Search results for: urban growth model

Authors: Hanjun Hu, Jinxiang Zhang

Abstract:

With the decline of "growthism", China's urbanization process has shifted from the stage of spatial expansion to the stage of optimization of built-up spaces, and urban renewal has gradually become a new wave of China's urban movement in recent years. The ongoing urban renewal movement in China not only needs to generate new motivation for urban development but also solve the backlog of social problems caused by rapid urbanization, which provides an opportunity for the transformation of China's urban governance model. Unlike previous approaches that focused on physical space and functional renewal, such as urban reconstruction, redevelopment, and reuse, the key challenge of urban renewal in the post-growth era lies in coordinating the complex interest relationships between multiple stakeholders. The traditional theoretical frameworks that focus on the structural relations between social groups are insufficient to explain the behavior logic and mutual cooperation mechanism of various groups and individuals in the current urban renewal practices. Therefore, based on the long-term tracking of the urban renewal practices in the Old City of Nanjing (OCN), this paper introduces the "collective action" theory to deeply analyze changes in the urban renewal governance model in OCN and tries to summarize the governance strategies that promote the formation of collective action within recent practices from a micro-scale. The study found that the practice in OCN experienced three different stages "government-led", "growth coalition" and "asymmetric game". With the transformation of government governance concepts, the rise of residents' consciousness of rights, and the wider participation of social organizations in recent years, the urban renewal in OCN is entering a new stage of "collective renewal action". Through the establishment of the renewal organization model, incentive policies, and dynamic negotiation mechanism, urban renewal in OCN not only achieves a relative balance between individual interests and collective interests but also makes the willingness of residents the dominant factor in formulating urban renewal policies. However, the presentation of "collective renewal action" in OCN is still mainly based on typical cases. Although the government is no longer the dominant role, a large number of resident-led collective actions have not yet emerged, which puts forward new research needs for a sustainable governance policy innovation in this action.

Keywords: urban renewal, collective action theory, governance, cooperation mechanism, China

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Authors: Mohan Li

Abstract:

Nowadays, intelligent research technology is more and more important than traditional research methods in urban research work, and this proportion will greatly increase in the next few decades. Frequently such analyzing work cannot be carried without some software engineering knowledge. And here, domain models of urban research will be necessary when applying software engineering knowledge to urban work. In many urban plan practice projects, making rational models, feeding reliable data, and providing enough computation all make indispensable assistance in producing good urban planning. During the whole work process, domain models can optimize workflow design. At present, human beings have entered the era of big data. The amount of digital data generated by cities every day will increase at an exponential rate, and new data forms are constantly emerging. How to select a suitable data set from the massive amount of data, manage and process it has become an ability that more and more planners and urban researchers need to possess. This paper summarizes and makes predictions of the emergence of technologies and technological iterations that may affect urban research in the future, discover urban problems, and implement targeted sustainable urban strategies. They are summarized into seven major domain models. They are urban and rural regional domain model, urban ecological domain model, urban industry domain model, development dynamic domain model, urban social and cultural domain model, urban traffic domain model, and urban space domain model. These seven domain models can be used to guide the construction of systematic urban research topics and help researchers organize a series of intelligent analytical tools, such as Python, R, GIS, etc. These seven models make full use of quantitative spatial analysis, machine learning, and other technologies to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy in urban research, assisting people in making reasonable decisions.

Keywords: big data, domain model, urban planning, urban quantitative analysis, machine learning, workflow design

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu,

Abstract:

We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a stabilizing parameter called θ using hyperbolic sine function into the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while using testing the independence of the error term using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE, and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Monomolecular growth models over its source model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz

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Authors: Sandeep J. Kumar

Abstract:

Urbanisation is considered as the primary driver of land use and land cover change that has direct link to population and economic growth. In India, as well as in other developing countries, cities are urbanizing at an alarming rate. This unprecedented and uncontrolled urbanisation can result in urban sprawl. Due to a number of factors, urban sprawl is recognised to be a result of poor planning, inadequate policies, and poor governance. Urban sprawl may be seen as posing a threat to the development of sustainable cities. Hence, it is very essential to manage this. Planning for predicted future growth is critical to avoid the negative effects of urban growth at the local and regional levels. Thiruvananthapuram being the capital city of Kerala is a city of economic success, challenges, and opportunities. Urbanization trends in the city have paved way for Urban Sprawl. This thesis aims to formulate a framework to combat the emerging urban sprawl in the city of Thiruvananthapuram. For that, the first step was to quantify trends of urban growth in Thiruvananthapuram city using Geographical Information System(GIS) and remote sensing techniques. The technique and results obtained in the study are extremely valuable in analysing the land use changes. Secondly, these change in the trends were analysed through some of the critical factors that helped the study to understand the underlying issues of the existing city structure that has resulted in urban sprawl. Anticipating development trends can modify the current order. This can be productively resolved using regional and municipal planning and management strategies. Hence efficient strategies to curb the sprawl in Thiruvananthapuram city have been formulated in this study that can be considered as recommendations for future planning.

Keywords: urbanisation, urban sprawl, geographical information system(GIS), thiruvananthapuram

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Authors: Guoqin Ge, Minhui Huang, Yazhou Zhou

Abstract:

The growth of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has been designated as a national strategy in China. Analyzing its spatial evolution characteristics is crucial for devising relevant development strategies. This paper enhances the gravitational model by using temporal distance as a factor. It applies this improved model to assess the economic interconnection and concentration level of each geographical unit within the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration between 2011 and 2019. On this basis, this paper examines the spatial correlation characteristics of economic agglomeration intensity and urban-rural development equalization by employing spatial autocorrelation analysis. The study findings indicate that the spatial integration in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is currently in the "point-axis" development stage. The spatial organization structure is becoming more flattened, and there is a stronger economic connection between the core of the urban agglomeration and the peripheral areas. The integration of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is currently hindered by conflicting interests and institutional heterogeneity between Chengdu and Chongqing. Additionally, the connections between the relatively secondary spatial units are largely loose and weak. The strength and scale of economic ties and the level of urban-rural equilibrium among spatial units within the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration have increased, but regional imbalances have continued to widen, and such positive and negative changes have been characterized by the spatial and temporal synergistic evolution of the "core-periphery". Ultimately, this paper presents planning ideas for the future integration development of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, drawing from the findings.

Keywords: integration, planning strategy, space organization, space evolution, urban agglomeration

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Authors: Zhiqiang Yan, Chen Fan, Yafei Wang, Beicheng Xia

Abstract:

Urban lakes play an invaluable role in urban water systems such as flood control, water supply, and public recreation. However, over 38% of the urban lakes have suffered from severe eutrophication in China. Chlorine that could remarkably inhibit the growth of phytoplankton in eutrophic, has been widely used in the agricultural, aquaculture and industry in the recent past. However, little information has been reported regarding the effects of chlorine on the lake ecosystem, especially on the main aquatic species.To investigate the ecological response of main aquatic species and system stability to chlorine interference in shallow urban lakes, a mini system dynamic model was developed based on the competition and predation of main aquatic species and total phosphorus circulation. The main species of submerged macrophyte, phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, spiroggra and total phosphorus in water and sediment were used as variables in the model,while the interference of chlorine on phytoplankton was represented by an exponential attenuation equation. Furthermore, the eco-exergy expressing the development degree of ecosystem was used to quantify the complexity of the shallow urban lake. The model was validated using the data collected in the Lotus Lake in Guangzhoufrom1 October 2015 to 31 January 2016.The correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) and index of agreement (IOA) were calculated to evaluate accuracy and reliability of the model.The simulated values showed good qualitative agreement with the measured values of all components. The model results showed that chlorine had a notable inhibitory effect on Microcystis aeruginos，Rachionus plicatilis, Diaphanosoma brachyurum Liévin and Mesocyclops leuckarti (Claus).The outbreak of Spiroggra.spp. inhibited the growth of Vallisneria natans (Lour.) Hara, leading to a gradual decrease of eco-exergy and the breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This study gives important insight into using chlorine to achieve eutrophication control and understand mechanism process.

Keywords: system dynamic model, urban lake, chlorine, eco-exergy

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Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies

Keywords: crop yield, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Ahmad Sharif Ahmadi, Yoshitaka Kajita

Abstract:

With massive population expansion and fast economic development in last decade, urban land has increasingly expanded and formed high informal development territory in Kabul city. This paper investigates integrated urbanization trends in Kabul city since the formation of the basic structure of the present city using GIS and remote sensing. This study explores the spatial and temporal difference of urban land expansion and land use categories among different time intervals, 1964-1978 and 1978-2008 from 1964 to 2008 in Kabul city. Furthermore, the goal of this paper is to understand the extent of urban land expansion and the factors driving urban land expansion in Kabul city. Many factors like population expansion, the return of refugees from neighboring countries and significant economic growth of the city affected urban land expansion. Across all the study area urban land expansion rate, population expansion rate and economic growth rate have been compared to analyze the relationship of driving forces with urban land expansion. Based on urban land change data detected by interpreting land use maps, it was found that in the entire study area the urban territory has been expanded by 14 times between 1964 and 2008.

Keywords: GIS, Kabul city, land use, urban land expansion, urbanization

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Authors: Solotan A. Tolulope

Abstract:

Due to the lack of application of laws, implementers' acquaintance with the principles of urban planning, or the absence of laws and the governmental role, cities and their urban growth developed more than the fundamental designs and plans. This has led to a lack of foundations and criteria for achieving a life that provides the needs of sufficient housing in urban planning. In this study, we attempted to use cutting-edge innovations and technology to manage and resolve issues while collaborating with planning cadres that have the potential to significantly and favorably impact urban development. This helps to enhance management's function and the effectiveness of urban planning and management. To fulfill the needs of the community and the neighborhoods of these cities, modern approaches and technologies are used, addressing the criteria of sustainability and development. To put the notion of urban sustainability and development into action, this has been researched using global experiences.

Keywords: application, modern, technologies, urban, development

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri, Hugang Han

Abstract:

This paper clarifies the role of ICT capital in Economic Growth. Albeit ICT remarkably contributes to economic growth, there are few studies on ICT capital in ICT sector from theoretical point of view. In this paper, production function of ICT which is used as input of intermediate good in final good and ICT sectors is incorporated into our model. In this setting, we analyze the role of ICT on balance growth path and show the possibility of general equilibrium solutions for this model. Through the simulation of the equilibrium solutions, we find that when ICT impacts on economy and economic growth increases, it is necessary that increases of efficiency at ICT sector and of accumulation of non-ICT and ICT capitals occur simultaneously.

Keywords: endogenous economic growth, ICT, intensity, capital accumulation

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Authors: Sheena K. J., Jyoti Badge, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

Abstract:

A Comparative Study of Exponential and Logistic Population Growth Models in India India is the second most populous city in the world, just behind China, and is going to be in the first place by next year. The Indian population has remarkably at higher rate than the other countries from the past 20 years. There were many scientists and demographers who has formulated various models of population growth in order to study and predict the future population. Some of the models are Fibonacci population growth model, Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Lotka-Volterra model, etc. These models have been effective in the past to an extent in predicting the population. However, it is essential to have a detailed comparative study between the population models to come out with a more accurate one. Having said that, this research study helps to analyze and compare the two population models under consideration - exponential and logistic growth models, thereby identifying the most effective one. Using the census data of 2011, the approximate population for 2016 to 2031 are calculated for 20 Indian states using both the models, compared and recorded the data with the actual population. On comparing the results of both models, it is found that logistic population model is more accurate than the exponential model, and using this model, we can predict the future population in a more effective way. This will give an insight to the researchers about the effective models of population and how effective these population models are in predicting the future population.

Keywords: population growth, population models, exponential model, logistic model, fibonacci model, lotka-volterra model, future population prediction, demographers

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Authors: Adelayo Akeem Jolaoye

Abstract:

Historically urban centers serve as the fulcrum upon which significant complex social and economic development rest. Despite their fixed geographical locations, though in different degree, cities generate self-sustenance and multiplier effects in all aspects of life. They also house inestimable human capital, which serves as a power house for future generation transformation requirements. Unfortunately, the untamed global urbanization process has resulted in an unimaginable damage to the urban social structure as well as urban environmental value. The preceding has caused cities failure in performing their expected roles worst still becoming a regional burden and national liabilities. This paper briefly discusses the ecological concept of urban settlements and reviews the world historical urban evolution and growth. Also, given the above-mentioned anomalies, the paper also raised conceptual principles of urban planning as well as administrative policies for its strategic management.

Keywords: city, urbanization, urban planning, urban malice

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Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Zhao Haoyue

Abstract:

Due to the combined effects of climate change, urban expansion, and population growth, various environmental issues, such as urban heat islands and pollution, arise. Therefore, reliable information on urban environmental climate is needed to address and mitigate the negative effects. The emergence of urban climate maps provides a practical basis for urban climate regulation and improvement. This article takes Shapingba District, Chongqing City, as an example to study the construction method of urban thermal environment climate maps based on GIS spatial analysis technology. The thermal load, ventilation potential analysis map, and thermal environment comprehensive analysis map were obtained. Based on the classification criteria obtained from the climate map, corresponding protection and planning mitigation measures have been proposed.

Keywords: urban climate, GIS, heat island analysis, urban thermal environment

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Authors: Rachita Lal

Abstract:

Urban sprawl is a significant contributor to land use change in developing countries, where urbanization rates are high. The most important driver of environmental changes is also considered to be the shift in land use and land cover. Our local and regional land managers must carefully analyze urbanization and its effects on cities to make the best choices. This study uses satellite imagery to examine how urbanization affects the local ecosystem through geographic expansion. The following research focuses on the effects of city growth on the local environment, land use, and Land cover. The primary focus of this research is to study, To understand the role of urbanization on city expansion. To study the impact of spatial growth of urban areas on the Land cover. In this paper, the GIS tool will be used to analyze. For this purpose, four digital images are used for the years 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2019. The use of the approach in the Bhubaneswar Urban Core, one of the fastest developing and planned cities in India, has proved that it is highly beneficial and successful for monitoring urban sprawl. It offers a helpful tool for quantitative assessment, which is crucial for determining the spatial dynamics, variations, and changes of urban sprawl patterns in quickly increasing regions.

Keywords: LULC, urbanization, environment impact assessment, spatial growth

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Authors: K. J. Jegede, O. O. Odekunle

Abstract:

The challenges facing government at all levels in the area of urban development are two folds, first is how to provide basic services for urban dwellers especially the urban poor and second, how to make cities and towns as model of good places for economic development. The key ingredients and catalysts for achieving these goals are strong and virile institutional capacity, urban infrastructure and a supportive urban policy framework. The government at all levels have been upgrading and expanding city infrastructure and services in Ibadan, the state capital to support sustainable economic development of the city, particularly in the areas of electricity, neighbourhood, solid waste management, transport, water supply, education, health facilities and markets developments to discourage street trading. This paper attempts to present Ibadan in the millennium as 'a model of a sustainable city'. A planned development strategy that had sustained the growth of the city from a war camp in the 19th century to a cosmopolitan city in the 21st century with the potential to become a megacity. The presentation examines, among others, the physical structure and population density of Ibadan city, the challenges of economic development, the development of urban infrastructure and services in Ibadan metropolitan area. The paper submitted by mapping out a strategy to achieve sustainable development of Ibadan city.

Keywords: megacity, physical structure, sustainable city, urban infrastructure

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Authors: L. Salvati, D. Smiraglia, S. Bajocco, M. Munafò

Abstract:

This paper focuses on Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) occurred in the urban coastal regions of the Mediterranean basin in the last thirty years. LULCC were assessed diachronically (1975-2006) in two urban areas, Rome (Italy) and Athens (Greece), by using CORINE land cover maps. In strictly coastal territories a persistent growth of built-up areas at the expenses of both agricultural and forest land uses was found. On the contrary, a different pattern was observed in the surrounding inland areas, where a high conversion rate of the agricultural land uses to both urban and forest land uses was recorded. The impact of city growth on the complex pattern of coastal LULCC is finally discussed.

Keywords: land use changes, coastal region, Rome prefecture, Attica, southern Europe

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Authors: Zhiqiang Yan, Chen Fan, Beicheng Xia

Abstract:

Urban lakes play an invaluable role in urban water systems such as flood control, landscape, entertainment, and energy utilization, and have suffered from severe eutrophication over the past few years. To investigate the ecological response of main aquatic species and system stability to chlorine interference in shallow urban lakes, a mini system dynamic model, based on the competition and predation of main aquatic species and TP circulation, was developed. The main species of submerged macrophyte, phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and TP in water and sediment were simulated as variables in the model with the interference of chlorine which effect function was attenuation equation. The model was validated by the data which was investigated in the Lotus Lake in Guangzhou from October 1, 2015 to January 31, 2016. Furthermore, the eco-exergy was used to analyze the change in complexity of the shallow urban lake. The results showed the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated values of all components presented significant. Chlorine showed a significant inhibitory effect on Microcystis aeruginosa，Rachionus plicatilis, Diaphanosoma brachyurum Liévin and Mesocyclops leuckarti (Claus).The outbreak of Spiroggra spp. inhibited the growth of Vallisneria natans (Lour.) Hara, caused a gradual decrease of eco-exergy, reflecting the breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. It was concluded that the study gives important insight into using chlorine to achieve eutrophication control and understand mechanism process.

Keywords: system dynamic model, urban lake, chlorine, eco-exergy

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Authors: Ruoyu Mao

Abstract:

Exploring the relationship between urban green development and regional integration level is of great significance for realising regional high quality and sustainable development. Based on the Tapio decoupling model and the theoretical framework of urban green development and regional integration, this paper builds an analysis system, makes a quantitative analysis of urban green development and regional integration level in a certain period, and discusses the relationship between the two. It also takes China's Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example to study the degree of decoupling, the type of decoupling, and the trend of the evolution of the spatio-temporal pattern of decoupling between the level of urban green development and the level of regional integration in the period of 2014-2021, with the aim of providing a useful reference for the future development of the region.

Keywords: regional integration, urban green development, Tapio decoupling model, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

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Authors: Lu Lin

Abstract:

Urbanization has reshaped physical environment, energy consumption and carbon emission of the urban area. China is a typical developing country under a rapid urbanization process and is the world largest carbon emission country. This study aims to explore the correlation between urban form and carbon emission caused by urban energy consumption in China. 287 provincial-level and prefecture-level cities are studied in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Compact ratio index, shape index, and fractal dimension index are used to quantify urban form. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is employed to explore the relationship between urban form, energy consumption, and related carbon emission. The results show the average compact ratio index decreased from 2000 to 2010 which indicates urban in China sprawled. The average fractal dimension index increases by 3%, indicating the spatial layouts of China's cities were more complicated. The results by the GWR model show that shape index and fractal dimension index had a non-significant relationship with carbon emission by urban energy consumption. However, compact urban form reduced carbon emission. The findings of this study will help policy-makers make sustainable urban planning and reduce urban carbon emission.

Keywords: carbon emission, GWR model, urban energy consumption, urban form

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Authors: Safar Ghaedrahmati, Leila Soltani

Abstract:

Population centralization in urban area and metropolitans, especially in developing countries such as Iran increase metropolitan's problems. For few decades, the population of cities in developing countries, including Iran had a higher growth rate than the total growth rate of countries’ population. While in developed countries, the development of the big cities began decades ago and generally allowed for controlled and planned urban expansion, the opposite is the case in developing countries, where rapid urbanization process is characterized by an unplanned existing urban expansion. The developing metropolitan cities have enormous difficulties in coping both with the natural population growth and the urban physical expansion. Iranian cities are usually the heart of economic and cultural changes that have occurred after the Islamic revolution in 1979. These cities are increasingly having impacts via political–economical arrangement and chiefly by urban management structures. Structural features have led to the population growth of cities and urbanization (in number, population and physical frame) and the main problems in them. On the other hand, the lack of birth control policies and the deceptive attractions of cities, particularly big cities, and the birth rate has shot up, something which has occurred mainly in rural regions and small cities. The population of Iran has increased rapidly since 1956. The 1956 and 1966 decennial censuses counted the population of Iran at 18.9 million and 25.7 million, respectively, with a 3.1% annual growth rate during the 1956–1966 period. The 1976 and 1986 decennial censuses counted Iran’s population at 33.7 and 49.4 million, respectively, a 2.7% and 3.9% annual growth rate during the 1966–1976 and 1976–1986 periods. The 1996 count put Iran’s population at 60 million, a 1.96% annual growth rate from 1986–1996 and the 2006 count put Iran population at 72 million. A recent major policy of urban economic and industrial decentralization is a persistent program of the government. The policy has been identified as a result of the massive growth of Tehran in the recent years, up to 9 million by 2010. Part of the growth of the capitally resulted from the lack of economic opportunities elsewhere and in order to redress the developing primacy of Tehran and the domestic pressures which it is undergoing, the policy of decentralization is to be implemented as quickly as possible. Type of research is applied and method of data collection is documentary and methods of analysis are; population analysis with urban system analysis and urban distribution system

Keywords: population centralization, cities of Iran, urban centralization, urban system

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Eslamlou, Manouchehr Tabibian, Mahta Mirmoghtadaei

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The history of urban development and the increasing complexities of urban life have long been intertwined with different natural and man-made disasters. Sometimes, these unpleasant events have destroyed the cities forever. The growth of the urban population and the increase of social and economic resources in the cities increased the importance of developing a holistic approach to dealing with unknown urban disasters. As a result, the interest in resilience has increased in most of the scientific fields, and the urban planning literature has been enriched with the studies of the social, economic, infrastructural, and physical abilities of the cities. In this regard, different conceptual frameworks and patterns have been developed focusing on dimensions of resilience and different kinds of disasters. As the most frequent and likely natural disaster in Iran is flooding, the present study aims to develop a cause-effect model of urban resilience against flood in Karaj City. In this theoretical study, desk research and documentary studies were used to find the elements and dimensions of urban resilience. In this regard, 6 dimensions and 32 elements were found for urban resilience and a questionnaire was made by considering the requirements of TOPSIS techniques (pairwise comparison). The sample of the research consisted of 10 participants who were faculty members, academicians, board members of research centers, managers of the Ministry of Road and Urban Development, board members of New Towns Development Company, experts, and practitioners of consulting companies who had scientific and research backgrounds. The gathered data in this survey were analyzed using TOPSIS and Shannon Entropy techniques. The results show that Infrastructure/Physical, Social, Organizational/ Institutional, Structural/Physical, Economic, and Environmental dimensions are the most effective factors in urban resilience against floods in Karaj, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive model and a systematic framework of factors that affect the urban resilience of Karaj against floods was developed. This cause – effect model shows how different factors are related and influence each other, based on their connected structure and preferences.

Keywords: urban resilience, TOPSIS, Shannon entropy, cause-effect model of resilience, flood

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Authors: Berhanu Keno Terfa

Abstract:

To realize the consequences of urbanization, accurate, and up-to-date representation of the urban landscape patterns is critical for urban planners and policymakers. Thus, the study quantitatively characterized the spatiotemporal composition and configuration of the urban landscape and urban expansion process in Dire Dawa City, Ethiopia, form the year 2006 to 2018. The integrated approaches of various sensors satellite data, Spot (2006) and Sentinel 2 (2018) combined with landscape metrics analysis was employed to explore the pattern, process, and overall growth status in the city. The result showed that the built-up area had increased by 62% between 2006 and 2018, at an average annual increment of 3.6%, while the other land covers were lost significantly due to urban expansion. The highest urban expansion has occurred in the northwest direction, whereas the most fragmented landscape pattern was recorded in the west direction. Overall, the analysis showed that Dire Dawa City experienced accelerated urban expansion with a fragmented and complicated spatiotemporal urban landscape patterns, suggesting a strong tendency towards sprawl over the past 12 years. The findings in the study could help planners and policy developers to insight the historical dynamics of the urban region for sustainable development.

Keywords: zonal metrics, multi-temporal, multi-resolution, urban growth, remote sensing data

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, crystal growth technologies have made progress by the requirement for the high quality of crystal materials. To control the crystal growth dynamics actively by external forces is useuful for reducing composition non-uniformity. In this study, a control method based on model predictive control using thermal inputs is proposed for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials. The control system of crystal growth dynamics considered here is governed by the continuity, momentum, energy, and mass transport equations. To establish the control method for such thermal fluid systems, we adopt model predictive control known as a kind of optimal feedback control in which the control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control method for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials.

Keywords: model predictive control, optimal control, process control, crystal growth

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Authors: Abdelrahman Elsehsah

Abstract:

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics in Riyadh over a decade were comprehensively analyzed using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. By harnessing the Landsat 8 Image collection and night-time light image collection from May to August for the years 2013 and 2023, we were able to generate insightful datasets capturing the changing landscape of the region. Our approach involved a Random Forest (RF) classification model that consistently displayed commendable precision scores above 92% for both years. A notable discovery from the study was the pronounced urban expansion, particularly around Riyadh city. Within a mere ten-year span, urbanization surged noticeably, affecting the broader ecological environment of the region. Interestingly, the northeastern part of Riyadh emerged as a focal point of this growth, signaling rapid urban growth of urban sprawl and development. A comparison between the two years indicates a 21.51% increase in built-up areas, revealing the transformative pace of urban sprawl. Contrastingly, vegetation cover patterns presented a more nuanced picture. While our initial hypothesis predicted a decline in vegetation, the actual findings depicted both vegetation reduction in certain pockets and new growth in others, resulting in an overall 25.89% increase. This intricate pattern might be attributed to shifting agricultural practices, afforestation efforts, or even satellite image timings not aligning with seasonal vegetation growth. The bare soil, predominant in the desert landscape of Riyadh, saw a marginal reduction of 0.37% over the decade, challenging our initial expectations. Urban and agricultural advancements in Saudi Arabia appear to have slightly reduced the expanse of barren terrains. This study, underpinned by a rigorous methodological framework, reveals the multifaceted land cover changes in Riyadh in response to urban development and environmental factors. The precise, data-driven insights provided by our analysis serve as invaluable tools for understanding urban growth trajectories, guiding urban planning, policy formulation, and sustainable development endeavors in the region.

Keywords: remote sensing, KSA, ArcGIS, spatio-temporal

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Authors: Weiping Liu

Abstract:

This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Shahab Mirzaean Mahabadi, Elham Ebrahimi

Abstract:

The urban development process in the historical urban context has predominately witnessed two main approaches: the first is the Preservation and conservation of the urban fabric and its value, and the second approach is urban renewal and redevelopment. The latter is generally supported by political and economic aspirations. These two approaches conflict evidently. The authors go through the history of urban planning in order to review the historical development of the mentioned approaches. In this article, various values which are inherent in the historical fabric of a city are illustrated by emphasizing on cultural identity and activity. In the following, it is tried to find an optimized plan which maximizes economic development and minimizes change in historical-cultural sites simultaneously. In the proposed model, regarding the decision maker’s intention, and the variety of functions, the selected zone is divided into a number of components. For each component, different alternatives can be assigned, namely, renovation, refurbishment, destruction, and change in function. The decision Variable in this model is to choose an alternative for each component. A set of decisions made upon all components results in a plan. A plan developed in this way can be evaluated based on the decision maker’s point of view. That is, interactions between selected alternatives can make a foundation for the assessment of urban context to design a historical-cultural landscape. A genetic algorithm (GA) approach is used to search for optimal future land use within the historical-culture landscape for a sustainable high-growth city.

Keywords: urban sustainability, green city, regeneration, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

Abstract:

The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Muhammad Ali Khan

Abstract:

Education is a word has been derived from Latin word "Educare", means to train. Therefore, the harmonious growth of the potentialities for achieving the qualities desirable and useful in the human society is called education. It is claimed that by educating women we can develop our economy, family health and decrease population growth. To explore the socio-economic impact of education on urban women. A prospective study design was used. Over a period of six months 50 respondents were randomly selected from Hayat Abad, an urban city in the North West of Pakistan. A questionnaire was used to explore marital, educational, occupational, social, economical and political status of urban women. Of the total, 50% (25) were employed, where 56% were married and 44% unmarried. Of the employed participants, 56% were teachers fallowed by social worker 16%. Monthly income was significantly high (p=001) of women with master degree. Understanding between wife and husband was also very significant in women with masters. . 78% of employed women replied that Parda (Hija) should be on choice not imposed. 52% of educated women replied participation in social activates, such as parties, shopping etc. Education has a high impact on urban women because it is directly related to employment, decision of power, economy and social life. Urban women with high education have significant political awareness and empowerment. Improving women educational level in rural areas of Pakistan is the key for economic growth and political empowerment

Keywords: women, urban, Pakistan, socio economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Habibi Said Mustafa, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

Since 2006, Afghanistan is dealing with one of the most dramatic trend of urban movement in its history, cities and towns are expanding in size and number. Kabul is the capital of Afghanistan and as well as the fast-growing city in the Asia. The influx of the returnees from neighbor countries and other provinces of Afghanistan caused high rate of artificial growth which slums increased. As an unwanted consequence of this growth, today informal settlements have covered a vast portion of the city. Land Readjustment (LR) has proved to be an important tool for developing informal settlements and reorganizing urban areas but its implementation always varies from country to country and region to region within the countries. Consequently, to successfully develop the informal settlements in Kabul, we need to define an Afghan model of LR specifically for Afghanistan which needs to incorporate all those factors related to the socio-economic condition of the country. For this purpose, a part of the old city of Kabul has selected as a study area which is located near the Central Business District (CBD). After the further analysis and incorporating all needed factors, the result shows a positive potential for the implementation of an adaptable Land Readjustment model for Kabul city which is more sustainable and socio-economically friendly. It will enhance quality of life and provide better urban services for the residents. Moreover, it will set a vision and criteria by which sustainable developments shall proceed in other similar informal settlements of Kabul.

Keywords: adaptation, informal settlements, Kabul, land readjustment, preservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 204