Search results for: empirical model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18062

Search results for: empirical model

17582 Numerical Simulations of the Transition Flow of Model Propellers for Predicting Open Water Performance

Authors: Huilan Yao, Huaixin Zhang

Abstract:

Simulations of the transition flow of model propellers are important for predicting hydrodynamic performance and studying scale effects. In this paper, the transition flow of a model propeller under different loadings are simulated using a transition model provided by STAR-CCM+, and the influence of turbulence intensity (TI) on the transition, especially friction and pressure components of propeller performance, was studied. Before that, the transition model was applied to simulate the transition flow of a flat plate and an airfoil. Predicted transitions agree well with experimental results. Then, the transition model was applied for propeller simulations in open water, and the influence of TI was studied. Under the heavy and moderate loadings, thrust and torque of the propeller predicted by the transition model (different TI) and two turbulence models are very close and agree well with measurements. However, under the light loading, only the transition model with low TI predicts the most accurate results. Above all, the friction components of propeller performance predicted by the transition model with different TI have obvious difference.

Keywords: transition flow, model propellers, hydrodynamic performance, numerical simulation

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17581 Strategic Model of Implementing E-Learning Using Funnel Model

Authors: Mohamed Jama Madar, Oso Wilis

Abstract:

E-learning is the application of information technology in the teaching and learning process. This paper presents the Funnel model as a solution for the problems of implementation of e-learning in tertiary education institutions. While existing models such as TAM, theory-based e-learning and pedagogical model have been used over time, they have generally been found to be inadequate because of their tendencies to treat materials development, instructional design, technology, delivery and governance as separate and isolated entities. Yet it is matching components that bring framework of e-learning strategic implementation. The Funnel model enhances all these into one and applies synchronously and asynchronously to e-learning implementation where the only difference is modalities. Such a model for e-learning implementation has been lacking. The proposed Funnel model avoids ad-ad-hoc approach which has made other systems unused or inefficient, and compromised educational quality. Therefore, the proposed Funnel model should help tertiary education institutions adopt and develop effective and efficient e-learning system which meets users’ requirements.

Keywords: e-learning, pedagogical, technology, strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 429
17580 Educational Deprivation and Their Determinants in India: Evidence from National Sample Survey

Authors: Mukesh Ranjan

Abstract:

Applying probit model on the micro data of NSS 71st round on education for understanding the access to education post the passage of Right to Education act,2009 in India. The empirical analysis shows that at all India level the mean age of enrollment in school is 5.5 years and drop-out age is around 14 years (or studied up to class 7) and around 60 percent females never get enrolled in any school in their lifetime. Nearly 20 percent children in Bihar never seen school and surprisingly, the relatively developed states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have more than one-third of the children and half of the children in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa as educationally wasted. The relative contribution in educational wastage is maximum by Bengal (10 %) while UP contributed a maximum of 30 % in educational non-enrollment in the country. Educational wastage is more likely to increase with age. Marriage is a resistive factor in getting education. Muslims are educationally more deprived than Hindus. Larger family and rich household are less likely to be educationally deprived. Major reasons for drop-out until 9 years were lack of interest in education and financial constraint; between 10-12 years, lack of interest and unable to cope up with studies and post 12 years financial constraint, marriage and other household reasons.

Keywords: probit model, educational wastage, educational non-enrollment, educational deprivation

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17579 Geotechnical Characterization of Residual Soil for Deterministic Landslide Assessment

Authors: Vera Karla S. Caingles, Glen A. Lorenzo

Abstract:

Soil, as the main material of landslides, plays a vital role in landslide assessment. An efficient and accurate method of doing an assessment is significantly important to prevent damage of properties and loss of lives. The study has two phases: to establish an empirical correlation of the residual soil thickness with the slope angle and to investigate the geotechnical characteristics of residual soil. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to establish the slope map and to program sampling points for field investigation. Physical and index property tests were undertaken on the 20 soil samples obtained from the area with Pliocene-Pleistocene geology and different slope angle in Kibawe, Bukidnon. The regression analysis result shows that the best fitting model that can describe the soil thickness-slope angle relationship is an exponential function. The physical property results revealed that soils contain a high percentage of clay and silts ranges from 41% - 99.52%. Based on the index properties test results, the soil exhibits a high degree of plasticity and expansion but not collapsible. It is deemed that this compendium will serve as primary data for slope stability analysis and deterministic landslide assessment.

Keywords: collapsibility, correlation, expansiveness, landslide, plasticity

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17578 The Grand Unified Theory of Everything as a Generalization to the Standard Model Called as the General Standard Model

Authors: Amir Deljoo

Abstract:

The endeavor to comprehend the existence have been the center of thought for human in form of different disciplines and now basically in physics as the theory of everything. Here, after a brief review of the basic frameworks of thought, and a history of thought since ancient up to present, a logical methodology is presented based on a core axiom after which a function, a proto-field and then a coordinates are explained. Afterwards a generalization to Standard Model is proposed as General Standard Model which is believed to be the base of the Unified Theory of Everything.

Keywords: general relativity, grand unified theory, quantum mechanics, standard model, theory of everything

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17577 Predicting Wearable Technology Readiness in a South African Government Department: Exploring the Influence of Wearable Technology Acceptance and Positive Attitude

Authors: Henda J Thomas, Cornelia PJ Harmse, Cecile Schultz

Abstract:

Wearables are one of the technologies that will flourish within the fourth industrial revolution and digital transformation arenas, allowing employers to integrate collected data into organisational information systems. The study aimed to investigate whether wearable technology readiness can predict employees’ acceptance to wear wearables in the workplace. The factors of technology readiness predisposition that predict acceptance and positive attitudes towards wearable use in the workplace were examined. A quantitative research approach was used. The population consisted of 8 081 South African Department of Employment and Labour employees (DEL). Census sampling was used, and questionnaires to collect data were sent electronically to all 8 081 employees, 351 questionnaires were received back. The measuring instrument called the Technology Readiness and Acceptance Model (TRAM) was used in this study. Four hypotheses were formulated to investigate the relationship between readiness and acceptance of wearables in the workplace. The results found consistent predictions of technology acceptance (TA) by eagerness, optimism, and discomfort in the technology readiness (TR) scales. The TR scales of optimism and eagerness were consistent positive predictors of the TA scales, while discomfort proved to be a negative predictor for two of the three TA scales. Insecurity was found not to be a predictor of TA. It was recommended that the digital transformation policy of the DEL should be revised. Wearables in the workplace should be embraced from the viewpoint of convenience, automation, and seamless integration with the DEL information systems. The empirical contribution of this study can be seen in the fact that positive attitude emerged as a factor that extends the TRAM. In this study, positive attitude is identified as a new dimension to the TRAM not found in the original TA model and subsequent studies of the TRAM. Furthermore, this study found that Perceived Usefulness (PU) and Behavioural Intention to Use and (BIU) could not be separated but formed one factor. The methodological contribution of this study can lead to the development of a Wearable Readiness and Acceptance Model (WRAM). To the best of our knowledge, no author has yet introduced the WRAM into the body of knowledge.

Keywords: technology acceptance model, technology readiness index, technology readiness and acceptance model, wearable devices, wearable technology, fourth industrial revolution

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17576 Definition of a Computing Independent Model and Rules for Transformation Focused on the Model-View-Controller Architecture

Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

Abstract:

This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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17575 Cost Benefit Analysis and Adjustments of Corporate Social Responsibility in the Airline Industry

Authors: Roman Asatryan

Abstract:

The decision-making processes in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) among firms in general and airlines in particular have to do with the benefits that accrue through those investments. The crux of the matter is not whether to invest in CSR or not, but rather, how firms can quantify the benefits derived from such investments. This paper analyzes the cost benefit adjustment strategies for firms in the airline industry in their CSR strategy adoption and implementation. The adjustment strategies identified will enable firms in the airline industry to have a basis for determining the worth of such CSR investments. This paper discusses the cost and benefit analysis model in order to understand the ways airlines can reduce costs and increase returns on CSR, or balance the cost and benefits. The analysis from this study points to the fact that economic concepts especially the CBA are useful, though they are not without challenges. The challenge arises when it is problematic to express the real impact of the externality in monetary terms. The use of rational maximization of the gains may seem to be a rather optimistic goal mainly because of environmental variability, perceptual uncertainty, and imperfect knowledge about the potential externality. This paper concludes that the CBA model gives a basic understanding of the motivations for investing in intangible assets like CSR. Consequently, it sets the tone for formulating relevant hypothesis in empirical studies in investment in CSR in particular and other intangible assets in business operations.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, corporate social responsibility, airline industry

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17574 1D Velocity Model for the Gobi-Altai Region from Local Earthquakes

Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

Abstract:

We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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17573 Entrepreneurship Education and Student Entrepreneurial Intention: A Comprehensive Review, Synthesis of Empirical Findings, and Strategic Insights for Future Research Advancements

Authors: Abdul Waris Jalili, Yanqing Wang, Som Suor

Abstract:

This research paper explores the relationship between entrepreneurship education and students' entrepreneurial intentions. It aims to determine if entrepreneurship education reliably predicts students' intention to become entrepreneurs and how and when this relationship occurs. This study aims to investigate the predictive relationship between entrepreneurship education and student entrepreneurial intentions. The goal is to understand the factors that influence this relationship and to identify any mediating or moderating factors. A thorough and systematic search and review of empirical articles published between 2013 and 2023 were conducted. Three databases, Google Scholar, Science Direct, and PubMed, were explored to gather relevant studies. Criteria such as reporting empirical results, publication in English, and addressing the research questions were used to select 35 papers for analysis. The collective findings of the reviewed studies suggest a generally positive relationship between entrepreneurship education and student entrepreneurial intentions. However, recent findings indicate that this relationship may be more complex than previously thought. Mediators and moderators have been identified, highlighting instances where entrepreneurship education indirectly influences student entrepreneurial intentions. The review also emphasizes the need for more robust research designs to establish causality in this field. This research adds to the existing literature by providing a comprehensive review of the relationship between entrepreneurship education and student entrepreneurial intentions. It highlights the complexity of this relationship and the importance of considering mediators and moderators. The study also calls for future research to explore different facets of entrepreneurship education independently and examine complex relationships more comprehensively.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intention, entrepreneurial self-efficacy

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17572 Semi Empirical Equations for Peak Shear Strength of Rectangular Reinforced Concrete Walls

Authors: Ali Kezmane, Said Boukais, Mohand Hamizi

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of reinforced concrete walls with rectangular cross section. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal shear wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood and Barda equations. Subsequently, nominal shear wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate shear wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate shear strength. Two new semi empirical equations are developed using data from tests of 57 walls for transitions walls and 27 for slender walls with the objective of improving the prediction of peak strength of walls with the most possible accurate.

Keywords: shear strength, reinforced concrete walls, rectangular walls, shear walls, models

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17571 Banking Performance and Political Economy: Using ARDL Model

Authors: Marwen Ghouil, Jamel Eddine Mkadmi

Abstract:

Banking performance is the pillar and goal of all banking activity and its impact on economic policy. First, researchers defined the principles for assessing and modeling bank performance, and then theories and models explaining bank performance were developed. The importance of credit as a means of financing businesses in most developing countries has led to questions about the effects of financial liberalisation on increased banking competition. In Tunisia, as in many other countries, the liberalization of financial services in general and of banks' activities has not ceased to evolve. The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of banking performance for 8 Tunisian banks and their impact on economic policy during the Arab Spring. We used cointegration analysis and the ARDL Panel model, explaining using total assets, bank credits, guarantees, and bank size as performance drivers. The correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation relationship between total assets, bank credits, guarantees, and bank size and bank performance. Long-term empirical results show that bank loans, guarantees, bank size, and total assets have a positive and significant impact on bank performance. This means that bank credits, guarantees, bank size, and total assets are very important determinants of bank performance in Tunisia.

Keywords: bank performance, economic policy, finance, economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
17570 An Elbow Biomechanical Model and Its Coefficients Adjustment

Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

Abstract:

Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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17569 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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17568 Surveying Energy Dissipation in Stepped Spillway Using Finite Element Modeling

Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

Abstract:

Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

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17567 Millennials' Career Expectations: Exploring Attitudes and Individual Differences in Croatia

Authors: Lovorka Galetić, Maja Klindžić, Ivana Načinović Braje

Abstract:

Generation Y individuals or Millennials are known for their unique views, work values and motivational needs which implies that, in order to attract and retain those individuals, activities in the area of career management should be given special attention by HRM managers. After a theoretical background on Millennials’ life and work attitudes, an empirical research on career preferences of Millennials in Croatia was described. Empirical research was conducted among 249 members of generation Y. The data analysis revealed that respondents generally perceive promotion opportunities as the most important career aspect; however, job security and work-life balance are almost as important. Furthermore, it was shown that Generation Y is not necessarily a homogenous group. More precisely, women assign greater importance than men to work-life balance and job security. Therefore, HRM managers should adapt career planning activities not only with respect to generational preferences, but individual characteristics as well.

Keywords: career, individual differences, millennials, work values

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17566 Assessing Carbon Stock and Sequestration of Reforestation Species on Old Mining Sites in Morocco Using the DNDC Model

Authors: Nabil Elkhatri, Mohamed Louay Metougui, Ngonidzashe Chirinda

Abstract:

Mining activities have left a legacy of degraded landscapes, prompting urgent efforts for ecological restoration. Reforestation holds promise as a potent tool to rehabilitate these old mining sites, with the potential to sequester carbon and contribute to climate change mitigation. This study focuses on evaluating the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species in the context of Morocco's mining areas, employing the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The research is grounded in recognizing the need to connect theoretical models with practical implementation, ensuring that reforestation efforts are informed by accurate and context-specific data. Field data collection encompasses growth patterns, biomass accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates, establishing an empirical foundation for the study's analyses. By integrating the collected data with the DNDC model, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of carbon dynamics within reforested ecosystems on old mining sites. The major findings reveal varying sequestration rates among different reforestation species, indicating the potential for species-specific optimization of reforestation strategies to enhance carbon capture. This research's significance lies in its potential to contribute to sustainable land management practices and climate change mitigation strategies. By quantifying the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species, the study serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, land managers, and practitioners involved in ecological restoration and carbon management. Ultimately, the study aligns with global objectives to rejuvenate degraded landscapes while addressing pressing climate challenges.

Keywords: carbon stock, carbon sequestration, DNDC model, ecological restoration, mining sites, Morocco, reforestation, sustainable land management.

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17565 Monitoring Three-Dimensional Models of Tree and Forest by Using Digital Close-Range Photogrammetry

Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

Abstract:

In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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17564 A Mathematical-Based Formulation of EEG Fluctuations

Authors: Razi Khalafi

Abstract:

Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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17563 Performance and Availability Analysis of 2N Redundancy Models

Authors: Yutae Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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17562 Organisational Blogging: Reviewing Its Effectiveness as an Organisational Learning Tool

Authors: Gavin J. Baxter, Mark H. Stansfield

Abstract:

This paper reviews the internal use of blogs and their potential effectiveness as organisational learning tools. Prior to and since the emergence of the concept of ‘Enterprise 2.0’ there still remains a lack of empirical evidence associated with how organisations are applying social media tools and whether they are effective towards supporting organisational learning. Surprisingly, blogs, one of the more traditional social media tools, still remains under-researched in the context of ‘Enterprise 2.0’ and organisational learning. The aim of this paper is to identify the theoretical linkage between blogs and organisational learning in addition to reviewing prior research on organisational blogging with a view towards exploring why this area remains under-researched and identifying what needs to be done to try and move the area forward. Through a review of the literature, one of the principal findings of this paper is that organisational blogs, dependent on their use, do have a mutual compatibility with the interpretivist aspect of organisational learning. This paper further advocates that further empirical work in this subject area is required to substantiate this theoretical assumption.

Keywords: Enterprise 2.0, blogs, organisational learning, social media tools

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17561 A Mathematical Equation to Calculate Stock Price of Different Growth Model

Authors: Weiping Liu

Abstract:

This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

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17560 The Determinant Factors of Technology Adoption for Improving Firm’s Performance; Toward a Conceptual Model

Authors: Zainal Arifin, Avanti Fontana

Abstract:

Considering that TOE framework is the most useful instrument for studying technology adoption in firm context, this paper will analyze the influence of technological, organizational and environmental (TOE) factors to the Dynamic capabilities (DCs) associated with technology adoption strategy for improving the firm’s performance. Focusing on the determinant factors of technology adoption at the firm level, the study will contribute to the broader study of resource base view (RBV) and dynamic capability (DC). There is no study connecting directly the TOE factors to the DCs, this paper proposes technology adoption as a functional competence/capability which mediates a relationship between technology adoptions with firm’s performance. The study wants to show a conceptual model of the indirect effects of DCs at the firm level, which can be key predictors of firm performance in dynamic business environment. The results of this research is mostly relevant to top corporate executives (BOD) or top management team (TMT) who seek to provide some supporting ‘hardware’ content and condition such as technological factors, organizational factors, environmental factors, and to improve firm's ‘software ‘ ability such as adaptive capability, absorptive capability and innovative capability, in order to achieve a successful technology adoption in organization. There are also mediating factors which are elaborated at this paper; timing and external network. A further research for showing its empirical results is highly recommended.

Keywords: technology adoption, TOE framework, dynamic capability, resources based view

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17559 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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17558 Numerical Solutions of Fractional Order Epidemic Model

Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

Abstract:

The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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17557 Modeling Factors Influencing Online Shopping Intention among Consumers in Nigeria: A Proposed Framework

Authors: Abubakar Mukhtar Yakasai, Muhammad Tahir Jan

Abstract:

Purpose: This paper is aimed at exploring factors influencing online shopping intention among the young consumers in Nigeria. Design/Methodology/approach: The paper adopted and extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) as the basis for literature review. Additionally, the paper proposed a framework with the inclusion of culture as a moderating factor of consumer online shopping intention among consumers in Nigeria. Findings: Despite high rate of internet penetration in Nigerian, as well as the rapid advancement of online shopping in the world, little attention was paid to this important revolution specifically among Nigeria’s consumers. Based on the review of extant literature, the TAM extended to include perceived risk and enjoyment (PR and PE) was discovered to be a better alternative framework for predicting Nigeria’s young consumers’ online shopping intention. The moderating effect of culture in the proposed model is shown to help immensely in ascertaining differences, if any, between various cultural groups among online shoppers in Nigeria. Originality/ value: The critical analysis of different factors will assist practitioners (like online retailers, e-marketing managers, website developers, etc.) by signifying which combinations of factors can best predict consumer online shopping behaviour in particular instances, thereby resulting in effective value delivery. Online shopping is a newly adopted technology in Nigeria, hence the paper will give a clear focus for effective e-marketing strategy. In addition, the proposed framework in this paper will guide future researchers by providing a tool for systematic evaluation and testing of real empirical situation of online shopping in Nigeria.

Keywords: online shopping, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived enjoyment, technology acceptance model, Nigeria

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17556 The Nexus between Renewable Energy, Urbanization, Industrialization and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Authors: Zubda Zia, Zainab Masood

Abstract:

This study has investigated the relationship between renewable energy, urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth in Pakistan, through the years 1990-2016. All the three explanatory variables play a pivotal role in their contribution to growth in any economy, especially a developing one such as Pakistan. Auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) model has been used to determine the co-integration and relationship between the variables. The empirical results indicate that there exists a positive and significant relationship between all the three variables and economic growth and that there is a stable, long-run relationship among them. Policy suggestions that incorporate the results include having a larger share of renewable energy in the energy sector, using urbanization as a means to remove the big city trend and move towards, smaller sustainable cities, etc.

Keywords: economic growth, energy crisis, industrialization, renewable energy, SGDs, urbanization

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17555 Disability, Stigma and In-Group Identification: An Exploration across Different Disability Subgroups

Authors: Sharmila Rathee

Abstract:

Individuals with disability/ies often face negative attitudes, discrimination, exclusion, and inequality of treatment due to stigmatization and stigmatized treatment. While a significant number of studies in field of stigma suggest that group-identification has positive consequences for stigmatized individuals, ironically very miniscule empirical work in sight has attempted to investigate in-group identification as a coping measure against stigma, humiliation and related experiences among disability group. In view of death of empirical research on in-group identification among disability group, through present work, an attempt has been made to examine the experiences of stigma, humiliation, and in-group identification among disability group. Results of the study suggest that use of in-group identification as a coping strategy is not uniform across members of disability group and degree of in-group identification differs across different sub-groups of disability groups. Further, in-group identification among members of disability group depends on variables like degree and impact of disability, factors like onset of disability, nature, and visibility of disability, educational experiences and resources available to deal with disabling conditions.

Keywords: disability, stigma, in-group identification, social identity

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17554 Effect of Noise Reducing Headphones on the Short-Term Memory Recall of College Students

Authors: Gregory W. Smith, Paul J. Riccomini

Abstract:

The goal of this empirical inquiry is to explore the effect of noise reducing headphones on the short-term memory recall of college students. Immediately following the presentation (via PowerPoint) of 12 unrelated and randomly selected one- and two-syllable words, students were asked to recall as many words as possible. Using a linear model with conditions marked with binary indicators, we examined the frequency and accuracy of words that were recalled. The findings indicate that for some students, a reduction of noise has a significant positive impact on their ability to recall information. As classrooms become more aurally distracting due to the implementation of cooperative learning activities, these findings highlight the need for a quiet learning environment for some learners.

Keywords: auditory distraction, education, instruction, noise, working memory

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17553 Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Response: The Role of Uncertainty in the Case of Nigeria

Authors: Elias Udeaja, Elijah Udoh

Abstract:

Exploring an extended SVAR model (SVAR-X), we use the case of Nigeria to hypothesize for the role of uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries in the response of monetary policy to output and inflation. Deciphered the empirical finding is the potential of monetary policy exhibiting greater sensitive to shocks due to output growth than they do to shocks due to inflation in recession periods, while the reverse appears to be the case for a contractionary monetary policy. We also find the asymmetric preference in the response of monetary policy to changes in output and inflation as relatively more pronounced when we control for uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries.

Keywords: asymmetry response, developing economies, monetary policy shocks, uncertainty

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