Search results for: statistical modelling

Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

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Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development rocess and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: COCOMO II, busines process modeling, cost estimation method, BPM COCOMO

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Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

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This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.

Keywords: on-body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model, body movement

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Authors: Sadık Ata, Kevser Dincer

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In this study, the performance of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell was experimentally investigated and modelled with Rule-Based Mamdani-Type Fuzzy (RBMTF) modelling technique. Coating on the anode side of the PEM fuel cell was accomplished with the spin method by using Yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ). Input-output parameters were described by RBMTF if-then rules. Numerical parameters of input and output variables were fuzzificated as linguistic variables: Very Very Low (L1), Very Low (L2), Low (L3), Negative Medium (L4), Medium (L5), Positive Medium (L6),High (L7), Very High (L8) and Very Very High (L9) linguistic classes. The comparison between experimental data and RBMTF is done by using statistical methods like absolute fraction of variance (R2). The actual values and RBMTF results indicated that RBMTF can be successfully used for the analysis of performance PEM fuel cell.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane (PEM), fuel cell, rule-based mamdani-type fuzzy (RMBTF) modelling, Yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ)

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Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

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We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

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Authors: Baha Hasan, Jan Wikander

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This paper describes a part of the integrating work between assembly design and assembly process planning domains (APP). The work is based, in its first stage, on modelling assembly features to support APP. A multi-layer architecture, based on feature-based modelling, is proposed to establish a dynamic and adaptable link between product design using CAD tools and APP. The proposed approach is based on deriving “specific function” features from the “generic” assembly and form features extracted from the CAD tools. A hierarchal structure from “generic” to “specific” and from “high level geometrical entities” to “low level geometrical entities” is proposed in order to integrate geometrical and assembly data extracted from geometrical and assembly modelers to the required processes and resources in APP. The feature concept, feature-based modelling, and feature recognition techniques are reviewed.

Keywords: assembly feature, assembly process planning, feature, feature-based modelling, form feature, ontology

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Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

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The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model

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Authors: Nidhi Gaur, Padmaja Joshi, Vijay Jain, Rajeev Srivastava

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Web application architecture is important to achieve the desired performance for the application. Performance analysis studies are conducted to evaluate existing or planned systems. Web applications are used by hundreds of thousands of users simultaneously, which sometimes increases the risk of server failure in real time operations. We use Coloured Petri Net (CPN), a very powerful tool for modelling dynamic behaviour of a web application system. CPNs extend the vocabulary of ordinary Petri nets and add features that make them suitable for modelling large systems. The major focus of this work is on server side of web applications. The presented work focuses on modelling restructuring aspects, with major focus on concurrency and architecture, using CPN. It also focuses on bringing out the appropriate architecture for web and database servers given the number of concurrent users.

Keywords: coloured Petri Nets (CPNs), concurrent users, per- formance modelling, web application architecture

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Authors: M. Ananthakrishnan, Sunil K Patil, Koti Naveen, Inuganti Hemanth Kumar

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State estimation output of EMS forms the base case for all other advanced applications used in real time by a power system operator. Ensuring tuning of state estimator is a repeated process and cannot be left once a good solution is obtained. This paper attempts to demonstrate methods to improve state estimator solution by identifying incorrect modelling and telemetry inputs to the application. In this work, identification of database topology modelling error by plotting static network using node-to-node connection details is demonstrated with examples. Analytical methods to identify wrong transmission parameters, incorrect limits and mistakes in pseudo load and generator modelling are explained with various cases observed. Further, methods used for active and reactive power tuning using bus summation display, reactive power absorption summary, and transformer tap correction are also described. In a large power system, verifying all network static data and modelling parameter on regular basis is difficult .The proposed tuning methods can be easily used by operators to quickly identify errors to obtain the best possible state estimation performance. This, in turn, can lead to improved decision-support capabilities, ultimately enhancing the safety and reliability of the power grid.

Keywords: active power tuning, database modelling, reactive power, state estimator

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Mohamed Elghorab, Vendra C. Madhav Rao, Jennifer X. Wen

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Turbulence modelling is still evolving, and efforts are on to improve and develop numerical methods to simulate the real turbulence structures by using the empirical and experimental information. The monotonically integrated large eddy simulation (MILES) is an attractive approach for modelling turbulence in high Re flows, which is based on the solving of the unfiltered flow equations with no explicit sub-grid scale (SGS) model. In the current work, this approach has been used, and the action of the SGS model has been included implicitly by intrinsic nonlinear high-frequency filters built into the convection discretization schemes. The MILES solver is developed using the opensource CFD OpenFOAM libraries. The role of flux limiters schemes namely, Gamma, superBee, van-Albada and van-Leer, is studied in predicting turbulent statistical quantities for a fully developed channel flow with a friction Reynolds number, Re_T = 180, and compared the numerical predictions with the well-established Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for studying the wall generated turbulence. It is inferred from the numerical predictions that Gamma, van-Leer and van-Albada limiters produced more diffusion and overpredicted the velocity profiles, while superBee scheme reproduced velocity profiles and turbulence statistical quantities in good agreement with the reference DNS data in the streamwise direction although it deviated slightly in the spanwise and normal to the wall directions. The simulation results are further discussed in terms of the turbulence intensities and Reynolds stresses averaged in time and space to draw conclusion on the flux limiter schemes performance in OpenFOAM context.

Keywords: flux limiters, implicit SGS, MILES, OpenFOAM, turbulence statistics

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Authors: J. Fernandez de Canete, S. Fernandez-Calvo, I. García-Moral

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This paper presents and discusses the application of the object-oriented modelling software SIMSCAPE to hydraulic systems, with particular reference to multivariable proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control. As a result, a particular modelling approach of a double cylinder-piston coupled system is proposed and motivated, and the SIMULINK based PID tuning tool has also been used to select the proper controller parameters. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the object-oriented approach when both physical modelling and control are tackled.

Keywords: object-oriented modeling, multivariable hydraulic system, multivariable PID control, computer simulation

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Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

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In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique, author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation

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Authors: Zoja Raud, Valery Vodovozov

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Modelling and simulation provide effective way to acquire engineering experience. An active approach to modelling and simulation proposed in the paper involves, beside the compulsory part directed by the traditional step-by-step instructions, the new optional part basing on the human’s habits to design thus stimulating the efforts towards success in active learning. Computer exercises as a part of engineering curriculum incorporate a set of effective activities. In addition to the knowledge acquired in theoretical training, the described educational arrangement helps to develop problem solutions, computation skills, and experimentation performance along with enhancement of practical experience and qualification.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, engineering education, electronics, active learning

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Authors: Ademuyiwa Agbonyin, Stamatis Zoras, Mohammad Zandi

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This paper investigates the extent to which building energy modelling can be informed based on preliminary information provided by infrared thermography using a thermal imaging camera in a walkthrough audit. The case-study building is the Sheffield Cathedral, built in the early 1400s. Based on an informative qualitative report generated from the thermal images taken at the site, the regions showing significant heat loss are input into a computer model of the cathedral within the integrated environmental solution (IES) virtual environment software which performs an energy simulation to determine quantitative heat losses through the building envelope. Building data such as material thermal properties and building plans are provided by the architects, Thomas Ford and Partners Ltd. The results of the modelling revealed the portions of the building with the highest heat loss and these aligned with those suggested by the thermal camera. Retrofit options for the building are also considered, however, may not see implementation due to a desire to conserve the architectural heritage of the building. Results show that thermal imaging in a walk-through audit serves as a useful guide for the energy modelling process. Hand calculations were also performed to serve as a 'control' to estimate losses, providing a second set of data points of comparison.

Keywords: historic buildings, energy retrofit, thermal comfort, software modelling, energy modelling

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

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This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: counterpoise, grounding conductor, effective length, lightning, Monte Carlo method, statistical distribution

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Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: Safari Mat Desa, Othman A. Karim, Mohd Kamarulhuda Samion, Saiful Bahri Hamzah

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Rubble mound breakwater was one of the most popular designs in Malaysia, constructed at the river mouth to dissipate the incoming wave energy from the seaward. Geometrically characteristics in trapezoid, crest width, and bottom width will determine the hypotonus stability, whilst structural height was designed for wave overtopping consideration. Physical hydraulic modelling in two-dimensional facilities was instigated in the flume to test the stability as well as the overtopping rate complied with the method of similarity, namely kinematic, dynamic, and geometric. Scaling effects of wave characteristics were carried out in order to acquire significant interaction of wave height, wave period, and water depth. Results showed two-dimensional physical modelling has proven reliable capability to ascertain breakwater stability significantly.

Keywords: breakwater, geometrical characteristic, wave overtopping, physical hydraulic modelling, method of similarity, wave characteristic

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Authors: Sidique Gawusu, Xiaobing Zhang

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Turbulence models play a significant role in all computational fluid dynamics based modelling approaches. There is, however, no general turbulence model suitable for all flow scenarios. Therefore, a successful numerical modelling approach is only achievable if a more appropriate closure model is used. This paper evaluates different turbulence models in numerical modelling of oil-water flow within the Eulerian-Eulerian approach. A comparison among the obtained numerical results and published benchmark data showed reasonable agreement. The domain was meshed using structured mesh, and grid test was performed to ascertain grid independence. The evaluation of the models was made through analysis of velocity and pressure profiles across the domain. The models were tested for their suitability to accurately obtain a scalable and precise numerical experience. As a result, it is found that all the models except Standard-ω provide comparable results. The study also revealed new insights on flow in porous media, specifically oil reservoirs.

Keywords: turbulence modelling, simulation, multi-phase flows, water-flooding, heavy oil

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Authors: Ushir Daya, Zenadene Lazarus, Dimelle Moodley, Ehsan Saghatforoush

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It was found through literature that there is a lack of implementation of the Internet of Things (IoT) incorporated into Building Information Modelling (BIM) in South Africa. The research aims to find if the implementation of IoT into BIM will make BIM more useful during the maintenance stage of buildings and assist facility managers when doing their job. The research will look at the existing problematic areas with building information modelling, specifically BIM 7D. This paper will look at the capabilities of IoT and what issues IoT will be able to resolve in BIM software, as well as how IoT into BIM will assist facility managers and if such an implementation will make a facility manager's job more efficient.

Keywords: internet of things, building information modeling, facilities management, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Sumit Tiwari, Rohit Tripathi, G. N. Tiwari

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Present study focused on the utilization of solar energy by the help of photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer under forced mode. A single slope photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer has been proposed and thermal modelling has been developed. Various parameters have been calculated by thermal modelling such as greenhouse room temperature, cell temperature, crop temperature and air temperature at exit of greenhouse. Further cell efficiency, thermal efficiency, and overall thermal efficiency have been calculated for a typical day of May and November. It was found that system can generate equivalent thermal energy up to 7.65 kW and 6.66 kW per day for clear day of May and November respectively.

Keywords: characteristics curve, photovoltaic, thermal modelling, thermal efficiency

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Authors: Nathaporn Areerachakul

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In this study, the adsorption capacity of GAC with metsulfuron methyl was evaluated by using adsorption equilibrium and a fixed bed. Mathematical modelling was also used to simulate the GAC adsorption behavior. Adsorption equilibrium experiment of GAC was conducted using a constant concentration of metsulfuron methyl of 10 mg/L. The purpose of this study was to find the single component equilibrium concentration of herbicide. The adsorption behavior was simulated using the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Sips isotherm. The Sips isotherm fitted the experimental data reasonably well with an error of 6.6 % compared with 15.72 % and 7.07% for the Langmuir isotherm and Freudrich isotherm. Modelling using GAC adsorption theory could not replicate the experimental results in fixed bed column of 10 and 15 cm bed depths after a period more than 10 days of operation. This phenomenon is attributed to the formation of micro-organism (BAC) on the surface of GAC in addition to GAC alone.

Keywords: isotherm, adsorption equilibrium, GAC, metsulfuron methyl

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Csaba Tóth, Éva Lakatos, László Pethő, Seoyoung Cho

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The temperature effect on asphalt pavement structure is a crucial factor at the design stage. In this paper, by applying the German guidelines for temperature along the asphalt depth is estimated. The aim is to consider temperature profiles in different seasons in numerical modelling. The model is built with an elastic and isotropic solid element with 19 subdivisions of asphalt layers to reflect the temperature variation. Comparison with the simple three-layer pavement system (asphalt layers, base, and subgrade layers) will be followed to see the difference in result without temperature variation along with the depth. Finally, the fatigue life calculation was checked to prove the validity of the methodology of considering the temperature in the numerical modelling.

Keywords: temperature profile, flexible pavement modeling, finite element method, temperature modeling

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Authors: Vojo George Fasinu, Nadaraj Govender, Predeep Kumar

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An Antenna, which remains the hub of technological development in Africa had been found to be a course that is been taught and designed in an abstract manner in some universities. One of the reasons attached to this is that the appropriate approach of teaching antenna design is not yet understood by many engineering academics in some universities in South Africa. Also, another problem reported is the main difficulty encountered when interpreting and applying some of the mathematical concepts learned into their practical antenna design course. As a result of this, some engineering experts classified antenna as a mysterious technology that could not be described by anybody using mathematical concepts. In view of this, this paper takes it as its point of departure in explaining what an antenna is all about with a strong emphasis on its mathematical modelling. It also argues that the place of modelling mathematical concepts into the teaching of engineering design cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, it explains the mathematical concepts adopted during the teaching of an antenna design course, the Strategies of modelling those mathematics concepts, the behavior of antennas, and their mathematics usage were equally discussed. More so, the paper also sheds more light on mathematical modelling in South Africa context, and also comparative analysis of mathematics concepts taught in mathematics class and mathematics concepts taught in engineering courses. This paper focuses on engineering academics teaching selected topics in electronic engineering (Antenna design), with special attention on the mathematical concepts they teach and how they teach them when teaching the course. A qualitative approach was adopted as a means of collecting data in order to report the naturalistic views of the engineering academics teaching Antenna design. The findings of the study confirmed that some mathematical concepts are being modeled into the teaching of an antenna design with the adoption of some teaching approaches. Furthermore, the paper reports a didactical-realistic mathematical model as a conceptual framework used by the researchers in describing how academics teach mathematical concepts during their teaching of antenna design. Finally, the paper concludes with the importance of mathematical modelling to the engineering academics and recommendations for further researchers.

Keywords: modelling, mathematical concepts, engineering, didactical, realistic model

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Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

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In this study, a physically-based, modelling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (KSAT) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modelling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the KSAT field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured KSAT values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of KSAT variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities.

Keywords: saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools

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Authors: B. Salehi, D. Andrews, I. Chaer, A. Gillich, A. Chalk, D. Bush

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With the rapid increase of energy consumption in buildings in recent years, especially with the rise in population and growing economies, the importance of energy savings in buildings becomes more critical. One of the key factors in ensuring energy consumption is controlled and kept at a minimum is to utilise building energy modelling at the very early stages of the design. So, building modelling and simulation is a growing discipline. During the design phase of construction, modelling software can be used to estimate a building’s projected energy consumption, as well as building performance. The growth in the use of building modelling software packages opens the door for improvements in the design and also in the modelling itself by introducing novel methods such as building information modelling-based software packages which promote conventional building energy modelling into the digital building design process. To understand the most effective implementation tools, research projects undertaken should include elements of real-world experiments and not just rely on theoretical and simulated approaches. Upon review of the related studies undertaken, it’s evident that they are mostly based on modelling and simulation, which can be due to various reasons such as the more expensive and time-consuming nature of real-time data-based studies. Taking in to account the recent rise of building energy software modelling packages and the increasing number of studies utilising these methods in their projects and research, the accuracy and reliability of these modelling software packages has become even more crucial and critical. This Energy Performance Gap refers to the discrepancy between the predicted energy savings and the realised actual savings, especially after buildings implement energy-efficient technologies. There are many different software packages available which are either free or have commercial versions. In this study, IES VE (Integrated Environmental Solutions Virtual Environment) is used as it is a common Building Energy Modeling and Simulation software in the UK. This paper describes a study that compares real time results with those in a virtual model to illustrate this gap. The subject of the study is a north west facing north-west (345°) facing, naturally ventilated, conservatory within a domestic building in London is monitored during summer to capture real-time data. Then these results are compared to the virtual results of IES VE, which is a commonly used building energy modelling and simulation software in the UK. In this project, the effect of the wrong position of blinds on overheating is studied as well as providing new evidence of Performance Gap. Furthermore, the challenges of drawing the input of solar shading products in IES VE will be considered.

Keywords: building energy modelling and simulation, integrated environmental solutions virtual environment, IES VE, performance gap, real time data, solar shading products

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

Abstract:

Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Sushil Kumar, M. Dakshina Murty

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Thermal network modelling has proven to be important tool for thermal analysis of electrical machine. This article investigates numerical thermal network model and experimental performance of a large-scale AC motor. Experimental temperatures were measured using RTD in the stator which have been compared with the numerical data. Thermal network modelling fairly predicts the temperature of various components inside the large-scale AC motor. Results of stator winding temperature is compared with experimental results which are in close agreement with accuracy of 6-10%. This method of predicting hot spots within AC motors can be readily used by the motor designers for estimating the thermal hot spots of the machine.

Keywords: AC motor, thermal network, heat transfer, modelling

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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