Search results for: SPICE modelling

Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Arnold M. Brener, Lesbek Tashimov, Ablakim S. Muratov

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The paper deals with the special model for coagulation kernels which represents new control parameters in the Smoluchowski equation for binary aggregation. On the base of the model the new approach to evaluating aggregative stability of disperse systems has been submitted. With the help of this approach the simple estimates for aggregative stability of various types of hydrophilic nano-suspensions have been obtained.

Keywords: aggregative stability, coagulation kernels, disperse systems, mathematical model

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Authors: Aimen Saleh

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The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

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Authors: Bashar Mahmoud, Lee Mortimer, Michael Fairweather

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New methods have recently been introduced to improve the thermal property values of molten nitrate salts (a binary mixture of NaNO3:KNO3in 60:40 wt. %), by doping them with minute concentration of nanoparticles in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 wt. % to form the so-called: Nano-heat-transfer-fluid, apt for thermal energy transfer and storage applications. The present study aims to assess the stability of these nanofluids using the advanced computational modelling technique, Lagrangian particle tracking. A multi-phase solid-liquid model is used, where the motion of embedded nanoparticles in the suspended fluid is treated by an Euler-Lagrange hybrid scheme with fixed time stepping. This technique enables measurements of various multi-scale forces whose characteristic (length and timescales) are quite different. Two systems are considered, both consisting of 50 nm Al2O3 ceramic nanoparticles suspended in fluids of different density ratios. This includes both water (5 to 95 °C) and molten nitrate salt (220 to 500 °C) at various volume fractions ranging between 1% to 5%. Dynamic properties of both phases are coupled to the ambient temperature of the fluid suspension. The three-dimensional computational region consists of a 1μm cube and particles are homogeneously distributed across the domain. Periodic boundary conditions are enforced. The particle equations of motion are integrated using the fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm with a very small time-step, Δts, set at 10-11 s. The implemented technique demonstrates the key dynamics of aggregated nanoparticles and this involves: Brownian motion, soft-sphere particle-particle collisions, and Derjaguin, Landau, Vervey, and Overbeek (DLVO) forces. These mechanisms are responsible for the predictive model of aggregation of nano-suspensions. An energy transport-based method of predicting the thermal conductivity of the nanofluids is also used to determine thermal properties of the suspension. The simulation results confirms the effectiveness of the technique. The values are in excellent agreement with the theoretical and experimental data obtained from similar studies. The predictions indicates the role of Brownian motion and DLVO force (represented by both the repulsive electric double layer and an attractive Van der Waals) and its influence in the level of nanoparticles agglomeration. As to the nano-aggregates formed that was found to play a key role in governing the thermal behavior of nanofluids at various particle concentration. The presentation will include a quantitative assessment of these forces and mechanisms, which would lead to conclusions about nanofluids, heat transfer performance and thermal characteristics and its potential application in solar thermal energy plants.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, molten salt, nano-fluids, multi-scale computational modelling

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

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Authors: Leon Mishnaevsky Jr., Gaoming Dai

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3D numerical simulations of fatigue damage of multiscale fiber reinforced polymer composites with secondary nanoclay reinforcement are carried out. Macro-micro FE models of the multiscale composites are generated automatically using Python based software. The effect of the nanoclay reinforcement (localized in the fiber/matrix interface (fiber sizing) and distributed throughout the matrix) on the crack path, damage mechanisms and fatigue behavior is investigated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: computational mechanics, fatigue, nanocomposites, composites

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Authors: Majid Aldalbahi

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In 2009, over 3.4 billion people in the world resided in urban areas as a result of rapid urban growth. This figure is estimated to increase to 6.5 billion by 2050. This urban growth phenomenon has raised challenges for many countries in both the developing and developed worlds. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatiotemporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. The socio-economic components of urban growth are related to urban population growth and economic growth, while physical components of urban growth and economic growth are related to spatial expansion, land cover change and land use change which are the focus of this research. The interactions between these components are complex and no-linear. Several factors and forces cause these complex interactions including transportation and communication, internal and international migrations, public policies, high natural growth rates of urban populations and public policies. Urban growth has positive and negative consequences. The positive effects relates to planned and orderly urban growth, while negative effects relate to unplanned and scattered growth, which is called sprawl. Although urban growth is considered as necessary for sustainable urbanization, uncontrolled and rapid growth cause various problems including consumption of precious rural land resources at urban fringe, landscape alteration, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and neighborhood conflicts. Traditional urban planning approaches in fast growing cities cannot accommodate the negative consequences of rapid urban growth. Microsimulation programme, and modelling techniques are effective means to provide new urban development, management and planning methods and approaches. This paper aims to use these techniques to understand and analyse the complex interactions for the case study of Riyadh city, a fast growing city in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: policy implications, urban planning, traffic congestion, urban growth, Suadi Arabia, Riyadh

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Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

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Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

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Authors: Manal M. Shehata, Kawther M. Abdel-Hamid, Nashwa A. Mohamed, Marwa H. Bakr, Maged S. Mahmoud, Hala M. Elbadre

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Introduction: The worldwide rapid increase in diabetes poses a significant challenge to current therapeutic approaches. Therapeutic utility of bone marrow transplantation in diabetes is an attractive approach. However, the oxidative stress generated by hyperglycemia may hinder β-cell regeneration. Curcumin, is a dietary spice with antioxidant activity. Aim of work: The present study was undertaken to investigate the therapeutic potential of curcumin, bone marrow transplantation, and their combined effects in the reversal of experimental diabetes. Material and Methods: Fifty adult male healthy albino rats were included in the present study.They were divided into two groups: Group І: (control group) included 10 rats. Group П: (diabetic group): included 40 rats. Diabetes was induced by single intraperitoneal injection of streptozotocin (STZ). Group II will be further subdivided into four groups (10 rats for each): Group II-a (diabetic control). Group II-b: rats were received single intraperitoneal injection of bone marrow suspension (un-fractionated bone marrow cells) prepared from rats of the same family. Group II-c: rats were treated with curcumin orally by gastric intubation for 6 weeks. Group II-d: rats were received a combination of single bone marrow transplantation and curcumin for 6 weeks. After 6 weeks, blood glucose, insulin levels were measured and the pancreas from all rats were processed for Histological, Immunohistochemical and morphometric examination. Results: Diabetic group, showed progressive histological changes in the pancreatic islets. Treatment with either curcumin or bone marrow transplantation improved the structure of the islets and reversed streptozotocin-induced hyperglycemia and hypoinsulinemia. Combination of curcumin and bone marrow transplantation elicited more profound alleviation of streptozotocin-induced changes including islet regeneration and insulin secretion. Conclusion: The use of natural antioxidants combined with bone marrow transplantation to induce pancreatic regeneration is a promising strategy in the management of diabetes.

Keywords: diabtes, panceatic islets, bone marrow transplantation, curcumin

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Authors: Hanife Merve Öztürk, Sıdıka Dalgan

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In this project, a capacity analysis study is done at TAT A. Ş. Maret Plant. Production capacity of products which generate 80% of sales amount are determined. Obtained data entered the LEKIN Scheduling Program and we get production schedules by using heuristic methods. Besides heuristic methods, as mathematical model, disjunctive programming formulation is adapted to flexible job shop problems by adding a new constraint to find optimal schedule solution.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop problem, shifting bottleneck heuristic, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Nicholas Pearce, Eun-jin Kim

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Pathologies of the cardiovascular (CV) system remain a serious and deadly health problem for human society. Computational modelling provides a relatively accessible tool for diagnosis, treatment, and research into CV disorders. However, numerical models of the CV system have largely focused on the function of the ventricles, frequently overlooking the behaviour of the atria. Furthermore, in the study of the pressure-volume relationship of the heart, which is a key diagnosis of cardiac vascular pathologies, previous works often evoke popular yet questionable time-varying elastance (TVE) method that imposes the pressure-volume relationship instead of calculating it consistently. Despite the convenience of the TVE method, there have been various indications of its limitations and the need for checking its validity in different scenarios. A model of the combined left ventricle (LV) and left atrium (LA) is presented, which consistently considers various feedback mechanisms in the heart without having to use the TVE method. Specifically, a synergistic model of the left ventricle is extended and modified to include the function of the LA. The synergy of the original model is preserved by modelling the electro-mechanical and chemical functions of the micro-scale myofiber for the LA and integrating it with the microscale and macro-organ-scale heart dynamics of the left ventricle and CV circulation. The atrioventricular node function is included and forms the conduction pathway for electrical signals between the atria and ventricle. The model reproduces the essential features of LA behaviour, such as the two-phase pressure-volume relationship and the classic figure of eight pressure-volume loops. Using this model, disorders in the internal cardiac electrical signalling are investigated by recreating the mechano-electric feedback (MEF), which is impossible where the time-varying elastance method is used. The effects of AV node block and slow conduction are then investigated in the presence of an atrial arrhythmia. It is found that electrical disorders and arrhythmia in the LA degrade the CV system by reducing the cardiac output, power, and heart rate.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, left atrium, numerical model, MEF

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Ravi Verma

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Cryosorption pump is the best solution to achieve clean, vibration free ultra-high vacuum. Furthermore, the operation of cryosorption pump is free from the influence of electric and magnetic fields. Due to these attributes, this pump is used in the space simulation chamber to create the ultra-high vacuum. The cryosorption pump comprises of three parts (a) panel which is cooled with the help of cryogen or cryocooler, (b) an adsorbent which is used to adsorb the gas molecules, (c) an epoxy which holds the adsorbent and the panel together thereby aiding in heat transfer from adsorbent to the panel. The performance of cryosorption pump depends on the temperature of the adsorbent and hence, on the thermal conductivity of the epoxy. Therefore we have made an attempt to increase the thermal conductivity of epoxy adhesive by mixing nano-sized graphene filler particles. The thermal conductivity of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive is measured with the help of indigenously developed experimental setup in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K, which is generally the operating temperature range of cryosorption pump for efficiently pumping of hydrogen and helium gas. In this article, we have presented the experimental results of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. We have also proposed an analytical heat conduction model to find the thermal conductivity of the composite. In this case, the filler particles, such as graphene, are randomly distributed in a base matrix of epoxy. The developed model considers the complete spatial random distribution of filler particles and this distribution is explained by Binomial distribution. The results obtained by the model have been compared with the experimental results as well as with the other established models. The developed model is able to predict the thermal conductivity in both isotropic regions as well as in anisotropic region over the required temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. Due to the non-empirical nature of the proposed model, it will be useful for the prediction of other properties of composite materials involving the filler in a base matrix. The present studies will aid in the understanding of low temperature heat transfer which in turn will be useful towards the development of high performance cryosorption pump.

Keywords: composite adhesive, computational modelling, cryosorption pump, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Cosmas Pandit Pagwiwoko, Ammar Khaled Abdelaziz Abdelsamia

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Flutter as a phenomenon of flow-induced and self-excited vibration has to be recognized considering its harmful effect on the structure especially in a stage of aircraft design. This phenomenon is also important for a wind energy harvester based on the fluttering surface due to its effective operational velocity range. This multi-physics occurrence can be presented by two governing equations in both fluid and structure simultaneously in respecting certain boundary conditions on the surface of the body. In this work, the equations are resolved separately by two distinct solvers, one-time step of each domain. The modelling and simulation of this flow-structure interaction in ANSYS show the effectiveness of this loosely coupled method in representing flutter phenomenon however the process is time-consuming for design purposes. Therefore, another technique using the same weak coupled aero-structure is proposed by using system dynamics approach. In this technique, the aerodynamic forces were calculated using singularity function for a range of frequencies and certain natural mode shapes are transformed into time domain by employing an approximation model of fraction rational function in Laplace variable. The representation of structure in a multi-degree-of-freedom coupled with a transfer function of aerodynamic forces can then be simulated in time domain on a block-diagram platform such as Simulink MATLAB. The dynamic response of flutter at certain velocity can be evaluated with another established flutter calculation in frequency domain k-method. In this method, a parameter of artificial structural damping is inserted in the equation of motion to assure the energy balance of flow and vibrating structure. The simulation in time domain is particularly interested as it enables to apply the structural non-linear factors accurately. Experimental tests on a fluttering airfoil in the wind tunnel are also conducted to validate the method.

Keywords: flutter, flow-induced vibration, flow-structure interaction, non-linear structure

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

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Authors: Mansur Hamma-Adama, Tahar Kouider

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Construction Industry has been evolving since the development of Building Information Modelling (BIM). This technological process is unstoppable; it is out to the market with remarkable case studies of solving the long industry’s history of fragmentation. This industry has been changing over time; United States has recorded the most significant development in construction digitalization, Australia, United Kingdom and some other developed nations are also amongst promoters of BIM process and its development. Recently, a developing country like China and Malaysia are keying into the industry’s digital shift, while very little move is seen in South Africa whose development is considered higher and perhaps leader in the digital transition amongst the African countries. To authors’ best knowledge, Nigerian construction industry has never engaged in BIM discussions hence has no attention at national level. Consequently, Nigeria has no “Noteworthy BIM publications.” Decision makers and key stakeholders need to be informed on the current trend of the industry’s development (BIM in specific) and the opportunities of adopting this digitalization trend in relation to the identified challenges. BIM concept can be traced mostly in Architectural practices than engineering practices in Nigeria. A superficial BIM practice is found to be at organisational level only and operating a model based - “BIM stage 1.” Research to adopting this innovation has received very little attention. This piece of work is literature review based, aimed at exploring BIM in Nigeria and its prospects. The exploration reveals limitations in the literature availability as to extensive research in the development of BIM in the country. Numerous challenges were noticed including building collapse, inefficiencies, cost overrun and late project delivery. BIM has potentials to overcome the above challenges and even beyond. Low level of BIM adoption with reasonable level of awareness is noticed. However, lack of policy and guideline as well as serious lack of experts in the field are amongst the major barriers to BIM adoption. The industry needs to embrace BIM to possibly compete with its global counterpart.

Keywords: adoption, BIM, CAD, construction industry, Nigeria, opportunities

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Authors: Said Echchakoui

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This paper aims to investigate how experiential value added by the salesperson mediates the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Structural equation modelling was employed to assess the proposed research model empirically. The empirical results revealed that the three dimensions of experiential value economic benefit, service productivity and enjoyable interaction, mediated the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Managerial implications are addressed.

Keywords: sales force, experiential added value, customer perceived value, performance

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Authors: Haffaf Hafid

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Hypergraphs, after being used to model the structural organization of System of Sytems (SoS) at macroscopic level, has recent trends towards generalizing this powerful representation at different stages of complex system modelling. In this paper, we first describe different applications of hypergraph theory, and step by step, introduce multilevel modeling of SoS by means of integrating Constraint Programming Langages (CSP) dealing with engineering system reconfiguration strategy. As an application, we give an A.C.T Terminal controlled by a set of Intelligent Automated Vehicle.

Keywords: hypergraph model, structural analysis, bipartite graph, monitoring, system of systems, reconfiguration analysis, hypernetwork

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Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

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This paper presents an incremental formal development of the Wireless Transaction Protocol (WTP) in Event-B. WTP is part of the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) architectures and provides a reliable request-response service. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps. As result, verification of WTP allows us to find some deficiencies in the current specification.

Keywords: event-B, wireless transaction protocol, proof obligation, refinement, Rodin, ProB

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Beyza Sukran Isik, Gokce Altin, Ipek Yalcinkaya, Evren Demircan, Asli Can Karaca, Beraat Ozcelik

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Turmeric (Curcuma longa L.), is used as a food additive (spice), preservative and coloring agent in Asian countries, including China and South East Asia. It is also considered as a medicinal plant. Traditional Indian medicine evaluates turmeric powder for the treatment of biliary disorders, rheumatism, and sinusitis. It has rich polyphenol content. Turmeric has yellow color mainly because of the presence of three major pigments; curcumin 1,7-bis(4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-1, 6-heptadiene-3,5-dione), demethoxy-curcumin and bis demothoxy-curcumin. These curcuminoids are recognized to have high antioxidant activities. Curcumin is the major constituent of Curcuma species. Method: To prepare turmeric tea, 0.5 gram of turmeric powder was brewed with 250 ml of water at 90°C, 10 minutes. 500 grams of fresh turmeric washed and shelled prior to squeezing. Both turmeric tea and turmeric juice pass through 45 lm filters and stored at -20°C in the dark for further analyses. Curcumin was extracted from 20 grams of turmeric powder by 70 ml ethanol solution (95:5 ethanol/water v/v) in a water bath at 80°C, 6 hours. Extraction was contributed for 2 hours at the end of 6 hours by addition of 30 ml ethanol. Ethanol was removed by rotary evaporator. Remained extract stored at -20°C in the dark. Total phenolic content and phenolic profile were determined by spectrophotometric analysis and ultra-fast liquid chromatography (UFLC), respectively. Results: The total phenolic content of ethanolic extract of turmeric, turmeric juice, and turmeric tea were determined 50.72, 31.76 and 29.68 ppt, respectively. The ethanolic extract of turmeric, turmeric juice, and turmeric tea have been injected into UFLC and analyzed for curcumin contents. The curcumin content in ethanolic extract of turmeric, turmeric juice, and turmeric tea were 4067.4, 156.7 ppm and 1.1 ppm, respectively. Significance: Turmeric is known as a good source of curcumin. According to the results, it can be stated that its tea is not sufficient way for curcumin consumption. Turmeric juice can be preferred to turmeric tea for higher curcumin content. Ethanolic extract of turmeric showed the highest content of turmeric in both spectrophotometric and chromatographic analyses. Nonpolar solvents and carriers which have polar binding sites have to be considered for curcumin consumption due to its nonpolar nature.

Keywords: phenolic compounds, spectrophotometry, turmeric, UFLC

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Authors: Alexandra K. Diem, Giles Richardson, Roxana O. Carare, Neil W. Bressloff

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and although it has been researched for over 100 years, there is still no cure or preventive medication. Its onset and progression is closely related to the accumulation of the neuronal metabolite Aβ. This raises the question of how metabolites and waste products are eliminated from the brain as the brain does not have a traditional lymphatic system. In recent years the rapid uptake of Aβ into cerebral artery walls and its clearance along those arteries towards the lymph nodes in the neck has been suggested and confirmed in mice studies, which has led to the hypothesis that interstitial fluid (ISF), in the basement membranes in the walls of cerebral arteries, provides the pathways for the lymphatic drainage of Aβ. This mechanism, however, requires a net reverse flow of ISF inside the blood vessel wall compared to the blood flow and the driving forces for such a mechanism remain unknown. While possible driving mechanisms have been studied using mathematical models in the past, a mechanism for net reverse flow has not been discovered yet. Here, we aim to address the question of the driving force of this reverse lymphatic drainage of Aβ (also called perivascular drainage) by using multi-scale numerical and analytical modelling. The numerical simulation software COMSOL Multiphysics 4.4 is used to develop a fluid-structure interaction model of a cerebral artery, which models blood flow and displacements in the artery wall due to blood pressure changes. An analytical model of a layer of basement membrane inside the wall governs the flow of ISF and, therefore, solute drainage based on the pressure changes and wall displacements obtained from the cerebral artery model. The findings suggest that an active role in facilitating a reverse flow is played by the components of the basement membrane and that stiffening of the artery wall during age is a major risk factor for the impairment of brain lymphatics. Additionally, our model supports the hypothesis of a close association between cerebrovascular diseases and the failure of perivascular drainage.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, artery wall mechanics, cerebral blood flow, cerebral lymphatics

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Authors: Fiffy Hanisdah Saikim, Bruce Prideaux

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One of the aims of wildlife tourism is to educate visitors about the threats facing wildlife, in general, and the actions needed to protect the environment and maintain biodiversity. Annually, millions of tourists visit natural areas and zoos primarily to view flagship species such as rhinos and elephants. Venues rely on the inherent charisma of these species to increase visitation and anchor conservation efforts. Expected visitor outcomes from the use of flagships include raised levels of awareness and pro-conservation behaviors. However, the role of flagships in wildlife tourism has been criticized for not delivering conservation benefits for species of interest or biodiversity and producing negative site impacts. Furthermore, little is known about how the connection to a species influences conservation behaviors. This paper addresses this gap in knowledge by extending previous work exploring wildlife tourism to include the emotional connection formed with wildlife species and pro-conservation behaviors for individual species and biodiversity. This paper represents a substantial contribution to the field because (a) it incorporates the role of the experience in understanding how tourists connect with a species and how this connection influences pro-conservation behaviors; and (b) is the first attempt to operationalize Conservation Caring as a measure of tourists’ connection with a species. Existing studies have investigated how specific elements, such as interpretation or species’ morphology may influence programmatic goals or awareness. However, awareness is a poor measure of an emotional connection with an animal. Furthermore, there has not been work done to address the holistic nature of the wildlife viewing experience, and its subsequent influence on behaviors. Results based on the structural equation modelling, support the validity of Conservation Caring as a factor; the ability of wildlife tourism to influence Conservation Caring; and that this connection is a strong predictor of conservation awareness behaviors. These findings suggest wildlife tourism can deliver conservation outcomes. The studies in this paper also provide a valuable framework for structuring wildlife tourism experiences to align with flagship related conservation outcomes, and exploring a wider assemblage of species as potential flagships.

Keywords: wildlife tourism, conservation caring, conservation awareness, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Hillary Mwongyera

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The Semliki basin has become a frontier for petroleum exploration in recent years. Exploration efforts have resulted into extensive seismic data acquisition and drilling of three wells namely; Turaco 1, Turaco 2 and Turaco 3. A petrophysical analysis of the Turaco 1 well was carried out to identify two reservoir zones on which AVO modeling was performed. A combination of seismic modeling and rock physics modeling was applied during reservoir characterization and monitoring to determine variations of seismic responses with amplitude characteristics. AVO intercept gradient analysis applied on AVO synthetic CDP gathers classified AVO anomalies associated with both reservoir zones as Class 1 AVO anomalies. Fluid replacement modeling was carried out on both reservoir zones using homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation patterns to determine effects of fluid substitution on rock property interactions. For both homogeneous mixing and saturation patterns, density (ρ) showed an increasing trend with increasing brine substitution while Shear wave velocity (Vs) decreased with increasing brine substitution. A study of compressional wave velocity (Vp) with increasing brine substitution for both homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation gave quite interesting results. During patchy saturation, Vp increased with increasing brine substitution. During homogeneous mixing however, Vp showed a slightly decreasing trend with increasing brine substitution but increased tremendously towards and at full brine saturation. A sensitivity analysis carried out showed that density was a very sensitive rock property responding to brine saturation except at full brine saturation during homogeneous mixing where Vp showed greater sensitivity with brine saturation. Rock physics modeling was performed to predict diagnostics of reservoir quality using an inverse deterministic approach which showed low shale content and a high degree of shale stiffness within reservoir zones.

Keywords: Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO), fluid replacement modelling, reservoir characterization, AVO attributes, rock physics modelling, reservoir monitoring

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Authors: Dinuka Herath, Shelley Harrington

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This paper prompts debate about whether disorganization can be positioned as a mechanism that facilitates the creation and enactment of important dynamic capabilities within an organization. This particular article is a conceptual exploration of the link between dynamic capabilities and disorganization and presents the case for agent-based modelling as a viable methodological tool which can be used to explore this link. Dynamic capabilities are those capabilities that an organization needs to sustain competitive advantage in complex environments. Disorganization is the process of breaking down restrictive organizational structures and routines that commonly reside in organizations in order to increase organizational performance. In the 20th century, disorganization was largely viewed as an undesirable phenomenon within an organization. However, the concept of disorganization has been revitalized and garnered research interest in the recent years due to studies which demonstrate some of the advantages of disorganization to an organization. Furthermore, recent Agent-based simulation studies have shown the capability of disorganization to be managed and argue for disorganization to be viewed as an enabler of organizational productivity. Given the natural state of disorganization and resulting fear this can create, this paper argues that instead of trying to ‘correct’ disorganization, it should be actively encouraged to have functional purpose. The study of dynamic capabilities emerged as a result of heightened dynamism and consequentially the very nature of dynamism denotes a level of fluidity and flexibility, something which this paper argues many organizations do not truly foster due to a constrained commitment to organization and order. We argue in this paper that the very state of disorganization is a state that should be encouraged to develop dynamic capabilities needed to not only deal with the complexities of the modern business environment but also to sustain competitive success. The significance of this paper stems from the fact that both dynamic capabilities and disorganization are two concepts that are gaining prominence in their respective academic genres. Despite the attention each concept has received individually, no conceptual link has been established to depict how they actually interact with each other. We argue that the link between these two concepts present a novel way of looking at organizational performance. By doing so, we explore the potential of these two concepts working in tandem in order to increase organizational productivity which has significant implications for both academics and practitioners alike.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, disorganization, dynamic capabilities, performance

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Authors: Benmoussa Dennai, H. Benslimane, A. Helmaoui

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Photo voltaic conversion is the direct conversion of electromagnetic energy into electrical energy continuously. This electromagnetic energy is the most solar radiation. In this work we performed a computer modelling using AMPS 1D optimization of hetero-junction solar cells GaInP/GaAs configuration for p/ n. We studied the influence of the thickness the base layer in the cell offers on the open circuit voltage, the short circuit current and efficiency.

Keywords: optimization, photovoltaic cell, GaInP / GaAs AMPS-1D, hetetro-junction

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Authors: Francesca Fermi, Paola Astegiano, Angelo Martino, Stephanie Heitel, Michael Krail

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In order to achieve the targeted emission reductions for the decarbonisation of the European economy by 2050, fundamental contributions are required from both energy and transport sectors. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of a largescale diffusion of e-vehicles, either battery-based or fuel cells, together with the implementation of transport policies aiming at decreasing the use of motorised private modes in order to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, in the context of a future high share of renewable energy. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios on transport sector is performed with the ASTRA (ASsessment of TRAnsport Strategies) model. ASTRA is a strategic system-dynamic model at European scale (EU28 countries, Switzerland and Norway), consisting of different sub-modules related to specific aspects: the transport system (e.g. passenger trips, tonnes moved), the vehicle fleet (composition and evolution of technologies), the demographic system, the economic system, the environmental system (energy consumption, emissions). A key feature of ASTRA is that the modules are linked together: changes in one system are transmitted to other systems and can feed-back to the original source of variation. Thanks to its multidimensional structure, ASTRA is capable to simulate a wide range of impacts stemming from the application of transport policy measures: the model addresses direct impacts as well as second-level and third-level impacts. The simulation of the different scenarios is performed within the REFLEX project, where the ASTRA model is employed in combination with several energy models in a comprehensive Modelling System. From the transport sector perspective, some of the impacts are driven by the trend of electricity price estimated from the energy modelling system. Nevertheless, the major drivers to a low carbon transport sector are policies related to increased fuel efficiency of conventional drivetrain technologies, improvement of demand management (e.g. increase of public transport and car sharing services/usage) and diffusion of environmentally friendly vehicles (e.g. electric vehicles). The final modelling results of the REFLEX project will be available from October 2018. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios is performed in terms of transport, environmental and social indicators. The diffusion of e-vehicles produces a consistent reduction of future greenhouse gas emissions, although the decarbonisation target can be achieved only with the contribution of complementary transport policies on demand management and supporting the deployment of low-emission alternative energy for non-road transport modes. The paper explores the implications through time of transport policy measures on mobility and environment, underlying to what extent they can contribute to a decarbonisation of the transport sector. Acknowledgements: The results refer to the REFLEX project which has received grants from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 691685.

Keywords: decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions, e-mobility, transport policies, energy

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Authors: Y. Kavanagh, N. O'Hara, R. Palmer, P. Lowe, D. Rafferty

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Physical Physics is a physics education methodology for games programfmes that integrates physical activity with movement tracking and modelling. It significantly enhances the learning experience and it is effective in illustrating how physics is core in games design and programming, while allowing students to be active participants and take ownership of the learning process. It has been successfully piloted with undergraduate students studying Games Development.

Keywords: activity, enhanced learning, game development, physics

Procedia PDF Downloads 266