Search results for: overcast weather
762 The Impact of Heat Waves on Human Health: State of Art in Italy
Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio
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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather
Procedia PDF Downloads 241761 The Effect of Annual Weather and Sowing Date on Different Genotype of Maize (Zea mays L.) in Germination and Yield
Authors: Ákos Tótin
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In crop production the most modern hybrids are available for us, therefore the yield and yield stability is determined by the agro-technology. The purpose of the experiment is to adapt the modern agrotechnology to the new type of hybrids. The long-term experiment was set up in 2015-2016 on chernozem soil in the Hajdúság (eastern Hungary). The plots were set up in 75 thousand ha-1 plant density. We examined some mainly use hybrids of Hungary. The conducted studies are: germination dynamic, growing dynamic and the effect of annual weather for the yield. We use three different sowing date as early, average and late, and measure how many plant germinated during the germination process. In the experiment, we observed the germination dynamics in 6 hybrid in 4 replication. In each replication, we counted the germinated plants in 2m long 2 row wide area. Data will be shown in the average of the 6 hybrid and 4 replication. Growing dynamics were measured from the 10cm (4-6 leaf) plant highness. We measured 10 plants’ height in two weeks replication. The yield was measured buy a special plot harvester - the Sampo Rosenlew 2010 – what measured the weight of the harvested plot and also took a sample from it. We determined the water content of the samples for the water release dynamics. After it, we calculated the yield (t/ha) of each plot at 14% of moisture content to compare them. We evaluated the data using Microsoft Excel 2015. The annual weather in each crop year define the maize germination dynamics because the amount of heat is determinative for the plants. In cooler crop year the weather is prolonged the germination. At the 2015 crop year the weather was cold in the beginning what prolonged the first sowing germination. But the second and third sowing germinated faster. In the 2016 crop year the weather was much favorable for plants so the first sowing germinated faster than in the previous year. After it the weather cooled down, therefore the second and third sowing germinated slower than the last year. The statistical data analysis program determined that there is a significant difference between the early and late sowing date growing dynamics. In 2015 the first sowing date had the highest amount of yield. The second biggest yield was in the average sowing time. The late sowing date has lowest amount of yield.Keywords: germination, maize, sowing date, yield
Procedia PDF Downloads 225760 Application of Forward Contract and Crop Insurance as Risk Management Tools of Agriculture: A Case Study in Bangladesh
Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid
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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model
Procedia PDF Downloads 151759 The Storm in Us All: An Etymological Study of Tempest
Authors: David N. Prihoda
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This paper charts the history of the English word Tempest from its origins in Proto-Indo European to its modern usage as a term for storms, both literal and metaphorical. It does so by way of considering the word’s morphology, semiotics, and phonetics. It references numerous language studies and dictionaries to chronicle the word’s many steps along that path, from demarcation of measurement to assessment of time, all the way to an observation about the weather or the human psyche. The conclusive findings show that tempest has undergone numerous changes throughout its history, and these changes interestingly parallel its connotations as a symbol for both chaotic weather and the chaos of the human spiritKeywords: Tempest, etymology, language origins, English
Procedia PDF Downloads 107758 Analysis of Weather Radar Data for the Cloud Seeding in Korea, 2018
Authors: Yonghun Ro, Joo-Wan Cha, Sanghee Chae, Areum Ko, Woonseon Jung, Jong-Chul Ha
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National Institute of Meteorological Science (NIMS) in South Korea has performed the cloud seeding to support the field of cloud physics. This is to determine the precipitation occurrence analyzing the changes in the microphysical schemes of clouds. NIMS conducted 12 times of cloud seeding in the lower height of the troposphere at Kangwon and Kyunggi provinces throughout 2018. The change in the reflectivity of the weather radar was analyzed to verify the enhancement of precipitation according to the cloud seeding in this study. First, the natural system in the near of the target area was separated to clear the seeding effect. The radar reflectivity in the point of ground gauge station was extracted in every 10 minutes and the increased values during the reaction time of cloud particles and seeding materials were estimated as a seeding effect considering the cloud temperature, wind speed and direction, and seeding line that the aircraft had passed by. The radar reflectivity affected by seeding materials was showed an increment of 5 to 10 dBZ, and enhanced precipitation cloud was also detected in the 11 cases of cloud seeding experiments.Keywords: cloud seeding, reflectivity, weather radar, seeding effect
Procedia PDF Downloads 163757 Predicting Photovoltaic Energy Profile of Birzeit University Campus Based on Weather Forecast
Authors: Muhammad Abu-Khaizaran, Ahmad Faza’, Tariq Othman, Yahia Yousef
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This paper presents a study to provide sufficient and reliable information about constructing a Photovoltaic energy profile of the Birzeit University campus (BZU) based on the weather forecast. The developed Photovoltaic energy profile helps to predict the energy yield of the Photovoltaic systems based on the weather forecast and hence helps planning energy production and consumption. Two models will be developed in this paper; a Clear Sky Irradiance model and a Cloud-Cover Radiation model to predict the irradiance for a clear sky day and a cloudy day, respectively. The adopted procedure for developing such models takes into consideration two levels of abstraction. First, irradiance and weather data were acquired by a sensory (measurement) system installed on the rooftop of the Information Technology College building at Birzeit University campus. Second, power readings of a fully operational 51kW commercial Photovoltaic system installed in the University at the rooftop of the adjacent College of Pharmacy-Nursing and Health Professions building are used to validate the output of a simulation model and to help refine its structure. Based on a comparison between a mathematical model, which calculates Clear Sky Irradiance for the University location and two sets of accumulated measured data, it is found that the simulation system offers an accurate resemblance to the installed PV power station on clear sky days. However, these comparisons show a divergence between the expected energy yield and actual energy yield in extreme weather conditions, including clouding and soiling effects. Therefore, a more accurate prediction model for irradiance that takes into consideration weather factors, such as relative humidity and cloudiness, which affect irradiance, was developed; Cloud-Cover Radiation Model (CRM). The equivalent mathematical formulas implement corrections to provide more accurate inputs to the simulation system. The results of the CRM show a very good match with the actual measured irradiance during a cloudy day. The developed Photovoltaic profile helps in predicting the output energy yield of the Photovoltaic system installed at the University campus based on the predicted weather conditions. The simulation and practical results for both models are in a very good match.Keywords: clear-sky irradiance model, cloud-cover radiation model, photovoltaic, weather forecast
Procedia PDF Downloads 124756 Contributions of Natural and Human Activities to Urban Surface Runoff with Different Hydrological Scenarios (Orléans, France)
Authors: Al-Juhaishi Mohammed, Mikael Motelica-Heino, Fabrice Muller, Audrey Guirimand-Dufour, Christian Défarge
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This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarii (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months.Each investigated (Ormes and l’Egoutier) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP).The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 µS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 µS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 µS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 210 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 75 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.Keywords: BOD, COD, the Loire River, urban hydrology, urban dry and wet weather discharges, macronutrients
Procedia PDF Downloads 262755 Effectiveness of Weather Index Insurance for Smallholders in Ethiopia
Authors: Federica Di Marcantonio, Antoine Leblois, Wolfgang Göbel, Hervè Kerdiles
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Weather-related shocks can threaten the ability of farmers to maintain their agricultural output and food security levels. Informal coping mechanisms (i.e. migration or community risk sharing) have always played a significant role in mitigating the negative effects of weather-related shocks in Ethiopia, but they have been found to be an incomplete strategy, particularly as a response to covariate shocks. Particularly, as an alternative to the traditional risk pooling products, an innovative form of insurance known as Index-based Insurance has received a lot of attention from researchers and international organizations, leading to an increased number of pilot initiatives in many countries. Despite the potential benefit of the product in protecting the livelihoods of farmers and pastoralists against climate shocks, to date there has been an unexpectedly low uptake. Using information from current pilot projects on index-based insurance in Ethiopia, this paper discusses the determinants of uptake that have so far undermined the scaling-up of the products, by focusing in particular on weather data availability, price affordability and willingness to pay. We found that, aside from data constraint issues, high price elasticity and low willingness to pay represent impediments to the development of the market. These results, bring us to rethink the role of index insurance as products for enhancing smallholders’ response to covariate shocks, and particularly for improving their food security.Keywords: index-based insurance, willingness to pay, satellite information, Ethiopia
Procedia PDF Downloads 396754 Improved Soil and Snow Treatment with the Rapid Update Cycle Land-Surface Model for Regional and Global Weather Predictions
Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin
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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes
Procedia PDF Downloads 81753 Lessons from Nature: Defensive Designs for the Built Environment
Authors: Rebecca A. Deek
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There is evidence that erratic and extreme weather is becoming a common occurrence, and even predictions that this will become even more frequent and more severe. It also appears that the severity of earthquakes is intensifying. Some observers believe that human conduct has given reasons for such change; others attribute this to environmental and geological cycles. However, as some physicists, environmental scientists, politicians, and others continue to debate the connection between weather events, seismic activities, and climate change, other scientists, engineers, and urban planners are exploring how can our habitat become more responsive and resilient to such phenomena. There are a number of recent instances of nature’s destructive events that provide basis for the development of defensive measures.Keywords: biomimicry, natural disasters, protection of human lives, resilient infrastructures
Procedia PDF Downloads 498752 The Impact of Vertical Velocity Parameter Conditions and Its Relationship with Weather Parameters in the Hail Event
Authors: Nadine Ayasha
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Hail happened in Sukabumi (August 23, 2020), Sekadau (August 22, 2020), and Bogor (September 23, 2020), where this extreme weather phenomenon occurred in the dry season. This study uses the ERA5 reanalysis model data, it aims to examine the vertical velocity impact on the hail occurrence in the dry season, as well as its relation to other weather parameters such as relative humidity, streamline, and wind velocity. Moreover, HCAI product satellite data is used as supporting data for the convective cloud development analysis. Based on the results of graphs, contours, and Hovmoller vertical cut from ERA5 modeling, the vertical velocity values in the 925 Mb-300 Mb layer in Sukabumi, Sekadau, and Bogor before the hail event ranged between -1.2-(-0.2), -1.5-(-0.2), -1-0 Pa/s. A negative value indicates that there is an upward motion from the air mass that trigger the convective cloud growth, which produces hail. It is evidenced by the presence of Cumulonimbus cloud on HCAI product when the hail falls. Therefore, the vertical velocity has significant effect on the hail event. In addition, the relative humidity in the 850-700 Mb layer is quite wet, which ranges from 80-90%. Meanwhile, the streamline and wind velocity in the three regions show the convergence with slowing wind velocity ranging from 2-4 knots. These results show that the upward motion of the vertical velocity is enough to form the wet atmospheric humidity and form a convergence for the growth of the convective cloud, which produce hail in the dry season.Keywords: hail, extreme weather, vertical velocity, relative humidity, streamline
Procedia PDF Downloads 149751 Gradient-Based Reliability Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in Ningbo, China
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Recent extreme weather events, such as the 2021 European floods and North American heatwaves, have exposed the vulnerability of energy systems to both extreme demand scenarios and potential physical damage. Current integrated energy system designs often overlook performance under these challenging conditions. This research, focusing on a regional integrated energy system in Ningbo, China, proposes a distinct design method to optimize system reliability during extreme events. A multi-scenario model was developed, encompassing various extreme load conditions and potential system damages caused by severe weather. Based on this model, a comprehensive reliability improvement scheme was designed, incorporating a gradient approach to address different levels of disaster severity through the integration of advanced technologies like distributed energy storage. The scheme's effectiveness was validated through Monte Carlo simulations. Results demonstrate significant enhancements in energy supply reliability and peak load reduction capability under extreme scenarios. The findings provide several insights for improving energy system adaptability in the face of climate-induced challenges, offering valuable references for building reliable energy infrastructure capable of withstanding both extreme demands and physical threats across a spectrum of disaster intensities.Keywords: extreme weather events, integrated energy systems, reliability improvement, climate change adaptation
Procedia PDF Downloads 5750 Rainstorm Characteristics over the Northeastern Region of Thailand: Weather Radar Analysis
Authors: P. Intaracharoen, P. Chantraket, C. Detyothin, S. Kirtsaeng
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Radar reflectivity data from Phimai weather radar station of DRRAA (Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation) were used to analyzed the rainstorm characteristics via Thunderstorm Identification Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) algorithm. The Phimai weather radar station was situated at Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern Thailand. The data from 277 days of rainstorm events occurring from May 2016 to May 2017 were used to investigate temporal distribution characteristics of convective individual rainclouds. The important storm properties, structures, and their behaviors were analyzed by 9 variables as storm number, storm duration, storm volume, storm area, storm top, storm base, storm speed, storm orientation, and maximum storm reflectivity. The rainstorm characteristics were also examined by separating the data into two periods as wet and dry season followed by an announcement of TMD (Thai Meteorological Department), under the influence of southwest monsoon (SWM) and northeast monsoon (NEM). According to the characteristics of rainstorm results, it can be seen that rainstorms during the SWM influence were found to be the most potential rainstorms over northeastern region of Thailand. The SWM rainstorms are larger number of the storm (404, 140 no./day), storm area (34.09, 26.79 km²) and storm volume (95.43, 66.97 km³) than NEM rainstorms, respectively. For the storm duration, the average individual storm duration during the SWM and NEM was found a minor difference in both periods (47.6, 48.38 min) and almost all storm duration in both periods were less than 3 hours. The storm velocity was not exceeding 15 km/hr (13.34 km/hr for SWM and 10.67 km/hr for NEM). For the rainstorm reflectivity, it was found a little difference between wet and dry season (43.08 dBz for SWM and 43.72 dBz for NEM). It assumed that rainstorms occurred in both seasons have same raindrop size.Keywords: rainstorm characteristics, weather radar, TITAN, Northeastern Thailand
Procedia PDF Downloads 185749 A Case Study of Typhoon Tracks: Insights from the Interaction between Typhoon Hinnamnor and Ocean Currents in 2022
Authors: Wei-Kuo Soong
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The forecasting of typhoon tracks remains a formidable challenge, primarily attributable to the paucity of observational data in the open sea and the intricate influence of weather systems at varying scales. This study investigates the case of Typhoon Hinnamnor in 2022, examining its trajectory and intensity fluctuations in relation to the interaction with a concurrent tropical cyclone and sea surface temperatures (SST). Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), to simulate and analyze the interaction between Typhoon Hinnamnor and its environmental factors, shedding light on the mechanisms driving typhoon development and enhancing forecasting capabilities.Keywords: typhoon, sea surface temperature, forecasting, WRF
Procedia PDF Downloads 49748 A Study on Vulnerability of Alahsa Governorate to Generate Urban Heat Islands
Authors: Ilham S. M. Elsayed
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The purpose of this study is to investigate Alahsa Governorate status and its vulnerability to generate urban heat islands. Alahsa Governorate is a famous oasis in the Arabic Peninsula including several oil centers. Extensive literature review was done to collect previous relative data on the urban heat island of Alahsa Governorate. Data used for the purpose of this research were collected from authorized bodies who control weather station networks over Alahsa Governorate, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia. Although, the number of weather station networks within the region is very limited and the analysis using GIS software and its techniques is difficult and limited, the data analyzed confirm an increase in temperature for more than 2 °C from 2004 to 2014. Such increase is considerable whenever human health and comfort are the concern. The increase of temperature within one decade confirms the availability of urban heat islands. The study concludes that, Alahsa Governorate is vulnerable to create urban heat islands and more attention should be drawn to strategic planning of the governorate that is developing with a high pace and considerable increasing levels of urbanization.Keywords: Alahsa Governorate, population density, Urban Heat Island, weather station
Procedia PDF Downloads 242747 Analysis of Weather Variability Impact on Yields of Some Crops in Southwest, Nigeria
Authors: Olumuyiwa Idowu Ojo, Oluwatobi Peter Olowo
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The study developed a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database and mapped inter-annual changes in crop yields of cassava, cowpea, maize, rice, melon and yam as a response to inter-annual rainfall and temperature variability in Southwest, Nigeria. The aim of this project is to study the comparative analysis of the weather variability impact of six crops yield (Rice, melon, yam, cassava, Maize and cowpea) in South Western States of Nigeria (Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun and Lagos) from 1991 – 2007. The data was imported and analysed in the Arch GIS 9 – 3 software environment. The various parameters (temperature, rainfall, crop yields) were interpolated using the kriging method. The results generated through interpolation were clipped to the study area. Geographically weighted regression was chosen from the spatial statistics toolbox in Arch GIS 9.3 software to analyse and predict the relationship between temperature, rainfall and the different crops (Cowpea, maize, rice, melon, yam, and cassava).Keywords: GIS, crop yields, comparative analysis, temperature, rainfall, weather variability
Procedia PDF Downloads 319746 Coastal Flood Mapping of Vulnerability Due to Sea Level Rise and Extreme Weather Events: A Case Study of St. Ives, UK
Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell
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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events
Procedia PDF Downloads 391745 Identifying Critical Links of a Transport Network When Affected by a Climatological Hazard
Authors: Beatriz Martinez-Pastor, Maria Nogal, Alan O'Connor
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During the last years, the number of extreme weather events has increased. A variety of extreme weather events, including river floods, rain-induced landslides, droughts, winter storms, wildfire, and hurricanes, have threatened and damaged many different regions worldwide. These events have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems resulting in high social, economical and environmental costs. These events have a huge impact in transport systems. Since, transport networks are completely exposed to every kind of climatological perturbations, and its performance is closely related with these events. When a traffic network is affected by a climatological hazard, the quality of its service is threatened, and the level of the traffic conditions usually decreases. With the aim of understanding this process, the concept of resilience has become most popular in the area of transport. Transport resilience analyses the behavior of a traffic network when a perturbation takes place. This holistic concept studies the complete process, from the beginning of the perturbation until the total recovery of the system, when the perturbation has finished. Many concepts are included in the definition of resilience, such as vulnerability, redundancy, adaptability, and safety. Once the resilience of a transport network can be evaluated, in this case, the methodology used is a dynamic equilibrium-restricted assignment model that allows the quantification of the concept, the next step is its improvement. Through the improvement of this concept, it will be possible to create transport networks that are able to withstand and have a better performance under the presence of climatological hazards. Analyzing the impact of a perturbation in a traffic network, it is observed that the response of the different links, which are part of the network, can be completely different from one to another. Consequently and due to this effect, many questions arise, as what makes a link more critical before an extreme weather event? or how is it possible to identify these critical links? With this aim, and knowing that most of the times the owners or managers of the transport systems have limited resources, the identification of the critical links of a transport network before extreme weather events, becomes a crucial objective. For that reason, using the available resources in the areas that will generate a higher improvement of the resilience, will contribute to the global development of the network. Therefore, this paper wants to analyze what kind of characteristic makes a link a critical one when an extreme weather event damages a transport network and finally identify them.Keywords: critical links, extreme weather events, hazard, resilience, transport network
Procedia PDF Downloads 279744 A Vehicle Monitoring System Based on the LoRa Technique
Authors: Chao-Linag Hsieh, Zheng-Wei Ye, Chen-Kang Huang, Yeun-Chung Lee, Chih-Hong Sun, Tzai-Hung Wen, Jehn-Yih Juang, Joe-Air Jiang
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Air pollution and climate warming become more and more intensified in many areas, especially in urban areas. Environmental parameters are critical information to air pollution and weather monitoring. Thus, it is necessary to develop a suitable air pollution and weather monitoring system for urban areas. In this study, a vehicle monitoring system (VMS) based on the IoT technique is developed. Cars are selected as the research tool because it can reach a greater number of streets to collect data. The VMS can monitor different environmental parameters, including ambient temperature and humidity, and air quality parameters, including PM2.5, NO2, CO, and O3. The VMS can provide other information, including GPS signals and the vibration information through driving a car on the street. Different sensor modules are used to measure the parameters and collect the measured data and transmit them to a cloud server through the LoRa protocol. A user interface is used to show the sensing data storing at the cloud server. To examine the performance of the system, a researcher drove a Nissan x-trail 1998 to the area close to the Da’an District office in Taipei to collect monitoring data. The collected data are instantly shown on the user interface. The four kinds of information are provided by the interface: GPS positions, weather parameters, vehicle information, and air quality information. With the VMS, users can obtain the information regarding air quality and weather conditions when they drive their car to an urban area. Also, government agencies can make decisions on traffic planning based on the information provided by the proposed VMS.Keywords: LoRa, monitoring system, smart city, vehicle
Procedia PDF Downloads 400743 Optimizing Protection of Medieval Glass Mosaic
Authors: J. Valach, S. Pospisil, S. Kuznecov
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The paper deals with experimental estimation of future environmental load on medieval mosaic of Last Judgement on entrance to St. Vitus cathedral on Prague castle. The mosaic suffers from seasonal changes of weather pattern, as well as rains, their acidity, deposition of dust and sooth particles from polluted air and also from freeze-thaw cycles. These phenomena influence state of the mosaic. The mosaic elements, tesserae are mostly made from glass prone to weathering. To estimate future procedure of the best maintenance, relation between various weather scenarios and their effect on the mosaic was investigated. At the same time local method for evaluation of protective coating was developed. Together both methods will contribute to better care for the mosaic and also visitors aesthetical experience.Keywords: environmental load, cultural heritage, glass mosaic, protection
Procedia PDF Downloads 271742 Studying Language of Immediacy and Language of Distance from a Corpus Linguistic Perspective: A Pilot Study of Evaluation Markers in French Television Weather Reports
Authors: Vince Liégeois
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Language of immediacy and distance: Within their discourse theory, Koch & Oesterreicher establish a distinction between a language of immediacy and a language of distance. The former refers to those discourses which are oriented more towards a spoken norm, whereas the latter entails discourses oriented towards a written norm, regardless of whether they are realised phonically or graphically. This means that an utterance can be realised phonically but oriented more towards the written language norm (e.g., a scientific presentation or eulogy) or realised graphically but oriented towards a spoken norm (e.g., a scribble or chat messages). Research desiderata: The methodological approach from Koch & Oesterreicher has often been criticised for not providing a corpus-linguistic methodology, which makes it difficult to work with quantitative data or address large text collections within this research paradigm. Consequently, the Koch & Oesterreicher approach has difficulties gaining ground in those research areas which rely more on corpus linguistic research models, like text linguistics and LSP-research. A combinatory approach: Accordingly, we want to establish a combinatory approach with corpus-based linguistic methodology. To this end, we propose to (i) include data about the context of an utterance (e.g., monologicity/dialogicity, familiarity with the speaker) – which were called “conditions of communication” in the original work of Koch & Oesterreicher – and (ii) correlate the linguistic phenomenon at the centre of the inquiry (e.g., evaluation markers) to a group of linguistic phenomena deemed typical for either distance- or immediacy-language. Based on these two parameters, linguistic phenomena and texts could then be mapped on an immediacy-distance continuum. Pilot study: To illustrate the benefits of this approach, we will conduct a pilot study on evaluation phenomena in French television weather reports, a form of domain-sensitive discourse which has often been cited as an example of a “text genre”. Within this text genre, we will look at so-called “evaluation markers,” e.g., fixed strings like bad weather, stifling hot, and “no luck today!”. These evaluation markers help to communicate the coming weather situation towards the lay audience but have not yet been studied within the Koch & Oesterreicher research paradigm. Accordingly, we want to figure out whether said evaluation markers are more typical for those weather reports which tend more towards immediacy or those which tend more towards distance. To this aim, we collected a corpus with different kinds of television weather reports,e.g., as part of the news broadcast, including dialogue. The evaluation markers themselves will be studied according to the explained methodology, by correlating them to (i) metadata about the context and (ii) linguistic phenomena characterising immediacy-language: repetition, deixis (personal, spatial, and temporal), a freer choice of tense and right- /left-dislocation. Results: Our results indicate that evaluation markers are more dominantly present in those weather reports inclining towards immediacy-language. Based on the methodology established above, we have gained more insight into the working of evaluation markers in the domain-sensitive text genre of (television) weather reports. For future research, it will be interesting to determine whether said evaluation markers are also typical for immediacy-language-oriented in other domain-sensitive discourses.Keywords: corpus-based linguistics, evaluation markers, language of immediacy and distance, weather reports
Procedia PDF Downloads 211741 Evaluating the Effects of Weather and Climate Change to Risks in Crop Production
Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers
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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 376740 Vine Copula Structure among Yield, Price and Weather Variables for Rating Crop Insurance Premium
Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu
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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 193739 Solar Radiation Time Series Prediction
Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs
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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 379738 Impact of Global Climate Change on Economy of Pakistan: How to Ensure Sustainable Food and Energy Production
Authors: Sabahat Zahra
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The purpose of this research is to present the changing global environment and its potential impacts on sustainable food and energy production at global level, particularly in Pakistan. The food and energy related-economic sector has been subjected to negative consequences due to recent extreme changes in weather conditions, particularly in developing countries. Besides continuous modifications in weather, population is also increasing by time, therefore it is necessary to take special steps and start effective initiatives to cope with the challenges of food and energy security to fight hunger and for economic stability of country. Severe increase in temperature and heat waves has also negative impacts on food production as well as energy sustainability. Energy (in terms of electricity) consumption has grown up than the production potential of the country as a consequence of increasing warm weather. Ultimately prices gone up when there is more consumption than production. Therefore, all these aspects of climate change are interrelated with socio-economic issues. There is a need to develop long-term policies on regional and national levels for maintainable economic growth. This research presents a framework-plan and recommendations for implementation needed to mitigate the potential threats due to global climate change sustainable food and energy production under climate change in the country.Keywords: climate changes, energy security, food security, global climate change
Procedia PDF Downloads 340737 Space Weather and Earthquakes: A Case Study of Solar Flare X9.3 Class on September 6, 2017
Authors: Viktor Novikov, Yuri Ruzhin
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The studies completed to-date on a relation of the Earth's seismicity and solar processes provide the fuzzy and contradictory results. For verification of an idea that solar flares can trigger earthquakes, we have analyzed a case of a powerful surge of solar flash activity early in September 2017 during approaching the minimum of 24th solar cycle was accompanied by significant disturbances of space weather. On September 6, 2017, a group of sunspots AR2673 generated a large solar flare of X9.3 class, the strongest flare over the past twelve years. Its explosion produced a coronal mass ejection partially directed towards the Earth. We carried out a statistical analysis of the catalogs of earthquakes USGS and EMSC for determination of the effect of solar flares on global seismic activity. New evidence of earthquake triggering due to the Sun-Earth interaction has been demonstrated by simple comparison of behavior of Earth's seismicity before and after the strong solar flare. The global number of earthquakes with magnitude of 2.5 to 5.5 within 11 days after the solar flare has increased by 30 to 100%. A possibility of electric/electromagnetic triggering of earthquake due to space weather disturbances is supported by results of field and laboratory studies, where the earthquakes (both natural and laboratory) were initiated by injection of electrical current into the Earth crust. For the specific case of artificial electric earthquake triggering the current density at a depth of earthquake, sources are comparable with estimations of a density of telluric currents induced by variation of space weather conditions due to solar flares. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by RFBR grant No. 18-05-00255.Keywords: solar flare, earthquake activity, earthquake triggering, solar-terrestrial relations
Procedia PDF Downloads 138736 University Students Sport’s Activities Assessment in Harsh Weather Conditions
Authors: Ammar S. M. Moohialdin, Bambang T. Suhariadi, Mohsin Siddiqui
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This paper addresses the application of physiological status monitoring (PSM) for assessing the impact of harsh weather conditions on sports activities in universities in Saudi Arabia. Real sports measurement was conducted during sports activities such that the physiological status (HR and BR) of five students were continuously monitored by using Zephyr BioHarnessTM 3.0 sensors in order to identify the physiological bonds and zones. These bonds and zones were employed as indicators of the associated physiological risks of the performed sports activities. Furthermore, a short yes/no questionnaire was applied to collect information on participants’ health conditions and opinions of the applied PSM sensors. The results show the absence of a warning system as a protective aid for the hazardous levels of extremely hot and humid weather conditions that may cause dangerous and fatal circumstances. The applied formulas for estimating maximum HR provides accurate estimations for Maximum Heart Rate (HRmax). The physiological results reveal that the performed activities by the participants are considered the highest category (90–100%) in terms of activity intensity. This category is associated with higher HR, BR and physiological risks including losing the ability to control human body behaviors. Therefore, there is a need for immediate intervention actions to reduce the intensity of the performed activities to safer zones. The outcomes of this study assist the safety improvement of sports activities inside universities and athletes performing their sports activities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to represent a special case of the application of PSM technology for assessing sports activities in universities considering the impacts of harsh weather conditions on students’ health and safety.Keywords: physiological status monitoring (PSM), heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR), Arabian Gulf
Procedia PDF Downloads 192735 Determination of Measurement Uncertainty of the Diagnostic Meteorological Model CALMET
Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina
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Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET
Procedia PDF Downloads 74734 Improving Short-Term Forecast of Solar Irradiance
Authors: Kwa-Sur Tam, Byung O. Kang
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By using different ranges of daily sky clearness index defined in this paper, any day can be classified as a clear sky day, a partly cloudy day or a cloudy day. This paper demonstrates how short-term forecasting of solar irradiation can be improved by taking into consideration the type of day so defined. The source of day type dependency has been identified. Forecasting methods that take into consideration of day type have been developed and their efficacy have been established. While all methods that implement some form of adjustment to the cloud cover forecast provided by the U.S. National Weather Service provide accuracy improvement, methods that incorporate day type dependency provides even further improvement in forecast accuracy.Keywords: day types, forecast methods, National Weather Service, sky cover, solar energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 457733 Verification of Simulated Accumulated Precipitation
Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze
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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 144