Search results for: peace water pipeline project
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13426

Search results for: peace water pipeline project

8176 Identification of Suitable Rainwater Harvesting Sites Using Geospatial Techniques with AHP in Chacha Watershed, Jemma Sub-Basin Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Authors: Abrha Ybeyn Gebremedhn, Yitea Seneshaw Getahun, Alebachew Shumye Moges, Fikrey Tesfay

Abstract:

Rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia has failed to produce enough food, to achieve the increasing demand for food. Pinpointing the appropriate site for rainwater harvesting (RWH) have a substantial contribution to increasing the available water and enhancing agricultural productivity. The current study related to the identification of the potential RWH sites was conducted at the Chacha watershed central highlands of Ethiopia which is endowed with rugged topography. The Geographic Information System with Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to generate the different maps for identifying appropriate sites for RWH. In this study, 11 factors that determine the RWH locations including slope, soil texture, runoff depth, land cover type, annual average rainfall, drainage density, lineament intensity, hydrologic soil group, antecedent moisture content, and distance to the roads were considered. The overall analyzed result shows that 10.50%, 71.10%, 17.90%, and 0.50% of the areas were found under highly, moderately, marginally suitable, and unsuitable areas for RWH, respectively. The RWH site selection was found highly dependent on a slope, soil texture, and runoff depth; moderately dependent on drainage density, annual average rainfall, and land use land cover; but less dependent on the other factors. The highly suitable areas for rainwater harvesting expansion are lands having a flat topography with a soil textural class of high-water holding capacity that can produce high runoff depth. The application of this study could be a baseline for planners and decision-makers and support any strategy adoption for appropriate RWH site selection.

Keywords: runoff depth, antecedent moisture condition, AHP, weighted overlay, water resource

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8175 Comparative Study on the Thickening/Viscosity of Ogbono Seed Powder from Irvingia gabonenesis and Irvingia wombolu Species

Authors: Orlando Ketebu

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Ogbono seed is the seed obtained from African bush mango (Irvingia gabonenesis) and bitter bush mango (Irvingia wombolu). Irvingia gabonenesis is known for its sweet edible pulp while Irvingia wombolu has a bitter pulp. Their seed powder is used in cooking soup known as ogbono soup in Nigeria and in West Africa. The powder thickens when cooked and researches have shown that it has medicinal uses such as lowering cholesterol; aiding weight loss and helps in improving diabetes control. The nutritional composition of the seeds indicated that Irvingia gabonenesis contains 8.60% protein, 13.8% carbohydrate, 2.0% moisture, 1.5% crude fiber, 16.4% ash, and Irvingia wombolu contains 7.38% protein, 25.75% carbohydrate, 11.7% moisture, 0.84% crude fiber, 2.50% ash. Solvent extraction of these seeds has shown that the seed of the two species are oil seeds with approximately 70 % and 52 % for Irvingia gabonenesis and Irvingia wombolu respectively. One major setback using ogbono seed powder in cooking soup is identifying the specie of ogbono seed powder that thickens most within the same cooking condition and how temperature affects the thickness of ogbono seed powder which determines its viscosity and in turn affects the quality of the soup and its nutrients. This research work monitored how the viscosity of ogbono species after being sun dried for one week changes with temperature. The result showed that heating 20 grams of powdered Irvingia gabonenesis and Irvingia wombolu at 30 OC, 45 OC, 55 OC, 65 OC, 75 OC, 85 OC and 95OC respectively in 200 ml beaker mixed with 100 ml of water, the viscosity of both species decreases with increase temperature with Irvingia wombolu having higher average viscosity in Pascal seconds (Pa.s) of 1.059, 1.042, 0.961, 0.778, 0.684, 0.675, and 0.495 at 30 OC, 45 OC, 55 OC, 65 OC, 75 OC, 85 OC and 95 OC respectively compared to Irvingia gabonenesis with result 0.982, 0.920, 0.720, 0.646, 0.597 and 0.446 at 30 OC, 45 OC, 55 OC, 65 OC, 75 OC, 85 OC and 95 OC respectively. Also from the experiment carried out it was found out that the viscosity of both species decreases with ageing of the seeds and the quantity of ogbono seed powder used and amount of water added also affected the viscosity of both species. In conclusion, it was observed that under the same cooking conditions (temperature range, quantity of water added, time and quantity of ogbono seed powder used), Irvingia wombolu had higher viscosity which is a measure of its thickness and quality of nutrients compared to Irvingia gabonenesis and the viscosity of both species decreases with increasing temperature.

Keywords: ogbono seed powder, temperature, viscosity , soup

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8174 An Energy and Economic Comparison of Solar Thermal Collectors for Domestic Hot Water Applications

Authors: F. Ghani, T. S. O’Donovan

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Today, the global solar thermal market is dominated by two collector types; the flat plate and evacuated tube collector. With regards to the number of installations worldwide, the evacuated tube collector is the dominant variant primarily due to the Chinese market but the flat plate collector dominates both the Australian and European markets. The market share of the evacuated tube collector is, however, growing in Australia due to a common belief that this collector type is ‘more efficient’ and, therefore, the better choice for hot water applications. In this study, we investigate this issue further to assess the validity of this statement. This was achieved by methodically comparing the performance and economics of several solar thermal systems comprising of; a low-performance flat plate collector, a high-performance flat collector, and an evacuated tube collector coupled with a storage tank and pump. All systems were simulated using the commercial software package Polysun for four climate zones in Australia to take into account different weather profiles in the study and subjected to a thermal load equivalent to a household comprising of four people. Our study revealed that the energy savings and payback periods varied significantly for systems operating under specific environmental conditions. Solar fractions ranged between 58 and 100 per cent, while payback periods range between 3.8 and 10.1 years. Although the evacuated tube collector was found to operate with a marginally higher thermal efficiency over the selective surface flat plate collector due to reduced ambient heat loss, the high-performance flat plate collector outperformed the evacuated tube collector on thermal yield. This result was obtained as the flat plate collector possesses a significantly higher absorber to gross collector area ratio over the evacuated tube collector. Furthermore, it was found for Australian regions operating with a high average solar radiation intensity and ambient temperature, the lower performance collector is the preferred choice due to favorable economics and reduced stagnation temperature. Our study has provided additional insight into the thermal performance and economics of the two prevalent solar thermal collectors currently available. A computational investigation has been carried out specifically for the Australian climate due to its geographic size and significant variation in weather. For domestic hot water applications were fluid temperatures between 50 and 60 degrees Celsius are sought, the flat plate collector is both technically and economically favorable over the evacuated tube collector. This research will be useful to system design engineers, solar thermal manufacturers, and those involved in policy to encourage the implementation of solar thermal systems into the hot water market.

Keywords: solar thermal, energy analysis, flat plate, evacuated tube, collector performance

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8173 Factors Affecting Implementation of Construction Health and Safety Regulations, Their Effects and Mitigation Measures in Building Construction Project Sites of Hawassa City

Authors: Tadewos Awugchew Wudineh

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Health and safety issues have always been a major problem and concern in the building construction industry. The health and safety regulations are stated to eliminate the potential hazards and to reduce the consequential risks. However, the importance of the regulations seems to be overlooked in building construction sites of Hawassa City. Accordingly, many companies don’t follow the regulations as construction workers are more likely to be injured and killed by construction accident than any other type of employment. This paper aimed to identify factors that affect the implementation of construction health and safety regulations, their effects and mitigation measures in building construction project sites of Hawassa City. To reach this objective, a review of literature as well as the Ethiopian construction health and safety regulations have been undertaken. Mainly a five-point Likert scale questionnaire was distributed, and statistical analysis was used to summarize, interpret the data, and to find the significances of the responses. In addition, interviews were carried out. Accordingly, the findings indicate that the top factors which affect the implementation of CHS regulations are, availability and development of a clear health and safety policy, health and safety inspections by top management, conducting health and safety training and orientation, provision of healthy and safe working environment and employment of trained safety officers. The study revealed that implementation or non-implementation of CHS regulations have effects on the worker’s productivity, job satisfaction, rate of accidents, and cost greatly. Thus, the suggestion to minimize the impact on worker’s job performance are, developing of a clear health and safety policy, management commitment towards implementation of health and safety regulations, health and safety education and training and conducting regular health and safety inspections. It was concluded from the study that good implementation of health and safety regulations are the results from administrative and management commitment which calls for more attention to be paid to improve the implementation of CHS regulations in building construction sites of Hawassa City.

Keywords: construction health and safety regulations, effects, factors, mitigation

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8172 Photocatalytic Degradation of Lead from Aqueous Solution Using TiO2 as Adsorbent

Authors: Navven Desai, Veena Soraganvi

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Heavy metals such as lead, cadmium and mercury do not have biological significance hence they are known to be extremely toxic heavy metals. Water contains various heavy metals like Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Nickel (Ni), Arsenic (As), Lead (Pb), and Zinc (Zn) etc., when it gets polluted with industrial waste water. These heavy metals cause various health effects even at low concentration when consumed by humans. Most of the heavy metals are poisonous to living organisms. Heavy metals are non-degradable and are preserved in the environment through bioaccumulation. Therefore removal of heavy metals from water is necessary. In recent years, a great deal of attentions has been focused on to the application of nanosized metal oxides to treat heavy metals, especially titanium oxides, ferric oxides, manganese oxides, aluminium oxides and magnesium oxides as adsorbent and photocatalyst. TiO2 based photocatalysts have attracted continuously increasing attention because of the excellent properties such as high light -conversion efficiency, chemical stability, nontoxic nature, low cost. The catalyst displays high photocatalytic activity because of its large surface area. In this study, the photocatalytic degradation of Lead (Pb) from aqueous solution was investigated in natural sunlight by using TiO2 as Nanomaterial. This study was performed at laboratory scale. All the experiments were carried out in the batch process. The concentration of lead was constant (25mg/lit) in the experiment and effect of titanium dioxide dose and pH were varied to study the removal efficiency of the lead by adsorption. Further study was performed on the dependence of photocatalytic reaction on the reaction temperature. The aqueous solution was prepared by Lead metal powder. TiO2 photo catalyst nanopowder used was Sisco-74629 grade. The heavy metal is analyzed with VARIAN AA 240 atomic adsorption spectrophotometer. The study shows, with increasing TiO2 dose and pH the lead removal increases. According to study, it can be concluded that the utilization of titanium dioxide accounted for higher efficiency in the removal of lead from aqueous solution.

Keywords: adsorption, heavy metals, nanomaterial, photocatalysis

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8171 Quantification of Leachate Potential of the Quezon City Controlled Dumping Facility Using Help Model

Authors: Paul Kenneth D. Luzon, Maria Antonia N. Tanchuling

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The Quezon City Controlled Dumping facility also known as Payatas produces leachate which can contaminate soil and water environment in the area. The goal of this study is to quantify the leachate produced by the QCCDF using the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model. Results could be used as input for groundwater contaminant transport studies. The HELP model is based on a simple water budget and is an essential “model requirement” used by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Annual waste profile of the QCCDF was calculated. Based on topographical maps and estimation of settlement due to overburden pressure and degradation, a total of 10M m^3 of waste is contained in the landfill. The input necessary for the HELP model are weather data, soil properties, and landfill design. Results showed that from 1988 to 2011, an average of 50% of the total precipitation percolates through the bottom layer. Validation of the results is still needed due to the assumptions made in the study. The decrease in porosity of the top soil cover showed the best mitigation for minimizing percolation rate. This study concludes that there is a need for better leachate management system in the QCCDF.

Keywords: help model, landfill, payatas trash slide, quezon city controlled dumping facility

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8170 An Assessment of Suitable Alternative Public Transport System in Mid-Sized City of India

Authors: Sanjeev Sinha, Samir Saurav

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The rapid growth of urban areas in India has led to transportation challenges like traffic congestion and an increase in accidents. Despite efforts by state governments and local administrations to improve urban transport, the surge in private vehicles has worsened the situation. Patna, located in Bihar State, is an example of the trend of increasing reliance on private motor vehicles, resulting in vehicular congestion and emissions. The existing transportation infrastructure is inadequate to meet future travel demands, and there has been a notable increase in the share of private vehicles in the city. Additionally, there has been a surge in economic activities in the region, which has increased the demand for improved travel convenience and connectivity. To address these challenges, a study was conducted to assess the most suitable transit mode for the proposed transit corridor outlined in the Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP) for Patna. The study covered four stages: developing screening criteria, evaluating parameters for various alternatives, qualitative and quantitative evaluations of alternatives, and implementation options for the most viable alternative. The study suggests that a mass transit system such as a metro rail is necessary to enhance Patna's urban public transport system. The New Metro Policy 2017 outlines specific prerequisites for submitting a Metro Rail Project Proposal to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), including the preparation of a CMP, the formation of an Urban Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA), the creation of an Alternative Analysis Report, the development of a Detailed Project Report, a Multi-Modal Integration Plan, and a Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Plan. In 2018, the Comprehensive Mobility Plan for Patna was prepared, setting the stage for the subsequent steps in the metro rail project proposal. The results indicated that from the screening and analysis of qualitative parameters for different alternative modes in Patna, it is inferred that the Metro Rail and Monorail score 82.25 and 70.50, respectively, on a scale of 100. Based on the initial analysis and alternative evaluation in the form of quantitative analysis, the Metro Rail System significantly outperformed the Monorail system. The Metro Rail System has a positive Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) at a 14% internal rate of return, while the Monorail has a negative value. In conclusion, the study recommends choosing metro rail over monorail for the proposed transit corridor in Patna. However, the lack of broad-based technical expertise may result in implementation delays and increased costs for monorail.

Keywords: comprehensive mobility plan, alternative analysis, mobility corridors, mass transit system

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8169 Challenge of Baseline Hydrology Estimation at Large-Scale Watersheds

Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

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Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

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8168 Mining Coupled to Agriculture: Systems Thinking in Scalable Food Production

Authors: Jason West

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Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

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8167 Analyzing the Mission Drift of Social Business: Case Study of Restaurant Providing Professional Training to At-Risk Youth

Authors: G. Yanay-Ventura, H. Desivilya Syna, K. Michael

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Social businesses are based on the idea that an enterprise can be established for the sake of profit and, at the same time, with the aim of fulfilling social goals. Yet, the question of how these goals can be integrated in practice to derive parallel benefit in both realms still needs to be examined. Particularly notable in this context is the ‘governance challenge’ of social businesses, meaning the danger of the mission drifts from the social goal in the pursuit of good business. This study is based on an evaluation study of a social business that operates as a restaurant providing professional training to at-risk youth. The evaluation was based on the collection of a variety of data through interviews with stakeholders in the enterprise (directors and managers, business partners, social partners, and position holders in the restaurant and the social enterprise), a focus group consisting of the youth receiving the professional training, observations of the restaurant’s operation, and analysis of the social enterprise’s primary documents. The evaluation highlighted significant strengths of the social enterprise, including reaching relatively fast business sustainability, effective management of the restaurant, stable employment of the restaurant staff, and effective management of the social project. The social enterprise and business management have both enjoyed positive evaluations from a variety of stakeholders. Clearly, the restaurant was deemed by all a promising young business. However, the social project suffered from a 90% dropout rate among the youth entering its ranks, extreme monthly fluctuation in the number of youths participating, and a distinct minority of the youth who have succeeded in completing their training period. Possible explanations of the high dropout rate included the small number of cooks, which impeded the effectiveness of the training process and the provision of advanced cooking skills; lack of clarity regarding the essence and the elements of training; and lack of a meaningful peer group for the youth engaged in the program. Paradoxically, despite the stakeholders’ great appreciation for the social enterprise, the challenge of governability was also formidable, revealing a tangible risk of mission drift in the reduction of the social enterprise’s target population and a breach of the commitment made to the youth with regard to practical training. The risk of mission drifts emerged as a hidden and evasive issue for the stakeholders, who revealed a deep appreciation for the management and the outcomes of the social enterprise. The challenge of integration, therefore, requires an in-depth examination of how to maintain a successful business without hindering the achievement of the social goal. The study concludes that clear conceptualization of the training process and its aims, increased cooks’ participation in the social project, and novel conceptions with regard to the evaluation of success could serve to benefit the youth and impede mission drift.

Keywords: evaluation study, management, mission drift, social business

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8166 Pleated Surfaces: Experimentation and Examples

Authors: Maritza Granados Manjarrés

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This paper makes part of an investigation project which experiments with flat surfaces in order to pleat them using tessellations and flat origami conditions. The aim of the investigation is to eventually propose not only a methodology on how to pleat those surfaces but also to find an structural system to make them work as building skins. This stage of the investigation emphasizes on the experimentation with flat surfaces and different kinds of folding patterns and shows the many examples that can be made from this experimentation.

Keywords: flat origami, fold, space, surface

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8165 Economic Assessment of the Fish Solar Tent Dryers

Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

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8164 Downward Vertical Evacuation for Disabilities People from Tsunami Using Escape Bunker Technology

Authors: Febrian Tegar Wicaksana, Niqmatul Kurniati, Surya Nandika

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Indonesia is one of the countries that have great number of disaster occurrence and threat because it is located in not only between three tectonic plates such as Eurasia plates, Indo-Australia plates and Pacific plates, but also in the Ring of Fire path, like earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption and many more. Recently, research shows that there are potential areas that will be devastated by Tsunami in southern coast of Java. Tsunami is a series of waves in a body of water caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean. When the waves enter shallow water, they may rise to several feet or, in rare cases, tens of feet, striking the coast with devastating force. The parameter for reference such as magnitude, the depth of epicentre, distance between epicentres with land, the depth of every points, when reached the shore and the growth of waves. Interaction between parameters will bring the big variance of Tsunami wave. Based on that, we can formulate preparation that needed for disaster mitigation strategies. The mitigation strategies will take the important role in an effort to reduce the number of victims and damage in the area. It will reduce the number of victim and casualties. Reducing is directed to the most difficult mobilization casualties in the tsunami disaster area like old people, sick people and disabilities people. Until now, the method that used for rescuing people from Tsunami is basic horizontal evacuation. This evacuation system is not optimal because it needs so long time and it cannot be used by people with disabilities. The writers propose to create a vertical evacuation model with an escape bunker system. This bunker system is chosen because the downward vertical evacuation is considered more efficient and faster. Especially in coastal areas without any highlands surround it. The downward evacuation system is better than upward evacuation because it can avoid the risk of erosion at the ground around the structure which can affect the building. The structure of the bunker and the evacuation process while, and even after, disaster are the main priority to be considered. The power of bunker has quake’s resistance, the durability from water stream, variety of interaction to the ground, and waterproof design. When the situation is back to normal, victim and casualties can go into the safer place. The bunker will be located near the hospital and public places, and will have wide entrance supported by large slide in it so it will ease the disabilities people. The technology of the escape bunker system is expected to reduce the number of victims who have low mobility in the Tsunami.

Keywords: escape bunker, tsunami, vertical evacuation, mitigation, disaster management

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8163 Floating Building Potential for Adaptation to Rising Sea Levels: Development of a Performance Based Building Design Framework

Authors: Livia Calcagni

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Most of the largest cities in the world are located in areas that are vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding, both linked to climate change and rising sea levels (RSL). Nevertheless, more and more people are moving to these vulnerable areas as cities keep growing. Architects, engineers and policy makers are called to rethink the way we live and to provide timely and adequate responses not only by investigating measures to improve the urban fabric, but also by developing strategies capable of planning change, exploring unusual and resilient frontiers of living, such as floating architecture. Since the beginning of the 21st century we have seen a dynamic growth of water-based architecture. At the same time, the shortage of land available for urban development also led to reclaim the seabed or to build floating structures. In light of these considerations, time is ripe to consider floating architecture not only as a full-fledged building typology but especially as a full-fledged adaptation solution for RSL. Currently, there is no global international legal framework for urban development on water and there is no structured performance based building design (PBBD) approach for floating architecture in most countries, let alone national regulatory systems. Thus, the research intends to identify the technological, morphological, functional, economic, managerial requirements that must be considered in a the development of the PBBD framework conceived as a meta-design tool. As it is expected that floating urban development is mostly likely to take place as extension of coastal areas, the needs and design criteria are definitely more similar to those of the urban environment than of the offshore industry. Therefor, the identification and categorization of parameters takes the urban-architectural guidelines and regulations as the starting point, taking the missing aspects, such as hydrodynamics, from the offshore and shipping regulatory frameworks. This study is carried out through an evidence-based assessment of performance guidelines and regulatory systems that are effective in different countries around the world addressing on-land and on-water architecture as well as offshore and shipping industries. It involves evidence-based research and logical argumentation methods. Overall, this paper highlights how inhabiting water is not only a viable response to the problem of RSL, thus a resilient frontier for urban development, but also a response to energy insecurity, clean water and food shortages, environmental concerns and urbanization, in line with Blue Economy principles and the Agenda 2030. Moreover, the discipline of architecture is presented as a fertile field for investigating solutions to cope with climate change and its effects on life safety and quality. Future research involves the development of a decision support system as an information tool to guide the user through the decision-making process, emphasizing the logical interaction between the different potential choices, based on the PBBD.

Keywords: adaptation measures, floating architecture, performance based building design, resilient architecture, rising sea levels

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8162 On-Site Management from Reactive to Proactive

Authors: Yu-Tzu Chen, Luh-Maan Chang

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Construction is an inherently risky industry. The projects have been dominated by reactive actions owing to non-routine in nature. The on-site activities are especially crucial for successful project control. In order to alter actions from reactive to proactive, this paper presents an on-site data collection system utilizing advanced technology RFID and GPS in assisting on-site management with near real time progress monitoring.

Keywords: On-Site management, progress monitoring, RFID, GPS

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8161 Critical Review of the Democracy in Pakistan in Light of Dr. Israr Ahmed and Western Philosophers

Authors: Zoaib Mirza

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Pakistan is an Islamic country that got its partition from India in 1947 so that the people could practice the religion of Islam. The ideology of Pakistan was based on the notion that sovereignty only belonged to God Almighty (in Arabic, God means “Allah”), and Muslims will live in accordance with Islam principles. The Quran (Holy Book) and Sunnah (authentic practices of Prophet Mohammad, Peace Be Upon Him, that explains the application of the Quran) are foundations of the Islamic principles. It has been over 75 years, but unfortunately, Pakistan, due to its own political, social, and economic mistakes, is responsible for not being able to become a true Islamic nation to justify its partition from India. The rationale for writing this paper is to analyze the factors that led to changes in the democratic movements impacting the country's political, social, and economic growth. The methodology to examine the historical and political context of Pakistan’s history is by referencing the scholarly work of Israr Ahmed, a Pakistani Islamic theologian, philosopher, and Islamic scholar. While from a Western perspective, Karl Marx, Mar Weber, Hannah Arendt, Sheldon Wolin, Paulo Freire, and Jacques Ranciere's philosophies specific to totalitarianism, politics, military rule, religion, capitalism, and superpower are used as the framework to analyze Pakistan’s democracy. The study's findings conclude that Pakistan's democracy is unstable and has been impacted by military and civilian governance, which led to political, social, and economic downfall. To improve the current situation, the citizens of Pakistan have to realize that the success of a nation is only dependent on the level of consciousness of the leader and not the political system. Therefore, it is the responsibility of every citizen to be conscious of how they select their leader and take responsibility for the current situation in Pakistan.

Keywords: Pakistan, Islam, democracy, totalitarianism, military, religion, capitalism

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8160 Estimation of Aquifer Parameters Using Vertical Electrical Sounding in Ochudo City, Abakaliki Urban Nigeria

Authors: Moses. O. Eyankware, Benard I. Odoh, Omoleomo O. Omo-Irabor, Alex O. I. Selemo

Abstract:

Knowledge of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity is essential for the determination of natural water flow through an aquifer. These parameters are commonly estimated from the analysis of electrical conductivity, soil properties and fluid flow data. In order to achieve a faster and cost effective analysis of aquifer parameters in Ochudo City in Abakaliki, this study relied on non-invasive geophysical methods. As part of this approach, Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) was conducted at 20 sites in the study area for the identification of the vertical variation in subsurface lithology and for the characterization of the groundwater system. The area variously consists of between five to seven geoelectric layers of different thicknesses. Depth to aquifer ranges from 9.94 m-134.0 m while the thickness of the identified aquifer varies between 8.43 m and 44.31 m. Based on the electrical conductivity values of water samples collected from two boreholes and two hand-dug wells within the study area, the hydraulic conductivity was determined to range from 0.10 to 0.433 m/day. The estimated thickness of the aquifer and calculated hydraulic conductivity were used to derive the aquifer transmissivity. The results indicate that this parameter ranges from 1.58-7.56 m²/day with a formation factor of between 0.31-3.6.

Keywords: Asu river group, transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, abakaliki, vertical electrical sounding (VES)

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8159 Improving the Strength Characteristics of Soil Using Cotton Fibers

Authors: Bindhu Lal, Karnika Kochal

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Clayey soil contains clay minerals with traces of metal oxides and organic matter, which exhibits properties like low drainage, high plasticity, and shrinkage. To overcome these issues, various soil reinforcement techniques are used to elevate the stiffness, water tightness, and bearing capacity of the soil. Such techniques include cementation, bituminization, freezing, fiber inclusion, geo-synthetics, nailing, etc. Reinforcement of soil with fibers has been a cost-effective solution to soil improvement problems. An experimental study was undertaken involving the inclusion of cotton waste fibers in clayey soil as reinforcement with different fiber contents (1%, 1.5%, 2%, and 2.5% by weight) and analyzing its effects on the unconfined compressive strength of the soil. Two categories of soil were taken, comprising of natural clay and clay mixed with 5% sodium bentonite by weight. The soil specimens were subjected to proctor compaction and unconfined compression tests. The validated outcome shows that fiber inclusion has a strikingly positive impact on the compressive strength and axial strain at failure of the soil. Based on the commendatory results procured, compressive strength was found to be directly proportional to the fiber content, with the effect being more pronounced at lower water content.

Keywords: bentonite clay, clay, cotton fibers, unconfined compressive strength

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8158 The Impact on Habitat of Reef Traps Used in the Freshwater Shrimp (Palaemonetes antennarius, H. Milne Erwards, 1837) Catch

Authors: Cenkmen R. Begburs

Abstract:

In Antalya region, freshwater shrimps are usually collected with scoops and tin traps. However, it can be catched by reef traps in some water sources. Freshwater shrimps are constantly catching for commercial reasons because of a favorite bait for angling. There are more or less damage catching fishing vehicles to the habitat. This study was carried out in the Kırkgöz spring, Antalya and examined the effect of reef traps on the Kırkgöz spring habitat. Reef traps used 18.5x23.5x25 cm perforated bricks are arranged next to each other, blocks of random dimensions are prepared in 5x10, 18x24, 7x8 meter dimensions. These blocks are constructed with two layers of bricks that are covered with various materials such as carpets and blankets. Then, freshwater shrimps enter the holes of bricks. The bricks are closed off from both sides and discharged into a container when it is desired to be caught. The reef traps built on the plants which staying on the plant for a long time have been damaging the vegetation under the reef traps. Fishermen are setting new traps on the plants to increase the fishing efficiency since the freshwater shrimps are among the water plants. As a result, this application disrupts the aquatic organisms in their habitats. It is important to use fishing gears which will cause less damage and conserve stocks for sustainable fishing.

Keywords: reef trap, Antalya, environment, damage

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
8157 Examining the Effect of Online English Lessons on Nursery School Children

Authors: Hidehiro Endo, Taizo Shigemichi

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Introduction & Objectives: In 2008, the revised course of study for elementary schools was published by MEXT, and from the beginning of the academic year of 2011-2012, foreign language activities (English lessons) became mandatory for 5th and 6th graders in Japanese elementary schools. Foreign language activities are currently offered once a week for approximately 50 minutes by elementary school teachers, assistant language teachers who are native speakers of English, volunteers, among others, with the purpose of helping children become accustomed to functional English. However, the new policy has disclosed a myriad of issues in conducting foreign language activities since the majority of the current elementary school teachers has neither English teaching experience nor English proficiency. Nevertheless, converting foreign language activities into English, as a subject in Japanese elementary schools (for 5th and 6th graders) from 2020 is what MEXT currently envisages with the purpose of reforming English education in Japan. According to their new proposal, foreign language activities will be mandatory for 3rd and 4th graders from 2020. Consequently, gaining better access to English learning opportunities becomes one of the primary concerns even in early childhood education. Thus, in this project, we aim to explore some nursery schools’ attempts at providing toddlers with online English lessons via Skype. The main purpose of this project is to look deeply into what roles online English lessons in the nursery schools play in guiding nursery school children to enjoy learning the English language as well as to acquire English communication skills. Research Methods: Setting; The main research site is a nursery school located in the northern part of Japan. The nursery school has been offering a 20-minute online English lesson via Skype twice a week to 7 toddlers since September 2015. The teacher of the online English lessons is a male person who lives in the Philippines. Fieldwork & Data; We have just begun collecting data by attending the Skype English lessons. Direct observations are the principal components of the fieldwork. By closely observing how the toddlers respond to what the teacher does via Skype, we examine what components stimulate the toddlers to pay attention to the English lessons. Preliminary Findings & Expected Outcomes: Although both data collection and analysis are ongoing, we found that the online English teacher remembers the first name of each toddler and calls them by their first name via Skype, a technique that is crucial in motivating the toddlers to actively participate in the lessons. In addition, when the teacher asks the toddlers the name of a plastic object such as grapes in English, the toddlers tend to respond to the teacher in Japanese. Accordingly, the effective use of Japanese in teaching English for nursery school children need to be further examined. The anticipated results of this project are an increased recognition of the significance of creating English language learning opportunities for nursery school children and a significant contribution to the field of early childhood education.

Keywords: teaching children, English education, early childhood education, nursery school

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8156 Role of Process Parameters on Pocket Milling with Abrasive Water Jet Machining Technique

Authors: T. V. K. Gupta, J. Ramkumar, Puneet Tandon, N. S. Vyas

Abstract:

Abrasive Water Jet Machining (AWJM) is an unconventional machining process well known for machining hard to cut materials. The primary research focus on the process was for through cutting and a very limited literature is available on pocket milling using AWJM. The present work is an attempt to use this process for milling applications considering a set of various process parameters. Four different input parameters, which were considered by researchers for part separation, are selected for the above application i.e. abrasive size, flow rate, standoff distance, and traverse speed. Pockets of definite size are machined to investigate surface roughness, material removal rate, and pocket depth. Based on the data available through experiments on SS304 material, it is observed that higher traverse speeds gives a better finish because of reduction in the particle energy density and lower depth is also observed. Increase in the standoff distance and abrasive flow rate reduces the rate of material removal as the jet loses its focus and occurrence of collisions within the particles. ANOVA for individual output parameter has been studied to know the significant process parameters.

Keywords: abrasive flow rate, surface finish, abrasive size, standoff distance, traverse speed

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8155 Improving Patient Journey in the Obstetrics and Gynecology Emergency Department: A Comprehensive Analysis of Patient Experience

Authors: Lolwa Alansari, Abdelhamid Azhaghdani, Sufia Athar, Hanen Mrabet, Annaliza Cruz, Tamara Alshadafat, Almunzer Zakaria

Abstract:

Introduction: Improving the patient experience is a fundamental pillar of healthcare's quadruple aims. Recognizing the importance of patient experiences and perceptions in healthcare interactions is pivotal for driving quality improvement. This abstract centers around the Patient Experience Program, an endeavor crafted with the purpose of comprehending and elevating the experiences of patients in the Obstetrics & Gynecology Emergency Department (OB/GYN ED). Methodology: This comprehensive endeavor unfolded through a structured sequence of phases following Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) model, spanning over 12 months, focused on enhancing patient experiences in the Obstetrics & Gynecology Emergency Department (OB/GYN ED). The study meticulously examined the journeys of patients with acute obstetrics and gynecological conditions, collecting data from over 100 participants monthly. The inclusive approach covered patients of different priority levels (1-5) admitted for acute conditions, with no exclusions. Historical data from March and April 2022 serves as a benchmark for comparison, strengthening causality claims by providing a baseline understanding of OB/GYN ED performance before interventions. Additionally, the methodology includes the incorporation of staff engagement surveys to comprehensively understand the experiences of healthcare professionals with the implemented improvements. Data extraction involved administering open-ended questions and comment sections to gather rich qualitative insights. The survey covered various aspects of the patient journey, including communication, emotional support, timely access to care, care coordination, and patient-centered decision-making. The project's data analysis utilized a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative techniques to identify recurring themes and extract actionable insights and quantitative methods to assess patient satisfaction scores and relevant metrics over time, facilitating the measurement of intervention impact and longitudinal tracking of changes. From the themes we discovered in both the online and in-person patient experience surveys, several key findings emerged that guided us in initiating improvements, including effective communication and information sharing, providing emotional support and empathy, ensuring timely access to care, fostering care coordination and continuity, and promoting patient-centered decision-making. Results: The project yielded substantial positive outcomes, significantly improving patient experiences in the OB/GYN ED. Patient satisfaction levels rose from 62% to a consistent 98%, with notable improvements in satisfaction with care plan information and physician care. Waiting time satisfaction increased from 68% to a steady 97%. The project positively impacted nurses' and midwives' job satisfaction, increasing from 64% to an impressive 94%. Operational metrics displayed positive trends, including a decrease in the "left without being seen" rate from 3% to 1%, the discharge against medical advice rate dropping from 8% to 1%, and the absconded rate reducing from 3% to 0%. These outcomes underscore the project's effectiveness in enhancing both patient and staff experiences in the healthcare setting. Conclusion: The use of a patient experience questionnaire has been substantiated by evidence-based research as an effective tool for improving the patient experience, guiding interventions, and enhancing overall healthcare quality in the OB/GYN ED. The project's interventions have resulted in a more efficient allocation of resources, reduced hospital stays, and minimized unnecessary resource utilization. This, in turn, contributes to cost savings for the healthcare facility.

Keywords: patient experience, patient survey, person centered care, quality initiatives

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8154 Exploring Community Benefits Frameworks as a Tool for Addressing Intersections of Equity and the Green Economy in Toronto's Urban Development

Authors: Cheryl Teelucksingh

Abstract:

Toronto is in the midst of an urban development and infrastructure boom. Population growth and concerns about urban sprawl and carbon emissions have led to pressure on the municipal and the provincial governments to re-think urban development. Toronto’s approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation has positioning of the emerging green economy as part of the solution. However, the emerging green economy many not benefit all Torontonians in terms of jobs, improved infrastructure, and enhanced quality of life. Community benefits agreements (CBAs) are comprehensive, negotiated commitments, in which founders and builders of major infrastructure projects formally agree to work with community interest groups based in the community where the development is taking place, toward mutually beneficial environmental and labor market outcomes. When community groups are equitably represented in the process, they stand not only to benefit from the jobs created from the project itself, but also from the longer-term community benefits related to the quality of the completed work, including advocating for communities’ environmental needs. It is believed that green employment initiatives in Toronto should give greater consideration to best practices learned from community benefits agreements. Drawing on the findings of a funded qualitative study in Toronto (Canada), “The Green Gap: Toward Inclusivity in Toronto’s Green Economy” (2013-2016), this paper examines the emergent CBA in Toronto in relation to the development of a light rail transit project. Theoretical and empirical consideration will be given to the research gaps around CBAs, the role of various stakeholders, and discuss the potential for CBAs to gain traction in the Toronto’s urban development context. The narratives of various stakeholders across Toronto’s green economy will be interwoven with a discussion of the CBA model in Toronto and other jurisdictions.

Keywords: green economy in Toronto, equity, community benefits agreements, environmental justice, community sustainability

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8153 The Effect of Extrusion Processing on Solubility and Molecular Weight of Water-Soluble Arabinoxylan

Authors: Abdulmannan Fadel

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Arabinoxylan is a non-starch polysaccharide (NSP), which is one of the most important polysaccharides contained within cereal grains. Wheat endosperm pentosan and rice bran contain a significant amount of arabinoxylan (7% in rice bran and 10-12% in wheat endosperm pentosan). Several methods have been used for arabinoxylan extraction with varying degrees of success e.g. enzymatic and alkaline treatment. Yet, the use of extrusion alone as a pre-treatment to increase the yield and reduce the molecular weight in wheat endosperm pentosan and rice bran has not been investigated. The samples (wheat pentosan and rice bran) were extruded using a Twin-screw extruder at a range of screw speeds (80 and 160 rpm) and barrel temperatures range (80 to 140°C) with a throughput of 30 Kg hr-1 and moisture content of 25%. Arabinoxylans were extracted with water and the extraction yield and molecular weight was determined using size exclusion high-pressure liquid chromatography system. It was found that increasing screw speed from 80 rpm to 160 rpm, did not effect the extraction yield (p < 0.05) of arabinoxylan from either the wheat endosperm pentosan or the rice bran. However, the molecular weight of the extracted arabinoxylans from pentosan was found to decrease with increasing screw speed in wheat endosperm pentosan. These low molecular weight arabinoxylans have been suggested as immunomodulators.

Keywords: arabinoxylans, extrusion, wheat endosperm pentosan, rice bran

Procedia PDF Downloads 404
8152 Findings from an Access Improvement Project for Antiretroviral Therapy Uptake through Traditional Birth Attendants at Mother Theresa Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria

Authors: Daniel Afolayan, Christina Olawepo, Francis Olowookanga, Nguhemen Tingir, Olawale Fadare, John Oko

Abstract:

In Nigeria, traditional birth attendants (TBAs) can play an important role in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. However, their role in improving access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unclear. Catholic Caritas Foundation of Nigeria (Caritas Nigeria) is an implementing agency supporting increased access to HIV testing and treatment services in Lagos state through health facilities including Mother Theresa Hospital. Despite intra-facility testing and community outreaches, ART uptake at Mother Theresa Hospital, Lagos was low with 6 individuals on antiretroviral drugs 3 months post-activation. This study explored improving access to ART through linkages with TBAs for ART uptake at the facility. Plan-Do-Study-Act model was used. The goal was to improve uptake of ART from 6 to 80 in 5 months (end of project year). Scanning revealed a network of 15 TBAs with potential as satellites for HIV testing. Caritas Nigeria linked the facility with 15 TBAs who were provided with HIV test kits and trained on HIV testing services for provider-initiated testing and outreaches. Weekly reports and referrals of positives were received, tracked and feedback given on testing yield. These TBAs serve individuals of various age and gender at their trado-medical centres. At the end of 5 months, HIV testing increased by 10,575 (78% from TBAs) and HIV positives obtained improved by 77 (44.2% from TBAs). 55 new individuals were enrolled and commenced on ART (61.8% from TBAs). There was a successful linkage of all clients with escort services due to incentives. Total uptake of ART was 61 (76.3% of target). Structured partnerships between TBAs and HIV care and treatment centers should be strengthened to improve access to ART.

Keywords: access improvement, antiretroviral therapy, traditional birth attendants, uptake

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8151 Stabilization of Expansive Soils with Polypropylene Fiber

Authors: Ali Sinan Soğancı

Abstract:

Expansive soils are often encountered in many parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid fields. Such kind of soils, generally including active clay minerals in low water content, enlarge in volume by absorbing the water through the surface and cause a great harm to the light structures such as channel coating, roads and airports. The expansive soils were encountered on the path of Apa-Hotamış conveyance channel belonging to the State Hydraulic Works in the region of Konya. In the research done in this area, it is predicted that the soil has a swollen nature and the soil should be filled with proper granular equipment by digging the ground to 50-60 cm. In this study, for purpose of helping the other research to be done in the same area, it is thought that instead of replacing swollen soil with the granular soil, by stabilizing it with polypropylene fiber and using it its original place decreases effect of swelling percent, in this way the cost will be decreased. Therefore, a laboratory tests were conducted to study the effects of polypropylene fiber on swelling characteristics of expansive soil. Test results indicated that inclusion of fiber reduced swell percent of expansive soil. As the fiber content increased, the unconfined compressive strength was increased. Finally, it can be say that stabilization of expansive soils with polypropylene fiber is an effective method.

Keywords: expansive soils, polypropylene fiber, stabilization, swelling percent

Procedia PDF Downloads 460
8150 Entropy Generation Analysis of Cylindrical Heat Pipe Using Nanofluid

Authors: Morteza Ghanbarpour, Rahmatollah Khodabandeh

Abstract:

In this study, second law of thermodynamic is employed to evaluate heat pipe thermal performance. In fact, nanofluids potential to decrease the entropy generation of cylindrical heat pipes are studied and the results are compared with experimental data. Some cylindrical copper heat pipes of 200 mm length and 6.35 mm outer diameter were fabricated and tested with distilled water and water based Al2O3 nanofluids with volume concentrations of 1-5% as working fluids. Nanofluids are nanotechnology-based colloidal suspensions fabricated by suspending nanoparticles in a base liquid. These fluids have shown potential to enhance heat transfer properties of the base liquids used in heat transfer application. When the working fluid undergoes between different states in heat pipe cycle the entropy is generated. Different sources of irreversibility in heat pipe thermodynamic cycle are investigated and nanofluid effect on each of these sources is studied. Both experimental and theoretical studies reveal that nanofluid is a good choice to minimize the entropy generation in heat pipe thermodynamic cycle which results in higher thermal performance and efficiency of the system.

Keywords: heat pipe, nanofluid, thermodynamics, entropy generation, thermal resistance

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8149 Functional Feeding Groups and Trophic Levels of Benthic Macroinvertebrates Assemblages in Albertine Rift Rivers and Streams in South Western Uganda

Authors: Peace Liz Sasha Musonge

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Behavioral aspects of species nutrition such as feeding methods and food type are archetypal biological traits signifying how species have adapted to their environment. This concept of functional feeding groups (FFG) analysis is currently used to ascertain the trophic levels of the aquatic food web in a specific microhabitat. However, in Eastern Africa, information about the FFG classification of benthic macroinvertebrates in highland rivers and streams is almost absent, and existing studies have fragmented datasets. For this reason, we carried out a robust study to determine the feed type, trophic level and FFGs, of 56 macroinvertebrate taxa (identified to family level) from Albertine rift valley streams. Our findings showed that all five major functional feeding groups were represented; Gatherer Collectors (GC); Predators (PR); shredders (SH); Scrapers (SC); and Filterer collectors. The most dominant functional feeding group was the Gatherer Collectors (GC) that accounted for 53.5% of the total population. The most abundant (GC) families were Baetidae (7813 individuals), Chironomidae NTP (5628) and Caenidae (1848). Majority of the macroinvertebrate population feed on Fine particulate organic matter (FPOM) from the stream bottom. In terms of taxa richness the Predators (PR) had the highest value of 24 taxa and the Filterer Collectors group had the least number of taxa (3). The families that had the highest number of predators (PR) were Corixidae (1024 individuals), Coenagrionidae (445) and Libellulidae (283). However, Predators accounted for only 7.4% of the population. The findings highlighted the functional feeding groups and habitat type of macroinvertebrate communities along an altitudinal gradient.

Keywords: trophic levels, functional feeding groups, macroinvertebrates, Albertine rift

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8148 Preparation and Characterization of Antifouling Polysulfone Flat Sheet Membrane by Phase Inversion

Authors: Bharti Saini, Sukanta K. Dash

Abstract:

In this work polymeric Nanofiltration (NF) membranes of polysulfone (PSF) (average molecular weight of 22400 Da) were prepared using polyethylene glycol (PEG) (average molecular weight of 200 Da) as an organic additive and ZnCl2 as an inorganic additive. Dimethyl acetamide (DMAc) was used as the solvent, and Deionised water as nonsolvent. The membranes were prepared by phase inversion (immersion precipitation) method. PEG 200 and ZnCl2 in varying concentration are directly added into the casting solution of PSF and DMAc. PEG 200 was used in concentration varying from 0 to 10 % (w/w) in the solution of PSF and DMAc, while ZnCl2 is varied from 0 to 2% (w/w). Membranes were characterized for surface morphology, water uptake, porosity and contact angle, with respect to concentration of PEG and ZnCl2. It was observed that with the increase in additive PEG 200, the porosity and hence, hydrophilicity increase. As a result, the number of pores increases as justified by the SEM analysis as well. The study revealed that the synergistic effect of PEG with ZnCl2 is more effective, and the best results were produced by the solution containing 2% PEG 200 and 1% ZnCl2. It was inferred that with the increase in concentration of additives, the pore size goes on decreasing. The membranes obtained gradually move from microfiltration range to nanofiltration range, and this change is primarily brought about by the addition of ZnCl2.

Keywords: membrane, phase inversion method, polysulfone, porous structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
8147 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 210