Search results for: skew distributions
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 694

Search results for: skew distributions

214 Parametric Study on the Development of Earth Pressures Behind Integral Bridge Abutments Under Cyclic Translational Movements

Authors: Lila D. Sigdel, Chin J. Leo, Samanthika Liyanapathirana, Pan Hu, Minghao Lu

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Integral bridges are a class of bridges with integral or semi-integral abutments, designed without expansion joints in the bridge deck of the superstructure. Integral bridges are economical alternatives to conventional jointed bridges with lower maintenance costs and greater durability, thereby improving social and economic stability for the community. Integral bridges have also been proven to be effective in lowering the overall construction cost compared to the conventional type of bridges. However, there is significant uncertainty related to the design and analysis of integral bridges in response to cyclic thermal movements induced due to deck expansion and contraction. The cyclic thermal movements of the abutments increase the lateral earth pressures on the abutment and its foundation, leading to soil settlement and heaving of the backfill soil. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate the soil-abutment interaction under the cyclic translational movement of the abutment. Results from five experiments conducted to simulate different magnitudes of cyclic translational movements of abutments induced by thermal changes are presented, focusing on lateral earth pressure development at the abutment-soil interface. Test results show that the cycle number and magnitude of cyclic translational movements have significant effects on the escalation of lateral earth pressures. Experimentally observed earth pressure distributions behind the integral abutment were compared with the current design approaches, which shows that the most of the practices has under predicted the lateral earth pressure.

Keywords: integral bridge, cyclic thermal movement, lateral earth pressure, soil-structure interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
213 Histopathological Spectrum of Skin Lesions in the Elderly: Experience from a Tertiary Hospital in Southeast Nigeria

Authors: Ndukwe, Chinedu O.

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Background: There are only a few epidemiological studies published on skin disorders in the elderly within the Nigerian context and none from the Southeast Region of the country. In addition, none of these studies has considered the pattern and frequency of histopathologically diagnosed geriatric skin lesions. Hence, we attempted to determine the frequency as well as the age and gender distributions of histologically diagnosed dermatological diseases in the geriatric population from skin biopsies submitted to the histopathology department of a tertiary care hospital in Southeast Nigeria. Material and methods: This is a cross-sectional retrospective hospital-based study involving all skin biopsies of patients 60 years and above, received at the Department of Histopathology, Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital, Nnewi, Nigeria from January 2004 to December 2019. Results: During the study period, 751 skin biopsies were received in the histopathology department. Of these, 142 were from patients who were older than 60 years. Thus, the overall share of geriatric patients was 18.9%. The mean age at presentation was 71.1 ± 8.6 years. The M: F was 1:1 and most of the patients belonged to the age group of 60–69 years (69 cases, 48.6%). The mean age of the male patients was 72.1±9.5 years. In the female patients, it was 70.1±7.5 years. The commonest disease category was neoplasms (91, 64.1%). Most neoplasms were malignant. There were 67/142 (47.2%) malignant lesions. Commonest was Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (30 cases) which is 21.1% of all geriatric skin biopsies and 44.8% of malignant skin biopsies. This is closely followed by melanoma (29 cases). Conclusion: Malignant neoplasms, benign neoplasms and papulosquamous disorders are the three commonest histologically diagnosed skin lesions in our geriatric population. The commonest skin malignancies in this group of patients are squamous cell carcinoma and malignant melanoma.

Keywords: geriatric, skin, Nigeria, histopathology

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
212 Structural Characterization of the 3D Printed Silicon Carbon/Carbon Fibers Nanocomposites

Authors: Saja M. Nabat Al-Ajrash, Charles Browning, Rose Eckerle, Li Cao

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A process that utilizes a combination of additive manufacturing (AM), a preceramic polymer, and a chopped carbon fiber precursorto fabricate Silicon Carbon/ Carbon fibers (SiC/C) composites have been developed. The study has shown a promising, cost-effective, and efficient route to fabricate complex SiC/C composites using additive manufacturing. A key part of this effort was the mapping of the material’s microstructure through the thickness of the composite. Microstructural features in the pyrolyzed composites through the successive AM layers, such as defects, crystal size and their distribution, interatomic spacing, chemical bonds, were investigated using high-resolution scanning and transmission electron microscopy. As a result, the microstructure developed in SiC/C composites after printing, cure, and pyrolysis has been successfully mapped through the thickness of the derived composites. Dense and nearly defect-free parts after polymer to ceramic conversion were observed. The ceramic matrix composite displayed three coexisting phases, including silicon carbide, silicon oxycarbide, and turbostratic carbon. Lattice fringes imaging and X-Ray Diffraction analysis showed well-defined SiC and turbostratic carbon features. The cross-sectional mapping of the printed-then-pyrolyzed structures has confirmed consistent structural and chemical features within the internal layers of the AM parts. Noteworthy, however, is that a crust-like area with high crystallinity has been observed in the first and last external layers. Not only do these crust-like regions have structural characteristics distinct from the internal layers, but they also have elemental distributions different than the internal layers.

Keywords: SiC, preceramic polymer, additive manufacturing, ceramic

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
211 The Three-dimensional Response of Mussel Plaque Anchoring to Wet Substrates under Directional Tensions

Authors: Yingwei Hou, Tao Liu, Yong Pang

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The paper explored the three-dimensional deformation of mussel plaques anchor to wet polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) substrates under tension stress with different angles. Mussel plaques exhibiting natural adhesive structures, have attracted significant attention for their remarkable adhesion properties. Understanding their behavior under mechanical stress, particularly in a three-dimensional context, holds immense relevance for biomimetic material design and bio-inspired adhesive development. This study employed a novel approach to investigate the 3D deformation of the PDMS substrates anchored by mussel plaques subjected to controlled tension. Utilizing our customized stereo digital image correlation technique and mechanical mechanics analyses, we found the distributions of the displacement and resultant force on the substrate became concentrated under the plaque. Adhesion and sucking mechanisms were analyzed for the mussel plaque-substrate system under tension until detachment. The experimental findings were compared with a developed model using finite element analysis and the results provide new insights into mussels’ attachment mechanism. This research not only contributes to the fundamental understanding of biological adhesion but also holds promising implications for the design of innovative adhesive materials with applications in fields such as medical adhesives, underwater technologies, and industrial bonding. The comprehensive exploration of mussel plaque behavior in three dimensions is important for advancements in biomimicry and materials science, fostering the development of adhesives that emulate nature's efficiency.

Keywords: adhesion mechanism, mytilus edulis, mussel plaque, stereo digital image correlation

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210 The Electric Car Wheel Hub Motor Work Analysis with the Use of 2D FEM Electromagnetic Method and 3D CFD Thermal Simulations

Authors: Piotr Dukalski, Bartlomiej Bedkowski, Tomasz Jarek, Tomasz Wolnik

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The article is concerned with the design of an electric in wheel hub motor installed in an electric car with two-wheel drive. It presents the construction of the motor on the 3D cross-section model. Work simulation of the motor (applicated to Fiat Panda car) and selected driving parameters such as driving on the road with a slope of 20%, driving at maximum speed, maximum acceleration of the car from 0 to 100 km/h are considered by the authors in the article. The demand for the drive power taking into account the resistance to movement was determined for selected driving conditions. The parameters of the motor operation and the power losses in its individual elements, calculated using the FEM 2D method, are presented for the selected car driving parameters. The calculated power losses are used in 3D models for thermal calculations using the CFD method. Detailed construction of thermal models with materials data, boundary conditions and losses calculated using the FEM 2D method are presented in the article. The article presents and describes calculated temperature distributions in individual motor components such as winding, permanent magnets, magnetic core, body, cooling system components. Generated losses in individual motor components and their impact on the limitation of its operating parameters are described by authors. Attention is paid to the losses generated in permanent magnets, which are a source of heat as the removal of which from inside the motor is difficult. Presented results of calculations show how individual motor power losses, generated in different load conditions while driving, affect its thermal state.

Keywords: electric car, electric drive, electric motor, thermal calculations, wheel hub motor

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
209 Infrastructure Sharing Synergies: Optimal Capacity Oversizing and Pricing

Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) deals with both substitution synergies (exchange of waste materials, fatal energy and utilities as resources for production) and infrastructure/service sharing synergies. The latter is based on the intensification of use of an asset and thus requires to balance capital costs increments with snowball effects (network externalities) for its implementation. Initial investors must specify ex-ante arrangements (cost sharing and pricing schedule) to commit toward investments in capacities and transactions. Our model investigate the decision of 2 actors trying to choose cooperatively a level of infrastructure capacity oversizing to set a plug-and-play offer to a potential entrant whose capacity requirement is randomly distributed while satisficing their own requirements. Capacity cost exhibits sub-additive property so that there is room for profitable overcapacity setting in the first period. The entrant’s willingness-to-pay for the access to the infrastructure is dependent upon its standalone cost and the capacity gap that it must complete in case the available capacity is insufficient ex-post (the complement cost). Since initial capacity choices are driven by ex-ante (expected) yield extractible from the entrant we derive the expected complement cost function which helps us defining the investors’ objective function. We first show that this curve is decreasing and convex in the capacity increments and that it is shaped by the distribution function of the potential entrant’s requirements. We then derive the general form of solutions and solve the model for uniform and triangular distributions. Depending on requirements volumes and cost assumptions different equilibria occurs. We finally analyze the effect of a per-unit subsidy a public actor would apply to foster such sharing synergies.

Keywords: capacity, cooperation, industrial symbiosis, pricing

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
208 Evidence Theory Enabled Quickest Change Detection Using Big Time-Series Data from Internet of Things

Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
207 A Two Server Poisson Queue Operating under FCFS Discipline with an ‘m’ Policy

Authors: R. Sivasamy, G. Paulraj, S. Kalaimani, N.Thillaigovindan

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For profitable businesses, queues are double-edged swords and hence the pain of long wait times in a queue often frustrates customers. This paper suggests a technical way of reducing the pain of lines through a Poisson M/M1, M2/2 queueing system operated by two heterogeneous servers with an objective of minimising the mean sojourn time of customers served under the queue discipline ‘First Come First Served with an ‘m’ policy, i.e. FCFS-m policy’. Arrivals to the system form a Poisson process of rate λ and are served by two exponential servers. The service times of successive customers at server ‘j’ are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and each of it is exponentially distributed with rate parameter μj (j=1, 2). The primary condition for implementing the queue discipline ‘FCFS-m policy’ on these service rates μj (j=1, 2) is that either (m+1) µ2 > µ1> m µ2 or (m+1) µ1 > µ2> m µ1 must be satisfied. Further waiting customers prefer the server-1 whenever it becomes available for service, and the server-2 should be installed if and only if the queue length exceeds the value ‘m’ as a threshold. Steady-state results on queue length and waiting time distributions have been obtained. A simple way of tracing the optimal service rate μ*2 of the server-2 is illustrated in a specific numerical exercise to equalize the average queue length cost with that of the service cost. Assuming that the server-1 has to dynamically adjust the service rates as μ1 during the system size is strictly less than T=(m+2) while μ2=0, and as μ1 +μ2 where μ2>0 if the system size is more than or equal to T, corresponding steady state results of M/M1+M2/1 queues have been deduced from those of M/M1,M2/2 queues. To conclude this investigation has a viable application, results of M/M1+M2/1 queues have been used in processing of those waiting messages into a single computer node and to measure the power consumption by the node.

Keywords: two heterogeneous servers, M/M1, M2/2 queue, service cost and queue length cost, M/M1+M2/1 queue

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
206 Estimation of Particle Size Distribution Using Magnetization Data

Authors: Navneet Kaur, S. D. Tiwari

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Magnetic nanoparticles possess fascinating properties which make their behavior unique in comparison to corresponding bulk materials. Superparamagnetism is one such interesting phenomenon exhibited only by small particles of magnetic materials. In this state, the thermal energy of particles become more than their magnetic anisotropy energy, and so particle magnetic moment vectors fluctuate between states of minimum energy. This situation is similar to paramagnetism of non-interacting ions and termed as superparamagnetism. The magnetization of such systems has been described by Langevin function. But, the estimated fit parameters, in this case, are found to be unphysical. It is due to non-consideration of particle size distribution. In this work, analysis of magnetization data on NiO nanoparticles is presented considering the effect of particle size distribution. Nanoparticles of NiO of two different sizes are prepared by heating freshly synthesized Ni(OH)₂ at different temperatures. Room temperature X-ray diffraction patterns confirm the formation of single phase of NiO. The diffraction lines are seen to be quite broad indicating the nanocrystalline nature of the samples. The average crystallite size are estimated to be about 6 and 8 nm. The samples are also characterized by transmission electron microscope. Magnetization of both sample is measured as function of temperature and applied magnetic field. Zero field cooled and field cooled magnetization are measured as a function of temperature to determine the bifurcation temperature. The magnetization is also measured at several temperatures in superparamagnetic region. The data are fitted to an appropriate expression considering a distribution in particle size following a least square fit procedure. The computer codes are written in PYTHON. The presented analysis is found to be very useful for estimating the particle size distribution present in the samples. The estimated distributions are compared with those determined from transmission electron micrographs.

Keywords: anisotropy, magnetization, nanoparticles, superparamagnetism

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
205 Statistical Modelling of Maximum Temperature in Rwanda Using Extreme Value Analysis

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
204 Green Supply Chain Network Optimization with Internet of Things

Authors: Sema Kayapinar, Ismail Karaoglan, Turan Paksoy, Hadi Gokcen

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Green Supply Chain Management is gaining growing interest among researchers and supply chain management. The concept of Green Supply Chain Management is to integrate environmental thinking into the Supply Chain Management. It is the systematic concept emphasis on environmental problems such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, recycling end of life products, generation of solid and hazardous waste. This study is to present a green supply chain network model integrated Internet of Things applications. Internet of Things provides to get precise and accurate information of end-of-life product with sensors and systems devices. The forward direction consists of suppliers, plants, distributions centres and sales and collect centres while, the reverse flow includes the sales and collects centres, disassembled centre, recycling and disposal centre. The sales and collection centre sells the new products are transhipped from factory via distribution centre and also receive the end-of life product according their value level. We describe green logistics activities by presenting specific examples including “recycling of the returned products and “reduction of CO2 gas emissions”. The different transportation choices are illustrated between echelons according to their CO2 gas emissions. This problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model to solve the green supply chain problems which are emerged from the environmental awareness and responsibilities. This model is solved by using Gams package program. Numerical examples are suggested to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.

Keywords: green supply chain optimization, internet of things, greenhouse gas emission, recycling

Procedia PDF Downloads 328
203 Drape Simulation by Commercial Software and Subjective Assessment of Virtual Drape

Authors: Evrim Buyukaslan, Simona Jevsnik, Fatma Kalaoglu

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Simulation of fabrics is more difficult than any other simulation due to complex mechanics of fabrics. Most of the virtual garment simulation software use mass-spring model and incorporate fabric mechanics into simulation models. The accuracy and fidelity of these virtual garment simulation software is a question mark. Drape is a subjective phenomenon and evaluation of drape has been studied since 1950’s. On the other hand, fabric and garment simulation is relatively new. Understanding drape perception of subjects when looking at fabric simulations is critical as virtual try-on becomes more of an issue by enhanced online apparel sales. Projected future of online apparel retailing is that users may view their avatars and try-on the garment on their avatars in the virtual environment. It is a well-known fact that users will not be eager to accept this innovative technology unless it is realistic enough. Therefore, it is essential to understand what users see when they are displaying fabrics in a virtual environment. Are they able to distinguish the differences between various fabrics in virtual environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate human perception when looking at a virtual fabric and determine the most visually noticeable drape parameter. To this end, five different fabrics are mechanically tested, and their drape simulations are generated by commercial garment simulation software (Optitex®). The simulation images are processed by an image analysis software to calculate drape parameters namely; drape coefficient, node severity, and peak angles. A questionnaire is developed to evaluate drape properties subjectively in a virtual environment. Drape simulation images are shown to 27 subjects and asked to rank the samples according to their questioned drape property. The answers are compared to the calculated drape parameters. The results show that subjects are quite sensitive to drape coefficient changes while they are not very sensitive to changes in node dimensions and node distributions.

Keywords: drape simulation, drape evaluation, fabric mechanics, virtual fabric

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
202 Sexual Orientation, Household Labour Division and the Motherhood Wage Penalty

Authors: Julia Hoefer Martí

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While research has consistently found a significant motherhood wage penalty for heterosexual women, where homosexual women are concerned, evidence has appeared to suggest no effect, or possibly even a wage bonus. This paper presents a model of the household with a public good that requires both a monetary expense and a labour investment, and where the household budget is shared between partners. Lower-wage partners will do relatively more of the household labour while higher-wage partners will specialise in market labour, and the arrival of a child exacerbates this split, resulting in the lower-wage partner taking on even more of the household labour in relative terms. Employers take this gender-sexuality dyad as a signal for employees’ commitment to the labour market after having a child, and use the information when setting wages after employees become parents. Given that women empirically earn lower wages than men, in a heterosexual couple the female partner will often do more of the household labour. However, as not every female partner has a lower wage, this results in an over-adjustment of wages that manifests as an unexplained motherhood wage penalty. On the other hand, in homosexual couples wage distributions are ex ante identical, and gender is no longer a useful signal to employers as to whether the partner is likely to specialise in household labour or market labour. This model is then tested using longitudinal data from the EU Standards of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) to investigate the hypothesis that women experience different wage effects of motherhood depending on their sexual orientation. While heterosexual women receive a significant motherhood wage penalty of 8-10%, homosexual mothers do not receive any significant wage bonus or penalty of motherhood, consistent with the hypothesis presented above.

Keywords: discrimination, gender, motherhood, sexual orientation, labor economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
201 Adsorption of NO and NH3 in MFI and H-ZSM5: Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors: Z. Jamalzadeh, A. Niaei, H. Erfannia

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Due to developing industries, the emission of pollutants such as NOx, SOx, and CO2 are rapidly increased. Generally, NOx is attributed to the mono nitrogen oxides of NO and NO2 that is one of the most important atmospheric contaminants. Hence, controlling the emission of nitrogen oxides is environmentally urgent. Selective catalytic reduction of NOx is one of the most common techniques for NOx removal in which zeolites have wide application due to their high performance. In zeolitic processes, the catalytic reaction occurs mostly in the pores. Therefore, investigation of the adsorption phenomena of the molecules in order to gain an insight and understand the catalytic cycle is of important. Hence, in current study, benefiting from molecular simulations, the adsorption phenomena in the nanocatalysts of SCR of NOx process was investigated in order to get a good insight of the catalysts’ behavior. The effect of cation addition to the support in the catalysts’ behavior through adsorption step was explored by Mont Carlo (MC) using Materials Studio Package. Simulation time of 1 Ns accompanying 1 fs time step, COMPASS27 Force Field and the cut off radios of 12.5 Ȧ was applied for performed runs. It was observed that the adsorption capacity increases in the presence of cations. The sorption isotherms demonstrated the behavior of type I isotherm categories and sorption capacity diminished with increase in temperature whereas an increase was observed at high pressures. Besides, NO sorption showed higher sorption capacity than NH3 in H–ZSM5. In this respect, the energy distributions signified that the molecules could adsorb in just one sorption site at the catalyst and the sorption energy of NO was stronger than the NH3 in H-ZSM5. Furthermore, the isosteric heat of sorption data showed nearly same values for the molecules; however, it indicated stronger interactions of NO molecules with H-ZSM5 zeolite compared to the isosteric heat of NH3 which was low in value.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, adsorption, NOx, ZSM5

Procedia PDF Downloads 359
200 Allele Mining for Rice Sheath Blight Resistance by Whole-Genome Association Mapping in a Tail-End Population

Authors: Naoki Yamamoto, Hidenobu Ozaki, Taiichiro Ookawa, Youming Liu, Kazunori Okada, Aiping Zheng

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Rice sheath blight is one of the destructive fungal diseases in rice. We have thought that rice sheath blight resistance is a polygenic trait. Host-pathogen interactions and secondary metabolites such as lignin and phytoalexins are likely to be involved in defense against R. solani. However, to our knowledge, it is still unknown how sheath blight resistance can be enhanced in rice breeding. To seek for an alternative genetic factor that contribute to sheath blight resistance, we mined relevant allelic variations from rice core collections created in Japan. Based on disease lesion length on detached leaf sheath, we selected 30 varieties of the top tail-end and the bottom tail-end, respectively, from the core collections to perform genome-wide association mapping. Re-sequencing reads for these varieties were used for calling single nucleotide polymorphisms among the 60 varieties to create a SNP panel, which contained 1,137,131 homozygous variant sites after filitering. Association mapping highlighted a locus on the long arm of chromosome 11, which is co-localized with three sheath blight QTLs, qShB11-2-TX, qShB11, and qSBR-11-2. Based on the localization of the trait-associated alleles, we identified an ankyryn repeat-containing protein gene (ANK-M) as an uncharacterized candidate factor for rice sheath blight resistance. Allelic distributions for ANK-M in the whole rice population supported the reliability of trait-allele associations. Gene expression characteristics were checked to evaluiate the functionality of ANK-M. Since an ANK-M homolog (OsPIANK1) in rice seems a basal defense regulator against rice blast and bacterial leaf blight, ANK-M may also play a role in the rice immune system.

Keywords: allele mining, GWAS, QTL, rice sheath blight

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
199 Ordinal Regression with Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics: A Case Study of an Orienteering Race

Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
198 Characteristics of the Particle Size Distribution and Exposure Concentrations of Nanoparticles Generated from the Laser Metal Deposition Process

Authors: Yu-Hsuan Liu, Ying-Fang Wang

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The objectives of the present study are to characterize nanoparticles generated from the laser metal deposition (LMD) process and to estimate particle concentrations deposited in the head (H), that the tracheobronchial (TB) and alveolar (A) regions, respectively. The studied LMD chamber (3.6m × 3.8m × 2.9m) is installed with a robot laser metal deposition machine. Direct-reading instrument of a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS, Model 3082, TSI Inc., St. Paul, MN, USA) was used to conduct static sampling inside the chamber for nanoparticle number concentration and particle size distribution measurements. The SMPS obtained particle number concentration at every 3 minutes, the diameter of the SMPS ranged from 11~372 nm when the aerosol and sheath flow rates were set at 0.6 and 6 L / min, respectively. The resultant size distributions were used to predict depositions of nanoparticles at the H, TB, and A regions of the respiratory tract using the UK National Radiological Protection Board’s (NRPB’s) LUDEP Software. Result that the number concentrations of nanoparticles in indoor background and LMD chamber were 4.8×10³ and 4.3×10⁵ # / cm³, respectively. However, the nanoparticles emitted from the LMD process was in the form of the uni-modal with number median diameter (NMD) and geometric standard deviation (GSD) as 142nm and 1.86, respectively. The fractions of the nanoparticles deposited on the alveolar region (A: 69.8%) were higher than the other two regions of the head region (H: 10.9%), tracheobronchial region (TB: 19.3%). This study conducted static sampling to measure the nanoparticles in the LMD process, and the results show that the fraction of particles deposited on the A region was higher than the other two regions. Therefore, applying the characteristics of nanoparticles emitted from LMD process could be provided valuable scientific-based evidence for exposure assessments in the future.

Keywords: exposure assessment, laser metal deposition process, nanoparticle, respiratory region

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197 Simulation and Synoptic Investigation of a Severe Dust Storm in Urmia Lake in the Middle East

Authors: Nasim Hossein Hamzeh, Karim Shukurov, Abbas Ranjbar Saadat Abadi, Alaa Mhawish, Christian Opp

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Deserts are the main dust sources in the world. Also, recently driedLake beds have caused environmental problems inthe surrounding areas in the world. In this study, the Urmia Lake was the source of dustfromApril 24 to April 25, 2017.The local dust storm was combined with another large-scale dust storm that originated from Saudi Arabia and Iraq 1-2 days earlier. Synoptic investigation revealed that the severe dust storm was made by a strong Black Sea cyclone and a low-pressure system over the Middle East and Central Iraq in conjunction a high-pressure system and associated with a high gradient contour and a quasi-stationary long-wave trough over the east and south of the Mediterranean Sea. Based on HYSPLIT 72 hours backward and forward trajectories, the most probable dust transport routes to and from the Urmia Lake region are estimated. Using the concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) method based on 24 hours backward and 24 hours forward trajectories, the spatial distributions of potential sources of PM10 observed in the Urmia Lake region on April 23-26, 2017. Also, the vertical profile of dust particles using the WRF-Chem model with two dust schemes showed dust ascending up to 5 km from the lake. Also, the dust schemes outputs shows that the PM10 fluctuating changes are 12 hours earlier than the measured surface PM10 at five air pollution monitoring stations around the Urmia Lake in 23-26 April 2017.

Keywords: dust storm, synoptic investigation, WRF-chem model, urmia lake, lagrangian trajectory

Procedia PDF Downloads 214
196 The Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability Impacted by the Interface with Different Components Distribution

Authors: Sheng-Bo Zhang, Huan-Hao Zhang, Zhi-Hua Chen, Chun Zheng

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In this paper, the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability has been studied numerically by using the high-resolution Roe scheme based on the two-dimensional unsteady Euler equation, which was caused by the interaction between shock wave and the helium circular light gas cylinder with different component distributions. The numerical results further discuss the deformation process of the gas cylinder, the wave structure of the flow field and quantitatively analyze the characteristic dimensions (length, height, and central axial width) of the gas cylinder, the volume compression ratio of the cylinder over time. In addition, the flow mechanism of shock-driven interface gas mixing is analyzed from multiple perspectives by combining it with the flow field pressure, velocity, circulation, and gas mixing rate. Then the effects of different initial component distribution conditions on interface instability are investigated. The results show when the diffusion interface transit to the sharp interface, the reflection coefficient gradually increases on both sides of the interface. When the incident shock wave interacts with the cylinder, the transmission of the shock wave will transit from conventional transmission to unconventional transmission. At the same time, the reflected shock wave is gradually strengthened, and the transmitted shock wave is gradually weakened, which leads to an increase in the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. Moreover, the Atwood number on both sides of the interface also increases as the diffusion interface transit to the sharp interface, which leads to an increase in the Rayleigh-Taylor instability and the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. Therefore, the increase in instability will lead to an increase the circulation, resulting in an increase in the growth rate of gas mixing rate.

Keywords: shock wave, He light cylinder, Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, Gaussian distribution

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195 Pregnant Women in Substance Abuse: Transition of Characteristics and Mining of Association from Teds-a 2011 to 2018

Authors: Md Tareq Ferdous Khan, Shrabanti Mazumder, MB Rao

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Background: Substance use during pregnancy is a longstanding public health problem that results in severe consequences for pregnant women and fetuses. Methods: Eight (2011-2018) datasets on pregnant women’s admissions are extracted from TEDS-A. Distributions of sociodemographic, substance abuse behaviors, and clinical characteristics are constructed and compared over the years for trends by the Cochran-Armitage test. Market basket analysis is used in mining the association among polysubstance abuse. Results: Over the years, pregnant woman admissions as the percentage of total and female admissions remain stable, where total annual admissions range from 1.54 to about 2 million with the female share of 33.30% to 35.61%. Pregnant women aged 21-29, 12 or more years of education, white race, unemployed, holding independent living status are among the most vulnerable. Concerns prevail on a significant number of polysubstance users, young age at first use, frequency of daily users, and records of prior admissions (60%). Trends of abused primary substances show a significant rise in heroin (66%) and methamphetamine (46%) over the years, although the latest year shows a considerable downturn. On the other hand, significant decreasing patterns are evident for alcohol (43%), marijuana or hashish (24%), cocaine or crack (23%), other opiates or synthetics (36%), and benzodiazepines (29%). Basket analysis reveals some patterns of co-occurrence of substances consistent over the years. Conclusions: This comprehensive study can work as a reference to identify the most vulnerable groups based on their characteristics and deal with the most hazardous substances from their evidence of co-occurrence.

Keywords: basket analysis, pregnant women, substance abuse, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
194 Distribution and Historical Trends of PAHs Deposition in Recent Sediment Cores of the Imo River, SE Nigeria

Authors: Miranda I. Dosunmu, Orok E. Oyo-Ita, Inyang O. Oyo-Ita

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of priority listed organic pollutants due to their carcinogenicity, mutagenity, acute toxicity and persistency in the environment. The distribution and historical changes of PAHs contamination in recent sediment cores from the Imo River were investigated using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometer. The concentrations of total PAHs (TPAHs) ranging from 402.37 ng/g dry weight (dw) at the surface layer of the Estuary zone (ESC6; 0-5 cm) to 92,388.59 ng/g dw at the near surface layer of the Afam zone (ASC5; 5-10 cm) indicate that PAHs contamination was localized not only between sample sites but also within the same cores. Sediment-depth profiles for the four (Afam, Mangrove, Estuary and illegal Petroleum refinery) cores revealed irregular distribution patterns in the TPAH concentrations except the fact that these levels became maximized at the near surface layers (5-10 cm) corresponding to a geological time-frame of about 1996-2004. This time scale coincided with the period of intensive bunkering and oil pipeline vandalization by the Niger Delta militant groups. Also a general slight decline was found in the TPAHs levels from near the surface layers (5-10 cm) to the most recent top layers (0-5 cm) of the cores, attributable to the recent effort by the Nigerian government in clamping down the illegal activity of the economic saboteurs. Therefore, the recent amnesty period granted to the militant groups should be extended. Although mechanism of perylene formation still remains enigmatic, examination of its distributions down cores indicates natural biogenic, pyrogenic and petrogenic origins for the compound at different zones. Thus, the characteristic features of the Imo River environment provide a means of tracing diverse origins for perylene.

Keywords: perylene, historical trend, distribution, origin, Imo River

Procedia PDF Downloads 251
193 Finite Deformation of a Dielectric Elastomeric Spherical Shell Based on a New Nonlinear Electroelastic Constitutive Theory

Authors: Odunayo Olawuyi Fadodun

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Dielectric elastomers (DEs) are a type of intelligent materials with salient features like electromechanical coupling, lightweight, fast actuation speed, low cost and high energy density that make them good candidates for numerous engineering applications. This paper adopts a new nonlinear electroelastic constitutive theory to examine radial deformation of a pressurized thick-walled spherical shell of soft dielectric material with compliant electrodes on its inner and outer surfaces. A general formular for the internal pressure, which depends on the deformation and a potential difference between boundary electrodes or uniform surface charge distributions, is obtained in terms of special function. To illustrate the effects of an applied electric field on the mechanical behaviour of the shell, three different energy functions with distinct mechanical properties are employed for numerical purposes. The observed behaviour of the shells is preserved in the presence of an applied electric field, and the influence of the field due to a potential difference declines more slowly with the increasing deformation to that produced by a surface charge. Counterpart results are then presented for the thin-walled shell approximation as a limiting case of a thick-walled shell without restriction on the energy density. In the absence of internal pressure, it is obtained that inflation is caused by the application of an electric field. The resulting numerical solutions of the theory presented in this work are in agreement with those predicted by the generally adopted Dorfmann and Ogden model.

Keywords: constitutive theory, elastic dielectric, electroelasticity, finite deformation, nonlinear response, spherical shell

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
192 Facile Synthesis and Characterization of Heterostructure Core-Shell Silver-Silica Nanocomposite for Humidity Sensing

Authors: Fatai O. Oladoyinbo, Felix O. Sanni, Akinwunmi Fatai, Kamoli A. Amusa, Saheed A. Ganiyu, Wasiu B. Ayinde, Tajudeen A. Afolabi, Enock O. Dare

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Silver (Ag) and silica (SiO2) nanoparticles were synthesized using the chemical reduction method from silver nitrate and sodium silicate, respectively. X-ray Diffraction (XRD), High-Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Uv-Visible spectroscopy, Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy and N2 adsorption-desorption techniques were utilized to characterize the composition and structure of the samples. The crystallinity pattern of Ag nanoparticles was indexed as (111), (200), (220) and (311), which allowed reflections from face-centered cubic silver. XRD of SiO2 showed good porosity with a broad-spectrum band at Bragg’s angle 2θ of 22° while that of Ag-SiO2 showed distinct peaks at 2θ values of 39°, 43°, 66° and 79°. The XRD result agreed perfectly with the SEM and HRTEM images which showed Ag-SiO2 isotropic and anisotropic under the varying concentration of reactants. The elemental composition of Ag-SiO2, as displayed by EDX, confirmed Ag enrichment in the Ag-SiO2 heterostructure. The Uv-Visible peak at 421 nm confirmed the Surface Plasmon Resonance absorption peak of silver nanoparticles. N2 adsorption-desorption result showed a broad band of Ag-SiO2 from 3 to 8 nm, which indicated relatively narrow pore size distributions. Humidity sensing measurements performed in a controlled humidity chamber showed very high sensitivity with a sensitivity factor (SF) of 4.63 and high linearity with a steady decrease in resistance to humidity from 880 Ω at 10% RH to 190 Ω at 100% RH, indicating that Ag-SiO2 nanocomposite is a good sensing material with high sensitivity and linearity.

Keywords: silver, silica, nanocomposite, synthesis, heterostructure, core shell

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
191 Numerical Modeling of Film Cooling of the Surface at Non-Uniform Heat Flux Distributions on the Wall

Authors: M. V. Bartashevich

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The problem of heat transfer at thin laminar liquid film is solved numerically. A thin film of liquid flows down an inclined surface under conditions of variable heat flux on the wall. The use of thin films of liquid allows to create the effective technologies for cooling surfaces. However, it is important to investigate the most suitable cooling regimes from a safety point of view, in order, for example, to avoid overheating caused by the ruptures of the liquid film, and also to study the most effective cooling regimes depending on the character of the distribution of the heat flux on the wall, as well as the character of the blowing of the film surface, i.e., the external shear stress on its surface. In the statement of the problem on the film surface, the heat transfer coefficient between the liquid and gas is set, as well as a variable external shear stress - the intensity of blowing. It is shown that the combination of these factors - the degree of uniformity of the distribution of heat flux on the wall and the intensity of blowing, affects the efficiency of heat transfer. In this case, with an increase in the intensity of blowing, the cooling efficiency increases, reaching a maximum, and then decreases. It is also shown that the more uniform the heating of the wall, the more efficient the heat sink. A separate study was made for the flow regime along the horizontal surface when the liquid film moves solely due to external stress influence. For this mode, the analytical solution is used for the temperature at the entrance region for further numerical calculations downstream. Also the influence of the degree of uniformity of the heat flux distribution on the wall and the intensity of blowing of the film surface on the heat transfer efficiency was also studied. This work was carried out at the Kutateladze Institute of Thermophysics SB RAS (Russia) and supported by FASO Russia.

Keywords: Heat Flux, Heat Transfer Enhancement, External Blowing, Thin Liquid Film

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
190 Analytical Method for Seismic Analysis of Shaft-Tunnel Junction under Longitudinal Excitations

Authors: Jinghua Zhang

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Shaft-tunnel junction is a typical case of the structural nonuniformity in underground structures. The shaft and the tunnel possess greatly different structural features. Even under uniform excitations, they tend to behave discrepantly. Studies on shaft-tunnel junctions are mainly performed numerically. Shaking table tests are also conducted. Although many numerical and experimental data are obtained, an analytical solution still has great merits of gaining more insights into the shaft-tunnel problem. This paper will try to remedy the situation. Since the seismic responses of shaft-tunnel junctions are very related to directions of the excitations, they are studied in two scenarios: the longitudinal-excitation scenario and the transverse-excitation scenario. The former scenario will be addressed in this paper. Given that responses of the tunnel are highly dependent on the shaft, the analytical solutions would be developed firstly for the vertical shaft. Then, the seismic responses of the tunnel would be discussed. Since vertical shafts bear a resemblance to rigid caissons, the solution proposed in this paper is derived by introducing terms of shaft-tunnel and soil-tunnel interactions into equations originally developed for rigid caissons. The validity of the solution is examined by a validation model computed by finite element method. The mutual influence between the shaft and the tunnel is introduced. The soil-structure interactions are discussed parametrically based on the proposed equations. The shaft-tunnel relative displacement and the soil-tunnel relative stiffness are found to be the most important parameters affecting the magnitudes and distributions of the internal forces of the tunnel. A hinge-joint at the shaft-tunnel junction could significantly reduce the degree of stress concentration compared with a rigid joint.

Keywords: analytical solution, longitudinal excitation, numerical validation , shaft-tunnel junction

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
189 Diffuse CO₂ Degassing to Study Blind Geothermal Systems: The Acoculco, Puebla (Mexico) Case Study

Authors: Mirna Guevara, Edgar Santoyo, Daniel Perez-Zarate, Erika Almirudis

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The Acoculco caldera located in Puebla (Mexico) has been preliminary identified as a blind hot-dry rock geothermal system. Two drilled wells suggest the existence of high temperatures >300°C and non-conventional tools are been applied to study this system. A comprehensive survey of soil-gas (CO₂) flux measurements (1,500 sites) was carried out during the dry seasons over almost two years (2015 and 2016). Isotopic analyses of δ¹³CCO₂ were performed to discriminate the origin source of the CO2 fluxes. The soil CO2 flux measurements were made in situ by the accumulation chamber method, whereas gas samples for δ13CCO2 were selectively collected from the accumulation chamber with evacuated gas vials via a septum. Two anomalous geothermal zones were identified as a result of these campaigns: Los Azufres (19°55'29.4'' N; 98°08'39.9'' W; 2,839 masl) and Alcaparrosa (19°55'20.6'' N; 98°08'38.3'' W; 2,845 masl). To elucidate the origin of the C in soil CO₂ fluxes, the isotopic signature of δ¹³C was used. Graphical Statistical Analysis (GSA) and a three end-member mixing diagram were used to corroborate the presence of distinctive statistical samples, and trends for the diffuse gas fluxes. Spatial and temporal distributions of the CO₂ fluxes were studied. High CO₂ emission rates up to 38,217 g/m2/d and 33,706 g/m2/d were measured for the Los Azufres and Alcaparrosa respectively; whereas the δ¹³C signatures showed values ranging from -3.4 to -5.5 o/oo for both zones, confirming their magmatic origin. This study has provided a valuable framework to set the direction of further exploration campaigns in the Acoculco caldera. Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge the funding received from CeMIE-Geo P09 project (SENER-CONACyT).

Keywords: accumulation chamber method, carbon dioxide, diffusive degassing, geothermal exploration

Procedia PDF Downloads 265
188 Preparation of Flurbiprofen Derivative for Enhanced Brain Penetration

Authors: Jungkyun Im

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Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are effective for relieving pain and reducing inflammation. They are nonselective inhibitors of two isoforms of COX, cyclooxygenase-1 (COX-1) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), and thereby inhibiting the production of hormone-like lipid compounds such as, prostaglandins and thromboxanes which cause inflammation, pain, fever, platelet aggregation, etc. In addition, recently there are many research articles reporting the neuroprotective effect of NSAIDs in neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD). However, the clinical use of NSAIDs in these diseases is limited by low brain distribution. Therefore, in order to assist the in-depth investigation on the pharmaceutical mechanism of flurbiprofen in neuroprotection and to make flurbiprofen a more potent drug to prevent or alleviate neurodegenerative diseases, delivery of flurbiprofen to brain should be effective and sufficient amount of flurbiprofen must penetrate the BBB thus gaining access into the patient’s brain. We have recently developed several types of guanidine-rich molecular carriers with high molecular weights and good water solubility that readily cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and display efficient distributions in the mouse brain. The G8 (having eight guanidine groups) molecular carrier based on D-sorbitol was found to be very effective in delivering anticancer drugs to a mouse brain. In the present study, employing the same molecular carrier, we prepared the flurbiprofen conjugate and studied its BBB permeation by mouse tissue distribution study. Flurbiprofen was attached to a molecular carrier with a fluorescein probe and multiple terminal guanidiniums. The conjugate was found to internalize into live cells and readily cross the BBB to enter the mouse brain. Our novel synthetic flurbiprofen conjugate will hopefully delivery NSAIDs into brain, and is therefore applicable to the neurodegenerative diseases treatment or prevention.

Keywords: flurbiprofen, drug delivery, molecular carrier, organic synthesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 231
187 Derivation of a Risk-Based Level of Service Index for Surface Street Network Using Reliability Analysis

Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
186 Reservoir Characterization using Comparative Petrophysical Testing Approach Acquired with Facies Architecture Properties Analysis

Authors: Axel Priambodo, Dwiharso Nugroho

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Studies conducted to map the reservoir properties based on facies architecture in which to determine the distribution of the petrophysical properties and calculate hydrocarbon reserves in study interval. Facies Architecture analysis begins with stratigraphic correlation that indicates the area is divided into different system tracts. The analysis of distribution patterns and compiling core analysis with facies architecture model show that there are three estuarine facies appear. Formation evaluation begins with shale volume calculation using Asquith-Krygowski and Volan Triangle Method. Proceed to the calculation of the total and effective porosity using the Bateman-Konen and Volan Triangle Method. After getting the value of the porosity calculation was continued to determine the effective water saturation and non-effective by including parameters of water resistivity and resistivity clay. The results of the research show that the Facies Architecture on the field in divided into three main facies which are Estuarine Channel, Estuarine Sand Bar, and Tidal Flat. The petrophysics analysis are done by comparing different methods also shows that the Volan Triangle Method does not give a better result of the Volume Shale than the Gamma Ray Method, but on the other hand, the Volan Triangle Methode is better on calculating porosity compared to the Bateman-Konen Method. The effective porosity distributions are affected by the distribution of the facies. Estuarine Sand Bar has a low porosity number and Estuarine Channel has a higher number of the porosity. The effective water saturation is controlled by structure where on the closure zone the water saturation is lower than the area beneath it. It caused by the hydrocarbon accumulation on the closure zone.

Keywords: petrophysics, geology, petroleum, reservoir

Procedia PDF Downloads 326
185 Predicting Stem Borer Density in Maize Using RapidEye Data and Generalized Linear Models

Authors: Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Tobias Landmann, Richard Kyalo, George Ong’amo, Bruno Le Ru

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is a major staple food crop in Africa, particularly in the eastern region of the continent. The maize growing area in Africa spans over 25 million ha and 84% of rural households in Africa cultivate maize mainly as a means to generate food and income. Average maize yields in Sub Saharan Africa are 1.4 t/ha as compared to global average of 2.5–3.9 t/ha due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In East Africa, yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% to 40% of the total production. The objective of the present study was therefore to predict stem borer larvae density in maize fields using RapidEye reflectance data and generalized linear models (GLMs). RapidEye images were captured for a test site in Kenya (Machakos) in January and in February 2015. Stem borer larva numbers were modeled using GLMs assuming Poisson (Po) and negative binomial (NB) distributions with error with log arithmetic link. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were employed to assess the models performance using a leave one-out cross-validation approach. Results showed that NB models outperformed Po ones in all study sites. RMSE and RPD ranged between 0.95 and 2.70, and between 2.39 and 6.81, respectively. Overall, all models performed similar when used the January and the February image data. We conclude that reflectance data from RapidEye data can be used to estimate stem borer larvae density. The developed models could to improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers using various integrated pest management (IPM) protocols.

Keywords: maize, stem borers, density, RapidEye, GLM

Procedia PDF Downloads 496