Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: N. E. Gallagher, C. E. Neville, N. Lyner, J. Yarnell, C. C. Patterson, J. E. Gallacher, Y. Ben-Shlomo, A. Fehily, J. V. Woodside

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Hearing loss is highly prevalent in older people and can reduce quality of life substantially. Emerging research suggests that potentially modifiable risk factors, including risk factors previously related to cardiovascular disease risk, may be associated with a decreased or increased incidence of hearing loss. This has prompted investigation into the possibility that certain nutrients, foods or dietary patterns may also be associated with incidence of hearing loss. The aim of this study was to determine any associations between dietary patterns and hearing loss in men enrolled in the Caerphilly study. The Caerphilly prospective cohort study began in 1979-1983 with recruitment of 2512 men aged 45-59 years. Dietary data was collected using a self-administered, semi-quantitative, 56-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) at baseline (1979-1983), and 7-day weighed food intake (WI) in a 30% sub-sample, while pure-tone unaided audiometric threshold was assessed at 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz, between 1984 and 1988. Principal components analysis (PCA) was carried out to determine a posteriori dietary patterns and multivariate linear and logistic regression models were used to examine associations with hearing level (pure tone average (PTA) of frequencies 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz in decibels (dB)) for linear regression and with hearing loss (PTA>25dB) for logistic regression. Three dietary patterns were determined using PCA on the FFQ data- Traditional, Healthy, High sugar/Alcohol avoider. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, both linear and logistic regression analyses showed a significant and inverse association between the Healthy pattern and hearing loss (P<0.001) and linear regression analysis showed a significant association between the High sugar/Alcohol avoider pattern and hearing loss (P=0.04). Three similar dietary patterns were determined using PCA on the WI data- Traditional, Healthy, High sugar/Alcohol avoider. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, logistic regression analyses showed a significant and inverse association between the Healthy pattern and hearing loss (P=0.02) and a significant association between the Traditional pattern and hearing loss (P=0.04). A Healthy dietary pattern was found to be significantly inversely associated with hearing loss in middle-aged men in the Caerphilly study. Furthermore, a High sugar/Alcohol avoider pattern (FFQ) and a Traditional pattern (WI) were associated with poorer hearing levels. Consequently, the role of dietary factors in hearing loss remains to be fully established and warrants further investigation.

Keywords: ageing, diet, dietary patterns, hearing loss

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Authors: Begum Koru, Isik Aybay, Demet Celik Ulusoy

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The discipline of law is quite complex and has its own terminology. Apart from written legal rules, there is also living law, which refers to legal practice. Basic legal rules aim at the happiness of individuals in social life and have different characteristics in different branches such as public or private law. On the other hand, law is a national phenomenon. The law of one nation and the legal system applied on the territory of another nation may be completely different. People who are experts in a particular field of law in one country may have insufficient expertise in the law of another country. Today, in addition to the local nature of law, international and even supranational law rules are applied in order to protect basic human values and ensure the protection of human rights around the world. Systems that offer algorithmic solutions to legal problems using artificial intelligence (AI) tools will perhaps serve to produce very meaningful results in terms of human rights. However, algorithms to be used should not be developed by only computer experts, but also need the contribution of people who are familiar with law, values, judicial decisions, and even the social and political culture of the society to which it will provide solutions. Otherwise, even if the algorithm works perfectly, it may not be compatible with the values of the society in which it is applied. The latest developments involving the use of AI techniques in legal systems indicate that artificial law will emerge as a new field in the discipline of law. More AI systems are already being applied in the field of law, with examples such as predicting judicial decisions, text summarization, decision support systems, and classification of documents. Algorithms for legal systems employing AI tools, especially in the field of prediction of judicial decisions and decision support systems, have the capacity to create automatic decisions instead of judges. When the judge is removed from this equation, artificial intelligence-made law created by an intelligent algorithm on its own emerges, whether the domain is national or international law. In this work, the aim is to make a general analysis of this new topic. Such an analysis needs both a literature survey and a perspective from computer experts' and lawyers' point of view. In some societies, the use of prediction or decision support systems may be useful to integrate international human rights safeguards. In this case, artificial law can serve to produce more comprehensive and human rights-protective results than written or living law. In non-democratic countries, it may even be thought that direct decisions and artificial intelligence-made law would be more protective instead of a decision "support" system. Since the values of law are directed towards "human happiness or well-being", it requires that the AI algorithms should always be capable of serving this purpose and based on the rule of law, the principle of justice and equality, and the protection of human rights.

Keywords: AI and law, artificial law, protection of human rights, AI tools for legal systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Nino Damenia

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The paper discusses the risks arising in agriculture in Georgia, the possibilities of their acceptance and prevention, the threat created by the pandemic crisis, and the state programs for overcoming them. The share of agriculture in the country's GDP is 8.3%. Over the past five years, Georgia has imported $ 5.9 billion worth of agri-food products. Despite these figures, agriculture has become an important sector for the Georgian government since 2012, as evidenced by the more than 1.5 billion GEL spent from the 2012-2020 budget for agricultural development. Any field of agriculture, be it poultry, livestock, cereals, fruits, or vegetables, is very sensitive to various climatic and viral risks. Avoiding these risks requires additional investment. It is noteworthy that small farms are mainly affected by the risks, while relatively large farms face fewer problems because they are relatively prepared to face the problems and can avoid them more easily. An example of viral risk in the article is the export of hazelnuts, which has quite a lot of potential. Due to the spoilage of the crop caused by Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), hazelnut exports have declined considerably over the years. If the volume of hazelnuts exported in 2016 was 179 378 thousand USD, due to the deficit caused by Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) in 2018, it became 57 124 thousand USD. And after the situation was relatively settled, hazelnut seedlings were poisoned. By 2020, this figure improved to 91,088 thousand US dollars. The development of the agricultural sector and the reduction of risks require technological development, investor interest, and even more state support to enable more small farms to have the potential for greater production and sustainable development. The aim of the study is to identify the risks arising in the agricultural sector of Georgia before and after the pandemic, to evaluate them, compare them with the agriculture of some European countries, and to develop the necessary recommendations to avoid the emerging risks. The research uses methods of analysis and synthesis, observation, induction, deduction, and analysis of statistics. The paper is based on both Georgian and foreign scientific research, as well as state-published documentation on agricultural assistance programs. The research is based on the analysis of data published by the European Statistics Office, the National Statistics Office of Georgia, and many other organizations. The results of the study and the recommendations will help reduce the risks in agriculture in Georgia and, in general, to identify the existing potential and the development of the sector as a whole.

Keywords: risk, agriculture, pandemi, brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB)

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Authors: Angga S. Fajar, A. Aminullah, J. Kiyono, R. A. Safitri

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This paper discusses about the application of ANN for optimizing of bridge structure design. ANN has been applied in various field of science concerning prediction and optimization. The structural optimization has several benefit including accelerate structural design process, saving the structural material, and minimize self-weight and mass of structure. In this paper, there are three types of bridge structure that being optimized including PSC I-girder superstructure, composite steel-concrete girder superstructure, and RC bridge pier. The different optimization strategy on each bridge structure implement back propagation method of ANN is conducted in this research. The optimal weight and easier design process of bridge structure with satisfied error are achieved.

Keywords: bridge structures, ANN, optimization, back propagation

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Authors: Renée Fregosi

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The contribution presently proposed will report on the beginnings of a Franco-Chilean study to be launched in 2015 by a multidisciplinary team of Renée Fregosi Political Science University Paris 3 / CECIEC, Norma Muñoz Public Policies University of Santiago of Chile, Jean-Daniel Lelievre, Medicine Paris 11 University, Marcelo WOLFF Medicine University of Chile, Cecilia Blatrix Political Science University Paris-Tech, Ernesto OTTONE, Political Science University of Chile, Paul DENY Medicine Paris 13 University, Rafael Bugueno Medicine Hospital Urgencia Pública of Santiago, Eduardo CARRASCO Political Science Paris 3 University. The problem of hidden populations challenges some criteria and concepts to re-examine: in particular the concept of target population, sampling methods to "snowball" and the cost-effectiveness criterion that shows the connection of political and scientific fields. Furthermore, if the pattern of homosexual transmission still makes up the highest percentage of the modes of infection with HIV, there is a continuous increase in the number of people infected through heterosexual sex, including women and persons aged 50 years and older. This group can be described as " unknown risk people." Access to these populations is a major challenge and raises methodological, ethical and political issues of prevention, particularly on the issue of screening. This paper proposes an inventory of these types of problems and their articulation, to define a new phase in the prevention against HIV refocused on women.

Keywords: HIV testing, hidden populations, difficult to reach PLWHA, women, unknown risk people

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Authors: Assaad Ghazouani, Ati Abdessatar

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In the world, agriculture maintains a social and economic importance in the national economy. Its importance is distinguished by its ripple effects not only downstream but also upstream vis-à-vis the non-agricultural sector. However, the situation is relatively fragile because of weather conditions. In this work, we propose a model to highlight the impacts of climate change (CC) on economic growth in the world where agriculture is considered as a strategic sector. The CC is supposed to directly and indirectly affect economic growth by reducing the performance of the agricultural sector. The model is tested for Tunisia. The results validate the hypothesis that the potential economic damage of the CC is important. Indeed, an increase in CO2 concentration (temperatures and disruption of rainfall patterns) will have an impact on global economic growth particularly by reducing the performance of the agricultural sector. Analysis from a vector error correction model also highlights the magnitude of climate impact on the performance of the agricultural sector and its repercussions on economic growth

Keywords: Climate Change, Agriculture, Economic Growth, World, VECM, Cointegration.

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Authors: Fang Gong

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Distance measures are an indispensable part of many instance-based learning (IBL) and machine learning (ML) algorithms. The value difference metrics (VDM) and inverted specific-class distance measure (ISCDM) are among the top-performing distance measures that address nominal attributes. VDM performs well in some domains owing to its simplicity and poorly in others that exist missing value and non-class attribute noise. ISCDM, however, typically works better than VDM on such domains. To maximize their advantages and avoid disadvantages, in this paper, a selection approach: a discriminative model for nominal attributes-based distance measures is proposed. More concretely, VDM and ISCDM are built independently on a training dataset at the training stage, and the most credible one is recorded for each training instance. At the test stage, its nearest neighbor for each test instance is primarily found by any of VDM and ISCDM and then chooses the most reliable model of its nearest neighbor to predict its class label. It is simply denoted as a discriminative distance measure (DDM). Experiments are conducted on the 34 University of California at Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository datasets, and it shows DDM retains the interpretability and simplicity of VDM and ISCDM but significantly outperforms the original VDM and ISCDM and other state-of-the-art competitors in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: distance measure, discriminative model, nominal attributes, nearest neighbor

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Authors: Alix Limoges, William Bruch, Christophe Yohia, Jacques Piazzola

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A number of questions arise concerning the long-term impact of the contribution of marine aerosol fluxes generated at the air-sea interface on the occurrence of intense events (storms, floods, etc.) in the coastal environment. To this end, knowledge is needed on sea-spray emission rates and the atmospheric dynamics of the corresponding particles. Our aim is to implement the mesoscale model MESO-NH on the study area using an accurate sea-spray source function to estimate heat fluxes and impact on the precipitations. Based on an original and complete sea-spray source function, which covers a large size spectrum since taking into consideration the sea-spray produced by both bubble bursting and surface tearing process, we propose a comparison between model simulations and experimental data obtained during an oceanic scientific cruise on board the navy ship Atalante. The results show the relevance of the sea-spray flux calculations as well as their impact on the heat fluxes and AOD.

Keywords: atmospheric models, sea-spray source, sea-spray dynamics, aerosols

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Authors: S M Asger Ali, Duane A. Gill

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During crisis moments like a natural disaster, people tend to rely on the mass media to get up-to-date information and stay informed. However, when media are covering crisis news, they may lose some objectivity, and rather than providing balanced news coverage, media may become critical towards the government and private sectors for their participation in disaster response and recovery processes. This paper investigated the print media coverage of Hurricane Harvey and utilized data from three newspapers: the New York Times (online), the Wall Street Journal (online), and the Houston Chronicle. By examining the media's use of descriptors, quotes, wording, and images, this research explored how media coverage framed government and private sectors for their role in Harvey's response and recovery. Findings revealed that the human-interest frame received the most media attention, and the morality frame received less attention. Regarding tone, this study found that the media's overall tone for government response was neutral. However, the tone for the federal government was slightly negative, while the tone for city and state level of government was slightly positive. By examining the media's tone and frame, this research contributes to the literature on risk communication, mass media, and disaster studies.

Keywords: hurricane Harvey, mass media, risk communication, disaster response, media framing, crisis news coverage

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang, Shou-Hsiung Cheng

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This study examined their willingness to use telecare for people who have had experience falling in the last three months in Taiwan. This study adopted convenience sampling and a structural questionnaire to collect data. It was based on the definition and the constructs related to the Health Belief Model (HBM). HBM is comprised of seven constructs: perceived benefits (PBs), perceived disease threat (PDT), perceived barriers of taking action (PBTA), external cues to action (ECUE), internal cues to action (ICUE), attitude toward using (ATT), and behavioral intention to use (BI). This study adopted Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) to put forward an effective method. It shows the dependence of ATT on PB, PDT, PBTA, ECUE, and ICUE. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.028 and 0.166 in the FNN, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.828 and 0.578 in the regression model, respectively. On the other hand, as to the dependence of ATT on BI, as presented in the FNN, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.050 and 0.109, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.529 and 0.571 in the regression model, respectively. The results show that the FNN method is better than the regression analysis. It is an effective and viable good way.

Keywords: fall, fuzzy neural network, health belief model, telecare, willingness

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Authors: Tony Mann

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This paper sets out the case for involving and engaging employees/workers/stakeholders/staff in any significant change that is being considered by the senior executives of the organization. It establishes the rationale, the approach, the methodology of engagement and the benefits of a participative approach. It challenges the new norm of imposing change for fear of resistance and instead suggests that involving people has better outcomes and a longer-lasting impact. Various strategic models are introduced and illustrated to explain how the process can be most effective. The paper highlights one model in particular (the Process Iceberg® Organizational Change model) that has proven to be instrumental in developing effective change. Its use is demonstrated in its various forms and explains why so much change fails to address the key elements and how we can be more productive in managing change. ‘Participation’ in change is too often seen as negative, expensive and unwieldy. The paper aims to show that another model: UIA=O+E, can offset the difficulties and, in fact, produce much more positive and effective change.

Keywords: facilitation, stakeholders, buy-in, digital workshops

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Authors: L. Donelle, S. Regan, R. Booth, M. Kerr, J. McMurray, D. Fitzsimmons

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Palliative home health care provision within the Canadian context is challenged by: (i) a shortage of registered nurses (RN) and RNs with palliative care expertise, (ii) an aging population, (iii) reliance on unpaid family caregivers to sustain home care services with limited support to conduct this ‘care work’, (iv) a model of healthcare that assumes client self-care, and (v) competing economic priorities. In response, an interprofessional team of service provider organizations, a software/technology provider, and health care providers developed and implemented a technology-enabled model of home care, the eShift model of palliative home care (eShift). The eShift model combines communication and documentation technology with non-traditional utilization of health human resources to meet patient needs for palliative care in the home. The purpose of this study was to investigate the structure, processes, and outcomes of the eShift model of care. Methodology: Guided by Donebedian’s evaluation framework for health care, this qualitative-descriptive study investigated the structure, processes, and outcomes care of the eShift model of palliative home care. Interviews and focus groups were conducted with health care providers (n= 45), decision-makers (n=13), technology providers (n=3) and family care givers (n=8). Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and a deductive analysis of transcripts was conducted. Study Findings (1) Structure: The eShift model consists of a remotely-situated RN using technology to direct care provision virtually to patients in their home. The remote RN is connected virtually to a health technician (an unregulated care provider) in the patient’s home using real-time communication. The health technician uses a smartphone modified with the eShift application and communicates with the RN who uses a computer with the eShift application/dashboard. Documentation and communication about patient observations and care activities occur in the eShift portal. The RN is typically accountable for four to six health technicians and patients over an 8-hour shift. The technology provider was identified as an important member of the healthcare team. Other members of the team include family members, care coordinators, nurse practitioners, physicians, and allied health. (2) Processes: Conventionally, patient needs are the focus of care; however within eShift, the patient and the family caregiver were the focus of care. Enhanced medication administration was seen as one of the most important processes, and family caregivers reported high satisfaction with the care provided. There was perceived enhanced teamwork among health care providers. (3) Outcomes: Patients were able to die at home. The eShift model enabled consistency and continuity of care, and effective management of patient symptoms and caregiver respite. Conclusion: More than a technology solution, the eShift model of care was viewed as transforming home care practice and an innovative way to resolve the shortage of palliative care nurses within home care.

Keywords: palliative home care, health information technology, patient-centred care, interprofessional health care team

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Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

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New approaches to sequencing mixed-model manufacturing systems are present. These approaches have attracted considerable attention due to their potential to deal with difficult optimization problems. This paper presents Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing Algorithms (MOSAA) approaches to the Just-In-Time (JIT) sequencing problem where workload-smoothing (WL) and the number of set-ups (St) are to be optimized simultaneously. Mixed-model assembly lines are types of production lines where varieties of product models similar in product characteristics are assembled. Moreover, this type of problem is NP-hard. Two annealing methods are proposed to solve the multi-objective problem and find an efficient frontier of all design configurations. The performances of the two methods are tested on several problems from the literature. Experimentation demonstrates the relative desirable performance of the presented methodology.

Keywords: scheduling, just-in-time, mixed-model assembly line, sequencing, simulated annealing

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi, Boualem Remini

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Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater intrusion, sharp interface, coastal aquifer, algeria

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Authors: A. Azari, S. S. K. Seyyedi

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One of the unaddressed and open challenges in the nano-networking is the characteristics of noise. The previous analysis, however, has concentrated on end-to-end communication model with no separate modelings for propagation channel and noise. By considering a separate signal propagation and noise model, the design and implementation of an optimum receiver will be much easier. In this paper, we justify consideration of a separate additive Gaussian noise model of a nano-communication system based on the molecular communication channel for which are applicable for MSK and MOSK modulation schemes. The presented noise analysis is based on the Brownian motion process, and advection molecular statistics, where the received random signal has a probability density function whose mean is equal to the mean number of the received molecules. Finally, the justification of received signal magnitude being uncorrelated with additive non-stationary white noise is provided.

Keywords: molecular, noise, diffusion, channel

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Authors: Rob Leslie, Taher Karimian

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The blockage of cross drainage structures is a risk that needs to be understood and managed or lessened through the design. A blockage is a random event, influenced by site-specific factors, which needs to be quantified for design. Under and overestimation of blockage can have major impacts on flood risk and cost associated with drainage structures. The importance of this matter is heightened for those projects located within sensitive lands. It is a particularly complex problem for large linear infrastructure projects (e.g., rail corridors) located within floodplains where blockage factors can influence flooding upstream and downstream of the infrastructure. The selection of the appropriate blockage factors for hydraulic modeling has been subject to extensive research by hydraulic engineers. This paper has been prepared to review the current Australian Rainfall and Runoff 2019 (ARR 2019) methodology for blockage assessment by applying this method to a transport corridor brownfield upgrade case study in New South Wales. The results of applying the method are also validated against asset data and maintenance records. ARR 2019 – Book 6, Chapter 6 includes advice and an approach for estimating the blockage of bridges and culverts. This paper concentrates specifically on the blockage of cross drainage structures. The method has been developed to estimate the blockage level for culverts affected by sediment or debris due to flooding. The objective of the approach is to evaluate a numerical blockage factor that can be utilized in a hydraulic assessment of cross drainage structures. The project included an assessment of over 200 cross drainage structures. In order to estimate a blockage factor for use in the hydraulic model, a process has been advanced that considers the qualitative factors (e.g., Debris type, debris availability) and site-specific hydraulic factors that influence blockage. A site rating associated with the debris potential (i.e., availability, transportability, mobility) at each crossing was completed using the method outlined in ARR 2019 guidelines. The hydraulic results inputs (i.e., flow velocity, flow depth) and qualitative factors at each crossing were developed into an advanced spreadsheet where the design blockage level for cross drainage structures were determined based on the condition relating Inlet Clear Width and L10 (average length of the longest 10% of the debris reaching the site) and the Adjusted Debris Potential. Asset data, including site photos and maintenance records, were then reviewed and compared with the blockage assessment to check the validity of the results. The results of this assessment demonstrate that the estimated blockage factors at each crossing location using ARR 2019 guidelines are well-validated with the asset data. The primary finding of the study is that the ARR 2019 methodology is a suitable approach for culvert blockage assessment that has been validated against a case study spanning a large geographical area and multiple sub-catchments. The study also found that the methodology can be effectively coded within a spreadsheet or similar analytical tool to automate its application.

Keywords: ARR 2019, blockage, culverts, methodology

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Authors: Falguni Vasavada, Pradyumna Malladi

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The research focuses on studying the ecosystem of the youth using Ogilvy's 3E model, Ethnography and Thematic Analysis. It has been found that urban Indian youth today is an honest generation, hungry for success, living life by the moment, fiercely independent, are open about sex, sexuality and embrace individual differences. Technology and social media dominate their life. However, they are also phobic about commitments, often drifting along life and engage in unsubstantiated brave-talk.

Keywords: ethnography, youth, culture, track, buyer behavior

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Authors: Davood Rajabi, Mojgan Yazdani

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Non-linear Muskingum model is an efficient method for flood routing, however, the efficiency of this method is influenced by three applied parameters. Therefore, efficiency assessment of Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA) to evaluate optimum parameters of non-linear Muskingum model was addressed through this study. In addition to ICA, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) were also used aiming at an available criterion to verdict ICA. In this regard, ICA was applied for Wilson flood routing; then, routing of two flood events of DoAab Samsami River was investigated. In case of Wilson flood that the target function was considered as the sum of squared deviation (SSQ) of observed and calculated discharges. Routing two other floods, in addition to SSQ, another target function was also considered as the sum of absolute deviations of observed and calculated discharge. For the first floodwater based on SSQ, GA indicated the best performance, however, ICA was on first place, based on SAD. For the second floodwater, based on both target functions, ICA indicated a better operation. According to the obtained results, it can be said that ICA could be used as an appropriate method to evaluate the parameters of Muskingum non-linear model.

Keywords: Doab Samsami river, genetic algorithm, imperialist competition algorithm, meta-exploratory algorithms, particle swarm optimization, Wilson flood

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: M. A. Ghebouli, A. Bouhemadou, H. Choutri, L. Louaila

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Some physical properties of the cubic perovskites CsXF3 (X = Sr, Ca, and Hg) have been investigated using pseudopotential plane–wave (PP-PW) method based on the density functional theory (DFT). The calculated lattice constants within GGA (PBE) and LDA (CA-PZ) agree reasonably with the available experiment data. The elastic constants and their pressure derivatives are predicted using the static finite strain technique. We derived the bulk and shear moduli, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio and Lamé’s constants for ideal polycrystalline aggregates. The analysis of B/G ratio indicates that CsXF3 (X = Ca, Sr, and Hg) are ductile materials. The thermal effect on the volume, bulk modulus, heat capacities CV, CP, and Debye temperature was predicted.

Keywords: perovskite, PP-PW method, elastic constants, electronic band structure

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Authors: Virendra J. Majarikar, Harikrishnan N. Unni

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This paper sets to demonstrate a modeling of electrokinetic mixing employing electroosmotic stationary and time-dependent microchannel using alternate zeta patches on the lower surface of the micromixer in a lab on chip microfluidic device. Electroosmotic flow is amplified using different 2D and 3D model designs with alternate and geometric zeta potential values such as 25, 50, and 100 mV, respectively, to achieve high concentration mixing in the electrokinetically-driven microfluidic system. The enhancement of electrokinetic mixing is studied using Finite Element Modeling, and simulation workflow is accomplished with defined integral steps. It can be observed that the presence of alternate zeta patches can help inducing microvortex flows inside the channel, which in turn can improve mixing efficiency. Fluid flow and concentration fields are simulated by solving Navier-Stokes equation (implying Helmholtz-Smoluchowski slip velocity boundary condition) and Convection-Diffusion equation. The effect of the magnitude of zeta potential, the number of alternate zeta patches, etc. are analysed thoroughly. 2D simulation reveals that there is a cumulative increase in concentration mixing, whereas 3D simulation differs slightly with low zeta potential as that of the 2D model within the T-shaped micromixer for concentration 1 mol/m³ and 0 mol/m³, respectively. Moreover, 2D model results were compared with those of 3D to indicate the importance of the 3D model in a microfluidic design process.

Keywords: COMSOL Multiphysics®, electrokinetic, electroosmotic, microfluidics, zeta potential

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Authors: Manasi V. Shah

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Organizations, in the competitive era, are participating in the competency act. They have discerned that, strategically researched and defined competencies when put up on the shelf, can help in achieving business goals. The research focuses on critical elements of competency-based talent acquisition process from practical vantage, with significant experience in a variety of business settings. The research is exploratory and descriptive in nature. The research conduct and outcome is the hinge on with reference to Indian Industries. It elaborates about the concept, practice and a brief model that human resource practitioner can use for effective talent acquisition process, which in turn would be in alignment with business performance. The research helps to present a prudent understanding of recruiting and selecting apt human capital, that can fit in a given job role and has action oriented competency based assessment approach for measuring the probable success of a job incumbent in a given job role.

Keywords: competency based talent acquisition, competency model, talent acquisition concept, talent acquisition practice

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Authors: Vasileios Anastopoulos

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Cyber threat intelligence assists organizations in understanding the threats they face and helps them make educated decisions on preparing their defenses. Sharing of threat intelligence and threat information is increasingly leveraged by organizations and enterprises, and various software solutions are already available, with the open-source malware information sharing platform (MISP) being a popular one. In this work, a methodology for the production of cyber threat intelligence using the threat information stored in MISP is proposed. The methodology leverages the discipline of social network analysis and the diamond model, a model used for intrusion analysis, to produce cyber threat intelligence. The workings are demonstrated with a case study on a production MISP instance of a real organization. The paper concluded with a discussion on the proposed methodology and possible directions for further research.

Keywords: cyber threat intelligence, diamond model, malware information sharing platform, social network analysis

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Authors: A. M. Byrne, E. Bonfiglio, C. Rigby, N. Edelstyn

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Introduction: Neuromarketing employs numerous methodologies when investigating products and advertisement effectiveness. Electroencephalography (EEG), a non-invasive measure of electrical activity from the brain, is commonly used in neuromarketing. EEG data can be considered using time-frequency (TF) analysis, where changes in the frequency of brainwaves are calculated to infer participant’s mental states, or event-related potential (ERP) analysis, where changes in amplitude are observed in direct response to a stimulus. This presentation discusses the findings of a systematic review of EEG measures in neuromarketing. A systematic review summarises evidence on a research question, using explicit measures to identify, select, and critically appraise relevant research papers. Thissystematic review identifies which EEG measures are the most robust predictor of customer preference and purchase intention. Methods: Search terms identified174 papers that used EEG in combination with marketing-related stimuli. Publications were excluded if they were written in a language other than English or were not published as journal articles (e.g., book chapters). The review investigated which TF effect (e.g., theta-band power) and ERP component (e.g., N400) most consistently reflected preference and purchase intention. Machine-learning prediction was also investigated, along with the use of EEG combined with physiological measures such as eye-tracking. Results: Frontal alpha asymmetry was the most reliable TF signal, where an increase in activity over the left side of the frontal lobe indexed a positive response to marketing stimuli, while an increase in activity over the right side indexed a negative response. The late positive potential, a positive amplitude increase around 600 ms after stimulus presentation, was the most reliable ERP component, reflecting the conscious emotional evaluation of marketing stimuli. However, each measure showed mixed results when related to preference and purchase behaviour. Predictive accuracy was greatly improved through machine-learning algorithms such as deep neural networks, especially when combined with eye-tracking or facial expression analyses. Discussion: This systematic review provides a novel catalogue of the most effective use of each EEG measure commonly used in neuromarketing. Exciting findings to emerge are the identification of the frontal alpha asymmetry and late positive potential as markers of preferential responses to marketing stimuli. Predictive accuracy using machine-learning algorithms achieved predictive accuracies as high as 97%, and future research should therefore focus on machine-learning prediction when using EEG measures in neuromarketing.

Keywords: EEG, ERP, neuromarketing, machine-learning, systematic review, time-frequency

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Authors: Yan Zi, Han Xiao

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Across the globe, ICTs are influencing employment both as an industry that creates jobs and as a tool that empowers disabled people to access new forms of work, in innovative and more flexible ways. The advancements in ICT and the number of apps and solutions that support persons with physical, cognitive and intellectual disabilities challenge traditional biased notions and offer a pathway out of traditional sheltered workshops. As the global leader in digital technology innovation, China is arguably a leader in the use of digital technology as a 'lever' in ending the economic and social marginalization of the disabled. This study investigates factors that influence adoption and use of employment-oriented ICT applications among disabled people in China and seeks to integrate three theoretical approaches: the technology acceptance model (TAM), the uses and gratifications (U&G) approach, and the social model of disability. To that end, the study used data from self-reported survey of 214 disabled adults who have been involved in two top-down 'Internet + employment' programs promoted by local disabled persons’ federation in Shanghai. A structural equation model employed in the study demonstrates that the use of employment-oriented ICT applications is affected by demographic factors of gender, categories of disability, education and marital status. The organizational support of local social organizations demonstrates significate effects on the motivations of disabled people. Results from the focus group interviews particularly suggested that to maximize the positive impact of ICTs on employment, there is significant need to build stakeholder capacity on how ICTs could benefits persons with disabilities.

Keywords: disabled people, ICTs, technology acceptance model, uses and gratifications, the social model of disability

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Authors: Moaine Jebara, Lionel Boillereaux, Sofiane Belhabib, Michel Havet, Alain Sarda, Pierre Mousseau, Rémi Deterre

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Energy consumption efficiency is a major concern for the material processing industry such as thermoforming process and molding. Indeed, these systems should deliver the right amount of energy at the right time to the processed material. Recent technical development, as well as the particularities of the heating system dynamics, made the Model Predictive Control (MPC) one of the best candidates for thermal control of several production processes like molding and composite thermoforming to name a few. The main principle of this technique is to use a dynamic model of the process inside the controller in real time in order to anticipate the future behavior of the process which allows the current timeslot to be optimized while taking future timeslots into account. This study presents a procedure based on a predictive control that brings balance between optimality, simplicity, and flexibility of its implementation. The development of this approach is progressive starting from the case of a single zone before its extension to the multizone and/or multisource case, taking thus into account the thermal couplings between the adjacent zones. After a quadratic formulation of the MPC criterion to ensure the thermal control, the linear expression is retained in order to reduce calculation time thanks to the use of the ARMAX linear decomposition methods. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by experiment and simulation.

Keywords: energy efficiency, linear decomposition methods, model predictive control, mold heating systems

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Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Sherif A. Abu El-Magd, Ahmed M. Sefelnasr, Ahmed M. Masoud

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Groundwater modeling is the way and tool for assessing and managing groundwater resources efficiently. The present work was carried out in the ancient Egyptian archeological site (Abydos) fromDynastyIandII.Theareaislocated about 13km west of the River Nilecourse, Upper Egypt. The main problem in this context is that the ground water level rise threatens and damages fragile carvings and paintings of the ancient buildings. The main objective of the present work is to identify the sources of the groundwater recharge in the site, further more, equally important there is to control the ground water level rise. Numerical modeling combined with field water level measurements was implemented to understand the ground water recharge sources. However, building a conceptual model was an important step in the groundwater modeling to phase to satisfy the modeling objectives. Therefore, boreholes, crosssections, and a high-resolution digital elevation model were used to construct the conceptual model. To understand the hydrological system in the site, the model was run under both steady state and transient conditions. Then, the model was calibrated agains the observation of the water level measurements. Finally, the results based on the modeling indicated that the groundwater recharge is originating from an indirect flow path mainly from the southeast. Besides, there is a hydraulic connection between the surface water and groundwater in the study site. The decision-makers and archeologyists could consider the present work to understand the behavior of groundwater recharge and water table level rise.

Keywords: numerical modeling, archeological site, groundwater recharge, egypt

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Authors: N. Dlamini, Mpumelelo G. Ndlela, Philisiwe Dlamini, Nicholus Kisyeri, Bhekizitha Sithole

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Accessing health services during the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated scarcity to routine medication. To ensure continuous accessibility to services, Eswatini launched Community Health Commodities Distribution (CHCD). Eligible Antiretroviral Therapy(ART) stable clients (VL<1,000) and patients on Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) medications were attended at community pick up points (PUP) based on distance between clients’ residence and the public health facility. Services provided includes ART and Pre-Exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) refills and NCD drug refills). The number of community PUP was 14% higher than health facility visits. Among all medications and commodities distributed between April and October 2020 at the PUP, 64% were HIV-related (HIV rapid test, HIVST, VL test, PrEP meds), and 36% were NCD related. The rapid roll out of CHCD during COVID-19 pandemic reduced the risk of COVID-19 transmission to clients as travel to health facilities was eliminated. It Additionally increased access to commodities during COVID-19-driven lockdown, decongested health facilities, integrated model of care, and increase service coverage. It was also noted that CHCD added different curative and HIV related services based on client specific needs and availability of the commodities.

Keywords: community health commodities distribution, pick up points, antiretroviral therapy, pre-exposure prophylaxis

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Authors: Ihsane Modhaffar, Kamal Gueraoui, Abouelkacem Qais, Abderrahmane Maaouni, Samir Men-La-Yakhaf, Hamid Eltourroug

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The main objective of this paper is to develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to simulate and characterize the fiber suspension in flow in rectangular cavities. The model is intended to describe the velocity profile and to predict the fiber orientation. The flow was considered to be incompressible, and behave as Newtonian fluid containing suspensions of short-fibers. The numerical model for determination of velocity profile and fiber orientation during mold-filling stage of injection molding process was solved using finite volume method. The governing equations of this problem are: the continuity, the momentum and the energy. The obtained results were compared to available experimental findings. A good agreement between the numerical results and the experimental data was achieved.

Keywords: injection, composites, short-fiber reinforced thermoplastics, fiber orientation, incompressible fluid, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 457