Search results for: scenario based

Authors: Shih-Ming Wang, Chun-Kai Yeh, Ming-Hwang Shie, Tai-Wei Lin, Chieh-Fu Chang

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This paper introduces a FPGA-based baseband signals generator (BSG) of X-band transmitter developed by National Space Organization (NSPO), Taiwan, for earth observation. In order to gain more flexibility for various applications, a number of modulation schemes, QPSK, DeQPSK and 8PSK 4D-TCM are included. For micro satellite scenario, the maximum symbol rate is up to 150Mbsps, and the EVM is as low as 1.9%. For CubeSat scenario, the maximum symbol rate is up to 60Mbsps, and the EVM is less than 1.7%. The maximum data rates are 412.5Mbps and 165Mbps, respectively. Besides, triple modular redundancy (TMR) scheme is implemented in order to reduce single event effect (SEE) induced by radiation. Finally, the theoretical error performance is provided based on comprehensive analysis, especially when BER is lower and much lower than 10⁻⁶ due to low error bit requirement of modern high-resolution earth remote-sensing instruments.

Keywords: X-band transmitter, FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), CubeSat, micro satellite

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Authors: Chinazo Onyeka Eziuzo

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This work presents the simulation and control of the flywheel system in the rotor of a wind turbine using Simulink and OpenFAST for assessing the effect on the mechanical loads. This concept allows the flywheel system to serve two main tasks: supporting the power system and mitigating the mechanical loads in the wind turbine. These tasks are grouped into four control scenarios; scenario 1 represents steadying the power infeed in the Flywheel, scenario 2 represents steadying power with FW and grid loss, scenario 3 represents mitigating excitations from gravity, and scenario 4 represents damping in-plane blade vibrations. The s-function of the OpenFAST model was used to substitute the given 1st Eigen mode model of the WT. After that, the simulations were run for the above-listed scenarios. Additionally, the effects of the control options on the mechanical loads were assessed, and it was established that the FW system assists in steadying infeed power and mechanical load mitigation.

Keywords: simulation, control, wind turbine, OpenFAST

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Authors: Abul Quasem Al-Amin, Md. Hasanuzzaman, Mohammad Nurul Azam, Walter Leal Filho

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With regard to the future energy strategy and vision, this study aimed to find the drawbacks of proposed energy diversification policy for 2020. To have a clear picture of the drawback and competitive alternative, this study has explored two scenarios, namely Scenario a and Scenario b. The Scenario a indicates that in the year 2020 the GHG emissions would be 823,498.00 million tons (Mt) with a 2020 final demand and proposed fuel mix such as by the Five-Fuel Diversification Strategy. In contrast, as an alternative, the Scenario b with biofuel potentials indicates that the substitution of coal energy by 5%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, with biofuel, would reduce the GHG emissions from 374,551.00, 405,118.00, and 823,498.00 million tons to 339,964.00, 329,834.00, and 305,288.00 million tons, respectively, by the present fuel mix, business-as-usual fuel mix, and proposed fuel mix up to the year 2020. Therefore, this study has explored a healthy alternative by introducing biofuel renewable energy option instead of conventional energy utilization in the power generation with environmental aspect in minds. This study effort would lessen the gap between GHG mitigation and future sustainable development and would useful to formulate effective renewable energy strategy in Malaysia.

Keywords: energy, environmental impacts, renewable energy, biofuel, energy policy

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Authors: Rukminingsih Rukmi

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This paper addresses the issue of L2 teaching speaking to ESL students by fostering their active learning through project-based learning. Project-based learning was employed in classrooms where teachers support students by giving sufficient guidance and feedback. The students drive the inquiry, engage in research and discovery, and collaborate effectively with teammates to deliver the final work product. The teacher provides the initial direction and acts as a facilitator along the way. This learning approach is considered helpful for fostering students’ active learning. that the steps in implementing of project-based learning that fosters students’ critical thinking in TEFL class are in the following: (1) Discussing the materials about Speaking Class, (2) Working with the group to construct scenario of ways on speaking practice, (3) Practicing the scenario, (4) Recording the speaking practice into video, and (5) Evaluating the video product. This research is aimed to develop a strategy of teaching speaking by implementing project-based learning to improve speaking skill in the second Semester of English Department of STKIP PGRI Jombang. To achieve the purpose, the researcher conducted action research. The data of the study were gathered through the following instruments: test, observation checklists, and questionnaires. The result was indicated by the increase of students’ average speaking scores from 65 in the preliminary study, 73 in the first cycle, and 82 in the second cycle. Besides, the results of the study showed that project-based learning considered to be appropriate strategy to give students the same amount of chance in practicing their speaking skill and to pay attention in creating a learning situation.

Keywords: active learning, project-based learning, speaking ability, L2 teaching speaking

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Authors: Robert Jacobsen

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Flood inundation maps (FIMs) are an essential tool in communicating flood threat scenarios to the public as well as in floodplain governance. With an increasing demand for online raster FIMs, the FIM State-of-the-Practice (SOP) is rapidly advancing to meet the dual requirements for high-resolution and high-accuracy—or High-Definition. Importantly, today’s technology also enables the resolution of problems of local—neighborhood-scale—bias errors that often occur in FIMs, even with the use of SOP two-dimensional flood modeling. To facilitate the development of HD-FIMs, a new GIS method--Raster Adjustment with Scenario Profiles, RASPTM—is described for adjusting kernel raster FIMs to match refined scenario profiles. With RASPTM, flood professionals can prepare HD-FIMs for a wide range of scenarios with available kernel rasters, including kernel rasters prepared from vector FIMs. The paper provides detailed procedures for RASPTM, along with an example of applying RASPTM to prepare an HD-FIM for the August 2016 Flood in Louisiana using both an SOP kernel raster and a kernel raster derived from an older vector-based flood insurance rate map. The accuracy of the HD-FIMs achieved with the application of RASPTM to the two kernel rasters is evaluated.

Keywords: hydrology, mapping, high-definition, inundation

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Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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Authors: Jessica Bain, Greg Thoma, Marty Matlock, Jeyam Subbiah, Ebenezer Kwofie

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The environmental impact and particulate matter emissions (PM) associated with the production and packaging of 1 kg of almonds were evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). The assessment began at the point of ready to harvest with a system boundary was a cradle-to-gate assessment of almond packaging in California. The assessment included three scenarios of off-ground harvesting of almonds. The three general off-ground harvesting scenarios with variations include the harvested almonds solar dried on a paper tarp in the orchard, the harvested almonds solar dried on the floor in a separate lot, and the harvested almonds dried mechanically. The life cycle inventory (LCI) data for almond production were based on previously published literature and data provided by Almond Board of California (ABC). The ReCiPe 2016 method was used to calculate the midpoint impacts. Using consequential LCA model, the global warming potential (GWP) for the three harvesting scenarios are 2.90, 2.86, and 3.09 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond for scenarios 1, 2a, and 3a, respectively. The global warming potential for conventional harvesting method was 2.89 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond. The particulate matter emissions for each scenario per hectare for each off-ground harvesting scenario is 77.14, 9.56, 66.86, and 8.75 for conventional harvesting and scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The most significant contributions to the overall emissions were from almond production. The farm gate almond production had a global warming potential of 2.12 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond, approximately 73% of the overall emissions. Based on comparisons between the GWP and PM emissions, scenario 2a was the best tradeoff between GHG and PM production.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, low moisture foods, sustainability, LCA

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Authors: Umut Tac, Leyla Tavacioglu, Pelin Bolat

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Human factor has been one of the elements that cause vulnerabilities which can be resulted with accidents in maritime transportation. When the roots of human factor based accidents are analyzed, gaps in performing cognitive abilities (reaction time, attention, memory…) are faced as the main reasons for the vulnerabilities in complex environment of maritime systems. Thus cognitive processes in maritime systems have arisen important subject that should be investigated comprehensively. At this point, neurocognitive tests such as reaction time analysis tests have been used as coherent tools that enable us to make valid assessments for cognitive status. In this respect, the aim of this study is to evaluate the reaction time (response time or latency) of seafarers due to their occupational experience and age. For this study, reaction time for different maneuverers has been taken while the participants were performing a sea voyage through a simulator which was run up with a certain scenario. After collecting the data for reaction time, a statistical analyze has been done to understand the relation between occupational experience and cognitive abilities.

Keywords: cognitive abilities, human factor, neurocognitive test battery, reaction time

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Authors: Jade V. Rushby, Tony Loughland, Tracy L. Durksen, Hoa Nguyen, Robert M. Klassen

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This paper reports a study investigating the development and implementation of an online multi-session ‘scenario-based learning’ (SBL) program administered to preservice teachers in Australia. The transition from initial teacher education to the teaching profession can present numerous cognitive and psychological challenges for early career teachers. Therefore, the identification of additional supports, such as scenario-based learning, that can supplement existing teacher education programs may help preservice teachers to feel more confident and prepared for the realities and complexities of teaching. Scenario-based learning is grounded in situated learning theory which holds that learning is most powerful when it is embedded within its authentic context. SBL exposes participants to complex and realistic workplace situations in a supportive environment and has been used extensively to help prepare students in other professions, such as legal and medical education. However, comparatively limited attention has been paid to investigating the effects of SBL in teacher education. In the present study, the SBL intervention provided participants with the opportunity to virtually engage with school-based scenarios, reflect on how they might respond to a series of plausible response options, and receive real-time feedback from experienced educators. The development process involved several stages, including collaboration with experienced educators to determine the scenario content based on ‘critical incidents’ they had encountered during their teaching careers, the establishment of the scoring key, the development of the expert feedback, and an extensive review process to refine the program content. The 4-part SBL program focused on areas that can be challenging in the beginning stages of a teaching career, including managing student behaviour and workload, differentiating the curriculum, and building relationships with colleagues, parents, and the community. Results from prior studies implemented by the research group using a similar 4-part format have shown a statistically significant increase in preservice teachers’ self-efficacy and classroom readiness from the pre-test to the final post-test. In the current research, professional teaching identity - incorporating self-efficacy, motivation, self-image, satisfaction, and commitment to teaching - was measured over six weeks at multiple time points: before, during, and after the 4-part scenario-based learning program. Analyses included latent growth curve modelling to assess the trajectory of change in the outcome variables throughout the intervention. The paper outlines (1) the theoretical underpinnings of SBL, (2) the development of the SBL program and methodology, and (3) the results from the study, including the impact of the SBL program on aspects of participating preservice teachers’ professional identity. The study shows how SBL interventions can be implemented alongside the initial teacher education curriculum to help prepare preservice teachers for the transition from student to teacher.

Keywords: classroom simulations, e-learning, initial teacher education, preservice teachers, professional learning, professional teaching identity, scenario-based learning, teacher development

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Authors: Elizabeta Eduard Baltadzhyan

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This work presents a stage of an investigation about the metaphorical conceptualization of translation in Bulgarian language. The material is a linguistic corpus consisting of 38 interviews with several generations Bulgarian translators and interpreters. The aim of this presentation is to inform about the results of the organization of the source concepts in scenarios that dominate the discursive manifestations of the source domains. The data show that, on the one hand, translators from different generations share some basic assignments of source and target domains, e. g. translation is a journey or translation is an artistic presentation. On the other hand, there are some specific scenarios motivated by significant changes in the socio-economic structure of the country and the valuation of the translator´s mission and work, e. g., the scenario of pleasure and addictive activity marks the generation that enjoy great support and stimulation from the socialist government, whereas the war scenario marks the generation during the Perestroika time.

Keywords: Bulgarian language, metaphor, scenario, translation

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Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C₃ and C₄ content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Petra Gergelova, Sofia Ioannidou, Davide Arcella, Alexandra Tard, Polly E. Boon, Oliver Lindtner, Christina Tlustos, Jean-Charles Leblanc

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Objectives: To assess chronic dietary exposure to food additives in different European countries and population groups. Method and Design: The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) estimates chronic dietary exposure to food additives with the purpose of re-evaluating food additives that were previously authorized in Europe. For this, EFSA uses concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) reported through regular public calls for data by food industry and European countries. These are combined, at individual level, with national food consumption data from the EFSA Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database including data from 33 dietary surveys from 19 European countries and considering six different population groups (infants, toddlers, children, adolescents, adults and the elderly). EFSA ANS Panel estimates dietary exposure for each individual in the EFSA Comprehensive Database by combining the occurrence levels per food group with their corresponding consumption amount per kg body weight. An individual average exposure per day is calculated, resulting in distributions of individual exposures per survey and population group. Based on these distributions, the average and 95th percentile of exposure is calculated per survey and per population group. Dietary exposure is assessed based on two different sets of data: (a) Maximum permitted levels (MPLs) of use set down in the EU legislation (defined as regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario) and (b) usage levels and/or analytical occurrence data (defined as refined exposure assessment scenario). The refined exposure assessment scenario is sub-divided into the brand-loyal consumer scenario and the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario. For the brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the highest reported usage/analytical level for one food group, and at the mean level for the remaining food groups. For the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the mean reported usage/analytical level for all food groups. An additional exposure from sources other than direct addition of food additives (i.e. natural presence, contaminants, and carriers of food additives) is also estimated, as appropriate. Results: Since 2014, this methodology has been applied in about 30 food additive exposure assessments conducted as part of scientific opinions of the EFSA ANS Panel. For example, under the non-brand-loyal scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 5.9 and 8.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. The same estimates under the brand-loyal scenario in toddlers resulted in exposures of 8.1 and 20.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. For the regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 11.9 and 30.3 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. Conclusions: Detailed and up-to-date information on food additive concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) and food consumption data enable the assessment of chronic dietary exposure to food additives to more realistic levels.

Keywords: α-tocopherol, ammonium phosphatides, dietary exposure assessment, European Food Safety Authority, food additives, food consumption data

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Authors: Wen Huei Chou, Yi-Ting Chen

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Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) often struggle with social interactions and communication. It is challenging for them to understand social cues such as facial expressions, body language, and tone of voice in social settings, leading to social conflicts and misunderstandings. Over time, feelings of frustration and anxiety can make them reluctant to engage in social situations and worsen their communication barriers. This study focused on children with autism who also experience social anxiety. Through focus group interviews with parents of children with autism and occupational therapists, it explores the reasons and scenarios behind the development of social anxiety in these children. Social scenario stories and interactive applications tailored for children with autism were designed and developed. In addition, working with the educational robots, coping strategies for various emotional situations were elaborated on, and children were helped to understand their emotions.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, social anxiety, robot, social scenario story, interactive applications

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Authors: Jaehyung Jung, Kiman Kim, Heesang Eum

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Solar cell is one of the main technologies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG). Thereby, accurate estimation of greenhouse gas reduction by solar cell technology is crucial to consider strategic applications of the solar cell. The bottom-up approach using operating data such as operation time and efficiency is one of the methodologies to improve the accuracy of the estimation. In this study, alternative GHG reductions from solar cell technology were estimated by a bottom-up approach to indirect emission source (scope 2) in Korea, 2015. In addition, the scenario-based analysis was conducted to assess the effect of technological change with respect to efficiency improvement and rate of operation. In order to estimate GHG reductions from solar cell activities in operating condition levels, methodologies were derived from 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and guidelines for local government greenhouse inventories published in Korea, 2016. Indirect emission factors for electricity were obtained from Korea Power Exchange (KPX) in 2011. As a result, the annual alternative GHG reductions were estimated as 21,504 tonCO2eq, and the annual average value was 1,536 tonCO2eq per each solar cell technology. Those results of estimation showed to be 91% levels versus design of capacity. Estimation of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs) showed that the largest gas was carbon dioxide (CO2), of which up to 99% of the total individual greenhouse gases. The annual average GHG reductions from solar cell per year and unit installed capacity (MW) were estimated as 556 tonCO2eq/yr•MW. Scenario analysis of efficiency improvement by 5%, 10%, 15% increased as much as approximately 30, 61, 91%, respectively, and rate of operation as 100% increased 4% of the annual GHG reductions.

Keywords: bottom-up approach, greenhouse gas (GHG), reduction, scenario, solar cell

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Amirah Azzeri, Fatiha H. Shabaruddin, Scott A. McDonald, Rosmawati Mohamed, Maznah Dahlui

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Objective: A scaled-up treatment cascade with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is necessary to achieve global WHO targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Malaysia. Recently, limited access to Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir (SOF/DAC) is available through compulsory licensing, with future access to Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) expected through voluntary licensing due to recent agreements. SOF/VEL has superior clinical outcomes, particularly for cirrhotic stages, but has higher drug acquisition costs compared to SOF/DAC. It has been proposed that a stratified treatment cascade might be the most cost-efficient approach for Malaysia whereby all HCV patients are treated with SOF/DAC except for patients with cirrhosis who are treated with SOF/VEL. This study aimed to conduct a five-year budget impact analysis from the provider perspective of the proposed stratified treatment cascade for HCV treatment in Malaysia. Method: A disease progression model that was developed based on model-predicted HCV epidemiology data in Malaysia was used for the analysis, where all HCV patients in scenario A were treated with SOF/DAC for all disease stages while in scenario B, SOF/DAC was used only for non-cirrhotic patients and SOF/VEL was used for the cirrhotic patients. The model projections estimated the annual numbers of patients in care and the numbers of patients to be initiated on DAA treatment nationally. Healthcare costs associated with DAA therapy and disease stage monitoring was included to estimate the downstream cost implications. For scenario B, the estimated treatment uptake of SOF/VEL for cirrhotic patients were 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% and 100% for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Healthcare costs were estimated based on standard clinical pathways for DAA treatment described in recent guidelines. All costs were reported in US dollars (conversion rate US$1=RM4.09, the price year 2018). Scenario analysis was conducted for 5% and 10% reduction of SOF/VEL acquisition cost anticipated from the competitive market pricing of generic DAA in Malaysia. Results: The stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL in Scenario B was found to be cost-saving compared to Scenario A. A substantial portion of the cost reduction was due to the costs associated with DAA therapy which resulted in USD 40 thousand (year 1) to USD 443 thousand (year 5) savings annually, with cumulative savings of USD 1.1 million after 5 years. Cost reductions for disease stage monitoring were seen in year three onwards which resulted in cumulative savings of USD 1.1 thousand. Scenario analysis estimated cumulative savings of USD 1.24 to USD 1.35 million when the acquisition cost of SOF/VEL was reduced. Conclusion: A stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL was expected to be cost-saving and can results in a budget impact reduction in overall healthcare expenditure in Malaysia compared to treatment with SOF/DAC. The better clinical efficacy with SOF/VEL is expected to halt patients’ HCV disease progression and may reduce downstream costs of treating advanced disease stages. The findings of this analysis may be useful to inform healthcare policies for HCV treatment in Malaysia.

Keywords: Malaysia, direct acting antiviral, compulsory licensing, voluntary licensing

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Authors: Robel Habtemariam

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Globally, wind energy and photovoltaics (PV) solar energy are among the leading renewable energy sources (RES) in terms of installed capacity. In order to increase the contribution of RES to the power supply system, large scale energy integration is required, mainly due to wind energy and PV. In this paper, an investigation has been made on the electrical power supply systems of Taiwan and Greece in order to integrate high level of wind and photovoltaic (PV) to increase the penetration of renewable energy resources. Currently, both countries heavily depend on fossil fuels to meet the demand and to generate adequate electricity. Therefore, this study is carried out to look into the two cases power supply system by developing a methodology that includes major power units. To address the analysis, an approach for simulation of power systems is formulated and applied. The simulation is based on the non-dynamic analysis of the electrical system. This simulation results in calculating the energy contribution of different types of power units; namely the wind, PV, non-flexible and flexible power units. The calculation is done for three different scenarios (2020, 2030, & 2050), where the first two scenarios are based on national targets and scenario 2050 is a reflection of ambitious global targets. By 2030 in Taiwan, the input of the power units is evaluated as 4.3% (wind), 3.7% (PV), 65.2 (non-flexible), 25.3% (flexible), and 1.5% belongs to hydropower plants. In Greece, much higher renewable energy contribution is observed for the same scenario with 21.7% (wind), 14.3% (PV), 38.7% (non-flexible), 14.9% (flexible), and 10.3% (hydro). Moreover, it examines the ability of the power systems to deal with the variable nature of the wind and PV generation. For this reason, an investigation has also been done on the use of the combined wind power with pumped storage systems (WPS) to enable the system to exploit the curtailed wind energy & surplus PV and thus increase the wind and PV installed capacity and replace the peak supply by conventional power units. Results show that the feasibility of pumped storage can be justified in the high scenario (that is the scenario of 2050) of RES integration especially in the case of Greece.

Keywords: large scale energy integration, photovoltaics solar energy, pumped storage systems, renewable energy sources

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Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

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Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

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Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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Authors: Sandra Rafael, Bruno Vicente, Vera Rodrigues, Carlos Borrego, Myriam Lopes

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Air pollution is an environmental and social issue at different spatial scales, especially in a climate change context, with an expected decrease of air quality. Air pollution is a combination of high emissions and unfavourable weather conditions, where wind speed and wind direction play a key role. The urban design (location and structure of buildings and trees) can both promote the air pollutants dispersion as well as promote their retention within the urban area. Today, most of the urban areas are applying measures to adapt to future extreme climatic events. Most of these measures are grounded on nature-based solutions, namely green roofs and green areas. In this sense, studies are required to evaluate how the implementation of these actions will influence the wind flow within the urban area and, consequently, how this will influence air pollutants' dispersion. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of a set of urban morphologies in the wind conditions and in the dispersion of air pollutants, in a built-up area in Portugal. For that, two pollutants were analysed (NOx and PM10) and four scenarios were developed: i) a baseline scenario, which characterizes the current status of the study area, ii) an urban green scenario, which implies the implementation of a green area inside the domain, iii) a green roof scenario, which consists in the implementation of green roofs in a specific area of the domain; iv) a 'grey' scenario, which consists in a scenario with absence of vegetation. For that, two models were used, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the CFD model VADIS (pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere under variable wind conditions). The WRF model was used to initialize the CFD model, while the last was used to perform the set of numerical simulations, on an hourly basis. The implementation of the green urban area promoted a reduction of air pollutants' concentrations, 16% on average, related to the increase in the wind flow, which promotes air pollutants dispersion; while the application of green roofs showed an increase of concentrations (reaching 60% during specific time periods). Overall the results showed that a strategic placement of vegetation in cities has the potential to make an important contribution to increase air pollutants dispersion and so promote the improvement of air quality and sustainability of urban environments.

Keywords: air pollutants dispersion, wind conditions, urban morphologies, road traffic emissions

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Liu, Ye Li, Tian Xia

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Taxi-calling APPs have been used widely, while brought both benefits and a variety of issues for the taxi market. Many countries do not know whether the benefits are remarkable than the issues or not. This paper established a comparison between the basic scenario (2009-2012) and a taxi-calling software usage scenario (2012-2015) to explain the impact of taxi-calling APPs. The impacts of taxi-calling APPs illustrated by the comparison results are: 1) The supply and demand distribution is more balanced, extending from the city center to the suburb. The availability of taxi service has been improved in low density areas, thin market attribute has also been improved; 2)The ratio of short distance taxi trip decreased, long distance service increased, the utilization of mileage increased, and the rate of empty decreased; 3) The popularity of taxi-calling APPs was able to reduce the average empty distance, cruise time, empty mileage rate and average times of loading passengers, can also enhance the average operating speed, improve the taxi operating level, and reduce social cost although there are some disadvantages. This paper argues that the taxi industry and government can establish an integrated third-party credit information platform based on credit evaluated by the data of the drivers’ driving behaviors to supervise the drivers. Taxi-calling APPs under fully covered supervision in the mobile Internet environment will become a new trend.

Keywords: taxi, taxi-calling APPs, credit, scenario comparison

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Authors: Niloofar Mobasem, Kambiz Heidarzadeh Hanzaee

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Purpose: The study aimed to measure the customer satisfaction with service recovery through the conflict management framework, especially assessing the role of pre-existing attitudes for measuring the customer response to the service failure. Design/ methodology/ approach: The study is based on the experimental research method. The factorial designs are used in the research that measures the variables in two separate studies. In the first study, the factorial design is 3 conflict management style: cooperative, competitive, avoiding; - 3 service performance: exceed expectation, meet expectation, fail to meet expectation; and in the second study includes: - 3 conflict management style: cooperative, competitive, avoiding; - 2 service performance: exceed expectation, fail to meet expectation; - 2 pre-existing attitude: positive, negative. Finding: The results of study based on a scenario indicate that the conflict management style affected on customer satisfaction by service recovery efforts as well as the pre-existing attitudes affected the customer interpretation for service providers (conflict management style) and those who have positive pre-existing attitudes are interested to response to the cooperative approach in dealing with service failure. Research limitation/ implication: According to all researches, the study has several limitations. The nature of scenario in this study may cause to hit the reality of life. Although, the similar scenario approaches commonly are used for such researches, but the approaches are not without criticism. Practical implications: Given the importance of service recovery, companies can understand the importance of creating customer satisfaction achieved by the positive results due to the service recovery during the shortness or service failure by the mentioned companies. Originality/ value: The study highlights the importance of service failure and providing the education in relation to the service recovery.

Keywords: service recovery, pre-existing attitude, service failure, customer satisfaction

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Authors: P. Agnivesh, P. V. Ponambala Moorthi

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Evolution of information modelling leads to the visualisation of well-organized built environment. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is considered as evolution in the off-site construction which essentially enhances and controls the present scenario of on-site construction paradigms. Promptness, sustainability and security are considered as the important characteristics of the building information modelling. Projects that uses BIM are tied firmly by technology but distributed organizationally. This allows different team members in the project to associate and integrate the works and work flows. This will in turn improve the efficiency of work breakdown structure. Internationally BIM had been accepted as modern computer aided way of information sharing by construction industry for efficient way of manipulation in order to avoid the on-site misperceptions. Even though, in developing countries like India BIM is in the phase of start and requires lot of mandates and policies to be brought about by the government for its widespread implementations. This paper reviews the current scenario of BIM worldwide and in India and suggests for the improved implementation of building modelling for Indian policy condition.

Keywords: building information modelling, Indian polity, information modelling, information sharing, mandates and policies, sustainability.

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Authors: Fatemehsadat Mortazavizadeh, Amin Dehghani, Majid Mirzaei, Nurulhuda Binti Mohammad Ramli, Adnan Dehghani

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Flood is Malaysia's most common and serious natural disaster. Kelantan River Basin is a tropical basin that experiences a rainy season during North-East Monsoon from November to March. It is also one of the hardest hit areas in Peninsular Malaysia during the heavy monsoon rainfall. Considering the consequences of the flood events, it is essential to develop the flood inundation map as part of the mitigation approach. In this study, the delineation of flood inundation zone in the area of Kelantan River basin using a hydrodynamic model is done by HEC-RAS, QGIS and ArcMap. The streamflow data has been generated with the weather generator based on the observation data. Then, the data is statistically analyzed with the Extreme Value (EV1) method for 2-, 5-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The minimum depth, maximum depth, mean depth, and the standard deviation of all the scenarios, including the OBS, are observed and analyzed. Based on the results, generally, the value of the data increases with the return period for all the scenarios. However, there are certain scenarios that have different results, which not all the data obtained are increasing with the return period. Besides, OBS data resulted in the middle range within Scenario 1 to Scenario 40.

Keywords: flood inundation, kelantan river basin, hydrodynamic model, extreme value analysis

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Authors: Cihat Aşan

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Istanbul Strait is a crucial and narrow waterway, not only having a role in linking two continents but also has a crossover mission for the petroleum, which is the biggest energy resource, between its supply and demand sources. Besides its substantial features, sensitivities like around 18 million populations in surroundings, military facilities, ports, oil lay down areas etc. also brings the high risk to use of Istanbul Strait. Based on the statistics of Turkish Ministry of Transportation, Maritime and Communication, although the number of vessel passage in Istanbul Strait is declining, tonnage of hazardous and flammable cargo like oil and chemical transportation is increasing and subsequently the risk of oil pollution, loss of life and property is also rising. Based on the mentioned above; it is crucial to be prepared for the initial and subsequent response to eventual ship sourced oil spill which may cause to block the Strait for an unbearable duration. In this study; preconditioned Istanbul Strait sensitive areas studies has been taken into account and possible oil spill scenario is loaded to PISCES 2 (Potential Incident Simulation Control and Evaluation System) decision support system for the determined specific sea area. Consequences of the simulation like oil expanding process, required number and types of assets to response, had in hand and evaluated.

Keywords: Istanbul strait, oil spill, PISCES simulator, initial response

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Authors: Yehuda Roth

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In quantum theory, a system’s time evolution is predictable unless an observer performs measurement, as the measurement process can randomize the system. This randomness appears when the measuring device does not accurately describe the measured item, i.e., when the states characterizing the measuring device appear as a superposition of those being measured. When such a mismatch occurs, the measured data randomly collapse into a single eigenstate of the measuring device. This scenario resembles the interpretation process in which the observer does not experience an objective reality but interprets it based on preliminary descriptions initially ingrained into his/her mind. This distinction is the motivation for the present study in which the collapse scenario is regarded as part of the interpretation process of the observer. By adopting the formalism of the quantum theory, we present a complete mathematical approach that describes the interpretation process. We demonstrate this process by applying the proposed interpretation formalism to the ambiguous image "My wife and mother-in-law" to identify whether a woman in the picture is young or old.

Keywords: quantum-like interpretation, ambiguous image, determination, quantum-like collapse, classified representation

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Authors: Emna Bahri Hammami, Zammouri Mounira, Tarhouni Jamila

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The Nadhour Saouaf Sisseb El Alem (NSSA) system comprises some of the most intensively exploited aquifers in central Tunisia. Since the 1970s, the growth in economic productivity linked to intensive agriculture in this semiarid region has been sustained by increasing pumping rates of the system’s groundwater. Exploitation of these aquifers has increased rapidly, ultimately causing their depletion. With the aim to better understand the behavior of the aquifer system and to predict its evolution, the paper presents a finite difference model of the groundwater flow and solute transport. The model is based on the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) and was calibrated using data from 1970 to 2010. Groundwater levels observed in 1970 were used for the steady-state calibration. Groundwater levels observed from 1971 to 2010 served to calibrate the transient state. The impact of pumping discharge on the evolution of groundwater levels was studied through three hypothetical pumping scenarios. The first two scenarios replicated the approximate drawdown in the aquifer heads (about 17 m in scenario 1 and 23 m in scenario 2 in the center of NSSA) following an increase in pumping rates by 30% and 50% from their current values, respectively. In addition, pumping was stopped in the third scenario, which could increase groundwater reserves by about 7 Mm3/year. NSSA groundwater reserves could be improved considerably if the pumping rules were taken seriously.

Keywords: pumping, depletion, groundwater modeling system GMS, Nadhour Saouaf

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Authors: Ada Garus

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This paper presents the outcomes of the sustainability assessment of food delivery with a last-mile delivery service introduced in a real-world case study. The methodology used in the sustainability assessment integrates multi-criteria decision-making analysis, sustainability pillars, and scenario analysis to best reflect the conflicting needs of stakeholders involved in the last mile delivery system. The case study provides an application of the framework to the food delivery system of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission where three alternative solutions were analyzed I) the existent state in which individuals frequent the local cantine or pick up their food, using their preferred mode of transport II) the hypothetical scenario in which individuals can only order their food using the delivery droid system III) a scenario in which the food delivery droid based system is introduced as a supplement to the current system. The environmental indices are calculated using a simulation study in which decision regarding the food delivery is predicted using a multinomial logit model. The vehicle dynamics model is used to predict the fuel consumption of the regular combustion engines vehicles used by the cantine goers and the electricity consumption of the droid. The sustainability assessment allows for the evaluation of the economic, environmental, and social aspects of food delivery, making it an apt input for policymakers. Moreover, the assessment is one of the first studies to investigate automated delivery droids, which could become a frequent addition to the urban landscape in the near future.

Keywords: innovations in transportation technologies, behavioural change and mobility, urban freight logistics, innovative transportation systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Nathan Reeves

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Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate if there was an impact on student learning when peer role play was substituted for a professional actor in the role of simulated patient in a simulation-based scenario. Method: Third-year exercise science students enrolled in a field project course in 2015 (n=24), and 2016 (n=20) participated in a simulation-based case scenario designed to develop their client-centred exercise prescription skills. During the simulation, students were provided with feedback from the simulated patients. In 2015, three professional actors played the part of the simulated patient, and in 2016 one of the simulated patients was a student from another exercise science cohort (peer role play). The student learning experience, consistency in case fidelity and feedback provided by the simulated patients was evaluated using a 5-point Likert scale survey and collecting phenomenological data. Results: Improvements to student pre and post confidence remained constant between the 2015 and 2016 cohorts (1.04 and 0.85). The perceived usefulness and enjoyability also remained high across the two cohorts (4.96 and 4.71). The feedback provided by all three simulated patients in 2016 was seen to strongly support student learning experience (4.82), and was of a consistent level (4.47). Significance of the findings to allied health: Simulation-based education is rapidly expanding in the curricula across the allied health professions. The simulated patient methodology continues to receive support as a pedagogy to develop a range of clinical skills including communication, engagement and client-centeredness. Upskilling students to peer role play can be a reasonable alternative to engaging paid actors.

Keywords: exercise science, simulation-based learning, simulated patient, peer role play

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Authors: Ioana Dallinger, Vincent P. Magnini

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Due to the many moving parts and high human component, mistakes and failures sometimes occur during transactions in service environments. Because a certain portion of such failures is unavoidable, many service providers constantly look for guidance regarding optimal ways by which they should manage failures and recoveries. Through the use of a scenario-based experiment, the findings of this study run counter to the empowerment approach (i.e. that frontline employees should be empowered to resolve failure situations on their own doing). Specifically, this study finds that customers’ perceptions of distributive, procedural, and interactional justice are significantly higher [p-values < .05] when a manager delivers an apology as opposed to the frontline provider. Moreover, customers’ satisfaction with the recovery and commitment to the firm are also significantly stronger [p-values < .05] when a manager apologizes. Interestingly, this study also empirically tests the effects of combined apologies of both the manager and employee and finds that the combined approach yields better results for customers’ interactional justice perceptions and for their satisfaction with recovery, but not for their distributive or procedural justice perceptions or consequent commitment to the firm. This study can serve a springboard for further research. For example, perceptions and attitudes regarding employee empowerment vary based upon country culture. Furthermore, there are likely a number of factors that can moderate the cause and effect relationship between a failure recovery and customers’ post-recovery perceptions [e.g. the severity of the failure].

Keywords: apology, empowerment, service failure recovery, service recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 273