Search results for: error control

Authors: Anzal Abbas Jaffari, Wajiha Javed, Naseem Salahuddin

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Rationale: Rabies, a vaccine preventable disease, continues to be a critical public health issue as it kills around 2000-5000 people annually in Pakistan. Along with the disease spread among animals, the dog population remains a victim of brutal culling practices by the local authorities, which adversely affects ecosystem (sinking of poison in the soil – affecting vegetation & contaminating water) and the disease spread. The dog population has been exponentially rising primarily because a lack of a consolidated nationwide Animal Birth Control program and awareness among the local communities in general and children in particular. This is reflected in Pakistan’s low SARE score - 1.5, which makes the country trails behind other developing countries like Bangladesh (2.5) and Philippines (3.5).According to an estimate, the province of Sindh alone is home to almost 2.5 million dogs. The clustering of dogs in Peri-Urban areas and inner cities localities leads to an increase of reported dog bite cases in these areas specifically. Objective: Rabies Free Pakistan (RFP), which is a joint venture of Getz Pharma Private Limited and Indus Hospital & Health Network (IHHN); it was established in 2018 to eliminate Rabies from Pakistan by 2030 using the One Health Approach. Methodology: The RFP team is actively working on advocacy and policy front with both the Federal & Provincial government to ensure that all stakeholders currently involved in dog culling in Pakistan have a paradigm shift towards humane methods of vaccination and ABC. Along with the federal government, RFP aims to declare Rabies as a notifiable disease. Whereas RFP closely works with the provincial government of Sindh to initiate a province wide Rabies Control Program.RFP program follows international standards and WHO approved protocols for this program in Pakistan.RFP team has achieved various milestones in the fight against Rabies after successfully scaling up project operations and has vaccinated more than 30,000 dogs and neutered around 7,000 dogs since 2018. Recommendations: Effective implementation of Rabies program (MDV and ABC) requires a concentrated effort to address a variety of structural and policy challenges. This essentially demands a massive shift in the attitude of individuals towards rabies. The two most significant challenges in implementing a standard policy at the structural level are lack of institutional capacity, shortage of vaccine, and absence of inter-departmental coordination among major stakeholders: federal government, provincial ministry of health, livestock, and local bodies (including local councils). The lack of capacity in health care workers to treat dog bite cases emerges as a critical challenge at the clinical level. Conclusion: Pakistan can learn from the successful international models of Sri Lanka and Mexico as they adopted the One Health Approach to eliminate rabies like RFP. The WHO advised One Health approach provides the policymakers with an interactive and cross-sectoral guide, which involves all the essential elements of the eco system (including animals, humans, and other components).

Keywords: animal birth control, dog population, mass dog vaccination, one health, rabies elimination

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Authors: Fethia Braik

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This paper summarizes the history of the US Supreme Court. It did not enjoy today’s status. It did neither control legislation nor the executive power. It was until 1803, during Marshall’s term, that it gained the pride of ruling over the constitutionality of acts be they federal or local, congressional or presidential. The Chief Justice, whether intended or not, vested such power in the supreme judicial institution via the case of Marbury v. Madison. Such power, nevertheless, had not been exercised for many years, till the Dred Scott case.

Keywords: Judiciary Acts 1789, 1801, chief justice, associate justice, justice of peace, review of constitutionality of acts, Jay court, Ellsworth court, Marshall court

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Authors: Beeto W. C. Leung, Nicole C. Y. Lee

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It was well known that college students experienced a high level of stress and anxiety. College athletes, a special group of college students, may even encounter a higher level of pressure and distress due to their dual endeavors in academic and athletic settings. Due to the high demands and costs of mental health services, easily accessible, web-based self-help interventions are getting more popular. The aim of the present experimental study was to examine the potential intervention effect of a mindfulness-based self-help mobile App, called 'Smiling Mind', on mindfulness and psychological well-being. Forty-six college athletes, recruited from athletic teams of two local universities in Hong Kong, were randomly assigned to the Mindfulness App Group (MAG) and the Control Group (CG). All participants were administered the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale, Geriatric Depression Scale, and Perceived Stress Scale-10 before the study (Time 1, T1) and after the 4-week intervention (Time 2, T2). MAG was requested to use the app and follow the instructions every day for at least 5 days per week. Participants were also asked to record their daily app usage time. Results showed that, for MAG, from T1 to T2, mindfulness has been increased from 3.25 to 3.92; depressive symptoms and stress has been significantly decreased from 8.6 to 5.1 and 24.8 to 13.5 respectively while for the CG, mindfulness has been decreased slightly from 3.29 to 3.13; depressive symptoms and stress has been slightly increased from 7.1 to 7.3 and 24.1 to 27.1 respectively. Three mixed-design ANOVAs with time (T1, T2) as the within-subjects factor and intervention group (MAG, CG) as the between-subjects factor revealed a main effect of time on mindfulness, F(1, 41) = 10.28, p < 0.01, depressive symptoms, F(1, 41) = 6.55, p < 0.02 and stress, F(1, 41) = 16.96, p < 0.001 respectively. Both predicted interaction between time and intervention group on mindfulness, F(1, 41) = 26.6, p < 0.001, ηp 2 =0.39, depressive symptoms, F(1, 41) = 8.00, p < 0.01, ηp 2 =0.16 and Stress F(1, 41) = 49.3, p < 0.001, ηp 2 =0.55 were significant meaning that participants using the Mindfulness Mobile App in the intervention did experienced a significant increase in mindfulness and significant decrease in depressive symptoms and perceived level of stress after the 4-week intervention when compared with the control group. The present study provided encouraging empirical support for using Smiling Mind, a self-help mobile app, to promote mindfulness and mental health in a cost-effective way. Further studies should examine the potential use of Smiling Mind in different samples, including children and adolescence, as well as, investigate the lasting effects of using the app on other psychosocial outcomes such as emotional regulations.

Keywords: college athletes, experimental study, mindfulness mobile apps, psychological well-being

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Authors: Jae Ni Jang, Young Uk Kim

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Background: Chat Generative Pre-training Transformer-3 (ChatGPT; San Francisco, California, Open Artificial Intelligence) is an artificial intelligence chatbot based on a large language model designed to generate human-like text. As the usage of ChatGPT is increasing among less knowledgeable patients, medical students, and anesthesia and pain medicine residents or trainees, we aimed to evaluate the accuracy of ChatGPT-3 responses to questions about the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification based on patients’ underlying diseases and assess the quality of the generated responses. Methods: A total of 47 questions were submitted to ChatGPT using textual prompts. The questions were designed for ChatGPT-3 to provide answers regarding ASA classification in response to common underlying diseases frequently observed in adult patients. In addition, we created 18 questions regarding the ASA classification for pediatric patients and pregnant women. The accuracy of ChatGPT’s responses was evaluated by cross-referencing with Miller’s Anesthesia, Morgan & Mikhail’s Clinical Anesthesiology, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists’ ASA Physical Status Classification System (2020). Results: Out of the 47 questions pertaining to adults, ChatGPT -3 provided correct answers for only 23, resulting in an accuracy rate of 48.9%. Furthermore, the responses provided by ChatGPT-3 regarding children and pregnant women were mostly inaccurate, as indicated by a 28% accuracy rate (5 out of 18). Conclusions: ChatGPT provided correct responses to questions relevant to the daily clinical routine of anesthesiologists in approximately half of the cases, while the remaining responses contained errors. Therefore, caution is advised when using ChatGPT to retrieve anesthesia-related information. Although ChatGPT may not yet be suitable for clinical settings, we anticipate significant improvements in ChatGPT and other large language models in the near future. Regular assessments of ChatGPT's ASA classification accuracy are essential due to the evolving nature of ChatGPT as an artificial intelligence entity. This is especially important because ChatGPT has a clinically unacceptable rate of error and hallucination, particularly in pediatric patients and pregnant women. The methodology established in this study may be used to continue evaluating ChatGPT.

Keywords: American Society of Anesthesiologists, artificial intelligence, Chat Generative Pre-training Transformer-3, ChatGPT

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Authors: Maggie Hui

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Risk management is not a new concept; however, it is an uncharted area as applied to the translation process and translator training. Serving as one of the self-discovery activities in their practicum course, a two-cycle experiment was carried out with a class of 13 MA translation students with an attempt to explore their risk management while translating in a simulated setting that involves translator-client relations. To test the effects of the main variable of translators’ interaction with the simulated clients, the researcher employed control-group translators and two experiment groups (with Group A being the translator in Cycle 1 and the client in Cycle 2, and Group B on the client position in Cycle 1 and the translator position in Cycle 2). Experiment cycle 1 aims to explore if there would be any behavioral difference in risk management between translators with interaction with the simulated clients, i.e. experiment group A, and their counterparts without such interaction, i.e. control group. Design of Cycle 2 concerns the order of playing different roles of the translator and client in the experiment, and provides information to compare behavior of translators of the two experiment groups. Since this is process-oriented research, it is necessary to hypothesize what was happening in the translators’ minds. The researcher made use of a user-friendly screen-voice recording freeware to record subjects’ screen activities, including every word the translator typed and every change they made to the rendition, the websites they browsed and the reference tools they used, in addition to the verbalization of their thoughts throughout the process. The research observes the translation procedures subjects considered and finally adopted, and looks into the justifications for their procedures, in order to interpret their risk management. The qualitative and quantitative results of this study have some implications for translator training: (a) the experience of being a client seems to reinforce the translator’s risk aversion; (b) the use of role-playing simulation can empower students’ learning by enhancing their attitudinal or psycho-physiological competence, interpersonal competence and strategic competence; and (c) the screen-voice recordings serve as a helpful tool for learners to reflect on their rendition processes, i.e. what they performed satisfactorily and unsatisfactorily while translating and what they could do for improvement in future translation tasks.

Keywords: risk management, screen-voice recordings, simulated translator-client relations, translation pedagogy, translation process-oriented research

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Authors: Onyinyechi Joy Kingdom

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Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) have been proposed as a mechanism through which, problems associated with inefficiency or poor performance in financial institution could be addressed. The aim of this study is to examine the proposition that recapitalization of banks, which encouraged Mergers and Acquisitions in Nigeria banking system, would strengthen the domestic banks, improve financial deepening and the confidence of depositors. Hence, this study examines the impact of the 2005 M&A in the Nigerian-banking sector on financial deepening using mixed method (quantitative and qualitative approach). The quantitative process of this study utilised annual time series for financial deepening indicator for the period of 1997 to 2012. While, the qualitative aspect adopted semi-structured interview to collate data from three merged banks and three stand-alone banks to explore, understand and complement the quantitative results. Furthermore, a framework thematic analysis is employed to analyse the themes developed using NVivo 11 software. Using the quantitative approach, findings from the equality of mean test (EMT) used suggests that M&A have significant impact on financial deepening. However, this method is not robust enough given its weak validity as it does not control for other potential factors that may determine financial deepening. Thus, to control for other factors that may affect the level of financial deepening, a Multiple Regression Model (MRM) and Interrupted Times Series Analysis (ITSA) were applied. The coefficient for M&A dummy turned negative and insignificant using MRM. In addition, the estimated linear trend of the post intervention when ITSA was applied suggests that after M&A, the level of financial deepening decreased annually; however, this was statistically insignificant. Similarly, using the qualitative approach, the results from the interview supported the quantitative results from ITSA and MRM. The result suggests that interest rate should fall when capital base is increased to improve financial deepening. Hence, this study contributes to the existing literature the importance of other factors that may affect financial deepening and the economy when policies that will enhance bank performance and the economy are made. In addition, this study will enable the use of valuable policy instruments relevant to monetary authorities when formulating policies that will strengthen the Nigerian banking sector and the economy.

Keywords: mergers and acquisitions, recapitalization, financial deepening, efficiency, financial crisis

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Authors: Crysovaladou Kefaloudi, Kassiani Mellou, Eirini Saranti-Papasaranti, Athanasios Koustenis, Chrysoula Botsi, Agapios Terzidis

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Recent migration crisis led to a vast migrant – refugees movement to Greece which created an urgent need for hosting settlements. Taken into account the protection of public health from possible pathogens related to water and food supply as well as waste and sewage accumulation, a 'Living Conditions Recording Form' was created in the context of 'PHILOS' European Program funded by the Asylum Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) of EU’s DG Migration and Home Affairs, in order to assess a number of environmental sanitation parameters, in refugees – migrants camps in mainland. The assessment will be completed until the end of July. From March to June 2017, mobile unit teams comprised of health inspectors of sub-action 2 of “PHILOS” proceeded with the assessment of living conditions in twenty-two out of thirty-one camps and 'Stata' was used for the statistical analysis of obtained information. Variables were grouped into the following categories: 1) Camp administration, 2) hosted population number, 3) accommodation, 4) heating installations, 5) personal hygiene, 6) sewage collection and disposal, 7) water supply, 8) waste collection and management, 9) pest control, 10) fire safety, 11) food handling and safety. Preliminary analysis of the results showed that camp administration was performed in 90% of the camps by a public authority with the coordination of various NGOs. The median number of hosted population was 222 ranging from 62 to 3200, and the median value of hosted population per accommodation type was 4 in 19 camps. Heating facilities were provided in 86.1% of camps. In 18.2 % of the camps, one personal hygiene facility was available per 6 people ranging in the rest of the camps from 1 per 3 to 1 per 20 hosted refugees-migrants. Waste and sewage collection was performed depending on populations demand in an adequate way in all recorded camps. In 90% of camps, water was supplied through the central water supply system. In 85% of camps quantity and quality of water supply inside camps was regularly monitored for microbial and chemical indices. Pest control was implemented in 86.4% of the camps as well as fire safety measures. Food was supplied by catering companies in 50% of the camps, and the quality and quantity food was monitored at a regular basis. In 77% of camps, food was prepared by the hosted population with the availability of proper storage conditions. Furthermore, in all camps, hosted population was provided with personal hygiene items and health sanitary educational programs were implemented in 77.3% of camps. In conclusion, in the majority of the camps, environmental sanitation parameters were satisfactory. However, waste and sewage accumulation, as well as inadequate pest control measures were recorded in some camps. The obtained data have led to a number of recommendations for the improvement of sanitary conditions, disseminated to all relevant stakeholders. Special emphasis was given to hygiene measures implementation during food handling by migrants – refugees, as well as to waste and sewage accumulation taking in to account the population’s cultural background.

Keywords: environmental sanitation parameters, food borne diseases risk assessment, refugee – migrants camps, water borne diseases risk assessment

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Authors: Breanna Macumber, Victor A. Huayamave, Emir A. Vela, Wangdo Kim, Tamara T. Chamber, Esteban Centeno

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Spina bifida is a type of neural tube defect that affects the nervous system and can lead to problems such as total leg paralysis. Treatment requires physical therapy and rehabilitation. Robotic exoskeletons have been used for rehabilitation to train muscle movement and assist in injury recovery; however, current models focus on the adult populations and not on the infant population. The proposed framework aims to couple a musculoskeletal infant model with a robotic exoskeleton using vacuum-powered artificial muscles to provide rehabilitation to infants affected by spina bifida. The study that drove the input values for the robotic exoskeleton used motion capture technology to collect data from the spontaneous kicking movement of a 2.4-month-old infant lying supine. OpenSim was used to develop the musculoskeletal model, and Inverse kinematics was used to estimate hip joint angles. A total of 4 kicks (A, B, C, D) were selected, and the selection was based on range, transient response, and stable response. Kicks had at least 5° of range of motion with a smooth transient response and a stable period. The robotic exoskeleton used a Vacuum-Powered Artificial Muscle (VPAM) the structure comprised of cells that were clipped in a collapsed state and unclipped when desired to simulate infant’s age. The artificial muscle works with vacuum pressure. When air is removed, the muscle contracts and when air is added, the muscle relaxes. Bench testing was performed using a 6-month-old infant mannequin. The previously developed exoskeleton worked really well with controlled ranges of motion and frequencies, which are typical of rehabilitation protocols for infants suffering with spina bifida. However, the random kicking motion in this study contained high frequency kicks and was not able to accurately replicate all the investigated kicks. Kick 'A' had a greater error when compared to the other kicks. This study has the potential to advance the infant rehabilitation field.

Keywords: musculoskeletal modeling, soft robotics, rehabilitation, pediatrics

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Authors: R. Schurig, T. Désesquelles, A. Dumont, E. Lefranc, A. Lux

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A cost-efficient alternative is proposed to the use of a single drone carrying multiple cameras in order to take stereoscopic images and videos during its flight. Such drone has to be particularly large enough to take off with its equipment, and stable enough in order to make valid measurements. Corresponding performance for a single aircraft usually comes with a large cost. Proposed solution consists in using multiple smaller and cheaper aircrafts carrying one camera each instead of a single expensive one. To give a proof of concept, AR drones, quad-rotor UAVs from Parrot Inc., are experimentally used.

Keywords: drone squadron, flight control, rotorcraft, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), AR drone, stereoscopic vision

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Authors: Ambika Selvaraj

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Magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (IO) of < 20nm (superparamagnetic) become promising tool in cancer therapy, and integrated nanodevices for cancer detection and screening. The obstacles include particle heterogeneity and cost. It can be overcome by developing monodispersed nanoparticles in economical approach. We have successfully synthesized < 7 nm IO by low temperature controlled technique, in which Fe0 is sandwiched between stabilizer and Fe2+. Size analysis showed the excellent size control from 31 nm at 33°C to 6.8 nm at 10°C. Resultant monodispersed IO were found to be stable for > 50 reuses, proved its applicability in biomedical applications.

Keywords: low temperature synthesis, hybrid iron nanoparticles, cancer therapy, biomedical applications

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Authors: I. Dangeard, S. Meineri, M. Dupré

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large body of research on energy consumption reveals that regular information on energy consumption produces a positive effect on behavior. The present research aims to test this feedback paradigm on waste management. A small-scale experiment on residual household waste was performed in a large french urban area, in partnership with local authorities, as part of the development of larger-scale project. A two-step door-to-door recruitment scheme led to 85 households answering a questionnaire. Among them, 54 accepted to participate in a study on waste (second step). Participants were then randomly assigned to one of the 3 experimental conditions : self-reported feedback on curbside waste, external feedback on waste weight based on information technologies, and no feedback for the control group. An additional control group was added, including households who were not requested to answer the questionnaire. Household residual waste was collected every week, and tags on curbside bins fed a database with waste weight of households. The feedback period lasted 14 weeks (february-may 2014). Quantitative data on waste weight were analysed, including these 14 weeks and the 7 previous weeks. Households were then contacted by phone in order to confirm the quantitative results. Regarding the recruitment questionnaire, results revealed high pro-environmental attitude on the NEP scale, high recycling behavior level and moderate level of source reduction behavior on the adapted 3R scale, but no statistical difference between the 3 experimental groups. Regarding the feedback manipulation paradigm, waste weight reveals important differences between households, but doesn't prove any statistical difference between the experimental conditions. Qualitative phone interviews confirm that recycling is a current practice among participants, whereas source reduction of waste is not, and mainly appears as a producer problem of packaging limitation. We conclude that triggering waste prevention behaviors among recycling households involves long-term feedback and should promote benchmarking, in order to clearly set waste reduction as an objective to be managed through feedback figures.

Keywords: eco-feedback, household waste, waste reduction, experimental research

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Authors: B. B. Rana, M. Yokota, Y. Shimizu, Y. Koide, I. Takamure, T. Kawano, M. Murai

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Various genes which control or affect heading time have been found in rice. Out of them, Se1 and E1 loci play important roles in determining heading time by controlling photosensitivity. An isogenic-line pair of late and early lines were developed from progenies of the F₁ from Suweon 258 × 36U. A lateness gene tentatively designated as “Ex” was found to control the difference in heading time between the early and late lines mentioned above. The present study was conducted to examine the effect of Ex on yield and related traits. Indica-type variety Suweon 258 was crossed with 36U, which is an Ur1 (Undulate rachis-1) isogenic line of IR36. In the F₂ population, comparatively early-heading, late-heading and intermediate-heading plants were segregated. Segregation similar to that by the three types of heading was observed in the F₃ and later generations. A late-heading plant and an early-heading plant were selected in the F₈ population from an intermediate-heading F₇ plant, for developing L and E of the isogenic-line pair, respectively. Experiments for L and E were conducted by randomized block design with three replications. Transplanting was conducted on May 3 at a planting distance of 30 cm × 15 cm with two seedlings per hill to an experimental field of the Faculty of Agriculture, Kochi University. Chemical fertilizers containing N, P₂O₅ and K₂O were applied at the nitrogen levels of 4 g/m², 9 g/m² and 18 g/m² in total being denoted by "N4", "N9" and "N18", respectively. Yield, yield components and other traits were measured. Ex delayed 80%-heading by 17 or 18 days in L as compared with E. In total brown rice yield (g/m²), L was 635, 606 and 590, and E was 577, 548 and 501, respectively, at N18, N9 and N4, indicating that Ex increased this trait by 10% to 18%. Ex increased yield-1.5 mm sieve (g/m²) b 9% to 15% at the three fertilizer levels. Ex increased the spikelet number per panicle by 16% to 22%. As a result, the spikelet number per m² was increased by 11% to 18% at the three fertilizer levels. Ex decreased 1000-grain weight (g) by 2 to 4%. L was not significantly different from E in ripened-grain percentage, fertilized-spikelet percentage and percentage of ripened grains to fertilized spikelets. Hence, it is inferred that Ex increased yield by increasing spikelet number per panicle. Hence, Ex could be utilized to develop high yielding varieties for warmer districts.

Keywords: heading time, lateness gene, photosensitivity, yield, yield components

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Authors: Moin Uddin, M. Masroor A. Khan, Faisal Rasheed, Tariq Ahmad Dar, Akbar Ali, Lalit Varshney

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Oligomers, obtained by exposing the natural polysaccharides (alginate, carrageenan, chitosan, etc.) to cobalt-60 generated gamma radiation may prove as potent plant growth promoters when applied as foliar sprays to the plants. They function as endogenous growth elicitors, triggering the synthesis of different enzymes and modulating various plant responses by exploiting the gene expression. Exogenous application of Jasmonic acid or of its methyl ester, methyl jasmonate (MeJ) has been reported to increase the secondary metabolites production in medicinal and aromatic plants. Keeping this in mind, three pot experiments were conducted to test whether the foliar application of irradiated-chitosan (IC) and MeJ, applied alone or in combination, could augment the active constituents as well as growth, physiological and yield attributes of Catharanthus roseus, which carries anticancer alkaloids, viz. vincristine and vinblastine, in its leaves in addition to various other useful alkaloids. Totally, 5 spray treatments, comprising various aqueous solutions of IC [20, 40, 80 and 160 mg L-1 (Experiment 1)], MeJ (10, 20, 30 and 40 mg L-1 (Experiment 2)] and those of IC+MeJ [40+20, 40+30, 80+20, 80+30, 160+20 and 160+30 mg L-1 (Experiment 3)], were applied at seven days interval. Total leaf-alkaloids content as well as growth, physiological and yield parameters, evaluated at 120 days after sowing, were significantly enhanced by IC application. IC application could not increase the leaf-content of vincristine and vinblastine; nonetheless, it significantly augmented the yield of these alkaloids owing to enhancing the dry mass of leaves per plant. MeJ application, particularly at 30 mg L-1, increased both content (17%) and yield (48%) of total leaf-alkaloids as well as the content and yield of vincristine ( 29 and 63%, respectively) and vinblastine (14 and 44%, respectively) alkaloids, though it significantly decreased most other parameters studied, particularly at higher concentrations (30 and 40 mg L-1 of MeJ). As compared to the control (water-spray treatment), collective application of IC (80 mg L-1) and MeJ (20 mg L-1) resulted in the highest values of most of the parameters studied. However, 80 mg L-1 of IC applied with 30 mg L-1 of MeJ gave the best results for the content and yield of total as well as anticancer leaf-alkaloids (vincristine and vinblastine). Comparing the control, it increased the content and yield of total leaf-alkaloids (37 and 118%, respectively) and those of vincristine (65 and 163%, respectively) and vinblastine (31 and 107%, respectively). Conclusively, the applied technique significantly enhanced the production of total as well as anticancer alkaloids of Catharanthus roseus.

Keywords: anticancer alkaloids (vincristine and vinblastine), catharanthus roseus, irradiated chitosan, methyl jasmonate

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Authors: Lydia Booney Jyrwa, Rabindra Nath Bhuyan

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Chocolate Mahseer (Neolissochilus hexagonolepis) is one of the Mahseer species inhabiting the North-eastern region of India and is a native species to the state of Meghalaya since it can adapt and grow well under the agro climatic conditions of the region. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The fish is considered as one of the endangered species of the Mahseer group, which is having tremendous scope for culture, sports and tourism. But non-availability of quality seed is a hindrance for the culture of this fish. Thus induced breeding of the fish by hormonal administration with pituitary gland and synthetic hormones is the only reliable method to procure the pure seed of the fish. Chocolate Mahseer was successfully bred at the Hatchery Complex, St. Anthony’s College, Shillong, Meghalaya by using pituitary extract and synthetic hormone viz. ovaprim, ovatide and gonopro-FH. The dose standardized is @ 4mg/kg body weight to both male and female as 1st dose and @ 7.9 mg/kg body weight only to female as 2nd dose for pituitary extract and single dose @ 0.8 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of both ovaprim and ovatide, while a single dose @ 0.9 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of gonopro-FH. The doses are standardized after a series of trial and error experiment performed. The fecundity of the fish was 3500 eggs/ kg body weight. The final hatching percentage achieved was 60%. The survival rate of hatchling was 50% up to fry stage. The use of synthetic hormone and positive response of the fish to the hormone will go in long way for production of quality seed of the fish which in turn help in culture of the species as the fish can be a very good candidate species for the culture in the state. This study will also help in the ranching of the fish in the natural habitat leading to conservation of the species. However, the study should be continued further for the large scale production of seeds.

Keywords: chocolate mahseer, induced breeding, pituitary extract, synthetic hormone

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Authors: Suehyun Cho, Darrell Harrington, Florent Cros, Olin Palmer, John Caputo, Michael Kardosh, Eran Oren, William Loudon, Alex Kiselyov, Michael Shpigelmacher

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Bionaut Labs, LLC is developing a minimally invasive robotic microdevice designed to treat non-communicating hydrocephalus in both adult and pediatric patients. The device utilizes biocompatible microsurgical particles (Bionaut™) that are specifically designed to safely and reliably perform accurate fenestration(s) in the 3rd ventricle, aqueduct of Sylvius, and/or trapped intraventricular cysts of the brain in order to re-establish normal cerebrospinal fluid flow dynamics and thereby balance and/or normalize intra/intercompartmental pressure. The Bionaut™ is navigated to the target via CSF or brain tissue in a minimally invasive fashion with precise control using real-time imaging. Upon reaching the pre-defined anatomical target, the external driver allows for directing the specific microsurgical action defined to achieve the surgical goal. Notable features of the proposed protocol are i) Bionaut™ access to the intraventricular target follows a clinically validated endoscopy trajectory which may not be feasible via ‘traditional’ rigid endoscopy: ii) the treatment is microsurgical, there are no foreign materials left behind post-procedure; iii) Bionaut™ is an untethered device that is navigated through the subarachnoid and intraventricular compartments of the brain, following pre-designated non-linear trajectories as determined by the safest anatomical and physiological path; iv) Overall protocol involves minimally invasive delivery and post-operational retrieval of the surgical Bionaut™. The approach is expected to be suitable to treat pediatric patients 0-12 months old as well as adult patients with obstructive hydrocephalus who fail traditional shunts or are eligible for endoscopy. Current progress, including platform optimization, Bionaut™ control, and real-time imaging and in vivo safety studies of the Bionauts™ in large animals, specifically the spine and the brain of ovine models, will be discussed.

Keywords: Bionaut™, cerebrospinal fluid, CSF, fenestration, hydrocephalus, micro-robot, microsurgery

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Authors: R. Horchani

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Optical pumping technique with laser fields combined with photo-association of ultra-cold atoms leads to control on demand the vibrational and/or the rotational population of molecules. Here, we review the basic concepts and main steps should be followed, including the excitation schemes and detection techniques we use to achieve the ro-vibrational cooling of Cs2 molecules. We also discuss the extension of this technique to other molecules. In addition, we present a theoretical model used to support the experiment. These simulations can be widely used for the preparation of various experiments since they allow the optimization of several important experimental parameters.

Keywords: cold molecule, photo-association, optical pumping, vibrational and rotational cooling

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Authors: Mir Ahmad Lashteh Neshaei, Hamed Afsoos Biria, Ata Ghabraei, Mir Abdolhamid Mehrdad

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Awareness of effective land using issues in coastal area including protection of natural ecosystems and coastal environment due to the increasing of human life along the coast is of great importance. There are numerous valuable structures and heritages which are located in defence sites and waterfront area. Marine structures such as groins, sea walls and detached breakwaters are constructed in coast to improve the coast stability against bed erosion due to changing wave and climate pattern. Marine mechanisms and interaction with the shore protection structures need to be intensively studied. Groins are one of the most prominent structures that are used in shore protection to create a safe environment for coastal area by maintaining the land against progressive coastal erosion. The main structural function of a groin is to control the long shore current and littoral sediment transport. This structure can be submerged and provide the necessary beach protection without negative environmental impact. However, for submerged structures adopted for beach protection, the shoreline response to these structures is not well understood at present. Nowadays, modelling and computer simulation are used to assess beach morphology in the vicinity of marine structures to reduce their environmental impact. The objective of this study is to predict the beach morphology in the vicinity of submerged groins and comparison with non-submerged groins with focus on a part of the coast located in Dahane sar Sefidrood, Guilan province, Iran where serious coast erosion has occurred recently. The simulations were obtained using a one-line model which can be used as a first approximation of shoreline prediction in the vicinity of groins. The results of the proposed model are compared with field measurements to determine the shape of the coast. Finally, the results of the present study show that using submerged groins can have a good efficiency to control the beach erosion without causing severe environmental impact to the coast. The important outcome from this study can be employed in optimum designing of defence sites in the coastal cities to improve their efficiency in terms of re-using the heritage lands.

Keywords: submerged structures, groin, shore protective structures, coastal cities

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Authors: Neda Orak, Mostafa Zarei

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Environmental assessment is an important session in environment management. Since various methods and techniques have been produces and implemented. Remote sensing (RS) is widely used in many scientific and research fields such as geology, cartography, geography, agriculture, forestry, land use planning, environment, etc. It can show earth surface objects cyclical changes. Also, it can show earth phenomena limits on basis of electromagnetic reflectance changes and deviations records. The research has been done on mangrove forests assessment by RS techniques. Mangrove forests quantitative analysis in Basatin and Bidkhoon estuaries was the aim of this research. It has been done by Landsat satellite images from 1975- 2013 and match to ground control points. This part of mangroves are the last distribution in northern hemisphere. It can provide a good background to improve better management on this important ecosystem. Landsat has provided valuable images to earth changes detection to researchers. This research has used MSS, TM, +ETM, OLI sensors from 1975, 1990, 2000, 2003-2013. Changes had been studied after essential corrections such as fix errors, bands combination, georeferencing on 2012 images as basic image, by maximum likelihood and IPVI Index. It was done by supervised classification. 2004 google earth image and ground points by GPS (2010-2012) was used to compare satellite images obtained changes. Results showed mangrove area in bidkhoon was 1119072 m2 by GPS and 1231200 m2 by maximum likelihood supervised classification and 1317600 m2 by IPVI in 2012. Basatin areas is respectively: 466644 m2, 88200 m2, 63000 m2. Final results show forests have been declined naturally. It is due to human activities in Basatin. The defect was offset by planting in many years. Although the trend has been declining in recent years again. So, it mentioned satellite images have high ability to estimation all environmental processes. This research showed high correlation between images and indexes such as IPVI and NDVI with ground control points.

Keywords: IPVI index, Landsat sensor, maximum likelihood supervised classification, Nayband National Park

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Muhammad Naveed, Sohail Yousaf, Zahir Ahmad Zahir, Birgit Mitter, Angela Sessitsch

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Most bacterial endophytes originate from the soil and enter plants via the roots followed by further spread through the inner tissues. The mechanisms allowing bacteria to colonize plants endophytically are still poorly understood for most bacterial and plant species. Specific bacterial functions are required for plant colonization, but also the plant itself is a determining factor as bacterial ability to establish endophytic populations is very often dependent on the plant genotype (cultivar) and inoculums density. The effect of inoculum density (107, 108, 109 CFU mL-1) of Burkholderia phytofirmans strain PsJN was evaluated on growth and endophytic colonization of different maize and potato cultivars under axenic and natural soil conditions. PsJN inoculation significantly increased maize seedling growth and tuber yield of potato at all inoculum density compared to uninoculated control. Under axenic condition, PsJN inoculation (108 CFU mL-1) significantly improved the germination, root/shoot length and biomass up to 62, 115, 98 and 135% of maize seedling compared to uninoculated control. In case of potato, PsJN inoculation (109 CFU mL-1) showed maximum response and significantly increased root/shoot biomass and tuber yield under natural soil condition. We confirmed that PsJN is able to colonize the rhizosphere, roots and shoots of maize and potato cultivars. The endophytic colonization increased linearly with increasing inoculum density (within a range of 8 x 104 – 3 x 107 CFU mL-1) and were highest for maize (Morignon) and potato (Romina) as compared to other cultivars. Efficient colonization of cv. Morignon and Romina by strain PsJN indicates the specific cultivar colonizing capacity of the bacteria. The findings of the study indicate the non-significant relationship between colonization and plant growth promotion in maize under axenic conditions. However, the inoculum level (109 CFU mL-1) that promoted colonization of rhizosphere and plant interior (endophytic) also best promoted growth and tuber yield of potato under natural soil conditions.

Keywords: crop genotype, inoculum density, Burkholderia phytofirmans PsJN, colonization, growth, potato

Procedia PDF Downloads 476

Authors: Yaroslav Pavlov

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In the modern world, ensuring quality has become increasingly important in various fields of human activity. One universal approach to quality management, proven effective in the food industry, is the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) concept. Based on principles of preventing potential hazards to consumers at all stages of production, from raw materials to the final product, HACCP offers a systematic approach to identifying, assessing risks, and managing critical control points (CCPs). Initially used primarily for food production, it was later effectively adapted to the food service sector. Implementing HACCP provides organizations with a reliable foundation for improving food safety, covering all links in the food chain from producer to consumer, making it an integral part of modern quality management systems. The main principles of HACCP—hazard identification, CCP determination, effective monitoring procedures, corrective actions, regular checks, and documentation—are universal and can be adapted to other areas. The adaptation of the HACCP concept is relevant for continuing professional education (CPE) with certain reservations. Specifically, it is reasonable to abandon the term ‘hazards’ as deviations in CCPs do not pose dangers, unlike in food production. However, the approach through CCP analysis and the use of HACCP's main principles for educational services are promising. This is primarily because it allows for identifying key CCPs based on the value creation model of a specific educational organization and consequently focusing efforts on specific CCPs to manage the quality of educational services. This methodology can be called the Analysis of Critical Points in Educational Services (ACPES). ACPES offers a similar approach to managing the quality of educational services, focusing on preventing and eliminating potential risks that could negatively impact the educational process, learners' achievement of set educational goals, and ultimately lead to students rejecting the organization's educational services. ACPES adapts proven HACCP principles to educational services, enhancing quality management effectiveness and student satisfaction. ACPES includes identifying potential problems at all stages of the educational process, from initial interest to graduation and career development. In ACPES, the term "hazards" is replaced with "problematic areas," reflecting the specific nature of the educational environment. Special attention is paid to determining CCPs—stages where corrective measures can most effectively prevent or minimize the risk of failing educational goals. The ACPES principles align with HACCP's principles, adjusted for the specificities of CPE. The method of the learner's journey map (variation of Customer Journey Map, CJM) can be used to overcome the complexity of formalizing the production chain in educational services. CJM provides a comprehensive understanding of the learner's experience at each stage, facilitating targeted and effective quality management. Thus, integrating the learner's journey map into ACPES represents a significant extension of the methodology's capabilities, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the educational process and forming an effective quality management system focused on meeting learners' needs and expectations.

Keywords: quality management, continuing professional education, customer journey map, HACCP

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Shruti Kohli

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The sophistication and pervasiveness of cyber-attacks are constantly growing, driven partly by technological progress, profitable applications in organized crime and state-sponsored innovation. The modernization of rail control systems has resulted in an increasing reliance on digital technology and increased the potential for security breaches and cyber-attacks. This research track showcases the need for developing a secure reusable scalable framework for enhancing cyber security of rail assets. A cyber security framework has been proposed that is being developed to detect the tell-tale signs of cyber-attacks against industrial assets.

Keywords: cyber security, rail asset, security threat, cyber ontology

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Tesfaye Alamirew Dessie

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Our study focuses on developing a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) and evaluating it against a traditional PID for a pasteurization process. Utilizing system identification from the experimental data, the dynamics of the pasteurization process were calculated. Using best fit with data validation, residual, and stability analysis, the quality of several model architectures was evaluated. The validation data fit the auto-regressive with exogenous input (ARX322) model of the pasteurization process by roughly 80.37 percent. The ARX322 model structure was used to create MPC and PID control techniques. After comparing controller performance based on settling time, overshoot percentage, and stability analysis, it was found that MPC controllers outperform PID for those parameters.

Keywords: MPC, PID, ARX, pasteurization

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: John M. Ikome

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In the process of manufacturing, a machine breakdown usually forces a modified flow shop out of the prescribed state, this strategy reschedules part of the initial schedule to match up with the pre-schedule at some point with the objective to create a schedule that is reliable with the other production planning decisions like material flow, production and suppliers by utilizing a critical decision-making concept. We propose a rescheduling strategy and a match-up point that will have a determination procedure through an advanced feedback control mechanism to increase both the schedule quality and stability. These approaches are compared with alternative re-scheduling methods under different experimental settings.

Keywords: scheduling, heuristics, branch, integrated

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Sabina-Adriana Floria, Marius Gavrilescu, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Neuroevolution is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to solve various problems in different application areas. Specifically, neuroevolution is a technique that applies biologically inspired methods to generate neural network architectures and optimize their parameters automatically. In this paper, we use different biologically inspired optimization algorithms in an ensemble strategy with the aim of training multilayer perceptron neural networks, resulting in regression models used to simulate the industrial chemical process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. In addition, the initial conditions that were taken into account during the design and commissioning of the installation can change over time, which leads to the need to add new mixes to adjust the operating conditions for the desired purpose, e.g., material properties and energy saving. The present approach follows the study by simulation of a process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials, i.e., the modeling and optimization of the process. Optimization aims to determine the working conditions that minimize the emissions represented by nitrogen monoxide. We first use a search procedure to find the best values for the parameters of various biologically inspired optimization algorithms. Then, we propose an adaptive ensemble strategy that uses only a subset of the best algorithms identified in the search stage. The adaptive ensemble strategy combines the results of selected algorithms and automatically assigns more processing capacity to the more efficient algorithms. Their efficiency may also vary at different stages of the optimization process. In a given ensemble iteration, the most efficient algorithms aim to maintain good convergence, while the less efficient algorithms can improve population diversity. The proposed adaptive ensemble strategy outperforms the individual optimizers and the non-adaptive ensemble strategy in convergence speed, and the obtained results provide lower error values.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, neuroevolution, ensembles, bricks, emission minimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: O. O. Aiyelokun, O. A. Agbede

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Numerical modelling of groundwater flow can be susceptible to calibration errors due to lack of adequate ground-based hydro-metrological stations in river basins. Groundwater resources management in Southwest Nigeria is currently challenged by overexploitation, lack of planning and monitoring, urbanization and climate change; hence to adopt models as decision support tools for sustainable management of groundwater; they must be adequately calibrated. Since river basins in Southwest Nigeria are characterized by missing data, and lack of adequate ground-based hydro-meteorological stations; the need for adopting satellite-based data for constructing distributed models is crucial. This study seeks to evaluate the suitability of satellite-based data as substitute for ground-based, for computing boundary conditions; by determining if ground and satellite based meteorological data fit well in Ogun and Oshun River basins. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset was firstly obtained in daily form and converted to monthly form for the period of 432 months (January 1979 to June, 2014). Afterwards, ground-based meteorological data for Ikeja (1981-2010), Abeokuta (1983-2010), and Oshogbo (1981-2010) were compared with CFSR data using Goodness of Fit (GOF) statistics. The study revealed that based on mean absolute error (MEA), coefficient of correlation, (r) and coefficient of determination (R²); all meteorological variables except wind speed fit well. It was further revealed that maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall had high range of index of agreement (d) and ratio of standard deviation (rSD), implying that CFSR dataset could be used to compute boundary conditions such as groundwater recharge and potential evapotranspiration. The study concluded that satellite-based data such as the CFSR should be used as input when constructing groundwater flow models in river basins in Southwest Nigeria, where majority of the river basins are partially gaged and characterized with long missing hydro-metrological data.

Keywords: boundary condition, goodness of fit, groundwater, satellite-based data

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Rendong Cai, Bei Peng, Yanping Dong

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In risk decision making, individuals are found to be susceptible to 'frames': people tend to be risk averse when the choice is described in terms of potential 'gains' (gain frame), whereas they tend to be risk seeking when the same choice is described in terms of potential 'losses' (loss frame); this effect is termed the framing effect. The framing effect has been well documented and some studies even find a developmental reversal in the framing effect: The more experience an individual has in a certain field, the easier for him to be influenced by the frame relevant to the field, resulting in greater decision inconsistency. Recent studies reported that using a foreign language can reduce the framing effect. However, it is not clear whether foreign language use can overcome the developmental reversal in the framing effect. The present study investigated three potential factors that may influence the developmental reversal in the framing effect: specialized knowledge of the participants, the language in which the problem is presented, and the types of problems. The present study examined the decision making behavior of 188 Chinese-English bilinguals who majored in Finance, with a group of 277 English majors as the control group. They were asked to solve a financial problem (experimental condition) and a life problem (control condition). Each problem was presented in one of the following four versions: native language-gain frame, foreign language-gain frame, native language-loss frame, and foreign language-loss frame. Results revealed that for the life problem, under the native condition, both groups were affected by the frame; but under the foreign condition, this framing effect disappeared for the financial majors. This confirmed that foreign language use modulates framing effects in general decision making, which served as an effective baseline. For the financial problem, under the native condition, only the financial major was observed to be influenced by the frame, which was a developmental reversal; under the foreign condition, however, this framing effect disappeared. The results provide further empirical evidence for the universal of the developmental reversal in risky decision making. More importantly, the results suggest that using a foreign language can overcome such reversal, which has implications for the reduction of decision biases in professionals. The findings also shed new light on the complex interaction between general decision-making and bilingualism.

Keywords: the foreign language effect, developmental reversals, the framing effect, bilingualism

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: A. H. Dikko, D. N Tsado, M. S. T. Rita, D. S. Umar

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This study was conducted on eighteen (18) New Zealand and chinchilla breeds of rabbits were used. The rabbits were allotted to 3 treatments with each treatment having six (6) animals with two (2) replicates. T1 were castrated, which both testes was removed (Bilateral); T2 were castrated, which only one testes was removed (unilateral) and T3 were not castrated (control). In nutrient digestibility, T1 and T2 (p>0.05) has a higher rate than T3. There was no significant (p<0.05) difference in live weight and dressing weight among the treatment groups. There is a significant (p > 0.05) difference in visceral organs in the treatment groups.

Keywords: New Zealand, chinchilla, castration, bilateral, unilateral

Procedia PDF Downloads 626

Authors: Khalid Mahmoud Gaafar

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In human diets , ω-6 and ω-3 are important essential fatty acids for immunity and health. However, considerable alteration in dietary patterns and contents has resulted in change of the consumption of such fatty acids ,with subsequent increase in the consumption of ω-6 fatty acids and a marked decrease in the consumption of ω-3 fatty acids. This dietary alteration has led to an imbalance in the ratio for ω-6/ω-3, which at 20:1 now differs considerably from the original ratio (1:1). Therefore, dietary supplements such as eggs and meat enriched with omega 3 are necessary to increase the consumption of ω-3 to meet the recommended need for ω-3. Foods that supply ω-6 fatty acids include soybean, palm , sunflower, and rapeseed oils, whereas foods that supply ω-3 fatty acids such as linseed and fish oils. Lin seed oils contain Alpha – linolenic acid (ALA), which can be converted to DHA and EPA in the birds body, with linseed oil containing more than 50% ALA. On the other hand, high doses of omega 6 sources in the diet may have deleterious effects on humans. Maintaining an optimum ratio of ω-3 and ω-6fatty acids not only improves performance but also prevents these health risks. The ratio of n-6:ω-3 fatty acids also plays an important role in the immune response, production performance of broilers and designing meat enriched with ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Birds of three experimental groups fed on basal starter (0-2nd weeks), grower (3rd -4th weeks) and finisher (5th week) rations. The first is control group fed during the grower-finisher periods on basic diet with two replicate (one fed on basic diet contain vegetable oil and the other don’t) without any additives. The three experimental groups (T1 – T2 –T3) fed during the grower- finisher periods on diets free from vegetable oils and contain of 5% of extruded mixture of soybean and linseed (60%:40%). The second (T2) and third (T3) experimental groups supplemented with vitamin B12 and enzyme mixture. The first experimental groups don’t receive vitamins or enzymes. The obtained results showed a significant increased growth performance, immune response, highest antioxidant activity and serum HDL with lowest serum LDL and triglycerides levels in all experimental groups compared with control group, which was highly significant in group fed on vitamin B6.

Keywords: omega fatty acids, broiler, feeding, human health, growth performance, immunity

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 340