Search results for: statistical simulation

Authors: Maria Anjelica P. Ancheta, Roberto S. Soriano, Erickson L. Llaguno

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The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a significant relationship between socio-economic class and household water supply demand, through determining or verifying the factors governing water use consumption patterns of households from a sampling from different socio-economic classes in Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines. This study is also an opportunity to augment the lack of local academic literature due to the very few publications on urban household water demand after 1999. In over 600 Metro Manila households, a rapid survey was conducted on their average monthly water consumption and habits on household water usage. The questions in the rapid survey were based on an extensive review of literature on urban household water demand. Sample households were divided into socio-economic classes A-B and C-D. Cluster analysis, dummy coding and outlier tests were done to prepare the data for regression analysis. Subsequently, backward stepwise regression analysis was used in order to determine different statistical models to describe the determinants of water consumption. The key finding of this study is that the socio-economic class of a household in Metro Manila is a significant factor in water consumption. A-B households consume more water in contrast to C-D families based on the mean average water consumption for A-B and C-D households are 36.75 m3 and 18.92 m3, respectively. The most significant proxy factors of socio-economic class that were related to household water consumption were examined in order to suggest improvements in policy formulation and household water demand management.

Keywords: household water uses, socio-economic classes, urban planning, urban water demand management

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Authors: Wei Zheng, Mao Ji, Zhe Hou, Meng Huang, Bo Qi

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The transformer is the key equipment of the power system. Winding deformation is one of the main transformer defects, and timely and effective detection of the transformer winding deformation can ensure the safe and stable operation of the transformer to the maximum extent. When winding deformation occurs, the size, shape and spatial position of the winding will change, which directly leads to the change of magnetic flux leakage distribution. Therefore, it is promising to study the online detection method of the transformer winding deformation based on magnetic flux leakage characteristics, in which the key step is to study the optimal placement method of magnetic flux leakage sensors inside the transformer. In this paper, a simulation model of the transformer winding deformation is established to obtain the internal magnetic flux leakage distribution of the transformer under normal operation and different winding deformation conditions, and the law of change of magnetic flux leakage distribution due to winding deformation is analyzed. The results show that different winding deformation leads to different characteristics of the magnetic flux leakage distribution. On this basis, an optimized placement of magnetic flux leakage sensors inside the transformer is proposed to provide a basis for the online detection method of transformer winding deformation based on the magnetic flux leakage characteristics.

Keywords: magnetic flux leakage, sensor placement method, transformer, winding deformation

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Authors: Mrinal Kanti Bhowmik, Kakali Das Jr., Barin Kumar De, Debotosh Bhattacharjee

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Breast cancer is the most common cancer and a leading cause of death for women in the 35 to 55 age group. Early detection of breast cancer can decrease the mortality rate of breast cancer. Mammography is considered as a ‘Gold Standard’ for breast cancer detection and a very popular modality, presently used for breast cancer screening and detection. The screening of digital mammograms often leads to over diagnosis and a consequence to unnecessary traumatic & painful biopsies. For that reason recent studies involving the use of thermal imaging as a screening technique have generated a growing interest especially in cases where the mammography is limited, as in young patients who have dense breast tissue. Tumor is a significant sign of breast cancer in both mammography and thermography. The tumors are complex in structure and they also exhibit a different statistical and textural features compared to the breast background tissue. Fractal geometry is a geometry which is used to describe this type of complex structure as per their main characteristic, where traditional Euclidean geometry fails. Over the last few years, fractal geometrics have been applied mostly in many medical image (1D, 2D, or 3D) analysis applications. In breast cancer detection using digital mammogram images, also it plays a significant role. Fractal is also used in thermography for early detection of the masses using the thermal texture. This paper presents an overview of the recent aspects and initiatives of fractals in breast cancer detection in both mammography and thermography. The scope of fractal geometry in automatic breast cancer detection using digital mammogram and thermogram images are analysed, which forms a foundation for further study on application of fractal geometry in medical imaging for improving the efficiency of automatic detection.

Keywords: fractal, tumor, thermography, mammography

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Authors: Ashwini Shripatwar, Mayur Biyani, Nikhil Rao, Rajendra Bodake, Sachin Sane

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This paper documents the correlation of valve cover sealing, cracking, and warpage Finite Element Modelling with observations on engine test development. The valve cover is a component mounted on engine head with a gasket which provides sealing against oil which flows around camshaft, valves, rockers, and other overhead components. Material nonlinearity and contact nonlinearity characteristics are taken into consideration because the valve cover is made of a composite material having temperature dependent elastic-plastic properties and because the gasket load-deformation curve is also nonlinear. The leakage is observed between the valve cover and the engine head due to the insufficient contact pressure. The crack is observed on the valve cover due to force application at a region with insufficient stiffness and with elevated temperature. The valve cover shrinkage is observed during the disassembly process on hot exhaust side bolt holes after the engine has been running. In this paper, an analytical approach is developed to correlate a Finite Element Model with the observed failures and to address the design issues associated with the failure modes in question by making design changes in the model.

Keywords: cracking issue, gasket sealing analysis, nonlinearity of contact and material, valve cover

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Authors: L. Grinis

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Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.

Keywords: open channel, physical modeling, baffles, turbulent flow

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Authors: S. J. Shahidzadeh Tabatabaei, A. M. Fattahi

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Modal analysis of a FGM plate containing the ceramic phase of Al₂O₃ and metal phase of stainless steel 304 was performed using ABAQUS, with the assumptions that the material has an elastic mechanical behavior and its Young modulus and density are varying in thickness direction. For this purpose, a subroutine was written in FOTRAN and linked with ABAQUS. First, a simulation was performed in accordance to other researcher’s model, and then after comparing the obtained results, the accuracy of the present study was verified. The obtained results for natural frequency and mode shapes indicate good performance of user-written subroutine as well as FEM model used in present study. After verification of obtained results, the effect of clamping condition and the material type (i.e. the parameter n) was investigated. In this respect, finite element analysis was carried out in fully clamped condition for different values of n. The results indicate that the natural frequency decreases with increase of n, since with increase of n, the amount of ceramic phase in FGM plate decreases, while the amount of metal phase increases, leading to decrease of the plate stiffness and hence, natural frequency, as the Young modulus of Al₂O₃ is equal to 380 GPa and the Young modulus of stainless steel 304 is equal to 207 GPa.

Keywords: FGM plates, modal analysis, natural frequency, finite element method

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Authors: U. Tumaini, J. Msuya

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Food insecurity is a worrying challenge worldwide with sub-Saharan Africa including Tanzania being the most affected. Although factors that influence household food access security status and ways of coping with such factors have been examined, little has been reported on how these coping strategies vary along the urban-rural continuum especially in medium-sized towns. The purpose of this study was to identify food insecurity coping strategies employed by households and assess whether they are similar along the urban-rural continuum. The study was cross-sectional in design whereby a random sample of 279 households was interviewed using structured questionnaire. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 20 software. It was revealed that the proportion of households relying on less preferred and quality foods, eating fewer meals per day, undertaking work for food or money, performing farm and off-farm activities, and selling fall back assets was higher in rural settings compared to urban and peri-urban areas. Similarly, more households in urban and peri-urban areas cope with food access insecurity by having strict food budgets compared to those in rural households (p ≤ 0.001). The study concludes that food insecurity coping strategies vary significantly from one spatial entity to another. It is thereby recommended that poor, particularly rural households should be supported to diversify their income-generating activities not only for food security purposes during times of food shortage but also as businesses aimed at increasing their household incomes.

Keywords: food coping strategies, household food insecurity, medium-sized towns, urban-rural continuum

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Authors: Maria Viktoria Melgo

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This study aimed to determine the possible association between calcium intake and wealth indices of selected female adults. Specifically, it aimed to: a) determine the calcium intake adequacy of the respondents. b) determine the relationship, if any, between calcium intake adequacy, area and wealth indices. The study used the survey design and employed convenience sampling in selecting participants. Two hundred females aged 20 – 64 years old were covered in the study from depressed and non-depressed areas. Data collected were calcium intake taken from two 24-hour food recall and Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and wealth indices using housing characteristics, household assets and access to utilities and infrastructure. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square test were used to determine the frequency distribution and association between the given variables, respectively, using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and OpenEpi software. The results showed that there were 86% of respondents in the depressed area with an inadequate calcium intake while there were 78% of respondents in the non-depressed area with an adequate calcium intake. No significant relationship was obtained in most wealth indices with calcium intake adequacy and area but appliance and ownership of main material of the house showed a significant relationship to calcium intake adequacy by area. The study recommends that the Local Government Unit (LGU) should provide seminars or nutrition education that will further enhance the knowledge of the people in the community. The study also recommends to conduct a similar study but with different, larger sample size, different location nonetheless if it is in urban or rural and include the anthropometry measurement of the respondents.

Keywords: association, calcium intake adequacy, metro Manila, Philippines, wealth indices

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Authors: Mohammad Maeiyat, Ali Maeiyat Ivatlou, Rasul Fani Khiavi, Abouzar Maeiyat Ivatlou, Parya Maeiyat

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Purpose: Considering the fact that visual impairment is still one of the countries health problem, this study was conducted to determine the causes of blindness and low vision in visually impaired membership of Ardabil Province welfare organization. Methods: The present study which was based on descriptive and national-census, that carried out in visually impaired population supported by welfare organization in all urban and rural areas of Ardabil Province in 2013 and Collection of samples lasted for 7 months. The subjects were inspected by optometrist to determine their visual status (blindness or low vision) and then referred to ophthalmologist in order to discover the main causes of visual impairment based on the international classification of diseases version 10. Statistical analysis of collected data was performed using SPSS software version 18. Results: Overall, 403 subjects with mean age of years participated in this study. 73.2% were blind, 26.8 % were low vision and according gender grouping 60.50 % of them were male, 39.50 % were female that divided into three groups with the age level of lower than 15 (11.2%) 15 to 49 (76.7%), and 50 and higher (12.1%). The age range was 1 to 78 years. The causes of blindness and low vision were in descending order: optic atrophy (18.4%), retinitis pigmentosa (16.8%), corneal diseases (12.4%), chorioretinal diseases (9.4%), cataract (8.9%), glaucoma (8.2%), phthisis bulbi (7.2%), degenerative myopia (6.9%), microphtalmos ( 4%), amblyopia (3.2%), albinism (2.5%) and nistagmus (2%). Conclusion: in this study the main causes of visual impairments were optic atrophy and retinitis pigmentosa, thus specific prevention plans can be effective in reducing the incidence of visual disabilities.

Keywords: blindness, low vision, welfare, ardabil

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Authors: Ester Ato, Maria Angeles Fernández-Vilar, Maria Dolores Galián

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The aim of this work was to analyze the relation between children´s effortful control, marital adjustment and parenting practices in a sample of 345 Spanish children aged between 6 and 8 years. Traditionally, the literature confirms that a higher level of marital conflict has been associated with less effective and less positive parenting, but there are few studies that include the effect that children´s effortful control exert to this relation. To measure marital adjustment, parenting practices and children’s temperament, parents were given the Marital Adjustment Test (MAT), the Spanish version of the PCRI (Parent-Child Relationship Inventory), and the TMCQ (Temperament in Middle Childhood Questionnaire). The results confirmed that higher marital satisfaction predicted more positive parenting practices, whereas lower marital adjustment scores predicted less parenting support and control. Using a statistical modeling approach, we tested a moderation model that revealed the moderating role of effortful control in the relation between marital adjustment and parenting. Concretely, higher marital satisfaction predicts higher parenting communication and involvement, but only in children with low levels of effortful control. Therefore, a difficult temperament interferes in a less negative way in the family system when parents are satisfied and united. And a better self-regulated child predicts more effective parenting practice regardless of the parents´ marital satisfaction. The clinical implications of the present findings should be considered. Specifically, difficult children must be detected and evaluated in community settings, such as school or community programs, in order to take into account the marital adjustment and parenting practices of their parents, and to be able to design adequate family interventions and prevent future pathologizing patterns.

Keywords: effortful control, marital adjustment, parenting, moderation

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Authors: Parvin Malhami

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The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of two functional and functional stretching methods of the leg muscles on a selection of kinematical and kinetic indicators among women with ankle instability. Twenty-four persons were targeted and randomly divided into the functional exercise (8 persons), extra-functional exercise (8 persons) and control (8 persons) groups on the basis of inclusion and exclusion criteria. The experimental groups received stretching for eight weeks, 3 sessions each week, and the control group merely performed its daily activities. Then, in order to measure the pre -test and post -test variables, the dorsi flexion, Plantar flexion and ground reaction force were investigated and measured. Data were analyzed using paired T-test and independent T-tests at a significant level of 0.05. All statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS 25 software. The results of the T-test showed the significant effect of eight weeks of functional and Extra functional exercises on dorsi Flexion, Plantar Flexion and ground reaction force. (P≤ 0/001). The results of this study showed that the implementation of the functional and Extra-functional exercise protocol had an impact on the amount of Ankle dorsi Flexion and the Plantar felxion of women with an ankle instability. It was also found that muscle flexibility following the stretch ability of the gastrocnemius muscles facilitates the walking of the wrist installation by affecting the amount of wrist flexion, so these people are recommended to use the functional and extra-functional exercise protocol.

Keywords: functional stretching, extra functional stretching, dorsi flexion, plantar flexion

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Authors: E. Ghasemi Ardi, K. J. Dong, A. B. Yu, R. Y. Yang

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In current work, a numerical model based on the discrete element method (DEM) was developed which provided information about particle dynamic and impact event condition inside a laboratory scale impact mill (Fritsch). It showed that each particle mostly experiences three impacts inside the mill. While the first impact frequently happens at front surface of the rotor’s rib, the frequent location of the second impact is side surfaces of the rotor’s rib. It was also showed that while the first impact happens at small impact angle mostly varying around 35º, the second impact happens at around 70º which is close to normal impact condition. Also analyzing impact energy revealed that varying mill speed from 6000 to 14000 rpm, the ratio of first impact’s average impact energy and minimum required energy to break particle (Wₘᵢₙ) increased from 0.30 to 0.85. Moreover, it was seen that second impact poses intense impact energy on particle which can be considered as the main cause of particle splitting. Finally, obtained information from DEM simulation along with obtained data from conducted experiments was implemented in semi-empirical equations in order to find selection and breakage functions. Then, using a back-calculation approach, those parameters were used to predict the PSDs of ground particles under different impact energies. Results were compared with experiment results and showed reasonable accuracy and prediction ability.

Keywords: single particle breakage, particle dynamic, population balance model, particle size distribution, discrete element method

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Authors: Swati Sharma, R. P. Sharma

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We intend to study the nonlinear evolution of the parallel propagating finite frequency Alfvén wave (also called Dispersive Alfvén wave/Hall MHD wave) propagating in the solar wind regime of the solar region when a perpendicularly propagating magnetosonic wave is present in the background. The finite frequency Alfvén wave behaves differently from the usual non-dispersive behavior of the Alfvén wave. To study the nonlinear processes (such as filamentation) taking place in the solar regions such as solar wind, the dynamical equation of both the waves are derived. Numerical simulation involving finite difference method for the time domain and pseudo spectral method for the spatial domain is then performed to analyze the transient evolution of these waves. The power spectra of the Dispersive Alfvén wave is also investigated. The power spectra shows the distribution of the magnetic field intensity of the Dispersive Alfvén wave over different wave numbers. For DAW the spectra shows a steepening for scales larger than the proton inertial length. This means that the wave energy gets transferred to the solar wind particles as the wave reaches higher wave numbers. This steepening of the power spectra can be explained on account of the finite frequency of the Alfvén wave. The obtained results are consistent with the observations made by CLUSTER spacecraft.

Keywords: solar wind, turbulence, dispersive alfven wave

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Authors: Shalini Priyadarshini

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The notion of performance measurement has held great appeal for the industry and research communities alike. This idea is also true for the construction sector, and some propose that performance measurement and productivity analysis are two separate management functions, where productivity is a subset of performance, the latter requiring comprehensive analysis of comparable factors. Labor productivity is considered one of the best indicators of production efficiency. The construction industry continues to account for a disproportionate share of injuries and illnesses despite adopting several technological and organizational interventions that promote worker safety. Specialty trades contractors typically complete a large fraction of work on any construction project, but insufficient body of work exists that address subcontractor safety and productivity issues. Literature review has revealed the possibility of a relation between productivity, safety and other factors and their links to project, organizational, task and industry performance. This research posits that there is an association between productivity and performance at project as well as organizational levels in the construction industry. Moreover, prior exploration of the importance of safety within the performance-productivity framework has been anecdotal at best. Using structured questionnaire survey and organization- and project level data, this study, which is a combination of cross-sectional and longitudinal research designs, addresses the identified research gap and models the relationship between productivity, safety, and performance with a focus on specialty trades in the construction sector. Statistical analysis is used to establish a correlation between the variables of interest. This research identifies the need for developing and maintaining productivity and safety logs for smaller businesses. Future studies can design and develop research to establish causal relationships between these variables.

Keywords: construction, safety, productivity, performance, specialty trades

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Authors: Ace Mari S. Simbajon, Rhaella J. Ybañez, Mae G. Nadela, Cherry E. Sagun, Nera Mae A. Puyo

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This study determined the usability of the Philippine banknotes. An experimental design was used in the study involving twenty (n=20) randomly selected blind participants. The three aspects of usability were measured: effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction. It was found out that the effectiveness rate of the current Philippine Banknotes ranges from 20 percent to 35 percent which means it is not effective basing from Cauro’s threshold of average effectiveness rate which is 78 percent. Its efficiency rate is ranging from 18.06 to 26.22 seconds per denomination. The average satisfaction rate is 1.45 which means the blind are very dissatisfied. These results were used as a guide in making the proposed tactile codification using embossed dots or embossed lines. A round of simulation was conducted with the blind to assess the usability of the two proposals. Results were then statistically treated using t-test. Results show statistically significant difference between the usability of the current banknotes versus the proposed designs. Moreover, it was found out that the use of embossed dots is more effective, more efficient, and more satisfying than the embossed lines with an effectiveness rate ranging from 90 percent to 100 percent, efficiency rate ranging from 6.73 seconds to 12.99 seconds, and satisfaction rate of 3.4 which means the blind are very satisfied.

Keywords: blind, Philippine banknotes, tactile codification, usability

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Authors: Shan Jia, Jinbao Chen, Jinhua Zhou, Jiacheng Qian

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In response to the functional limitations of the fixed landers, those are to expand the detection range by the use of wheeled rovers with unavoidable path-repeatability in deep space exploration currently, a movable lander based on the leg-foot walking mechanism is presented. Firstly, a quadruped landing mechanism based on pushrod-damping is proposed. The configuration is of the bionic characteristics such as hip, knee and ankle joints, and the multi-function main/auxiliary buffers based on the crumple-energy absorption and screw-nut mechanism. Secondly, the workspace of the end of the leg-foot mechanism is solved by Monte Carlo method, and the key points on the desired trajectory of the end of the leg-foot mechanism are fitted by cubic spline curve. Finally, an optimal time-jerk trajectory based on weight coefficient is planned and analyzed by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA). The simulation results prove the rationality and stability of walking motion of the movable leg-foot lander in the star catalogue. In addition, this research can also provide a technical solution integrating of soft-landing, large-scale inspection and material transfer for future star catalogue exploration, and can even serve as the technical basis for developing the reusable landers.

Keywords: motion performance, trajectory planning, movable, leg-foot lander

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Authors: Natasha Mandal, Rakesh Singh Moirangthem

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The present work reports a theoretical model to develop a plasmonic biosensor for the detection of glucose concentrations in human blood and urine as the abnormality of glucose label is the major cause of diabetes which becomes a life-threatening disease worldwide. This study is based on the surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensor applications which is a well-established, highly sensitive, label-free, rapid optical sensing tool. Here we have introduced a sandwich assay of two dielectric spacer layers of MgF2 and BaTiO3which gives better performance compared to commonly used SiO2 and TiO2 dielectric spacers due to their low dielectric loss and higher refractive index. The sensitivity of our proposed sensor was found as 3242 nm/RIU approximately, with an excellent linear response of 0.958, which is higher than the conventional single-layer Au SPR sensor. Further, the sensitivity enhancement is also optimized by coating a few layers of two-dimensional (2D) nanomaterials (e.g., Graphene, h-BN, MXene, MoS2, WS2, etc.) on the sensor chip. Hence, our proposed SPR sensor has the potential for the detection of glucose concentration in blood and urine with enhanced sensitivity and high affinity and could be utilized as a reliable platform for the optical biosensing application in the field of medical diagnosis.

Keywords: biosensor, surface plasmon resonance, dielectric spacer, 2D nanomaterials

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Authors: Waziralilah N. Fathiah, A. Aminudin, U. Alyaa Hashim, T. Vikneshvaran D. Shakirah Shukor

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This paper presents the experimental analysis conducted on a structure borne noise in a rectangular enclosure prototype made by joining of sheet aluminum metal and plywood. The study is significant as many did not realized the annoyance caused by structural borne-noise. In this study, modal analysis is carried out to seek the structure’s behaviour in order to identify the characteristics of enclosure in frequency domain ranging from 0 Hz to 200 Hz. Here, numbers of modes are identified and the characteristic of mode shape is categorized. Modal experiment is used to diagnose the structural behaviour while microphone is used to diagnose the sound. Spectral testing is performed on the enclosure. It is acoustically excited using shaker and as it vibrates, the vibrational and noise responses sensed by tri-axis accelerometer and microphone sensors are recorded respectively. Experimental works is performed on each node lies on the gridded surface of the enclosure. Both experimental measurement is carried out simultaneously. The modal experimental results of the modal modes are validated by simulation performed using MSC Nastran software. In pursuance of reducing the structure borne-noise, mitigation method is used whereby the stiffener plates are perpendicularly placed on the sheet aluminum metal. By using this method, reduction in structure borne-noise is successfully made at the end of the study.

Keywords: enclosure, modal analysis, sound analysis, structure borne-noise

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Authors: Alexandros Pournaras, Anastasia Papadopoulou, Serafim Kontos, Anastasios Karakostas

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The air quality of modern cities is an important concern, as poor air quality contributes to human health and environmental issues. Reliable air quality forecasting has, thus, gained scientific and governmental attention as an essential tool that enables authorities to take proactive measures for public safety. In this study, the potential of Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast PM2.5 at local scale is investigated in the city of Thessaloniki, the second largest city in Greece, which has been struggling with the persistent issue of air pollution. ML models, with proven ability to address timeseries forecasting, are employed to predict the PM2.5 concentrations and the respective Air Quality Index 5-days ahead by learning from daily historical air quality and meteorological data from 2014 to 2016 and gathered from two stations with different land use characteristics in the urban fabric of Thessaloniki. The performance of the ML models on PM2.5 concentrations is evaluated with common statistical methods, such as R squared (r²) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), utilizing a portion of the stations’ measurements as test set. A multi-categorical evaluation is utilized for the assessment of their performance on respective AQIs. Several conclusions were made from the experiments conducted. Experimenting on MLs’ configuration revealed a moderate effect of various parameters and training schemas on the model’s predictions. Their performance of all these models were found to produce satisfactory results on PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, their application on untrained stations showed that these models can perform well, indicating a generalized behavior. Moreover, their performance on AQI was even better, showing that the MLs can be used as predictors for AQI, which is the direct information provided to the general public.

Keywords: Air Quality, AQ Forecasting, AQI, Machine Learning, PM2.5

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Sizar Abed Mohammed, Zahraa Ghazi Sadeeq

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The use of the classic method, least squares (OLS) to estimate the linear regression parameters, when they are available assumptions, and capabilities that have good characteristics, such as impartiality, minimum variance, consistency, and so on. The development of alternative statistical techniques to estimate the parameters, when the data are contaminated with outliers. These are powerful methods (or resistance). In this paper, three of robust methods are studied, which are: Maximum likelihood type estimate M-estimator, Modified Maximum likelihood type estimate MM-estimator and Least Trimmed Squares LTS-estimator, and their results are compared with OLS method. These methods applied to real data taken from Duhok company for manufacturing furniture, the obtained results compared by using the criteria: Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Sum of Absolute Error (MSAE). Important conclusions that this study came up with are: a number of typical values detected by using four methods in the furniture line and very close to the data. This refers to the fact that close to the normal distribution of standard errors, but typical values in the doors line data, using OLS less than that detected by the powerful ways. This means that the standard errors of the distribution are far from normal departure. Another important conclusion is that the estimated values of the parameters by using the lifeline is very far from the estimated values using powerful methods for line doors, gave LTS- destined better results using standard MSE, and gave the M- estimator better results using standard MAPE. Moreover, we noticed that using standard MSAE, and MM- estimator is better. The programs S-plus (version 8.0, professional 2007), Minitab (version 13.2) and SPSS (version 17) are used to analyze the data.

Keywords: Robest, LTS, M estimate, MSE

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Authors: Agung Budi Muljono, I Made Ginarsa, I Made Ari Nrartha

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A large-scale power system (LSPS) consists of two or more sub-systems connected by inter-connecting transmission. Loading pattern on an LSPS always changes from time to time and varies depend on consumer need. The serious instability problem is appeared in an LSPS due to load fluctuation in all of the bus. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based power system stabilizer (PSS) is presented to cover the stability problem and to enhance the stability of an LSPS. The ANFIS control is presented because the ANFIS control is more effective than Mamdani fuzzy control in the computation aspect. Simulation results show that the presented PSS is able to maintain the stability by decreasing peak overshoot to the value of −2.56 × 10−5 pu for rotor speed deviation Δω2−3. The presented PSS also makes the settling time to achieve at 3.78 s on local mode oscillation. Furthermore, the presented PSS is able to improve the peak overshoot and settling time of Δω3−9 to the value of −0.868 × 10−5 pu and at the time of 3.50 s for inter-area oscillation.

Keywords: ANFIS, large-scale, power system, PSS, stability enhancement

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Authors: Mu-Yen Chen, Min-Hsuan Fan, Chia-Chen Chen, Siang-Yu Jhong

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In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate, affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore, scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect, and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation. The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Taguchi method, real estate valuation model, investors

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Authors: K. Shaji Mon, P. R. John Sreenidhi

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In deep-submicrometer CMOS processes, time-domain resolution of a digital signal is becoming higher than voltage resolution of analog signals. This claim is nowadays pushing toward a new circuit design paradigm in which the traditional analog signal processing is expected to be progressively substituted by the processing of times in the digital domain. Within this novel paradigm, digitally controlled delay lines (DCDL) should play the role of digital-to-analog converters in traditional, analog-intensive, circuits. Digital delay locked loops are highly prevalent in integrated systems.The proposed paper addresses the glitches present in delay circuits along with area,power dissipation and signal integrity.The digitally controlled delay lines(DCDL) under study have been designed in a 90 nm CMOS technology 6 layer metal Copper Strained SiGe Low K Dielectric. Simulation and synthesis results show that the novel circuits exhibit no glitches for dual output coarse DCDL with less power dissipation and consumes less area compared to the glitch free NAND based DCDL.

Keywords: glitch free, NAND-based DCDL, CMOS, deep-submicrometer

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Authors: Rachida Ouysse

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This paper proposes a constrained principal components (CnPC) estimator for efficient estimation of large-dimensional factor models when errors are cross sectionally correlated and the number of cross-sections (N) may be larger than the number of observations (T). Although principal components (PC) method is consistent for any path of the panel dimensions, it is inefficient as the errors are treated to be homoskedastic and uncorrelated. The new CnPC exploits the assumption of bounded cross-sectional dependence, which defines Chamberlain and Rothschild’s (1983) approximate factor structure, as an explicit constraint and solves a constrained PC problem. The CnPC method is computationally equivalent to the PC method applied to a regularized form of the data covariance matrix. Unlike maximum likelihood type methods, the CnPC method does not require inverting a large covariance matrix and thus is valid for panels with N ≥ T. The paper derives a convergence rate and an asymptotic normality result for the CnPC estimators of the common factors. We provide feasible estimators and show in a simulation study that they are more accurate than the PC estimator, especially for panels with N larger than T, and the generalized PC type estimators, especially for panels with N almost as large as T.

Keywords: high dimensionality, unknown factors, principal components, cross-sectional correlation, shrinkage regression, regularization, pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting

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Authors: Nurezlin Mohd Azib, Pan Kok Chang

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This quantitative study investigates the effects of major and minor modes, and contributing musical parameter of tempo, to the emotional perceptions of ‘happy’ and ‘sad’ in piano music among subjects aged 9-17 years old. The study was conducted in two phases; survey-questionnaire, and listening activity. Subjects (N=31) were sampled from piano music students’ population in Bangi, Selangor. In the survey-questionnaire, subjects answered 20 questions on demographic characteristics, music listening and preference, and understanding of emotional perception in music. In the listening activity, subjects listened to 20 untitled piano music excerpts and rated the emotion perceived for each excerpt, whether ‘happy’ or ‘sad’. Results from survey-questionnaire show that most percentage of subjects are 11 years old, in Grade 1, of 3 years of learning piano, prefer classical music, always listen to music, prefer both major and minor modes’ music, and find it easy to understand emotion in music, as well as major and minor modes. Results from listening activity show that 60 % of major mode music are perceived as ‘major-happy’, while 60 % too, of minor mode music are perceived as ‘minor-sad’. However, Chi-square test of independence statistical analysis indicates that there are no association and significant relationship between modes (major and minor) and ‘happy’, as well as ‘sad’ perceptions (x2 (1, N = 20) = 0.80, p = 0.371), at the significance level of p ≤ 0.05. Contrastingly, there are association and significant relationship between tempo (fast and slow), and ‘happy’, as well as ‘sad’ perceptions (x2 (1, N = 20) = 9.899, p = 0.005). Therefore, it is concluded that tempo plays an important role in effects of major and minor mode to ‘happy’ and ‘sad’ emotional perceptions in piano music among subjects aged 9 to 17 in this study.

Keywords: effects, emotional perceptions, major and minor modes, piano music

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Authors: Eloise C. Tredenick, Troy W. Farrell, W. Alison Forster, Steven T. P. Psaltis

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The agriculture industry requires improved efficacy of sprays being applied to crops. More efficacious sprays provide many environmental and financial benefits. The plant leaf cuticle is known to be the main barrier to diffusion of agrochemicals within the leaf. The importance of a mathematical model to simulate uptake of agrochemicals in plant cuticles has been noted, as the results of each uptake experiments are specific to each formulation of active ingredient and plant species. In this work we develop a mathematical model and numerical simulation for the uptake of ionic agrochemicals through aqueous pores in plant cuticles. We propose a nonlinear porous diffusion model of ionic agrochemicals in isolated cuticles, which provides additions to a simple diffusion model through the incorporation of parameters capable of simulating plant species' variations, evaporation of surface droplet solutions and swelling of the aqueous pores with water. The model could feasibly be adapted to other ionic active ingredients diffusing through other plant species' cuticles. We validate our theoretical results against appropriate experimental data, discuss the key sensitivities in the model and relate theoretical predictions to appropriate physical mechanisms.

Keywords: aqueous pores, ionic active ingredient, mathematical model, plant cuticle, porous diffusion

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Authors: Vibha Kriti

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Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder generally found in reproductive women. It is associated with significant reproductive, metabolic, cosmetic, and psychological consequences. Objective: There is a high prevalence of PCOS found among reproductive-age women, therefore, the major objective of the present study is to identify the illness perception of PCOS women and to explore the relationship between illness perception and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Material and Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a university tertiary-care center, Sir Sunder Lal Hospital, Banaras Hindu University (B.H.U). Tools used for data collection were self-structured, which included socio-demographic status, illness perception questionnaire (revised version), and short-form 36 for assessing illness perception and health-related quality of life, respectively. Statistical analysis was done by SPSS version ‘24’. Results: The results of correlation analyses indicated that there is a strong relationship between strong illness perception and HRQoL. Stepwise regression indicated that illness identity, long illness duration, and severe consequences were associated with the worse outcome on emotional functioning and on social functioning. A high score on the controllability of the disease and seeking social support was significantly related to better functioning. Conclusion: Illness perception is an important factor in self-care behaviors in PCOS females and has a strong association with health-related quality of life and has a profound effect on it.

Keywords: polycystic ovary syndrome, illness perception, quality of life, young females, mental health

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Simeon Adebayo Oladipo

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Institutional administrators are currently facing pressure and challenges in their daily operations. Reasons for this may include the increasing multiplicity, uncertainty and tension that permeate institutional leadership. Authentic engagement for institutional leadership is premised on the ethical foundation that the leaders in the schools are engaged. The institutional effectiveness is dependent on the relationship that exists between the leaders and employees in the workplace. Leader’s self-awareness, relational transparency, emotional control, strong moral code and accountability have a positive influence on authentic engagement which variably determines leadership effectiveness. This study therefore examined the role of authentic engagement in effective school leadership; explored the interrelationship of authentic engagement indices in school leadership. The study adopted the descriptive research of the survey type using a quantitative method to gather data through a questionnaire among school leaders in Lagos State Tertiary Institutions. The population for the study consisted of all Heads of Departments, Deans and Principal Officers in Lagos State Tertiary Institutions. A sample size of 255 Heads of Departments, Deans and Principal Officers participated in the study. The data gathered were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools. The findings indicated that authentic engagement plays a crucial role in increasing leadership effectiveness amongst Heads of Departments, Deans and Principal Officers. The study recommended among others that there is a need for effective measures to enhance authentic engagement of institutional leadership practices through relevant educational support systems and effective quality control.

Keywords: authentic engagement, self-awareness, relational transparency, emotional control

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