Search results for: varying probability sampling

Authors: Dionisios Panagiotaras, Ioannis P. Kokkoris, Dionysios Koulougliotis, Dimitra Lekka, Alexandra Skalioti

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In the summer of 2021, Greece was affected by devastating forest fires in various regions of the country, resulting in human losses, destruction or degradation of the natural environment, infrastructure, livestock and cultivations. The present study concerns a pilot assessment of natural vegetation regeneration in the second, in terms of area, fire-affected region for 2021, at Ancient Olympia area, located in West Peloponnisos (Ilia Prefecture), Greece. A standardised field sampling protocol for assessing natural regeneration was implemented at selected sites where the forest fire had occurred previously (in 2007), and the vegetation (Pinus halepensis forest) had regenerated naturally. The results of the study indicate the loss of the established natural regeneration of Pinus halepensis forest, as well as of the tree-layer in total. Post-fire succession species are recorded to the shrub and the herb layer, with a varying cover. Present findings correspond to the results of field work and analysis one year after the fire, which will form the basis for further research and conclusions on taking action for restoration schemes in areas that have been affected by fire more than once within a 20-year period.

Keywords: forest, pinus halepensis, ancient olympia, post fire vegetation

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Jean Marie Vianney Ininahazwe, Patrick Bitangumutwenzi

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Context: The issue of menstrual hygiene is an entry point for demonstrating the gender-specific nature of the needs of women and adolescent girls. Women and girls around the world face many challenges in managing their periods. They may be deprived of certain basic human rights, including those relating to education, work and health. This work describes the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene among adolescent girls from 12 to 19 years at Lake Tanganyika Secondary School. Method: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study among 384 adolescent girls from Lake Tanganyika secondary school over a period of 2 weeks from September 13 to September 27 and with a purely general objective of describing the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene in secondary schools. The study was conducted using a non-probability method and the sampling technique was for convenience. The data collection technique used was the survey by questionnaire and the exploitation of the documentary. The data collection tool used was the questionnaire. Microsoft Word 2013, Microsoft Excel 2.13 and EPI INFO7 software were used for this purpose. Results: We noticed that 55.47% of the participants knew that menstruation is a physiological process; 57.55% of the teenage girls surveyed get their information about menstrual hygiene from their mothers; 75.72% use sanitary napkins and 24.02% use fabrics as protective material; 35.16% of respondents have already lacked sanitary napkins since their menarche; 37.29% are absent from classes due to lack of sanitary napkins; 23.82% use soap and other products to wash.

Keywords: knowledge, attitudes, practices, menstrual hygiene

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Authors: Yvette Nsabimana, Nadine Misago, Minani Methode

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Context: the issue of menstrual hygiene is an entry point for demonstrating the gender-specific nature of the needs of women and adolescent girls. Women and girls around the world face many challenges in managing their periods. They may be deprived of certain basic human rights, including those relating to education, work and health. This work describes the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene among adolescent girls from 12 to 19 years of Lake Tanganyika Secondary School. Method: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study among 384 adolescent girls from Lake Tanganyika secondary school over a period of 2 weeks from September 13 to September 27 and with a purely general objective of describing the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of menstrual hygiene in secondary schools. The study was conducted using a non-probability method and the sampling technique was for convenience. The data collection technique used was the survey by questionnaire and the exploitation of the documentary. The data collection tool used was the questionnaire. Microsoft Word 2013, Microsoft Excel 2.13 and EPI INFO7 software were used for this purpose. Results: We noticed that 55.47% of the participants knew that menstruation is a physiological process; 57.55% of the teenage girls surveyed get their information about menstrual hygiene from their mothers; 75.72% use sanitary napkins and 24.02% use fabrics as protective material; 35.16% of respondents have already lacked sanitary napkins since their menarche; 37.29% are absent from classes due to lack of sanitary napkins; 23.82% use soap and other products to wash.

Keywords: knowledge, attitudes, practices, menstrual hygiene

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Authors: Gökhan Kayili, Ramazan Ari

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In this research, it is aimed to be adapted Wally Feelings Test to Turkish children and performed the reliability and validity analysis of the test. The sampling of the research was composed of three to five year-old 699 Turkish preschoolers who are attending official and private nursery school. The schools selected with simple random sampling method by considering different socio economic conditions and different central district in Konya. In order to determine reliability of Wally Feelings Test, internal consistency coefficients (KR-20), split-half reliability and test- retest reliability analysis have been performed. During validation process construct validity, content/scope validity and concurrent/criterion validity were used. When validity and reliability of the test examined, it is seen that Wally Feelings Test is a valid and reliable instrument to evaluate three to five year old Turkish children’s understanding feeling skills.

Keywords: reliability, validity, wally feelings test, social sciences

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Authors: Victor Ananth Paramananth, Rashid Muniginin, Mahaya Abd Rahman, Siti Afifah Ismail

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Safety issues, scene protection, and appropriate evidence collection must be handled in any bio crime scene. There will be a scene or multi-scene to be cordoned for investigation in any bio-incident or bio crime event. Evidence collection is critical in determining the type of microbial or toxin, its lethality, and its source. As a consequence, from the start of the investigation, a proper sampling method is required. The most significant challenges for the crime scene officer would be deciding where to obtain samples, the best sampling method, and the sample sizes needed. Since there could be evidence in liquid, viscous, or powder shape at a crime scene, crime scene officers have difficulty determining which tools to use for sampling. To maximize sample collection, the appropriate tools for sampling methods are necessary. This study aims to assist the crime scene officer in collecting liquid, viscous, and powder biological samples in sufficient quantity while preserving sample quality. Observational tests on sample collection using liquid, viscous, and powder samples for adequate quantity and sample quality were performed using UV light in this research. The density of the light emission varies upon the method of collection and sample types. The best tools for collecting sufficient amounts of liquid, viscous, and powdered samples can be identified by observing UV light. Instead of active microorganisms, the invisible powder is used to assess sufficient sample collection during a crime scene investigation using various collection tools. The liquid, powdered and viscous samples collected using different tools were analyzed using Fourier transform infrared - attenuate total reflection (FTIR-ATR). FTIR spectroscopy is commonly used for rapid discrimination, classification, and identification of intact microbial cells. The liquid, viscous and powdered samples collected using various tools have been successfully observed using UV light. Furthermore, FTIR-ATR analysis showed that collected samples are sufficient in quantity while preserving their quality.

Keywords: biological sample, crime scene, collection tool, UV light, forensic

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Jayisha Das Jaya, Nafis As Sami, Nazia Jahan, Tamanna Jerin, Mohammed Russedul Islam

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This paper contains continuous research which helps to analyze polypropylene modified bituminous mix and its impact characteristics with respect to original bitumen. Three percentages of polypropylene varying from (1-3) % of the weight of bitumen have been used to alter bitumen’s performance. The temperature of 170°C has been maintained during the blending of polypropylene with bitumen. It was performed by a wet process as it has certain advantages over the dry process. A rough estimate of 210 rpm rotation speed was set to prepare the blend in a mixer for 30 minutes producing homogeneous mixture. The blended mix shows a change in physical properties in comparison with the original bitumen content. Modification shows that for a 1% increment of polypropylene, softening point increases by 1 degree, penetration values decrease gradually to 55.6, 54, 52.5, ductility values decrease gradually to 87,76, 63 and specific gravity remains the same. Then Marshall mix design is performed with 60/70 penetration grade bitumen contents varying from (4-6) % with .5% intervals. Marshall stability and flow test results indicate the increase in stability and decrease in flow.

Keywords: bitumen, marshall, polypropylene, temperature

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Authors: S. M. Mahdi Niktabara, K. Seshagiri Raob, Amit Kumar Shrivastavac, Jiří Ščučkaa

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The presence of the discontinuity in the form of joints is one of the most significant factors causing instability in the rock mass. On the other hand, dynamic loads, including earthquake and blasting induce cyclic shear loads along the joints in rock masses; therefore, failure of rock mass exacerbates along the joints due to changing shear resistance. Joints are under constant normal load (CNL) and constant normal stiffness (CNS) conditions. Normal stiffness increases on the joints with increasing depth, and it can affect shear resistance. For correct assessment of joint shear resistance under varying normal stiffness and number of cycles, advanced laboratory shear machine is essential for the shear test. Conventional direct shear equipment has limitations such as boundary conditions, working under monotonic movements only, or cyclic shear loads with constant frequency and amplitude of shear loads. Hence, a large-scale servo-controlled direct shear testing machine was designed and fabricated to perform shear test under the both CNL and CNS conditions with varying normal stiffness at different frequencies and amplitudes of shear loads. In this study, laboratory cyclic shear tests were conducted on non-planar joints under varying normal stiffness. In addition, the effects of different frequencies and amplitudes of shear loads were investigated. The test results indicate that shear resistance increases with increasing normal stiffness at the first cycle, but the influence of normal stiffness significantly decreases with an increase in the number of shear cycles. The frequency of shear load influences on shear resistance, i.e. shear resistance increases with increasing frequency. However, at low shear amplitude the number of cycles does not affect shear resistance on the joints, but it decreases with higher amplitude.

Keywords: cyclic shear load, frequency of load, amplitude of displacement, normal stiffness

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Authors: Pallavi Thakur, Rakesh K. Garg

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Latent fingerprints are commonly encountered evidence at the scene of the crime. It is very important to decipher these fingerprints in order to explore their identity and a lot of research has been made on the visualization of latent fingermarks on various substrates by numerous researchers. During the past few years large number of powder formulations has been evolved for the development of latent fingermarks on different surfaces. This paper reports a new and simple fingerprint powder which is non-toxic and has been employed on different substrates successfully for the development and visualization of latent fingermarks upto the time period of twelve days in varying temperature conditions. In this study, a less expensive, simple and easily available catechu (kattha) powder has been used to decipher the latent fingermarks on different substrates namely glass, plastic, metal, aluminium foil, white paper, wall tile and wooden sheet. It is observed that it gives very clear results on all the mentioned substrates and can be successfully used for the development and visualization of twelve days old latent fingermarks in varying temperature conditions on wall tiles.

Keywords: fingermarks, catechu, visualization, aged fingermarks

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Authors: Igor Luiz Bernardes de Moura, Luan Carlos de Sena Monteiro Ozelim, Fabiano Araujo Soares

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The development of a low cost acquisition system of S-EMG signals which are reliable, comfortable for the user and with high mobility shows to be a relevant proposition in modern biomedical engineering scenario. In the study, the sampling capacity of the Arduino microcontroller Atmel Atmega328 with an A/D converter with 10-bit resolution and its reconstructing capability of a signal of surface electromyography are analyzed. An electronic circuit to capture the signal through two differential channels was designed, signals from Biceps Brachialis of a healthy man of 21 years was acquired to test the system prototype. ARV, MDF, MNF and RMS estimators were used to compare de acquired signals with physiological values. The Arduino was configured with a sampling frequency of 1.5 kHz for each channel, and the tests with the circuit designed offered a SNR of 20.57dB.

Keywords: electromyography, Arduino, low-cost, atmel atmega328 microcontroller

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Nopsarun Vannasirikul

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The purposes of this research paper were to study the current situations of community development, women’s potentials, women’s participation, network, and government policy as well as to study the factors influencing women’s potentials, women’s participation, network, and government policy that have on the community development. The population included the women age of 18 years old who were living in the communities of Bangkok areas. This study was a mix research method of quantitative and qualitative method. A simple random sampling method was utilized to obtain 400 sample groups from 50 districts of Bangkok and to perform data collection by using questionnaire. Also, a purposive sampling method was utilized to obtain 12 informants for an in-depth interview to gain an in-sight information for quantitative method.

Keywords: community development, participation, network, women’s right, management

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

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This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Ghada A. Alfattni

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Analysing unbalanced datasets is one of the challenges that practitioners in machine learning field face. However, many researches have been carried out to determine the effectiveness of the use of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to address this issue. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the effectiveness of the SMOTE over different models on unbalanced datasets. Three classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbour) were tested with multiple datasets, then the same datasets were oversampled by using SMOTE and applied again to the three models to compare the differences in the performances. Results of experiments show that the highest number of nearest neighbours gives lower values of error rates. 

Keywords: imbalanced datasets, SMOTE, machine learning, logistic regression, support vector machine, nearest neighbour

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Authors: Leah Gwatimba, Nanga Raymond Raselekoane

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The incidences of youth who engage in unlawful or criminal activities are of great concern for the criminal justice system and government in South Africa. In terms of the juvenile justice system in South Africa, under-age youth who have been found guilty and sentenced to serve a jail term cannot be sent to the same detention facility as adults. The juvenile justice system is meant to protect young offenders from physical, emotional and mental exploitation by adult prisoners. Under-age young offenders should be assisted and exposed to educational, entrepreneurial and behavioral programmes that can equip them with the much needed skills that will turn them into law-abiding and economically productive citizens. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the justice system in South Africa in the rehabilitation young offenders. A qualitative method was used. The study used the non-probability purposive sampling to select the respondents. In-depth interviews, focus groups, observation and thematic coding were used to collect and analyse the data respectively. The study population consisted of social workers and offending youth. The sample comprised of 16 respondents (i.e. 4 social workers and twelve offending youth (6 males and 6 females). The study indicated that there is worrying recurrence of the anti-social behavior by some of the young offenders. According to this study, the effectiveness of the juvenile justice system in the rehabilitation of the offending youth can be achieved by paying serious attention to follow-up services, participation of families of the offending youth in the diversion programmes and by improving the socio-economic conditions in the homes and communities of the offending youth.

Keywords: juvenile delinquent, juvenile justice system, diversion programmes, rehabilitation, restorative justice

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Authors: Abdool Qaiyum Mohabuth

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Transferrable skills are learnt abilities which are mainly acquired when experiencing work. University students have the opportunities to develop the knowledge and aptitude at work when they undertake WBL placement during their studies. There is a range of transferrable skills which students may acquire at their placement settings. Several studies have tried to identify a core set of transferrable skills which students can acquire at their placement settings. However, the different lists proposed have often been criticised for being exhaustive and duplicative. In addition, assessing the achievement of students on practice learning based on the transferrable skills is regarded as being complex and tedious due to the variability of placement settings. No attempt has been made in investigating whether these skills are assessable at practice settings. This study seeks to define a set of generic transferrable skills that can be assessed during WBL practice. Quantitative technique was used involving the design of two questionnaires. One was administered to University of Mauritius students who have undertaken WBL practice and the other was slightly modified, destined to mentors who have supervised and assessed students at placement settings. To obtain a good representation of the student’s population, the sample considered was stratified over four Faculties. As for the mentors, probability sampling was considered. Findings revealed that transferrable skills may be subject to formal assessment at practice settings. Hypothesis tested indicate that there was no significant difference between students and mentors as regards to the application of transferrable skills for formal assessment. A list of core transferrable skills that are assessable at any practice settings has been defined after taking into account their degree of being generic, extent of acquisition at work settings and their consideration for formal assessment. Both students and mentors assert that these transferrable skills are accessible at work settings and require commitment and energy to be acquired successfully.

Keywords: knowledge, skills, assessment, placement, mentors

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Authors: Mahadzirah Mohamad, Morliyati Mohammad, Nor Azman Mat Ali, Zainudin Awang

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Globally, youth substance abuse has been identified as the problem that causes substantial damage not only to individuals, but also to families and communities. In addition, substance abuse youths have become unproductive resources that would play lesser roles in the nation’s development. The increasing trend of substance abuse among youths has raised a lot of concern among various quarters in Malaysia. It has also been reported that Malay youths are the majority group involved in substance abuse. However, it was noted that life satisfaction had been found to be an important mitigating factor that addressed substance abuse. The objectives of the study were twofold: firstly, to ascertain the effect of life satisfaction on substance abuse among Malay youth. Secondly, to identify the role of delinquency on the relationship between life satisfaction and substance abuse. This study adopted a cross-sectional research design. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to 500 Malay youths at the youth programmes using a two-step sampling technique: area sampling and systematic sampling. The research hypotheses were tested using Structural Equation Modelling. The findings of the study revealed that there is no significance relationship between life satisfaction and substance abuse. There is a significant inverse relationship between life satisfaction and delinquency. Moreover, delinquency has a positive significant influence on substance abuse. The use of Bootstrapping analysis proved that delinquency plays a full mediating role in the relationship between life satisfaction and substance abuse. This study suggested that life satisfaction has no effect on youth substance abuse. In order to reduce substance abuse, efforts should be undertaken to reduce delinquency behaviour by increasing youth life satisfaction.

Keywords: delinquency, life satisfaction, substance abuse, youth

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Sarchil H. Qader, Andrew Harfoot, Mathias Kuepie, Sabrina Juran, Attila Lazar, Andrew J. Tatem

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The need for high-quality, reliable, and timely population data, including demographic information, to support the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in all countries was recognized by the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for sustainable development. However, many low and middle-income countries lack reliable and recent census data. To achieve reliable and accurate census and survey outputs, up-to-date census enumeration areas and digital national sampling frames are critical. Census enumeration areas (EAs) are the smallest geographic units for collection, disseminating, and analyzing census data and are often used as a national sampling frame to serve various socio-economic surveys. Even for countries that are wealthy and stable, creating and updating EAs is a difficult yet crucial step in preparing for a national census. Such a process is commonly done manually, either by digitizing small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or walking the boundaries of units, both of which are extremely expensive. We have developed a user-friendly tool that could be employed to generate draft EA boundaries automatically. The tool is based on high-resolution gridded population and settlement datasets, GPS household locations, building footprints and uses publicly available natural, man-made and administrative boundaries. Initial outputs were produced in Burkina Faso, Paraguay, Somalia, Togo, Niger, Guinea, and Zimbabwe. The results indicate that the EAs are in line with international standards, including boundaries that are easily identifiable and follow ground features, have no overlaps, are compact and free of pockets and disjoints, and the boundaries are nested within administrative boundaries.

Keywords: enumeration areas, national sampling frame, gridded population data, preEA tool

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Livhuwani Muthelo, R. N. Malema, T. M. Mothiba

Abstract:

Long term exposure to excessive noise in the mining industry increases the risk of noise induced hearing loss, with consequences for employee’s health, productivity and the overall quality of life. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that contribute to Noise Induced Hearing Loss amongst employees at the Platinum mine in the Limpopo Province, South Africa. Study method: A qualitative, phenomenological, exploratory, descriptive, contextual design was applied in order to explore and describe the contributory factors. Purposive non-probability sampling was used to select 10 male employees who were diagnosed with NIHL in the year 2014 in four mine shafts, and 10 managers who were involved in a Hearing Conservation Programme. The data were collected using semi-structured one-on-one interviews. A qualitative data analysis of Tesch’s approach was followed. Results: The following themes emerged: Experiences and challenges faced by employees in the work environment, hearing protective device factors and management and leadership factors. Hearing loss was caused by partial application of guidelines, policies, and procedures from the Department of Minerals and Energy. Conclusion: The study results indicate that although there are guidelines, policies, and procedures available, failure in the implementation of one element will affect the development and maintenance of employees hearing mechanism. It is recommended that the mine management should apply the guidelines, policies, and procedures and promptly repair the broken hearing protective devices.

Keywords: employees, factors, noise induced hearing loss, noise exposure

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Authors: Cornelius Michael Ekenta

Abstract:

The research made a gender comparative analysis of the influence of sources of information on the adoption of tenera improved oil palm technology. Purposive, stratified and random sampling techniques were used to sample a total of 292 farmers (155 males and 137 females) for the study. Structured questionnaire was used to obtain primary data used for analysis. Obtained data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and Logit regressions analysis. Findings revealed that radio, extension office, television and farmers’ group were the most preferred sources of information by the farmers both male and female. Also, males perceived information from radio (92%) and farmers’ group (84%) to be available and information from Research Institutes as credible (95%). Similarly, the female perceived information from Research Institutes to be reliable (70%). The study showed that 38% of men adopted the variety, 25% of the women adopted the variety while 32% of both men and women adopted the variety in the study area. Regressions analysis indicated that radio, extension office, television, farmers’ group and research institute were significant at 0.5% of probability for men and female farmers. The study concluded that the adoption of tenera improved oil palm technology was low among male and female farmers though men adopted more than the women. It was recommended therefore that Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) in other states of the country should partner with their state radio and television stations to broadcast agricultural programmes periodically to ensure efficient dissemination of agricultural information to the farmers.

Keywords: analysis, Edo, gender, influence, information, sources, tenera

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Authors: Ratu Khabiba, Qisha Quarina

Abstract:

This study aims to analyse the effect of married couples’ assortative educational attainments on the division of economic activities among themselves in the household. This study contributes to the literature on women’s participation in employment, especially among married women, to see whether the traditional values about gender roles in the household still continue to shape the employment participation among married women in Indonesia, despite increasing women’s human capital through education. This study utilizes the Indonesian National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2016 and estimates the results using the multinomial logit model. Our results show that compared to high-educated educational homogamy couples, educational heterogamy couples, especially hypergamy, have a higher probability of being a single-worker type. Moreover, the high-educated educational homogamy couples have the highest probability of being a dual-worker type. Thus, we found evidence that the traditional values of gender role segregation seem to still play a significant role in married women’s employment decision in Indonesia, particularly for couples’ with educational heterogamy and low-educated educational homogamy couples.

Keywords: assortative education, dual-worker, hypergamy, homogamy, traditional values, women labor participation

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Authors: Chansheng He, Zhongfu Wang, Xiao Bai, Jie Tian, Xin Jin

Abstract:

Heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties directly affects hydrological processes at different scales. Understanding heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties such as soil moisture is therefore essential for modeling watershed ecohydrological processes, particularly in hard to access, topographically complex mountainous watersheds. This study maps spatial variations of soil moisture by in situ observation network that consists of sampling points, zones, and tributaries, and monitors corresponding hydrological variables of air and soil temperatures, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and runoff in the Upper Reach of the Heihe River Watershed, a second largest inland river (terminal lake) with a drainage area of over 128,000 km² in Northwest China. Subsequently, the study uses a hydrological model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate the effects of heterogeneity of soil moisture on watershed hydrological processes. The spatial clustering method, Full-Order-CLK was employed to derive five soil heterogeneous zones (Configuration 97, 80, 65, 40, and 20) for soil input to SWAT. Results show the simulations by the SWAT model with the spatially clustered soil hydraulic information from the field sampling data had much better representation of the soil heterogeneity and more accurate performance than the model using the average soil property values for each soil type derived from the coarse soil datasets. Thus, incorporating detailed field sampling soil heterogeneity data greatly improves performance in hydrologic modeling.

Keywords: heterogeneity, soil moisture, SWAT, up-scaling

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Authors: Boumesbah Asma, Chergui Mohamed El-amine

Abstract:

Since it has been shown that the multi-objective minimum spanning tree problem (MOST) is NP-hard even with two criteria, we propose in this study a hybrid NSGA-II algorithm with an exact mutation operator, which is only used with low probability, to find an approximation to the Pareto front of the problem. In a connected graph G, a spanning tree T of G being a connected and cycle-free graph, if k edges of G\T are added to T, we obtain a partial graph H of G inducing a reduced size multi-objective spanning tree problem compared to the initial one. With a weak probability for the mutation operator, an exact method for solving the reduced MOST problem considering the graph H is then used to give birth to several mutated solutions from a spanning tree T. Then, the selection operator of NSGA-II is activated to obtain the Pareto front approximation. Finally, an adaptation of the VNS metaheuristic is called for further improvements on this front. It allows finding good individuals to counterbalance the diversification and the intensification during the optimization search process. Experimental comparison studies with an exact method show promising results and indicate that the proposed algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: minimum spanning tree, multiple objective linear optimization, combinatorial optimization, non-sorting genetic algorithm, variable neighborhood search

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Arnab Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative study of Arch bridges based on their varying rise to span ratio. The comparison is done between different steel Arch bridges which have variable span length and rise to span ratio keeping the same support condition. The aim of our present study is to select the optimum value of rise to span ratio of Arch bridge as the cost of the Arch bridge increases with the increasing of the rise. In order to fulfill the objective, several rise to span ratio have been considered for same span of Arch bridge and various structural parameters such as Bending moment, shear force etc have been calculated for different model. A comparative study has been done for several Arch bridges finally to select the optimum rise to span ratio of the Arch bridges. In the present study, Finite Element model for medium to long span, with different rise to span ratio have been modeled and are analyzed with the help of a Computational Software named MIDAS Civil to evaluate the results such as Bending moments, Shear force, displacements, Stresses, influence line diagrams, critical loads. In the present study, 60 models of Arch bridges for 80 to 120 m span with different rise to span ratio has been thoroughly investigated.

Keywords: arch bridge, analysis, comparative study, rise to span ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 516