Search results for: intended service use pattern
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6888

Search results for: intended service use pattern

1368 Seek First to Regulate, Then to Understand: The Case for Preemptive Regulation of Robots

Authors: Catherine McWhorter

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Robotics is a fast-evolving field lacking comprehensive and harm-mitigating regulation; it also lacks critical data on how human-robot interaction (HRI) may affect human psychology. As most anthropomorphic robots are intended as substitutes for humans, this paper asserts that the commercial robotics industry should be preemptively regulated at the federal level such that robots capable of embodying a victim role in criminal scenarios (“vicbots”) are prohibited until clinical studies determine their effects on the user and society. The results of these studies should then inform more permanent legislation that strives to mitigate risks of harm without infringing upon fundamental rights or stifling innovation. This paper explores these concepts through the lens of the sex robot industry. The sexbot industry offers some of the most realistic, interactive, and customizable robots for sale today. From approximately 2010 until 2017, some sex robot producers, such as True Companion, actively promoted ‘vicbot’ culture with personalities like “Frigid Farrah” and “Young Yoko” but received significant public backlash for fetishizing rape and pedophilia. Today, “Frigid Farrah” and “Young Yoko” appear to have vanished. Sexbot producers have replaced preprogrammed vicbot personalities in favor of one generic, customizable personality. According to the manufacturer ainidoll.com, when asked, there is only one thing the user won’t be able to program the sexbot to do – “…give you drama”. The ability to customize vicbot personas is possible with today’s generic personality sexbots and may undermine the intent of some current legislative efforts. Current debate on the effects of vicbots indicates a lack of consensus. Some scholars suggest vicbots may reduce the rate of actual sex crimes, and some suggest that vicbots will, in fact, create sex criminals, while others cite their potential for rehabilitation. Vicbots may have value in some instances when prescribed by medical professionals, but the overall uncertainty and lack of data further underscore the need for preemptive regulation and clinical research. Existing literature on exposure to media violence and its effects on prosocial behavior, human aggression, and addiction may serve as launch points for specific studies into the hyperrealism of vicbots. Of course, the customization, anthropomorphism and artificial intelligence of sexbots, and therefore more mainstream robots, will continue to evolve. The existing sexbot industry offers an opportunity to preemptively regulate and to research answers to these and many more questions before this type of technology becomes even more advanced and mainstream. Robots pose complicated moral, ethical, and legal challenges, most of which are beyond the scope of this paper. By examining the possibility for custom vicbots via the sexbots industry, reviewing existing literature on regulation, media violence, and vicbot user effects, this paper strives to underscore the need for preemptive federal regulation prohibiting vicbot capabilities in robots while advocating for further research into the potential for the user and societal harm by the same.

Keywords: human-robot interaction effects, regulation, research, robots

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1367 An Odyssey to Sustainability: The Urban Archipelago of India

Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

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This study provides a snapshot of the sustainability of selected Indian cities by employing 70 indicators in four dimensions to develop an overall city sustainability index. In recent years, the concept of ‘urban sustainability’ has become prominent due to its complexity. Urban areas propel growth and at the same time poses a lot of ecological, social and infrastructural problems and risks. In case of developing countries, the high population density of and the continuous in-migration run the highest risk in natural and man-made disasters. These issues combined with the inability of policy makers in providing basic services makes the cities unsustainable. To assess whether any given policy is moving towards or against urban sustainability it is necessary to consider the relationships among its various dimensions. Hence, in recent years, while preparing the sustainability index, an integral approach involving indicators of different dimensions such as ‘economic’, ‘environmental’ and 'social' is being used. It is also important for urban planners, social analysts and other related institutions to identify and understand the relationships in this complex system. The objective of the paper is to develop a city performance index (CPI) to measure and evaluate the urban regions in terms of sustainable performances. The objectives include: i) Objective assessment of a city’s performance, ii) setting achievable goals iii) prioritise relevant indicators for improvement, iv) learning from leaders, iv) assessment of the effectiveness of programmes that results in achieving high indicator values, v) Strengthening of stakeholder participation. Using the benchmark approach, a conceptual framework is developed for evaluating 25 Indian cities. We develop City Sustainability index (CSI) in order to rank cities according to their level of sustainability. The CSI is composed of four dimensions: Economic, Environment, Social, and Institutional. Each dimension is further composed of multiple indicators: (1) Economic that considers growth, access to electricity, and telephone availability; (2) environmental that includes waste water treatment, carbon emissions, (3) social that includes, equity, infant mortality, and 4) institutional that includes, voting share of population, urban regeneration policies. The CSI, consisting of four dimensions disaggregate into 12 categories and ultimately into 70 indicators. The data are obtained from public and non-governmental organizations, and also from city officials and experts. By ranking a sample of diverse cities on a set of specific dimensions the study can serve as a baseline of current conditions and a marker for referencing future results. The benchmarks and indices presented in the study provide a unique resource for the government and the city authorities to learn about the positive and negative attributes of a city and prepare plans for a sustainable urban development. As a result of our conceptual framework, the set of criteria we suggest is somewhat different to any already in the literature. The scope of our analysis is intended to be broad. Although illustrated with specific examples, it should be apparent that the principles identified are relevant to any monitoring that is used to inform decisions involving decision variables. These indicators are policy-relevant and, hence they are useful tool for decision-makers and researchers.

Keywords: benchmark, city, indicator, performance, sustainability

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1366 A Measurement and Motor Control System for Free Throw Shots in Basketball Using Gyroscope Sensor

Authors: Niloofar Zebarjad

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This research aims at finding a tool to provide basketball players with real-time audio feedback on their shooting form in free throw shots. Free throws played a pivotal role in taking the lead in fierce competitions. The major problem in performing an accurate free throw seems to be improper training. Since the arm movement during the free throw shot is complex, the coach or the athlete might miss the movement details during practice. Hence, there is a necessity to create a system that measures arm movements' critical characteristics and control for improper kinematics. The proposed setup in this study quantifies arm kinematics and provides real-time feedback as an audio signal consisting of a gyroscope sensor. Spatial shoulder angle data are transmitted in a mobile application in real-time and can be saved and processed for statistical and analysis purposes. The proposed system is easy to use, inexpensive, portable, and real-time applicable. Objectives: This research aims to modify and control the free throw using audio feedback and determine if and to what extent the new setup reduces errors in arm formations during throws and finally assesses the successful throw rate. Methods: One group of elite basketball athletes and two novice athletes (control and study group) participated in this study. Each group contains 5 participants being studied in three separate sessions over a week. Results: Empirical results showed enhancements in the free throw shooting style, shot pocket (SP), and locked position (LP). The mean values of shoulder angle were controlled on 25° and 45° for SP and LP, respectively, recommended by valid FIBA references. Conclusion: Throughout the experiments, the system helped correct and control the shoulder angles toward the targeted pattern of shot pocket (SP) and locked position (LP). According to the desired results for arm motion, adding another sensor to measure and control the elbow angle is recommended.

Keywords: audio-feedback, basketball, free-throw, locked-position, motor-control, shot-pocket

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1365 Optimizing Bridge Deck Construction: A deep Neural Network Approach for Limiting Exterior Grider Rotation

Authors: Li Hui, Riyadh Hindi

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In the United States, bridge construction often employs overhang brackets to support the deck overhang, the weight of fresh concrete, and loads from construction equipment. This approach, however, can lead to significant torsional moments on the exterior girders, potentially causing excessive girder rotation. Such rotations can result in various safety and maintenance issues, including thinning of the deck, reduced concrete cover, and cracking during service. Traditionally, these issues are addressed by installing temporary lateral bracing systems and conducting comprehensive torsional analysis through detailed finite element analysis for the construction of bridge deck overhang. However, this process is often intricate and time-intensive, with the spacing between temporary lateral bracing systems usually relying on the field engineers’ expertise. In this study, a deep neural network model is introduced to limit exterior girder rotation during bridge deck construction. The model predicts the optimal spacing between temporary bracing systems. To train this model, over 10,000 finite element models were generated in SAP2000, incorporating varying parameters such as girder dimensions, span length, and types and spacing of lateral bracing systems. The findings demonstrate that the deep neural network provides an effective and efficient alternative for limiting the exterior girder rotation for bridge deck construction. By reducing dependence on extensive finite element analyses, this approach stands out as a significant advancement in improving safety and maintenance effectiveness in the construction of bridge decks.

Keywords: bridge deck construction, exterior girder rotation, deep learning, finite element analysis

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1364 Dental Education in Brazil: A Systematic Literature Review

Authors: Fabiane Alves Farias Guimarães, Rodrigo Otávio Moretti-Pires, Ana Lúcia Schaefer Ferreira de Mello

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Introduction: Considering the last changes in Brazilian Health and Higher Educational Systems, the production of scientific knowledge regarding dental education and training has been increasing. The National Curriculum Guidelines for undergraduate courses in Dentistry established in 2002 the principles and procedures to perform a more generalist dental professional profile. Objectives: To perform a systematic review of the Brazilian scientific literature about dental education and training. Methods: The systematic review was conducted considering the Lilacs - Latin American Literature in Health Sciences and SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online data bases, using the combination of key words dentistry, education, teaching or training. It was select original research articles, published between 2010 and 2013, in Portuguese. Results: Based on the selection criteria, it was found 23 articles. In order to organize the outcomes, the analysis was separated in three themes: Ethical aspects of education (3 articles), integrating dental service with training (10 articles) and Dental education and the Brazilian curriculum guidelines (10 articles). Most of the studies were published between 2011 and 2012 (35% each) and were held in public universities. The studied populations included dental students, teachers, universities directors, health managers and dentists. The qualitative methodological approach was predominant. Conclusion: It was possible to identify a transience time in Brazilian undergraduate courses in Dentistry after curricular changes. The produced literature shows some advances, as the incorporation of ethical values on dental education and the inclusion of new practices environments for students by integrating education and training in diversified dental services scenarios.

Keywords: Teaching, Dental Students, Human resources in dentistry

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1363 The Role of Social Capital and Dynamic Capabilities in a Circular Economy: Evidence from German Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Authors: Antonia Hoffmann, Andrea Stübner

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Resource scarcity and rising material prices are forcing companies to rethink their business models. The conventional linear system of economic growth and rising social needs further exacerbates the problem of resource scarcity. Therefore, it is necessary to separate economic growth from resource consumption. This can be achieved through the circular economy (CE), which focuses on sustainable product life cycles. However, companies face challenges in implementing CE into their businesses. Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly affected by these problems, as they have a limited resource base. Collaboration and social interaction between different actors can help to overcome these obstacles. Based on a self-generated sample of 1,023 German small and medium-sized enterprises, we use a questionnaire to investigate the influence of social capital and its three dimensions - structural, relational, and cognitive capital - on the implementation of CE and the mediating effect of dynamic capabilities in explaining these relationships. Using regression analyses and structural equation modeling, we find that social capital is positively associated with CE implementation and dynamic capabilities partially mediate this relationship. Interestingly, our findings suggest that not all social capital dimensions are equally important for CE implementation. We theoretically and empirically explore the network forms of social capital and extend the CE literature by suggesting that dynamic capabilities help organizations leverage social capital to drive the implementation of CE practices. The findings of this study allow us to suggest several implications for managers and institutions. From a practical perspective, our study contributes to building circular production and service capabilities in small and medium-sized enterprises. Various CE activities can transform products and services to contribute to a better and more responsible world.

Keywords: circular economy, dynamic capabilities, SMEs, social capital

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1362 An Estimation of Rice Output Supply Response in Sierra Leone: A Nerlovian Model Approach

Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac

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Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.

Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, trend equations

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1361 Hub Traveler Guidance Signage Evaluation via Panoramic Visualization Using Entropy Weight Method and TOPSIS

Authors: Si-yang Zhang, Chi Zhao

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Comprehensive transportation hubs are important nodes of the transportation network, and their internal signage the functions as guidance and distribution assistance, which directly affects the operational efficiency of traffic in and around the hubs. Reasonably installed signage effectively attracts the visual focus of travelers and improves wayfinding efficiency. Among the elements of signage, the visual guidance effect is the key factor affecting the information conveyance, whom should be evaluated during design and optimization process. However, existing evaluation methods mostly focus on the layout, and are not able to fully understand if signage caters travelers’ need. This study conducted field investigations and developed panoramic videos for multiple transportation hubs in China, and designed survey accordingly. Human subjects are recruited to watch panoramic videos via virtual reality (VR) and respond to the surveys. In this paper, Pudong Airport and Xi'an North Railway Station were studied and compared as examples due to their high traveler volume and relatively well-developed traveler service systems. Visual attention was captured by eye tracker and subjective satisfaction ratings were collected through surveys. Entropy Weight Method (EWM) was utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of signage elements and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was used to further rank the importance of the elements. The results show that the degree of visual attention of travelers significantly affects the evaluation results of guidance signage. Key factors affecting visual attention include accurate legibility, obstruction and defacement rates, informativeness, and whether signage is set up in a hierarchical manner.

Keywords: traveler guidance signage, panoramic video, visual attention, entropy weight method, TOPSIS

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1360 Satellite Based Assessment of Urban Heat Island Effects on Major Cities of Pakistan

Authors: Saad Bin Ismail, Muhammad Ateeq Qureshi, Rao Muhammad Zahid Khalil

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In the last few decades, urbanization worldwide has been sprawled manifold, which is denunciated in the growth of urban infrastructure and transportation. Urban Heat Island (UHI) can induce deterioration of the living environment, disabilities, and rises in energy usages. In this study, the prevalence/presence of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect in major cities of Pakistan, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar has been investigated. Landsat and SPOT satellite images were acquired for the assessment of urban sprawl. MODIS Land Surface Temperature product MOD11A2 was acquired between 1000-1200 hours (local time) for assessment of urban heat island. The results of urban sprawl informed that the extent of Islamabad and Rawalpindi urban area increased from 240 km2 to 624 km2 between 2000 and 2016, accounted 24 km2 per year, Lahore 29 km2, accounted 1.6 km2 per year, Karachi 261 km2, accounted for 16 km2/ per year, Peshawar 63 km2, accounted 4 km2/per year, and Quetta 76 km2/per year, accounted 5 km2/per year approximately. The average Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) magnitude is observed at a scale of 0.63 ᵒC for Islamabad and Rawalpindi, 1.25 ᵒC for Lahore, and 1.16 ᵒC for Karachi, which is 0.89 ᵒC for Quetta, and 1.08 ᵒC for Peshawar from 2000 to 2016. The pixel-based maximum SUHI intensity reaches up to about 11.40 ᵒC for Islamabad and Rawalpindi, 15.66 ᵒC for Lahore, 11.20 ᵒC for Karachi, 14.61 ᵒC for Quetta, and 15.22 ᵒC for Peshawar from the baseline of zero degrees Centigrade (ᵒC). The overall trend of SUHI in planned cities (e.g., Islamabad) is not found to increase significantly. Spatial and temporal patterns of SUHI for selected cities reveal heterogeneity and a unique pattern for each city. It is well recognized that SUHI intensity is modulated by land use/land cover patterns (due to their different surface properties and cooling rates), meteorological conditions, and anthropogenic activities. The study concluded that the selected cities (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar) are examples where dense urban pockets observed about 15 ᵒC warmer than a nearby rural area.

Keywords: urban heat island , surface urban heat island , urbanization, anthropogenic source

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1359 Retrospective Statistical Study on the Evolution of Brucellosis during the Last Decade (2011-2021) in Medea, Algeria

Authors: Mammar Khames, Mustapha Oumouna

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Brucellosis is one of the most common zoonoses in the world. It represents a serious threat to human health; the existence of brucellosis in Algeria dates back to the beginning of the 19th century. Its transmission to humans is through coccobacilli of the genus Brucella following direct contact with contaminated animals or indirectly through the consumption of their unpasteurized dairy products. The present investigation covers a retrospective study on human brucellosis in the district of Medea over a period from 2011 to 2021 at the level of two public health establishments. In the first place, it is at the level of the Directorate of Public Health and in the infectious department level at Medea Hospital, and at the level of the directorate of agricultural services in the third place. The results showed that during these eleven years of study, 795 cases were collected from the department of health and population, and 141 cases were collected from the infectious department of the district of Medea. A total of 56 cases of bovine brucellosis were obtained from the directorate of agricultural services of the district of Medea. Human brucellosis affects all age groups with different percentages, but the rate has been higher in the 20-44 age group, with a predominance of men. However, the geographic distribution map of the cases shows that the western part of the district was the most affected. A cohort of 141 cases was hospitalized at the infectious service level of Medea Hospital. They were 89 men and 52 women. The most common age reached is [20-44] years. The majority were of rural origin. Two serological reactions were performed for diagnosis: the buffered antigen test and Wright's serodiagnosis. Bovine brucellosis affects all age groups with different percentages, but the rate was higher in the 2-to-4-year age group, with a predominance of females. From these data, we conclude that brucellosis has a strong spread in the region studied.

Keywords: human brucellosis, serology, Medea, Algeria

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1358 Analysis of Pangasinan State University: Bayambang Students’ Concerns Through Social Media Analytics and Latent Dirichlet Allocation Topic Modelling Approach

Authors: Matthew John F. Sino Cruz, Sarah Jane M. Ferrer, Janice C. Francisco

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COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 114 countries all over the world since it was considered a global health concern in 2020. Different sectors, including education, have shifted to remote/distant setups to follow the guidelines set to prevent the spread of the disease. One of the higher education institutes which shifted to remote setup is the Pangasinan State University (PSU). In order to continue providing quality instructions to the students, PSU designed Flexible Learning Model to still provide services to its stakeholders amidst the pandemic. The model covers the redesigning of delivering instructions in remote setup and the technology needed to support these adjustments. The primary goal of this study is to determine the insights of the PSU – Bayambang students towards the remote setup implemented during the pandemic and how they perceived the initiatives employed in relation to their experiences in flexible learning. In this study, the topic modelling approach was implemented using Latent Dirichlet Allocation. The dataset used in the study. The results show that the most common concern of the students includes time and resource management, poor internet connection issues, and difficulty coping with the flexible learning modality. Furthermore, the findings of the study can be used as one of the bases for the administration to review and improve the policies and initiatives implemented during the pandemic in relation to remote service delivery. In addition, further studies can be conducted to determine the overall sentiment of the other stakeholders in the policies implemented at the University.

Keywords: COVID-19, topic modelling, students’ sentiment, flexible learning, Latent Dirichlet allocation

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1357 The Persistence of Abnormal Return on Assets: An Exploratory Analysis of the Differences between Industries and Differences between Firms by Country and Sector

Authors: José Luis Gallizo, Pilar Gargallo, Ramon Saladrigues, Manuel Salvador

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This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural and a transitory component, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This breakdown enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be more accurately evaluated by country and sector. Furthermore, Bayesian approach allows for testing different hypotheses about the homogeneity of the behaviour of the above components with respect to the sector and the country where the firm develops its activity. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the firm specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for around 81% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 34%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects depends also on sector and country analysed have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 7-8% with this degree of persistence being very similar for most of sectors and countries analysed.

Keywords: dynamic models, Bayesian inference, MCMC, abnormal returns, persistence of profits, return on assets

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1356 An Ethno-Scientific Approach for Restoration of South Indian Heritage Rice Varieties

Authors: A. Sathya, C. Manojkumar, D. Visithra

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The South Indian peninsula has rich diversity of both heritage and conventional rice varieties. With the prime focus set on high yield and increased productivity, a number of traditional/heritage rice varieties have dwindled into the forgotten past. At present, in the face of climate change, the hybrids and conventional varieties struggle for sustainable yield. The need of copious irrigation and high nutrient inputs for the hybrids and conventional varieties have cornered the farming and research community to resort to heritage rice varieties for their sturdy survival capability. An ethno-scientific effort has been taken in the Cauvery delta tracts of South India to restore these traditional/heritage rice varieties. A closer field level performance evaluation under organic condition has been undertaken for 10 heritage rice varieties. The morpho-agronomic characterization across vegetative and reproductive stages have revealed a pattern of variation in duration, plant height, number of tillers, productive tillers, etc. The shortest duration was recorded for a variety with the vernacular name of ‘Arubadaam kuruvai’. A traditional rice variety called ‘Maapillai samba’ is claimed to impart instant energy. The supernatant water of the overnight soaked cooked rice of Maapillai samba is a source of instant energy. The physico-chemical analysis of this variety is being explored for its instant nutritional boosting ability. Wide spectrum of nutritional characters including palatability and marketability preferences has also been analyzed for all these 10 heritage rice varieties. A ‘Farmer’s harvest day festival’ was organized, providing opportunity for the ‘Cauvery delta farmers’ to identify the special features and exchange their views on these standing golden ripe paddy varieties directly. The airing of their ethnic knowledge pooled with interesting scientific investigations of these 10 rich heritage rice varieties of South India undertaken will be elaborately discussed enlightening the perspectives on the pathway of resurrection and restoration of this heritage of the past.

Keywords: biodiversity, conservation, heritage, rice, traditional, varieties

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1355 Morphological Investigation of Sprawling Along Emerging Peri-Urban Transit Corridor of Mowe-Ibafo Axis of the Lagos Megacity Region

Authors: Folayele Oluyemi Akindeju, Tobi Joseph Ajoro

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The city as a complex system exhibiting chaotic behaviour is in a state of constant change, in response to prevailing social, economic, environmental and technological factors. Without adequate investigation and control mechanisms to tame the sporadic nature of growth in most urban areas of cities in developing regions, organic sprawling visibly manifests with its attendant problems, most especially at peri-urban areas. The Lagos Megacity region in southwest Nigeria, as one of the largest megacities in the world contends with the challenges of sprawling at the peri-urban areas especially along emerging transit corridors. Due to the seemingly unpredictable nature of this growth, this paper attempts a morphological investigation into the growth of peri-urban settlements along the Mowe-Ibafo transit corridor of the Megacity region over a temporal space of three decades (1984-2014). This study adopts the application of the Fractal Analysis and Regression Analysis methods through the correlation of population density and fractal dimension values to establish the pattern and nature of growth, due to the inadequacies of conventional methods of urban analysis which cannot deal with the unpredictability of such complex urban forms as the peri-urban areas. It was deduced that the dynamic urban expansion in the last three decades resulted in about 74.2% urban change rate between 1984 and 2000 and 63.4% urban change rate between 2000 and 2014. With the R2 value between the fractal dimension and population density been 1, the regression model indicates a positive correlation between Fractal Dimension (D) and Population Density (pop/km2), where the increase in the population density from 5740 pop/km2 to 8060 pop/km2 and later decrease to 7580 pop/km2 leads to an increase in the fractal dimension of urban growth from 1.451 in 1984 to 1.853 in 2014. This, therefore, justifies the ability to predict and determine the nature and direction of growth of complex entities and is sufficient to substantially suggest the need for adequate policy framework towards sustainable urban planning and infrastructural provision in the Peri-urban areas.

Keywords: fractal analysis, Lagos Megacity, peri-urban, sprawling, urban morphology

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1354 Women in Urban Agriculture: Institutional Challenges, COVID-19 and the War in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Authors: Meseret Gebeyehu Yehuala

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Women represent the majority of urban farmers engaged in vegetable and fruit production in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. We examine urban agriculture in Bahir Dar city in the context of disruptions caused by the civil war and COVID-19. The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework serves as a conceptual frame to explore the vulnerability context, the structural and institutional challenges faced by women, and how this impacts their livelihoods. A total of 25 urban women farmers and 6 key informants were involved in the study through explorative and structured interviews conducted in 2021. Observations and informal conversations during repeated visits provided deeper insights. In addition, key informants employed in civil service institutions and experts were interviewed. Data were analysed by applying qualitative content analysis by using Atlas tia software. Women report that they experience a lack of access to land, insecurity of tenure, irregular technical support and input provision by agricultural extension services, and lack of access to credit and formal marketplaces. The COVID-19 pandemic restrictions aggravated this situation by delaying agricultural extension offices’ provision of necessary inputs and disrupting food handling and storage leading to the loss of perishable products. Bombing in relation to the civil war has destroyed harvests and left women in fear of returning to their fields. Women stated that vegetable and fruit production could contribute to their incomes, household food supplies, and more diversified diets. However, the city municipal office has, so far, not committed to supporting urban agriculture as a livelihood strategy.

Keywords: urban agriculture, institutional challenges, Bahir Dar, sustainable livelihood framework

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1353 Software-Defined Networking: A New Approach to Fifth Generation Networks: Security Issues and Challenges Ahead

Authors: Behrooz Daneshmand

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Software Defined Networking (SDN) is designed to meet the future needs of 5G mobile networks. The SDN architecture offers a new solution that involves separating the control plane from the data plane, which is usually paired together. Network functions traditionally performed on specific hardware can now be abstracted and virtualized on any device, and a centralized software-based administration approach is based on a central controller, facilitating the development of modern applications and services. These plan standards clear the way for a more adaptable, speedier, and more energetic network beneath computer program control compared with a conventional network. We accept SDN gives modern inquire about openings to security, and it can significantly affect network security research in numerous diverse ways. Subsequently, the SDN architecture engages systems to effectively screen activity and analyze threats to facilitate security approach modification and security benefit insertion. The segregation of the data planes and control and, be that as it may, opens security challenges, such as man-in-the-middle attacks (MIMA), denial of service (DoS) attacks, and immersion attacks. In this paper, we analyze security threats to each layer of SDN - application layer - southbound interfaces/northbound interfaces - controller layer and data layer. From a security point of see, the components that make up the SDN architecture have a few vulnerabilities, which may be abused by aggressors to perform noxious activities and hence influence the network and its administrations. Software-defined network assaults are shockingly a reality these days. In a nutshell, this paper highlights architectural weaknesses and develops attack vectors at each layer, which leads to conclusions about further progress in identifying the consequences of attacks and proposing mitigation strategies.

Keywords: software-defined networking, security, SDN, 5G/IMT-2020

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1352 Application of Heritage Clay Roof Tiles in Malaysia’s Government Buildings: Conservation Challenges

Authors: Mohd Sabere Sulaiman, Masyitah Abd Aziz, Norsiah Hassan, Jamilah Halina Abdul Halim, Mohd Saipul Asrafi Haron

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The use of clay roof tiles was spread out through Asia and Europe, including Malaysia, since the early 17th Century. Most of the common type of clay roof tiles are used in a flat and rectangular shape, measurement, styles, and characteristics through each tradition and interest, including responsive to the climate. Various types of heritage clay roof tiles were used in Malaysia’s Government Buildings dated 1865, 1919, 1936, and so forth, which mostly were imported from India, France, and Italy. Until now, these heritage clay roof tiles are still found throughout Malaysia, including the ‘Interlocking’ clay roof tile type. This study is to investigate and overview the existence of heritage clay roof tiles used in Malaysia; the ‘interlocking’ type with ‘lip’ and ‘hooks’, through literature reviews as desktop study besides carried out a preliminary observation on various sites and interviews. From the literatures, the last production and used of the local heritage clay roof tiles in Malaysia dated in mid 1900s in Batu Arang, Selangor. The brick factory was abandoned since early 2000s. Although the modern ‘Interlocking’ type were produced to duplicate its form, pattern, and size of the original one, they still facing the problem to blend and merged, which end up dismantling the original version, or replacing one to one condition and even replaced overall with the modern materials. This is quite contradicting with the basic principles of building conservation and had become a challenge. Initial findings from the preliminary observation on site in various state in Malaysia shows some evidence that the heritage clay roof tiles are still intact and been used. Some of them might change to modern roof materials such as metal deck, probably due to easy maintenance and cheaper. Also, some are still struggling to maintain and retain its looks and authenticity of the roof while facing the increasing of material cost. Those improper alteration and changes made is due to lack of knowledge among the owner and end user. Various aspect needs to be considered in order to sustain its usage and its original looks by looking at the proper maintenance aspects of the heritage clay roof tiles to prolong the building life for future generation preferences.

Keywords: challenges, clay, interlocking, maintenance

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1351 A Multicriteria Analysis of Energy Poverty Index: A Case Study of Non-interconnected Zones in Colombia

Authors: Angelica Gonzalez O, Leonardo Rivera Cadavid, Diego Fernando Manotas

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Energy poverty considers a population that does not have access to modern energy service. In particular, an area of a country that is not connected to the national electricity grid is known as a Non-Interconnected Zone (NIZ). Access to electricity has a significant impact on the welfare and development opportunities of the population. Different studies have shown that most health problems have an empirical cause and effect relationship with multidimensional energy poverty. Likewise, research has been carried out to review the consequences of not having access to electricity, and its results have concluded a statistically significant relationship between energy poverty and sources of drinking water, access to clean water, risks of mosquito bites, obesity, sterilization, marital status, occupation, and residence. Therefore, extensive research has been conducted in the construction of an energy poverty measure based on an index. Some of these studies introduce a Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI), Compose Energy Poverty Index (CEPI), Low Income High Costs indicator (LIHC), among others. For this purpose, this study analyzes the energy poverty index using a multicriteria analysis determining the set of feasible alternatives - for which Colombia's ZNI will be used as a case study - to be considered in the problem and the set of relevant criteria in the characterization of the ZNI, from which the prioritization is obtained to determine the level of adjustment of each alternative with respect to the performance in each criterion. Additionally, this study considers the installation of Micro-Grids (MG). This is considered a straightforward solution to this problem because an MG is a local electrical grid, able to operate in grid-connected and island mode. Drawing on those insights, this study compares an energy poverty index considering an MG installation and calculates the impacts of different criterias in an energy poverty index in NIZ.

Keywords: multicirteria, energy poverty, rural, microgrids, non-interconnect zones

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1350 Early Onset Neonatal Sepsis Pathogens in Malaysian Hospitals: Determining Empiric Antibiotic

Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

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Treatment of suspected early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is essential. However, information regarding EONS pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The inclusion criteria were neonates with blood culture taken prior to empiric antibiotics administration and within 72 hours of life. Of the study group, a total of 734 (82%) cases had documented blood culture that met the inclusion criteria. Proven EONS (as confirmed by positive blood culture) was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). In addition, other common gram positive organism isolated were Coagulase negative staphylococci (7) followed by Bacillus sp. (5) and Streptococcus pneumonia (2), and only one case isolated with GBS, Streptococcus spp. and Enterococcus sp. Meanwhile, only five cases of gram negative organisms [Stenotropomonas (xantho) maltophi (1), Haemophilus influenza (1), Spingomonas paucimobilis (1), Enterobacter gergoviae (1) and E. coli (1)] were isolated. A total of 286 (39%) cases were exposed to intrapartum antibiotics and of those, 157 (21.4%) were administered prior to delivery. All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male, surfactant, caesarean delivery and prolonged rapture of membrane >18hours were a possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance. However, by analyzing isolated pathogens it can be used as treatment guidance in managing suspected EONS.

Keywords: early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative

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1349 Geometric-Morphometric Analysis of Head, Pronotum and Elytra of Brontispa Longissima Gestro in Selected Provinces of the Philippines

Authors: Ana Marie T. Acevedo

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This study was conducted to describe variations in the shapes of the elytra, head and pronotum of populations of adult Brontispa longissima (Gestro) infesting coconut farms from selected areas in the Philippines using Cluster Analysis, Relative Warp Analysis coupled with box plot and histograms and Procustean analysis. The data used in this study included shape residuals captured using the method of landmark based geometric morphometrics. Results: The results of the cluster analyses based on the average shapes of the elytra, head and pronotum shows no consistent pattern of similarity between and among five populations of B. longissima. When localized variations using Relative Warp Analysis coupled with box plot and histograms was done, the findings revealed that RWA was only successful in summarizing variations using two relative warps in the shape of the elytra where the first two warps contained 86.29% of the variations of the female and 85.48% for the males. For the head and pronotum, the first two relative warps captured less than 50% of the overall variation. Looking at the shapes of the frequency histograms, all were found to follow a unimodal distribution. The box plots reveal no consistent results. Among the three characters studied only the elytra were more robust and reliable compared to head and pronotum and then Tandag differ from the rest of the other over-lapping populations. On the other hand, Procustean Analyses revealed that elytra were more spread in the posterior region both in male and female. The coordinates in head and pronotum were evenly distributed. In the overlapping consensus configurations show that variability was exaggerated in the right side of the elytra and the posterior parts of the head and pronotum. Results also showed expansion among females while compression among males in elytra. For males, expansion are localized in the posterior part of the elytra, For the head, results showed asymmetry in the distribution of expansion areas where expansion are observed in the right postero-lateral aspect of the female head. Conclusion: The overall results may imply that they might belong to one operational taxonomic unit or ecotype or biotype. Geography might not be the factor responsible for the differentiation of the populations of B. longissima.

Keywords: cluster analysis, relative warp analysis, procrustean analysis, environmental parameters

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1348 Objective-Based System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast the Number of Health Professionals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai

Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

Abstract:

Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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1347 Lexical Based Method for Opinion Detection on Tripadvisor Collection

Authors: Faiza Belbachir, Thibault Schienhinski

Abstract:

The massive development of online social networks allows users to post and share their opinions on various topics. With this huge volume of opinion, it is interesting to extract and interpret these information for different domains, e.g., product and service benchmarking, politic, system of recommendation. This is why opinion detection is one of the most important research tasks. It consists on differentiating between opinion data and factual data. The difficulty of this task is to determine an approach which returns opinionated document. Generally, there are two approaches used for opinion detection i.e. Lexical based approaches and Machine Learning based approaches. In Lexical based approaches, a dictionary of sentimental words is used, words are associated with weights. The opinion score of document is derived by the occurrence of words from this dictionary. In Machine learning approaches, usually a classifier is trained using a set of annotated document containing sentiment, and features such as n-grams of words, part-of-speech tags, and logical forms. Majority of these works are based on documents text to determine opinion score but dont take into account if these texts are really correct. Thus, it is interesting to exploit other information to improve opinion detection. In our work, we will develop a new way to consider the opinion score. We introduce the notion of trust score. We determine opinionated documents but also if these opinions are really trustable information in relation with topics. For that we use lexical SentiWordNet to calculate opinion and trust scores, we compute different features about users like (numbers of their comments, numbers of their useful comments, Average useful review). After that, we combine opinion score and trust score to obtain a final score. We applied our method to detect trust opinions in TRIPADVISOR collection. Our experimental results report that the combination between opinion score and trust score improves opinion detection.

Keywords: Tripadvisor, opinion detection, SentiWordNet, trust score

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1346 Utilization and Proximate Composition of Nile Tilapia, Common Carp and African Mudfish Polycultured in Fertilized Ponds

Authors: I. A. Yola

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Impact of poultry dropping, cow dung and rumen content on utilization and proximate composition of Oreochromis niliticus, Clarias gariepinus and Cyprinus capio in a polyculture system were studied. The research was conducted over a period of 52 weeks. Poultry droppings (PD), cow dung (CD) and rumen content (RC) were applied at three levels 30g,60g and 120g/m2/week, 25g,50g and 100g/m2/week and 22g, 44g and 88g/m2/week treatment, respectively. The control only conventional feed with 40% CP without manure application was used. Physicochemical and biological properties measured were higher in manure pond than control. The difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05) between and within treatments with exception of temperature with a combined mean of 27.900C. The water was consistently alkaline with mean values for pH of 6.61, transparency 22.6cm, conductivity 35.00µhos/cm, dissolved oxygen 4.6 mg/l, biological oxygen demand 2.8mg/l, nitrate and phosphates 0.9mg/l and 0.35mg/l, respectively. The three fish species increase in weight with increased manure rate, with a higher value in PD treatment on C. capio record 340g, O. niloticus weighed 310g and C. gariepinus 280g over the experimental period. Fishes fed supplementary diet (control) grew bigger with highest value on C. capio (685g) O. niloticus (620g) and then C. gariepinus (526g). The differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The result of whole body proximate analysis indicated that various manures and rates had an irregular pattern on the protein and ash gain per 100g of fish body weight gain. The combined means for whole fish carcass protein, lipids, moisture, ash and gross energy were 11.84, 2.43, 74.63, 3.00 and 109.9 respectively. The notable exceptions were significant (p < 0.05) increases in body fat and gross energy gains in all fish species accompanied by decreases in percentages of moisture as manure rates increased. Survival percentage decreases from 80% to 70%. It is recommended to use poultry dropping as manure/feeds at the rate of 120kg/ha/week for good performances in polyculture.

Keywords: organic manure, Nile tilapia, African mud fish, common carp, proximate composition

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1345 A Semi-supervised Classification Approach for Trend Following Investment Strategy

Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

Abstract:

Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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1344 Plastic Deformation Behavior of a Pre-Bored Pile Filler Material Due to Lateral Cyclic Loading in Sandy Soil

Authors: A. Y. Purnama, N. Yasufuku

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The bridge structure is a building that has to be maintained, especially for the elastomeric bearing. The girder of the bridge needs to be lifted upward to maintain this elastomeric bearing, that needs high cost. Nowadays, integral abutment bridges are becoming popular. The integral abutment bridge is less costly because the elastomeric bearings are eliminated, which reduces the construction cost and maintenance costs. However, when this elastomeric bearing removed, the girder movement due to environmental thermal forces directly support by pile foundation, and it needs to be considered in the design. In case of pile foundation in a stiff soil, in the top area of the pile cannot move freely due to the fixed condition by soil stiffness. Pre-bored pile system can be used to increase the flexibility of pile foundation using a pre-bored hole that filled with elastic materials, but the behavior of soil-pile interaction and soil response due to this system is still rarely explained. In this paper, an experimental study using small-scale laboratory model test conducted in a half size model. Single flexible pile model embedded in sandy soil with the pre-bored ring, which filled with the filler material. The testing box made from an acrylic glass panel as observation area of the pile shaft to monitor the displacement of the pile during the lateral loading. The failure behavior of the soil inside the pre-bored ring and around the pile shaft was investigated to determine the point of pile rotation and the movement of this point due to the pre-bored ring system along the pile shaft. Digital images were used to capture the deformations of the soil and pile foundation during the loading from the acrylic glass on the side of the testing box. The results were presented in the form of lateral load resistance charts against the pile shaft displacement. The failure pattern result also established due to the cyclic lateral loading. The movement of the rotational point was measured due to the pre-bored system filled with appropriate filler material. Based on the findings, design considerations for pre-bored pile system due to cyclic lateral loading can be introduced.

Keywords: failure behavior, pre-bored pile system, cyclic lateral loading, sandy soil

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1343 Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin in Alleviating Pain Syndrome in Stroke Patients with Upper Limb Spasticity

Authors: Akulov M. A., Zaharov V. O., Jurishhev P. E., Tomskij A. A.

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Introduction: Spasticity is a severe consequence of stroke, leading to profound disability, decreased quality of life and decrease of rehabilitation efficacy [4]. Spasticity is often associated with pain syndrome, arising from joint damage of paretic limbs (postural arthropathy) or painful spasm of paretic limb muscles. It is generally accepted that injection of botulinum toxin into a cramped muscle leads to decrease of muscle tone and improves motion range in paretic limb, which is accompanied by pain alleviation. Study aim: To evaluate the change in pain syndrome intensity after incections of botulinum toxin A (Xeomin) in stroke patients with upper limb spasticity. Patients and methods. 21 patients aged 47-74 years were evaluated. Inclusion criteria were: acute stroke 4-7 months before the inclusion into the study, leading to spasticity of wrist and/or finger flexors, elbow flexor or forearm pronator, associated with severe pain syndrome. Patients received Xeomin as monotherapy 90-300 U, according to spasticity pattern. Efficacy evaluation was performed using Ashworth scale, disability assessment scale (DAS), caregiver burden scale and global treatment benefit assessment on weeks 2, 4, 8 and 12. Efficacy criterion was the decrease of pain syndrome by week 4 on PQLS and VAS. Results: The study revealed a significant improvement of measured indices after 4 weeks of treatment, which persisted until the 12 week of treatment. Xeomin is effective in reducing muscle tone of flexors of wrist, fingers and elbow, forearm pronators. By the 4th week of treatment we observed a significant improvement on DAS (р < 0,05), Ashworth scale (1-2 points) in all patients (р < 0,05), caregiver burden scale (р < 0,05). A significant decrease of pain syndrome by the 4th week of treatment on PQLS (р < 0,05) и VAS (р < 0,05) was observed. No adverse effect were registered. Conclusion: Xeomin is an effective treatment of pain syndrome in postural upper limb spasticity after stroke. Xeomin treatment leads to a significant improvement on PQLS and VAS.

Keywords: botulinum toxin, pain syndrome, spasticity, stroke

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1342 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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1341 Friction and Wear, Including Mechanisms, Modeling,Characterization, Measurement and Testing (Bangladesh Case)

Authors: Gor Muradyan

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The paper is about friction and wear, including mechanisms, modeling, characterization, measurement and testing case in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is a country under development, A lot of people live here, approximately 145 million. The territory of this country is very small. Therefore buildings are very close to each other. As the pipe lines are very old, and people get almost dirty water, there are a lot of ongoing projects under ADB. In those projects the contractors using HDD machines (Horizontal Directional Drilling ) and grundoburst. These machines are working underground. As ground in Bangladesh is very sludge, machine can't work relevant because of big friction in the soil. When drilling works are finished machine is pulling the pipe underground. Very often the pulling of the pipes becomes very complicated because of the friction. Therefore long section of the pipe laying can’t be done because of a big friction. In that case, additional problems rise, as well as additional work must be done. As we mentioned above it is not possible to do big section of the pipe laying because of big friction in the soil, Because of this it is coming out that contractors must do more joints, more pressure test. It is always connected with additional expenditure and losing time. This machine can pull in 75 mm to 500 mm pipes connected with the soil condition. Length is possible till 500m related how much friction it will had on the puller. As less as much it can pull. Another machine grundoburst is not working at this soil condition at all. The machine is working with air compressor. This machine are using for the smaller diameter pipes, 20 mm to 63 mm. Most of the cases these machines are being used for the installing of the house connection pipes, for making service connection. To make a friction less contractors using bigger pulling had then the pipe. It is taking down the friction, But the problem of this machine is that it can't work at sludge. Because of mentioned reasons the friction has a big mining during this kind of works. There are a lot of ways to reduce the friction. In this paper we'll introduce the ways that we have researched during our practice in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, friction and wear, HDD machines, reducing friction

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1340 Knowledge and Use of Computer Application Packages by Office Managers/Secretaries in Higher Institutions in Ogun State Nigeria: Implication on Performance Enhancement

Authors: Charlotte Bose Iro-Idoro, Adebisi Folake Osore, Tajudeen Adisa Jimoh

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All changes in the office environment were and are still driven by advances in technology. The impact of computers on office work has resulted in numerous changes in office activities, procedures and the expectations from office managers and secretaries. This study investigated the level of knowledge and use of computer office application packages by secretaries and office managers in higher educational institutions in Ogun State and the implications of these on their performance enhancement. The study is an ex post facto research and adopted the survey design for the collection of data. Two hypotheses were formulated, and a questionnaire was developed and tested at 0.05 level of significance. All office managers and secretaries in the service of higher educational institutions in Ogun State, Nigeria formed the population of the study. The study was limited to federal institutions and a total of 120 office managers/secretaries were selected to form the sample such that 40 office managers/secretaries were randomly selected from each of the three Federal higher institutions in the State, that is Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Federal Polytechnic, Ilaro and Federal College of Education, Osiele, Abeokuta, Ogun State. Analysis of data and hypotheses tests were carried out with frequency counts, percentage and T-Test. The result indicated varying levels of awareness on office application tools with limited knowledge and use of computer application packages by office managers/secretaries. The results also showed that good knowledge and high use of office application tools enhance performance of office managers/secretaries. The study recommended that there should be maximum institutional resources and support and personal development on the part of the office managers to ensure update knowledge and maximal use of office application tools by office managers/secretaries.

Keywords: application packages, computer, office managers, performance enhancement

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1339 Hardships Faced by Entrepreneurs in Marketing Projects for Acquiring Business Loans

Authors: Sudipto Sarkar

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Capital is the primary fuel for starting and running a business. Since capital is crucial for every business, entrepreneurs must successfully acquire adequate capital for executing their projects. Sources for the necessary capital for entrepreneurs include their own personal funds from existing bank accounts, or lines of credit or loans from banks or financial institutions, or equity funding from investors. The most commonly selected source of capital is a bank loan. However, acquiring a loan by any entrepreneur requires adhering to strict guidelines, conditions and norms. Because not only they have to show evidence for viability of the project, but also the means to return the acquired loan. On the bank’s part, it requires that every loan officer performs a thorough credit appraisal of the prospective borrowers and makes decisions about whether or not to lend money, how much to lend, and what conditions should be attached to it. Moreover, these credit decisions in general were often based on biases, analytical techniques, or prior experience. A loan can either turn out to be good or poor, irrespective of what type of credit decisions were followed. However, based on prior experience, the loan officers seem to differentiate between a good and a bad loan by examining the borrower’s credit history, pattern of borrowing, volume of borrowing, frequency of borrowing, and reasons for borrowing. As per an article written by Maureen Wallenfang on postcrescent.com dated May 10, 2010, it is observed that borrowers with good credit, solid business plans and adequate collateral security were able to procure loans very easily in the Fox Valley region. Since loans are required to run businesses, and also with the propensity of loans to become bad, loan officers tend to be very critical and cautious before approving and disbursing the loans. The pressure to be critical and cautious, at least partly, is a result of increased scrutiny by the Securities and Exchange Commission. As per Wall Street Journal (Sidel & Eaglesham, March, 3 2011, online), the Securities and Exchange Commission scrutinized banks that have restructured troubled loans in order to make them appear healthier than they really are. Therefore, loan officers’ loan criteria are of immense importance for entrepreneurs and banks alike.

Keywords: entrepreneur, loans, marketing, banks

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