Search results for: natural vulnerability

Authors: Sanju Vaidya, Aihua Li

Abstract:

Vulnerability measures and topological indices are crucial in solving various problems such as the stability of the communication networks and development of mathematical models for chemical compounds. In 1947, Harry Wiener introduced a topological index related to molecular branching. Now there are more than 100 topological indices for graphs. For example, Hosoya polynomials (also called Wiener polynomials) were introduced to derive formulas for certain vulnerability measures and topological indices for various graphs. In this paper, we will find a relation between the Hosoya polynomials of any graph and its Mycielskian graph. Additionally, using this we will compute vulnerability measures, closeness and betweenness centrality, and extended Wiener indices. It is fascinating to see how Hosoya polynomials are useful in the two diverse fields, cybersecurity and chemistry.

Keywords: hosoya polynomial, mycielskian graph, graph vulnerability measure, topological index

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

Abstract:

Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Nasiru Medugu Idris

Abstract:

This research is aimed at assessing the vulnerability of climate change to rural communities (farmers, herdsmen and fishermen) in Nigeria with the view to study the underlying causes and degree of vulnerability to climate change and examine the conflict between farmers and herdsmen as a result of climate change. This research employed the use of quantitative and qualitative means of data gathering techniques as well as physical observations. Six states (Kebbi, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Osun, Ebonyi, and Akwa Ibom) have been selected on the ground that they are key food production areas in the country and are therefore essential to continual food security in the country. So also, they also double as fishing communities in order to aid the comprehensive study of all the effects on climate on farmers and fishermen alike. Community focus group discussions were carried out in the various states for an interactive session and also to have firsthand information on their level of awareness on climate change. Climate data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency over the past decade were collected for the purpose of analyzing trends in climate. The study observed that the level of vulnerability of rural dwellers most especially farmers, herdsmen and fishermen to climate change is very high due to their socioeconomic, ethnic and historical perspective of their trend. The study, therefore, recommends that urgent step needs to be put in place to help control natural hazards and man-made disasters and serious measures are also needed in order to minimize severe societal, economic and political crises; some of which may either escalate to violent conflicts or could be avoided by efforts of conflict resolution and prevention by the initiation of a process of de-escalation. So this study has recommended the best-fit adaptive and mitigation measures to climate change vulnerability in rural communities of Nigeria.

Keywords: adaptation, farmers, fishermen, herdsmen

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano

Abstract:

A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.

Keywords: disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

Abstract:

Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 556

Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

Abstract:

The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

Abstract:

Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Nadir A. Carreon, Christa Sonderer, Aakarsh Rao, Roman Lysecky

Abstract:

With the advent of complex software and increased connectivity, the security of life-critical medical devices is becoming an increasing concern, particularly with their direct impact on human safety. Security is essential, but it is impossible to develop completely secure and impenetrable systems at design time. Therefore, it is important to assess the potential impact on the security and safety of exploiting a vulnerability in such critical medical systems. The common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) calculates the severity of exploitable vulnerabilities. However, for medical devices it does not consider the unique challenges of impacts to human health and privacy. Thus, the scoring of a medical device on which human life depends (e.g., pacemakers, insulin pumps) can score very low, while a system on which human life does not depend (e.g., hospital archiving systems) might score very high. In this paper, we propose a medical vulnerability scoring system (MVSS) that extends CVSS to address the health and privacy concerns of medical devices. We propose incorporating two new parameters, namely health impact, and sensitivity impact. Sensitivity refers to the type of information that can be stolen from the device, and health represents the impact on the safety of the patient if the vulnerability is exploited (e.g., potential harm, life-threatening). We evaluate fifteen different known vulnerabilities in medical devices and compare MVSS against two state-of-the-art medical device-oriented vulnerability scoring systems and the foundational CVSS.

Keywords: common vulnerability system, medical devices, medical device security, vulnerabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Enze Zhang

Abstract:

Large numbers of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are constructed or proposed all around the world as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. Nowadays, as climate change warms the atmosphere, alters the hydrologic cycle, and perturbs water availability, large scale IBWTs which are sensitive to these water-related changes may carry significant risk. Given this reality, IBWTs have elicited great controversy and assessments of vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed worldwide. In this paper, we consider the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in China as a case study, and introduce a bottom-up vulnerability assessment framework. Key hazards and risks related to climate change that threaten future water availability for the SNWTP are firstly identified. Then a performance indicator is presented to quantify the vulnerability of IBWT by taking three main elements (i.e., sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree) into account. A probabilistic Budyko model is adapted to estimate water availability responses to a wide range of possibilities for future climate conditions in each region of the study area. After bottom-up quantifying the vulnerability based on the estimated water availability, our findings confirm that SNWTP would greatly alleviate geographical imbalances in water availability under some moderate climate change scenarios but raises questions about whether it is a long-term solution because the donor basin has a high level of vulnerability due to extreme climate change.

Keywords: vulnerability, climate change, inter-basin water transfer, bottom-up

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

Abstract:

With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Fathul Mubin, Budi E. Nurcahya

Abstract:

In 2006, a large earthquake ever occurred in the province of Yogyakarta, which caused considerable damage. This is the basis need to investigate the seismic vulnerability index in around of the earthquake zone. This research is called microzonation of earthquake hazard. This research has been conducted at the site and surrounding of Prambanan Temple, includes homes and civil buildings. The reason this research needs to be done because in the event of an earthquake in 2006, there was damage to the temples at Prambanan temple complex and its surroundings. In this research, data collection carried out for 60 minutes using three component seismograph measurements at 165 points with spacing of 1000 meters. The data recorded in time function were analyzed using the spectral ratio method, known as the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR). Results from this analysis are dominant frequency (Fg) and maximum amplification factor (Ag) are used to obtain seismic vulnerability index. The results of research showed the dominant frequency range from 0.5 to 30 Hz and the amplification is in interval from 0.5 to 9. Interval value for seismic vulnerability index is 0.1 to 50. Based on distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index and impact of buildings damage seemed for suitability. For further research, it needs to survey to the east (klaten) and south (Bantul, DIY) to determine a full distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index.

Keywords: amplification factor, dominant frequency, microzonation analysis, seismic vulnerability index

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Somayyeh Karimiyan

Abstract:

To evaluate the seismic vulnerability of vital offshore structures with the highest possible precision, Nonlinear Time History Analyses (NLTHA), is the most reliable method. However, since it is very time-consuming, a quick procedure is greatly desired. This paper presents a quick method by combining the Push Over Analysis (POA) and the NLTHA. The POA is preformed first to recognize the more critical members, and then the NLTHA is performed to evaluate more precisely the critical members’ vulnerability. The proposed method has been applied to jacket type structure. Results show that combining POA and NLTHA is a reliable seismic evaluation method, and also that none of the earthquake characteristics alone, can be a dominant factor in vulnerability evaluation.

Keywords: jacket structure, seismic evaluation, push-over and nonlinear time history analyses, critical members

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

Abstract:

The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Maria M. Giannakou, Athanasios K. Ziliaskopoulos

Abstract:

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are often routed through populated cities, industrial and environmentally sensitive areas. While the need for these networks is unquestionable, there are serious concerns about the risk these lifeline networks pose to the people, to their habitat and to the critical infrastructures, especially in view of natural disasters such as earthquakes. This work presents an Integrated Pipeline Risk Management methodology (IPRM) for assessing the hazard associated with a natural gas pipeline failure due to natural or manmade disasters. IPRM aims to optimize the allocation of the available resources to countermeasures in order to minimize the impacts of pipeline failure to humans, the environment, the infrastructure and the economic activity. A proposed knapsack mathematical programming formulation is introduced that optimally selects the proper mitigation policies based on the estimated cost – benefit ratios. The proposed model is demonstrated with a small numerical example. The vulnerability analysis of these pipelines and the quantification of consequences from such failures can be useful for natural gas industries on deciding which mitigation measures to implement on the existing pipeline networks with the minimum cost in an acceptable level of hazard.

Keywords: cost benefit analysis, knapsack problem, natural gas distribution network, risk management, risk mitigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Joseph Gear, Yue Xu, Ernest Foo, Praveen Gauravaran, Zahra Jadidi, Leonie Simpson

Abstract:

Deep learning methods have been seeing an increasing application to the long-standing security research goal of automatic vulnerability detection for source code. Attention, however, must still be paid to the task of producing vector representations for source code (code embeddings) as input for these deep learning models. Graphical representations of code, most predominantly Abstract Syntax Trees and Code Property Graphs, have received some use in this task of late; however, for very large graphs representing very large code snip- pets, learning becomes prohibitively computationally expensive. This expense may be reduced by intelligently pruning this input to only vulnerability-relevant information; however, little research in this area has been performed. Additionally, most existing work comprehends code based solely on the structure of the graph at the expense of the information contained by the node in the graph. This paper proposes Semantic-enhanced Code Embedding for Vulnerability Discovery (SCEVD), a deep learning model which uses semantic-based feature selection for its vulnerability classification model. It uses information from the nodes as well as the structure of the code graph in order to select features which are most indicative of the presence or absence of vulnerabilities. This model is implemented and experimentally tested using the SARD Juliet vulnerability test suite to determine its efficacy. It is able to improve on existing code graph feature selection methods, as demonstrated by its improved ability to discover vulnerabilities.

Keywords: code representation, deep learning, source code semantics, vulnerability discovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Richard Wolfel, Amy Richmond

Abstract:

Urban resilience and vulnerability are critical concepts in the modern city due to the increased sociocultural, political, economic, demographic, and environmental stressors that influence current urban dynamics. Urban scholars need help explaining urban resilience and vulnerability. First, cities are dominated by people, which is challenging to model, both from an explanatory and a predictive perspective. Second, urban regions are highly recursive in nature, meaning they not only influence human action, but the structures of cities are constantly changing due to human actions. As a result, explanatory frameworks must continuously evolve as humans influence and are influenced by the urban environment in which they operate. Finally, modern cities have populations, sociocultural characteristics, economic flows, and environmental impacts on order of magnitude well beyond the cities of the past. As a result, the frameworks that seek to explain the various functions of a city that influence urban resilience and vulnerability must address the complex adaptive nature of cities and the interaction of many distinct factors that influence resilience and vulnerability in the city. This project develops a taxonomy and framework for organizing and explaining urban vulnerability. The framework is built on a well-established political development model that includes six critical classes of urban dynamics: political presence, political legitimacy, political participation, identity, production, and allocation. In addition, the framework explores how environmental security and technology influence and are influenced by the six elements of political development. The framework aims to identify key tipping points in society that act as influential agents of urban vulnerability in a region. This will help analysts and scholars predict and explain the influence of both physical and human geographical stressors in a dense urban area.

Keywords: urban resilience, vulnerability, sociocultural stressors, political stressors

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Francesco Preti, Karen Angeles, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

Abstract:

Catastrophe modeling has evolved significantly over the last four decades. Verisk introduced its pioneering comprehensive inland flood model tailored for the U.K. in 2008. Over the course of the last 15 years, Verisk has built a suite of physically driven flood models for several countries and regions across the globe. This paper aims to spotlight a selection of these advancements tailored to the development of vulnerability estimation, which forms an integral part of a forthcoming update to Verisk’s U.K. inland flood model. Vulnerability functions are critical to evaluating and robust modeling flood-induced damage to buildings and contents. The subsequent damage assessments then allow for direct quantification of losses for entire building portfolios. Notably, today’s flood loss models more often prioritize enhanced development of hazard characterization, while vulnerability functions often lack sufficient granularity for a robust assessment. This study proposes a novel, engineering-driven, physically based component-level flood vulnerability framework for the U.K. Various aspects of the framework, including component classification and comprehensive cost analysis, meticulously tailored to capture the distinct building characteristics unique to the U.K., will be discussed. This analysis will elucidate how the cost distribution across individual components contributes to translating component-level damage functions into building-level damage functions. Furthermore, a succinct overview of essential datasets employed to gauge building regional vulnerability will be highlighted.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, inland flood, vulnerability, cost analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Mohammadreza Vafaei, Amirali Moradi, Sophia C. Alih

Abstract:

The method selected for the design of structures not only can affect their seismic vulnerability but also can affect their construction cost. For the design of steel structures, two distinct methods have been introduced by existing codes, namely allowable stress design (ASD) and load resistant factor design (LRFD). This study investigates the effect of using the aforementioned design methods on the seismic vulnerability and construction cost of steel structures. Specifically, a 20-story building equipped with special moment resisting frame and an eccentrically braced system was selected for this study. The building was designed for three different intensities of peak ground acceleration including 0.2 g, 0.25 g, and 0.3 g using the ASD and LRFD methods. The required sizes of beams, columns, and braces were obtained using response spectrum analysis. Then, the designed frames were subjected to nine natural earthquake records which were scaled to the designed response spectrum. For each frame, the base shear, story shears, and inter-story drifts were calculated and then were compared. Results indicated that the LRFD method led to a more economical design for the frames. In addition, the LRFD method resulted in lower base shears and larger inter-story drifts when compared with the ASD method. It was concluded that the application of the LRFD method not only reduced the weights of structural elements but also provided a higher safety margin against seismic actions when compared with the ASD method.

Keywords: allowable stress design, load resistant factor design, nonlinear time history analysis, seismic vulnerability, steel structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

Abstract:

Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

Abstract:

This study examines adaptation measures and factors that influence adaptation decisions in Bequia by using multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. Using survey data, the results suggest that households are knowledgeable and concerned about climate change but lack knowledge about the measures needed to adapt. The findings from the SEM suggest that a positive relationship exist between vulnerability and adaptation, vulnerability and perception, along with a negative relationship between perception and adaptation. This suggests that being aware of the terms associated with climate change and knowledge about climate change is insufficient for implementing adaptation measures; instead the risk and importance placed on climate change, vulnerability experienced with household flooding, drainage and expected threat of future sea level are the main factors that influence the adaptation decision. The results obtained in this study are beneficial to all as adaptation requires a collective effort by stakeholders.

Keywords: adaptation, Bequia, multiple linear regression, structural equation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

Abstract:

Climate change has become a major concern globally, particularly in rural communities that have to find rapid coping solutions. Several vulnerability assessment approaches have been developed in the last decades. This comes along with a higher risk for different methods to result in different conclusions, thereby making comparisons difficult and decision-making non-consistent across areas. The effect of methods and computational approaches on estimates of people’s vulnerability was assessed using data collected from the Gambia. Twenty-four indicators reflecting vulnerability components: (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were selected for this purpose. Data were collected through household surveys and key informant interviews. One hundred and fifteen respondents were surveyed across six communities and two administrative districts. Results were compared over three computational approaches: the maximum value transformation normalization, the z-score transformation normalization, and simple averaging. Regardless of the approaches used, communities that have high exposure to climate change and extreme events were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the vulnerability was strongly related to the socio-economic characteristics of farmers. The survey evidenced variability in vulnerability among communities and administrative districts. Comparing output across approaches, overall, people in the study area were found to be highly vulnerable using the simple average and maximum value transformation, whereas they were only moderately vulnerable using the z-score transformation approach. It is suggested that assessment approach-induced discrepancies be accounted for in international debates to harmonize/standardize assessment approaches to the end of making outputs comparable across regions. This will also likely increase the relevance of decision-making for adaptation policies.

Keywords: maximum value transformation, simple averaging, vulnerability assessment, West Africa, z-score transformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Nadjah Chergui, Narhimene Boustia

Abstract:

Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks. The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.

Keywords: context, default, exception, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare Id, Bernhard Freyer, Ky Serge Stephane, Ouéda Adama, Blessing Mudombi, Jean Nzuma, Mekonen Getachew Abebe, Adane Tesfaye, Birtukan Atinkut Asmare, Tesfahun Asmamaw Kassie

Abstract:

The study was conducted in Ethiopia (Zege Catchment) (ZC), Zimbabwe (Upper Save Catchment) (USC), and Burkina Faso (Nakambe Catchment) (NC). The study utilized a quantitative approach with 180 participants and complemented it with qualitative methods, including 33 key informant interviews and 6 focus group discussions. Households in ZC (58%), NC (55%), and US (40%) do not cover their household food consumption from crop production. The households rely heavily on perennial cash crops rather than annual crop production. Exposure indicators in ZC (0.758), USC (0.774), and NC (0.944), and sensitivity indicators in ZC (0.849) and NC (0.937) show statistically significant and high correlation with vulnerability. In the USC, adaptive capacity (0.746) and exposure (0.774) are also statistically significant and highly correlated with vulnerability. Vulnerability levels of the NC are very high (0.75) (0.85 female and 0.65 male participants) compared to the USC (0.66) (0.69 female and 0.61 male participants) and ZC (0.47) (0.34 female and 0.58 male participants). Female-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to males in ZC, while male-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to females in USC and NC. The reason is land certification in ZC (80%) is higher than in the US (10%) and NC (8%). Agroforestry practices variables across the study catchments had statistically significant contributions to households' adaptive capacity. We conclude that agroforestry practices do have substantial benefits in increasing women's adaptive capacity and reducing their vulnerability to climate change and food insecurity.

Keywords: climate change vulnerability, agroforestry, gender, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Reda Madi

Abstract:

The problem of natural disasters in general and flooding in particular is a topic which marks a memorable action in the world and specifically in cities and large urban areas. Torrential floods and faster flows pose a major problem in urban area. Indeed, a better management of risks of floods becomes a growing necessity that must mobilize technical and scientific means to curb the adverse consequences of this phenomenon, especially in the Saharan cities in arid climate. The aim of this study is to deploy a basic calculation approach based on a hydrologic and hydraulic quantification for locating the black spots in urban areas generated by the flooding and to locate the areas that are vulnerable to flooding. The principle of flooding method is applied to the city of Ghardaia to identify vulnerable areas to inundation and to establish maps management and prevention against the risks of flooding.

Keywords: Alea, Beni Mzab, cartography, HEC-RAS, inundation, torrential, vulnerability, wadi

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Rosario Carmona

Abstract:

This article aims to discuss the importance of indigenous people participation in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Specifically, it analyses different understandings of climate vulnerability among diverse actors involved in climate change policies in Chile: indigenous people, state officials, and academics. These data were collected through participant observation and interviews conducted during October 2017 and January 2019 in Chile. Following Karen O’Brien, there are two types of vulnerability, outcome vulnerability and contextual vulnerability. How vulnerability to climate change is understood determines the approach, which actors are involved and which knowledge is considered to address it. Because climate change is a very complex phenomenon, it is necessary to transform the institutions and their responses. To do so, it is fundamental to consider these two perspectives and different types of knowledge, particularly those of the most vulnerable, such as indigenous people. For centuries and thanks to a long coexistence with the environment, indigenous societies have elaborated coping strategies, and some of them are already adapting to climate change. Indigenous people from Chile are not an exception. But, indigenous people tend to be excluded from decision-making processes. And indigenous knowledge is frequently seen as subjective and arbitrary in relation to science. Nevertheless, last years indigenous knowledge has gained particular relevance in the academic world, and indigenous actors are getting prominence in international negotiations. There are some mechanisms that promote their participation (e.g., Cancun safeguards, World Bank operational policies, REDD+), which are not absent from difficulties. And since 2016 parties are working on a Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform. This paper also explores the incidence of this process in Chile. Although there is progress in the participation of indigenous people, this participation responds to the operational policies of the funding agencies and not to a real commitment of the state with this sector. The State of Chile omits a review of the structure that promotes inequality and the exclusion of indigenous people. In this way, climate change policies could be configured as a new mechanism of coloniality that validates a single type of knowledge and leads to new territorial control strategies, which increases vulnerability.

Keywords: indigenous knowledge, climate change, vulnerability, Chile

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Chao Xu

Abstract:

Selecting ground motion intensity measures reasonably is one of the very important issues to affect the input ground motions selecting and the reliability of vulnerability analysis results. In this paper, inelastic spectral displacement is used as an alternative intensity measure to characterize the ground motion damage potential. The inelastic spectral displacement is calculated based modal pushover analysis and inelastic spectral displacement based incremental dynamic analysis is developed. Probability seismic demand analysis of a six story and an eleven story RC frame are carried out through cloud analysis and advanced incremental dynamic analysis. The sufficiency and efficiency of inelastic spectral displacement are investigated by means of regression and residual analysis, and compared with elastic spectral displacement. Vulnerability curves are developed based on inelastic spectral displacement. The study shows that inelastic spectral displacement reflects the impact of different frequency components with periods larger than fundamental period on inelastic structural response. The damage potential of ground motion on structures with fundamental period prolonging caused by structural soften can be caught by inelastic spectral displacement. To be compared with elastic spectral displacement, inelastic spectral displacement is a more sufficient and efficient intensity measure, which reduces the uncertainty of vulnerability analysis and the impact of input ground motion selection on vulnerability analysis result.

Keywords: vulnerability, probability seismic demand analysis, ground motion intensity measure, sufficiency, efficiency, inelastic time history analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Serges Mendomo Meye, Li Guowei, Shen Zhenzhong

Abstract:

Earthquake is one of the main loads threatening dam safety. Once the dam is damaged, it will bring huge losses of life and property to the country and people. Therefore, it is very important to research the seismic safety of the dam. Due to the complex foundation conditions, high fortification intensity, and high scientific and technological content, it is necessary to adopt reasonable methods to evaluate the seismic safety performance of concrete arch dams built and under construction in strong earthquake areas. Structural seismic vulnerability analysis can predict the probability of structural failure at all levels under different intensity earthquakes, which can provide a scientific basis for reasonable seismic safety evaluation and decision-making. In this paper, the response surface method (RSM) is applied to the seismic vulnerability analysis of arch dams, which improves the efficiency of vulnerability analysis. Based on the central composite test design method, the material-seismic intensity samples are established. The response surface model (RSM) with arch crown displacement as performance index is obtained by finite element (FE) calculation of the samples, and then the accuracy of the response surface model (RSM) is verified. To obtain the seismic vulnerability curves, the seismic intensity measure ??(?1) is chosen to be 0.1~1.2g, with an interval of 0.1g and a total of 12 intensity levels. For each seismic intensity level, the arch crown displacement corresponding to 100 sets of different material samples can be calculated by algebraic operation of the response surface model (RSM), which avoids 1200 times of nonlinear dynamic calculation of arch dam; thus, the efficiency of vulnerability analysis is improved greatly.

Keywords: high concrete arch dam, performance index, response surface method, seismic vulnerability analysis, vector-valued intensity measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Sujata Upgupta, Prasoon Kumar Singh

Abstract:

The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km² of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: forest, coal mining, indicators, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Maria Kazantzaki, Evangelos Tsakalos, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

Abstract:

Mediterranean areas are characterized by intense seismic and volcanic activity as well as eustatic changes, the result of which is the creation of particularly vulnerable coastal zones. The most vulnerable are low-lying coastal areas, the geomorphological evolution of which are highly affected by natural processes and anthropogenic interventions. Therefore, assessing changes that take place along coastal zones is of great importance in order to enable the development of integrated coastal management plans. A characteristic case is the gulf of Mirabello in N.E Crete, where intense coastal erosion, in combination with the tectonic subsidence of the area, threatens a large part of the coastal zone, resulting in direct socio-economic impacts. The present study assesses the temporal geomorphological changes that have taken place in the coastal zone of Mirabello gulf to provide a clear frame of the coastal zone evolution over time and performs a vulnerability assessment based on the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range in the area. In light of this, an impact assessment, based on three different sea level rise scenarios, is also performed and presented.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, GIS, sea level rise

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Chang Hsueh-Sheng, Chen Tzu-Ling

Abstract:

Earthquake is an unpredictable natural disaster and intensive earthquakes have caused serious impacts on social-economic system, environmental and social resilience, and further increase vulnerability. Due to earthquakes do not kill people, buildings do. When buildings located nearby earthquake-prone areas and constructed upon poorer soil areas might result in earthquake-induced ground damage. In addition, many existing buildings built before any improved seismic provisions began to be required in building codes and inappropriate land usage with highly dense population might result in much serious earthquake disaster. Indeed, not only do earthquake disaster impact seriously on urban environment, but urban growth might increase the vulnerability. Since 1980s, ‘Cutting down risks and vulnerability’ has been brought up in both urban planning and architecture and such concept has way beyond retrofitting of seismic damages, seismic resistance, and better anti-seismic structures, and become the key action on disaster mitigation. Land use planning and zoning are two critical non-structural measures on controlling physical development while it is difficult for zoning boards and governing bodies restrict development of questionable lands to uses compatible with the hazard without credible earthquake loss projection. Therefore, identifying potential earthquake exposure, vulnerability people and places, and urban development areas might become strongly supported information for decision makers. Taiwan locates on the Pacific Ring of Fire where a seismically active zone is. Some of the active faults have been found close by densely populated and highly developed built environment in the cities. Therefore, this study attempts to base on the perspective of carrying capacity and draft out micro-zonation according to both vulnerability index and urban growth index while considering spatial variances of multi factors via geographical weighted principle components (GWPCA). The purpose in this study is to construct supported information for decision makers on revising existing zoning in high-risk areas for a more compatible use and the public on managing risks.

Keywords: earthquake disaster, vulnerability, urban growth, carrying capacity, /geographical weighted principle components (GWPCA), bivariate spatial association statistic

Procedia PDF Downloads 230