Search results for: financial imbalances
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2847

Search results for: financial imbalances

2337 The Antecedent Variables of Government Financial Accounting System (SAKD) Implementation and Its Consequences: Empirical Study on the Device of Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County, City Region III Central Java Province, Indo

Authors: Dona Primasari

Abstract:

This study examines the antecedent variables of Government Financial Acccounting System (SAKD) implementation and its consequence. The antecedent variables are: decentralization of decision making, adaptation, and the manager support. The consequences are satisfaction and performance officer. This research represents the empirical test which used convenience sampling technics in data collection. The data were collected from 167 officers of local government in the Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County/City Region III Central Java Province. Data analysis used Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the AMOS 18.0 program. The result of hypothesis examination indicates that six raised hypothesis are accepted and two hypothesis are rejected.

Keywords: decentralization of decision making, adaptation officer, manager support, implementation of Government Accounting Financial System (SAKD), satisfaction and performance officer

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
2336 Application of Deep Neural Networks to Assess Corporate Credit Rating

Authors: Parisa Golbayani, Dan Wang, Ionut¸ Florescu

Abstract:

In this work we implement machine learning techniques to financial statement reports in order to asses company’s credit rating. Specifically, the work analyzes the performance of four neural network architectures (MLP, CNN, CNN2D, LSTM) in predicting corporate credit rating as issued by Standard and Poor’s. The paper focuses on companies from the energy, financial, and healthcare sectors in the US. The goal of this analysis is to improve application of machine learning algorithms to credit assessment. To accomplish this, the study investigates three questions. First, we investigate if the algorithms perform better when using a selected subset of important features or whether better performance is obtained by allowing the algorithms to select features themselves. Second, we address the temporal aspect inherent in financial data and study whether it is important for the results obtained by a machine learning algorithm. Third, we aim to answer if one of the four particular neural network architectures considered consistently outperforms the others, and if so under which conditions. This work frames the problem as several case studies to answer these questions and analyze the results using ANOVA and multiple comparison testing procedures.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, long short term memory, multilayer perceptron, credit rating

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2335 The Relationship between Spanish Economic Variables: Evidence from the Wavelet Techniques

Authors: Concepcion Gonzalez-Concepcion, Maria Candelaria Gil-Fariña, Celina Pestano-Gabino

Abstract:

We analyze six relevant economic and financial variables for the period 2000M1-2015M3 in the context of the Spanish economy: a financial index (IBEX35), a commodity (Crude Oil Price in euros), a foreign exchange index (EUR/USD), a bond (Spanish 10-Year Bond), the Spanish National Debt and the Consumer Price Index. The goal of this paper is to analyze the main relations between them by computing the Wavelet Power Spectrum and the Cross Wavelet Coherency associated with Morlet wavelets. By using a special toolbox in MATLAB, we focus our interest on the period variable. We decompose the time-frequency effects and improve the interpretation of the results by non-expert users in the theory of wavelets. The empirical evidence shows certain instability periods and reveals various changes and breaks in the causality relationships for sample data. These variables were individually analyzed with Daubechies Wavelets to visualize high-frequency variance, seasonality, and trend. The results are included in Proceeding 20th International Academic Conference, 2015, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences (IISES), Madrid.

Keywords: economic and financial variables, Spain, time-frequency domain, wavelet coherency

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2334 The Return Migration as One of the Possibilities of Migrant Mobility after the Financial Crisis

Authors: Sabrina Mortet

Abstract:

The economic crisis, which struck the world economy in mid-2008, had an impact on migration in Europe, especially the employment situation of migrant workers. That’s why migrants tended to be the first to lose their jobs during the crisis, victims of the rule "last–in, first-out”. In the same context, the economic recession which affected the migration flows, immigration level has slowed while emigration has increased in some European countries. Since people go where jobs are, we will try to speak about the mobility of migrants after the crisis by focusing on return migration to see if migrants in the period of recession prefer going home or staying in the host country; and we will take Spain as a case of study, because it had attracted an extraordinarily high inflows of migration and it is one of the EU country which was hardly affected by the financial crisis.

Keywords: economic crisis, international migration, mobility, return migration, employement

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2333 Bank, Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Growth: Lessons for ASEAN-5

Authors: Tan Swee Liang

Abstract:

This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression developed by Beck and Katz (1995). Data from five economies in ASEAN (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia), five economies in Asia (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and India) and seven economies in OECD (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom U.K., and United States U.S.), between 1990 and 2017 are used. Empirical findings suggest one, for Asia-5 high bank net interest margin means greater bank profitability, hence spurring economic growth. Two, for OECD-7 low bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) may reflect weak competition and weak investment in providing superior banking services, hence dampening economic growth. Three, stock market turnover ratio has negative association with OECD-7 economic growth, but a positive association with Asia-5, which suggest the relationship between liquidity and growth is ambiguous. Lastly, for ASEAN-5 high bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) may suggest expenses have not been channelled efficiently to income generating activities. One practical implication of the findings is that policy makers should take necessary measures toward financial liberalisation policies that boost growth through the efficiency channel, so that funds are efficiently allocated through the financial system between financial and real sectors.

Keywords: financial development, banking system, capital markets, economic growth

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2332 Foreign Banks Taking More Risk: Evidence from Emerging Economies

Authors: Minghua Chen, Rui Wang

Abstract:

This paper addresses the impact of foreign ownership on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Using bank-level panel data of more than 1,300 commercial banks in 32 emerging economies during 2000-2013, we find that foreign owned banks take on more risk than their domestic counterparts. We further examine several factors that may potentially contribute to foreign banks’ differentiated riskiness from four perspectives, namely, foreign banks’ informational disadvantages, agency problems, the contagious effect of parent banks’ financial conditions and the disparity between home and host markets. We find supportive evidence that these factors play a significant role in affecting foreign banks’ risk-taking.

Keywords: bank risk-taking, emerging economies, financial liberalization, foreign banks

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2331 Social Networks as a Tool for Sports Marketing

Authors: Márcia Aparecida Teixeira

Abstract:

Sports, in particular football, boosts considerably the financial market of a certain locality, be it city or even a country. The financial transactions involving this medium stand out from other existing businesses, such as small industries. Strategically, social networks are inserted in this sporting environment, in order to promote and attract new fans of this modality. The present study analyzes the use of social networks in Sports Marketing with a focus on football. For the object of this study, it was chosen a specific club, the Club Atlético Mineiro, a Brazilian club of great national notoriety. The social networks on focus will be: Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. It will be analyzed the content and frequency of the posts, reception of the target public in relation to the content made available and its feedback.

Keywords: social network, sport, strategy, marketing

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2330 Interfacing Photovoltaic Systems to the Utility Grid: A Comparative Simulation Study to Mitigate the Impact of Unbalanced Voltage Dips

Authors: Badr M. Alshammari, A. Rabeh, A. K. Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents the modeling and the control of a grid-connected photovoltaic system (PVS). Firstly, the MPPT control of the PVS and its associated DC/DC converter has been analyzed in order to extract the maximum of available power. Secondly, the control system of the grid side converter (GSC) which is a three-phase voltage source inverter (VSI) has been presented. A special attention has been paid to the control algorithms of the GSC converter during grid voltages imbalances. Especially, three different control objectives are to achieve; the mitigation of the grid imbalance adverse effects, at the point of common coupling (PCC), on the injected currents, the elimination of double frequency oscillations in active power flow, and the elimination of double frequency oscillations in reactive power flow. Simulation results of two control strategies have been performed via MATLAB software in order to demonstrate the particularities of each control strategy according to power quality standards.

Keywords: renewable energies, photovoltaic systems, dc link, voltage source inverter, space vector SVPWM, unbalanced voltage dips, symmetrical components

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2329 Entrepreneurship the Bed Rock and Mainstram of World Economy

Authors: Njeze Anthony

Abstract:

In the world economy, entrepreneurship is an outstanding venture. Failures in the businesses of over 70% of Entrepreneurs can be attributed to lack of proper planning. For an entrepreneur to succeed, there are some vital planning strategies that will come into play such as organizational, operational, financial and marketing plans. When an entrepreneur lacks the above mentioned, such an entrepreneur is bound to encounter a catastrophic failure. An entrepreneur with an adequate plan will examine his/her own goals, know why he is in business, look at the venture resource base, have a sound knowledge of his proposed venture and identify obstacles that will be surmounted to achieve the desired goals. This work is aimed at identifying the organizational, operational, financial and marketing impact of entrepreneurship in the world economy and as well the important issues in global entrepreneurship, possible obstacles, and solutions.

Keywords: economy, entrepreneurship, business, operation

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
2328 Managing Cognitive Load in Accounting: An Analysis of Three Instructional Designs in Financial Accounting

Authors: Seedwell Sithole

Abstract:

One of the persistent problems in accounting education is how to effectively support students’ learning. A promising technique to this issue is to investigate the extent that learning is determined by the design of instructional material. This study examines the academic performance of students using three instructional designs in financial accounting. Student’s performance scores and reported mental effort ratings were used to determine the instructional effectiveness. The findings of this study show that accounting students prefer graph and text designs that are integrated. The results suggest that spatially separated graph and text presentations in accounting should be reorganized to align with the requirements of human cognitive architecture.

Keywords: accounting, cognitive load, education, instructional preferences, students

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2327 Studying the Effects of Conditional Conservatism and Lack of Information Asymmetry on the Cost of Capital of the Accepted Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange

Authors: Fayaz Moosavi, Saeid Moradyfard

Abstract:

One of the methods in avoiding management fraud and increasing the quality of financial information, is the notification of qualitative features of financial information, including conservatism characteristic. Although taking a conservatism approach, while boosting the quality of financial information, is able to reduce the informational risk and the cost of capital stock of commercial department, by presenting an improper image about the situation of the commercial department, raises the risk of failure in returning the main and capital interest, and consequently the cost of capital of the commercial department. In order to know if conservatism finally leads to the increase or decrease of the cost of capital or does not have any influence on it, information regarding accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange is utilized by application of pooling method from 2007 to 2012 and it included 124 companies. The results of the study revealed that there is an opposite and meaningful relationship between conditional conservatism and the cost of capital of the company. In other words, if bad and unsuitable news and signs are reflected sooner than good news in accounting profit, the cost of capital of the company increases. In addition, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the cost of capital and lack of information asymmetry.

Keywords: conditional conservatism, lack of information asymmetry, the cost of capital, stock exchange

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2326 Government Credit Card in State Financial Management: Public Sector Innovation in Indonesia

Authors: Paramita Nur Kurniati, Stanislaus Riyanta

Abstract:

In the midst of the heightened usage of electronic money (e-money), Indonesian government expenditure is yet governed through cash-basis transactions. This conventional system brings about a number of potential risks and obstacles to operational conduct, including state financial liquidity issue. Consequently, Ministry of Finance is currently establishing the cashless payment methods for State Budget (APBN). Included in those advance methods is credit card facility as a government expenditure payment scheme. This policy is one of the innovations within the public sector learned from other countries’ best practices. Moreover, this particular method is already prominent within the private-sector realm. Qualitative descriptive analysis technique is implemented to evaluate the contemporary innovation of using government credit card in the path towards cashless society. This approach is expected to generate several benefits for the government, particularly in minimizing corruption within the state financial management. Effective coordination among policy makers and policy implementers is essential for the success of this policy’s exercise, without neglecting prudence and public transparency aspects. Government credit card usage shall be the potent resolution for enhancing the government’s overall public service performance.

Keywords: cashless basis, cashless society, government credit card, public sector innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
2325 Impact of Depreciation Technique on Taxable Income and Financial Performance of Quoted Consumer Goods Company in Nigeria

Authors: Ibrahim Ali, Adamu Danlami Ahmed

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of depreciation on taxable income and financial performance of consumer goods companies quoted on the Nigerian stock exchange. The study adopts ex-post factor research design. Data were collected using a secondary source. The findings of the study suggest that, method of depreciation adopted in any organization influence the taxable profit. Depreciation techniques can either be: depressive, accelerative and linear depreciation. It was also recommended that consumer goods should adjust their method of depreciation to make sure an appropriate method is adopted. This will go a long way to revitalize their taxable profit.

Keywords: accelerated, linear, depressive, depreciation

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
2324 A Review of How COVID-19 Has Created an Insider Fraud Pandemic and How to Stop It

Authors: Claire Norman-Maillet

Abstract:

Insider fraud, including its various synonyms such as occupational, employee or internal fraud, is a major financial crime threat whereby an employee defrauds (or attempts to defraud) their current, prospective, or past employer. ‘Employee’ covers anyone employed by the company, including contractors, directors, and part time staff; they may be a solo bad actor or working in collusion with others, whether internal or external. Insider fraud is even more of a concern given the impacts of the Coronavirus pandemic, which has generated multiple opportunities to commit insider fraud. Insider fraud is something that is not necessarily thought of as a significant financial crime threat; the focus of most academics and practitioners has historically been on that of ‘external fraud’ against businesses or entities where an individual or group has no professional ties. Without the face-to-face, ‘over the shoulder’ capabilities of staff being able to keep an eye on their employees, there is a heightened reliance on trust and transparency. With this, naturally, comes an increased risk of insider fraud perpetration. The objective of the research is to better understand how companies are impacted by insider fraud, and therefore how to stop it. This research will make both an original contribution and stimulate debate within the financial crime field. The financial crime landscape is never static – criminals are always creating new ways to perpetrate financial crime, and new legislation and regulations are implemented as attempts to strengthen controls, in addition to businesses doing what they can internally to detect and prevent it. By focusing on insider fraud specifically, the research will be more specific and will be of greater use to those in the field. To achieve the aims of the research, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 individuals who either work in financial services and deal with insider fraud or work within insider fraud perpetration in a recruitment or advisory capacity. This was to enable the sourcing of information from a wide range of individuals in a setting where they were able to elaborate on their answers. The principal recruitment strategy was engaging with the researcher’s network on LinkedIn. The interviews were then transcribed and analysed thematically. Main findings in the research suggest that insider fraud has been ignored owing to the denial of accepting the possibility that colleagues would defraud their employer. Whilst Coronavirus has led to a significant rise in insider fraud, this type of crime has been a major risk to businesses since their inception, however have never been given the financial or strategic backing required to be mitigated, until it's too late. Furthermore, Coronavirus should have led to companies tightening their access rights, controls and policies to mitigate the insider fraud risk. However, in most cases this has not happened. The research concludes that insider fraud needs to be given a platform upon which to be recognised as a threat to any company and given the same level of weighting and attention by Executive Committees and Boards as other types of economic crime.

Keywords: fraud, insider fraud, economic crime, coronavirus, Covid-19

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2323 The Effect of Mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards Reporting on Investors' Herding Practice: Evidence from Eu Equity Markets

Authors: Mohammed Lawal Danrimi, Ervina Alfan, Mazni Abdullah

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) encourages information-based trading and mitigates investors’ herding practice in emerging EU equity markets. Utilizing a modified non-linear model of cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD), we find that the hypothesis that mandatory IFRS adoption improves the information set of investors and reduces irrational investment behavior may in some cases be incorrect, and the reverse may be true. For instance, with regard to herding concerns, the new reporting benchmark has rather aggravated investors’ herding practice. However, we also find that mandatory IFRS adoption does not appear to be the only instigator of the observed herding practice; national institutional factors, particularly regulatory quality, political stability and control of corruption, also significantly contribute to investors’ herd formation around the new reporting regime. The findings would be of interest to academics, regulators and policymakers in performing a cost-benefit analysis of the so-called better reporting regime, as well as financial statement users who make decisions based on firms’ fundamental variables, treating them as significant indicators of future market movement.

Keywords: equity markets, herding, IFRS, CSAD

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2322 Investigating the Effect of Refinancing on Financial Behaviour of Energy Efficiency Projects

Authors: Zohreh Soltani, Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian

Abstract:

Reduction of energy consumption in built infrastructure, through the installation of energy-efficient technologies, is a major approach to achieving sustainability. In practice, the viability of energy efficiency projects strongly depends on the cost reimbursement and profitability. These projects are subject to failure if the actual cost savings do not reimburse the project cost in a timely manner. In such cases, refinancing could be a solution to benefit from the long-term returns of the project if implemented wisely. However, very little is still known about the effect of refinancing options on financial performance of energy efficiency projects. To fill this gap, the present study investigates the financial behavior of energy efficiency projects with focus on refinancing options, such as Leveraged Loans. A System Dynamics (SD) model is introduced, and the model application is presented using an actual case-study data. The case study results indicate that while high-interest start-ups make using Leveraged Loan inevitable, refinancing can rescue the project and bring about profitability. This paper also presents some managerial implications of refinancing energy efficiency projects based on the case-study analysis. Results of this study help implementing financially viable energy efficiency projects, so the community could benefit from their environmental advantages widely.

Keywords: energy efficiency projects, leveraged loan, refinancing, sustainability

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2321 The Impact of the Interest Rates on Investments in the Context of Financial Crisis

Authors: Joanna Stawska

Abstract:

The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments

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2320 Analyzing the Investment Decision and Financing Method of the French Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Authors: Eliane Abdo, Olivier Colot

Abstract:

SMEs are always considered as a national priority due to their contribution to job creation, innovation and growth. Once the start-up phase is crossed with encouraging results, the company enters the phase of growth. In order to improve its competitiveness, maintain and increase its market share, the company is in the necessity even the obligation to develop its tangible and intangible investments. SMEs are generally closed companies with special and critical financial situation, limited resources and difficulty to access the capital markets; their shareholders are always living in a conflict between their independence and their need to increase capital that leads to the entry of new shareholder. The capital structure was always considered the core of research in corporate finance; moreover, the financial crisis and its repercussions on the credit’s availability, especially for SMEs make SME financing a hot topic. On the other hand, financial theories do not provide answers to capital structure’s questions; they offer tools and mode of financing that are more accessible to larger companies. Yet, SME’s capital structure can’t be independent of their governance structure. The classic financial theory supposes independence between the investment decision and the financing decision. Thus, investment determines the volume of funding, but not the split between internal or external funds. In this context, we find interesting to study the hypothesis that SMEs respond positively to the financial theories applied to large firms and to check if they are constrained by conventional solutions used by large companies. In this context, this research focuses on the analysis of the resource’s structure of SME in parallel with their investments’ structure, in order to highlight a link between their assets and liabilities structure. We founded our conceptual model based on two main theoretical frameworks: the Pecking order theory, and the Trade Off theory taking into consideration the SME’s characteristics. Our data were generated from DIANE database. Five hypotheses were tested via a panel regression to understand the type of dependence between the financing methods of 3,244 French SMEs and the development of their investment over a period of 10 years (2007-2016). The results show dependence between equity and internal financing in case of intangible investments development. Moreover, this type of business is constraint to financial debts since the guarantees provided are not sufficient to meet the banks' requirements. However, for tangible investments development, SMEs count sequentially on internal financing, bank borrowing, and new shares issuance or hybrid financing. This is compliant to the Pecking Order Theory. We, therefore, conclude that unlisted SMEs incur more financial debts to finance their tangible investments more than their intangible. However, they always prefer internal financing as a first choice. This seems to be confirmed by the assumption that the profitability of the company is negatively related to the increase of the financial debt. Thus, the Pecking Order Theory predictions seem to be the most plausible. Consequently, SMEs primarily rely on self-financing and then go, into debt as a priority to finance their financial deficit.

Keywords: capital structure, investments, life cycle, pecking order theory, trade off theory

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2319 The Causes of Governance Inefficiency in the Financial Institutions: An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Theory of Corporate Governance

Authors: Emilia Klepczarek

Abstract:

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the OECD found problems with the mechanisms of corporate governance as one of the major causes of destabilization of the financial system and the subprime crisis in the years 2007-2010. In response to these allegations, there were formulated a number of recommendations aimed at improving the quality of supervisory standards in financial institutions. They relate mainly to risk management, remuneration policy, the competence of managers and board members and transparency issues. Nevertheless, a review of the empirical research conducted by the author does not allow for an unambiguous confirmation of the positive impact of the postulated standards on the stability of banking entities. There is, therefore, a presumption of the existence of hidden variables determining the effectiveness of the governance mechanisms. According to the author, this involves concepts arising from behavioral economics and economic anthropology, which allow for an explanation of the effectiveness of corporate governance institutions on the basis of the socio-cultural profile of its members. The proposed corporate governance culture theory indicates that the attributes of the members of the organization and organizational culture can determine the different effectiveness level of the governance processes in similar formal corporate governance structures. The aim of the presentation is, firstly, to draw attention to the vast discrepancies existing within the results of research on the effectiveness of the standards of corporate governance in the banking sector. Secondly, the author proposes an explanation of these differences on the basis of governance theory breaking with common paradigms. The corporate governance culture theory is focused on the identity of the individual and the scope of autonomy offered within his or her institution. The coexistence of these two conditions - the adequate behavioral profile and enough freedom to decide - is a prerequisite for the efficient functioning of the institutions of corporate governance, which can contribute to rehabilitating and strengthening the stability of the financial sector.

Keywords: autonomy, corporate governance, efficiency, governance culture

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2318 Feasibility of BioMass Power Generation in Punjab Province of Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Ghaffar Doggar, Farah

Abstract:

The primary objective of this feasibility study is to conduct a techno-financial assessment for installation of biomass based power plant in Faisalabad division. The study involves identification of best site for power plant followed by an assessment of biomass resource potential in the area and propose power plant of suitable size. The study also entailed comprehensive supply chain analysis to determine biomass fuel pricing, transportation and storage. Further technical and financial analyses have been done for selection of appropriate technology for the power plant and its financial viability, respectively. The assessment of biomass resources and the subsequent technical analysis revealed that 20 MW biomass power plant could be implemented at one of the locations near Faisalabad city i.e. AARI Site, Near Chak Jhumra district Faisalabad, Punjab province. Three options for steam pressure; namely, 70 bar, 90 bar and 100 bar boilers have been considered. Using international experience and prices on power plant technology and local prices on locally available equipment, the study concludes biomass fuel price of around 50 US dollars (USD) per ton when delivered to power plant site. The electricity prices used for feasibility calculations were 0.13 USD per KWh for electricity from a locally financed project and 0.11 USD per KWh for internationally financed power plant. For local financing the most viable choice is the 70 bar solution and with international financing, the most feasible solution is using a 90 bar boiler. Between the two options, the internationally financed 90 bar boiler setup gives better financial results than the locally financed 70 bar boiler project. It has been concluded that 20 MW with 90 bar power plant and internationally financed would have an equity IRR of 23% and a payback period of 7 years. This will be a cheap option for installation of power plants.

Keywords: AARI, Ayub agriculture research institute, biomass - crops residue, KWh - electricity Units, MG - Muhammad Ghaffar

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2317 Predicting Relative Performance of Sector Exchange Traded Funds Using Machine Learning

Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

Abstract:

Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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2316 The Decision-Making Process of the Central Banks of Brazil and India in Regional Integration: A Comparative Analysis of MERCOSUR and SAARC (2003-2014)

Authors: Andre Sanches Siqueira Campos

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Central banks can play a significant role in promoting regional economic and monetary integration by strengthening the payment and settlement systems. However, close coordination and cooperation require facilitating the implementation of reforms at domestic and cross-border levels in order to benchmark with international standards and commitments to the liberal order. This situation reflects the normative power of the regulatory globalization dimension of strong states, which may drive or constrain regional integration. In the MERCOSUR and SAARC regions, central banks have set financial initiatives that could facilitate South America and South Asia regions to move towards convergence integration and facilitate trade and investments connectivities. This is qualitative method research based on a combination of the Process-Tracing method with Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). This research approaches multiple forms of data based on central banks, regional organisations, national governments, and financial institutions supported by existing literature. The aim of this research is to analyze the decision-making process of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) towards regional financial cooperation by identifying connectivity instruments that foster, gridlock, or redefine cooperation. The BCB and The RBI manage the monetary policy of the largest economies of those regions, which makes regional cooperation a relevant framework to understand how they provide an effective institutional arrangement for regional organisations to achieve some of their key policies and economic objectives. The preliminary conclusion is that both BCB and RBI demonstrate a reluctance to deepen regional cooperation because of the existing economic, political, and institutional asymmetries. Deepening regional cooperation is constrained by the interests of central banks in protecting their economies from risks of instability due to different degrees of development between countries in their regions and international financial crises that have impacted the international system in the 21st century. Reluctant regional integration also provides autonomy for national development and political ground for the contestation of Global Financial Governance by Brazil and India.

Keywords: Brazil, central banks, decision-making process, global financial governance, India, MERCOSUR, connectivity, payment system, regional cooperation, SAARC

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2315 A Study on How Insider Fraud Impacts FinTechs

Authors: Claire Norman-Maillet

Abstract:

Insider fraud is a major financial crime threat whereby an employee defrauds (or attempts to defraud) their current, prospective, or past employer. ‘Employee’ covers anyone employed by the company, including Board members and part-time staff. Insider fraud can take many forms, including an employee working alone or in collusion with others. Insider fraud has been on the rise since the Coronavirus pandemic and shows no signs of slowing. The objective of the research is to better understand how FinTechs are impacted by insider fraud and, therefore, how to stop it. This research will make an original contribution to the financial crime field, given the timing of this research being intertwined with the cost-of-living crisis in the UK and the global Coronavirus pandemic. This research focuses on insider fraud within FinTechs specifically, as they are arguably a modern phenomenon in the financial institutions space and have cutting-edge technology at their disposal. To achieve the research objective, the researcher held semi-structured interviews with over 20 individuals who deal with insider fraud perpetration in a practitioner, recruitment, or advisory capacity. The interviews were subsequently transcribed and analysed thematically. Main findings in the research suggest that FinTechs are arguably in the best position to combat insider fraud, given their focus on using recent technologies, as this can be used to combat the threat. However, insider fraud has been ignored owing to the denial of accepting the possibility that colleagues would defraud their employer, as well as the idea that external fraud is the most important threat. The research concludes that, whilst the technology is understandably prioritised by FinTechs for providing an agreeable customer experience, insider fraud needs to be given a platform upon which to be recognised as a significant threat to any company. Moreover, insider fraud needs to be given the same level of weighting and attention by Executive Committees and Boards as the customer experience.

Keywords: insider fraud, occupational fraud, COVID-19, COVID, Coronavirus, pandemic, internal fraud, financial crime, economic crime

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2314 Accounting Performance of the Leading Companies in the Construction Sector in Brazil during the Period 2009-2012

Authors: Fabrício José Piacente, Vanessa de Cillos Silva, Thiago Luiz Mello Melato

Abstract:

The construction industry has been demonstrating increased growth and importance in Brazil’s national economic development. This study aims to evaluate the financial performance of the leading companies in the construction sector in Brazil in the period from 2009 to 2012. An analysis is made of the capital structure, liquidity, and profitability of the six largest companies in the construction sector in Brazil: Brookfield, Cyrela, Gafisa, MRV, PDG and Rossi. The results are then compared with standard industry ratios. It was found that among the companies analyzed, MRV and Cyrela showed the best relative performance in the period under consideration.

Keywords: accounting ratios, construction, financial performance, Brazil

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2313 Nonstationarity Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series

Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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2312 The Opportunities and Challenges of Adopting International Financial Reporting Standards in Saudi Capital Market

Authors: Abdullah Almulhim

Abstract:

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) was established in 2001 to develop International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) that bring transparency, accountability, and efficiency to financial markets around the world. In addition, the IFRS provide a unified accounting language, which is especially important in the era of globalization. However, the establishment of a single set of high-quality international accounting standards is a matter of growing importance, as participants in the increasingly integrated world capital market demand comparability and transparency of financial reporting worldwide. Saudi Arabia became the 149th member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 December 2005, which has increased the need to convert to IFRS. Currently, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) requires banks and insurance companies in Saudi Arabia to report under IFRS Standards. However, until the end of 2016, SOCPA standards were applied to all other companies, listed and unlisted. From 2017, listed Saudi companies would be required to report under IFRS Standards as adopted by SOCPA effective 2017. This paper is to investigate the expected benefits gained and highlight the challenges faced by adopting IFRS by the listed companies in the Saudi Stock Exchange. Questionnaires were used as the main method of data collection. They were distributed to listed companies in the Saudi Capital Market. Data obtained through the questionnaires have been imported into SPSS statistical software for analysis. The expected results of this study will show the benefits of adopting IFRS by Saudi Listed Companies. However, this study will investigate the challenges faced by adopting IFRS by the listed companies in the Saudi Arabian Stock Market. Findings will be discussed later upon completion of initial analysis.

Keywords: challenges, IAS, IFRS, opportunities, Saudi, SOCPA

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2311 Factors Affecting Time Performance in Building Construction Projects

Authors: Ibraheem A. K. Mahameed

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to identify the risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 38 risks that might affect time performance of building construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. These risks have been classified into 6 groups: project, managerial, consultant, financial, external, and construction items. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered risks in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top five risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in Palestine are: award project to the lowest price, political situation, poor communication and coordination between construction parties, change orders, and financial status of contractor.

Keywords: delay, time performance, construction, building

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2310 Assessing the Financial Potential of an Agroforestry-Based Farming Practice in a Labor Scarce Subsistence Economy

Authors: Arun Dhakal, Rajesh Kumar Rai

Abstract:

Agroforestry is long practiced in Nepal as a means of subsistence livelihoods. Given its potential to climate change mitigation, this practice is being recommended as a climate-smart farming practice in the recent years. However, the financial attractiveness of this practice is not well-documented in a labor scarce economy such as Nepal. This study attempts to examine the financial suitability of an agroforestry-based farming practice in the present socio-economic context of Nepal where labor is in short supply. A total of 200 households were randomly selected for household surveys in Dhanusha district during April to July 2015. Two farming practices were found to be dominant in the study area: 1) conventional farming (field crops only) in which at least two field crops are annually grown, and 2) agroforestry-based farming (agroforest, home garden and field crops combined) practice (ABFP). The ABFP was found to be less labor intensive than the conventional farming (137 Man days/yr/ha vs 218 Man days/yr/ha). The ex-ante financial analysis indicated that both the farming practices generated positive NPVs (Net Present Values) and B/C (Benefit-Cost) ratios greater than one, indicating both are financially attractive farming enterprises under the base discount rate of 12%. However, the ABFP generated higher NPV and greater B/C ratio than the conventional farming, indicating the former was financially more attractive than the later. The sensitivity analysis showed that the conventional farming was more sensitive to change in labor wage rate than that of the ABFP. Up to the 24% discount rate, the ABFP generated higher NPV and in case of B/C ratio, the ratio was found greater for ABFP even in 50% discount rate.

Keywords: agroforestry, benefit-cost analysis, conventional farming, net present value

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2309 Entrepreneurship in Nigeria-Funding and Financing Strategies

Authors: Yusuf Abdullahi

Abstract:

The contribution of entrepreneurship in the economic development cannot be over-emphasized neither it should be underestimated for any reason as this is already a known fact that it plays an important role as a change agent and as a prime mover of economy. In developed or underdeveloped economy, the essence of entrepreneurship is highly significant as this exist in both private as well as public sectors of any economy. The roles of entrepreneurship are worldly acclaimed but yet as laudable as these roles there can be no significant success by any entrepreneur except with availability of finance. Nonetheless, mere availability of finance also cannot guarantee the success of an enterprise but there must be in place appropriate financial strategies for the funding/investment needs of an enterprise. Thus, little has been said when it comes to strategies needed to access various sources of finance. This paper, therefore, establishes appropriate strategies to obtain funds sources of finance by both small and as well as medium enterprises.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, Nigeria, financial strategies, economic development

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2308 Accountability Issues in Nigeria

Authors: Victoria Adikpe

Abstract:

The ills of the Nigerian public sector have been identified at various fora to include lack of financial accountability and poor reporting of government performance. With the enthronement of democracy, citizens’ expectations from the government are drifting from the mere provision of public services to efficiency and accountability. One of the major challenges to achieving accountability in Nigeria is the capability of the cash basis of accounting to meet the reporting requirements of policies and programmes of the government. This paper discussed the growing trend in the debate about the adoption of private sector financial management processes in the public sector as part of the public sector reform programmes. The paper does not claim the ultimate superiority of accrual over cash accounting but shows how it will help to further strengthen the quality of government accounting and reporting.

Keywords: cash accounting, accrual accounting, accountability, reporting

Procedia PDF Downloads 328