Search results for: peak demand scheduling

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Maisa Sales Gama Tobias, Humberto de Paiva Junior, Luciano Silva Brito, Rui António Rodrigues Ramos

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Waterway transport in the Amazon was the first means of access and occupation in the region. For the economic and social matter of high importance, still nowadays one of the main transport modes to several places in the region. To some places, still the only transport mode. With the advent of the pandemic, transport companies that already faced management challenges began to experience unprecedented structural changes and trends in trade and global supply chains. Thus, companies need operational reorganization to maintain the sustainability of the service under the penalty of loss of demand. Allied to this fact, it was observed that the demand presented behavior changes to adapt to this new moment. However, the lack of information about these changes makes it difficult to find solutions to maintain the quality of service. This work aimed to characterize the changes in the demand of waterway passengers through an empirical study with field research involving interviews with users and crew, on-board journeys, and visits to the waterway service company. The case study is the route Belém-Camara, on Marajó Island, in the state of Pará. This line is traditionally the only means of transport for this route, besides air transport on a much smaller scale. The collected data had a descriptive and analytical statistical treatment presented in this work. As the main result, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes, mainly in trip time and motives and, in the perception itself on service quality by part of the demand, with the increase of trip time and the feeling of insecurity. In conclusion, the service operator must review cost management and business survival strategies and tactics. The viability of the service and the social guarantee of transport proved to be threatened, putting at risk the service to the riverside populations.

Keywords: demand of waterway transport passengers, data analysis, COVID-19, amazonia

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Authors: Angelo Gabriel Buenaventura, Allan Christopher Yago

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A carbon paste electrode (CPE) composed of Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube (MWCNT) conducting particle and Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) binder was used for simultaneous detection of Dopamine (DA) and Uric Acid (UA) in the presence of Ascorbic Acid (AA) at physiological level. The MWCNT-PDMS CPE was initially activated via potentiodynamic cycling in a basic (NaOH) solution, which resulted in enhanced electrochemical properties. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy measurements revealed a significantly lower charge transfer resistance (Rct) for the OH--activated MWCNT-PDMS CPE (Rct = 5.08kΩ) as compared to buffer (pH 7)-activated MWCNT-PDMS CPE (Rct = 25.9kΩ). Reversibility analysis of Fe(CN)63-/4- redox couple of both Buffer-Activated CPE and OH--Activated CPE showed that the OH—Activated CPE have peak current ratio (Ia/Ic) of 1.11 at 100mV/s while 2.12 for the Buffer-Activated CPE; this showed an electrochemically reversible behavior for Fe(CN)63-/4- redox couple even at relatively fast scan rate using the OH--activated CPE. Enhanced voltammetric signal for DA and significant peak separation between DA and UA was obtained using the OH--activated MWCNT-PDMS CPE in the presence of 50 μM AA via Differential Pulse Voltammetry technique. The anodic peak currents which appeared at 0.263V and 0.414 V were linearly increasing with increasing concentrations of DA and UA, respectively. The linear ranges were obtained at 25 μM – 100 μM for both DA and UA. The detection limit was determined to be 3.86 μM for DA and 5.61 μM for UA. These results indicate a practical approach in the simultaneous detection of important bio-organic molecules using a simple CPE composed of MWCNT and PDMS with base anodization as activation technique.

Keywords: anodization, ascorbic acid, carbon paste electrodes, dopamine, uric acid

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Authors: Yajun Qiao, Yaner Yan, Ning Li, Shuqing An

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In order to relieve the pressure on a land resource from a huge population, reclamation has occurred in many coastal wetlands. Plants can maintain their elemental composition within normal limits despite the variations of external conditions. Reclamation may affect carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry in the plant to some extent by altering physical and chemical properties of soil in a coastal wetland. We reported the seasonal dynamic of C, N and P stoichiometry in root, stem and leaf of Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall. and in soil between reclamation plots and natural plots. Our results of three-way ANOVA indicated that sampling season always had significant effect on C, N, P concentrations and their ratios; organ had no significant effect on N, P concentration and N:P; plot type had no significant effect on N concentration and C:N. Sampling season explained the most variability of tissue N and P contents, C:N, C:P and N:P, while it’s organ for C using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method. By independent sample T-test, we found that reclamation affect more on C, N and P stoichiometry of stem than that of root or leaf on the whole. While there was no difference between reclamation plots and natural plots for soil in four seasons. For three organs, C concentration had peak values in autumn and minimum values in spring while N concentration had peak values in spring and minimum values in autumn. For P concentration, three organs all had peak values in spring; however, the root had minimum value in winter, the stem had that in autumn, and leaf had that in summer. The seasonal dynamic of C, N and P stoichiometry in a leaf of Suaeda salsa were much steadier than that in root or stem under the drive of reclamation.

Keywords: nitrogen, phosphorus, reclamation, seasonal dynamic, Suaeda salsa

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Authors: Amira M. Attia, Karim H. Youssef, Nabil H. Abbasy

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Energy consumption schedule (ECS) technique shifts usage of loads from on peak hours and redistributes them throughout the day according to residents’ operating time preferences. This technique is used as form of indirect control from utility to improve the load curve and hence its load factor and reduce customer’s total electric bill as well. Similarly, load shifting technique achieves ECS purposes but as direct control form applied from utility. In this paper, ECS is simulated twice as optimal constrained mathematical formula, solved by using CVX program in MATLAB^® R2013b. First, it is utilized for single residential building with ten apartments to determine max allowable energy consumption per hour for each residential apartment. Then, it is used for single apartment with number of shiftable domestic devices, where operating schedule is deduced using previous simulation output results as constraints. The paper ends by giving differences between ECS technique and load shifting technique via literature and simulation. Based on results assessment, it will be shown whether using ECS or load shifting is more beneficial to both customer and utility.

Keywords: energy consumption schedule, load shifting, comparison, demand side mangement

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Authors: Ravinesh C. Deo

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This article reviews the role of nozzle-exit conditions on the flow field of a plane jet. The jet issuing from a sharp-edged orifice plate at a Reynolds number (Re=18000) with nozzle aspect ratio (AR=72) exhibits the greatest shear-layer instabilities, highest entrainment and jet-spreading rates compared to the radially contoured nozzle. The growth rate of the shear-layer is the highest for the orifice-jet although this property could be amplified for larger Re or AR. A local peak in turbulent energy is found at x=10h. The peak appears to be elevated for an orifice-jet with lower Re or AR. The far-field energy sustained by the orifice-jet exceeds the contoured case although a higher Re and AR may enhance this value. The spectra displays the largest eddies generated by the contoured nozzle. However, the frequency of coherent eddies is higher for the orifice-jet, with a larger magnitude achievable for lower Re and AR.

Keywords: plane jet, Reynolds number, nozzle-exit conditions, nozzle geometry, aspect ratio

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Authors: Geetanjali Sharma

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Guillain Barre’ syndrome (GBS) is an auto-immune mediated demyelination poly-radiculo-neuropathy. Clinical features include progressive symmetrical ascending muscle weakness of more than two limbs, areflexia with or without sensory, autonomic and brainstem abnormalities, the purpose of this study was to determine subclinical neurological changes of CNS with GBS and to establish the presence of central demyelination in GBS. The study was prospective and conducted in the Department of Physiology, Pt. B. D. Sharma Post-graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Rohtak, Haryana, India to find out early central demyelination in clinically diagnosed patients of GBS. These patients were referred from the department of Medicine of our Institute to our department for electro-diagnostic evaluation. The study group comprised of 40 subjects (20 clinically diagnosed GBS patients and 20 healthy individuals as controls) aged between 6-65 years. Brain Stem evoked Potential (BAEP) were done in both groups using RMS EMG EP mark II machine. BAEP parameters included the latencies of waves I to IV, inter peak latencies I-III, III-IV & I-V. Statistically significant increase in absolute peak and inter peak latencies in the GBS group as compared with control group was noted. Results of evoked potential reflect impairment of auditory pathways probably due to focal demyelination in Schwann cell derived myelin sheaths that cover the extramedullary portion of auditory nerves. Early detection of the sub-clinical abnormalities is important as timely intervention reduces morbidity.

Keywords: brainstem, demyelination, evoked potential, Guillain Barre’

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Authors: T. A. Faria, C. C. Toniolo, L. F. Ribeiro

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In order to satisfy the costumer’s needs, many sectors of industry and services has been spending major effort to make its processes more efficient. Facing a situation, when its production cannot cover the demand, the traditional way to achieve the production required involves, mostly, adding shifts, workforce, or even more machines. This paper narrates how lean manufacturing supported a dramatic increase of productivity at a rail welding plant in Brazil in order to meet the demand for the next years.

Keywords: productivity, lean manufacturing, rail welding, value stream mapping

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Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

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Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: technical analysis, expert system, law of demand, stocks, portfolio analysis, Indian automotive sector

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Authors: Md Ruhul Amin

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This study was conducted in the experimental field of the Department of Entomology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh during November 2017 to May 2018 with a view to understanding the seasonal abundance of the major sucking pests namely thrips, aphid and red spider mite on rose. The findings showed that the thrips started to build up their population from the middle of January with abundance 1.0 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (2.6 leaf⁻¹) in the middle of February and then declined. Aphid started to build up their population from the second week of November with abundance 6.0 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (8.4 leaf⁻¹) in the last week of December and then declined. Mite started to build up their population from the first week of December with abundance 0.8 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (8.2 leaf⁻¹) in the second week of March and then declined. Thrips and mite prevailed until the last week of April, and aphid showed their abundance till last week of May. The daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall had an insignificant negative correlation with thrips and significant negative correlation with aphid abundance. The daily mean temperature had significant positive, relative humidity had an insignificant positive, and rainfall had an insignificant negative correlation with mite abundance. The multiple linear regression analysis showed that the weather parameters together contributed 38.1, 41.0 and 8.9% abundance on thrips, aphid and mite on rose, respectively and the equations were insignificant.

Keywords: aphid, mite, thrips, weather factors

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Authors: Zeliha Sayar

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Central banks all over the world appear to be focusing first and foremost on retail central bank digital currency CBDC), i.e., digital cash/money. This approach is predicated on the belief that the use of cash has decreased, owing primarily to technological advancements and pandemic restrictions, and that a suitable foundation for the transition to a cashless society has been revealed. This study aims to contribute to the debate over whether digital money/CBDC can be a substitute or supplement to physical cash by examining the potential effects on cash demand. For this reason, this paper compares two emerging countries, Turkey, and Thailand, to demystify the impact of e-payment and COVID-19 restrictions on cash demand by employing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The currency in circulation in two emerging countries, Turkey and Thailand, was examined in order to estimate the elasticity of different types of retail payments. The results demonstrate that real internet and mobile, cart, contactless payment, and e-money are long-term determinants of real cash demand in these two developing countries. Furthermore, with the exception of contactless payments in Turkey, there is a positive relationship between the currency in circulation and the various types of retail payments. According to findings, COVID-19 restrictions encourage the demand for cash, resulting in cash hoarding.

Keywords: CCR, DOLS, e-money, FMOLS, real cash

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Authors: L. Hamra, J. F. Demonceau, V. Denoël

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The aim of this paper is to study a beam extracted from a frame and subjected to blast loading. The demand of ductility depends on six dimensionless parameters: two related to the blast loading, two referring to the bending behavior of the beam and two corresponding to the dynamic behavior of the rest of the structure. We develop a full analytical procedure that provides the ductility demand as a function of these six dimensionless parameters.

Keywords: analytical procedure, blast loading, membrane force, P-I diagram

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Authors: Kamel Agroui, George Collins, Rydha Yaiche

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The objective of this study is to better understand the thermal characteristics and molecular behaviour of cured EVA before and after outdoor exposure. Thermal analysis methods as DSC, TSC and DMTA studies were conducted on EVA material. DSC experiments on EVA show a glass transition at about -33.1° C which is characteristic of crystalline phase and an endothermic peak at temperature of 55 °C characteristic of amorphous phase. The magnitude of the integrated temperature DSC peak for EVA is 14.4 J/g. The basic results by TSC technique is that there are two relaxations that are reproducibly observed in cured EVA encapsulant material. At temperature polarization 85°C, a low temperature relaxation occurs at –24.4°C and a high temperature relaxation occurs at +30.4ºC. DMTA results exhibit two tan peaks located at -14.9°C and +66.6°C. After outdoor exposure cured EVA by DSC analysis revealed two endothermic peaks due to post crystallization phenomenon and TSC suggests that prolonged exposure selectively effects the poly(vinyl acetate)-rich phase, with much less impact on the polyethylene-rich phase.

Keywords: EVA, encapsulation process, PV module, thermal analysis, quality control

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Authors: Ramin Mirzada, Takuya Maruyama

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large buses, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Jacky Hau

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The prevalence of emerging technologies disrupts various industries as well as consumer behavior. Data collection has been in the fingertip and inherited through enabled Internet-of-things (IOT) devices. Big data analytics (BDA) becomes possible and allows real-time demand network management (DNM) through leagile supply chain. To enhance further on its resilience and predictability, governance is going to be examined to promote supply chain transparency and trust in an efficient manner. Leagility combines lean thinking and agile techniques in supply chain management. It aims at reducing costs and waste, as well as maintaining responsiveness to any volatile consumer demand by means of adjusting the decoupling point where the product flow changes from push to pull. Leagility would only be successful when collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) process or alike is in place throughout the supply chain business entities. Governance and procurement of the supply chain, however, is crucial and challenging for the execution of CPFR as every entity has to walk-the-talk generously for the sake of overall benefits of supply chain performance, not to mention the complexity of exercising the polices at both of within across various supply chain business entities on account of organizational behavior and mutual trust. Empirical survey results showed that the effective timespan on demand forecasting had been drastically shortening in the magnitude of months to weeks planning horizon, thus agility shall come first and preferably following by lean approach in a timely manner.

Keywords: governance, leagility, procure-to-pay, source-to-contract

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: Anatoliy Kharkhurin

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Modifications that the prefix ‘trans-‘ refers to start within a person. This presentation focuses on the transpersonal that goes beyond the individual (trans-personal) to encompass wider aspects of humanities, specifically peak experience as a culminating stage of the creative act. It proposes a model according to which the peak experience results from a harmonious vibration of four spheres, which transcend an individual’s capacities and bring one to a qualitatively different level of experience. Each sphere represents an aspect of creative activity: superconscious, intellectual, emotive and active. Each sphere corresponds to one of four creative functions: authenticity, novelty, aesthetics, and utility, respectively. The creative act starts in the superconscious sphere: the supreme pleasure of Creation is reflected in creative pleasure, which is realized in creative will. These three instances serve as a source of force axes, which penetrate other spheres, and in place of infiltration establish restrictive, expansive, and integrative principles, respectively; the latter balances the other two and ensures a harmonious vibration within a sphere. This Hegelian-like triad is realized within each sphere in the form of creative capacities. The intellectual sphere nurtures capacities to invent and to elaborate, which are integrated by capacity to conceptualize. The emotive sphere nurtures satiation and restrictive capacities integrated by capacity to balance. The active sphere nurtures goal orientation and stabilization capacities integrated by capacity for self-expression. All four spheres vibrate within each other – the superconscious sphere being in the core of the structure followed by intellectual, emotive, and active spheres, respectively – thereby reflecting the path of creative production. If the spheres vibrate in-phase, their amplitudes amplify the creative energy; if in antiphase – the amplitudes reduce the creative energy. Thus, creative act is perceived as continuum with perfectly harmonious vibration within and between the spheres on one side and perfectly disharmonious vibration on the other.

Keywords: creativity, model, transpersonal, peak experience

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Authors: Danjuma Moudu Momoh

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Participation in sports is of immense benefit to the soundness of individual mental and social wellness, particularly among youngsters. The 1980’s and 1990’s compared to 2000’s witnessed great involvement of youngsters in school games arising from the high administrative supports attached to sports. Previous studies in an attempt to increase youngster’s participation in sports had focused more on other factors rather than on administrative factors. This study, therefore, investigated the importance of administrative factors (availability of facilities, availability of equipment, funding, scheduling of sports programme and administrative style of school principals) on students’ sports participation in private and public secondary schools in Kwara State, Nigeria. Descriptive survey research design using validated and structured questionnaire, was adopted. Stratified random sampling technique was used to pick the students both male and female. A total of two thousand five hundred and sixty participants were involved in the study. A reliable coefficient of r=0.82 was obtained for the instruments using Cronbach Alpha. Data were analyzed using multiple regressions to test the hypotheses at 00.5 significant levels. At the end of the study, it was discovered that the relative contributions of administrative factors among the students were: availability of facilities (β=0.314), availability of equipment (β=0.444), funding (β=0.301), scheduling of sports programme (β=0.447), made relative contributions to the dependent variable, administrative style of school principal (β=0.077) did not make significant but minimal contribution to the student’s sports participation.

Keywords: administrative determinants, secondary school students, physical activity, sports participation

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Authors: Thawtar Htun, Kim N. Irvine, Ranjna Jindal

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This study aimed at modelling the wastewater collection system in Cha-Am Municipality using PCSWMM to investigate the quantity of combined sewage delivered to the aeration lagoon treatment system (ALTS). Cha-Am is a small sea resort town in Petchaburi Province located about 175 km southwest of Bangkok and is facing increasing development so it is important to understand current system performance and plan for future build out. PCSWMM was calibrated using observed ALTS inflow data for the period 15 June to 20 July 2015. The model was validated using observed ALTS inflow data for the periods 19 July to 20 October 2015 and 1 October to 31 December 2015, respectively. The 1:1 lines between modeled and observed peak flow and event volume for the calibration events qualitatively showed good correspondence. The r2 values between modeled and observed peak flow (99%) and event volume (89%) also were strong.

Keywords: combined sewer system, mathematical modelling, PCSWMM, wastewater collection system

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Andrey A. Chernousov, Ben Y. B. Chan

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The use of the low-cost paraffinic phase change material can be rather effective in smart building envelopes in the South China region. Particular attention has to be paid to the PCM optimization as an exploitation conditions and the envelope insulation changes its thermal characteristics. The studied smart building envelope consists of a reinforced aluminum exterior, polymeric insulation foam, phase change material and reinforced interior gypsum board. A prototype sample was tested to validate the numerical scheme using EnergryPlus software. Three scenarios of insulation thermal resistance loss (ΔR/R = 0%, 25%, 50%) were compared with the different PCM thicknesses (tP=0, 1, 2.5, 5 mm). The comparisons were carried out for a west facing enveloped office building (50 storey). PCM optimization was applied to find the maximum efficiency for the different ΔR/R cases. It was found, during the optimization, that the PCM is an important smart component, lowering the peak energy demand up to 2.7 times. The results are not influenced by the insulation aging in terms of ΔR/R during long-term exploitation. In hot and humid climates like Hong Kong, the insulation core of the smart systems is recommended to be laminated completely. This can be very helpful in achieving an acceptable payback period.

Keywords: smart building envelope, thermal performance, phase change material, energy efficiency, large-scale sandwich panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 703

Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: David W. Hill, Linda W. Glass, Jakob L. Vingren

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Maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD), the gold standard measure of anaerobic capacity, is the difference between the oxygen cost of exhaustive severe intensity exercise and the accumulated oxygen consumption (O2; mL·kg–1). In theory, MAOD can be estimated as the sum of independent estimates of the phosphocreatine and glycolysis contributions, which we refer to as PCr+glycolysis. Purpose: The purpose was to test the hypothesis that PCr+glycolysis provides a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running. Methods: The participants were 27 women (mean ± SD, age 22 ±1 y, height 165 ± 7 cm, weight 63.4 ± 9.7 kg) and 25 men (age 22 ± 1 y, height 179 ± 6 cm, weight 80.8 ± 14.8 kg). They performed two exhaustive cycling and running tests, at speeds and work rates that were tolerable for ~5 min. The rate of oxygen consumption (VO2; mL·kg–1·min–1) was measured in warmups, in the tests, and during 7 min of recovery. Fingerprick blood samples obtained after exercise were analysed to determine peak blood lactate concentration (PeakLac). The VO2 response in exercise was fitted to a model, with a fast ‘primary’ phase followed by a delayed ‘slow’ component, from which was calculated the accumulated O2 and the excess O2 attributable to the slow component. The VO2 response in recovery was fitted to a model with a fast phase and slow component, sharing a common time delay. Oxygen demand (in mL·kg–1·min–1) was determined by extrapolation from steady-state VO2 in warmups; the total oxygen cost (in mL·kg–1) was determined by multiplying this demand by time to exhaustion and adding the excess O2; then, MAOD was calculated as total oxygen cost minus accumulated O2. The phosphocreatine contribution (area under the fast phase of the post-exercise VO2) and the glycolytic contribution (converted from PeakLac) were summed to give PCr+glycolysis. There was not an interaction effect involving sex, so values for anaerobic capacity were examined using a two-way ANOVA, with repeated measures across method (PCr+glycolysis vs MAOD) and mode (cycling vs running). Results: There was a significant effect only for exercise mode. There was no difference between MAOD and PCr+glycolysis: values were 59 ± 6 mL·kg–1 and 61 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in cycling and 78 ± 7 mL·kg–1 and 75 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in running. Discussion: PCr+glycolysis is a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running, and it is as valid for women as for men.

Keywords: alactic, anaerobic, cycling, ergometer, glycolysis, lactic, lactate, oxygen deficit, phosphocreatine, running, treadmill

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Avinash Kharel

Abstract:

Background: - Linear sprint training is one possible approach to developing sprint performance, a crucial skill to focus on in soccer. Numerous methods, including various on-field training options, can be employed to attain this goal. However, the effect of In-season linear sprint training on sprint performance and related kinetics changes are unknown in a professional setting. The study aimed to investigate the effect of in-season linear sprint training on the sprint kinematics of amateur soccer players. Methods: - After familiarization, a 4-week training protocol was completed with sprint performance and Force Velocity (FV) profiles was compared before and after the training. Eighteen amateur soccer male players (Age 22 ± 2 years: Height: 178 ± 7cm; body-mass: 74 ± 8 Kg, 30-m split-time: 4.398 ± s) participated in the study. Sprint kinematics variables, including maximum Sprint Velocity (V0), Theoretical Maximum Force (F0), Maximum Force Output per kilogram of body weight (N/KG), Maximum Velocity (V(0)), Maximum Power Output (P MAX (W)), Ratio of Force to Velocity (FV), and Ratio of Force to Velocity at Peak power were measured. Results: - Results showed significant improvements in Maximum Sprint Velocity (p<0.01, ES=0.89), Theoretical Maximum Force (p<0.05, ES=0.50), Maximum Force Output per kilogram of body weight (p<0.05, ES=0.42), Maximum Power Output (p<0.05, ES=0.52), and Ratio of Force to Velocity at Peak Power (RF PEAK) (p<0.05, ES=0.44) post-training. There were no significant changes in the ratio of Force to Velocity (FV) and Maximum Velocity V (0) post-training (p>0.05). Conclusion: - These findings suggest that In-season linear sprint training can effectively improve certain sprint kinematics variables in amateur soccer players. Coaches and players should consider incorporating linear sprint training into their in-season training programs to improve sprint performance.

Keywords: sprint performance, training intervention, soccer, kinematics

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: David C. Ni

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Contemporary models for N-body systems are based on temporal, two-body, and mass point representation of Newtonian mechanics. Other mainstream models include 2D and 3D Ising models based on local neighborhood the lattice structures. In Quantum mechanics, the theories of collective modes are for superconductivity and for the long-range quantum entanglement. However, these models are still mainly for the specific phenomena with a set of designated parameters. We are therefore motivated to develop a new construction directly from the complex-variable N-body systems based on the extended Blaschke functions (EBF), which represent a non-temporal and nonlinear extension of Lorentz transformation on the complex plane – the normalized momentum spaces. A point on the complex plane represents a normalized state of particle momentums observed from a reference frame in the theory of special relativity. There are only two key parameters, normalized momentum and nonlinearity for modelling. An algorithm similar to Jenkins-Traub method is adopted for solving EBF iteratively. Through iteration, the solution sets show a form of σ + i [-t, t], where σ and t are the real numbers, and the [-t, t] shows various distributions, such as 1-peak, 2-peak, and 3-peak etc. distributions and some of them are analog to the canonical distributions. The results of the numerical analysis demonstrate continuum-to-discreteness transitions, evolutional invariance of distributions, phase transitions with conjugate symmetry, etc., which manifest the construction as a potential candidate for the unification of statistics. We hereby classify the observed distributions on the finite convergent domains. Continuous and discrete distributions both exist and are predictable for given partitions in different regions of parameter-pair. We further compare these distributions with canonical distributions and address the impacts on the existing applications.

Keywords: blaschke, lorentz transformation, complex variables, continuous, discrete, canonical, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Aaron Huber, Manoj Karwa

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Floods, heat waves, drought, wildfires, tornadoes and other environmental disasters are a snapshot of looming national problems that can create increasing demands on the national grid. With nearly 500,000 school buses on the road and the environmental protection agency (EPA) providing nearly $1B for electric school buses, there is a solution for this national issue. Bidirectional batteries in electric school buses enable a future proof solution to sustain the power grid during adverse environmental conditions and other periods of high demand. School buses have larger batteries than standard electric vehicles. When they are not transporting students, these buses can spend peak solar hours parked and plugged into bi-directional direct current fast chargers (DCFC). A partnership with Highland Electric, Proterra and Rhombus enabled over 7 MWh of energy servicing Massachusetts and Vermont grids. The buses were part of a vehicle to grid (V2G) program with National Grid and Green Mountain Power that can charge an average American home for one month with a single bus. V2G infrastructure enables school systems to future proof their charging strategies, strengthen their local grids and can create additional revenue streams with their EV fleets. A bidirectional ecosystem with Highland, Proterra and Rhombus can enable grid resiliency or the ability to withstand power outages caused by excessive demands, natural disasters or rogue nation's attacks with no loss of service. A fleet of school buses is a standalone resilient asset that can be accessed across a city to keep its citizens safe without having any toxic fumes. Nearly 95% of all school buses across USA are powered by diesel internal combustion engines. Diesel exhaust has been classified as a human carcinogen, and it can lead to and exacerbate respiratory conditions. Bidirectional school buses and chargers enable energy justice by providing backup power in case of emergencies or high demand for marginalized communities and aim to make energy more accessible, affordable, clean, and democratically managed.

Keywords: V2G, vehicle to grid, electric buses, eBuses, DC fast chargers, DCFC

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Carlos Gonzalez

Abstract:

This paper describes a system to optimize the use of the internet by clients requiring downloading of videos at peak hours. The system consists of a web server belonging to a provider of video contents, a provider of internet communications and a software application running on a client’s computer. The client using the application software will communicate to the video provider a list of the client’s future video demands. The video provider calculates which videos are going to be more in demand for download in the immediate future, and proceeds to request the internet provider the most optimal hours to do the downloading. The times of the downloading will be sent to the application software, which will use the information of pre-established hours negotiated between the video provider and the internet provider to download those videos. The videos will be saved in a special protected section of the user’s hard disk, which will only be accessed by the application software in the client’s computer. When the client is ready to see a video, the application will search the list of current existent videos in the area of the hard disk; if it does exist, it will use this video directly without the need for internet access. We found that the best way to optimize the download traffic of videos is by negotiation between the internet communication provider and the video content provider.

Keywords: internet optimization, video download, future demands, secure storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 121