Search results for: multivariate probit model

Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Rabia Zulfiqar

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This paper attempts to trace the determining factor- as far as individual preferences and expectations are concerned- of what causes the direction of international migration to drift in certain ways owing to factors such as Religiosity and Cultural Assimilation. The narrative on migration has graduated from the age long ‘push/pull’ debate to that of complex factors that may vary across each individual. We explore the longstanding factor of religiosity widely acknowledged in mentioned literature as a key variable in the assessment of migration, wherein the impact of religiosity in the form of a drift into the intent of migration has been analyzed. A more conventional factor cultural assimilation is used in a contemporary way to estimate how it plays a role in affecting the drift in direction. In particular what our research aims at achieving is to isolate the effect our key variables: Cultural Assimilation and Religiosity have on direction of migration, and to explore how they interplay as a composite unit- and how we may be able to justify the change in behavior displayed by these key variables. In order to establish a true sense of what drives individual choices we employ the method of survey research and use a questionnaire to conduct primary research. The questionnaire was divided into six sections covering subjects including household characteristics, perceptions and inclinations of the respondents relevant to our study. Religiosity was quantified using a proxy of Migration Network that utilized secondary data to estimate religious hubs in recipient countries. To estimate the relationship between Intent of Migration and its variants three competing econometric models namely: the Ordered Probit Model, the Ordered Logit Model and the Tobit Model were employed. For every model that included our key variables, a highly significant relationship with the intent of migration was estimated.

Keywords: international migration, drift in direction, cultural assimilation, religiosity, ordered probit model

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Authors: B. Padmaja, V. V. Rama Prasad, K. V. N. Sunitha, E. Krishna Rao Patro

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Stress is a psychological condition that reduces the quality of sleep and affects every facet of life. Constant exposure to stress is detrimental not only for mind but also body. Nevertheless, to cope with stress, one should first identify it. This paper provides an effective method for the cognitive stress level detection by using data provided from a physical activity tracker device Fitbit. This device gathers people’s daily activities of food, weight, sleep, heart rate, and physical activities. In this paper, four major stressors like physical activities, sleep patterns, working hours and change in heart rate are used to assess the stress levels of individuals. The main motive of this system is to use machine learning approach in stress detection with the help of Smartphone sensor technology. Individually, the effect of each stressor is evaluated using logistic regression and then combined model is built and assessed using variants of ordinal logistic regression models like logit, probit and complementary log-log. Then the quality of each model is evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and probit is assessed as the more suitable model for our dataset. This system is experimented and evaluated in a real time environment by taking data from adults working in IT and other sectors in India. The novelty of this work lies in the fact that stress detection system should be less invasive as possible for the users.

Keywords: physical activity tracker, sleep pattern, working hours, heart rate, smartphone sensor

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Mulugeta Fola, Mengistu Ketema, Kumilachew Alamerie

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Watershed provides vast economic benefits within and beyond the management area of interest. But most watersheds in Ethiopia are increasingly facing the threats of degradation due to both natural and man-made causes. To reverse these problems, communities’ participation in sustainable management programs is among the necessary measures. Hence, this study assessed the households’ willingness to pay for watershed management practices through a contingent valuation study approach. Double bounded dichotomous choice with open-ended follow-up format was used to elicit the households’ willingness to pay. Based on data collected from 275 randomly selected households, descriptive statistics results indicated that most households (79.64%) were willing to pay for watershed management practices. A bivariate Probit model was employed to identify determinants of households’ willingness to pay and estimate mean willingness to pay. Its result shows that age, gender, income, livestock size, perception of watershed degradation, social position, and offered bids were important variables affecting willingness to pay for watershed management practices. The study also revealed that the mean willingness to pay for watershed management practices was calculated to be 58.41 Birr and 47.27 Birr per year from the double bounded and open-ended format, respectively. The study revealed that the aggregate welfare gains from watershed management practices were calculated to be 931581.09 Birr and 753909.23 Birr per year from double bounded dichotomous choice and open-ended format, respectively. Therefore, the policymakers should make households to pay for the services of watershed management practices in the study area.

Keywords: bivariate probit model, contingent valuation, watershed management practices, willingness to pay

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Authors: J. Leige Lopes, L. Aparecida Bastos, R. Monteiro da Silva

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The objective of this paper is to study the work of children and adolescents and the vicious circle of poverty from the perspective of Guinar Myrdal’s Theory of Circular Cumulative Causation. The objective is to show that if a person starts working in the juvenile phase of life they will be classified as poor or extremely poor when they are adult, which can to be observed in the case of Brazil, more specifically in the north and northeast. To do this, the methodology used was statistical and econometric analysis by applying a probit model. The main results show that: if people reside in the northeastern region of Brazil, and if they have a low educational level and if they start their professional life before the age 18, they will increase the likelihood that they will be poor or extremely poor. There is a consensus in the literature that one of the causes of the intergenerational transmission of poverty is related to child labor, this because when one starts their professional life while still in the toddler or adolescence stages of life, they end up sacrificing their studies. Because of their low level of education, children or adolescents are forced to perform low-paid functions and abandon school, becoming in the future, people who will be classified as poor or extremely poor. As a result of poverty, parents may be forced to send their children out to work when they are young, so that in the future they will also become poor adults, a process that is characterized as the "vicious circle of poverty."

Keywords: children, adolescents, Gunnar Myrdal, poverty, vicious circle

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Chia-Hau Liu, Tai-Yue Wang

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Traditional multivariate control charts assume that measurement from manufacturing processes follows a multivariate normal distribution. However, this assumption may not hold or may be difficult to verify because not all the measurement from manufacturing processes are normal distributed in practice. This study develops a new multivariate control chart for monitoring the processes with non-normal data. We propose a mechanism based on integrating the one-class classification method and the adaptive technique. The adaptive technique is used to improve the sensitivity to small shift on one-class classification in statistical process control. In addition, this design provides an easy way to allocate the value of type I error so it is easier to be implemented. Finally, the simulation study and the real data from industry are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose control charts.

Keywords: multivariate control chart, statistical process control, one-class classification method, non-normal data

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Authors: P. V. Pramila , V. Mahesh

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Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients esulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF 25, PEF,FEF 25-75, FEF50, and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF 25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects). It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV, multivariate adaptive regression splines pulmonary function test, random forest

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Authors: Asmaa M. Hussein, Amr Wassal, Ahmed Farouk Al-Sadek, A. F. Abd El-Rahman

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In this study, a multivariate analysis of potato spectroscopic data was presented to detect the presence of brown rot disease or not. Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (1,350-2,500 nm) combined with multivariate analysis was used as a rapid, non-destructive technique for the detection of brown rot disease in potatoes. Spectral measurements were performed in 565 samples, which were chosen randomly at the infection place in the potato slice. In this study, 254 infected and 311 uninfected (brown rot-free) samples were analyzed using different advanced statistical analysis techniques. The discrimination performance of different multivariate analysis techniques, including classification, pre-processing, and dimension reduction, were compared. Applying a random forest algorithm classifier with different pre-processing techniques to raw spectra had the best performance as the total classification accuracy of 98.7% was achieved in discriminating infected potatoes from control.

Keywords: Brown rot disease, NIR spectroscopy, potato, random forest

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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Authors: Pascal Mwenge, Tumisang Seodigeng

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The combination of world population and the third industrial revolution led to high demand for fuels. On the other hand, the decrease of global fossil 8fuels deposits and the environmental air pollution caused by these fuels has compounded the challenges the world faces due to its need for energy. Therefore, new forms of environmentally friendly and renewable fuels such as biodiesel are needed. The primary analytical techniques for methanolysis yield monitoring have been chromatography and spectroscopy, these methods have been proven reliable but are more demanding, costly and do not provide real-time monitoring. In this work, the in situ monitoring of biodiesel from sunflower oil using FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) has been studied; the study was performed using EasyMax Mettler Toledo reactor equipped with a DiComp (Diamond) probe. The quantitative monitoring of methanolysis was performed by building a quantitative model with multivariate calibration using iC Quant module from iC IR 7.0 software. 15 samples of known concentrations were used for the modelling which were taken in duplicate for model calibration and cross-validation, data were pre-processed using mean centering and variance scale, spectrum math square root and solvent subtraction. These pre-processing methods improved the performance indexes from 7.98 to 0.0096, 11.2 to 3.41, 6.32 to 2.72, 0.9416 to 0.9999, RMSEC, RMSECV, RMSEP and R2Cum, respectively. The R² value of 1 (training), 0.9918 (test), 0.9946 (cross-validation) indicated the fitness of the model built. The model was tested against univariate model; small discrepancies were observed at low concentration due to unmodelled intermediates but were quite close at concentrations above 18%. The software eliminated the complexity of the Partial Least Square (PLS) chemometrics. It was concluded that the model obtained could be used to monitor methanol of sunflower oil at industrial and lab scale.

Keywords: biodiesel, calibration, chemometrics, methanolysis, multivariate analysis, transesterification, FTIR

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Authors: Edokpa Idemudia Waziri, Salisu S. Umar

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The Hotellng’s T^2 is a well-known statistic for detecting a shift in the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. Control charts based on T have been widely used in statistical process control for monitoring a multivariate process. Although it is a powerful tool, the T statistic is deficient when the shift to be detected in the mean vector of a multivariate process is small and consistent. The Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart is one of the control statistics used to overcome the drawback of the Hotellng’s T statistic. In this paper, the probability distribution of the Average Run Length (ARL) of the MEWMA control chart when the quality characteristics exhibit substantial cross correlation and when the process is in-control and out-of-control was derived using the Markov Chain algorithm. The derivation of the probability functions and the moments of the run length distribution were also obtained and they were consistent with some existing results for the in-control and out-of-control situation. By simulation process, the procedure identified a class of ARL for the MEWMA control when the process is in-control and out-of-control. From our study, it was observed that the MEWMA scheme is quite adequate for detecting a small shift and a good way to improve the quality of goods and services in a multivariate situation. It was also observed that as the in-control average run length ARL0¬ or the number of variables (p) increases, the optimum value of the ARL0pt increases asymptotically and as the magnitude of the shift σ increases, the optimal ARLopt decreases. Finally, we use the example from the literature to illustrate our method and demonstrate its efficiency.

Keywords: average run length, markov chain, multivariate exponentially weighted moving average, optimal smoothing parameter

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: Behrooz Khalilloo, Hamid Shahriari, Emad Roghanian

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Process capability indices (PCIs) are important concepts of statistical quality control and measure the capability of processes and how much processes are meeting certain specifications. An important issue in statistical quality control is parameter estimation. Under the assumption of multivariate normality, the distribution parameters, mean vector and variance-covariance matrix must be estimated, when they are unknown. Classic estimation methods like method of moment estimation (MME) or maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) makes good estimation of the population parameters when data are not contaminated. But when outliers exist in the data, MME and MLE make weak estimators of the population parameters. So we need some estimators which have good estimation in the presence of outliers. In this work robust M-estimators for estimating these parameters are used and based on robust parameter estimators, robust process capability indices are introduced. The performances of these robust estimators in the presence of outliers and their effects on process capability indices are evaluated by real and simulated multivariate data. The results indicate that the proposed robust capability indices perform much better than the existing process capability indices.

Keywords: multivariate process capability indices, robust M-estimator, outlier, multivariate quality control, statistical quality control

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Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Noha Ibrahim, Eman S. Elzanfaly, Said A. Hassan, Ahmed E. El Gendy

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Objectives: The purpose of the study is to develop a sensitive synchronous spectrofluorimetric method with multivariate calibration after studying and optimizing the different variables affecting the native fluorescence intensity of amlodipine and olmesartan implementing an experimental design approach. Method: In the first step, the fractional factorial design used to screen independent factors affecting the intensity of both drugs. The objective of the second step was to optimize the method performance using a Central Composite Face-centred (CCF) design. The optimal experimental conditions obtained from this study were; a temperature of (15°C ± 0.5), the solvent of 0.05N HCl and methanol with a ratio of (90:10, v/v respectively), Δλ of 42 and the addition of 1.48 % surfactant providing a sensitive measurement of amlodipine and olmesartan. The resolution of the binary mixture with a multivariate calibration method has been accomplished mainly by using partial least squares (PLS) model. Results: The recovery percentage for amlodipine besylate and atorvastatin calcium in tablets dosage form were found to be (102 ± 0.24, 99.56 ± 0.10, for amlodipine and Olmesartan, respectively). Conclusion: Method is valid according to some International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) guidelines, providing to be linear over a range of 200-300, 500-1500 ng mL⁻¹ for amlodipine and Olmesartan. The methods were successful to estimate amlodipine besylate and olmesartan in bulk powder and pharmaceutical preparation.

Keywords: amlodipine, central composite face-centred design, experimental design, fractional factorial design, multivariate calibration, olmesartan

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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Authors: Yuyang Cheng, Marcos Escobar-Anel

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This paper introduces a multivariate 4/2 stochastic covariance process generalizing the one-dimensional counterparts presented in Grasselli (2017). Our construction permits stochastic correlation not only among stocks but also among volatilities, also known as co-volatility movements, both driven by more convenient 4/2 stochastic structures. The parametrization is flexible enough to separate these types of correlation, permitting their individual study. Conditions for proper changes of measure and closed-form characteristic functions under risk-neutral and historical measures are provided, allowing for applications of the model to risk management and derivative pricing. We apply the model to an expected utility theory problem in incomplete markets. Our analysis leads to closed-form solutions for the optimal allocation and value function. Conditions are provided for well-defined solutions together with a verification theorem. Our numerical analysis highlights and separates the impact of key statistics on equity portfolio decisions, in particular, volatility, correlation, and co-volatility movements, with the latter being the least important in an incomplete market.

Keywords: stochastic covariance process, 4/2 stochastic volatility model, stochastic co-volatility movements, characteristic function, expected utility theory, verication theorem

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Authors: Francky Fouedjio

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Multivariate geostatistical data have become omnipresent in the geosciences and pose substantial analysis challenges. One of them is the grouping of data locations into spatially contiguous clusters so that data locations within the same cluster are more similar while clusters are different from each other, in some sense. Spatially contiguous clusters can significantly improve the interpretation that turns the resulting clusters into meaningful geographical subregions. In this paper, we develop an agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach that takes into account the spatial dependency between observations. It relies on a dissimilarity matrix built from a non-parametric kernel estimator of the spatial dependence structure of data. It integrates existing methods to find the optimal cluster number and to evaluate the contribution of variables to the clustering. The capability of the proposed approach to provide spatially compact, connected and meaningful clusters is assessed using bivariate synthetic dataset and multivariate geochemical dataset. The proposed clustering method gives satisfactory results compared to other similar geostatistical clustering methods.

Keywords: clustering, geostatistics, multivariate data, non-parametric

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Authors: Nulu Nanono

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Background: The Ugandan national health policy and the national population policy all recognize the need to increase access to quality, affordable, acceptable and sustainable contraceptive services for all people but provision and utilization of quality services remains low. Two contraceptive methods are categorized as long-acting temporary methods: intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCDs) and implants. Copper-containing IUCDs, generally available in Ministry of Health (MoH) family planning programs and is effective for at least 12 years while Implants, depending on the type, last for up to three to seven years. Uganda’s current policy and political environment are favorable towards achieving national access to quality and safe contraceptives for all people as evidenced by increasing government commitments and innovative family planning programs. Despite the increase of modern contraception use from 14% to 26%, long acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) utilization has relatively remained low with less than 5% using IUDs & Implants which in a way explains Uganda’s persistent high fertility rates. Main question/hypothesis: The purpose of the study was to examine relationship between the demographic, socio-economic characteristics of women, health facility factors and long acting reversible contraception utilization. Methodology: LARC utilization was investigated comprising of the two questions namely are you or your partner currently doing something or using any method to delay or avoid getting pregnant? And which method or methods are you using? Data for the study was sourced from the 2016 Uganda Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 Survey comprising of 3816 female respondents aged 15 to 49 years. The analysis was done using the Chi-squared tests and the probit regression at bivariate and multivariate levels respectively. The model was further tested for validity and normality of the residuals using the Sharipo wilks test and test for kurtosis and skewness. Results: The results showed the model the age, parity, marital status, region, knowledge of LARCs, availability of LARCs to be significantly associated with long acting contraceptive utilization with p value of less than 0.05. At the multivariate analysis level, women who had higher parities (0.000) tertiary education (0.013), no knowledge about LARCs (0.006) increases their probability of using LARCs. Furthermore while women age 45-49, those who live in the eastern region reduces their probability of using LARCs. Knowledge contribution: The findings of this study join the debate of prior research in this field and add to the body of knowledge related to long acting reversible contraception. An outstanding and queer finding from the study is the non-utilization of LARCs by women who are aware and have knowledge about them, this may be an opportunity for further research to investigate the attribution to this.

Keywords: contraception, long acting, utilization, women (15-49)

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Authors: O. Ikpotokin

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In any production process, every product is aimed to attain a certain standard, but the presence of assignable cause of variability affects our process, thereby leading to low quality of product. The ability to identify and remove this type of variability reduces its overall effect, thereby improving the quality of the product. In case of a univariate control chart signal, it is easy to detect the problem and give a solution since it is related to a single quality characteristic. However, the problems involved in the use of multivariate control chart are the violation of multivariate normal assumption and the difficulty in identifying the quality characteristic(s) that resulted in the out of control signals. The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of non-parametric control chart (the bootstrap approach) for obtaining control limit to overcome the problem of multivariate distributional assumption and the p-value method for detecting out of control signals. Results from a performance study show that the proposed bootstrap method enables the setting of control limit that can enhance the detection of out of control signals when compared, while the p-value method also enhanced in identifying out of control variables.

Keywords: bootstrap control limit, p-value method, out-of-control signals, p-value, quality characteristics

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Kirill Filianin, Satu-Pia Reinikainen, Tuomo Sainio

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Frequent measurements of product steam quality create a data overload that becomes more and more difficult to handle. In the current study, plant history data with multiple variables was successfully treated by principal component analysis to detect abnormal process behavior, particularly, in copper solvent extraction. The multivariate model is based on the concentration levels of main process metals recorded by the industrial on-stream x-ray fluorescence analyzer. After mean-centering and normalization of concentration data set, two-dimensional multivariate model under principal component analysis algorithm was constructed. Normal operating conditions were defined through control limits that were assigned to squared score values on x-axis and to residual values on y-axis. 80 percent of the data set were taken as the training set and the multivariate model was tested with the remaining 20 percent of data. Model testing showed successful application of control limits to detect abnormal behavior of copper solvent extraction process as early warnings. Compared to the conventional techniques of analyzing one variable at a time, the proposed model allows to detect on-line a process failure using information from all process variables simultaneously. Complex industrial equipment combined with advanced mathematical tools may be used for on-line monitoring both of process streams’ composition and final product quality. Defining normal operating conditions of the process supports reliable decision making in a process control room. Thus, industrial x-ray fluorescence analyzers equipped with integrated data processing toolbox allows more flexibility in copper plant operation. The additional multivariate process control and monitoring procedures are recommended to apply separately for the major components and for the impurities. Principal component analysis may be utilized not only in control of major elements’ content in process streams, but also for continuous monitoring of plant feed. The proposed approach has a potential in on-line instrumentation providing fast, robust and cheap application with automation abilities.

Keywords: abnormal process behavior, failure detection, principal component analysis, solvent extraction

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Authors: K. A. Bindu, T. V. Raja, P. M. Rojan, A. Siby

Abstract:

The multivariate path coefficient approach was employed to study the effects of various production and reproduction traits on the slaughter body weight of rabbits. Information on 562 rabbits maintained at the university rabbit farm attached to the Centre for Advanced Studies in Animal Genetics, and Breeding, Kerala Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Kerala State, India was utilized. The manifest variables used in the study were age and weight of dam, birth weight, litter size at birth and weaning, weight at first, second and third months. The linear multiple regression analysis was performed by keeping the slaughter weight as the dependent variable and the remaining as independent variables. The model explained 48.60 percentage of the total variation present in the market weight of the rabbits. Even though the model used was significant, the standardized beta coefficients for the independent variables viz., age and weight of the dam, birth weight and litter sizes at birth and weaning were less than one indicating their negligible influence on the slaughter weight. However, the standardized beta coefficient of the second-month body weight was maximum followed by the first-month weight indicating their major role on the market weight. All the other factors influence indirectly only through these two variables. Hence it was concluded that the slaughter body weight can be predicted using the first and second-month body weights. The principal components were also developed so as to achieve more accuracy in the prediction of market weight of rabbits.

Keywords: component analysis, multivariate, slaughter, regression

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Authors: A. Clementking, C. Jothi Venkateswaran

Abstract:

Mathematical and computational functionalities such as descriptive mining, optimization, and predictions are espoused to resolve natural resource planning. The water quality prediction and its attributes influence determinations are adopted optimization techniques. The water properties are tainted while merging water resource one with another. This work aimed to predict influencing water resource distribution connectivity in accordance to water quality and sediment using an innovative proposed master-slave neural network back-propagation model. The experiment results are arrived through collecting water quality attributes, computation of water quality index, design and development of neural network model to determine water quality and sediment, master–slave back propagation neural network back-propagation model to determine variations on water quality and sediment attributes between the water resources and the recommendation for connectivity. The homogeneous and parallel biochemical reactions are influences water quality and sediment while distributing water from one location to another. Therefore, an innovative master-slave neural network model [M (9:9:2)::S(9:9:2)] designed and developed to predict the attribute variations. The result of training dataset given as an input to master model and its maximum weights are assigned as an input to the slave model to predict the water quality. The developed master-slave model is predicted physicochemical attributes weight variations for 85 % to 90% of water quality as a target values.The sediment level variations also predicated from 0.01 to 0.05% of each water quality percentage. The model produced the significant variations on physiochemical attribute weights. According to the predicated experimental weight variation on training data set, effective recommendations are made to connect different resources.

Keywords: master-slave back propagation neural network model(MSBPNNM), water quality analysis, multivariate analysis, environmental mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 478

Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

Abstract:

The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

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Authors: Jia Li, Huacong Li, Xiaobao Han

Abstract:

Due to the more variable geometry parameters of VCE (variable cycle aircraft engine), presents an adaptive controller method based on the full-state linear model of VCE and has simulated to solve the multivariate controller design problem of the whole flight envelops. First, analyzes the static and dynamic performances of bypass ratio and other state parameters caused by variable geometric components, and develops nonlinear component model of VCE. Then based on the component model, through small deviation linearization of main fuel (Wf), the area of tail nozzle throat (A8) and the angle of rear bypass ejector (A163), setting up multiple linear model which variable geometric parameters can be inputs. Second, designs the adaptive controllers for VCE linear models of different nominal points. Among them, considering of modeling uncertainties and external disturbances, derives the adaptive law by lyapunov function. The simulation results showed that, the adaptive controller method based on full-state linear model used the angle of rear bypass ejector as input and effectively solved the multivariate control problems of VCE. The performance of all nominal points could track the desired closed-loop reference instructions. The adjust time was less than 1.2s, and the system overshoot was less than 1%, at the same time, the errors of steady states were less than 0.5% and the dynamic tracking errors were less than 1%. In addition, the designed controller could effectively suppress interference and reached the desired commands with different external random noise signals.

Keywords: variable cycle engine (VCE), full-state linear model, adaptive control, by-pass ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: J. J. Vargas, N. Prieto, L. A. Toro

Abstract:

Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, DEA, Multivariate control chart, rejection simulation method

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 534