Search results for: background risk

Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Madan Khadka, Dhruba Uprety, Rubina Rai

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Background and objective: In 2011, around 273,465 women died worldwide during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after childbirth. Near-miss is recognized as the predictor of the level of care and maternal death. The objective of the study was to evaluate the associated risk factors of near-miss obstetric cases and maternal death. Material and Methods A Prospective Observational Study was done from August 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at BPKIHS hospital, tertiary care hospital in Eastern Nepal, Dharan. Case eligible by the 5-factor scoring system and WHO near miss criteria were evaluated. Risk factors included severe hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and a complication of abortion, ruptured uterus, medical/surgical condition and sepsis. Results: A total of 9,727 delivery were attended during the study period from August 2014 to June 2014. There were 6307 (71.5%) vaginal delivery and 2777(28.5%) caesarean section and 181 perinatal death with a total of 9,546 live birth. A total of 162 near miss was identified, and 16 maternal death occurred during the study. Maternal near miss rate of 16.6 per 1000 live birth, Women with life-threatening conditions (WLTC) of 172, Severe maternal outcome ratio of 18.64 per 1000 live birth, Maternal near-miss mortality ratio (MNM: 1 MD) 10.1:1, Mortality index (MI) of 8.98%. Risk factors were obstetric hemorrhage 27.8%, abortion/ectopic 27.2%, eclampsia 16%, medical/surgical condition 14.8%, sepsis 13.6%, severe preeclamsia 11.1%, ruptured uterus 3.1%, and molar pregnancy 1.9%. 19.75% were prim gravidae, with mean age 25.66 yrs, and cardiovascular and coagulation dysfunction as a major life threatening condition and sepsis (25%) was the major cause of mortality. Conclusion: Hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders are the leading causes of near miss event and sepsis as a leading cause of mortality. As near miss analysis indicates the quality of health care, it is worth presenting in national indices.

Keywords: abortion, eclampsia, hemorrhage, maternal mortility, near miss

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Authors: Sina Mahdavi

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Background and Objective: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common inflammatory autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) that affects the myelination process in the CNS. Complex interactions of various "environmental or infectious" factors may act as triggers in autoimmunity and disease progression. The association between viral infections, especially the John Cunningham virus (JCV) and MS is one potential cause that is not well understood. This study aims to summarize the available data on JCV infection in MS disease progression. Materials and Methods: For this study, the keywords "Multiple sclerosis", " John Cunningham virus ", and "central nervous system" in the databases PubMed, Google Scholar, Sid, and MagIran between 2019 and 2022 were searched, and 12 articles were chosen, studied, and analyzed. Results: MS patients are candidates for natalizumab therapy, which inhibits lymphocyte migration and increases the risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare lytic infection of glial cells caused by JCV. Oligodendrocytes may be the target of JCV infection in the central nervous system (CNS). Conclusion: There is a high expression of JCV during the natalizumab treatment period for MS patients, suggesting that the virus may play a role in the development of MS by inducing an inflammatory state. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate anti-JCV antibody serum as an important risk factor for the development of PML before deciding on the treatment course for these patients.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, John Cunningham virus, central nervous system, autoimmunity

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study focuses on early adolescent externalizing behavioral problems which specifically concentrate on rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the externalizing behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a hierarchical modeling method was used to explore the causal relations among background variables, breaking behavior variables and aggressive behavior variables.

Keywords: aggressive behavior, breaking behavior, early adolescence, externalizing problem

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Authors: Jaehong Kim, Sunhee Park, HongSeop Shin, Kyongho Lim, Suhyun Kwon, Don-Gyou Lee, Pureum Kim, Moojong Lim, JongSang Baek

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Transparent displays with OLEDs are the most commonly produced forms of see-through displays on the market or in development. In order to block the visual interruption caused by the light coming from the background, the special panel is combined with transparent displays with OLEDs. There is, however, few studies optical performance of operational shutter panel for transparent displays until now. This paper, therefore, describes the optical performance of operational shutter panels. The novel evaluation method was developed by measuring the amount of light which can form a transmitted background image. The new proposed method could tell how recognize transmitted background images cannot be seen, and is consistent with viewer’s perception.

Keywords: transparent display, operational shutter panel, optical performance, OLEDs

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Authors: Mahmoud Reza Tahamtan, Mohammad Saleh Bahreini

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Background and Purpose: Cystic echinococcosis, caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus, is a common parasitic infection of humans and is endemic in many parts of the world, including Iran. So that, one percent of those admitted to surgery departments are hydatid cyst patients, and using the ELISA method, the infection rate has been reported in different regions of Iran from 1.2% to 21.4%. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the seroepidemiology of human hydatid cysts in Fars province, southern Iran, by ELISA method. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 600 serum samples of persons who were referred to the laboratory of Nemazi Hospital in Shiraz for normal tests were examined for the presence of specific Anti-IgG antibodies to hydatid cysts by ELISA method. During the sampling, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain social data of individuals with determinants of risk factors for Cystic echinococcosis. Finally, the results of the ELISA test, along with demographic information completed by individuals, were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The average age of the subjects in this study was 40.01 ± 9.166. The prevalence of hydatidosis was reported as 5.66% (34/600). The disease was more in the age group of 21-30, people living in villages, working in rural areas, and people with a history of other parasitic diseases. Statistically, a significant difference was observed between the prevalence of the disease and two risk factors, contact with dogs (OR= 0.042; 95%CI: 0.014-0.12; P= 0.001) and washing vegetables with water (OR= 0.08; 95%CI: 0.011-0.56; P= 0.012). Conclusion: The present study showed that hydatid cyst disease has a significant prevalence in this area. Also, based on the results, contact with dogs and not properly washing vegetables are two important factors of disease transmission.

Keywords: Echinococcus granulosus, Cystic echinococcosis, hydatid cyst, Fars province

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Michal Kozubík, Svetlana Síthová

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Aim: Aim of this study is to introduce the method of instrumental enrichment to people who works in the helping professions, and show further possibilities of its realization with children from socially disadvantaged backgrounds into society. Methods: We focused on Feuerstein’s Instrumental Enrichment method, its theoretical grounds and practical implementation. We carried out questionnaires and directly observed children from the disadvantaged background in Partizánske district. Results: We outlined the issues of children from disadvantaged social environment and their opportunity of social integration using the method. The findings showed the utility of Feuerstein method. Conclusions: We conclude that Feuerstein methods are very suitable for children from socially disadvantaged background and importance of social workers and special educator co-operation.

Keywords: Feuerstein, inclusion, education, socially disadvantaged background

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Authors: Beenish Urooj, Ubaid Ullah, Sidra Riasat

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National Testing Service-Pakistan (NTS) is an agency in Pakistan that conducts student success appraisal examinations. In this research paper, we must present a security model for the NTS organization. The security model will depict certain security countermeasures for a better defense against certain types of breaches and system malware. We will provide a security roadmap, which will help the company to execute its further goals to maintain security standards and policies. We also covered multiple aspects in securing the environment of the organization. We introduced the processes, architecture, data classification, auditing approaches, survey responses, data handling, and also training and awareness of risk for the company. The primary contribution is the Risk Survey, based on the maturity model meant to assess and examine employee training and knowledge of risks in the company's activities.

Keywords: NTS, risk assessment, threat factors, security, services

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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Authors: Amani Waheed, Adel Mishriky, Rasha Farouk, Essam Abdallah, Sarah Hussein

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Background: Occupational stress plays a crucial role in professional drivers' health. They are exposed to high workloads, low physical activity, high demand and low decisions as well as poor lifestyle factors including poor diet, sedentary work, and smoking. Dyslipidemia is a well-established modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. Occupational stress and other forms of chronic stress have been associated with raised levels of atherogenic lipids. Although stress management has some evidence in improving lipid profile, the association between occupational stress and dyslipidemia is not clear. Objectives: To assess the relational between occupational stress and lipid profile among professional drivers. Methodology: A cross-sectional study conducted at a large company in Ismailia City, Egypt, where, 131 professional drivers divided into 44 car drivers, 43 bus drivers, and 44 truck drivers were eligible after applying exclusion criteria. Occupational stress index (OSI), non-occupational risk factors of dyslipidemia were assessed using interview structured questionnaire. Blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile were measured. Results: The mean of total OSI score was 79.98 ± 6.14. The total OSI score is highest among truck drivers (82.16 ± 4.62), then bus drivers (80.26 ± 6.02) and lowest among car drivers (77.55 ± 6.79) with statistically significant. Eighty percent had Dyslipidemia. The duration of driving hours per day, exposure to passive smoking and increased BMI were the risk factors. No statistical significance between Total OSI score and dyslipidemia. Using, logistic regression analysis, occupational stress, duration of driving hours per day, and BMI were positive significant predictors for dyslipidemia. Conclusion: Professional drivers are exposed to occupational stress. A high proportion of drivers have dyslipidemia. Total OSI score doesn't have statistically significant relation with dyslipidemia.

Keywords: body mass index, dyslipidaemia, occupational stress, professional drivers

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Risk management has been gaining extensive focus from international organizations like Committee of Sponsoring Organizations and Financial Stability Board, and, the foundation of such an effective and efficient risk management system lies in a strong risk governance structure. In view of this, an attempt (perhaps a first of its kind) has been made to develop a risk governance index, which could be used as proxy for quality of risk governance structures. The index (normative framework) is based on eleven variables, namely, size of board, board diversity in terms of gender, proportion of executive directors, executive/non-executive status of chairperson, proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, chief risk officer (CRO), risk management committee, mandatory committees, voluntary committees and existence/non-existence of whistle blower policy. These variables are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 with the exception of the variables, namely, status of chairperson and CEO duality (which have been scored on a dichotomous scale with the score of 3 or 5). In case there is a legal/statutory requirement in respect of above-mentioned variables and there is a non-compliance with such requirement a score of one has been envisaged. Though there is no legal requirement, for the larger part of study, in context of CRO, risk management committee and whistle blower policy, still a score of 1 has been assigned in the event of their non-existence. Recognizing the importance of these variables in context of risk governance structure and the fact that the study basically focuses on risk governance, the absence of these variables has been equated to non-compliance with a legal/statutory requirement. Therefore, based on this the minimum score is 15 and the maximum possible is 55. In addition, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of this index. For this purpose, the sample consists of non-financial companies (429) that constitute S&P CNX500 index. The study covers a 10 years period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015. Given the panel nature of data, Hausman test was applied, and it suggested that fixed effects regression would be appropriate. The results indicate that age and size of firms have significant positive impact on its risk governance structures. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of governance structures. In contrast, profitability (positive relationship), leverage (negative relationship) and growth (negative relationship) do not have significant impact on quality of risk governance structures. The value of rho indicates that about 77.74% variation in risk governance structures is due to firm specific factors. Given the fact that each firm is unique in terms of its risk exposure, risk culture, risk appetite, and risk tolerance levels, it appears reasonable to assume that the specific conditions and circumstances that a company is beset with, could be the biggest determinants of its risk governance structures. Given the recommendations put forth in the paper (particularly for regulators and companies), the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected aspect of risk management.

Keywords: corporate governance, ERM, risk governance, risk management

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Authors: Kaili Wang, Botao Zhang, Enming Zhang

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Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a common problem affecting athletes' training and competition. Although the association between a limited hip range of motion and prevalence of low back pain has been studied extensively, it has not been studied in table tennis. Aim: The main purposes of this study in table tennis players were (1) to investigate if there is a difference in hip internal rotation (HIR) and external rotation (HER) range of motion (ROM) between players with LBP and players without LBP and (2) to analyze the association between HIR and HER ROM and LBP. Methods: Forty-six table tennis players from the Chinese table tennis team were evaluated for passive maximum HIR and HER ROM. LBP was retrospectively recorded for the last 12 months before the date of ROM assessment by a physical therapist. The data were analyzed the difference in HIR and HER ROM between players with LBP and players without LBP by Mann-Whitney U test, and the association between the difference in HIR and HER ROM and LBP was analyzed via a binary logistic regression. Results: The 54% of players had developed LBP during the retrospective study period. Significant difference between LBP group and the asymptomatic group for HIR ROM (z=4.007, p<0.001) was observed. Difference between LBP group and asymptomatic group for HER ROM (z=1.117, p=0.264) was not significant. Players who had HIR ROM deficit had an increased risk of LBP compared with players without HIR ROM deficit (OR=5.344, 95%CI: 1.006-28.395, P=0.049). Conclusion: HIR ROM of a table tennis player with LBP was less than a table tennis player without LBP. Compared with player whose HIR ROM was normal, player who had HIR ROM deficit appeared to have a higher risk for LBP.

Keywords: assessment, injury prevention, low back pain, table tennis players

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study focused on early adolescent rule-breaking behavioral problems using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the rule-breaking behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a path analysis method was used to explore the correlational and causal relationships among background variables and breaking behavior variables.

Keywords: ASEBA, rule-breaking, path analysis, early adolescent

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Authors: Hossein Rassi, Alaheh Gholami Roud-Majany, Zahra Razavi, Massoud Hoshmand

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Cervical cancer is multi step disease that is thought to result from an interaction between genetic background and environmental factors. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the leading risk factor for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)and cervical cancer. In other hand, some of hTERT and miRNA polymorphism may plays an important role in carcinogenesis. This study attempts to clarify the relation of hTERT genotypes and miR-146a genotypes in cervical cancer. Forty two archival samples with cervical lesion retired from Khatam hospital and 40 sample from healthy persons used as control group. A simple and rapid method was used to detect the simultaneous amplification of the HPV consensus L1 region and HPV-16,-18, -11, -31, 33 and -35 along with the b-globin gene as an internal control. We use Multiplex PCR for detection of hTERT and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in our lab. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Cervix lesions were collected from 42 patients with Squamous metaplasia, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical carcinoma. Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99bp). According to the results, hTERT ( rs 2736098) GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of cervical cancer in the study population. In this study, we detected 13 HPV 18 from 42 cervical cancer. The connection between several SNP polymorphism and human virus papilloma in rare researches were seen. The reason of these differences in researches' findings can result in different kinds of races and geographic situations and also differences in life grooves in every region. The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype may effect cervical cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with HPV 18 genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of hTERT rs 2736098 genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in combination with HPV18 can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of cervical cancers. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer by vaccination against HPV18 in Iran.

Keywords: polymorphism of hTERT gene, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism, cervical cancer, virus

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Authors: Junaid Hamid Bhat

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Background: Musculoskeletal disorders are one of the main causes of occupational illness. Mechanisms and the factors like repetitive work, physical effort and posture, endangering the risk of musculoskeletal disorders would now appear to have been properly identified. Teacher’s exposure to work-related musculoskeletal disorders appears to be insufficiently described in the literature. Little research has investigated the prevalence and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders in teaching profession. Very few studies are available in this regard and there are no studies evident in India. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders and to identify and measure the association of such risk factors responsible for developing musculoskeletal disorders among school teachers. Methodology: An observational cross sectional study was carried out. 500 school teachers from primary, middle, high and secondary schools were selected, based on eligibility criteria. A signed consent was obtained and a self-administered, validated questionnaire was used. Descriptive statistics was used to compute the statistical mean and standard deviation, frequency and percentage to estimate the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders among school teachers. The data analysis was done by using SPSS version 16.0. Results: Results indicated higher pain prevalence (99.6%) among school teachers during the past 12 months. Neck pain (66.1%), low back pain (61.8%) and knee pain (32.0%) were the most prevalent musculoskeletal complaints of the subjects. Prevalence of shoulder pain was also found to be high among school teachers (25.9%). 52.0% subjects reported pain as disabling in nature, causing sleep disturbance (44.8%) and pain was found to be associated with work (87.5%). A significant association was found between musculoskeletal disorders and sick leaves/absenteeism. Conclusion: Work-related musculoskeletal disorders particularly neck pain, low back pain, and knee pain, is highly prevalent and risk factors are responsible for the development of same in school teachers. There is little awareness of musculoskeletal disorders among school teachers, due to work load and prolonged/static postures. Further research should concentrate on specific risk factors like repetitive movements, psychological stress, and ergonomic factors and should be carried out all over the country and the school teachers should be studied carefully over a period of time. Also, an ergonomic investigation is needed to decrease the work-related musculoskeletal disorder problems. Implication: Recall bias and self-reporting can be considered as limitations. Also, cause and effect inferences cannot be ascertained. Based on these results, it is important to disseminate general recommendations for prevention of work-related musculoskeletal disorders with regards to the suitability of furniture, equipment and work tools, environmental conditions, work organization and rest time to school teachers. School teachers in the early stage of their careers should try to adapt the ergonomically favorable position whilst performing their work for a safe and healthy life later. Employers should be educated on practical aspects of prevention to reduce musculoskeletal disorders, since changes in workplace and work organization and physical/recreational activities are required.

Keywords: work related musculoskeletal disorders, school teachers, risk factors funding, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Alicja Reuben, Amira Annabi

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In this paper, we explore the relationship between the selection of valuation techniques by investment banks and the banks’ risk perceptions and performance in the context of the theory of performativity. We use inferential statistics to study these relationships by building a unique dataset based on the disclosure of 12 investment banks’ 2012-2015 annual financial statements. Moreover, we create two constructs, namely intensity of use and risk perception. We measure the intensity of use as a frequency metric of how often a particular bank adopts valuation techniques for a particular asset or liability. We measure risk perception based on disclosed ranges of values for unobservable inputs. Our results are twofold: we find a significant negative correlation between (1) intensity of use and investment bank performance and (2) intensity of use and risk perception. These results indicate that a performative process takes place, and the valuation techniques are enacting their environment.

Keywords: language, linguistics, performativity, financial techniques

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors

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Authors: Charlotte K. Lee, Henrique R. N. Aguiar, Ralph Smith, James Baldock, Sam Botchey

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Background: Femoral neck stress fractures (FNSF) are uncommon, making up 1 to 7.2% of stress fractures in healthy subjects. FNSFs are prevalent in young women, military recruits, endurance athletes, and individuals with energy deficiency syndrome or female athlete triad. Presentation is often non-specific and is often misdiagnosed following the initial examination. There is limited research addressing the return–to–activity time after FNSF. Previous studies have demonstrated prognostic time predictions based on various imaging techniques. Here, (1) OxSport clinic FNSF practice standards are retrospectively reviewed, (2) FNSF cohort demographics are examined, (3) Regression models were used to predict return–to–activity prognosis and consequently determine bone stress risk factors. Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of FNSF attending Oxsport clinic between 01/06/2020 and 01/01/2020 were selected from the Rheumatology Assessment Database Innovation in Oxford (RhADiOn) and OxSport Stress Fracture Database (n = 14). (1) Clinical practice was audited against five criteria based on local and National Institute for Health Care Excellence guidance, with a 100% standard. (2) Demographics of the FNSF cohort were examined with Student’s T-Test. (3) Lastly, linear regression and Random Forest regression models were used on this patient cohort to predict return–to–activity time. Consequently, an analysis of feature importance was conducted after fitting each model. Results: OxSport clinical practice met standard (100%) in 3/5 criteria. The criteria not met were patient waiting times and documentation of all bone stress risk factors. Importantly, analysis of patient demographics showed that of the population with complete bone stress risk factor assessments, 53% were positive for modifiable bone stress risk factors. Lastly, linear regression analysis was utilized to identify demographic factors that predicted return–to–activity time [R2 = 79.172%; average error 0.226]. This analysis identified four key variables that predicted return-to-activity time: vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, femoral neck DEXA T value, and history of an eating disorder/disordered eating. Furthermore, random forest regression models were employed for this task [R2 = 97.805%; average error 0.024]. Analysis of the importance of each feature again identified a set of 4 variables, 3 of which matched with the linear regression analysis (vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, and femoral neck DEXA T value) and the fourth: age. Conclusion: OxSport clinical practice could be improved by more comprehensively evaluating bone stress risk factors. The importance of this evaluation is demonstrated by the population found positive for these risk factors. Using this cohort, potential bone stress risk factors that significantly impacted return-to-activity prognosis were predicted using regression models.

Keywords: eating disorder, bone stress risk factor, femoral neck stress fracture, vitamin D

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Authors: Adelakun O. Johnson

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The quest to mitigate the probable adverse effects of geopolitical risk on FDI inflows tends to result in more frequent changes in economic policies and, as a result, heightened policy uncertainty. In this regard, we extend the literature on the dynamics of FDI inflows to include the hypothesis of the possibility of geopolitical risk escalating the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on FDI inflows. To test the robustness of this hypothesis, we use the cases of different economic groups characterized by different levels of economic development and varying degrees of FDI confidence. Employing an ARDL-based dynamic panel data model that accounts for both non-stationarity and heterogeneity effects, we show result that suggests GPR and EPU retard the inflows of FDI in both economies but mainly in the short-run situation. In the long run, however, higher EPU not attributed to GPR is likely to boost the inflows of FDI rather than retarding, at least in the case of the G7 economy.

Keywords: FDI inflows, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, panel ARDL model

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Naime Boudemagh

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In this work, we aim to improve the detection performances of radar systems. To this end, we propose and analyze a novel censoring technique of undesirable samples, of priori unknown positions, that may be present in the environment under investigation. Therefore, we consider heterogeneous backgrounds characterized by the presence of some irregularities such that clutter edge transitions and/or interfering targets. The proposed detector, termed automatic censoring constant false alarm (AC-CFAR), operates exclusively in a Gaussian background. It is built to allow the segmentation of the environment to regions and switch automatically to the appropriate detector; namely, the cell averaging CFAR (CA-CFAR), the censored mean level CFAR (CMLD-CFAR) or the order statistic CFAR (OS-CFAR). Monte Carlo simulations show that the AC-CFAR detector performs like the CA-CFAR in a homogeneous background. Moreover, the proposed processor exhibits considerable robustness in a heterogeneous background.

Keywords: CFAR, automatic censoring, heterogeneous environments, radar systems

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Alina Smalinskiene Janina Petkeviciene, Jurate Klumbiene, Vilma Kriaucioniene, Vaiva Lesauskaite

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The worldwide prevalence of obesity has been increasing dramatically in the last few decades, and Lithuania is no exception. In 2012, every fifth adult (19% of men and 20.5 % of women) was obese and every third was overweight Association studies have highlighted the influence of SNPs in obesity, with particular focus on FTO rs9939609. Thus far, no data on the possible association of this SNP to obesity in the adult Lithuanian population has been reported. Here, for the first time, we demonstrate an association between the FTO rs9939609 homozygous AA genotype and increased BMI when compared to homozygous TT. Furthermore, a positive association was determined between the FTO rs9939609 variant and risk of metabolic syndrome. Background: This study aimed to examine the associations between the fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene rs9939609 variant with obesity and metabolic syndrome in Lithuanian adult population. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional health survey was carried out in randomly selected municipalities of Lithuania. The random sample was obtained from lists of 25–64 year-old inhabitants. The data from 1020 subjects were analysed. The rs9939609 SNP of the FTO gene was assessed using TaqMan assays (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). The Applied Biosystems 7900HT Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction System was used for detecting the SNPs. Results: The carriers of the AA genotype had the highest mean values of BMI and waist circumference (WC) and the highest risk of obesity. Interactions ‘genotype x age’ and ‘genotype x physical activity’ in determining BMI and WC were shown. Neither lipid and glucose levels, nor blood pressure were associated with the rs9939609 independently of BMI. In the age group of 25-44 years, association between the FTO genotypes and metabolic syndrome was found. Conclusion: The FTO rs9939609 variant was significantly associated with BMI and WC, and with the risk of obesity in Lithuanian population. The FTO polymorphism might have a greater influence on weight status in younger individuals and in subjects with a low level of physical activity.

Keywords: obesity metabolic syndrome, FTO gene, polymorphism, Lithuania

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 134