Search results for: deep neural models

Authors: Mukunda Bastola, Frank Nyame-Asiamah

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Economics explanation for privatisation, drawing on neo-liberal market structures and technical efficiency principles has failed to address social imbalance and, distribute the efficiency benefits accrued from privatisation equitably among service users and different classes of people in society. Stakeholders’ interest, which cover ethical values and changing human needs are ignored due to shareholders’ profit maximising strategy with higher service charges. The consequence of these is that, the existing justifications for privatisation have fallen short of customer quality expectations because the underlying plan-based models fail to account for the nuances of customer expectations. We draw on the theory of deferred action to develop a context-based privatisation model, the deferred-based privatisation model, to explain how privatisation could be strategised for the emergent reality of the wider stakeholders’ interests and everyday quality demands of customers which are unpredictable.

Keywords: privatisation, service quality, shareholders, deferred action, deferred-based privatisation model

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Authors: Cindy Agyemang

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This study seeks to find out if racial sentiment toward immigrants still matters in the United States with COVID-19 present. It is argued that previous studies on immigration and racial attitudes or race conducted do not consider how health-related pandemics influence public opinion on immigration and the racial attitudes of people during severe health-related pandemics. In doing so, this paper hypothesizes that respondents' racial sentiment towards immigrants during this pandemic will influence their views on opposing immigration, those that believe the president handled cases on COVID-19 better are more likely to oppose immigration, and party affiliation affects respondents' views on immigration and COVID-19. For testing these hypotheses, the 2012, 2016, and 2020 American National Election Studies data was used. In accordance with the expectations of this study, it was observed that there was a statistically significant relationship between all my estimated models. This paper concludes that racial sentiment toward immigrants still matters even more in the United States, especially with the existence of health-related pandemics.

Keywords: COVID-19, immigration, racial attitudes, partisanship

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Unexpected operational events or abnormalities of industrial processes have a serious impact on the quality of final product of interest. In terms of statistical process control, fault detection and diagnosis of processes is one of the essential tasks needed to run the process safely. In this work, nonlinear representation of process measurement data is presented and evaluated using a simulation process. The effect of using different representation methods on the diagnosis performance is tested in terms of computational efficiency and data handling. The results have shown that the nonlinear representation technique produced more reliable diagnosis results and outperforms linear methods. The use of data filtering step improved computational speed and diagnosis performance for test data sets. The presented scheme is different from existing ones in that it attempts to extract the fault pattern in the reduced space, not in the original process variable space. Thus this scheme helps to reduce the sensitivity of empirical models to noise.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, nonlinear technique, process data, reduced spaces

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Authors: Arefeh Lotfi, Mahdi Babaei, Ayda Mashhadizadeh, Samira Nikpour, Morteza Bagheri

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the key factors in accidents’ severity at rail-road level crossings. The data required for this study is obtained from both accident and inventory database of Iran Railways during 2009-2015. The Ordered Probit model is developed using SPSS software to identify the significant factors in the accident severity at rail-road level crossings. The results show that 'train speed', 'vehicle type' and 'weather' are the most important factors affecting the severity of the accident. The results of these studies assist to allocate resources in the right place. This paper suggests mandating the regulations to reduce train speed at rail-road level crossings in bad weather conditions to improve the safety of rail-road level crossings.

Keywords: rail-road level crossing, ordered probit model, accidents’ severity, significant factors

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

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In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

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Authors: Nivedha Rajaram

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Hybrid Quantum solvers have been given prime focus in recent days by computation problem-solving domain industrial applications. D’Wave Quantum Computers are one such paragon of systems built using quantum annealing mechanism. Discrete Quadratic Models is a hybrid quantum computing model class supplied by D’Wave Ocean SDK - a real-time software platform for hybrid quantum solvers. These hybrid quantum computing modellers can be employed to solve classic problems. One such problem that we consider in this paper is finding a network connectivity knowledge hub in a huge network of systems. Using this quantum solver, we try to find out the prime system hub, which acts as a supreme connection point for the set of connected computers in a large network. This paper establishes an innovative problem approach to generate a connectivity system hub plot for a set of systems using DWave ocean SDK hybrid quantum solvers.

Keywords: quantum computing, hybrid quantum solver, DWave annealing, network knowledge graph

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Authors: Ashaq Hussain

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Under Islam, for the first time since the Achaemenids, all Iranians including those of Central Asia and on the frontiers of India became united under one rule. Islam was rescued from a narrow Bedouin outlook and Bedouin mores primarily by the Iranians, who showed that Islam, both as a religion and, primarily, as a culture, need not be bound solely to the Arabic language and Arab norms of behavior. Instead Islam was to become a universal religion and culture open to all people. This was a fundamental contribution of the Iranians to Islam, although all Iranians had become Muslims by the time of the creation of Saljuq Empire. So, Iran in a sense provided the history, albeit an epic, of pre-Islamic times for Islam. After all, the Arabs conquered the entire Sasanian Empire, where they found full-scale, imperial models for the management of the new Caliphate, whereas only provinces of the Byzantine Empire were overrun by the Arabs. The present paper is an attempt to give reader a detailed introduction, emergence, expansion and spread of Islam in Iran to the end of Qajar period. It is in this context the present paper has been analyzed.

Keywords: Islam, Achaemenids, Bedouin, Central Asia, Iran

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Authors: Hosein Falahaty, Hitoshi Gotoh, Abbas Khayyer

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Performance of a Hamiltonian based particle method in simulation of nonlinear structural dynamics is subjected to investigation in terms of stability and accuracy. The governing equation of motion is derived based on Hamilton's principle of least action, while the deformation gradient is obtained according to Weighted Least Square method. The hyper-elasticity models of Saint Venant-Kirchhoff and a compressible version similar to Mooney- Rivlin are engaged for the calculation of second Piola-Kirchhoff stress tensor, respectively. Stability along with accuracy of numerical model is verified by reproducing critical stress fields in static and dynamic responses. As the results, although performance of Hamiltonian based model is evaluated as being acceptable in dealing with intense extensional stress fields, however kinds of instabilities reveal in the case of violent collision which can be most likely attributed to zero energy singular modes.

Keywords: Hamilton's principle of least action, particle-based method, hyper-elasticity, analysis of stability

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Authors: Aditya Sharma

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Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.

Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns

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Authors: Yiqi Wu, Simon Tait, Andrew Nichols

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Management of UK railway drainage assets is challenging due to the large amounts of historical assets with long asset life cycles. A major concern for asset managers is to maintain the required performance economically and efficiently while complying with the relevant regulation and legislation. As the majority of the drainage assets are buried underground and are often difficult or costly to examine, it is important for asset managers to understand and model the degradation process in order to foresee the upcoming reduction in asset performance and conduct proactive maintenance accordingly. In this research, a Markov chain approach is used to model the deterioration process of rail drainage assets. The study is based on historical condition scores and characteristics of drainage assets across the whole railway network in England, Scotland, and Wales. The model is used to examine the effect of various characteristics on the probabilities of degradation, for example, the regional difference in probabilities of degradation, and how material and shape can influence the deterioration process for chambers, channels, and pipes.

Keywords: deterioration, degradation, markov models, probability, railway drainage

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Authors: Victor Radich, Tania Basso, Regina Moraes

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Lead qualification is one of the main procedures in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) projects. Its main goal is to identify potential consumers who have the ideal characteristics to establish a profitable and long-term relationship with a certain organization. Social networks can be an important source of data for identifying and qualifying leads since interest in specific products or services can be identified from the users’ expressed feelings of (dis)satisfaction. In this context, this work proposes the use of machine learning techniques and sentiment analysis as an extra step in the lead qualification process in order to improve it. In addition to machine learning models, sentiment analysis or opinion mining can be used to understand the evaluation that the user makes of a particular service, product, or brand. The results obtained so far have shown that it is possible to extract data from social networks and combine the techniques for a more complete classification.

Keywords: lead qualification, sentiment analysis, opinion mining, machine learning, CRM, lead scoring

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Authors: Hebat‑Allah S. Tohamy, Mohamed El‑Sakhawy, Samir Kamel

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Fluorescent carbon quantum dots (CQDs) were prepared by an economical, green, and single-step procedure based on microwave heating of urea with sugarcane bagasse (SCB), cellulose (C), or carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC). The prepared CQDs were characterized using a series of spectroscopic techniques, and they had small size, strong absorption in the UV, and excitation wavelength-dependent fluorescence. The prepared CQDs were used for Pb(II) adsorption from an aqueous solution. The removal efficiency percentages (R %) were 99.16, 96.36, and 98.48 for QCMC, QC, and QSCB. The findings validated the efficiency of CQDs synthesized from CMC, cellulose, and SCB as excellent materials for further utilization in the environmental fields of wastewater pollution detection, adsorption, and chemical sensing applications. The kinetics and isotherms studied found that all CQD isotherms fit well with the Langmuir model than Freundlich and Temkin models. According to R², the pseudo-second-order fits the adsorption of QCMC, while the first-order one fits with QC and QSCB.

Keywords: carbon quantum dots, graphene quantum dots, fluorescence, quantum yield, water treatment, agricultural wastes

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Authors: Marzie Shahini, Alireza Bagheri Sabbagh, Rasoul Mirghaderi, Paul C. Davidson

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The focus of this paper is to incorporating the slotted bolted connection into the cold-formed steel (CFS) beams with aim of increasing inelastic bending capacity through bolt slip. An extensive finite element analysis was conducted on the through plate CFS bolted connections which are equipped with the slotted hole. The studied parameters in this paper included the following: CFS beam section geometry, the value of slip force, CFS beam thickness. The numerical results indicate that CFS slotted bolted connection exhibit higher inelastic capacity in terms of ductility compare to connection with standards holes. Moreover, the effect of slip force was analysed by comparing the moment-rotation curves of different models with different slip force value. As a result, as the slip force became lower, there was a tendency for the plastic strain to extend from the CFS member to the connection region.

Keywords: slip-critical bolted connection, inelastic capacity, slotted holes, cold-formed steel, bolt slippage, slip force

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Authors: Leonardo Alfredo Mendoza, Cristian Munoz, Marco Aurelio Pacheco, Manoela Kohler, Evelyn Batista, Rodrigo Moura

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Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques are increasingly more powerful to be able to interpret the feelings and reactions of a person to a product or service. Sentiment analysis has become a fundamental tool for this interpretation but has few applications in languages other than English. This paper presents a classification of sentiment analysis in Portuguese with a base of comments from social networks in Portuguese. A word embedding's representation was used with a 50-Dimension GloVe pre-trained model, generated through a corpus completely in Portuguese. To generate this classification, the bidirectional long short-term memory and bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models are used, reaching results of 99.1%.

Keywords: natural processing language, sentiment analysis, bidirectional long short-term memory, BI-LSTM, gated recurrent unit, GRU

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Authors: Sabrina Neururer, Marco Schweitzer, Werner Hackl, Bernhard Tilg, Patrick Raudaschl, Andreas Huber, Bernhard Pfeifer

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History and the current outbreak of Covid-19 have shown the deadly potential of infectious diseases. However, infectious diseases also have a serious impact on areas other than health and healthcare, such as the economy or social life. These areas are strongly codependent. Therefore, disease control measures, such as social distancing, quarantines, curfews, or lockdowns, have to be adopted in a very considerate manner. Infectious disease modeling can support policy and decision-makers with adequate information regarding the dynamics of the pandemic and therefore assist in planning and enforcing appropriate measures that will prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. In this work, an agent-based simulation package named “survival” for simulating infectious diseases is presented. A special focus is put on SARS-Cov-2. The presented simulation package was used in Austria to model the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak from the beginning of 2020. Agent-based modeling is a relatively recent modeling approach. Since our world is getting more and more complex, the complexity of the underlying systems is also increasing. The development of tools and frameworks and increasing computational power advance the application of agent-based models. For parametrizing the presented model, different data sources, such as known infections, wastewater virus load, blood donor antibodies, circulating virus variants and the used capacity for hospitalization, as well as the availability of medical materials like ventilators, were integrated with a database system and used. The simulation result of the model was used for predicting the dynamics and the possible outcomes and was used by the health authorities to decide on the measures to be taken in order to control the pandemic situation. The survival package was implemented in the programming language Java and the analytics were performed with R Studio. During the first run in March 2020, the simulation showed that without measures other than individual personal behavior and appropriate medication, the death toll would have been about 27 million people worldwide within the first year. The model predicted the hospitalization rates (standard and intensive care) for Tyrol and South Tyrol with an accuracy of about 1.5% average error. They were calculated to provide 10-days forecasts. The state government and the hospitals were provided with the 10-days models to support their decision-making. This ensured that standard care was maintained for as long as possible without restrictions. Furthermore, various measures were estimated and thereafter enforced. Among other things, communities were quarantined based on the calculations while, in accordance with the calculations, the curfews for the entire population were reduced. With this framework, which is used in the national crisis team of the Austrian province of Tyrol, a very accurate model could be created on the federal state level as well as on the district and municipal level, which was able to provide decision-makers with a solid information basis. This framework can be transferred to various infectious diseases and thus can be used as a basis for future monitoring.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, agent-based, SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19

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Authors: Samar Raffoul, Martin Heywood, Dimitrios Moutaftsis, Michael Rowell

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This paper comprises an experimental investigation into the structural performance of cold formed steel (CFS) and timber board composite floor systems. The tests include a series of small-scale pushout tests and full-scale bending tests carried out using a refined loading system to simulate uniformly distributed constant load. The influence of connection details (screw spacing and adhesives) on floor performance was investigated. The results are then compared to predictions from relevant existing models for composite floor systems. The results of this research demonstrate the significant benefits of considering the composite action of the boards in floor design. Depending on connection detail, an increase in flexural stiffness of up to 40% was observed in the floor system, when compared to designing joists individually.

Keywords: cold formed steel joists, composite action, flooring systems, shear connection

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Authors: Abdusalam Sharf

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In the oil and gas industries, one of the most important issues in drilling wells is understanding the behavior of a flow through an annulus gap in a vertical position, whose outer wall is stationary whilst the inner wall rotates. The main emphasis is placed on a comparison of experimental and computational investigations into the effects of the rotation speed of the inner pipe on the axial velocity profiles. The computational investigations were carried out by employing CFD software, and Gambit and Fluent. Three turbulence models were used: standard, RNG with enhanced wall treatment, and SST model. The profiles of the axial velocity had investigated at different rotation speeds of the inner pipe with three different volumetric flow rates. The comparison results showed that the calculations satisfactorily predict the qualitative features of the axial and swirl velocity profiles and the RNG model performs the best results.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), SST k−ω shear-stress transport (k−ω mode variant), RNG k–ε renormalisation group (k−ε mode variant), y+ dimensionless distance from wall

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Authors: Ehsan Daryadel, Hamid Shakeri

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Good governance is considered as one of the necessary prerequisites for promotion of sustainable development programs in countries. Theoretical model of good governance is going to form the best methods for administration and management of subject country. The importance of maintaining the balance between the needs of present and future generation through sustainable development caused a change in method of management and providing service for citizens that is addressed as the most efficient and effective way of administration of countries. This method is based on democratic and equal-seeking sustainable development which is trying to affect all actors in this area and also be accountable to all citizens’ needs. Meanwhile, it should be noted that good governance is a prerequisite for sustainable development. In fact, good governance means impact of all actors on administration and management of the country for fulfilling public services, general needs of citizens and establishing a balance and harmony between needs of present and future generation. In the present study, efforts have been made to present concepts, definitions, purposes and indices of good governance with a descriptive-analytical method.

Keywords: accountability, efficiency and effectiveness, good governance, rule of law, transparency

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Authors: Helga Mayr

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In our ongoing effort to address urgent global challenges related to sustainability, higher education institutions play a central role in raising a generation of informed and empowered citizens committed to sustainable development. This paper presents the preliminary results of the so far realized evaluation of a compulsory module on education for sustainable development (ESD) offered to students in the bachelor's program in elementary education at the University College of Teacher Education Tyrol (PH Tirol), Austria. The module includes a lecture on sustainability and education as well as a project-based seminar that aims to foster a deep understanding of ESD and its application in pedagogical practice. The study examines various dimensions related to the module's impact on participating students, focusing on prevalent sustainability concepts, intentions, actions, general and sustainability-related self-efficacy, perceived competence related to ESD, and ESD-related self-efficacy. In addition, the research addresses assessment of the learning process. To obtain a comprehensive overview of the effectiveness of the module, a mixed methods approach was/is used in the evaluation. Quantitative data was/is collected through surveys and self-assessment instruments, while qualitative findings were/will be obtained through focus group interviews and reflective analysis. The PH Tirol is collaborating with another University College of Teacher Education (Styria) and a university of applied sciences in Switzerland (UAS of the Grisons) to broaden the scope of the analysis and allow for comparative findings. Preliminary results indicate that students have a relatively rudimentary understanding of sustainability. The extent to which completion of the module influences understanding of sustainability, awareness, intentions, and actions, as well as self-efficacy, is currently under investigation. The results will be available at the time of the conference and will be presented there. In terms of learning, the project-based seminar, which promotes hands-on engagement with ESD, was evaluated for its effectiveness in fostering key sustainability competencies as well as sustainability-related and ESD-related self-efficacy. The research not only provides insights into the effectiveness of the compulsory module ESD at the PH Tirol but also contributes to the broader discourse on integrating ESD into teacher education.

Keywords: education for sustainable development, teacher education, project-based learning, effectiveness measurements

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Authors: Pakhapoom Sarapat, James M. Hill, Duangkamon Baowan

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Carbon nanotori provide several properties such as high tensile strength and heat resistance. They are promised to be ideal structures for encapsulation, and their encapsulation ability can be determined by the interaction energy between the carbon nanotori and the encapsulated nanostructures. Such interaction energy is evaluated using Lennard-Jones potential and continuum approximation. Here, four problems relating to toroidal molecules are determined in order to find the most stable configuration. Firstly, the interaction energy between a carbon nanotorus and an atom is examined. The second problem relates to the energy of a fullerene encapsulated inside a carbon nanotorus. Next, the interaction energy between two symmetrically situated and parallel nanotori is considered. Finally, the classical mechanics is applied to model the interaction energy between the toroidal structure of cyclodextrin and the spherical DNA molecules. These mathematical models might be exploited to study a number of promising devices for future developments in bio and nanotechnology.

Keywords: carbon nanotori, continuum approximation, interaction energy, Lennard-Jones potential, nanotechnology

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Authors: Raja Asad Zaheer, Aisha Tanveer, Hafza Mehreen Fatima

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Global Software Development (GSD) is becoming a common norm in software industry, despite of the fact that global distribution of the teams presents special issues for effective communication and coordination of the teams. Now trends are changing and project management for distributed teams is no longer in a limbo. GSD can be effectively established using agile and project managers can use different agile techniques/tools for solving the problems associated with distributed teams. Agile methodologies like scrum and XP have been successfully used with distributed teams. We have employed exploratory research method to analyze different recent studies related to challenges of GSD and their proposed solutions. In our study, we had deep insight in six commonly faced challenges: communication and coordination, temporal differences, cultural differences, knowledge sharing/group awareness, speed and communication tools. We have established that each of these challenges cannot be neglected for distributed teams of any kind. They are interlinked and as an aggregated whole can cause the failure of projects. In this paper we have focused on creating a scalable framework for detecting and overcoming these commonly faced challenges. In the proposed solution, our objective is to suggest agile techniques/tools relevant to a particular problem faced by the organizations related to the management of distributed teams. We focused mainly on scrum and XP techniques/tools because they are widely accepted and used in the industry. Our solution identifies the problem and suggests an appropriate technique/tool to help solve the problem based on globally shared knowledgebase. We can establish a cause and effect relationship using a fishbone diagram based on the inputs provided for issues commonly faced by organizations. Based on the identified cause, suitable tool is suggested, our framework suggests a suitable tool. Hence, a scalable, extensible, self-learning, intelligent framework proposed will help implement and assess GSD to achieve maximum out of it. Globally shared knowledgebase will help new organizations to easily adapt best practices set forth by the practicing organizations.

Keywords: agile project management, agile tools/techniques, distributed teams, global software development

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Samaneh Nazeri, Bagher Mojazi Amiri, Hamid Farahmand

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Production of high quality fish eggs with reasonable hatching rate makes a success in aquaculture industries. It is influenced by the environmental stimulators and inhibitors. Diazinon is a widely-used pesticide in Golestan province (Southern Caspian Sea, North of Iran) which is washed to the aquatic environment (3 mg/L in the river). It is little known about the effect of this pesticide on the embryogenesis of sturgeon fish, the valuable species of the Caspian Sea. Hormonal content of the egg is an important factor to guaranty the successful passes of embryonic stages. In this study, the fate of Persian sturgeon embryo to 24, 48, 72, and 96-hours exposure of diazinon (LC₅₀ dose) was tested. Also, the effect of thyroid hormones (T3 and T4) on these embryos was tested concurrently or separately with diazinon LC ₅₀ dose. Fertilized eggs are exposed to T3 (low dose: 1 ng/ml, high dose: 10 ng/ml), T4 (low dose: 1 ng/ml, high dose: 10 ng/ml). Six eggs were randomly selected from each treatment (with three replicates) in five developmental stages (two cell- division, neural, heart present, heart beaten, and hatched larvae). The possibility of changing T3, T4, and cortisol contents of the embryos were determined in all treated groups and in every mentioned embryonic stage. The hatching rate in treated groups was assayed at the end of the embryogenesis to clarify the effect of thyroid hormones and diazinon. The results indicated significant differences in thyroid hormone contents, but no significant differences were recognized in cortisol levels at various early life stages of embryos. There was also significant difference in thyroid hormones in (T3, T4) + diazinon treated embryos (P˂0.05), while no significant difference between control and treatments in cortisol levels was observed. The highest hatching rate was recorded in HT3 treatment, while the lowest hatching rate was recorded for diazinon LC₅₀ treatment. The result confirmed that Persian sturgeon embryo is less sensitive to diazinon compared to teleost embryos, and thyroid hormones may increase hatching rate even in the presence of diazinon.

Keywords: Persian sturgeon, diazinon, thyroid hormones, cortisol, embryo

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Authors: Parya Tabei, Maryam Habibifar

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Decision-making is an important cognitive function that can be defined as the process of choosing an option among available options to achieve a specific goal. Consumer ‘need’ is the main reason for purchasing decisions. Human decision-making while buying products online is subject to various factors, one of which is the quality and effect of advertising photos. Advertising photo editing can have a significant impact on people's virtual purchase decisions. This technique helps improve the quality and overall appearance of photos by adjusting various aspects such as brightness, contrast, colors, cropping, resizing, and adding filters. This study, by examining the effect of editing advertising photos on the virtual purchase decision using EEG data, tries to investigate the effect of edited images on the decision-making of customers. A group of 30 participants were asked to react to 24 edited and unedited images while their EEG was recorded. Analysis of the EEG data revealed increased alpha wave activity in the occipital regions (O1, O2) for both edited and unedited images, which is related to visual processing and attention. Additionally, there was an increase in beta wave activity in the frontal regions (FP1, FP2, F4, F8) when participants viewed edited images, suggesting involvement in cognitive processes such as decision-making and evaluating advertising content. Gamma wave activity also increased in various regions, especially the frontal and parietal regions, which are associated with higher cognitive functions, such as attention, memory, and perception, when viewing the edited images. While the visual processing reflected by alpha waves remained consistent across different visual conditions, editing advertising photos appeared to boost neural activity in frontal and parietal regions associated with decision-making processes. These Findings suggest that photo editing could potentially influence consumer perceptions during virtual shopping experiences by modulating brain activity related to product assessment and purchase decisions.

Keywords: virtual purchase decision, advertising photo, EEG parameters, decision Making

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

Abstract:

Refined procedures for higher-order asymptotic theory for non-linear models are developed. These include a new method for deriving stochastic expansions of arbitrary order, new methods for evaluating the moments of polynomials of sample averages, a new method for deriving the approximate moments of the stochastic expansions; an application of these techniques to gather improved inferences with the weak instruments problem is considered. It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. In our application, finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: edgeworth expansions, higher order asymptotics, saddlepoint expansions, weak instruments

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Authors: Adam Abate, Elham Rasti, Philip Romero

Abstract:

Beta-glucosidase is the key enzyme component present in cellulase and completes the final step during cellulose hydrolysis by converting the cellobiose to glucose. The regulatory properties of beta-glucosidases are most commonly found for the retaining and inverting enzymes. Hydrolysis of a glycoside typically occurs with general acid and general base assistance from two amino acid side chains, normally glutamic or aspartic acids. In order to obtain more detailed information on the dynamic events origination from the interaction with enzyme active site, we carried out molecular dynamics simulations of beta-glycosidase in protonated state (Glu-H178) and deprotonated state (Glu178). The theoretical models generated from our molecular dynamics simulations complement and advance the structural information currently available, leading to a more detailed understanding of Beta-glycosidase structure and function. This article presents the important role of Asn307 in enzyme activity of beta-glucosidase

Keywords: Beta-glucosidase, GROMACS, molecular dynamics simulation, structural parameters

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Authors: Inês Ramalhete, Hugo Farias, Rui da Silva Pinto

Abstract:

Adequate housing has been a widely discussed theme in academic circles related to low-cost housing, whereas its physical features are easy to deal with, overcrowding (related to social, cultural and economic aspects) is still ambiguous, particularly regarding the set of indicators that can accurately reflect and measure it. This paper develops research on low-cost housing models for developing countries and what is the best method to embed overcrowding as an important parameter for adaptability. A critical review of international overcrowding indicators and their application in two developing countries, Cape Verde and Angola, is presented. The several rationales and the constraints for an accurate assessment of overcrowding are considered, namely baseline data (statistics), which can induce misjudgments, as well as social and cultural factors (such as personal choices of residents). This paper proposes a way to tackle overcrowding through housing adaptability, considering factors such as physical flexibility, functional ambiguity, and incremental expansion schemes. Moreover, a case-study is presented to establish a framework for the theoretical application of the proposed approach.

Keywords: adaptive housing, low cost housing, overcrowding, housing model

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Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

Abstract:

Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

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Authors: James Britton, Vijaya Krishna, Manus Biggs, Abhay Pandit

Abstract:

Regeneration of the spinal cord after injury remains a great challenge due to the complexity of this organ. Inflammation and gliosis at the injury site hinder the outgrowth of axons and hence prevent synaptic reconnection and reinnervation. Hyaluronic acid (HA) is the main component of the spinal cord extracellular matrix and plays a vital role in cell proliferation and axonal guidance. In this study, we have synthesized and characterized a photo-cross-linkable HA-tyramine (tyr) hydrogel from a chemical, mechanical, electrical, biological and structural perspective. From our experimentation, we have found that HA-tyr can be synthesized with controllable degrees of tyramine substitution using click chemistry. The complex modulus (G*) of HA-tyr can be tuned to mimic the mechanical properties of the native spinal cord via optimization of the photo-initiator concentration and UV exposure. We have examined the degree of tyramine-tyramine covalent bonding (polymerization) as a function of UV exposure and photo-initiator use via Photo and Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Both swelling and enzymatic degradation assays were conducted to examine the resilience of our 3D printed hydrogel constructs in-vitro. Using a femtosecond 780nm laser, the two-photon polymerization of HA-tyr hydrogel in the presence of riboflavin photoinitiator was optimized. A laser power of 50mW and scan speed of 30,000 μm/s produced high-resolution spatial patterning within the hydrogel with sustained mechanical integrity. Using dorsal root ganglion explants, the cytocompatibility of photo-crosslinked HA-tyr was assessed. Using potentiometry, the electrical conductivity of photo-crosslinked HA-tyr was assessed and compared to that of native spinal cord tissue as a function of frequency. In conclusion, we have developed a biocompatible hydrogel that can be used for photolithographic 3D printing to fabricate tissue engineered constructs for neural tissue regeneration applications.

Keywords: 3D printing, hyaluronic acid, photolithography, spinal cord injury

Procedia PDF Downloads 139