Search results for: climate model

Authors: Md. Kausar Alam, Mohammad Yazdi, Peiman Zogh, Ramin Motamed

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The liquefaction-induced ground settlement has caused severe damage to structures in the past decades. However, the amount of building settlement caused by liquefaction is directly proportional to the intensity of the ground shaking. To reduce this soil liquefaction effect, it is essential to examine the influence of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Unfortunately, limited studies have been carried out on this issue. In this study, a series of moderate scale 1g shake table experiments were conducted at the University of Nevada Reno to evaluate the influence of PGA with the same duration in liquefiable soil layers. The model is prepared based on a large-scale shake table with a scaling factor of N = 5, which has been conducted at the University of California, San Diego. The model ground has three soil layers with relative densities of 50% for crust, 30% for liquefiable, and 90% for dense layer, respectively. In addition, a shallow foundation is seated over an unsaturated crust layer. After preparing the model, the input motions having various peak ground accelerations (i.e., 0.16g, 0.25g, and 0.37g) for the same duration (10 sec) were applied. Based on the experimental results, when the PGA increased from 0.16g to 0.37g, the foundation increased from 20 mm to 100 mm. In addition, the expected foundation settlement based on the scaling factor was 25 mm, while the actual settlement for PGA 0.25g for 10 seconds was 50 mm.

Keywords: foundation settlement, liquefaction, peak ground acceleration, shake table test

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Authors: Ehsan Gholamalizadeh, Jae Dong Chung

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Solar chimney power plant is a feasible solar thermal system which produces electricity from the Sun. The objective of this study is to investigate buoyancy-driven flow and heat transfer through a built pilot solar chimney system called 'Kerman Project'. The system has a chimney with the height and diameter of 60 m and 3 m, respectively, and the average radius of its solar collector is about 20 m, and also its average collector height is about 2 m. A three-dimensional simulation was conducted to analyze the system, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In this model, radiative transfer equation was solved using the discrete ordinates (DO) radiation model taking into account a non-gray radiation behavior. In order to modelling solar irradiation from the sun’s rays, the solar ray tracing algorithm was coupled to the computation via a source term in the energy equation. The model was validated with comparing to the experimental data of the Manzanares prototype and also the performance of the built pilot system. Then, based on the numerical simulations, velocity and temperature distributions through the system, the temperature profile of the ground surface and the system performance were presented. The analysis accurately shows the flow and heat transfer characteristics through the pilot system and predicts its performance.

Keywords: buoyancy-driven flow, computational fluid dynamics, heat transfer, renewable energy, solar chimney power plant

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Authors: S. Belgherras Bekkouche, T. Benouaz, S. M. A. Bekkouche

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Tokamak plasma is far from having a stable background. The study of turbulent transport is an important part of the current research and advanced scenarios were devised to minimize it. To do this, we used a three-wave interaction model which allows to investigate the occurrence drift-wave turbulence driven by pressure gradients in the edge plasma of a tokamak. In order to simulate the energy redistribution among different modes, the growth/decay rates for the three waves was added. After a numerical simulation, we can determine certain aspects of the temporal dynamics exhibited by the model. Indeed for a wide range of the wave decay rate, an intermittent transition from periodic behavior to chaos is observed. Then, a control strategy of chaos was introduced with the aim of reducing or eliminating the weak turbulence.

Keywords: wave interaction, plasma drift waves, wave turbulence, tokamak, edge plasma, chaos

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Authors: Muhammad Jahanzaib, Muhammad Z. A. Khan, Junaid Khayyam

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Islamabad is the capital of Pakistan with the population of 1.365 million people and with a vehicular fleet size of 0.75 million. The vehicular fleet size is growing annually by the rate of 11%. Vehicular emissions are major source of Black carbon (BC). In developing countries like Pakistan, most of the vehicles consume conventional fuels like Petrol, Diesel, and CNG. These fuels are the major emitters of pollutants like CO, CO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and particulate matter (PM10). Carbon dioxide and methane are the leading contributor to the global warming with a global share of 9-26% and 4-9% respectively. NOx is the precursor of nitrates which ultimately form aerosols that are noxious to human health. In this study, COPERT (Computer program to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) was used for vehicular emission estimation in Islamabad. COPERT is a windows based program which is developed for the calculation of emissions from the road transport sector. The emissions were calculated for the year of 2016 include pollutants like CO, NOx, VOC, and PM and energy consumption. The different variable was input to the model for emission estimation including meteorological parameters, average vehicular trip length and respective time duration, fleet configuration, activity data, degradation factor, and fuel effect. The estimated emissions for CO, CH4, CO2, NOx, and PM10 were found to be 9814.2, 44.9, 279196.7, 3744.2 and 304.5 tons respectively.

Keywords: COPERT Model, emission estimation, PM10, vehicular emission

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Authors: M. Unis, S. Turky, A. Elalem, A. Meshrghi

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The Esterification kinetics of acetic acid with isopropnol in the presence of sulfuric acid as a homogenous catalyst was studied with isothermal batch experiments at 60,70 and 80°C and at a different molar ratio of isopropnol to acetic acid. Investigation of kinetics of the reaction indicated that the low of molar ratio is favored for esterification reaction, this is due to the reaction is catalyzed by acid. The maximum conversion, approximately 60.6% was obtained at 80°C for molar ratio of 1:3 acid : alcohol. It was found that increasing temperature of the reaction, increases the rate constant and conversion at a certain mole ratio, that is due to the esterification is exothermic. The homogenous reaction has been described with simple power-law model. The chemical equilibrium combustion calculated from the kinetic model in agreement with the measured chemical equilibrium.

Keywords: artificial flavors, esterification, chemical equilibria, isothermal

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Authors: Naohiro Nakamura, Takuya Kinoshita, Hiroshi Fukuyama

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The 2011 off The Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake caused considerable damage to wide areas of eastern Japan. A large number of earthquake observation records were obtained at various places. To design more earthquake-resistant buildings and improve earthquake disaster prevention, it is necessary to utilize these data to analyze and evaluate the behavior of a building during an earthquake. This paper presents an earthquake response simulation analysis (hereafter a seismic response analysis) that was conducted using data recorded during the main earthquake (hereafter the main shock) as well as the earthquakes before and after it. The data were obtained at a high-rise steel-reinforced concrete (SRC) building in the bay area of Tokyo. We first give an overview of the building, along with the characteristics of the earthquake motion and the building during the main shock. The data indicate that there was a change in the natural period before and after the earthquake. Next, we present the results of our seismic response analysis. First, the analysis model and conditions are shown, and then, the analysis result is compared with the observational records. Using the analysis result, we then study the effect of soil-structure interaction on the response of the building. By identifying the characteristics of the building during the earthquake (i.e., the 1st natural period and the 1st damping ratio) by the Auto-Regressive eXogenous (ARX) model, we compare the analysis result with the observational records so as to evaluate the accuracy of the response analysis. In this study, a lumped-mass system SR model was used to conduct a seismic response analysis using observational data as input waves. The main results of this study are as follows: 1) The observational records of the 3/11 main shock put it between a level 1 and level 2 earthquake. The result of the ground response analysis showed that the maximum shear strain in the ground was about 0.1% and that the possibility of liquefaction occurring was low. 2) During the 3/11 main shock, the observed wave showed that the eigenperiod of the building became longer; this behavior could be generally reproduced in the response analysis. This prolonged eigenperiod was due to the nonlinearity of the superstructure, and the effect of the nonlinearity of the ground seems to have been small. 3) As for the 4/11 aftershock, a continuous analysis in which the subject seismic wave was input after the 3/11 main shock was input was conducted. The analyzed values generally corresponded well with the observed values. This means that the effect of the nonlinearity of the main shock was retained by the building. It is important to consider this when conducting the response evaluation. 4) The first period and the damping ratio during a vibration were evaluated by an ARX model. Our results show that the response analysis model in this study is generally good at estimating a change in the response of the building during a vibration.

Keywords: ARX model, response analysis, SRC building, the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

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Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10

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Authors: Xueming Xu, Jiahao Liu, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Minghao Li, Bingfeng Ge

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A combat system-of-systems (CSoS) comprises various types of functional combat entities that interact to meet corresponding task requirements in the present and future. Enhancing the resilience of CSoS holds significant military value in optimizing the operational planning process, improving military survivability, and ensuring the successful completion of operational tasks. Accordingly, this research proposes an integrated framework called CSoS resilience enhancement (CSoSRE) to enhance the resilience of CSoS from a recovery perspective. Specifically, this research presents a two-phase resilience optimization model to define a resilience optimization objective for CSoS. This model considers not only task baseline, recovery cost, and recovery time limit but also the characteristics of emergency recovery and comprehensive recovery. Moreover, the research extends it from the deterministic case to the stochastic case to describe the uncertainty in the recovery process. Based on this, a resilience-oriented recovery optimization method based on deep reinforcement learning (RRODRL) is proposed to determine a set of entities requiring restoration and their recovery sequence, thereby enhancing the resilience of CSoS. This method improves the deep Q-learning algorithm by designing a discount factor that adapts to changes in CSoS state at different phases, simultaneously considering the network’s structural and functional characteristics within CSoS. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted to test the feasibility, effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework. The obtained results offer useful insights for guiding operational recovery activity and designing a more resilient CSoS.

Keywords: combat system-of-systems, resilience optimization model, recovery optimization method, deep reinforcement learning, certainty and uncertainty

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Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

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Authors: Beatriz Lafuente Alcázar, Yash Wani, Amit J. Nimunkar

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Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death globally, and around 80% of sudden cardiac deaths are due to arrhythmias or irregular heartbeats. The majority of these pathologies are revealed by either short-term or long-term alterations in the electrocardiogram (ECG) morphology. The ECG is the main diagnostic tool in cardiology. It is a non-invasive, pain free procedure that measures the heart’s electrical activity and that allows the detecting of abnormal rhythms and underlying conditions. A cardiologist can diagnose a wide range of pathologies based on ECG’s form alterations, but the human interpretation is subjective and it is contingent to error. Moreover, ECG records can be quite prolonged in time, which can further complicate visual diagnosis, and deeply retard disease detection. In this context, deep learning methods have risen as a promising strategy to extract relevant features and eliminate individual subjectivity in ECG analysis. They facilitate the computation of large sets of data and can provide early and precise diagnoses. Therefore, the cardiology field is one of the areas that can most benefit from the implementation of deep learning algorithms. In the present study, a deep learning algorithm is trained following a novel approach, using a combination of different databases as the training set. The goal of the algorithm is to achieve the detection of R-peaks in ECG signals. Its performance is further evaluated in ECG signals with different origins and features to test the model’s ability to generalize its outcomes. Performance of the model for detection of R-peaks for clean and noisy ECGs is presented. The model is able to detect R-peaks in the presence of various types of noise, and when presented with data, it has not been trained. It is expected that this approach will increase the effectiveness and capacity of cardiologists to detect divergences in the normal cardiac activity of their patients.

Keywords: arrhythmia, deep learning, electrocardiogram, machine learning, R-peaks

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Authors: Zhen Cheng, Xinyu Dai, Shujian Huang, Jiajun Chen

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Recently, explanatory natural language inference has attracted much attention for the interpretability of logic relationship prediction, which is also known as explanation generation for Natural Language Inference (NLI). Existing explanation generators based on discriminative Encoder-Decoder architecture have achieved noticeable results. However, we find that these discriminative generators usually generate explanations with correct evidence but incorrect logic semantic. It is due to that logic information is implicitly encoded in the premise-hypothesis pairs and difficult to model. Actually, logic information identically exists between premise-hypothesis pair and explanation. And it is easy to extract logic information that is explicitly contained in the target explanation. Hence we assume that there exists a latent space of logic information while generating explanations. Specifically, we propose a generative model called Variational Explanation Generator (VariationalEG) with a latent variable to model this space. Training with the guide of explicit logic information in target explanations, latent variable in VariationalEG could capture the implicit logic information in premise-hypothesis pairs effectively. Additionally, to tackle the problem of posterior collapse while training VariaztionalEG, we propose a simple yet effective approach called Logic Supervision on the latent variable to force it to encode logic information. Experiments on explanation generation benchmark—explanation-Stanford Natural Language Inference (e-SNLI) demonstrate that the proposed VariationalEG achieves significant improvement compared to previous studies and yields a state-of-the-art result. Furthermore, we perform the analysis of generated explanations to demonstrate the effect of the latent variable.

Keywords: natural language inference, explanation generation, variational auto-encoder, generative model

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Authors: Rolf Katzenbach, Frithjof Clauss, Jie Zheng

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The final energy use can be divided mainly in four sectors: commercial, industrial, residential, and transportation. The trend in final energy consumption by sector plays as a most straightforward way to provide a wide indication of progress for reducing energy consumption and associated environmental impacts by different end use sectors. According to statistics the average share of end use energy for residential sector in the world was nearly 20% until 2011, in Germany a higher proportion is between 25% and 30%. However, it remains less studied than energy use in other three sectors as well its impacts on climate and environment. The reason for this involves a wide range of fields, including the diversity of residential construction like different housing building design and materials, living or energy using behavioral patterns, climatic condition and variation as well other social obstacles, market trend potential and financial support from government. This paper presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the manner by which projects researched and operated by authors in the fields of energy efficiency primarily from the perspectives of both technical potential and initiative energy saving consciousness in the residential sectors especially in social housing buildings.

Keywords: energy efficiency, renewable energy, retro-commissioning, social housing, sustainability

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Authors: Farzana Sharmin, Mohammad Tipu Sultan

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Emerging new media technology such as social media and social networking sites have changed the family business dynamics in Eastern Asia. The family business trends in China has been developed at an exponential rate towards technology. In the last two decades, many of this family business has succeeded in becoming major players in the Chinese and world economy. But there are a very few availabilities of literature on Chinese context regarding social media acceptance in terms of the family business. Therefore, this study has tried to cover the gap between culture and new media technology to understand the attitude of Chinese young entrepreneurs’ towards the family business. This paper focused on two cultural dimensions (collectivism, long-term orientation), which are adopted from Greet Hofstede’s. Additionally perceived usefulness and ease of use adopted from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to explore the actual behavior of technology acceptance for the family business. A quantitative survey method (n=275) used to collect data Chinese family business owners' in Shanghai. The inferential statistical analysis was applied to extract trait factors, and verification of the model, respectively. The research results found that using social media for family business promotion has highly influenced by cultural values (collectivism and long-term orientation). The theoretical contribution of this research may also assist policymakers and practitioners of other developing countries to advertise and promote the family business through social media.

Keywords: China, cultural dimensions, family business, technology acceptance model, TAM

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Authors: Keyi Wang

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Similar to the touchscreen, hand gesture based human-computer interaction (HCI) is a technology that could allow people to perform a variety of tasks faster and more conveniently. This paper proposes a training method of an image-based hand gesture image and video clip recognition system using a CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) with a dataset. A dataset containing 6 hand gesture images is used to train a 2D CNN model. ~98% accuracy is achieved. Furthermore, a 3D CNN model is trained on a dataset containing 4 hand gesture video clips resulting in ~83% accuracy. It is demonstrated that a Cozmo robot loaded with pre-trained models is able to recognize static and dynamic hand gestures.

Keywords: deep learning, hand gesture recognition, computer vision, image processing

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Authors: Rikson Gultom

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Hate Speech and Abusive language on social media is difficult to detect, usually, it is detected after it becomes viral in cyberspace, of course, it is too late for prevention. An early detection system that has a fairly good accuracy is needed so that it can reduce conflicts that occur in society caused by postings on social media that attack individuals, groups, and governments in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to find an early detection model on Twitter social media using machine learning that has high accuracy from several machine learning methods studied. In this study, the support vector machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Random Forest Decision Tree (RFDT) methods were compared with the Support Vector machine with genetic algorithm (SVM-GA), Nave Bayes with genetic algorithm (NB-GA), and Random Forest Decision Tree with Genetic Algorithm (RFDT-GA). The study produced a comparison table for the accuracy of the hate speech and abusive language detection model, and presented it in the form of a graph of the accuracy of the six algorithms developed based on the Indonesian-language Twitter dataset, and concluded the best model with the highest accuracy.

Keywords: abusive language, hate speech, machine learning, optimization, social media

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Authors: Hossain A., Chowdhury S. I.

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Introduction: The use of a gamma camera is a standard procedure in nuclear medicine facilities or hospitals to diagnose chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the gamma camera does not precisely stage the disease. The authors sought to determine whether they could use an artificial neural network to determine whether CKD was in normal or abnormal stages based on GFR values (ANN). Method: The 250 kidney patients (Training 188, Testing 62) who underwent an ultrasonography test to diagnose a renal test in our nuclear medical center were scanned using a gamma camera. Before the scanning procedure, the patients received an injection of ⁹⁹ᵐTc-DTPA. The gamma camera computes the pre- and post-syringe radioactive counts after the injection has been pushed into the patient's vein. The artificial neural network uses the softmax function with cross-entropy loss to determine whether CKD is normal or abnormal based on the GFR value in the output layer. Results: The proposed ANN model had a 99.20 % accuracy according to K-fold cross-validation. The sensitivity and specificity were 99.10 and 99.20 %, respectively. AUC was 0.994. Conclusion: The proposed model can distinguish between normal and abnormal stages of CKD by using an artificial neural network. The gamma camera could be upgraded to diagnose normal or abnormal stages of CKD with an appropriate GFR value following the clinical application of the proposed model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, glomerular filtration rate, stages of the kidney, gamma camera

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Authors: Granch Berhe Tseghai, Lodrick Wangatia Makokha

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Cotton dyeing using reactive dyes is one of the major water polluter; this is due to large amount of dye and salt remaining in effluent. Recent adverse climate change and its associated effect to human life have lead to search for more sustainable industrial production. Cationization of cotton to improve its affinity for reactive dye has been earmarked as a major solution for dyeing of cotton with no or less salt. Synthetic cationizing agents of ammonium salt have already been commercialized. However, in nature there are proteinous products which are rich in amino and ammonium salts which can be carefully harnessed to be used as cationizing agent for cotton. The hoofs and horns have successfully been used to cationize cotton so as to improve cotton affinity to the dye. The cationization action of the hoof and horn extract on cotton was confirmed by dyeing the pretreated fabric without salt and comparing it with conventionally dyed and untreated salt free dyed fabric. UV-VIS absorption results showed better dye absorption (62.5% and 50% dye bath exhaustion percentage for cationized and untreated respectively) while K/S values of treated samples were similar to conventional sample.

Keywords: cationization, cotton, proteinous products, reactive dyes

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Authors: Pius Akindele Adeniyi

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The World's tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate of more than 200,000 ha per year as a result of deforestation due mainly to population pressures, economic growth, poor management and inappropriate policy. A forest policy determines the role of the sector in a nation's economy and it is formulated in accordance with the objectives of the national economic development. Urban forestry as a concept is relatively new in Nigeria when compared to European and American countries. It consists of growing of trees, shrubs and grass along streets, in parks, and around public or private buildings whose management rests in the hands of the public and private owners. Major urban centers in Nigeria are devoid of efficiently planned tree-planting programs. Hence, various factors militating against environmental improvements, such as climate and other agents of degradation, are highlighted for the necessary attention. The paper discusses the need for forest policy formulation and the objectives of forest policy. Elements of forest policy are also discussed and in particular, those peculiar to urbanization and degraded lands are Forest policy and land-use and policy implementation together with some problem issues in forest policy are discussed while recommendations are given on formulation of a forest policy.

Keywords: urban, forest, policy, environment, interaction, degraded

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Authors: Liu-Chao Qiu

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The damage caused by surge waves generated in water bodies by flow-like landslides can be very high in terms of human lives and economic losses. The complicated phenomena occurred in this highly unsteady process are difficult to model because three interacting phases: air, water and sediment are involved. The problem therefore is challenging since the effects of non-Newtonian fluid describing the rheology of the flow-like landslides, multi-phase flow and free surface have to be included in the simulation. In this work, the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package FLUENT is used to model the surge waves due to flow-like landslides. The comparison between the numerical results and experimental data reported in the literature confirms the accuracy of the method.

Keywords: flow-like landslide, surge wave, VOF, non-Newtonian fluids, multi-phase flows, free surface flow

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Authors: Tareg M. Elsunaki, Suleiman A. Arafa, Mohamed A. Abd-Alla

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New interesting thermal stable polyesters containing 1-methyl-4-piperidone moiety in the main chain have been synthesized. These polyesters were synthesized by interfacial polycondensation technique of 3,5-bis(4-hydroxybenzylidene)-1-methyl-4-piperidone (I) and 3,5-bis(4-hydroxy-3-methoxy benzyli-dene)-1-methyl-4-piperidone (II) with terphthaloyl, isophthaloyl, 4,4'-diphenic, adipoyl and sebacoyl dichlorides. The yield and the values of the reduced viscosity of the produced polyesters were found to be affected by the type of an organic phase. In order to characterize these polymers, the necessary model compounds (A), (B) were prepared from (I), (II) respectively and benzoyl chloride. The structure of monomers (I), (II), model compounds and resulting polyesters were confirmed by IR, elemental analysis and 1HNMR spectroscopy. The various characteristic of the resulting polymers including solubility, thermal properties, viscosity and X-ray analysis were also studied.

Keywords: synthesis, characterization, new polyesters, chemistry

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Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

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Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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Authors: Sufrin Hannan, Budi Suharjo, Rita Nurmalina, Kirbrandoko

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The challenge for independent surveyor service companies now is growing with increasing uncertainty in business. Protection from the government for domestic independent surveyor industry from competitor attack, such as entering the global surveyors to Indonesia also no longer exists. Therefore, building customer loyalty becomes very important to create a long-term relationship between an independent surveyor with its customers. This study aims to develop a model that can be used to build customer loyalty by looking at various factors that determine customer loyalty, especially on independent surveyors for coal inspection in Indonesia. The development of this model uses the relationship marketing approach. Testing of the hypothesis is done by testing the variables that determine customer loyalty, either directly or indirectly, which amounted to 10 variables. The data were collected from 200 questionnaires filled by independent surveyor company decision makers from 51 exporting companies and coal trading companies in Indonesia and analyzed using Structural Equation Model (SEM). The results show that customer loyalty of independent surveyors is influenced by customer satisfaction, trust, switching-barrier, and relationship-bond. Research on customer satisfaction shows that customer satisfaction is influenced by the perceived quality and perceived value, while perceived quality is influenced by reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy.

Keywords: relationship marketing, customer loyalty, customer satisfaction, switching barriers, relationship bonds

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Authors: Lucy Patricia Onundo, Wilfred Njoroge Mwema

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The rapidly diminishing fossil fuel reserves, their exorbitant cost and the increasingly apparent negative effect of fossil fuels to climate changes is a wake-up call to explore renewable energy. Wind, bio-fuel and solar power have already become staples of Kenyan electricity mix. The potential of electric power generation from marine tidal currents is enormous, with oceans covering more than 70% of the earth. However, attempts to harness marine tidal energy in Kenya, has yet to be studied thoroughly due to its promising, cyclic, reliable and predictable nature and the vast energy contained within it. The high load factors resulting from the fluid properties and the predictable resource characteristics make marine currents particularly attractive for power generation and advantageous when compared to others. Global-level resource assessments and oceanographic literature and data have been compiled in an analysis of the technology-specific requirements for tidal energy technologies and the physical resources. Temporal variations in resource intensity as well as the differences between small-scale applications are considered.

Keywords: tidal power, renewable energy, energy assessment, Kenya

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Authors: Giacomo Barbieri

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In soilless culture, the management of the nutrient solution is the most important aspect for crop growing. Fertigation dose, frequency and nutrient concentration must be planned with the objective of reaching an optimal crop growth by limiting the utilized resources and the associated costs. The definition of efficient fertigation strategies is a complex problem since fertigation requirements vary on the basis of different factors, and crops are sensitive to small variations on fertigation parameters. To the best of author knowledge, a small-scale test bench that is flexible for both nutrient solution preparation and precise irrigation is currently missing, limiting the investigations in standard practices for soilless culture. Starting from the analysis of the state of the art, this paper proposes a small-scale system that is potentially able to concurrently test different fertigation strategies. The system will be designed and implemented throughout a three year project started on August 2018. However, due to the importance of the topic within current challenges as food security and climate change, this work is spread considering that may inspire other universities and organizations.

Keywords: soilless culture, fertigation, test bench, small-scale, automation

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Authors: Leveque Benjamin, Rabaud Suzanne, Anest Hugo, Catalan Caroline, Neveux Guillaume

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Human products consumption is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss. However, few pertinent ecological indicators regarding product life cycle impact on species and ecosystems have been built. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies are well under way to conceive standardized methods to assess this impact, by taking already partially into account three of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment pressures (land use, pollutions, climate change). Coupling LCA and ecological data and methods is an emerging challenge to develop a product biodiversity footprint. This approach was tested on three case studies from food processing, textile, and cosmetic industries. It allowed first to improve the environmental relevance of the Potential Disappeared Fraction of species, end-point indicator typically used in life cycle analysis methods, and second to introduce new indicators on overexploitation and invasive species. This type of footprint is a major step in helping companies to identify their impacts on biodiversity and to propose potential improvements.

Keywords: biodiversity, companies, footprint, life cycle assessment, products

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Authors: Wenxin Mei, Jinhua Sun, Qingsong Wang

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The volume expansion of lithium-ion batteries is mainly induced by intercalation induced stress within the negative electrode, resulting in capacity degradation and even battery failure. Stress generation due to lithium intercalation into graphite particles is investigated based on an electrochemical-mechanical model in this work. The two-dimensional model presented is fully coupled, inclusive of the impacts of intercalation-induced stress, stress-induced intercalation, to evaluate the lithium concentration, stress generation, and displacement intra and inter-particle. The results show that the distribution of lithium concentration and stress exhibits an analogous pattern, which reflects the relation between lithium diffusion and stress. The results of inter-particle stress indicate that larger Von-Mises stress is displayed where the two particles are in contact with each other, and deformation at the edge of particles is also observed, predicting fracture. Additionally, the maximum inter-particle stress at the end of lithium intercalation is nearly ten times the intraparticle stress. And the maximum inter-particle displacement is increased by 24% compared to the single-particle. Finally, the effect of graphite particle arrangement on inter-particle stress is studied. It is found that inter-particle stress with tighter arrangement exhibits lower stress. This work can provide guidance for predicting the intra and inter-particle stress to take measures to avoid cracking of electrode material.

Keywords: electrochemical-mechanical model, graphite particle, lithium concentration, lithium ion battery, stress

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Authors: Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, Nomakhaya Monde

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Water crises have the fourth most significant societal impact after weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and extreme weather conditions, ahead of natural disasters. Intricacies between women and water are central to achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The majority of the 1.2 billion poor people worldwide, with two-thirds being women, and mostly located in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and South Asia, do not have access to safe and reliable sources of water. There exist gendered differences in water security based on the division of labour associating women with water. Globally, women and girls are responsible for water collection in 80% of the households which have no water on their premises. Women spend 16 million hours a day collecting water, while men and children spend 6 million and 4 million per day, respectively, which is time foregone in the pursuit of other livelihood activities. Due to their proximity and activities concerning water, women are vulnerable to water insecurity through exposures to water-borne diseases, fatigue from physically carrying water, and exposure to sexual and physical harassment, amongst others. Proximity to treated water and their wellbeing also has an effect on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to water insecurity. The great distances, difficult terrain and heavy lifting expose women to vulnerabilities of water insecurity. However, few studies have quantified the vulnerabilities and burdens on women, with a few taking a phenomenological qualitative approach. Vulnerability studies have also been scanty in the water security realm, with most studies taking linear forms of either quantifying exposures, sensitivities or adaptive capacities in climate change studies. The current study argues for the need for a water insecurity vulnerability assessment, especially for women into research agendas as well as policy interventions, monitoring, and evaluation. The study sought to identify and provide pathways through which female-headed households were water insecure in South Africa, the 30th driest country in the world. This was through linking the drinking water decision as well as the vulnerability frameworks. Secondary data collected during the 2016 General Household Survey (GHS) was utilised, with a sample of 5928 female-headed households. Principal Component Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling were used to analyse the data. The results show dynamic relationships between water characteristics and water treatment. There were also associations between water access and wealth status of the female-headed households. Association was also found between water access and water treatment as well as between wealth status and water treatment. The study concludes that there are dynamic relationships in water insecurity (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for female-headed households in South Africa. The study recommends that a multi-prong approach is required in tackling exposures, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities to water insecurity. This should include capacitating and empowering women for wealth generation, improve access to water treatment equipment as well as prioritising the improvement of infrastructure that brings piped and safe water to female-headed households.

Keywords: gender, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, vulnerability, water insecurity

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Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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Authors: K. Julia Rose Mary, Victor Arokia Doss

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Electrical and chemical stimulations up-regulate phosphorylaion of CREB, a transcriptional factor that induces its target gene production for memory consolidation and Late Long-Term Potentiation (L-LTP) in CA1 region of the hippocampus. L-LTP requires complex interactions among second-messenger signaling cascade molecules such as cAMP, CAMKII, CAMKIV, MAPK, RSK, PKA, all of which converge to phosphorylate CREB which along with CBP induces the transcription of target genes involved in memory consolidation. A differential equation based model for L-LTP representing stimulus-mediated activation of downstream mediators which confirms the steep, supralinear stimulus-response effects of activation and inhibition was used. The same was extended to accommodate the inhibitory effect of the Inducible cAMP Early Repressor (ICER). ICER is the natural inducible CREB antagonist represses CRE-Mediated gene transcription involved in long-term plasticity for learning and memory. After verifying the sensitivity and robustness of the model, we had simulated it with various empirical levels of repressor concentration to analyse their effect on the gene induction. The model appears to predict the regulatory dynamics of repression on the L-LTP and agrees with the experimental values. The flux data obtained in the simulations demonstrate various aspects of equilibrium between the gene induction and repression.

Keywords: CREB, L-LTP, mathematical modeling, simulation

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Authors: B. Paygozar, S.A. Dizaji

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Adhesive bonding is a highly valued type of fastening mechanical parts in complex structures, where joining some simple components is always needed. This method is of several merits, such as uniform stress distribution, appropriate bonding strength, and fatigue performance, and lightness, thereby outweighing other sorts of bonding methods. This study is to investigate the failure load of adhesive single-strap joints, including adherends of different sizes and materials. This kind of adhesive joint is very practical in different industries, especially when repairing the existing joints or attaching substrates of dissimilar materials. In this research, experimentally validated numerical analyses carried out in a commercial finite element package, ABAQUS, are utilized to extract the failure loads of the joints, based on the cohesive zone model. In addition, the stress analyses of the substrates are performed in order to acquire the effects of lowering the thickness of the substrates on the stress distribution inside them to avoid designs suffering from the necking or failure of the adherends. It was found out that this method of bonding is really feasible in joining dissimilar materials which can be utilized in a variety of applications. Moreover, the stress analyses indicated the minimum thickness for the adherends so as to avoid the failure of them.

Keywords: cohesive zone model, dissimilar materials, failure load, single strap joint

Procedia PDF Downloads 123