Search results for: achievement model

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

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This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision-making.

Keywords: ecosystem model, environmental security, fuzzy logic, sustainability of habitable regions

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Authors: Hassan Al Salman

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We consider a nonlinear parabolic cross diffusion model arising in applied mathematics. A fully practical piecewise linear finite element approximation of the model is studied. By using entropy-type inequalities and compactness arguments, existence of a global weak solution is proved. Providing further regularity of the solution of the model, some uniqueness results and error estimates are established. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed.

Keywords: cross diffusion model, entropy-type inequality, finite element approximation, numerical analysis

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Authors: Rui Mao, Heming Ji, Xiaoyu Wang

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Keystroke dynamics are widely used in identity recognition. It has the advantage that the individual typing rhythm is difficult to imitate. It also supports continuous authentication through the keyboard without extra devices. The existing keystroke dynamics authentication methods based on machine learning have a drawback in supporting relatively complex scenarios with massive data. There are drawbacks to both feature extraction and model optimization in these methods. To overcome the above weakness, an authentication model of keystroke dynamics based on deep learning is proposed. The model uses feature vectors formed by keystroke content and keystroke time. It ensures efficient continuous authentication by cooperating attention mechanisms with the combination of CNN and Bi-LSTM. The model has been tested with Open Data Buffalo dataset, and the result shows that the FRR is 3.09%, FAR is 3.03%, and EER is 4.23%. This proves that the model is efficient and accurate on continuous authentication.

Keywords: keystroke dynamics, identity authentication, deep learning, CNN, LSTM

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

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In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design and modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization

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Authors: Abdulrazzak Akroot, Lutfu Namli

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Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are one of the most promising technologies since they can produce electricity directly from fuel and generate a lot of waste heat that is generally used in the gas turbines to promote the general performance of the thermal power plant. In this study, the energy, and exergy analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid system was proceed in MATLAB to examine the performance characteristics of the hybrid system in two different configurations: anode-supported model and electrolyte-supported model. The obtained results indicate that if the fuel utilization factor reduces from 0.85 to 0.65, the overall efficiency decreases from 64.61 to 59.27% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 58.3 to 56.4% for the electrolyte-supported model. Besides, the overall exergy reduces from 53.86 to 44.06% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 39.96 to 33.94% for the electrolyte-supported model. Furthermore, increasing the air utilization factor has a negative impact on the electrical power output and the efficiencies of the overall system due to the reduction in the O₂ concentration at the cathode-electrolyte interface.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, anode-supported model, electrolyte-supported model, energy analysis, exergy analysis

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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The purpose of work is to study the phenomenon of agitation of storm waves at basin caused by different directions of waves relative to the current provision thrown numerical model based on the equation in shallow water using Boussinesq model MIKE 21 BW. According to the diminishing effect of penetration of a wave optimal solution will be available to be reproduced in reduced model. Another alternative arrangement throws will be proposed to reduce the agitation and the effects of the swell reflection caused by the penetration of waves in the harbor.

Keywords: agitation, Boussinesq equations, combination, harbor

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Authors: Matthew Perkins-McVey

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The pharmacological arm of mental health treatment is in a state of crisis. The promises of the Prozac century have fallen short; the number of different therapeutically significant medications that successfully complete development shrinks with every passing year, and the demand for better treatments only grows. Answering these hardships is a renewed optimism concerning the efficacy of controlled psychedelic therapy, a renaissance that has seen the return of a familiar concept: intoxication as a model psychosis. First appearing in the mid-19th century and featuring in an array of 20th century efforts in psychedelic research, model psychosis has, once more, come to the foreground of psychedelic research. And yet, little has been made of where this peculiar, perhaps even intoxicatingly mad, the idea originates. This paper seeks to uncover the conceptual foundations underlying the early emergence of model psychosis. This narrative will explore the conceptual foundations behind their independent development of the concept of model psychosis, considering their similarities and differences. In the course of this examination, it becomes apparent that the definition of endogenous psychosis, which formed in the mid-19th century, is the direct product of emerging understandings of exogenous psychosis, or model psychosis. Ultimately, the goal is not merely to understand how and why model psychosis became thinkable but to examine how seemingly secondary concept changes can engender new ways of being a psychiatric subject.

Keywords: history of psychiatry, model psychosis, history of medicine, history of science

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: M. Saeed, A. Shahidzadeh

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Interaction between teachers and learners requires applying a set of samples (examples) which helps to create coordination between the goals and methods. The main result and achievement and application of samples (examples) are that they can bring the teacher and learner to a shared understanding of the concept. mathematical concepts, and also one of the challenging issues in the discussion of the function is to find the collision points of functions of and, regarding that the example space of teachers is different in this issue, this paper aims to present an example space including several problems of the secondary school with the help of intuition and drawing various graphs of functions of and for more familiarity of teachers.

Keywords: inverse function, educational example, Mathematic example, example space

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Irene T. Ho

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Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) studying in mainstream schools often face difficulties adjusting to school life and teachers often find it challenging to meet the needs of these students. The Hong Kong Jockey Club Autism Support Network (JC A-Connect) is an initiative launched in 2015 to enhance support for students with ASD as well as their families and schools. The School Support Programme of the Project aims at building the capacity of schools to provide quality education for these students. The present report provides a summary of the main features of the support model and the related evaluation results. The school support model was conceptualized in response to four observed needs: (1) inadequate teacher expertise in dealing with the related challenges, (2) the need to promote evidence-based practices in schools, (3) less than satisfactory home-school collaboration and whole-school participation, and (4) lack of concerted effort by different parties involved in providing support to schools. The resulting model had partnership and capacity building as two guiding tenets for the School Support Programme. There were two levels of partnership promoted in the project. At the programme support level, a platform that enables effective collaboration among major stakeholders was established, including the funding body that provides the necessary resources, the Education Bureau that helps to engage schools, university experts who provide professional leadership and research support, as well as non-governmental organization (NGO) professionals who provide services to the schools. At the programme implementation level, tripartite collaboration among teachers, parents and professionals was emphasized. This notion of partnership permeated efforts at capacity building targeting students with ASD, school personnel, parents and peers. During 2015 to 2018, school-based programmes were implemented in over 400 primary and secondary schools with the following features: (1) spiral Tier 2 (group) training for students with ASD to enhance their adaptive skills, led by professionals but with strong teacher involvement to promote transfer of knowledge and skills; (2) supplementary programmes for teachers, parents and peers to enhance their capability to support students with ASD; and (3) efforts at promoting continuing or transfer of learning, on the part of both students and teachers, to Tier 1 (classroom practice) and Tier 3 (individual training) contexts. Over 5,000 students participated in the Programme, representing about 50% of students diagnosed with ASD in mainstream public sector schools in Hong Kong. Results showed that the Programme was effective in helping students improve to various extents at three levels: achievement of specific training goals, improvement in adaptive skills in school, and change in ASD symptoms. The sense of competence of teachers and parents in dealing with ASD-related issues, measured by self-report rating scales, was also significantly enhanced. Moreover, effects on enhancing the school system to provide support for students with ASD, assessed according to indicators of inclusive education, were seen. The process and results of this Programme illustrate how obstacles to inclusive education for students with ASD could be overcome by strengthening the necessary partnerships and building the required capabilities of all parties concerned.

Keywords: autism, school support, skills training, teacher development, three-tier model

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Authors: Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sylwia Szporak

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We applied a two-dimensional surface water flow model with irregular wet boundaries. In this model, flow equations are in the form of a 2-D, non-linear diffusion equations which allows to account spatial variations in flow resistance and topography. Calculation domain to simulate the flow pattern in the floodplain is congruent with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) grid. The rate and direction of sheet flow in wetlands is affected by vegetation type and density, therefore the developed model take into account spatial distribution vegetation resistance to the water flow. The model was tested in a part of the Biebrza Valley, of an outstanding heterogeneity in the elevation and flow resistance distributions due to various ecohydrological conditions and management measures. In our approach we used the highest-possible quality of the DEM in order to obtain hydraulic slopes and vegetation distribution parameters for the modelling. The DEM was created from the cloud of points measured in the LiDAR technology. The LiDAR reflects both the land surface as well as all objects on top of it such as vegetation. Depending on the density of vegetation cover the ability of laser penetration is variable. Therefore to obtain accurate land surface model the “vegetation effect” was corrected using data collected in the field (mostly the vegetation height) and satellite imagery such as Ikonos (to distinguish different vegetation types of the floodplain and represent them spatially). Model simulation was performed for the spring thaw flood in 2009.

Keywords: floodplain flow, Biebrza valley, model simulation, 2D surface flow model

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Authors: Chiharu Miyata, Hidenori Arai

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Background: The quality of care in geriatric intermediate facilities (GIFs) in Japan is not in a satisfied level. To improve it, it is crucial to reconsider nurses’ professionalism. Our goal is to create an organizational system that allows nurses to succeed professionally. To do this, we must first discuss the relationship between nurses’ characteristics and the organization. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which demographic and work-related factors are related to organizational commitment among nurses in GIFs. Method: A quantitative, cross-sectional method was adopted, using a self-completion questionnaire survey. The questionnaires consisted of 49 items for job satisfaction, the three-dimensional commitment model of organizational commitment and the background information of respondents. Results: A total of 1,189 nurses participated. Of those, 91% (n=1084) were women, and mean age was 48.2 years. Most participants were staff nurses (n=791; 66%). Significant differences in 'affective commitment' (AC) scores were found for age (p < .001), overall work experience (p < .001), and work status (p < .001). For work experience in the current facility, significant differences were found in all organizational commitment scores (p < .001). The group with high job satisfaction scored significantly higher in all types of organizational commitment (p < 0.001). Conclusions: These results led to a conclusion that understanding the expectations of nurses at the workplace to adapt with the organization, and creating a work environment that clarifies contents of tasks, especially allowing for nurses to feel significance and achievement with tasks, would increase AC.

Keywords: geriatric intermediate care facilities, geriatric nursing, job satisfaction, organizational commitment

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

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Authors: Li Xiaoge, Wang Chaodong

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We introduce the first Chinese Coreference Resolution Model based on BERT (CCRM-BERT) and show that it significantly outperforms all previous work. The key idea is to consider the features of the mention, such as part of speech, width of spans, distance between spans, etc. And the influence of each features on the model is analyzed. The model computes mention embeddings that combine BERT with features. Compared to the existing state-of-the-art span-ranking approach, our model significantly improves accuracy on the Chinese OntoNotes benchmark.

Keywords: BERT, coreference resolution, deep learning, nature language processing

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Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Babak Bashari Rad

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A metamorphic computer virus uses different code transformation techniques to mutate its body in duplicated instances. Characteristics and function of new instances are mostly similar to their parents, but they cannot be easily detected by the majority of antivirus in market, as they depend on string signature-based detection techniques. The purpose of this research is to propose a Hidden Markov Model for classification of metamorphic viruses in executable files. In the proposed solution, portable executable files are inspected to extract the instructions opcodes needed for the examination of code. A Hidden Markov Model trained on portable executable files is employed to classify the metamorphic viruses of the same family. The proposed model is able to generate and recognize common statistical features of mutated code. The model has been evaluated by examining the model on a test data set. The performance of the model has been practically tested and evaluated based on False Positive Rate, Detection Rate and Overall Accuracy. The result showed an acceptable performance with high average of 99.7% Detection Rate.

Keywords: malware classification, computer virus classification, metamorphic virus, metamorphic malware, Hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim

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In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption, we can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, self-adaptive, UML, vehicle

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Authors: Ahmad Zaini, F. Muhammad Reza Hadafi, Surya Sumpeno, Muhtadin, Mochamad Hariadi

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The lack of information about museum’s collection reduces the number of visits of museum. Museum’s revitalization is an urgent activity to increase the number of visits. The research's roadmap is building a web-based application that visualizes museum in the virtual form including museum's statue reconstruction in the form of 3D. This paper describes implementation of three-dimensional model reconstruction method based on light-strip pattern on the museum statue using 3D scanner. Noise removal, alignment, meshing and refinement model's processes is implemented to get a better 3D object reconstruction. Model’s texture derives from surface texture mapping between object's images with reconstructed 3D model. Accuracy test of dimension of the model is measured by calculating relative error of virtual model dimension compared against the original object. The result is realistic three-dimensional model textured with relative error around 4.3% to 5.8%.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction, light pattern structure, texture mapping, museum

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Authors: Mercy Marimirofa, Farai Machinga, Alfred Zvoushe, Tsitsidzaishe Musvosvi

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The Government of Zimbabwe embarked on integrating family planning with Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) services in May 2020 with support from the World Health Organization (WHO). There was high HIV prevalence, incidence rates and STI infections among women attending FP clinics. Spilhaus is a specialized center of excellence clinic which offers a range of sexual reproductive health services. HIV services were limited to testing only, and clients were referred to other facilities for further management. Integration of services requires that all the services be available at one point so that clients will access them during their visit to the facility. Objectives: The study was conducted to assess the impact the one-stop-shop model has made in accessing integrated Family Planning services and sexual reproductive health services compared to the supermarket approach. It also assessed the relationship family planning services have with other sexual reproductive health services. Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted at Spilhaus clinic in Harare using family planning registers and HIV services registers comparing years 2019 and 2021. A 2 sample t-test was used to determine the difference in clients accessing the services under the two models. A Spearman’s rank correlation was used to determine if accessing family planning services has a relationship with other sexual reproductive health services. Results: In 2019, 7,548 clients visited the Spilhaus clinic compared to 8,265 during the period January to December 2021. The median age for all clients accessing services was 32 years. An increase of 69% in the number of services accessed was recorded from 2019 to 2021. More services were accessed in 2021. There was no difference in the number of clients accessing family planning services cervical cancer, and HIV services. A difference was found in the number of clients who were offered STI screening services. There was also a relationship between accessing family planning services and STI screening services (ρ = 0.729, p-value=0.006). Conclusion: Programming towards SRH services was a great achievement, the use of an integrated approach proved to be cost-effective as it minimised the required resources for separate programs. Clients accessed important health needs at once. The integration of these services provided an opportunity to offer comprehensive information which addressed an individual’s sexual reproductive health needs.

Keywords: intergration, one stop shop, family planning, reproductive health

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Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

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A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

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Authors: Kyeong Hoon Park, Taiji Mazuda

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High damping rubber (HDR) bearings are dissipating devices mainly used in seismic isolation systems and have a great damping performance. Although many studies have been conducted on the dynamic model of HDR bearings, few models can reflect phenomena such as dependency of experienced shear strain on initial history. In order to develop a model that can represent the dependency of experienced shear strain of HDR by Mullins effect, dynamic loading test was conducted using HDR specimen. The reaction of HDR was measured by applying a horizontal vibration using a hybrid actuator under a constant vertical load. Dynamic program analysis was also performed after dynamic loading test. The dynamic model applied in program analysis is a bilinear type double-target model. This model is modified from typical bilinear model. This model can express the nonlinear characteristics related to the initial history of HDR bearings. Based on the dynamic loading test and program analysis results, equivalent stiffness and equivalent damping ratio were calculated to evaluate the mechanical properties of HDR and the feasibility of the bilinear type double-target model was examined.

Keywords: base-isolation, bilinear model, high damping rubber, loading test

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Authors: Anurag Savarnya

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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

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Authors: Bahar Ayberk

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The study was conducted to determine the relationship between physical fitness and academic performance among university students. A far-famed saying ‘Sound mind in a sound body’ referring to the potential quality of increased physical fitness in the intellectual development of individuals seems to be endorsed. There is a growing body of literature the impact of physical fitness on academic achievement, especially in elementary and middle-school aged children. Even though there are numerous positive effects related to being physically active and physical fitness, their effect on academic achievement is not very much clear for university students. The subjects for this study included 25 students (20 female and 5 male) enrolled in Yeditepe University, Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation Department of Health Science Faculty. All participants filled in a questionnaire about their socio-demographic status, general health status, and physical activity status. Health-related physical fitness testing, included several core components: 1) body composition evaluation (body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio), 2) cardiovascular endurance evaluation (queen’s college step test), 3) muscle strength and endurance evaluation (sit-up test, push-up test), 4) flexibility evaluation (sit and reach test). Academic performance evaluation was based on student’s Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA). The prevalence of the subjects participating physical activity was found to be 40% (n = 10). CGPA scores were significantly higher among students having regular physical activity when we compared the students having regular physical activities or not (respectively 2,71 ± 0.46, 3.02 ± 0.28 scores, p = 0.076). The result of the study also revealed that there is positive correlation relationship between sit-up, push up and academic performance points (CGPA) (r = 0.43, p ≤ 0.05 ) and negative correlation relationship between cardiovascular endurance parameter (Queen's College Step Test) and academic performance points (CGPA) (r = -0.47, p ≤ 0.05). In conclusion, the findings confirmed that physical fitness level was generally associated with academic performance in the study group. Cardiovascular endurance and muscle strength and endurance were associated with student’s CGPA, whereas body composition and flexibility were unrelated to CGPA.

Keywords: academic performance, health-related physical fitness, physical activity, physical fitness testing

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Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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