Search results for: cost and time

Authors: Rashmi Shahu

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Flexibility is becoming a more widely accepted aspect of project management. Although contingency theory in project management states that the unknowns are controllable, complexity theory believes that the best way to handle the unknowns would be to have a flexible approach rather than rigidity. Designing a flexible system is a method of managing uncertainty. The present research work aims to evaluate flexibility in the initial design phase of projects taking examples of construction projects. Flexibility in the initial design phase is modeled in order to know the advantage in future. The comparison between the extra cost of flexibility in the initial design phase and the discount that can be achieved in future due to this premium will help the developers in making strategic decisions. This research uses a methodology for valuing flexibility by developing a mathematical formula for predicting future saving of cost. Two case studies were considered in this research to validate the mathematical formula. This research explains three case studies of an educational institution 28 years old for explaining the concept and giving benefits of flexible design for modification/renovation work of building.

Keywords: flexibility, future saving, flexibility cost, construction projects

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Authors: Tomoko Usui

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In the field of linguistics, it has been said that concepts associated with space and motion systematically contribute structure to the temporal concept. This is the conceptual metaphor theory. conceptual metaphors typically employ a more abstract concept (time) as their target and a more concrete or physical concept as their source (space). This paper will examine two major temporal conceptual metaphors: Ego-centered Moving Time Metaphor and Time-RP Metaphor. Moving time generally receives a front-back orientation, however, Japanese shows a different orientation given to time. By means of Ego perspective, this paper will illustrate the paradox of a metaphorical orientation in time.

Keywords: Ego-centered Moving Time Metaphor, Japanese saki, temporal metaphors, Time RP Metaphor

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Authors: Gerald Gwamba, Bo Zhou, Yajun Song, Dong Changyin

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The challenges that sand production presents to the oil and gas industry, particularly while working in poorly consolidated reservoirs, cannot be overstated. From restricting production to blocking production tubing, sand production increases the costs associated with production as it elevates the cost of servicing production equipment over time. Production in reservoirs that present with high viscosities, flow rate, cementation, clay content as well as fine sand contents is even more complex and challenging. As opposed to the one-factor at a-time testing, investigating the interactive effects arising from a combination of several factors offers increased reliability of results as well as representation of actual field conditions. It is thus paramount to investigate the conditions leading to the onset of sanding during production to ensure the future sustainability of hydrocarbon production operations under viscous conditions. We adopt the Design of Experiments (DOE) to analyse, using Taguchi factorial designs, the most significant interactive effects of sanding. We propose an optimized regression model to predict the drawdown time at sand production. The results obtained underscore that reservoirs characterized by varying (high and low) levels of viscosity, flow rate, cementation, clay, and fine sand content have a resulting impact on sand production. The only significant interactive effect recorded arises from the interaction between BD (fine sand content and flow rate), while the main effects included fluid viscosity and cementation, with percentage significances recorded as 31.3%, 37.76%, and 30.94%, respectively. The drawdown time model presented could be useful for predicting the time to reach the maximum drawdown pressure under viscous conditions during the onset of sand production.

Keywords: factorial designs, DOE optimization, sand production prediction, drawdown time, regression model

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Authors: S. M. Arciniegas, D. Vargas, L. Gutierrez

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The aim of this study was to develop oral drug presentation of doxycycline hyclate that maintains longer therapeutic levels than conventional forms. A polymethacrylate and acrylic acid based matrix were used in different proportions to obtain controlled-release formulations; DOX1 (1:0.25:0.0035), DOX2 (1:2:0.0225) and DOX-C (without excipients). All were tested in vivo in healthy dogs and their serum concentrations vs. time profile was investigated after its oral administration in this species. DOX1 and DOX2 show therapeutic concentrations for 60 hours, while DOX-C only for 24 hours. The pharmacokinetics values tested were K½el, Cmax, Tmax, AUC, AUC∞, AUCt, AUMC, RT, Kel, Vdss, Clb and Frel. DOX1 does not differ significantly from DOX-C, but shows significant differences in all variables with DOX2 (p<0.05). In conclusion, DOX1 presents best pharmacokinetics for time-dependent drug and longer release time of 60 hours, thereby reducing the frequency of administration, the patient's stress, the occurrence of adverse effects and the cost of treatment.

Keywords: tetracyclines, long-acting, sustained-release, carbopol, eudragit, canine

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Authors: Peng Hao Wang, Garam Kim, Ronald Sterkenburg

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In composite manufacturing, the fabrication of tooling and tooling maintenance contributes to a large portion of the total cost. However, as the applications of composite materials continue to increase, there is also a growing demand for more tooling. The demand for more tooling places heavy emphasis on the industry’s ability to fabricate high quality tools while maintaining the tool’s cost effectiveness. One of the popular techniques of tool fabrication currently being developed utilizes additive manufacturing technology known as 3D printing. The popularity of 3D printing is due to 3D printing’s ability to maintain low material waste, low cost, and quick fabrication time. In this study, a team of Purdue University School of Aviation and Transportation Technology (SATT) faculty and students investigated the effectiveness of a 3D printed composite mold. A steel valve cover from an aircraft reciprocating engine was modeled utilizing 3D scanning and computer-aided design (CAD) to create a 3D printed composite mold. The mold was used to fabricate carbon fiber versions of the aircraft reciprocating engine valve cover. The carbon fiber valve covers were evaluated for dimensional accuracy and quality while the 3D printed composite mold was evaluated for durability and dimensional stability. The data collected from this study provided valuable information in the understanding of 3D printed composite molds, potential improvements for the molds, and considerations for future tooling design.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, carbon fiber, composite tooling, molds

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Authors: Jaehyun Choi, Hyunjung Kim, Namho Kim

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Earthwork is one of the critical civil construction operations that require large-quantities of resources due to its intensive dependency upon construction equipment. Therefore, efficient construction equipment management can highly contribute to productivity improvements and cost savings. Earthwork operation utilizes various combinations of construction equipment in order to meet project requirements such as time and cost. Identification of site condition and construction methods should be performed in advance in order to develop a proper execution plan. The factors to be considered include capacity of equipment assigned, the method of construction, the size of the site, and the surrounding condition. In addition, optimal combination of various construction equipment should be selected. However, in real world practice, equipment utilization plan is performed based on experience and intuition of management. The researchers evaluated the efficiency of various alternatives of construction equipment combinations by utilizing the process simulation model, validated the model from a case study project, and presented a methodology to find optimized plan among alternatives.

Keywords: earthwork operation, construction equipment, process simulation, optimization

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Authors: Qian Liu, Steve Furber

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To explore how the brain may recognize objects in its general,accurate and energy-efficient manner, this paper proposes the use of a neuromorphic hardware system formed from a Dynamic Video Sensor~(DVS) silicon retina in concert with the SpiNNaker real-time Spiking Neural Network~(SNN) simulator. As a first step in the exploration on this platform a recognition system for dynamic hand postures is developed, enabling the study of the methods used in the visual pathways of the brain. Inspired by the behaviours of the primary visual cortex, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are modeled using both linear perceptrons and spiking Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neurons. In this study's largest configuration using these approaches, a network of 74,210 neurons and 15,216,512 synapses is created and operated in real-time using 290 SpiNNaker processor cores in parallel and with 93.0% accuracy. A smaller network using only 1/10th of the resources is also created, again operating in real-time, and it is able to recognize the postures with an accuracy of around 86.4% -only 6.6% lower than the much larger system. The recognition rate of the smaller network developed on this neuromorphic system is sufficient for a successful hand posture recognition system, and demonstrates a much-improved cost to performance trade-off in its approach.

Keywords: spiking neural network (SNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), posture recognition, neuromorphic system

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Authors: Manutchanok Jongprasithporn, Rawiphorn Srivilai, Paweena Pongsopha

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Fall is the most serious accident leading to increased unintentional injuries and mortality. Falls are not only the cause of suffering and functional impairments to the individuals, but also the cause of increasing medical cost and days away from work. The early detection of falls could be an advantage to reduce fall-related injuries and consequences of falls. Smartphones, embedded accelerometer, have become a common device in everyday life due to decreasing technology cost. This paper explores a physical activity monitoring and fall detection application in smartphones which is a non-invasive biomedical device to determine physical activities and fall event. The combination of application and sensors could perform as a biomedical sensor to monitor physical activities and recognize a fall. We have chosen Android-based smartphone in this study since android operating system is an open-source and no cost. Moreover, android phone users become a majority of Thai’s smartphone users. We developed Thai 3 Axis (TH3AX) as a physical activities and fall detection application which included command, manual, results in Thai language. The smartphone was attached to right hip of 10 young, healthy adult subjects (5 males, 5 females; aged< 35y) to collect accelerometer and gyroscope data during performing physical activities (e.g., walking, running, sitting, and lying down) and falling to determine threshold for each activity. Dependent variables are including accelerometer data (acceleration, peak acceleration, average resultant acceleration, and time between peak acceleration). A repeated measures ANOVA was performed to test whether there are any differences between DVs’ means. Statistical analyses were considered significant at p<0.05. After finding threshold, the results were used as training data for a predictive model of activity recognition. In the future, accuracies of activity recognition will be performed to assess the overall performance of the classifier. Moreover, to help improve the quality of life, our system will be implemented with patients and elderly people who need intensive care in hospitals and nursing homes in Thailand.

Keywords: activity recognition, accelerometer, fall, gyroscope, smartphone

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Authors: Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Joshua Phelan, Mehdi Shahparvari

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With a large percentage of countries’ total infrastructure expenditure attributed to water network maintenance, it is essential to optimise maintenance strategies to rehabilitate or replace underground pipes before failure occurs. The aim of this paper is to provide water utility managers with a maintenance management approach for underground water pipes, subject to external loading and material corrosion, to give the lowest life cycle cost over a predetermined time period. This reliability-based maintenance management methodology details the optimal years for intervention, the ideal number of maintenance activities to perform before replacement and specifies feasible renewal options and intervention prioritisation to minimise the life cycle cost. The study was then extended to include feasible renewal methods by determining the structural condition index and potential for soil loss, then obtaining the failure impact rating to assist in prioritising pipe replacement. A case study on optimisation of maintenance plans for the Melbourne water pipe network is considered in this paper to evaluate the practicality of the proposed methodology. The results confirm that the suggested methodology can provide water utility managers with a reliable systematic approach to determining optimum maintenance plans for pipe networks.

Keywords: water pipe networks, maintenance management, reliability analysis, optimum maintenance plan

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Authors: Gen Sakoda, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

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Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant  of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual  value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.

Keywords: food waste reduction, particle filter, point-of-sales, sustainable development goals, Taylor's law, time series analysis

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Authors: Farzad Pargar

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We introduce the preventive maintenance and renewal scheduling problem for a multi-unit system over a finite and discretized time horizon. Given the latest possible time for carrying out the next maintenance and renewal projects after the previous ones and considering several common set-up costs, the introduced scheduling model tries to minimize the cost of projects by grouping them and simultaneously finding the optimal balance between doing maintenance and renewal. We present a 0-1 pure integer linear programming that determines which projects should be performed together on which location and in which period (e.g., week or month). We consider railway track as a case for our study and test the performance of the proposed model on a set of test problems. The experimental results show that the proposed approach performs well.

Keywords: maintenance, renewal, scheduling, mathematical programming model

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Authors: Dibakar Chakrabarty, Mebada Suiting

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Rapid urbanization coupled with changes in land use pattern results in increasing peak discharge and shortening of catchment time of concentration. The consequence is floods, which often inundate roads and inhabited areas of cities and towns. Management of storm water resulting from rainfall has, therefore, become an important issue for the municipal bodies. Proper management of storm water obviously includes adequate design of storm water drainage networks. The design of storm water network is a costly exercise. Least cost design of storm water networks assumes significance, particularly when the fund available is limited. Optimal design of a storm water system is a difficult task as it involves the design of various components, like, open or closed conduits, storage units, pumps etc. In this paper, a methodology for least cost design of storm water drainage systems is proposed. The methodology proposed in this study consists of coupling a storm water simulator with an optimization method. The simulator used in this study is EPA’s storm water management model (SWMM), which is linked with Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization method. The model proposed here is a mixed integer nonlinear optimization formulation, which takes care of minimizing the sectional areas of the open conduits of storm water networks, while satisfactorily conveying the runoff resulting from rainfall to the network outlet. Performance evaluations of the developed model show that the proposed method can be used for cost effective design of open conduit based storm water networks.

Keywords: genetic algorithm (GA), optimal design, simulation-optimization, storm water network, SWMM

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Authors: Mubarek Alpkiray, Tan Nguyen, Arild Saasen

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Geothermal drilling operations contain numerous challenges that are encountered to increase the well cost and nonproductive time. Fluid loss is one of the most undesirable troublesome that can cause well abandonment in geothermal drilling. Lost circulation can be seen due to natural fractures, high mud weight, and extremely high formation temperatures. This challenge may cause wellbore stability problems and lead to expensive drilling operations. Wellbore stability is the main domain that should be considered to mitigate or prevent fluid loss into the formation. This paper describes the causes of fluid loss in the Pamukoren geothermal field in Turkey. A geomechanics approach integration and assessment is applied to help the understanding of fluid loss problems. In geothermal drillings, geomechanics is primarily based on rock properties, in-situ stress characterization, the temperature of the rock, determination of stresses around the wellbore, and rock failure criteria. Since a high-temperature difference between the wellbore wall and drilling fluid is presented, temperature distribution through the wellbore is estimated and implemented to the wellbore stability approach. This study reviewed geothermal drilling data to analyze temperature estimation along the wellbore, the cause of fluid loss and stored electric capacity of the reservoir. Our observation demonstrates the geomechanical approach's significant role in understanding safe drilling operations on high-temperature wells. Fluid loss is encountered due to thermal stress effects around the borehole. This paper provides a wellbore stability analysis for a geothermal drilling operation to discuss the causes of lost circulation resulting in nonproductive time and cost.

Keywords: geothermal wells, drilling, wellbore stresses, drilling fluid loss, thermal stress

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Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

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In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection

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Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) deals with both substitution synergies (exchange of waste materials, fatal energy and utilities as resources for production) and infrastructure/service sharing synergies. The latter is based on the intensification of use of an asset and thus requires to balance capital costs increments with snowball effects (network externalities) for its implementation. Initial investors must specify ex-ante arrangements (cost sharing and pricing schedule) to commit toward investments in capacities and transactions. Our model investigate the decision of 2 actors trying to choose cooperatively a level of infrastructure capacity oversizing to set a plug-and-play offer to a potential entrant whose capacity requirement is randomly distributed while satisficing their own requirements. Capacity cost exhibits sub-additive property so that there is room for profitable overcapacity setting in the first period. The entrant’s willingness-to-pay for the access to the infrastructure is dependent upon its standalone cost and the capacity gap that it must complete in case the available capacity is insufficient ex-post (the complement cost). Since initial capacity choices are driven by ex-ante (expected) yield extractible from the entrant we derive the expected complement cost function which helps us defining the investors’ objective function. We first show that this curve is decreasing and convex in the capacity increments and that it is shaped by the distribution function of the potential entrant’s requirements. We then derive the general form of solutions and solve the model for uniform and triangular distributions. Depending on requirements volumes and cost assumptions different equilibria occurs. We finally analyze the effect of a per-unit subsidy a public actor would apply to foster such sharing synergies.

Keywords: capacity, cooperation, industrial symbiosis, pricing

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Authors: Rene Hellmuth

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Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring of the factory building is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A building information model (BIM) is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable data repository to be able to react quickly to changes. Use as a planning basis for restructuring measures in factories only succeeds if the BIM model has adequate data quality. Under this aspect and the industrial requirement, three data quality factors are particularly important for this paper regarding the BIM model: up-to-dateness, completeness, and correctness. The research question is: how can a BIM model be kept up to date with required data quality and which visualization techniques can be applied in a short period of time on the construction site during conversion measures? An as-is analysis is made of how BIM models and digital factory models (including laser scans) are currently being kept up to date. Industrial companies are interviewed, and expert interviews are conducted. Subsequently, the results are evaluated, and a procedure conceived how cost-effective and timesaving updating processes can be carried out. The availability of low-cost hardware and the simplicity of the process are of importance to enable service personnel from facility mnagement to keep digital factory models (BIM models and laser scans) up to date. The approach includes the detection of changes to the building, the recording of the changing area, and the insertion into the overall digital twin. Finally, an overview of the possibilities for visualizations suitable for construction sites is compiled. An augmented reality application is created based on an updated BIM model of a factory and installed on a tablet. Conversion scenarios with costs and time expenditure are displayed. A user interface is designed in such a way that all relevant conversion information is available at a glance for the respective conversion scenario. A total of three essential research results are achieved: As-is analysis of current update processes for BIM models and laser scans, development of a time-saving and cost-effective update process and the conception and implementation of an augmented reality solution for BIM models suitable for construction sites.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

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Authors: Sony Baral, Bijendra Basnyat, Kalyan Gauli

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Forests are depleted throughout the world in the 1990s, and since then, various efforts have been undertaken for the restoration of the forest. A government of Nepal promoted various community based forest management in which leasehold forestry was the one introduce in 1990s, aiming to restore degraded forests land. However, few attempts have been made to systematically evaluate its cost effectiveness. Hence the study assesses the cost effectiveness of leasehold forestry intervention in the mid-hill district of Nepal following the cost and benefit analysis approach. The study followed quasi-experimental design and collected costs and benefits information from 320 leasehold forestry groups (with intervention) and 154 comparison groups (without intervention) through household survey, forest inventory and then validated with the stakeholders’ consultative workshop. The study found that both the benefits and costs from intervention outweighed without situation. The members of leasehold forestry groups were generating multiple benefits from the forests, such as firewood, grasses, fodder, and fruits, whereas those from comparison groups were mostly getting a single benefit. Likewise, extent of soil carbon is high in leasehold forests. Average expense per unit area is high in intervention sites due to high government investment for capacity building. Nevertheless, positive net present value and internal rate of return was observed for both situations. However, net present value from intervention, i.e., leasehold forestry, is almost double compared to comparison sites, revealing that community are getting higher benefits from restoration. The study concludes that leasehold forestry is a highly cost-effective intervention that contributes towards forest restoration that brings multiple benefits to rural poor.

Keywords: cost effectiveness, economic efficiency, intervention, restoration, leasehold forestry, nepal

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Authors: Jie Liu, Jinqu Cheng, Qiyuan Peng, Yong Yin

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Urban rail transit (URT) plays a significant role in dealing with traffic congestion and environmental problems in cities. However, equipment failure and obstruction of links often lead to URT links’ capacities loss in daily operation. It affects the reliability and transport service quality of URT network seriously. In order to measure the influence of links’ capacities loss on reliability and transport service quality of URT network, passengers are divided into three categories in case of links’ capacities loss. Passengers in category 1 are less affected by the loss of links’ capacities. Their travel is reliable since their travel quality is not significantly reduced. Passengers in category 2 are affected by the loss of links’ capacities heavily. Their travel is not reliable since their travel quality is reduced seriously. However, passengers in category 2 still can travel on URT. Passengers in category 3 can not travel on URT because their travel paths’ passenger flow exceeds capacities. Their travel is not reliable. Thus, the proportion of passengers in category 1 whose travel is reliable is defined as reliability indicator of URT network. The transport service quality of URT network is related to passengers’ travel time, passengers’ transfer times and whether seats are available to passengers. The generalized travel cost is a comprehensive reflection of travel time, transfer times and travel comfort. Therefore, passengers’ average generalized travel cost is used as transport service quality indicator of URT network. The impact of links’ capacities loss on transport service quality of URT network is measured with passengers’ relative average generalized travel cost with and without links’ capacities loss. The proportion of the passengers affected by links and betweenness of links are used to determine the important links in URT network. The stochastic user equilibrium distribution model based on the improved logit model is used to determine passengers’ categories and calculate passengers’ generalized travel cost in case of links’ capacities loss, which is solved with method of successive weighted averages algorithm. The reliability and transport service quality indicators of URT network are calculated with the solution result. Taking Wuhan Metro as a case, the reliability and transport service quality of Wuhan metro network is measured with indicators and method proposed in this paper. The result shows that using the proportion of the passengers affected by links can identify important links effectively which have great influence on reliability and transport service quality of URT network; The important links are mostly connected to transfer stations and the passenger flow of important links is high; With the increase of number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss, the reliability of the network keeps decreasing, the proportion of passengers in category 3 keeps increasing and the proportion of passengers in category 2 increases at first and then decreases; When the number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss increased to a certain level, the decline of transport service quality is weakened.

Keywords: urban rail transit network, reliability, transport service quality, links’ capacities loss, important links

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Authors: Panagiotis Gkekas, Christos Sougles, Dionysios Kehagias, Dimitrios Tzovaras

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Cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) can greatly improve safety and efficiency in road transport by enabling communication, not only between vehicles themselves but also between vehicles and infrastructure. For that reason, traffic surveillance systems on the road are of great importance. This paper focuses on the development of an on-road unit comprising several magnetic sensors for real-time vehicle detection, movement direction, and speed measurement calculations. Magnetic sensors can feel and measure changes in the earth’s magnetic field. Vehicles are composed of many parts with ferromagnetic properties. Depending on sensors’ sensitivity, changes in the earth’s magnetic field caused by passing vehicles can be detected and analyzed in order to extract information on the properties of moving vehicles. In this paper, we present a prototype algorithm for real-time, high-accuracy, vehicle detection, and speed measurement, which can be implemented as a portable, low-cost, and non-invasive to existing infrastructure solution with the potential to replace existing high-cost implementations. The paper describes the algorithm and presents results from its preliminary lab testing in a close to real condition environment. Acknowledgments: Work presented in this paper was co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation (call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE) under contract no. Τ1EDK-03081 (project ODOS2020).

Keywords: magnetic sensors, vehicle detection, speed measurement, traffic surveillance system

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Authors: John Rothrock

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Background: The role of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in the diagnosis and management of patients with acute ischemic stroke remains controversial. While many stroke subspecialist reserve TTE for selected patients, others consider the procedure obligatory for most or all acute stroke patients. This study was undertaken to assess the cost vs. benefit of 'routine' TTE. Methods: We examined a consecutive series of patients who were admitted to a single institution in 2019 for acute ischemic stroke and underwent TTE. We sought to determine the frequency with which the results of TTE led to a new diagnosis of cardioembolism, redirected therapeutic cerebrovascular management, and at least potentially influenced the short or long-term clinical outcome. We recorded the direct cost associated with TTE. Results: There were 1076 patients in the study group, all of whom underwent TTE. TTE identified an unsuspected source of possible/probable cardioembolism in 62 patients (6%), confirmed an initially suspected source (primarily endocarditis) in an additional 13 (1%) and produced findings that stimulated subsequent testing diagnostic of possible/probable cardioembolism in 7 patients ( < 1%). TTE results potentially influenced the clinical outcome in a total of 48 patients (4%). With a total direct cost of $1.51 million, the mean cost per case wherein TTE results potentially influenced the clinical outcome in a positive manner was $31,375. Diagnostically and therapeutically, TTE was most beneficial in 67 patients under the age of 55 who presented with 'cryptogenic' stroke, identifying patent foramen ovale in 21 (31%); closure was performed in 19. Conclusions: The utility of TTE in the setting of acute ischemic stroke is modest, with its yield greatest in younger patients with cryptogenic stroke. Given the greater sensitivity of transesophageal echocardiography in detecting PFO and evaluating the aortic arch, TTE’s role in stroke diagnosis would appear to be limited.

Keywords: cardioembolic, cost-benefit, stroke, TTE

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Authors: Christopher Benedikt Jakob

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In our current society, there is no need to take a look at the wristwatch to know the exact time. Smartphones, the watch in the car or the computer watch, inform us about the time too. Over hundreds of years, luxury watches have held a fascination for human beings. Consumers buy watches that cost thousands of euros, although they could buy much cheaper watches which also fulfill the function to indicate the correct time. This shows that the functional value has got a minor meaning with reference to the buying-reasons as regards luxury watches. For a few years, people have an increased demand to track data like their walking distance per day or to track their sleep for example. Smart watches enable consumers to get information about these data. There exists a trend that people intend to optimise parts of their social life, and thus they get the impression that they are able to optimise themselves as human beings. With the help of smart watches, they are able to optimise parts of their productivity and to realise their targets at the same time. These smart watches are also offered as luxury models, and the question is: how will customers of traditional luxury watches react? Therefore this study has the intention to give answers to the question why people are willing to spend an enormous amount of money on the consumption of luxury watches. The self-expression model, the relationship basis model, the functional benefit representation model and the means-end-theory are chosen as an appropriate methodology to find reasons why human beings purchase specific luxury watches and luxury smart watches. This evaluative approach further discusses these strategies concerning for example if consumers buy luxury watches/smart watches to express the current self or the ideal self and if human beings make decisions on expected results. The research critically evaluates that relationships are compared on the basis of their advantages. Luxury brands offer socio-emotional advantages like social functions of identification and that the strong brand personality of luxury watches and luxury smart watches helps customers to structure and retrieve brand awareness which simplifies the process of decision-making. One of the goals is to identify if customers know why they like specific luxury watches and dislike others although they are produced in the same country and cost comparable prices. It is very obvious that the market for luxury watches especially for luxury smart watches is changing way faster than it has been in the past. Therefore the research examines the market changing parameters in detail.

Keywords: buying-behaviour, brand management, consumer, luxury watch, smart watch

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Authors: Valentin Père, Mathieu Milhé, Fabien Baillon, Jean-Louis Dirion

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Microgrids offer potential solutions to meet the need for local grid stability and increase isolated networks autonomy with the integration of intermittent renewable energy production and storage facilities. In such a context, sizing production and storage for a given network is a complex task, highly depending on input data such as power load profile and renewable resource availability. This work aims at developing an operating cost computation methodology for different microgrid designs based on the use of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to tackle the optimal operation problem in stochastic environments. RL is a data-based sequential decision control method based on Markov decision processes that enable the consideration of random variables for control at a chosen time scale. Agents trained via RL constitute a promising class of Energy Management Systems (EMS) for the operation of microgrids with energy storage. Microgrid sizing (or design) is generally performed by minimizing investment costs and operational costs arising from the EMS behavior. The latter might include economic aspects (power purchase, facilities aging), social aspects (load curtailment), and ecological aspects (carbon emissions). Sizing variables are related to major constraints on the optimal operation of the network by the EMS. In this work, an islanded mode microgrid is considered. Renewable generation is done with photovoltaic panels; an electrochemical battery ensures short-term electricity storage. The controllable unit is a hydrogen tank that is used as a long-term storage unit. The proposed approach focus on the transfer of agent learning for the near-optimal operating cost approximation with deep RL for each microgrid size. Like most data-based algorithms, the training step in RL leads to important computer time. The objective of this work is thus to study the potential of Batch-Constrained Q-learning (BCQ) for the optimal sizing of microgrids and especially to reduce the computation time of operating cost estimation in several microgrid configurations. BCQ is an off-line RL algorithm that is known to be data efficient and can learn better policies than on-line RL algorithms on the same buffer. The general idea is to use the learned policy of agents trained in similar environments to constitute a buffer. The latter is used to train BCQ, and thus the agent learning can be performed without update during interaction sampling. A comparison between online RL and the presented method is performed based on the score by environment and on the computation time.

Keywords: batch-constrained reinforcement learning, control, design, optimal

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Authors: Srikanth Nagarajan, P. Parthasarathy, Frits Lagers

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Lower crude oil prices increased the pressure on oil and gas projects. Being competitive becomes very important and critical for the success in any industry. Increase in size of the project multiplies the magnitude of the issue. Timely completion of projects within the budget and schedule is very important for any project to succeed. A simple idea makes a larger impact on the total cost of the plant. In this robust world, the phases of engineering right from licensing technology, feed, different phases of detail engineering, procurement and construction has been so much compressed that they overlap with each other. Hence constructability techniques have become very important. Here in this paper, the focus will be on how these techniques can be implemented and reduce cost with the help of a case study. Constructability is a process driven by the need to impact project’s construction phase resulting in improved project delivery, costs and schedule. In construction phase of one of our fast-track mega project, it was noticed that there was an opportunity to reduce significant amount of cost and schedule by implementing Constructability study processes. In this case study, the actual methodology adopted during engineering and construction and the way for doing it better by implementing Constructability techniques with collaborative engineering efforts will be explained.

Keywords: being competitive, collaborative engineering, constructability, cost reduction

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Authors: Mengna Hu

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of an anti-speculation tax policy on the trading activities and home price movements in the housing market in Hong Kong. The study focuses on the secondary residential property market where transactions dominate. The policy intervention substantially raised the transaction cost to speculators as well as genuine homeowners who dispose their homes within a certain period. Through the demonstration of structural breaks, our empirical results show that the rise in transaction cost effectively reduced speculative trading activities. However, it accelerated price increase in the small-sized segment by vastly demotivating existing homeowners from trading up to better homes, causing congestion in the lower-end market where the demand from first-time buyers is still strong. Apart from that, by employing regime switching approach, we further show that the unintended consequences are likely to be persistent due to this policy together with other strengthened cooling measures.

Keywords: transaction costs, housing market, structural breaks, regime switching

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Authors: Sujit Kumar Pradhan, Anil Kumar, Vijay Kumar

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The testing process of the software during the software development time is a crucial step as it makes the software more efficient and dependable. To estimate software’s reliability through the mean value function, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) were developed under the assumption that operating and testing environments are the same. Practically, it is not true because when the software works in a natural field environment, the reliability of the software differs. This article discussed an SRGM comprising change-point and imperfect debugging in a simulated testing environment. Later on, we extended it in a multi-release direction. Initially, the software was released to the market with few features. According to the market’s demand, the software company upgraded the current version by adding new features as time passed. Therefore, we have proposed a generalized multi-release SRGM where change-point and imperfect debugging concepts have been addressed in a simulated testing environment. The failure-increasing rate concept has been adopted to determine the change point for each software release. Based on nine goodness-of-fit criteria, the proposed model is validated on two real datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model fits the datasets better. We have also discussed the optimal release time of the software through a cost model by assuming that the testing and debugging costs are time-dependent.

Keywords: software reliability growth models, non-homogeneous Poisson process, multi-release software, mean value function, change-point, environmental factors

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Authors: Brenda R. Berca, Jessica S. Vieira, Lucas G. Candido, Matheus C. Ferreira, Paulo S. A. Lopes Filho, Rafaella O. Baracho

Abstract:

This study aims to estimate the economic value environmental services sustained by Flamboyant Lourival Louza Municipal Park in Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil. The Flamboyant Park is one of the most relevant urban parks, and it is located near a stadium, a shopping center, and two supercenters. In order to define the methods used for the valuation of Flamboyant Park, the first step was carrying out bibliographical research with the view to better understand which method is most feasible to valuate the Park. Thus, the following direct methods were selected: travel cost, hedonic pricing, and contingent valuation. In addition, an indirect method (replacement cost) was applied at Flamboyant Park. The second step was creating and applying two surveys. The first survey aimed at the visitors of the park, addressing socio-economic issues, the use of the Park, as well as its importance and the willingness the visitors, had to pay for its existence. The second survey was destined to the existing trade in the Park, in order to collect data regarding the profits obtained by them. In the end, the characterization of the profile of the visitors and the application of the methods of contingent valuation, travel cost, replacement cost and hedonic pricing were obtained, thus monetarily valuing the various ecosystem services sustained by the park. Some services were not valued due to difficulties encountered during the process.

Keywords: contingent valuation, ecosystem services, economic environmental valuation, hedonic pricing, travel cost

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Authors: Timothy J. Considine, Edward J. M. Manderson

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This paper develops an econometric forecasting system of energy demand coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply. The framework is used to quantify the impact of state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) achieved predominately with solar generation on electricity rates, electricity consumption, and environmental quality. We perform the analysis using Arizona’s RPS as a case study. We forecast energy demand in Arizona out to 2035, and find by this time the state will require an additional 35 million MWh of electricity generation. If Arizona implements its RPS when supplying this electricity demand, we find there will be a substantial increase in electricity rates (relative to a business-as-usual scenario of reliance on gas-fired generation). Extending the current regime of tax credits can greatly reduce this increase, at the taxpayers’ expense. We find that by 2025 Arizona’s RPS will implicitly abate carbon dioxide emissions at a cost between $101 and $135 per metric ton, and by 2035 abatement costs are between $64 and $112 per metric ton (depending on the future evolution of nature gas prices).

Keywords: electricity demand, renewable portfolio standard, solar, carbon dioxide

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Authors: R. Vigneswaran, S. Thilakanathan

Abstract:

Variable time-stepping algorithms for solving dynamical systems performed poorly for long time computations which pass close to a fixed point. To overcome this difficulty, several authors considered phase space error controls for numerical simulation of dynamical systems. In one generalized phase space error control, a step-size selection scheme was proposed, which allows this error control to be incorporated into the standard adaptive algorithm as an extra constraint at negligible extra computational cost. For this generalized error control, it was already analyzed the forward Euler method applied to the linear system whose coefficient matrix has real and negative eigenvalues. In this paper, this result was extended to the linear system whose coefficient matrix has complex eigenvalues with negative real parts. Some theoretical results were obtained and numerical experiments were carried out to support the theoretical results.

Keywords: adaptivity, fixed point, long time simulations, stability, linear system

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Authors: Shahab Shafayyan, Tara Naderi

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Biogas is the product of decomposition of organic materials. A variety of sources, including animal wastes, municipal solid wastes, sewage and agricultural wastes may be used to produce biogas in an anaerobic process. The main forming material of biogas is methane gas, which can be used directly in a variety of ways, such as heating and as fuel, which is very common in a number of countries, such as China and India. In this article, the cost of biogas production from animal fertilizers, and its refined form, bio methane gas has been studied and it is shown that it can be an alternative for natural gas in terms of costs, in the near future. The cost of biogas purification to biomethane is more than three times the cost of biogas production for an average unit. Biomethane production costs, calculated for a small unit, is about $9/MMBTU and for an average unit is about $5.9/MMBTU.

Keywords: biogas, biomethane, anaerobic digestion, economic evaluation

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Authors: Clara Stella Anugerah

Abstract:

This study actually is a reflection of the general election in 2014. The researcher was interested in this case as the assessment of several phenomenons that happened recently. One of them is the use of social media for the campaign. By this modern era, social media becomes closer with society. It gains the communication process, and by the time being communicating others also becomes easier than before. Furthermore, social media can minimize the cost of communication with many people as a far distance that often comes to be an obstacle of communication does not become a big problem anymore. In Indonesia, the advantages of social media were used by a political party, Gerindra, to face the election that was held on 2014. Actually Gerindra is a newly formed political party that was established in 2008. In spite of Gerindra is the new comer in the election, according to the General Election Committee’s data in Indonesia, Gerindra has the biggest budget than others to cost campaign in social media. Because of that, this research wants to look “how is the pattern of Gerindra party’s campaign to face the general election in 2014? To ask that question, the theory used for this research is campaign method based on ICT (Information Communication Technology) by Rummele. According to the rummele, Gerindra was a party that used a product of social media massively, mainly facebook and twitter. According to that observation, this research focus on campaign that had been done by Gerindra in both of those social media by the time window given by KPU (General Election Committee) on Maret 16th until April 5th, 2014. The conclusion was derived by content analysis method that was used in the methodology. In this context, that method was used while interpreting the content uploaded by Gerindra to facebook or twitter, such as picture and writing. Finally, by that method and reflecting the rummele theory, this research inferred that the patern used for Gerindra’s campaign in social media tends to be top-down. It means: Gerindra showed uncommunicative tendency in social media and only want to catch much mass without mentioned a mission and vision clearly.

Keywords: Gerindra party, political party, social media, campaign, general election on 2014

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