnancy, live birth, miscarriage, dropout rate). During infertility treatment, 72.6% of couples became pregnant and 69.5% were able to give birth. Suffering from miscarriages 27.5% of couples and 20.5% decided to discontinue an unsuccessful fertility treatment. The binary logistic regression models for clinical pregnancies, live births and dropouts were statistically significant for the maternal age, whereas the paternal age in addition to maternal and paternal BMI, smoking, infertility diagnoses and infections, showed no significant predicting effect on any of the outcome variables. The results confirm an effect of maternal age on infertility treatment, whereas the relevance of other medical predictors remains unclear. Further investigations should be considered to increase our knowledge of medical predictors.

Keywords: advanced maternal age, assisted reproductive technology, female factor, male factor, medical predictors, infertility treatment, reproductive medicine

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Authors: Yue Huang, Yiheng Feng

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Due to the global pressure on climate and energy, many countries are vigorously promoting electric vehicles and building charging (public) charging facilities. Faced with the supply-demand gap of existing electric vehicle charging stations and unreasonable space usage in China, this paper takes the central city of Nanjing as an example, establishes a site selection model through multivariate data integration, conducts multiple linear regression SPSS analysis, gives quantitative site selection results, and provides optimization models and suggestions for charging station layout planning.

Keywords: electric vehicle, charging station, allocation optimization, urban mobility, urban infrastructure, nanjing

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Authors: Kassaye Balkew Workagegn, Gunnar Klemetsdal, Hans Magnus Gjøen

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In this study, the first objective was to investigate whether non-lethal or non-invasive methods, utilizing body measurements, could be used to efficiently predict fillet weight and fillet yield for a complete diallel cross of three Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) strains collected from three Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes, Lakes Ziway, Koka and Chamo. The second objective was to estimate heritability of body weight, actual and predicted fillet traits, as well as genetic correlations between these traits. A third goal was to estimate additive, reciprocal, and heterosis effects for body weight and the various fillet traits. As in females, early sexual maturation was widespread, only 958 male fish from 81 full-sib families were used, both for the prediction of fillet traits and in genetic analysis. The prediction equations from body measurements were established by forward regression analysis, choosing models with the least predicted residual error sums of squares (PRESS). The results revealed that body measurements on live Nile tilapia is well suited to predict fillet weight but not fillet yield (R²= 0.945 and 0.209, respectively), but both models were seemingly unbiased. The genetic analyses were carried out with bivariate, multibreed models. Body weight, fillet weight, and predicted fillet weight were all estimated with a heritability ranged from 0.23 to 0.28, and with genetic correlations close to one. Contrary, fillet yield was only to a minor degree heritable (0.05), while predicted fillet yield obtained a heritability of 0.19, being a resultant of two body weight variables known to have high heritability. The latter trait was estimated with genetic correlations to body weight and fillet weight traits larger than 0.82. No significant differences among strains were found for their additive genetic, reciprocal, or heterosis effects, while total heterosis effects were estimated as positive and significant (P < 0.05). As a conclusion, prediction of prediction of fillet weight based on body measurements is possible, but not for fillet yield.

Keywords: additive, fillet traits, genetic correlation, heritability, heterosis, prediction, reciprocal

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Authors: Ma. Gracia Corazon Cayanan, Kai Yuen Cheong, Li Sha

Abstract:

Training a language model for a minority language has been a challenging task. The lack of available corpora to train and fine-tune state-of-the-art language models is still a challenge in the area of Natural Language Processing (NLP). Moreover, the need for high computational resources and bulk data limit the attainment of this task. In this paper, we presented the following contributions: (1) we introduce and used a translation pair set of Tagalog and English (TL-EN) in pre-training a language model to a minority language resource; (2) we fine-tuned and evaluated top-ranking and pre-trained semantic textual similarity binary task (STSB) models, to both TL-EN and STS dataset pairs. (3) then, we reduced the size of the model to offset the need for high computational resources. Based on our results, the models that were pre-trained to translation pairs and STS pairs can perform well for STSB task. Also, having it reduced to a smaller dimension has no negative effect on the performance but rather has a notable increase on the similarity scores. Moreover, models that were pre-trained to a similar dataset have a tremendous effect on the model’s performance scores.

Keywords: semantic matching, semantic textual similarity binary task, low resource minority language, fine-tuning, dimension reduction, transformer models

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

The drying of hydraulics materials is unavoidable and conducted to important spontaneous deformations. In this study, we show that it is possible to describe the drying shrinkage of the high-performance concrete by a simple expression. A multiple regression model was developed for the prediction of the drying shrinkage of the high-performance concrete. The assessment of the proposed model has been done by a set of statistical tests. The model developed takes in consideration the main parameters of confection and conservation. There was a very good agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the multiple regression model and experimental results. The developed model adjusts easily to all hydraulic concrete types.

Keywords: hydraulic concretes, drying, shrinkage, prediction, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

Abstract:

This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 166