Search results for: statistical physics

Authors: Inayatullah Khan, Afzal Khan, Hamzullah Khan, Afzal Khan

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Objectives: The objective of this study was to compare different statistical variables for vaccinated and unvaccinated children in measles cases. Material and Methods: This cross sectional comparative study was conducted at Isolation ward, Department of Paediatrics, Lady Reading Hospital (LRH), Peshawar, from April 2012 to March 2013. A total of 566 admitted cases of measles were enrolled. Data regarding age, sex, address, vaccination status, measles contact, hospital stay and outcome was collected and recorded on a proforma. History of measles vaccination was ascertained either by checking the vaccination cards or on parental recall. Result: In 566 cases of measles, 211(39%) were vaccinated and 345 (61%) were unvaccinated. Three hundred and ten (54.80%) patients were males and 256 (45.20%) were females with a male to female ratio of 1.2:1.The age range was from 1 year to 14 years with mean age with SD of 3.2 +2 years. Majority (371, 65.5%) of the patients were 1-3 years old. Mean hospital stay was 3.08 days with a range of 1-10 days and a standard deviation of ± 1.15. History of measles contact was present in 393 (69.4%) cases. Fourty eight patients were expired with a mortality rate of 8.5%. Conclusion: Majority of the children in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa are unvaccinated and unprotected against measles. Among vaccinated children, 39% of children attracted measles which indicate measles vaccine failure. This figure is clearly higher than that accepted for measles vaccine (2-10%).

Keywords: measles, vaccination, immunity, population

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Authors: K. Y. S. Putri, Heri Fathurahman, Yuki Surisita, Widi Sagita, Kiki Dwi Arviani

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Society needs the assistance of academics in understanding and being skilled in health communication literacy. Information technology runs very fast while health communication literacy skills in getting health communication information during the pandemic are not as fast as the development of information technology. The research question is whether there is an influence of health communication on information technology in health information during the pandemic in Indonesia. The purpose of the study is to find out the influence of health communication on information technology in health information during the pandemic in Indonesia. The concepts of health communication literacy and information technology are used this study. Previous research is in support of this study. Quantitative research methods by disseminating questionnaires in this study. The validity and reliability test of this study is positive, so it can proceed to the next statistical analysis. Descriptive results of variable health communication literacy are of positive value in all dimensions. All dimensions of information technology are of positive value. Statistical tests of the influence of health communication literacy on information technology are of great value. Discussion of both variables in the influence of health communication literacy and high-value information technology because health communication literacy has a high effect in information technology. Respondents to this study have high information technology skills. So that health communication literacy in obtaining health information during the 2019-2022 pandemic is needed. Research advice is that academics are still very much needed by the community in the development of society during the pandemic.

Keywords: health information, health information needs, literacy health communication, information technology

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Authors: Hatice Karakoyun, Mustafa Akdag

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This study has been made to examine the attitudes of pre-school teachers towards values education. The study has been made as a general scanning model. The study’s working group contains 108 pre-school teachers who worked in Diyarbakır, Turkey. In this study Values Education Attitude Scale (VEAS), which developed by Yaşaroğlu (2014), was used. In order to analyze the data for sociodemographic structure, percentage and frequency values were examined. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov method was used in determination of the normal distribution of data. During analyzing the data, KolmogorovSimirnov test and the normal curved histograms were examined to determine which statistical analyzes would be applied on the scale and it was found that the distribution was not normal. Thus, the Mann Whitney U analysis technique which is one of the nonparametric statistical analysis techniques were used to test the difference of the scores obtained from the scale in terms of independent variables. According to the analyses, it seems that pre-school teachers’ attitudes toward values education are positive. According to the scale with the highest average, it points out that pre-school teachers think that values education is very important for students’ and children’s future. The variables included in the scale (gender, seniority, age group, education, school type, school place) seem to have no effect on the pre-school teachers’ attitude grades which joined to the study.

Keywords: attitude scale, pedagogy, pre-school teacher, values education

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Authors: Tobias Strübing, Fatemeh Ziaeetabar

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Humans usually manipulate objects with their hands. To represent these actions in a simple and understandable way, we need to use a semantic framework. For this purpose, the Semantic Event Chain (SEC) method has already been presented which is done by consideration of touching and non-touching relations between manipulated objects in a scene. This method was improved by a computational model, the so-called enriched Semantic Event Chain (eSEC), which incorporates the information of static (e.g. top, bottom) and dynamic spatial relations (e.g. moving apart, getting closer) between objects in an action scene. This leads to a better action prediction as well as the ability to distinguish between more actions. Each eSEC manipulation descriptor is a huge matrix with thirty rows and a massive set of the spatial relations between each pair of manipulated objects. The current eSEC framework has so far only been used in the category of manipulation actions, which eventually involve two hands. Here, we would like to extend this approach to a whole body action descriptor and make a conjoint activity representation structure. For this purpose, we need to do a statistical analysis to modify the current eSEC by summarizing while preserving its features, and introduce a new version called Enhanced eSEC or (e2SEC). This summarization can be done from two points of the view: 1) reducing the number of rows in an eSEC matrix, 2) shrinking the set of possible semantic spatial relations. To achieve these, we computed the importance of each matrix row in an statistical way, to see if it is possible to remove a particular one while all manipulations are still distinguishable from each other. On the other hand, we examined which semantic spatial relations can be merged without compromising the unity of the predefined manipulation actions. Therefore by performing the above analyses, we made the new e2SEC framework which has 20% fewer rows, 16.7% less static spatial and 11.1% less dynamic spatial relations. This simplification, while preserving the salient features of a semantic structure in representing actions, has a tremendous impact on the recognition and prediction of complex actions, as well as the interactions between humans and robots. It also creates a comprehensive platform to integrate with the body limbs descriptors and dramatically increases system performance, especially in complex real time applications such as human-robot interaction prediction.

Keywords: enriched semantic event chain, semantic action representation, spatial relations, statistical analysis

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Authors: Zahra Mehrabbeygi

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This research is opted to analyze and survey discourse variety and news image-making in western media regarding the news coverage of the Russian army intrusion into Ukraine. This research will be done on the news coverage of Ukraine in a period from February 2022 to May 2022 in five western media, "BBC, CBS, NBC, Al Jazeera, and Telegraph." This research attempts to discover some facts about the news policies of the five western news agencies during the circumstances of the Ukraine-Russia war. Critical theories in the news, such as Framing, Media Imperialism of News, Image Making, Discourse, and Ideology, were applied to achieve this goal. The research methodology uses Van Dijk's discourse exploration method based on discourse analysis. The research's statistical population is related to all the news about racial discrimination during the mentioned period. After a statistical population survey with Targeted Sampling, the researcher randomly selected ten news cases for exploration. The research findings show that the western media have similarities in their texts via lexical items, polarization, citations, persons, and institutions. The research findings also imply pre-suppositions, connotations, and components of consensus agreement and underlying predicates in the outset, middle, and end events. The reaction of some western media not only shows their bewilderment but also exposes their prejudices rooted in racism.

Keywords: news discourse analysis, western media, racial discrimination, Ukraine-Russia war

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Authors: Hassan Qandil

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Using a statistical algorithm incorporated in MATLAB, four types of non-imaging Fresnel lenses are designed; spot-flat, linear-flat, dome-shaped and semi-cylindrical-shaped. The optimization employs a statistical ray-tracing methodology of the incident light, mainly considering effects of chromatic aberration, varying focal lengths, solar inclination and azimuth angles, lens and receiver apertures, and the optimum number of prism grooves. While adopting an equal-groove-width assumption of the Poly-methyl-methacrylate (PMMA) prisms, the main target is to maximize the ray intensity on the receiver’s aperture and therefore achieving higher values of heat flux. The algorithm outputs prism angles and 2D sketches. 3D drawings are then generated via AutoCAD and linked to COMSOL Multiphysics software to simulate the lenses under solar ray conditions, which provides optical and thermal analysis at both the lens’ and the receiver’s apertures while setting conditions as per the Dallas-TX weather data. Once the lenses’ characterization is finalized, receivers are designed based on its optimized aperture size. Several cavity shapes; including triangular, arc-shaped and trapezoidal, are tested while coupled with a variety of receiver materials, working fluids, heat transfer mechanisms, and enclosure designs. A vacuum-reflective enclosure is also simulated for an enhanced thermal absorption efficiency. Each receiver type is simulated via COMSOL while coupled with the optimized lens. A lab-scale prototype for the optimum lens-receiver configuration is then fabricated for experimental evaluation. Application-based testing is also performed for the selected configuration, including that of a photovoltaic-thermal cogeneration system and solar furnace system. Finally, some future research work is pointed out, including the coupling of the collector-receiver system with an end-user power generator, and the use of a multi-layered genetic algorithm for comparative studies.

Keywords: COMSOL, concentrator, energy, fresnel, optics, renewable, solar

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Authors: Hamid Reza Zeraatpisheh, Ali Akbar Heidari, Soleiman Mohammadi Doust

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This study has examined the relationship between place attachment and sustainable development of urban spaces. To perform this, the components of place identity, emotional attachment, place attachment and social bonding which totally constitute the output of place attachment, by means of the standardized questionnaire measure place attachment in three domains of (cognitive) the place identity, (affective) emotional attachment and (behavioral) place attachment and social bonding. To measure sustainable development, three components of sustainable development, including society, economy and environment has been considered. The study is descriptive. The assessment instrument is the standard questionnaire of Safarnia which has been used to measure the variable of place attachment and to measure the variable of sustainable development, a questionnaire has been made by the researcher and been based on the combined theoretical framework. The statistical population of this research has been the city of Shiraz. The statistical sample has been Hafeziyeh. SPSS software has been used to analyze the data and examined the results of both descriptive and inferential statistics. In inferential statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient has been used to examine the hypotheses. In this study, the variable of place attachment is high and sustainable development is also in a high level. These results suggest a positive relationship between attachment to place and sustainable development.

Keywords: place attachment, sustainable development, economy-society-environment, Hafez's tomb

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Authors: Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac Kuzmanović

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The relationship between antibacterial activity of eighteen different substituted benzimidazole derivatives and their molecular characteristics was studied using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on inhibitory activity towards Staphylococcus aureus, by using molecular descriptors, as well as minimal inhibitory activity (MIC). Molecular descriptors were calculated from the optimized structures. Principal component analysis (PCA) followed by hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) was performed in order to select molecular descriptors that best describe the antibacterial behavior of the compounds investigated, and to determine the similarities between molecules. The HCA grouped the molecules in separated clusters which have the similar inhibitory activity. PCA showed very similar classification of molecules as the HCA, and displayed which descriptors contribute to that classification. MLR equations, that represent MIC as a function of the in silico molecular descriptors were established. The statistical significance of the estimated models was confirmed by standard statistical measures and cross-validation parameters (SD = 0.0816, F = 46.27, R = 0.9791, R2CV = 0.8266, R2adj = 0.9379, PRESS = 0.1116). These parameters indicate the possibility of application of the established chemometric models in prediction of the antibacterial behaviour of studied derivatives and structurally very similar compounds.

Keywords: antibacterial, benzimidazole, molecular descriptors, QSAR

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Authors: Yan-Chi Chen

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This study aims to investigate the 1st personal pronouns as evasive devices used by presidential candidates in the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Debate within the framework of critical discourse analysis (CDA). This study finds that the personal pronoun ‘I’ is the highest frequent personal pronoun in the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Debate. Generally speaking, the first personal pronouns were used most in the presidential debate, compared with the second and the third personal pronouns. Hence, a further quantitative analysis is conducted to explore the correlation between the frequencies of the two 1st personal pronouns and the other pronouns. Results show that the number of the personal pronoun ‘I’ increases from 26 to 49, with the personal pronoun ‘we’ decreases from 43 to 15 during the debate. Though it seems the personal pronoun ‘I’ has a higher tendency in pronominal choice, statistical evidence demonstrated that the personal pronoun ‘we’ has the greater statistical significance (p<0.0002), compared with that of ‘I’ (p<0.0116). The comparatively small p-value of the personal pronoun ‘we’ means it ‘has a stronger correlation with the overall pronominal choice, and the personal pronoun ‘we’ is more likely to be used than the personal pronoun ‘I’. Therefore, this study concludes that the pronominal choice varies with different evasive strategies. The ingrained functions of these personal pronouns are mainly categorized as ‘agreement’ and ‘justification’. The personal pronoun ’we’ is preferred in the agreement evasive strategies, and ‘I’ is used for justifying oneself. In addition, the personal pronoun ‘we’ can be defined as both ‘inclusive’ and ‘exclusive’ personal pronoun, which rendered ‘we’ more functions not limited to agreement evasive strategies. In conclusion, although the personal pronoun ‘I’ has the highest occurrences, the personal pronoun ‘we’ is more related to the first pronoun choices.

Keywords: critical discourse analysis (CDA), evasive devices, the 1st personal pronouns, the 2016 Taiwanese Presidential Debate

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Authors: Atoui Oussama, Maazoun Azer, Belkassem Bachir, Pyl Lincy, Lecompte David

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For many decades, researchers have been focused on understanding the dynamic behavior of different structures and materials subjected to fragment impact or blast loads separately. The explosion mechanics, as well as the impact physics studies dealing with the numerical modeling of the response of protective structures under the synergistic effect of a blast wave and the impact of fragments, are quite limited in the literature. This article numerically evaluates the nonlinear dynamic behavior and damage mechanisms of Aluminum plates EN AW-1050A- H24 under different combined loading scenarios varied by the sequence of the applied loads using the commercial software LS-DYNA. For one hand, with respect to the terminal ballistic field investigations, a Lagrangian (LAG) formulation is used to evaluate the different failure modes of the target material in case of a fragment impact. On the other hand, with respect to the blast field analysis, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation is considered to study the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) of the shock wave and the plate in case of a blast loading. Four different loading scenarios are considered: (1) only blast loading, (2) only fragment impact, (3) blast loading followed by a fragment impact and (4) a fragment impact followed by blast loading. From the numerical results, it was observed that when the impact load is applied to the plate prior to the blast load, it suffers more severe damage due to the hole enlargement phenomenon and the effects of crack propagation on the circumference of the damaged zone. Moreover, it was found that the hole from the fragment impact loading was enlarged to about three times in diameter as compared to the diameter of the projectile. The validation of the proposed computational model is based in part on previous experimental data obtained by the authors and in the other part on experimental data obtained from the literature. A good correspondence between the numerical and experimental results is found.

Keywords: computational analysis, combined loading, explosion mechanics, hole enlargement phenomenon, impact physics, synergistic effect, terminal ballistic

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Surajit Bhattacharya, Daniel Veltri, Atit A. Patel, Daniel N. Cox

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miRNAs have emerged as key post-transcriptional regulators of gene expression, however identification of biologically-relevant target genes for this epigenetic regulatory mechanism remains a significant challenge. To address this knowledge gap, we have developed a novel tool in R, Intra-miR-ExploreR, that facilitates integrated discovery of miRNA targets by incorporating target databases and novel target prediction algorithms, using statistical methods including Pearson and Distance Correlation on microarray data, to arrive at high confidence intragenic miRNA target predictions. We have explored the efficacy of this tool using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism for bioinformatics analyses and functional validation. A number of putative targets were obtained which were also validated using qRT-PCR analysis. Additional features of the tool include downloadable text files containing GO analysis from DAVID and Pubmed links of literature related to gene sets. Moreover, we are constructing interaction maps of intragenic miRNAs, using both micro array and RNA-seq data, focusing on neural tissues to uncover regulatory codes via which these molecules regulate gene expression to direct cellular development.

Keywords: miRNA, miRNA:mRNA target prediction, statistical methods, miRNA:mRNA interaction network

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Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

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This paper introduces a family of fourth-order hybrid beta polynomial kernels developed for statistical analysis. The assessment of these kernels' performance centers on two critical metrics: asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and kernel efficiency. Through the utilization of both simulated and real-world datasets, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted, facilitating a thorough comparison with conventional fourth-order polynomial kernels. The evaluation procedure encompassed the computation of AMISE and efficiency values for both the proposed hybrid kernels and the established classical kernels. The consistently observed trend was the superior performance of the hybrid kernels when compared to their classical counterparts. This trend persisted across diverse datasets, underscoring the resilience and efficacy of the hybrid approach. By leveraging these performance metrics and conducting evaluations on both simulated and real-world data, this study furnishes compelling evidence in favour of the superiority of the proposed hybrid beta polynomial kernels. The discernible enhancement in performance, as indicated by lower AMISE values and higher efficiency scores, strongly suggests that the proposed kernels offer heightened suitability for statistical analysis tasks when compared to traditional kernels.

Keywords: AMISE, efficiency, fourth-order Kernels, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation

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Authors: Zengmin Tian, Bin Lv, Rui Hui, Yupeng Liu, Chuan Wang, Qing Liu, Hongyu Li, Yan Qi, Li Song

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Objective Robot was used for replacement of the frame in recent years. The paper is to investigate the safety and effectiveness of frameless stereotactic surgery in the treatment of children with cerebral palsy. Methods Clinical data of 425 children with spastic cerebral palsy were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were treated with robot-assistant frameless stereotactic surgery of nuclear mass destruction. The motor function was evaluated by gross motor function measure-88 (GMFM-88) before the operation, 1 week and 3 months after the operation respectively. The statistical analysis was performed. Results The postoperative CT showed that the destruction area covered the predetermined target in all the patients. Minimal bleeding of puncture channel occurred in 2 patient, and mild fever in 3 cases. Otherwise, there was no severe surgical complication occurred. The GMFM-88 scores were 49.1±22.5 before the operation, 52.8±24.2 and 64.2±21.4 at the time of 1 week and 3 months after the operation, respectively. There was statistical difference between before and after the operation (P<0.01). After 3 months, the total effective rate was 98.1%, and the average improvement rate of motor function was 24.3% . Conclusion Replaced the traditional frame, the robot-assistant frameless stereotactic surgery is safe and reliable for children with spastic cerebral palsy, which has positive significance in improving patients’ motor function.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, robotics, stereotactic techniques, frameless operation

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Authors: Samuel Matylewicz, K. W. Goossen

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The deployment of white or cool (high albedo) roofing is a common energy savings recommendation for a variety of buildings all over the world. Here, the effect of a white roof on the energy savings of an ice rink facility in the northeastern US is determined by measuring the effect of solar irradiance on the consumption of the rink's ice refrigeration system. The consumption of the refrigeration system was logged over a year, along with multiple weather vectors, and a statistical model was applied. The experimental model indicates that the expected savings of replacing the existing grey roof with a white roof on the consumption of the refrigeration system is only 4.7 %. This overall result of the statistical model is confirmed with isolated instances of otherwise similar weather days, but cloudy vs. sunny, where there was no measurable difference in refrigeration consumption up to the noise in the local data, which was a few percent. This compares with a simple theoretical calculation that indicates 30% savings. The difference is attributed to a lack of convective cooling of the roof in the theoretical model. The best experimental model shows a relative effect of the weather vectors dry bulb temperature, solar irradiance, wind speed, and relative humidity on refrigeration consumption of 1, 0.026, 0.163, and -0.056, respectively. This result can have an impact on decisions to apply white roofing to refrigerated buildings in general.

Keywords: cool roofs, solar cooling load, refrigerated buildings, energy-efficient building envelopes

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Adel M. Qatawneh

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This paper aimed to determine the importance of knowledge innovation for external audit on anti-corruption in the entire Jordanian bank companies are listed in Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). The study importance arises from the need to recognize the Knowledge innovation for external audit and anti-corruption as the development in the world of business, the variables that will be affected by external audit innovation are: reliability of financial data, relevantly of financial data, consistency of the financial data, Full disclosure of financial data and protecting the rights of investors to achieve the objectives of the study a questionnaire was designed and distributed to the society of the Jordanian bank are listed in Amman Stock Exchange. The data analysis found out that the banks in Jordan have a positive importance of Knowledge innovation for external audit on anti-corruption. They agree on the benefit of Knowledge innovation for external audit on anti-corruption. The statistical analysis showed that Knowledge innovation for external audit had a positive impact on the anti-corruption and that external audit has a significantly statistical relationship with anti-corruption, reliability of financial data, consistency of the financial data, a full disclosure of financial data and protecting the rights of investors.

Keywords: knowledge innovation, external audit, anti-corruption, Amman Stock Exchange

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Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Kamyar Yaghmaeian, Ali Arab Aradani, Mahmood Alimohammadi

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The main route of fluoride uptake is drinking water. Fluoride absorption in the acceptable range (0.5-1.5 mg L-¹) is suitable for the body, but it's too much consumption can have irreversible health effects. To compare fluoride concentration with the WHO guidelines, 112 water samples were taken from groundwater aquifers in 22 villages of Garmsar County, the central part of Iran, during 2018 to 2019.Fluoride concentration was measured by the SPANDS method, and its non-carcinogenic impacts were calculated using EDI and HQ. The statistical population was divided into four categories of infant, children, teenagers, and adults. Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation coefficient tests were used to investigate the relationships between the well's depth and fluoride concentration in the water samples. The annual mean concentrations of fluoride in 2018 and2019 were 0.75 and 0.64 mg -¹ and, the fluoride mean concentration in the samples classifying the cold and hot seasons of the studied years was 0.709 and 0.689 mg L-¹, respectively. The amount of fluoride in 27% of the samples in both years was less than the acceptable minimum (0.5 mg L-¹). Also, 11% of the samples in2018 (6 samples) had fluoride levels higher than 1.5 mg L-¹. The HQ showed that the children were vulnerable; teenagers and adults were in the next ranks, respectively. Statistical tests showed a reverse and significant correlation (R2 = 0.02, < 0.0001) between well depth and fluoride content. The border between the usefulness/harmfulness of fluoride is very narrow and requires extensive studies.

Keywords: fluoride, groundwater, health risk assessment, hazard quotient, Garmsar

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Ghazi Faisal Najmuldeen, Wahida Amat-Fadzil, Zulkafli Hassan, Jinan B. Al-Dabbagh

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the optimum fabrication process variables to produce particleboards from oil palm fronds (OPF) particles and empty fruit bunch fiber (EFB). Response surface methodology was employed to analyse the effect of hot press temperature (150–190°C); press time (3–7 minutes) and EFB blending ratio (0–40%) on particleboards modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, internal bonding, water absorption and thickness swelling. A Box-Behnken experimental design was carried out to develop statistical models used for the optimisation of the fabrication process variables. All factors were found to be statistically significant on particleboards properties. The statistical analysis indicated that all models showed significant fit with experimental results. The optimum particleboards properties were obtained at optimal fabrication process condition; press temperature; 186°C, press time; 5.7 min and EFB / OPF ratio; 30.4%. Incorporating of oil palm frond and empty fruit bunch to produce particleboards has improved the particleboards properties. The OPF–EFB particleboards fabricated at optimized conditions have satisfied the ANSI A208.1–1999 specification for general purpose particleboards.

Keywords: empty fruit bunch fiber, oil palm fronds, particleboards, response surface methodology

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Authors: Kathaleeya Chanda, Panupong Chanplin, Suppara Charoenpoom

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This purposes of the development of creative instruction model through digital media are to: 1) enable learners to learn from instruction media application; 2) help learners implementing instruction media correctly and appropriately; and 3) facilitate learners to apply technology for searching information and practicing skills to implement technology creatively. The sample group consists of 130 cases of secondary students studying in Bo Kluea School, Bo Kluea Nuea Sub-district, Bo Kluea District, Nan Province. The probability sampling was selected through the simple random sampling and the statistics used in this research are percentage, mean, standard deviation and one group pretest – posttest design. The findings are summarized as follows: The congruence index of instruction media for occupation and technology subjects is appropriate. By comparing between learning achievements before implementing the instruction media and learning achievements after implementing the instruction media, it is found that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. For the learning achievements from instruction media implementation, pretest mean is 16.24 while posttest mean is 26.28. Besides, pretest and posttest results are compared and differences of mean are tested, the test results show that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. This can be interpreted that the learners achieve better learning progress.

Keywords: teaching learning model, digital media, creative instruction model, Bo Kluea school

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Authors: Jindriska Svobodova, Jan Novotny

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A teacher’s attitude to creativity plays an essential role in the thinking development of his/her students. The purpose of this study is to understand if a science teacher's personal creativity can modify his/her ability to produce various kinds of questions. This research used an education activity based on cosmic sketches and pictures by K.E. Tsiolkovsky, the founder of astronautics, to explore if any relationship between individual creativity and the asking questions skill exists. As a screening instrument, which allows an assessment of the respondent's creative potential, a common test of creative thinking was used. The results of the creativity test and the diversity of the questions are mentioned.

Keywords: science education, active learning, physics teaching, religious cosmology

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Authors: Pedram Saadati, Zahra Nazari

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In the last decade, the role and importance of knowledge-based technological businesses in the insurance industry has greatly increased, and due to the weakness of previous studies in Iran, the current research deals with the design of the InsurTech empowerment model. In order to obtain the conceptual model of the research, a hybrid framework has been used. The statistical population of the research in the qualitative part were experts, and in the quantitative part, the InsurTech activists. The tools of data collection in the qualitative part were in-depth and semi-structured interviews and structured self-interaction matrix, and in the quantitative part, a researcher-made questionnaire. In the qualitative part, 55 indicators, 20 components and 8 concepts (dimensions) were obtained by the content analysis method, then the relationships of the concepts with each other and the levels of the components were investigated. In the quantitative part, the information was analyzed using the descriptive analytical method in the way of path analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. The proposed model consists of eight dimensions of supporter capability, supervisor of insurance innovation ecosystem, managerial, financial, technological, marketing, opportunity identification, innovative InsurTech capabilities. The results of statistical tests in identifying the relationships of the concepts with each other have been examined in detail and suggestions have been presented in the conclusion section.

Keywords: insurTech, knowledge-base, empowerment model, factor analysis, insurance

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Authors: Cansu Arslan Turan, Tuba Cimilli Ozturk, Ebru Unal Akoglu, Kemal Aygun, Ecem Deniz Kırkpantur, Ozge Ecmel Onur

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Although the mechanism of action is not well known, Intravenous Lipid Emulsion (ILE) has been shown to be effective in the treatment of lipophilic drug intoxications. It is thought that ILE probably separate the lipophilic drugs from target tissue by creating a lipid-rich compartment in the plasma. The second theory is that ILE provides energy to myocardium with high dose free fatty acids activating the voltage gated calcium channels in the myocytes. In this study, the effects of ILE treatment on digoxin overdose which are frequently observed in emergency departments was searched in an animal model in terms of cardiac side effects and survival. The study was carried out at Yeditepe University, Faculty of Medicine-Experimental Animals Research Center Labs in December 2015. 40 Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 300-400 g were divided into 5 groups randomly. As the pre-treatment, the first group received saline, the second group received lipid, the third group received DigiFab, and the fourth group received DigiFab and lipid. Following that, digoxin was infused to all groups until death except the control group. First arrhythmia and cardiac arrest occurrence times were recorded. As no medication causing arrhythmia was infused, Group 5 was excluded from the statistical analysis performed for the comparisons of first arrhythmia and death time. According to the results although there was no significant difference in the statistical analysis comparing the four groups, as the rats, only exposed to digoxin intoxication were compared with the rats pre-treated with ILE in terms of first arrhythmia time and cardiac arrest occurrence times, significant difference was observed between the groups. According to our results, using DigiFab treatment, intralipid treatment, intralipid and DigiFab treatment for the rats exposed to digoxin intoxication makes no significant difference in terms of the first arrhythmia and death occurrence time. However, it is not possible to say that at the doses we use in the study, ILE treatment might be successful at least as a known antidote. The fact that the statistical significance between the two groups is not observed in the inter-comparisons of all the groups, the study should be repeated in the larger groups.

Keywords: arrhytmia, cardiac arrest, DigiFab, digoxin intoxication

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Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Fabio Luis Maciel Machado, Henrique Andrade, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andrea Parreira

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The large variation in the price of diesel in Brazil directly affects the variable cost of companies operating in the transportation sector. In rail transport, the great challenge is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported with cost reduction in relation to previous years, becoming more efficient every year. Some effective measures are necessary to achieve the reduction of the liter ratio consumed by KTKB (Gross Ton per Kilometer multiplied by thousand). This acronym represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in the world. This study is divided into two parts: the first, to identify using statistical tools, part of the controlled variables in the railways, which have a correlation with the energy efficiency indicator, seeking to aid decision-making. The second, with the use of the train dynamics simulator, within scenarios defined in the operational reality of a railroad, seeks to optimize the train formations and the train stop model for the change of train drivers. With the completion of the study, companies in the rail sector are expected to be able to reduce some of their transportation costs.

Keywords: railway transport, railway simulation, energy efficiency, fuel consumption

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Authors: Mehmet Erdi Korkmaz, Mustafa Günay

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Nowadays, grinding is frequently replaced with hard turning for reducing set up time and higher accuracy. This paper focused on mathematical modeling of average surface roughness (Ra) in hard turning of AISI L2 grade (DIN 1.2210) cold work tool steel with ceramic tools. The steel was hardened to 60±1 HRC after the heat treatment process. Cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut and tool nose radius was chosen as the cutting conditions. The uncoated ceramic cutting tools were used in the machining experiments. The machining experiments were performed according to Taguchi L27 orthogonal array on CNC lathe. Ra values were calculated by averaging three roughness values obtained from three different points of machined surface. The influences of cutting conditions on surface roughness were evaluated as statistical and experimental. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 95% confidence level was applied for statistical analysis of experimental results. Finally, mathematical models were developed using the artificial neural networks (ANN). ANOVA results show that feed rate is the dominant factor affecting surface roughness, followed by tool nose radius and cutting speed.

Keywords: ANN, hard turning, DIN 1.2210, surface roughness, Taguchi method

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Authors: Ho-Won Jung, Donghun Lee, Hyung-Jin Kim

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Predictive analytics (data analysis) uses a subset of measurements (the features, predictor, or independent variable) to predict another measurement (the outcome, target, or dependent variable) on a single person or unit. It applies empirical methods in statistics, operations research, and machine learning to predict the future, or otherwise unknown events or outcome on a single or person or unit, based on patterns in data. Most analyses of metabolic syndrome are not predictive analytics but statistical explanatory studies that build a proposed model (theory building) and then validate metabolic syndrome predictors hypothesized (theory testing). A proposed theoretical model forms with causal hypotheses that specify how and why certain empirical phenomena occur. Predictive analytics and explanatory modeling have their own territories in analysis. However, predictive analytics can perform vital roles in explanatory studies, i.e., scientific activities such as theory building, theory testing, and relevance assessment. In the context, this study is to demonstrate how to use our predictive analytics to support theory building (i.e., hypothesis generation). For the purpose, this study utilized a big data predictive analytics platform TM based on a co-occurrence graph. The co-occurrence graph is depicted with nodes (e.g., items in a basket) and arcs (direct connections between two nodes), where items in a basket are fully connected. A cluster is a collection of fully connected items, where the specific group of items has co-occurred in several rows in a data set. Clusters can be ranked using importance metrics, such as node size (number of items), frequency, surprise (observed frequency vs. expected), among others. The size of a graph can be represented by the numbers of nodes and arcs. Since the size of a co-occurrence graph does not depend directly on the number of observations (transactions), huge amounts of transactions can be represented and processed efficiently. For a demonstration, a total of 13,254 metabolic syndrome training data is plugged into the analytics platform to generate rules (potential hypotheses). Each observation includes 31 predictors, for example, associated with sociodemographic, habits, and activities. Some are intentionally included to get predictive analytics insights on variable selection such as cancer examination, house type, and vaccination. The platform automatically generates plausible hypotheses (rules) without statistical modeling. Then the rules are validated with an external testing dataset including 4,090 observations. Results as a kind of inductive reasoning show potential hypotheses extracted as a set of association rules. Most statistical models generate just one estimated equation. On the other hand, a set of rules (many estimated equations from a statistical perspective) in this study may imply heterogeneity in a population (i.e., different subpopulations with unique features are aggregated). Next step of theory development, i.e., theory testing, statistically tests whether a proposed theoretical model is a plausible explanation of a phenomenon interested in. If hypotheses generated are tested statistically with several thousand observations, most of the variables will become significant as the p-values approach zero. Thus, theory validation needs statistical methods utilizing a part of observations such as bootstrap resampling with an appropriate sample size.

Keywords: explanatory modeling, metabolic syndrome, predictive analytics, theory building

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Authors: Fina O. Faithpraise, Effiong O. Obisung, Azele E. Peter, Chris R. Chatwin

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This study investigates and identifies consumer attitude as a major influence that results in non-technical losses in the Nigerian electricity supply sector. This discovery is revealed by the combination of quantitative and qualitative research to complete a survey. The dataset employed is a simple random sampling of households using electricity (public power supply), and the number of units chosen is based on statistical power analysis. The units were subdivided into two categories (household with and without electrical meters). The hypothesis formulated was tested and analyzed using a chi-square statistical method. The results obtained shows that the critical value for the household with electrical prepared meter (EPM) was (9.488 < 427.4) and those without electrical prepared meter (EPMn) was (9.488 < 436.1) with a p-value of 0.01%. The analysis demonstrated so far established the real-time position, which shows that the wrong attitude towards handling the electricity supplied (not turning off light bulbs and electrical appliances when not in use within the rooms and outdoors within 12 hours of the day) characterized the non-technical losses in the power sector. Therefore the adoption of efficient lighting attitudes in individual households as recommended by the researcher is greatly encouraged. The results from this study should serve as a model for energy efficiency and use for the improvement of electricity consumption as well as a stable economy.

Keywords: attitudinal change, household, non-technical losses, prepared meter

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Authors: Mehdi Modabberifar, Milad Roodi, Ehsan Souri

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In recent years, honeycomb fiber reinforced plastic (FRP) sandwich panels have been increasingly used in various industries. Low weight, low price, and high mechanical strength are the benefits of these structures. However, their mechanical properties and behavior have not been fully explored. The objective of this study is to conduct a combined numerical-statistical investigation of honeycomb FRP sandwich beams subject to torsion load. In this paper, the effect of geometric parameters of the sandwich panel on the maximum shear strain in both face and core and angle of torsion in a honeycomb FRP sandwich structures in torsion is investigated. The effect of Parameters including core thickness, face skin thickness, cell shape, cell size, and cell thickness on mechanical behavior of the structure were numerically investigated. Main effects of factors were considered in this paper and regression equations were derived. Taguchi method was employed as experimental design and an optimum parameter combination for the maximum structure stiffness has been obtained. The results showed that cell size and face skin thickness have the most significant impacts on torsion angle, maximum shear strain in face and core.

Keywords: finite element, honeycomb FRP sandwich panel, torsion, civil engineering

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Authors: Sara T. K. Li, Belinda H. J. Chung, Jeffery C. N. Yip, Janet H. Hsiao

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Music notation and text reading both involve statistical learning of music or linguistic structures. However, it remains unclear how music reading expertise influences text reading behavior. The present study examined this issue through an eye-tracking study. Chinese-English bilingual musicians and non-musicians read English sentences, Chinese sentences, musical phrases, and sentences in Tibetan, a language novel to the participants, with their eye movement recorded. Each set of stimuli consisted of two conditions in terms of structural regularity: syntactically correct and syntactically incorrect musical phrases/sentences. They then completed a sentence comprehension (for syntactically correct sentences) or a musical segment/word recognition task afterwards to test their comprehension/recognition abilities. The results showed that in reading musical phrases, as compared with non-musicians, musicians had a higher accuracy in the recognition task, and had shorter reading time, fewer fixations, and shorter fixation duration when reading syntactically correct (i.e., in diatonic key) than incorrect (i.e., in non-diatonic key/atonal) musical phrases. This result reflects their expertise in music reading. Interestingly, in reading Tibetan sentences, which was novel to both participant groups, while non-musicians did not show any behavior differences between reading syntactically correct or incorrect Tibetan sentences, musicians showed a shorter reading time and had marginally fewer fixations when reading syntactically correct sentences than syntactically incorrect ones. However, none of the musicians reported discovering any structural regularities in the Tibetan stimuli after the experiment when being asked explicitly, suggesting that they may have implicitly acquired the structural regularities in Tibetan sentences. This group difference was not observed when they read English or Chinese sentences. This result suggests that music reading expertise facilities reading texts in a novel language (i.e., Tibetan), but not in languages that the readers are already familiar with (i.e., English and Chinese). This phenomenon may be due to the similarities between reading music notations and reading texts in a novel language, as in both cases the stimuli follow particular statistical structures but do not involve semantic or lexical processing. Thus, musicians may transfer their statistical learning skills stemmed from music notation reading experience to implicitly discover structures of sentences in a novel language. This speculation is consistent with a recent finding showing that music reading expertise modulates the processing of English nonwords (i.e., words that do not follow morphological or orthographic rules) but not pseudo- or real words. These results suggest that the modulation of music reading expertise on language processing depends on the similarities in the cognitive processes involved. It also has important implications for the benefits of music education on language and cognitive development.

Keywords: eye movement behavior, eye-tracking, music reading expertise, sentence reading, structural regularity, visual processing

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