Search results for: TEDPIX; Tehran Stock Exchange; S&P 500 index; USA three-month Treasury bill rate; West Texas Intermediate oil

Authors: Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou, Yi-Ting Chen, Chen-Syuan Lin

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Soil water index obtained by tank model is now commonly used in soil and sand disaster alarm system in Japan. Comparing with the rainfall trigging index in Taiwan, the tank model is easy to predict the slope water content on large-scale landslide. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the threshold value of large-scale landslide using the soil water index Sixteen typhoons and heavy rainfall events, were selected to establish the, to relationship between landslide event and soil water index. Finally, the proposed threshold values for landslides on country road No.89 are suggested in this study. The study results show that 95% landslide cases occurred in soil water index more than 125mm, and 30% of the more serious slope failure occurred in the soil water index is greater than 250mm. Beside, this study speculates when soil water index more than 250mm and the difference value between second tank and third tank less than -25mm, it leads to large-scale landslide more probably.

Keywords: soil water index, tank model, landslide, threshold values

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Authors: Masoud Jabar Zadeh Mamaghani

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Employee empowerment is an effective technique for increasing employee productivity and utilizing their individual and group capacities toward organizational goals. Empowerment is a process that helps improve and enhance performance through the development and expansion of individuals' and teams' influence and capabilities. In other words, empowerment is a strategy for organizational development and flourishing. In this study, the relationship between training and employee empowerment was examined in addition to measuring the level of empowerment among the employees of Kowsar Tehran Insurance Agency. The research method used was a descriptive correlation, and the statistical population of the study included all official employees with a degree higher than a diploma in Kowsar Tehran Insurance Agency. Data related to training hours while serving employees were extracted from their educational certificates, and data related to employees' empowerment levels were obtained through interviews and questionnaires. The research results showed that the level of empowerment among the employees in this agency is higher than the average in all dimensions. However, no correlation was observed between their empowerment level and the training hours they completed while serving.

Keywords: employee empowerment, organizational development, training, insurance industry

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Authors: Ajit Kumar Behera, Saranya P., Sudhir Kumar, Krishnakumar A

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The stable isotope (δ¹⁸ O and δ²H) composition of groundwater of the coastal areas of Periyar and Mahanadi basins falling along East and West coast of India during North-East (NE) monsoon season have been studied. The east and west coast regions are surrounded by the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea respectively, which are considered to be the primary sources for precipitation over India. The major difference between the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea is that a number of large rivers feed the Bay of Bengal, whereas the Arabian Sea is fed by very few small rivers, resulting in enriched stable isotopic composition of the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal. Previous studies have reported depleted ratios of stable isotopes during Northeast monsoon along East and West coasts due to the influence of the Bay of Bengal moisture source. The isotopic composition of groundwater of the Mahanadi delta in the east coast region varies from -6.87 ‰ to -3.40 ‰ for δ¹⁸ O and -45.42 ‰ to -22.43‰ for δ²H. However, the groundwater of the Periyar basin in the west coast has enriched stable isotope value varying from -4.3‰ to -2.5 ‰ for δ¹⁸ O and for δ²H from -23.7 to -6.4 ‰ which is a characteristic of South-West monsoon season. This suggests the groundwater system of the Mahanadi delta and the Periyar basins are influenced by dissimilar moisture sources. The δ¹⁸ O and δ² H relationship (δ²H= 6.513 δ¹⁸ O - 1.39) and d-excess value (< 10) in the east coast region indicates the influence of NE monsoon implying the quick groundwater recharge after precipitation with significant amount of evaporation. In contrast, the δ¹⁸ O and δ²H regression line (δ²H= 8.408 δ¹⁸ O + 11.71) with high d-excess value (>10) in the west coast region implies delayed recharge due to SW monsoon. The observed isotopic enrichment in west coast suggests that NE winter monsoon rainfall does not replenish groundwater quick enough to produce isotopic depletion during the season.

Keywords: Arabian sea, bay of Bengal, groundwater, monsoon, stable isotope

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Authors: Mohsen Negmeddin

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Throughout their history, ancient Egyptians had known several kinds and types of boats, which were made from two main kinds of materials, the local one, as the dried papyrus reeds and the local tree trunks, the imported one, as the boats which were made from Lebanon cedar tree trunks. A varied using of these boats, as the fish hunting small boats, the transportation and trade boats "Cargo Boats", as well as the ceremonial boats, and the warfare boats. The research is intending for the last one, the warfare boats and the river/maritime battles since the beginning of ancient Egyptian civilization at the pre-historic era up till the end of the second intermediate period, to reveal the kinds and types of those fighting ships before establishing the Egyptian navy at the beginning of the New Kingdome (1550-1770 B.C). Two methods will follow at this research, the mention of names and titles of these ships through the texts (ancient Egyptian language) resources, and the depiction of it at the scenes.

Keywords: the warfare boats, the maritime battles, the pre-historic era, the second intermediate period

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Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

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In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

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Authors: Seyed Habib A. Rahmati, Parsa Fallah Sheikhlari, Morteza Musakhani

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This paper studies the structure of financial investment and efficiency on the subway would be created between Hashtgerd and Qazvin in Iran. Regarding ascending rate of transportation between Tehran and Qazvin which directly air pollution, it clearly implies to public transportation requirement between these two cities near Tehran. The railway transportation like subway can help each country to terminate traffic jam which has some advantages such as speed, security, non-pollution, low cost of public transport, etc. This type of transportation needs national infrastructures which require enormous investment. It couldn’t implement without leading and managing funds and investments properly. In order to response 'needs', clear norms or normative targets have to be agreed and obviously it is important to distinguish costs from investment requirements critically. Implementation phase affects investment requirements and financing needs. So recognizing barrier related to investment and the quality of investment (what technologies and services are invested in) is as important as the amounts of investment. Different investment methods have mentioned as follows loan, leasing, equity participation, Line of financing, finance, usance, bay back. Alternatives survey before initiation and analyzing of risk management is one of the most important parts in this project. Observation of similar project cities each country has the own specification to choose investment method.

Keywords: subway project, project investment, project contract, project management

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Authors: Wenjin Zhu, Ian E. Jacobs, Henning Sirringhaus

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This project delves into the efficiency of uniaxial alignment and ion exchange doping as methods to optimize the thermoelectric properties of organic polymers. The anisotropic nature of charge transport in conjugated polymers is capitalized upon through the uniaxial alignment of polymer backbones, ensuring charge transport is streamlined along these backbones. Ion exchange doping has demonstrated superiority over traditional molecular and electrochemical doping methods, amplifying charge carrier densities. By integrating these two techniques, we've observed marked improvements in the thermoelectric attributes of specific conjugated polymers such as PBTTT and DPP based polymers. We demonstrate respectable power factors of 172.6 μW m⁻¹ K⁻² in PBTTT system and 41.7 μW m⁻¹ K⁻² in DPP system.

Keywords: organic electronics, thermoelectrics, uniaxial alignment, ion exchange doping

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Authors: Kaveh Shahi, Helmi Z. M. Shafri, Ebrahim Taherzadeh

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In remote sensing, shadow causes problems in many applications such as change detection and classification. It is caused by objects which are elevated, thus can directly affect the accuracy of information. For these reasons, it is very important to detect shadows particularly in urban high spatial resolution imagery which created a significant problem. This paper focuses on automatic shadow detection based on a new spectral index for multispectral imagery known as Shadow Detection Index (SDI). The new spectral index was tested on different areas of World-View 2 images and the results demonstrated that the new spectral index has a massive potential to extract shadows effectively and automatically.

Keywords: spectral index, shadow detection, remote sensing images, World-View 2

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Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

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Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alzeban

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This study examines whether internal audit function is indeed greater when audit committee members have industry expertise combined with auditing expertise. Data from a survey of 64 chief internal auditors from companies registered on the Saudi Stock Exchange TADAWL, provides results that suggest that when audit committee members possess both industry expertise and auditing expertise, the committee’s role in improving the quality of internal audit is enhanced. This outcome is concluded as one that can be generalized beyond the Saudi Arabian context.

Keywords: internal audit, audit committee, industry expertise, function

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Authors: Farah Kanani

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Blue Tide Environmental is a company focused on developing a network of used motor oil recycling facilities across the U.S. They initiated the redesign of its recycling plant in Texas, and aimed to establish an updated carbon footprint of re-refined used motor oils compared to an equivalent product derived from virgin stock that is not re-refined. The aim was to quantify emissions savings of a circular alternative to conventional end-of-life combustion of used motor oil (UMO). To do so, they mandated an ISO-compliant carbon footprint, utilizing complex models requiring geographical and temporal accuracy to accommodate the U.S. refinery market. The quantification of linear and circular flows, proxies for fuel substitution and system expansion for multi-product outputs were all critical methodological choices and were tested through sensitivity analyses. The re-refined system consisted of continuous recycling of UMO and thus, end-of-life is considered non-existent. The unique perspective to this topic will be from a life cycle i.e. holistic one and essentially demonstrate using this example of how a cradle-to-cradle model can be used to quantify a comparative carbon footprint. The intended audience is lubricant manufacturers as the consumers, motor oil industry professionals and other industry members interested in performing a cradle-to-cradle modeling.

Keywords: circularity, used motor oil, re-refining, systems expansion

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

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Authors: Naima Fatehi

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The paper reports on 107 medicinal plants, traditionally used in the South-West of Algeria (Bechar region). The information has been documented by interviewing traditional herbalists, various elderly men and women following different ethnobotanical methods. Ethnobotanical data was arranged alphabetically by botanical name, followed by family name, vernacular name, and part used. The present paper represents significant ethnobotanical information on medical plants used extensively in Bechar region for treating various diseases and provides baseline data for future pharmacological and phytochemical studies.

Keywords: medicinal plants, ethnobotanical survey, South-West Algeria, Bechar region

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Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

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This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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Authors: Luc Conti, Dimitry Dumont-Fillon, Harald van Lintel, Eric Chappel

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Flow control valves comprise a silicon flexible membrane that deflects against a substrate, usually made of glass, containing pillars, an outlet hole, and anti-stiction features. However, there is a strong interest in using silicon instead of glass as substrate material, as it would simplify the process flow by allowing the use of well controlled anisotropic etching. Moreover, specific devices demanding a bending of the substrate would also benefit from the inherent outstanding mechanical strength of monocrystalline silicon. Unfortunately, direct Si-Si bonding is not easily achieved with highly structured wafers since residual stress may prevent the good adhesion between wafers. Using a thermoplastic polymer, such as parylene, as intermediate layer is not well adapted to this design as the wafer-to-wafer alignment is critical. An alternative anodic bonding method using an intermediate borosilicate layer has been successfully tested. This layer has been deposited onto the silicon substrate. The bonding recipe has been adapted to account for the presence of the SOI buried oxide and intermediate glass layer in order not to exceed the breakdown voltage. Flow control valves dedicated to infusion of viscous fluids at very high pressure have been made and characterized. The results are compared to previous data obtained using the standard anodic bonding method.

Keywords: anodic bonding, evaporated glass, flow control valve, drug delivery

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Authors: Nana Weng

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Localization in the aspect of human resource means more diversity and more opportunities. The main purpose of this article is to identify the perception of local employees and intermediate managers (non-Japanese) and figure out exploratory factors which have been contributing and blocking the level of localization in the aspect of human resource management by using EFA (Exploratory Factors Analysis). Questionnaires will be designed for local employees and managers to inquire about the perceptions of regulations and implementation regarding recruitment, training and development, promotion and rewarding. The study finds that Japanese firms have worked well in the process of localization, especially in hiring and training local staffs in Taiwan. The significance of this study lies in paying more attention to the perception of local employees and intermediate managers regarding localization rather than interviews results from Japanese expatriates or top HR managers who are in charging of localization policy-making.

Keywords: Japanese firms in Taiwan, localization of human resources, exploratory factors analysis, local employees and intermediate managers

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Authors: Hesham A. Khalek, Shafik S. Khoury, Remon F. Aziz, Mohamed A. Hakam

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Slipforming operation’s linearity is a source of planning complications, and operation is usually subjected to bottlenecks at any point, so careful planning is required in order to achieve success. On the other hand, Discrete-event simulation concepts can be applied to simulate and analyze construction operations and to efficiently support construction scheduling. Nevertheless, preparation of input data for construction simulation is very challenging, time-consuming and human prone-error source. Therefore, to enhance the benefits of using DES in construction scheduling, this study proposes an integrated module to establish a framework for automating the generation of time schedules and decision support for Slipform construction projects, particularly through the project feasibility study phase by using data exchange between project data stored in an Intermediate database, DES and Scheduling software. Using the stored information, proposed system creates construction tasks attribute [e.g. activities durations, material quantities and resources amount], then DES uses all the given information to create a proposal for the construction schedule automatically. This research is considered a demonstration of a flexible Slipform project modeling, rapid scenario-based planning and schedule generation approach that may be of interest to both practitioners and researchers.

Keywords: discrete-event simulation, modeling, construction planning, data exchange, scheduling generation, EZstrobe

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Authors: Viktória Sugár, Attila Talamon, András Horkai, Michihiro Kita

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The dense urban fabric of the Budapest 7th district is known as the former Jewish Quarter. The majority of the historical building stock contains multi-story tenement houses with courtyards, built around the end of the 19^th century. Various rehabilitation and urban planning attempt occurred until today, mostly left unfinished. Present paper collects the past rehabilitation plans, actions and their effect which took place in the former Jewish District of Budapest. The authors aim to assess the boundaries of a complex building stock rehabilitation, by taking into account the monument protection guidelines. As a main focus of the research, structural as well as energetic rehabilitation possibilities are analyzed in case of each building by using Geographic Information System (GIS) methods.

Keywords: geographic information system, Hungary, Jewish Quarter, monument, protection, rehabilitation

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Authors: Alaa H. J. Al-Rkaby, A. Chegenizadeh, H. R. Nikraz

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The technique of reinforcing soil is an efficient, reliable and cost-effective alternative way for improving the performance of soil in civil engineering applications. Despite the anisotropic states of stresses induced within soil elements by many geotechnical structures such as footings, highways and offshore, most of the previous studies have been carried out under isotropic conditions. The anisotropic stress state in term of the inclined principal stress and the inequality of the intermediate and minor principal stresses cannot be investigated using conventional devices. Therefore, the advanced hollow cylinder apparatus, used in this work, provides a great opportunity to simulate such anisotropic stress states. To date, very little consideration has been given to how the direction of principal stress α and intermediate principal stress ratio b can affect the performance of the reinforced sand. This study presented that the anisotropic conditions of α and b resulted in significant variations in the deviator stress and volumetric strain of sand reinforced with geosynthetics. Anisotropic effect has been decreased by adding clay content.

Keywords: anisotropy, reinforced sand, direction of principal stress, intermediate principal stress ratio

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Authors: Koustav Pal, Indranil Das

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In recent times, perovskite and double perovskite (DP) systems attracts lot of interest as they provide a rich material platform for studying emergent functionalities like near-room-temperature ferromagnetic (FM) insulators, exchange bias (EB), magnetocaloric effects, colossal magnetoresistance, anisotropy, etc. These interesting phenomena emerge because of complex couplings between spin, charge, orbital, and lattice degrees of freedom in these systems. Various magnetic phenomena such as exchange bias, spin glass, memory effect, colossal magneto-resistance, etc. can be modified and controlled through antisite (B-site) disorder or controlling oxygen concentration of the material. By controlling oxygen concentration in SrFe0.5Co0.5O3 – δ (SFCO) (δ ∼ 0.3), we achieve intrinsic exchange bias effect with a large exchange bias field (∼1.482 Tesla) and giant coercive field (∼1.454 Tesla). Now we modified the B-site by introducing 10% iridium in the system. This modification give rise to the exchange bias field as high as 1.865 tesla and coercive field 1.863 tesla. Our work aims to investigate the effect of oxygen deficiency and B-site effect on exchange bias in oxide materials for potential technological applications. Structural characterization techniques including X-ray diffraction, scanning tunneling microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy were utilized to determine crystal structure and particle size. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy was used to identify valence states of the ions. Magnetic analysis revealed that oxygen deficiency resulted in a large exchange bias due to a significant number of ionic mixtures. Iridium doping was found to break interaction paths, resulting in various antiferromagnetic and ferromagnetic surfaces that enhance exchange bias.

Keywords: coercive field, disorder, exchange bias, spin glass

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Authors: Rhisan Mae Enriquez-Morales

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The primary concern of this study is to answer the question: How does the Philippine government formulate its foreign policy with respect to its territorial claims over areas in the West Philippine Sea after the Scarborough standoff in April 2012? Specifically, the study seeks to provide understanding on the political process in the formulation of foreign policy relating to the Philippine claims in the West Philippine Sea after the 2012 Scarborough Standoff, by looking into the relationship of bureaucracies and how it influences the decision-making process. Secondly, this study aims to determine the long and short term foreign policies of the Philippines with respect to its territorial claims over the West Philippine Sea. Lastly, this study seeks to determine the implication of Philippine foreign policy in settling the West Philippine Sea dispute on the country’s national security. The Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM) in Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) is the framework utilized in this study, which focuses primarily on the relationship of bureaucracies in the formulation of foreign policy and how these agencies influence the process of foreign policy formulation. The findings of this study reveal that: first, the Philippines foreign policy in the West Philippine Sea continues to develop to address current developments in the WPS. Second, as the government requires demilitarization there is a shift from traditional to non-traditional security approach. This shift caused inconvenience from the defense sector particularly the Navy thinking that they are being deprived of their traditional roles. Lastly, the Philippine government’s greater emphasis on internal security operation implies the need to reassess its security concerns and look into territorial security.

Keywords: bureaucratic politics model, foreign policy analysis, security, West Philippine sea

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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The relation between stock price volatility and trading volume represents a controversial issue which has received a remarkable attention over the past decades. In fact, an extensive literature shows a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume in the financial markets, but the causal relationship which originates such association is an open question, from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In this regard, various models, which can be considered as complementary rather than competitive, have been introduced to explain this relationship. They include the long debated Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH); the Sequential Arrival of Information Hypothesis (SAIH); the Dispersion of Beliefs Hypothesis (DBH); the Noise Trader Hypothesis (NTH). In this work, we analyze whether stock market efficiency can explain the diversity of results achieved during the years. For this purpose, we propose an alternative measure of market efficiency, based on the pointwise regularity of a stochastic process, which is the Hurst–H¨older dynamic exponent. In particular, we model the stock market by means of the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) that displays the property of a time-changing regularity. Mostly, such models have in common the fact that they locally behave as a fractional Brownian motion, in the sense that their local regularity at time t0 (measured by the local Hurst–H¨older exponent in a neighborhood of t0 equals the exponent of a fractional Brownian motion of parameter H(t0)). Assuming that the stock price follows an mBm, we introduce and theoretically justify the Hurst–H¨older dynamical exponent as a measure of market efficiency. This allows to measure, at any time t, markets’ departures from the martingale property, i.e. from efficiency as stated by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This approach is applied to financial markets; using data for the SP500 index from 1978 to 2017, on the one hand we find that when efficiency is not accounted for, a positive contemporaneous relationship emerges and is stable over time. Conversely, it disappears as soon as efficiency is taken into account. In particular, this association is more pronounced during time frames of high volatility and tends to disappear when market becomes fully efficient.

Keywords: volume–volatility relationship, efficient market hypothesis, martingale model, Hurst–Hölder exponent

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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Authors: Guoyu Lin

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This paper explores the role investor sentiment plays in the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion and stock returns. With short sale constraints, stock prices are determined by the optimistic investors. During the high sentiment periods when investors suffer more from psychological bias, there are more optimistic investors. This is the first paper to document that following the high sentiment periods, stocks with the most analyst forecast dispersion are overpriced, earning significantly negative returns, while those with the least analyst forecast dispersion are not overpriced as the degree of belief dispersion is low. However, following the low sentiment periods, both are not overpriced. A portfolio which longs the least dispersed stocks and shorts the most dispersed stocks yields significantly positive returns only following the high sentiment periods. My findings can potentially reconcile the puzzling risk effect and mispricing effect in the literature. The risk (mispricing) effect suggests a positive (negative) relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future stock returns. Presumably, the magnitude of the mispricing effect depends on the proportion of irrational investors and their bias, which is positively related to investor sentiment. During the high sentiment period, the mispricing effect takes over and the overall effect is negative. During the low sentiment period, the percentage of irrational investors is mediate, and the mispricing effect and the risk effect counter each other, leading to insignificant relation.

Keywords: analyst forecast dispersion, short-sale constraints, investor sentiment, stock returns

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Authors: Z. H. Shi, T. J. Dou, H. Zhang, H. X. Huang, N. Zeng

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The contamination of significant quantities of soils and sediments with uranium and other actinide elements as a result of nuclear activity poses many environmental risks. The electrokinetic process is one of the most promising remediation techniques for sludge, sediment, and saturated or unsaturated soils contaminated with heavy metals and radionuclides. However, secondary waste is a major concern for soil contaminated with nuclides. To minimize the generation of secondary wastes, this study used the anion and cation exchange membranes to improve the performance of the experimental apparatus. Remediation experiments of uranium-contaminated soil were performed with different agents. The results show that using acetic acid and EDTA as chelating agents clearly enhances the migration ability of the uranium. The ion exchange membranes (IEMs) used in the experiments not only reduce secondary wastes, but also, keep the soil pH stable.

Keywords: electrokinetic remediation, ion exchange membranes, soil, uranium

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Authors: Olusegun Paul Adesanya, Oluwatomilade Olominu, Olusegun Idowu

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This study investigates new dangers that West African migrants travelling through the Sahara Desert to Europe contend with. COVID-19 has left an unprecedented impact on all aspects of global politics, migration inclusive. In turn, limitations to migration have drastically increased, especially the stricter visa application measures set by European countries. This intensified attempts at crisscrossing the desert to Europe. In turn, several migrants used the Sahara as the highway to Europe. While some persons successfully travelled through the desert-scape, several others were unsuccessful. Notwithstanding the negative experiences of previous migrants, several other nationals across the region have plans to travel through the desert to Europe. As such, this study employs a mixed method of research reliant on qualitative and quantitative methods of data gathering and analysis. The study holds that there are new dangers to the aspirations of West Africans travelling to Europe through the Sahara and the Mediterranean Sea.

Keywords: migrants, Sahara Desert, West Africa, crisscrossing, dangers, irregular migration

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Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

Abstract:

Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Nidal H. Abu-Zahra, Subhashini Gunashekar

Abstract:

Polyurethane foam is functionalized with Sulfonic acid groups to remove lead ions (Pb2+) from drinking water through a action exchange process. The synthesis is based on addition polymerization of the -NCO groups of an isocyanine with the –OH groups of a polio to form the urethane. Toluene-diisocyanateis reacted with Polypropylene glycol to form a linear pre-polymer, which is further polymerized using a chain extender, N, N-bis(2-hydorxyethyl)-2-aminoethane-sulfonic acid (BES). BES acts as a functional group site to exchange Pb2+ ions. A set of experiments was designed to study the effect of various processing parameters on the performance of the synthesized foam. The maximum Pb2+ ion exchange capacity of the foam was found to be 47ppb/g from a 100ppb Pb2+ solution over a period of 60 minutes. A multistage batch filtration process increased the lead removal to 50-54ppb/3g of foam over a period of 90 minutes.

Keywords: adsorption, functionalized, ion exchange, polyurethane, sulfonic

Procedia PDF Downloads 235

Authors: Viktória Sugár, Zoltán Laczó, András Horkai, Gyula Kiss, Attila Talamon

Abstract:

The majority of the building stock of Budapest inner districts was built around the turn of the 19^th and 20^th century. Although the structural stability of the buildings is not questioned, as the load bearing structures are in sufficient state, the secondary structures are aged, resulting unsatisfactory energetic state. The renovation of these historical buildings requires special methodology and technology: their ornamented facades and custom-made fenestration cannot be insulated or exchanged with conventional solutions without damaging the heritage values. The present paper aims to introduce and systematize the possible technological solutions for heritage respecting energy retrofit in case of a historical residential building stock. Through case study, the possible energy saving potential is also calculated using multiple renovation scenarios.

Keywords: energy efficiency, heritage, historical building, renovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 283