Search results for: economic policy uncertainty

Authors: Amna Javed, Hisashi Masuda, Youji Kohda

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This study examines the value analysis in Islamic and conventional banking services in Pakistan. Many scholars have focused on co-creation of values in services but mainly economic values not non-economic. As Islamic banking is based on Islamic principles that are more concerned with non-economic values (well-being, partnership, fairness, trust worthy, and justice) than economic values as money in terms of interest. This study is important to know the providers point of view about the co-created values, because, it may be more sustainable and appropriate for today’s unpredictable socioeconomic environment. Data were collected from 4 banks (2 Islamic and 2 conventional banks). Text mining technique is applied for data analysis, and values with 100% occurrences in Islamic banking are chosen. The results reflect that Islamic banking is more centric towards non-economic values than economic values and it promotes team work and partnership concept by applying Islamic spirit and trust worthiness concept.

Keywords: economic values, Islamic banking, non-economic values, value system

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Authors: Peter Ferguson

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In 2018, Japan’s Ministry of Education revised the public elementary school curriculum. As part of widespread reforms, the recent Course of Study established English as an academic subject in Grades 5 and 6 plus lowered the starting age of 'foreign language activities' to Grade 3. These changes were implemented in April 2020. This presentation will examine the process and effects that policy implementation had on schools and teachers. A critical analysis of the 2018 Course of Study policy documents revealed several discourses were expressed concerning not only English education and foreign language acquisition, but that larger political and socioeconomic ideological beliefs on globalization, language, nation, culture, and identity were also articulated. Using excerpts from document analysis, the presenter will demonstrate how competing discourses were expressed in policy texts. Data from interviews with national policymakers also exposed several challenges policymakers faced as they tried to balance competing discourses and articulate important pedagogical concepts while having their voices heard. Findings show that some stakeholders were marginalized during the processes of policy creation, transmission, and implementation. This presentation is part of a larger multiple case study that utilized ethnography of language policy and critical analysis of discourse to examine how English education language policy was implemented into the national elementary school curriculum in Japan, and how stakeholders at the various educational levels contended with the creation, interpretation, and appropriation of the language policy.

Keywords: ethnography of language policy, elementary school EFL, language ideologies, discourse analysis

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Authors: Mehtab Alam

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Sustainable tourism practices require to improve the decreased performance levels in phases of change management for image branding. This paper addresses the innovative approach of using sustainable tourism for image branding as a contemporary tool of foreign policy. The sustainable tourism-based foreign policy promotes cultural values, green tourism, economy, and image management for the avoidance of rising global conflict. The mixed-method approach (quantitative 382 surveys, qualitative 11 interviews at saturation point) implied for the data analysis. The research finding provides the potential of using sustainable tourism by implying skills and knowledge, capacity, and personal factors of change management in improving tourism-based performance levels. It includes the valuable tourism performance role for the success of a foreign policy through sustainable tourism. Change management in tourism-based foreign policy provides the destination readiness for international engagement and curbing of climate issues through green tourism. The research recommends the impact of change management in improving the tourism-based performance levels of image branding for a coercive foreign policy. The paper’s future direction for the immediate implementation of tourism-based foreign policy is to overcome the contemporary issues of travel marketing management, green infrastructure, and cross-border regulation.

Keywords: decrease performance levels, change management, sustainable tourism, image branding, foreign policy

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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It is widely recognised that the assets portfolio development is helping to enhance economic growth, productivity and competitiveness. While numerous studies and reports certify the positive effect of investments in large infrastructure investments on the local economy, still, the methodology to estimate the contribution in economic development is a challenging issue for researchers and economists. The key question is how to estimate those economic impacts in each economic system. This paper provides a compact and applicable methodological framework providing quantitative results in terms of the overall jobs and income generated into the project life cycle. According to a deterministic mathematical approach, the key variables and the modelling framework are presented. The numerical case study highlights key results for a new motorway project in Greece, which is experienced economic stress for many years, providing the opportunity for comparisons with similar cases.

Keywords: quantitative modelling, economic impact, large transport infrastructure, economic assessment

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Authors: C. F. Popoola, P. Osho, S. B. Babarinde

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This study examined economic indicators as correlates of inward FDI. An exploratory research design was used to obtained annual published data on inflation rate, market size, exchange rate, political instability, human development, and infrastructure from Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, Nigerian Capital Market, Nigeria Institute of Social and Economic Research, and UNCTAD. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation, analysis of variance and regression. The findings of the study revealed that market size (r = 0.852, p < 0.001), infrastructure (r = 0.264, p < 0.001), human development (r = 0.154, p < 0.01) and exchange rate ( r= 0.178, p < 0.05) correlate positively with inward FDI, while inflation rate (r = -0.88, p < 0.001), and political instability (r= -0.102, p < 0.05) correlate negatively with inward FDI. Findings also revealed that the economic indicators significantly predicted inward FDI (R2 = 0.913; F(1,19) = 29.40; p < 0.05) for Nigeria. It was concluded that exchange rate, market size, human development, and infrastructure positively related to inward FDI while the high level of inflation and political instability negatively related to inward FDI. Therefore, it was suggested that policy makers and government agencies should readdress steps and design policies that would encourage more FDI into the country.

Keywords: exchange rate, foreign direct investment, human development, inflation rate, infrastructure, market size, political instability

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Authors: I. Khutsishvili, G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze

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This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: expert evaluations, investment decision making, OWA operator, possibility uncertainty

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Authors: Endang Jati Mat Sahid, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Ability to supply reliable and secure electricity has been one of the crucial components of economic development for any country. Forecasting of electricity production is therefore very important for accurate investment planning of generation power plants. In this study, we aim to examine and analyze the factors that affect electricity generation. Multiple regression models were used to find the relationship between various variables and electricity production. The models will simultaneously determine the effects of the variables on electricity generation. Many variables influencing electricity generation, i.e. natural gas (NG), coal (CO), fuel oil (FO), renewable energy (RE), gross domestic product (GDP) and fuel prices (FP), were examined for Malaysia. The results demonstrate that NG, CO, and FO were the main factors influencing electricity generation growth. This study then identified a number of policy implications resulting from the empirical results.

Keywords: energy policy, energy security, electricity production, Malaysia, the regression model

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Authors: Muhammad Siddique, Volodymyr Lugovskyy

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This paper explores how nations might mitigate the unfavorable impacts of oil price volatility on economic growth by switching to renewable energy sources. The impacts of uncertain factor prices on economic activity are examined by looking at the Realized Volatility (RV) of oil prices rather than the more traditional method of looking at oil price shocks. The United States of America (USA), China (C), India (I), United Kingdom (UK), Germany (G), Malaysia (M), and Pakistan (P) are all included to round out the traditional literature's examination of selected nations, which focuses on oil-importing and exporting economies. Granger Causality Tests (GCT), Impulse Response Functions (IRF), and Variance Decompositions (VD) demonstrate that in a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) scenario, the negative impacts of oil price volatility extend beyond what can be explained by oil price shocks alone for all of the nations in the sample. Different nations have different levels of vulnerability to changes in oil prices and other factors that may play a role in a sectoral composition and the energy mix. The conventional method, which only takes into account whether a country is a net oil importer or exporter, is inadequate. The potential economic advantages of initiatives to decouple the macroeconomy from volatile commodities markets are shown through simulations of volatility shocks in alternative energy mixes (with greater proportions of renewables). It is determined that in developing countries like Pakistan, increasing the use of renewable energy sources might lessen an economy's sensitivity to changes in oil prices; nonetheless, a country-specific study is required to identify particular policy actions. In sum, the research provides an innovative justification for mitigating economic growth's dependence on stable oil prices in our sample countries.

Keywords: oil price volatility, renewable energy, economic growth, developed and developing economies

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Authors: Abubakar Salisu Garba

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The objective of the paper is to highlight the nature of entrepreneurial activities in the Sub Sahara Africa. Five countries in the Sub Sahara African that are participating in Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) research have been studied to understand the types of entrepreneurial activities and their socio-economic implications in the region. The importance of entrepreneurial activities in boosting socio-economic development has been recognized not only in developing countries, but across the entire global economies. Some people believe that the wealth and poverty of developing countries is associated with nature and type of entrepreneurial activity. Policy makers are not only concern about the rate of business start up, but the growth and development of those starts up is of paramount importance to the development of the country’s economy. Although, the supply of entrepreneurs is essential, sometimes it does not really matters in boosting economic performance. What is more important is having high impact entrepreneurs who could make meaningful contribution to the economy. High growth oriented entrepreneurs are more stable and contribute greatly in enhancing the economic performance. When entrepreneurs are facing difficulties in sustaining and growing their businesses, it may be unlikely for entrepreneurship to reduce unemployment and poverty. Inadequate financial supports, insufficient infrastructure, lack of enforcing laws protecting the right of entrepreneurs are some of the problems making business environment difficult in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial activity, job creation, poverty reduction, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Mohammed Kamal Alhassan

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The closeness of Turkey to Greece has often been a cause of many disagreements between the people of the two countries. This is against the backdrop of the fact that they have many things in common. In the past, the two countries have had unhealthy relations, which threatened to cut diplomatic ties between them. The 1996 Imia/ Kardak incident and the Öcalan crisis, for instance, nearly resulted in war between them. There were events that also brought the two countries together, for instance, the 1999 earthquake. This was because many lives were lost during the disaster. It is important to note that these events were duly covered by the media in the two countries. First of all, the study intends to look at the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy in Turkey-Greece relations. It examines the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy with particular emphasis on agenda-setting and positioning theories of the media as the theoretical framework. Also, the study will discuss the media landscapes in Turkey and Greece, the ownership pattern of the media sector and the relationship between media organizations and the government in the two countries. Moreover, the core foreign policy objectives of the countries will be delved into. Finally, the study employs a qualitative method to critically analyze the role of the media in the formulation of foreign policy in Turkey-Greece relations. It uses the invitation of the Former Prime Minister of Greece, George Andreas Papandreou, to the Ambassadors Conference in Turkey as a case study. In the end, the analysis will prove that, indeed, the media in Greece was effective in the formulation of foreign policy in its relations with Turkey.

Keywords: media organizations, foreign policy, government, diplomacy

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Authors: Xiaohua Zou, Yongxin Su

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The reasonable operation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is of great significance in improving the security, stability, and economy of power system operation. However, the uncertainty of the operating environment, thermal comfort varies by users and rapid decision-making pose challenges for HVAC demand response optimization. In this regard, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning-based method for HVAC demand response optimization considering few-shot personalized thermal comfort (PTC). First, an HVAC DR optimization framework based on few-shot PTC model and DRL is designed, in which the output of few-shot PTC model is regarded as the input of DRL. Then, a few-shot PTC model that distinguishes between awake and asleep states is established, which has excellent engineering usability. Next, based on soft actor criticism, an HVAC DR optimization algorithm considering the user’s PTC is designed to deal with uncertainty and make decisions rapidly. Experiment results show that the proposed method can efficiently obtain use’s PTC temperature, reduce energy cost while ensuring user’s PTC, and achieve rapid decision-making under uncertainty.

Keywords: HVAC, few-shot personalized thermal comfort, deep reinforcement learning, demand response

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Authors: Kebron Abich Asnake

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The outbreak of COVID-19 has had far-reaching socio-economic consequences globally, and Ethiopia is no exception. This abstract provides a summary of a research study on the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study analyzes the health impact, economic repercussions, social consequences, government response measures, and opportunities for post-crisis recovery. In terms of health impact, the research explores the spread and transmission of the virus, the capacity and response of the healthcare system, and the mortality rate, with a focus on vulnerable populations. The economic impact analysis entails investigating the contraction of the GDP, employment and income loss, disruption in key sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing, and the specific implications for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), foreign direct investment, and remittances. The social impact section looks at the disruptions in education and the digital divide, food security and nutrition challenges, increased poverty and inequality, gender-based violence, and mental health issues. The research also examines the measures taken by the Ethiopian government, including health and safety regulations, economic stimulus packages, social protection programs, and support for vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the study outlines long-term recovery prospects, social cohesion, and community resilience challenges. It highlights the need to strengthen the healthcare system and finds a balance between health and economic priorities. The research concludes by presenting recommendations for policy-makers and stakeholders, emphasizing opportunities for post-crisis recovery such as diversification of the economy, enhanced healthcare infrastructure, investment in digital infrastructure and technology, and support for domestic tourism and local industries. This research provides valuable insights into the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in Ethiopia, offering a comprehensive analysis of the challenges faced and potential pathways towards recovery.

Keywords: impact, covid, ethiopia, health

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Alexander Gretchenko, Liudmila Goncharenko, Sergey Sybachin

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This article summarizes the history of the discovery of N.D. Kondratiev of large cycles of economic conditions, as well as the creation and justification of the theory of innovation-cyclical economic development of Kondratiev-Schumpeter. An analysis of it in modern conditions is providing. The main conclusion in this article is that in general terms today it can be argued that the Kondratiev-Schumpeter theory is sufficiently substantiated. Further, the possibility of making a forecast of the development of the economic situation in the direction of applying this theory in practice, which demonstrate its effectiveness, is considered.

Keywords: Kondratiev's big cycles of economic conjuncture, Schumpeter's theory of innovative economic development, long-term cyclical forecasting, dating of Kondratiev cycles

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Authors: Chaoren Lu

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Public policy is playing as one driving force that influencing service innovation implementation in public sector. However, public policy implications cannot be automatically derived from the analyses of innovation issues, and there lacks of researches about the influences of public policy onto innovation. Moreover, innovation in service system is hard to predictable and whether policy encourages or hidden innovation is still lack of study. Especially, by given the context that multiple actors are active involving within the service delivery process in public transport sector, the complex driving forces and challenges are emerged towards the service operation. This study is aim to analysis the service innovation practices within service operating organizations to understand the drivers and challenges of service operation based on policy requirements, and where the innovation idea generating from. The case studies of Changzhou Transit Group and Nanjing Jiangnan Public Transit Group will be launched. This paper reveals the ambidexterity between top-down and bottom-up demands within the public transport service operating organizations contribute to the innovation ideas. Meanwhile, it contributes to the understanding of fundamental elements of service innovation is the new relationship creation and new way of sharing knowledge. The policy contributes to the trigger of creation of such relationship. The research question is: what are the sources of service innovation practices in local public transport system in China in in facing the policy implementation?

Keywords: public value, service innovation, public transport service, China

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Authors: Waleed Baloch

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This paper investigates the problems and challenges in social-economic research in the case study of the province of Sindh after the COVID-19 pandemic; the pandemic has significantly impacted various aspects of society and the economy, necessitating a thorough examination of the resulting implications. The study also investigates potential strategies and solutions to mitigate these challenges, ensuring the continuation of robust social and economic research in the region. Through an in-depth analysis of data and interviews with key stakeholders, the study reveals several significant findings. Firstly, researchers encountered difficulties in accessing primary data due to disruptions caused by the pandemic, leading to limitations in the scope and accuracy of their studies. Secondly, the study highlights the challenges faced in conducting fieldwork, such as restrictions on travel and face-to-face interactions, which impacted the ability to gather reliable data. Lastly, the research identifies the need for innovative research methodologies and digital tools to adapt to the new research landscape brought about by the pandemic. The study concludes by proposing recommendations to address these challenges, including utilizing remote data collection methods, leveraging digital technologies for data analysis, and establishing collaborations among researchers to overcome resource constraints. By addressing these issues, researchers in the social economic field can effectively navigate the post-COVID-19 research landscape, facilitating a deeper understanding of the socioeconomic impacts and facilitating evidence-based policy interventions.

Keywords: social economic, sociology, developing economies, COVID-19

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Authors: Cecilia Velasco, Q.

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This study was undertaken to find out the perceived efficiency, appropriateness effectiveness, acceptability and relevance, if at all such exist, of the Mother Tongue Based Multilingual Education Policy under the K-12 Curriculum, as seen by the stakeholders who are directly affected by this policy. The researcher believed that it is right and fitting to get the views and opinions of the people directly involved and/or concerned about this education policy. The results of the study will hopefully guide lawmakers and/or policymakers to fine-tune educational policy or policies. The locale of the study was the DepEd schools in Laguna, (San Pablo City and other nearby cities). The subjects of the study were the teachers (first phase) from the public schools of Department of Education (San Pablo City), in particular and parents (second phase) from nearby cities who are the direct stakeholders of this Policy. To determine the perception of the teachers toward Mother Tongue Based Multilingual Education Policy; its acceptability, efficiency, appropriateness, effectiveness and relevance, factor analysis was used to refine the instrument (questionnaire). To find out the significant difference between the perceptions of the primary and intermediate group of teachers, including those who teach mother tongue and non-mother tongue subjects, t-test of difference between means was employed.

Keywords: DepEd, K12 curriculum, MTBMLE, stakeholders

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Authors: Ramon F. B. da Silva, Mateus Batistella, Emilio Moran

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Although the existence of two Forest Transition (FT) pathways, the economic development and the forest scarcity, there are many contexts that shape the model of FT observed in each particular region. This means that local conditions, such as relief, soil quality, historic land use/cover, public policies, the engagement of society in compliance with legal regulations, and the action of enforcement agencies, represent dimensions which combined, creates contexts that enable forest regeneration. From this perspective we can understand the regeneration process of native vegetation cover in the Paraíba Valley (Forest Atlantic biome), ongoing since the 1960s. This research analyzed public information, land use/cover maps, environmental public policies, and interviewed 17 stakeholders from the Federal and State agencies, municipal environmental and agricultural departments, civil society, farmers, aiming comprehend the contexts behind the forest regeneration in the Paraíba Valley, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The first policy to protect forest vegetation was the Forest Code n0 4771 of 1965, but this legislation did not promote the increase of forest, just the control of deforestation, not enough to the Atlantic Forest biome that reached its highest pick of degradation in 1985 (8% of Atlantic Forest remnants). We concluded that the Brazilian environmental legislation acted in a strategic way to promote the increase of forest cover (102% of regeneration between 1985 and 2011) from 1993 when the Federal Decree n0 750 declared the initial and advanced stages of secondary succession protected against any kind of exploitation or degradation ensuring the forest regeneration process. The strategic policy formulation was also observed in the Sao Paulo State law n0 6171 of 1988 that prohibited the use of fire to manage agricultural landscape, triggering a process of forest regeneration in formerly pasture areas.

Keywords: forest transition, land abandonment, law enforcement, rural economic crisis

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Authors: Aram Yakoby, Yossef H. Hatzor, Shmulik Pinkert

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This work presents an applied engineering method for evaluating the stability of underground openings under conditions of uncertainty. The developed method is demonstrated by a comprehensive parametric study on a case of large-diameter vertical borehole stability analysis, with uncertainties regarding the in-situ stress distribution. To this aim, a safety factor analysis is performed for the stability of both supported and unsupported boreholes. In the analysis, we used analytic geomechanical calculations and advanced numerical modeling to evaluate the estimated stress field. In addition, the work presents the development of a boundary condition for the numerical model that fits the nature of the problem and yields excellent accuracy. The borehole stability analysis is studied in terms of (1) the stress ratio in the vertical and horizontal directions, (2) the mechanical properties and geometry of the support system, and (3) the parametric sensitivity. The method's results are studied in light of a real case study of an underground waste disposal site. The conclusions of this study focus on the developed method for capturing the parametric uncertainty, the definition of critical geological depths, the criteria for implementing structural support, and the effectiveness of further in-situ investigations.

Keywords: borehole stability, in-situ stress, parametric study, factor of safety

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Authors: Atif Alenezi

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The low global oil price poses economic challenges for Saudi Arabia, as oil revenues still make up a great percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the end of 2014, the Consultative Assembly considered a report from the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy which highlights that the economy had not been successfully diversified. There thus exist ample reasons for modernising the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime, primarily to achieve and maintain prosperity and facilitate peace in the region. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying specific problems with the existing FDI regime in Saudi Arabia and subsequently some solutions to those problems. Saudi Arabia adopted its first specific legislation in 1956, which imposed significant restrictions on foreign ownership. Since then, Saudi Arabia has modernised its FDI framework with the passing of the Foreign Capital Investment Act 1979 and the Foreign Investment Law2000 and the accompanying Executive Rules 2000 and the recently adopted Implementing Regulations 2014.Nonetheless, the legislative provisions contain various gaps and the failure to address these gaps creates risks and uncertainty for investors. For instance, the important topic of mergers and acquisitions has not been addressed in the Foreign Investment Law 2000. The circumstances in which expropriation can be considered to be in the public interest have not been defined. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has not entered into many bilateral investment treaties (BITs). This has an effect on the investment climate, as foreign investors are not afforded typical rights. An analysis of the BITs which have been entered into reveals that the national treatment standard and stabilisation, umbrella or renegotiation provisions have not been included. This is problematic since the 2000 Act does not spell out the applicable standard in accordance with which foreign investors should be treated. Moreover, the most-favoured-nation (MFN) or fair and equitable treatment (FET) standards have not been put on a statutory footing. Whilst the Arbitration Act 2012 permits that investment disputes can be internationalised, restrictions have been retained. The effectiveness of international arbitration is further undermined because Saudi Arabia does not enforce non-domestic arbitral awards which contravene public policy. Furthermore, the reservation to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes allows Saudi Arabia to exclude petroleum and sovereign disputes. Interviews with foreign investors, who operate in Saudi Arabia highlight additional issues. Saudi Arabia ought not to procrastinate far-reaching structural reforms.

Keywords: FDI, Saudi, BITs, law

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Authors: Wang Qian, Bian Cheng Xiang

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In recent years, with the improvement of China's urbanization level, the number of urban motor vehicles has grown rapidly. As residents' daily commuting necessities, cars cause a lot of exhaust emissions and urban traffic congestion. In the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" of China, it is proposed to strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Urban transport accounts for a high proportion of carbon emission sources. It is an important driving force for the realization of China's carbon peak strategy. Some cities have introduced and implemented the policy of "car restriction" to solve related urban problems by reducing the use of cars. This paper analyzes the implementation of the "automobile restriction" policy, evaluates the relevant effects of the automobile restriction policy, and discusses how to better optimize the "automobile restriction" policy in the process of urban governance.

Keywords: carbon emission, traffic jams, vehicle restrictions, evaluate

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Authors: Prince Amartey

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Water is critical to public health, quality of life, environmental preservation, economic activity, and long-term growth. In this environment, it is critical to ensure the ongoing improvement of all processes and practices that contribute to the quality and safety of water. Water safety plans (WSPs) developed by water companies are an essential public policy instrument for achieving these objectives. This manuscript examines international evidence of water safety planning adoption and implementation and reports on the current situation in Portugal as part of the necessary adaptation of the national legal framework to the publication of the Directive on water quality for human consumption. The goal is to take lessons from various successful WSP projects throughout the world while writing new legislation in Ghana and elsewhere. According to the findings, four crucial aspects and key factors of success in establishing and implementing WSPs exist commitment from leadership, technical proficiency, administration, and cooperation among agencies.

Keywords: safe drinking, risk, policy, implementation

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Authors: Rogerio Vieira Dos Reis

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Countries like Brazil that despite fighting hard against corruption are not improving their corruption perception, especially due to systemic political corruption, should review their corruption prevention strategies. This thesis brings a case study based on an alternative way of preventing corruption: addressing the corruption drivers in public policies that lead to poor economic performance. After discussing the Brazilian industrial policies adopted recently, especially the measures towards the automotive sector, two corruption issues in this sector are analyzed: facilitating payment for fiscal benefits and buying the extension of fiscal benefits. In-depth interviews conducted with a policymaker and an executive of the automobile sector provide insights for identifying three main corruption drivers: excessive and unnecessary bureaucracy, a complex tax system and the existence of a closed market without setting performance requirements to be achieved by the benefited firms. Both the identification of the drivers of successful industrial policies and the proposal of anti-corruption strategies to ensure developmental outcomes are based on the economic perspective of industrial policy advocated by developmental authors and on the successful South Korean economic development experience. Structural anti-corruption measures include tax reform, the regulation of lobbying and legislation to allow corporate political contribution. Besides improving policymakers’ technical capabilities, measures at the ministry level include redesigning the automotive regimes as long-term policies focused on national investment with simple and clear rules and making fiscal benefits conditional upon performance targets focused on suppliers. This case study is of broader interest because it recommends the importance of adapting performance audits conducted by anti-corruption agencies, to focus not only on the delivery of public services, but also on the identification of potentially highly damaging corruption drivers in public policies that grant fiscal benefits to achieve developmental outcomes.

Keywords: Brazilian automotive sector, corruption, economic development, industrial policy, Inovar-Auto

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Authors: Vera Jancurova

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People are, in general, exposed to behavioral biases, however, the degree and impact are affected by experience, knowledge, and other characteristics. The purpose of this article is to study two of defined behavioral biases, the overconfidence and self-attribution bias, and its impact on economic and non-economic students at different stage of the study. The research method used for the purpose of this study is a controlled field study that contains questions on perception of own confidence and self-attribution and estimation of limits to analyse actual abilities. The results of the research show that economic students seem to be more overconfident than their non–economic colleagues, which seems to be caused by the fact the questionnaire was asking for predicting economic indexes and own knowledge and abilities in financial environment. Surprisingly, the most overconfidence was detected by the students at the beginning of their study (1st-semester students). However, the estimations of real numbers do not point out, that economic students have better results by the prediction itself. The study confirmed the presence of self-attribution bias at all of the respondents.

Keywords: behavioral finance, overconfidence, self-attribution, heuristics and biases

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Authors: Xu Wang

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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

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Authors: Esha Banerji

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This paper attempts an assessment of India's behaviour as a foreign policy actor amidst the COVID 19 pandemic by briefly surveying the various introductions and alterations made to India's foreign policy. First, the paper attempts to establish the key strategic pillars of Indian foreign policy after reviewing the existing works. It then proceeds to assess the prominent part played by Health Diplomacy ("Vaccine Maitri") in India's bilateral and multilateral relations during the pandemic and the role of the Indian diaspora in shaping India's foreign policy. This is followed by examining "India's Neighbourhood First policy" and the way it's been employed by the Indian government to extend India’s strategic influence during the pandemic. An empirical assessment will be done to examine the changing dynamics of India's relation with different regional groupings like SAARC, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, etc. The paper also explores the new alliances formed post-pandemic and India's role in them. This paper analyses the contemporary challenges that the largest nation in South Asia faces with the onset of a global pandemic and how Ancient Indian values like "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" have influenced India's foreign policy, especially during the pandemic. It also attempts to grasp the changes within the negotiation style of the Indian government, and the role played by various stakeholders in shaping India's position in the present geopolitical landscape. The study has been conducted using data collected from government records, External Affairs Ministry database, and other available literature. The paper concludes with an attempt to predict the far-reaching strategic implications that the policy, as mentioned above, may have for India.

Keywords: Indian foreign policy, COVID19, diplomacy, post pandemic world

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Authors: Mohammed Islam

Abstract:

Graduate employability is a well debated topic by governments, employers, and higher education institutes (HEI) across the world. Much of the focus of these debates have centred around the skills that graduates bring or should bring to the job market, a point echoed by United Arab Emirates (UAE) policy makers and employers. While some research has been carried out on graduates' employability skills, little or no attention has been paid to the forces at play in developing employability policy and its subsequent implementation. The focus of debate has been on a perceived skills gap rather than policy. Recognising a gap in the literature, this paper details a study of UAE employability policy development. Taking a social constructionist approach, this case study views policy as discursive and socially constructed through interactions with key stakeholders. It is within the myriad of interdependent socio-political factors and social practices, particularly power relationships, that this paper explores UAE policy on graduate employability. In doing so, this adds to the debate on graduate employability from the perspective of policy and explores its roots in the interaction between human activity and the ‘system’. Data was collected from two main sources: documentary review and semi-structured interviews. Policies and publicly stated rhetoric on graduate employability were analysed using Critical Discourse Analysis. Semi-structured interviews with representatives from policy makers, HEIs, and employers were reviewed through Thematic Analysis. The theoretical framework for the discussion of findings draws from social practice theories and highlights the factors at play in access to employment for UAE graduates. This case study presents a methodological approach to policy studies that can be applied beyond the context under investigation. Education policy researchers are provided with an opportunity to compare similarities and differences with their own specific contexts.

Keywords: critical discourse analysis, employability, methodology, policy, social constructionism

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

Abstract:

In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: external debt, economic growth, Turkish economy, time series analysis

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Authors: Md Monirul Islam, Shahaduz Zaman, Mosarraf H. Sarker

Abstract:

Context: Medical waste management (MWM) is a critical sector in Bangladesh due to its impact on human health and the environment. There is a need to assess the current policies and identify the role of policy actors in the policy formulation and implementation process. Research Aim: The study aimed to evaluate the role of policy actors in the medical waste management policy-making process in Bangladesh, identify policy gaps, and provide actionable recommendations for improvement. Methodology: The study adopted a qualitative research method and conducted key informant interviews. The data collected were analyzed using the thematic coding approach through Atlas.ti software. Findings: The study found that policies are formulated at higher administrative levels and implemented in a top-down approach. Higher-level institutions predominantly contribute to policy development, while lower-level institutions focus on implementation. However, due to negligence, ignorance, and lack of coordination, medical waste management receives insufficient attention from the actors. The study recommends the need for immediate strategies, a comprehensive action plan, regular policy updates, and inter-ministerial meetings to enhance medical waste management practices and interventions. Theoretical Importance: The research contributes to evaluating the role of policy actors in medical waste management policymaking and implementation in Bangladesh. It identifies policy gaps and provides actionable recommendations for improvement. Data Collection: The study used key informant interviews as the data collection method. Thirty-six participants were interviewed, including influential policymakers and representatives of various administrative spheres. Analysis Procedures: The data collected was analyzed using the inductive thematic analysis approach. Question Addressed: The study aimed to assess the role of policy actors in medical waste management policymaking and implementation in Bangladesh. Conclusion: In conclusion, the study provides insights into the current medical waste management policy in Bangladesh, the role of policy actors in policy formulation and implementation, and the need for improved strategies and policy updates. The findings of this study can guide future policy-making efforts to enhance medical waste management practices and interventions in Bangladesh.

Keywords: key informant, medical waste management, policy maker, qualitative study

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Authors: Taiwo Frances Gbadegesin

Abstract:

Children’s capacity to contribute to social and economic status of a nation has been given more recognition than ever. Global policy priority aimed at ensuring sustainable development has been extended to the developing nations of the world. However, many developing countries have continued to puzzle out the extent and possibilities of exploring sustainability within their socio-economic environment. This paper considers ways in which the theoretical framework of Dahlberg, Moss and Pence (1999; 2007) and Moss (2007; 2012) that embraces meaning-making, social construction of childhood experiences and democratic perspectives can be used to understand children’s capacity for building a sustainable future. This paper presents data collected through interviews and observations from ECCE teachers and children in Lagos, Nigeria. A distinct finding is that children’s participation in building sustainable future is a consequence of the knowledge of the workings of their social, economic and cultural nuances and not a matter of economic wealth per se. It further argues that sustainability is situated within a complex network of local and global contexts. It thus challenges the present neo-liberal approach and advocates a democratic approach to preparing children for a sustainable society. It concludes that sustainability cannot be built on what may be seen as decontextualized responses by relevant stakeholders to the needs and experiences of the “whole child”.

Keywords: children, ECCE, sustainable development, Nigeria

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