Search results for: stock market prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5953

Search results for: stock market prediction

943 Fuzzy Expert Approach for Risk Mitigation on Functional Urban Areas Affected by Anthropogenic Ground Movements

Authors: Agnieszka A. Malinowska, R. Hejmanowski

Abstract:

A number of European cities are strongly affected by ground movements caused by anthropogenic activities or post-anthropogenic metamorphosis. Those are mainly water pumping, current mining operation, the collapse of post-mining underground voids or mining-induced earthquakes. These activities lead to large and small-scale ground displacements and a ground ruptures. The ground movements occurring in urban areas could considerably affect stability and safety of structures and infrastructures. The complexity of the ground deformation phenomenon in relation to the structures and infrastructures vulnerability leads to considerable constraints in assessing the threat of those objects. However, the increase of access to the free software and satellite data could pave the way for developing new methods and strategies for environmental risk mitigation and management. Open source geographical information systems (OS GIS), may support data integration, management, and risk analysis. Lately, developed methods based on fuzzy logic and experts methods for buildings and infrastructure damage risk assessment could be integrated into OS GIS. Those methods were verified base on back analysis proving their accuracy. Moreover, those methods could be supported by ground displacement observation. Based on freely available data from European Space Agency and free software, ground deformation could be estimated. The main innovation presented in the paper is the application of open source software (OS GIS) for integration developed models and assessment of the threat of urban areas. Those approaches will be reinforced by analysis of ground movement based on free satellite data. Those data would support the verification of ground movement prediction models. Moreover, satellite data will enable our mapping of ground deformation in urbanized areas. Developed models and methods have been implemented in one of the urban areas hazarded by underground mining activity. Vulnerability maps supported by satellite ground movement observation would mitigate the hazards of land displacements in urban areas close to mines.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, open source geographic information science (OS GIS), risk assessment on urbanized areas, satellite interferometry (InSAR)

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942 New Model of Immersive Experiential Branding for International Universities

Authors: Kakhaber Djakeli

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For market leadership, iconic brands already start to establish their unique digital avatars into Metaverse and offer Non Fungible Tokens to their fans. Metaverse can be defined as an evolutionary step of Internet development. So if companies and brands use the internet, logically, they can find new solutions for them and their customers in Metaverse. Marketing and Management today must learn how to combine physical world activities with those either entitled as digital, virtual, and immersive. A “Phygital” Solution uniting physical and digital competitive activities of the company covering the questions about how to use virtual worlds for Brand Development and Non Fungible Tokens for more attractiveness soon will be most relevant question for Branding. Thinking comprehensively, we can entitle this type of branding as an Immersive one. As we see, the Immersive Brands give customers more mesmerizing feelings than traditional ones. Accordingly, the Branding can be divided by the company in its own understanding into two models: traditional and immersive. Immersive Branding being more directed to Sensorial challenges of Humans will be big job for International Universities in near future because they target the Generation - Z. To try to help those International Universities opening the door to the mesmerizing, immersive branding, the Marketing Research have been undertaken. The main goal of the study was to establish the model for Immersive Branding at International Universities and answer on many questions what logically arises in university life. The type of Delphi Surveys entitled as an Expert Studies was undertaken for one great mission, to help International Universities to open the opportunities to Phygital activities with reliable knowledge with Model of Immersive Branding. The Questionnaire sent to Experts of Education were covering professional type of questions from education to segmentation of customers, branding, attitude to students, and knowledge to Immersive Marketing. The research results being very interesting and encouraging enough to make author to establish the New Model of Immersive Experiential Branding for International Universities.

Keywords: branding, immersive marketing, students, university

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941 The Impact of Access to Finances on Survival of Small and Medium Enterprises: The South African Perspective in an Covid-19 Era

Authors: Thabiso Sthembiso Msomi

Abstract:

SMEs are the main engine of growth in most developing economies. One of the main factors that hinder the development of SME is access to finance. In this study, we explored the factors that hinder the growth and survival of SMEs in South Africa. The capital structure theory formed the theoretical underpinning for the study. The quantitative research design was adopted and data was collected from retail, construction, manufacturing and agriculture sectors of SMEs within the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The modified version of the Cochran formula was used to determine the sample size as 321 SMEs and analysed using the five-point Likert scale. The purposive sampling technique was used to select owners of SME. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the data analysis through Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) to determine the factor structures of items employed to measure each of the constructs in this study. Then, the Cronbach’s alpha test was conducted to determine the reliability of each construct. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) was used to determine the adequacy of the sample size. Linear regression was done to determine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The findings suggest that the main constraints facing South African SMEs were the lack of experienced management. Furthermore, the SMEs would fail to raise customer awareness of their products and services, which in turn affects their market access and monthly turnover. The study recommends that SMEs keep up-to-date records of business transactions to enable the business to keep track of its operations. The study recommends that South African banks adopt an SME accounting and bookkeeping program. The finding of this study benefits policymakers in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: small businesses, access to finances, COVID-19, SMEs survival

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940 A Critical Review on Temperature Affecting the Morpho-Physiological, Hormonal and Genetic Control of Branching in Chrysanthemum

Authors: S. Ahmad, C. Yuan, Q. Zhang

Abstract:

The assorted architectural plasticity of a plant is majorly specified by stooling, a phenomenon tackled by a combination of developmental, environmental and hormonal accelerators of lateral buds. Chrysanthemums (Chrysanthemum morifolium) are one of the most economically important ornamental plants worldwide on the account of having plentiful architectural patterns, diverse shapes and attractive colors. Side branching is the major determinant guaranteeing the consistent demand of cut chrysanthemum in flower industry. Presence of immense number of axillary branches devalues the economic importance of this imperative plant and is a major challenge for mum growers to hold a stake in the cut flower market. Restricting branches to a minimum level, or no branches at all, is the dire need of the day in order to introducing novelty in cut chrysanthemums. Temperature is a potent factor which affects largely the escalation, development of chrysanthemum, and also the genetic expression of various vegetative traits like branching. It affects differently the developmental characteristics and phenotypic expressions of inherent qualities, thereby playing a significant role in differentiating the developmental responses in different cultivars of chrysanthemum. A detailed study pertaining to the affect of temperature on branching in chrysanthemum is a clear lacking throughout the literature on mums. Therefore, searching with temperature as an effective means of reducing side branching to a desired level could be an influencing extension of struggles about how to nullify stooling. This requires plenty of research in order to reveal the extended penetration of temperature in manipulating the genetic control of various important traits like branching, which is a burning issue now a days in producing cut flowers in chrysanthemum. The present review will highlight the impact of temperature on branching control mechanism in chrysanthemum at morpho-physiological, hormonal and molecular levels.

Keywords: branching, chrysanthemum, genetic control, hormonal, morpho-physiological, temperature

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939 Preliminary WRF SFIRE Simulations over Croatia during the Split Wildfire in July 2017

Authors: Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Višnjica Vučetić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Barbara Malečić

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The Split wildfire on the mid-Adriatic Coast in July 2017 is one of the most severe wildfires in Croatian history, given the size and unexpected fire behavior, and it is used in this research as a case study to run the Weather Research and Forecasting Spread Fire (WRF SFIRE) model. This coupled fire-atmosphere model was successfully run for the first time ever for one Croatian wildfire case. Verification of coupled simulations was possible by using the detailed reconstruction of the Split wildfire. Specifically, precise information on ignition time and location, together with mapped fire progressions and spotting within the first 30 hours of the wildfire, was used for both – to initialize simulations and to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate fire’s propagation and final fire scar. The preliminary simulations were obtained using high-resolution vegetation and topography data for the fire area, additionally interpolated to fire grid spacing at 33.3 m. The results demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the ability to work with real data from Croatia and produce adequate results for forecasting fire spread. As the model in its setup has the ability to include and exclude the energy fluxes between the fire and the atmosphere, this was used to investigate possible fire-atmosphere interactions during the Split wildfire. Finally, successfully coupled simulations provided the first numerical evidence that a wildfire from the Adriatic coast region can modify the dynamical structure of the surrounding atmosphere, which agrees with observations from fire grounds. This study has demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the potential for operational application in Croatia with more accurate fire predictions in the future, which could be accomplished by inserting the higher-resolution input data into the model without interpolation. Possible uses for fire management in Croatia include prediction of fire spread and intensity that may vary under changing weather conditions, available fuels and topography, planning effective and safe deployment of ground and aerial firefighting forces, preventing wildland-urban interface fires, effective planning of evacuation routes etc. In addition, the WRF SFIRE model results from this research demonstrated that the model is important for fire weather research and education purposes in order to better understand this hazardous phenomenon that occurs in Croatia.

Keywords: meteorology, agrometeorology, fire weather, wildfires, couple fire-atmosphere model

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938 Artificial Neural Networks Application on Nusselt Number and Pressure Drop Prediction in Triangular Corrugated Plate Heat Exchanger

Authors: Hany Elsaid Fawaz Abdallah

Abstract:

This study presents a new artificial neural network(ANN) model to predict the Nusselt Number and pressure drop for the turbulent flow in a triangular corrugated plate heat exchanger for forced air and turbulent water flow. An experimental investigation was performed to create a new dataset for the Nusselt Number and pressure drop values in the following range of dimensionless parameters: The plate corrugation angles (from 0° to 60°), the Reynolds number (from 10000 to 40000), pitch to height ratio (from 1 to 4), and Prandtl number (from 0.7 to 200). Based on the ANN performance graph, the three-layer structure with {12-8-6} hidden neurons has been chosen. The training procedure includes back-propagation with the biases and weight adjustment, the evaluation of the loss function for the training and validation dataset and feed-forward propagation of the input parameters. The linear function was used at the output layer as the activation function, while for the hidden layers, the rectified linear unit activation function was utilized. In order to accelerate the ANN training, the loss function minimization may be achieved by the adaptive moment estimation algorithm (ADAM). The ‘‘MinMax’’ normalization approach was utilized to avoid the increase in the training time due to drastic differences in the loss function gradients with respect to the values of weights. Since the test dataset is not being used for the ANN training, a cross-validation technique is applied to the ANN network using the new data. Such procedure was repeated until loss function convergence was achieved or for 4000 epochs with a batch size of 200 points. The program code was written in Python 3.0 using open-source ANN libraries such as Scikit learn, TensorFlow and Keras libraries. The mean average percent error values of 9.4% for the Nusselt number and 8.2% for pressure drop for the ANN model have been achieved. Therefore, higher accuracy compared to the generalized correlations was achieved. The performance validation of the obtained model was based on a comparison of predicted data with the experimental results yielding excellent accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, corrugated channel, heat transfer enhancement, Nusselt number, pressure drop, generalized correlations

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937 Companies’ Internationalization: Multi-Criteria-Based Prioritization Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Jorge Anibal Restrepo Morales, Sonia Martín Gómez

Abstract:

A model based on a logical framework was developed to quantify SMEs' internationalization capacity. To do so, linguistic variables, such as human talent, infrastructure, innovation strategies, FTAs, marketing strategies, finance, etc. were integrated. It is argued that a company’s management of international markets depends on internal factors, especially capabilities and resources available. This study considers internal factors as the biggest business challenge because they force companies to develop an adequate set of capabilities. At this stage, importance and strategic relevance have to be defined in order to build competitive advantages. A fuzzy inference system is proposed to model the resources, skills, and capabilities that determine the success of internationalization. Data: 157 linguistic variables were used. These variables were defined by international trade entrepreneurs, experts, consultants, and researchers. Using expert judgment, the variables were condensed into18 factors that explain SMEs’ export capacity. The proposed model is applied by means of a case study of the textile and clothing cluster in Medellin, Colombia. In the model implementation, a general index of 28.2 was obtained for internationalization capabilities. The result confirms that the sector’s current capabilities and resources are not sufficient for a successful integration into the international market. The model specifies the factors and variables, which need to be worked on in order to improve export capability. In the case of textile companies, the lack of a continuous recording of information stands out. Likewise, there are very few studies directed towards developing long-term plans, and., there is little consistency in exports criteria. This method emerges as an innovative management tool linked to internal organizational spheres and their different abilities.

Keywords: business strategy, exports, internationalization, fuzzy set methods

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936 An Investigation into the Decision-Making Process of Choosing Long-Term Care Services in Taiwan

Authors: Yu-Ching Liu

Abstract:

Background: Family numbers usually take responsibility for taking care of their elderly relatives, especially parents. Caring for a patient with chronic diseases is a stressful experience, which makes carers suffer physical and mental health stress, difficulties maintaining family relationships and issues in participating in the labor market, which may lower their quality of life (QoL). The issue of providing care to relatives with chronic illness has been widely explored in Taiwan, but most studies focus on the need for full-time caregivers. Objective: The main goal of this study was to examine the topic of working carers involved in the decision-making process of LTC services and to explore what affects working carers considering when they choose the care services for their disabled, elderly relatives. Method: A total of 7 working caregivers were enrolled in this study. A face-to-face and semi-structured in-depth qualitative interview study were conducted to explore the caregivers' perspectives. Results: Working carers have a positive experience of using LTC service because it allows them to kill two birds with one stone, continue employment, and care for an elderly disabled relative. However, working carers have still been struggling to find friendly community-based LTC services. There were no longer available community services that could be used with the illness condition of patients getting worse. As such, patients have to be cared for at home, which might increase the caregiver burden of carers. Conclusion: Working family caregivers suffer from heavy physical and psychological burdens as they not only have to maintain their employment but care for elderly disabled relatives; however, the current support provided is insufficient. The design of services should consider working carers' employment situation and need rather than the only caring situation of patients at home.

Keywords: family caregiver, Long-term care, work-life balance, decision-making

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935 Quality Tools for Shaping Quality of Learning and Teaching in Education and Training

Authors: Renga Rao Krishnamoorthy, Raihan Tahir

Abstract:

The quality of classroom learning and teaching delivery has been and will continue to be debated at various levels worldwide. The regional cooperation programme to improve the quality and labour market orientation of the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (RECOTVET), ‘Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit’ (GIZ), in line with the sustainable development goals (SDG), has taken the initiative in the development of quality TVET in the ASEAN region by developing the Quality Toolbox for Better TVET Delivery (Quality Toolbox). This initiative aims to provide quick and practical materials to trainers, instructors, and personnel involved in education and training at an institute to shape the quality of classroom learning and teaching. The Quality Toolbox for Better TVET Delivery was developed in three stages: literature review and development, validation, and finalization. Thematic areas in the Quality Toolbox were derived from collective input of concerns and challenges raised from experts’ workshops through moderated sessions involving representatives of TVET institutes from 9 ASEAN Member States (AMS). The sessions were facilitated by professional moderators and international experts. TVET practitioners representing AMS further analysed and discussed the structure of the Quality Toolbox and content of thematic areas and outlined a set of specific requirements and recommendations. The application exercise of the Quality Toolbox was carried out by TVET institutes among ASM. Experience sharing sessions from participating ASEAN countries were conducted virtually. The findings revealed that TVET institutes use two types of approaches in shaping the quality of learning and teaching, which is ascribed to inductive or deductive, shaping of quality in learning and teaching is a non-linear process and finally, Q-tools can be adopted and adapted to shape the quality of learning and teaching at TVET institutes in the following: improvement of the institutional quality, improvement of teaching quality and improvement on the organisation of learning and teaching for students and trainers. The Quality Toolbox has good potential to be used at education and training institutes to shape quality in learning and teaching.

Keywords: AMS, GIZ, RECOTVET, quality tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
934 Systems Strengthening for Sustainable Family Planning Service Provision in Uganda

Authors: D. Muyama, M. Luyiga, P. Buyungo, D. Chemonges, M. Namukwaya, L. Ssekabembe, B. Lukwago, D. Kyamagwa

Abstract:

Context: The study focuses on the sustainability of health interventions in Uganda, particularly in the private sector, beyond donor-funded project periods. The Population Services International (PSI) implemented the Women Health Project (WHP) to ensure continued access to quality family planning, cervical cancer screening, and post-abortion care services through private clinics. Research Aim: The aim of the study is to assess the continued access to quality family planning, cervical cancer screening, and post-abortion care services through the private sector after the closure or reduction in funding of the WHP. Methodology: PSI trained and mentored 83 clinics to establish functional systems in self-regulatory quality improvement, supply chain, referral, and demand creation. The clinics were also connected to the national reporting system and utilized Ministry of Health reporting tools. An assessment tool with six criteria was designed and used to evaluate the progress of the clinics. Clinics scoring 75% and above were considered independent and graduated from the program. Findings: Out of the 83 private clinics, 56 successfully met the graduation criteria and graduated from the program, while 25 lost interest and were gradually dropped. Two clinics failed to achieve the criteria due to leadership challenges. The 59 graduating clinics continued to provide high-quality family planning services, including IUD, implant, Depo-Provera, oral contraceptives, and post-abortion care. All graduating clinics were reassessed and found to still be capable of offering services, attributing their success to government stock availability and acquired skills through mentorships. The clinics expressed appreciation to PSI for the sustainable plan that allowed them to operate beyond the project period. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the understanding of sustainability planning and the importance of clinic owners' attitudes and buy-in for continued service provision. It emphasizes the implementation of sustainability plans through existing structures to leverage available resources and ensure continuity of care. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The study collected data through the assessment tool that evaluated the progress of clinics based on the established criteria. The tool was scored out of 100%, and clinics scoring above 75% were deemed independent. The findings were analyzed quantitatively to determine the success rate of clinics in meeting the graduation criteria. Questions Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether private clinics in Uganda can sustain the provision of family planning, cervical cancer screening, and post-abortion care services after the closure or reduction in funding of the WHP. Conclusion: The study concludes that the attitude and buy-in of clinic owners are essential for sustainability planning. Implementing sustainability plans through existing structures and leveraging available resources are crucial for the continuity of care after the end of a project or reduced funding. The findings highlight the importance of establishing sustainable plans to ensure continued access to essential health services beyond the project period. Contributions: This study contributes to the existing knowledge for programmers implementing or intending to implement donor-funded projects. It provides insights into designing sustainable plans that enable the independent operation of clinics even after the end of a project.

Keywords: graduation, family planning, systems strengthening, sustainability

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933 Identification of Ideal Plain Sufu (Fermented Soybean Curds) Based on Ideal Profile Method and Assessment of the Consistency of Ideal Profiles Obtained from Consumers

Authors: Yan Ping Chen, Hau Yin Chung

Abstract:

The Ideal Profile Method (IPM) is a newly developed descriptive sensory analysis conducted by consumers without previous training. To perform this test, both the perceived and the ideal intensities from the judgements of consumers on products’ attributes, as well as their hedonic ratings were collected for formulating an ideal product (the most liked one). In addition, Ideal Profile Analysis (IPA) was conducted to check the consistency of the ideal data at both the panel and consumer levels. In this test, 12 commercial plain sufus bought from Hong Kong local market were tested by 113 consumers according to the IPM, and rated on 22 attributes. Principal component analysis was used to profile the perceived and the ideal spaces of tested products. The consistency of ideal data was then checked by IPA. The result showed that most consumers shared a common ideal. It was observed that the sensory product space and the ideal product space were structurally similar. Their first dimensions all opposed products with intense fermented related aroma to products with less fermented related aroma. And the predicted ideal profile (the estimated liking score around 7.0 in a 9.0-point scale) got higher hedonic score than the tested products (the average liking score around 6.0 in a 9.0-point scale). For the majority of consumers (95.2%), the stated ideal product considered as a potential ideal through checking the R2 coefficient value. Among all the tested products, sample-6 was the most popular one with consumer liking percentage around 30%. This product with less fermented and moldy flavour but easier to melt in mouth texture possessed close sensory profile according to the ideal product. This experiment validated that data from untrained consumers could be guided as useful information. Appreciated sensory characteristics could be served as reference in the optimization of the commercial plain sufu.

Keywords: ideal profile method, product development, sensory evaluation, sufu (fermented soybean curd)

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932 Construction Innovation: Support for 3D Printing House

Authors: Andrea Palazzo, Daniel Macek, Veronika Malinova

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Contour processing is the new technology challenge for architects and construction companies. The many advantages it promises make it one of the most interesting solutions for construction in terms of automation of building processes. The technology for 3D printing houses offers many application possibilities, from low-cost construction, to being considered by NASA for visionary projects as a good solution for building settlements on other planets. Another very important point is that clients, as architects, will no longer have many limits in design concerning ideas and creativity. The prices for real estate are constantly increasing and the lack of availability of construction materials as well as the speculation that has been created around it in 2021 is bringing prices to such a level that in the future real estate developers risk not being able to find customers for these ultra-expensive homes. Hence, this paper starts with the introduction of 3D printing, which now has the potential to gain an important position in the market, becoming a valid alternative to the classic construction process. This technology is not only beneficial from an economic point of view but it is also a great opportunity to have an impact on the environment by reducing CO2 emissions. Further on in the article we will also understand if, after the COP 26 (2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference), world governments could also push towards building technologies that reduce the waste materials that are needed to be disposed of and at the same time reduce emissions with the contribution of governmental funds. This paper will give us insight on the multiple benefits of 3D printing and emphasise the importance of finding new solutions for materials that can be used by the printer. Therefore, based on the type of material, it will be possible to understand the compatibility with current regulations and how the authorities will be inclined to support this technology. This will help to enable the rise and development of this technology in Europe and in the rest of the world on actual housing projects and not only on prototypes.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, contour crafting, development, new regulation, printing material

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931 Laboratory Investigations on the Utilization of Recycled Construction Aggregates in Asphalt Mixtures

Authors: Farzaneh Tahmoorian, Bijan Samali, John Yeaman

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Road networks are increasingly expanding all over the world. The construction and maintenance of the road pavements require large amounts of aggregates. Considerable usage of various natural aggregates for constructing roads as well as the increasing rate at which solid waste is generated have attracted the attention of many researchers in the pavement industry to investigate the feasibility of the application of some of the waste materials as alternative materials in pavement construction. Among various waste materials, construction and demolition wastes, including Recycled Construction Aggregate (RCA) constitute a major part of the municipal solid wastes in Australia. Creating opportunities for the application of RCA in civil and geotechnical engineering applications is an efficient way to increase the market value of RCA. However, in spite of such promising potentials, insufficient and inconclusive data and information on the engineering properties of RCA had limited the reliability and design specifications of RCA to date. In light of this, this paper, as a first step of a comprehensive research, aims to investigate the feasibility of the application of RCA obtained from construction and demolition wastes for the replacement of part of coarse aggregates in asphalt mixture. As the suitability of aggregates for using in asphalt mixtures is determined based on the aggregate characteristics, including physical and mechanical properties of the aggregates, an experimental program is set up to evaluate the physical and mechanical properties of RCA. This laboratory investigation included the measurement of compressive strength and workability of RCA, particle shape, water absorption, flakiness index, crushing value, deleterious materials and weak particles, wet/dry strength variation, and particle density. In addition, the comparison of RCA properties with virgin aggregates has been included as part of this investigation and this paper presents the results of these investigations on RCA, basalt, and the mix of RCA/basalt.

Keywords: asphalt, basalt, pavement, recycled aggregate

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930 Adoption of Risk and Insurance among Aquaculture Producers in Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Kiyanoush Ghalavand

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Aquaculture production is inherently a risky business, and farmers face a variety of weather, pest, disease, inptut supply, and market related risks. There are many factors out farmers control and unpredictable. Insurance has an important role in aquaculture production and is a tool to support farmers against threats. Investigation of factors affecting aquaculture farmers' adoption of aquaculture insurance strategy was the objective of this study. The purpose of this study was determining the related factors to adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province, Iran. The research design was a descriptive and correlation surveying method. Aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province were the target population for this study. A random sample of aquaculture selected (N=1830, n =139). The main result of the study reveled that exist correlation between the level of education, knowledge about purpose of insurance, participation in extension course, visit with insurance organization, and contact with extension agents to the adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers were significantly positive. By using Bartlett's test and KMO test, determine whether research variables are appropriate for factor analysis (Sig = 0.000, Bartlett test = 0.9724, KMO = 0.74). The number of factors was determined using a split plot, eigenvalue, and percent of variance. An examination of the items and their factors loadings was used to understand the nature of the nine factors. To reduce subjectivity, items with factor loading equal to or greater than 0.5 were considered most important when factors were labeled. The nine factors were labeled (1) Extension and education activities, (2) Economical characteristics, (3) Governmental support, (4) communicational channel, (5) local leaders, (6) Facilitate in given damage (7) Motivation establishing, (8) Given damage in appropriate methods and (9) Appropriate activities by insurance organization. The results obtained from the factors analysis reveal that the nine factors explain percentage75 of the variation of the adoption of insurance of the adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province.

Keywords: aquaculture farmers, insurance, factorial analysis, Khuzestan province, risks

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929 Virtual Screening and in Silico Toxicity Property Prediction of Compounds against Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lipoate Protein Ligase B (LipB)

Authors: Junie B. Billones, Maria Constancia O. Carrillo, Voltaire G. Organo, Stephani Joy Y. Macalino, Inno A. Emnacen, Jamie Bernadette A. Sy

Abstract:

The drug discovery and development process is generally known to be a very lengthy and labor-intensive process. Therefore, in order to be able to deliver prompt and effective responses to cure certain diseases, there is an urgent need to reduce the time and resources needed to design, develop, and optimize potential drugs. Computer-aided drug design (CADD) is able to alleviate this issue by applying computational power in order to streamline the whole drug discovery process, starting from target identification to lead optimization. This drug design approach can be predominantly applied to diseases that cause major public health concerns, such as tuberculosis. Hitherto, there has been no concrete cure for this disease, especially with the continuing emergence of drug resistant strains. In this study, CADD is employed for tuberculosis by first identifying a key enzyme in the mycobacterium’s metabolic pathway that would make a good drug target. One such potential target is the lipoate protein ligase B enzyme (LipB), which is a key enzyme in the M. tuberculosis metabolic pathway involved in the biosynthesis of the lipoic acid cofactor. Its expression is considerably up-regulated in patients with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and it has no known back-up mechanism that can take over its function when inhibited, making it an extremely attractive target. Using cutting-edge computational methods, compounds from AnalytiCon Discovery Natural Derivatives database were screened and docked against the LipB enzyme in order to rank them based on their binding affinities. Compounds which have better binding affinities than LipB’s known inhibitor, decanoic acid, were subjected to in silico toxicity evaluation using the ADMET and TOPKAT protocols. Out of the 31,692 compounds in the database, 112 of these showed better binding energies than decanoic acid. Furthermore, 12 out of the 112 compounds showed highly promising ADMET and TOPKAT properties. Future studies involving in vitro or in vivo bioassays may be done to further confirm the therapeutic efficacy of these 12 compounds, which eventually may then lead to a novel class of anti-tuberculosis drugs.

Keywords: pharmacophore, molecular docking, lipoate protein ligase B (LipB), ADMET, TOPKAT

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928 Estimation of Service Quality and Its Impact on Market Share Using Business Analytics

Authors: Haritha Saranga

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Service quality has become an important driver of competition in manufacturing industries of late, as many products are being sold in conjunction with service offerings. With increase in computational power and data capture capabilities, it has become possible to analyze and estimate various aspects of service quality at the granular level and determine their impact on business performance. In the current study context, dealer level, model-wise warranty data from one of the top two-wheeler manufacturers in India is used to estimate service quality of individual dealers and its impact on warranty related costs and sales performance. We collected primary data on warranty costs, number of complaints, monthly sales, type of quality upgrades, etc. from the two-wheeler automaker. In addition, we gathered secondary data on various regions in India, such as petrol and diesel prices, geographic and climatic conditions of various regions where the dealers are located, to control for customer usage patterns. We analyze this primary and secondary data with the help of a variety of analytics tools such as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA and ARIMAX. Study results, after controlling for a variety of factors, such as size, age, region of the dealership, and customer usage pattern, show that service quality does influence sales of the products in a significant manner. A more nuanced analysis reveals the dynamics between product quality and service quality, and how their interaction affects sales performance in the Indian two-wheeler industry context. We also provide various managerial insights using descriptive analytics and build a model that can provide sales projections using a variety of forecasting techniques.

Keywords: service quality, product quality, automobile industry, business analytics, auto-regressive integrated moving average

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927 Studies on the Existing Status of MSW Management in Agartala City and Recommendation for Improvement

Authors: Subhro Sarkar, Umesh Mishra

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Agartala Municipal Council (AMC) is the municipal body which regulates and governs the Agartala city. MSW management may be proclaimed as a tool which rests on the principles of public health, economy, engineering and other aesthetic or environmental factors by dealing with the controlled generation, collection, transport, processing and disposal of MSW. Around 220-250 MT of solid waste per day is collected by AMC out of which 12-14 MT is plastic and is disposed of in Devendra Chandra Nagar dumping ground (33 acres), nearly 12-15 km from the city. A survey was performed to list down the prevailing operations conducted by the AMC which includes road sweeping, garbage lifting, carcass removal, biomedical waste collection, dumping, and incineration. Different types of vehicles are engaged to carry out these operations. Door to door collection of garbage is done from the houses with the help of 220 tricycles issued by 53 NGOs. The location of the dustbin containers were earmarked which consisted of 4.5 cum, 0.6 cum containers and 0.1 cum containers, placed at various locations within the city. The total household waste was categorized as organic, recyclable and other wastes. It was found that East Pratapgarh ward produced 99.3% organic waste out of the total MSW generated in that ward which is maximum among all the wards. A comparison of the waste generation versus the family size has been made. A questionnaire for the survey of MSW from household and market place was prepared. The average waste generated (in kg) per person per day was found out for each of the wards. It has been noted that East Jogendranagar ward had a maximum per person per day waste generation of 0.493 kg/day.In view of the studies made, it has been found that AMC has failed to implement MSWM in an effective way because of the unavailability of suitable facilities for treatment and disposal of the large amount of MSW. It has also been noted that AMC is not following the standard procedures of handling MSW. Transportation system has also been found less effective leading to waste of time, money and manpower.

Keywords: MSW, waste generation, solid waste disposal, management

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926 Sedimentary, Diagenesis and Evaluation of High Quality Reservoir of Coarse Clastic Rocks in Nearshore Deep Waters in the Dongying Sag; Bohai Bay Basin

Authors: Kouassi Louis Kra

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The nearshore deep-water gravity flow deposits in the Northern steep slope of Dongying depression, Bohai Bay basin, have been acknowledged as important reservoirs in the rift lacustrine basin. These deep strata term as coarse clastic sediment, deposit at the root of the slope have complex depositional processes and involve wide diagenetic events which made high-quality reservoir prediction to be complex. Based on the integrated study of seismic interpretation, sedimentary analysis, petrography, cores samples, wireline logging data, 3D seismic and lithological data, the reservoir formation mechanism deciphered. The Geoframe software was used to analyze 3-D seismic data to interpret the stratigraphy and build a sequence stratigraphic framework. Thin section identification, point counts were performed to assess the reservoir characteristics. The software PetroMod 1D of Schlumberger was utilized for the simulation of burial history. CL and SEM analysis were performed to reveal diagenesis sequences. Backscattered electron (BSE) images were recorded for definition of the textural relationships between diagenetic phases. The result showed that the nearshore steep slope deposits mainly consist of conglomerate, gravel sandstone, pebbly sandstone and fine sandstone interbedded with mudstone. The reservoir is characterized by low-porosity and ultra-low permeability. The diagenesis reactions include compaction, precipitation of calcite, dolomite, kaolinite, quartz cement and dissolution of feldspars and rock fragment. The main types of reservoir space are primary intergranular pores, residual intergranular pores, intergranular dissolved pores, intergranular dissolved pores, and fractures. There are three obvious anomalous high-porosity zones in the reservoir. Overpressure and early hydrocarbon filling are the main reason for abnormal secondary pores development. Sedimentary facies control the formation of high-quality reservoir, oil and gas filling preserves secondary pores from late carbonate cementation.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, Dongying Sag, deep strata, formation mechanism, high-quality reservoir

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
925 Marketing Strategy of Agricultural Products in Remote Districts: A Case Study of Mudan Township, Taiwan

Authors: Ying-Hsiang Ho, Hsiao-Tseng Lin

Abstract:

Mudan Township is a remote mountainous area in Taiwan. In recent years, due to the migration of the population, inconvenient transportation, digital divide, and low production, agricultural products marketing have become a major issue. This research aims to develop the marketing strategy suitable for the agricultural products of the rural areas. The main objective of this work is to conduct in-depth interviews with scholars and experts in the marketing field, combined with the marketing 4P combination, to analyze and summarize the possible marketing strategies for agricultural products for remote districts. The interviews consist of seven experts from industry who have practical experience in producing, marketing, and selling agricultural products and three professors that have experience in teaching marketing management. The in-depth interviews are conducted for about an hour using a pre-drafted interview outline. The results of the interviews are summarized by semantic analysis and presented in a marketing 4P combination. The results indicate that in terms of products, high-quality products with original characteristics can be added through the implementation of production history, organic certification, and cultural packaging. In the place part, we found that the use of emerging communities, the emphasis on cross-industry alliances, the improvement of information application capabilities of rural households, production and marketing group, and contractual farming system are the development priorities. In terms of promotion, it should be an emphasis on the management of internet social media and word-of-mouth marketing. Mudan Township may consider promoting agricultural products through special festivals such as farmer's market, wild ginger flower season and hot spring season. This research also proposes relevant recommendations for the government's public sector and related industry reference for the promotion of agricultural products for remote area.

Keywords: marketing strategy, remote districts, agricultural products, in-depth interviews

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924 Transforming Health Information from Manual to Digital (Electronic) World: A Reference and Guide

Authors: S. Karthikeyan, Naveen Bindra

Abstract:

Introduction: To update ourselves and understand the concept of latest electronic formats available for Health care providers and how it could be used and developed as per standards. The idea is to correlate between the patients Manual Medical Records keeping and maintaining patients Electronic Information in a Health care setup in this world. Furthermore this stands with adapting to the right technology depending upon the organization and improve our quality and quantity of Healthcare providing skills. Objective: The concept and theory is to explain the terms of Electronic Medical Record (EMR), Electronic Health Record (EHR) and Personal Health Record (PHR) and selecting the best technical among the available Electronic sources and software before implementing. It is to guide and make sure the technology used by the end users without any doubts and difficulties. The idea is to evaluate is to admire the uses and barriers of EMR-EHR-PHR. Aim and Scope: The target is to achieve the health care providers like Physicians, Nurses, Therapists, Medical Bill reimbursements, Insurances and Government to assess the patient’s information on easy and systematic manner without diluting the confidentiality of patient’s information. Method: Health Information Technology can be implemented with the help of Organisations providing with legal guidelines and help to stand by the health care provider. The main objective is to select the correct embedded and affordable database management software and generating large-scale data. The parallel need is to know how the latest software available in the market. Conclusion: The question lies here is implementing the Electronic information system with healthcare providers and organisation. The clinicians are the main users of the technology and manage us to ‘go paperless’. The fact is that day today changing technologically is very sound and up to date. Basically the idea is to tell how to store the data electronically safe and secure. All three exemplifies the fact that an electronic format has its own benefit as well as barriers.

Keywords: medical records, digital records, health information, electronic record system

Procedia PDF Downloads 453
923 Legal Pluralism and Efficiency in International Marriage Law: Implications of Regulatory Competition on an Analysis of Conflict of Law Rules

Authors: Rorick Daniel Tovar Galvan

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The existence of different legal systems represents an important barrier for married couples that attempt to reside in another country. Each movement can cause important changes in the rights and obligations derived from the marriage since a different law could be used by the courts to solve legal disputes arising from their relationship. In a context in which it is increasingly common to move from one country to another, people cannot be certain about the outcomes of proceedings dealing with i.e., the dissolution of property regime, maintenance payments or time to wait to initiate divorce because a foreign – and in most cases unknown – law could apply every time they move. At first glance, the answer to this issue seems to be the harmonization of the legal systems: the greater the mobility of individuals inside a group of countries, the higher the similarities of their laws should be. Such a solution could be positive for spouses because a higher degree of legal certainty would be reached in case the same legal rules applied regardless of the place where the couple lives. However, the legal pluralism brings with it also advantages that could be appreciated when one looks closely at the economic rationale behind the legal institution of marriage. This contribution carries out an economic analysis of the existence of different legal systems in the area of marriage law and proposes another strategy to cope with the problems arising from legal pluralism. Far from eliminating the diversity of legal systems, one wishes to foster it, since significant advantages could arise from such diversity in case couples are permitted to choose the applicable law themselves. Based on the idea that the law could be seem as a product offered in the market as well as states and spouses as suppliers and consumers of this product, the paper shows the advantages of designing a legal framework that allows spouses to determine freely the law governing the legal effects of their marriage. Instead of promoting the harmonization of the substantive law, one explores the benefits of encouraging the regulatory competition at international level in the area of marriage law.

Keywords: conflict of laws, harmonization, international marriage law, law and economics, regulatory competition

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922 Detection of Aflatoxin B1 Producing Aspergillus flavus Genes from Maize Feed Using Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) Technique

Authors: Sontana Mimapan, Phattarawadee Wattanasuntorn, Phanom Saijit

Abstract:

Aflatoxin contamination in maize, one of several agriculture crops grown for livestock feeding, is still a problem throughout the world mainly under hot and humid weather conditions like Thailand. In this study Aspergillus flavus (A. Flavus), the key fungus for aflatoxin production especially aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), isolated from naturally infected maize were identified and characterized according to colony morphology and PCR using ITS, Beta-tubulin and calmodulin genes. The strains were analysed for the presence of four aflatoxigenic biosynthesis genes in relation to their capability to produce AFB1, Ver1, Omt1, Nor1, and aflR. Aflatoxin production was then confirmed using immunoaffinity column technique. A loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was applied as an innovative technique for rapid detection of target nucleic acid. The reaction condition was optimized at 65C for 60 min. and calcein flurescent reagent was added before amplification. The LAMP results showed clear differences between positive and negative reactions in end point analysis under daylight and UV light by the naked eye. In daylight, the samples with AFB1 producing A. Flavus genes developed a yellow to green color, but those without the genes retained the orange color. When excited with UV light, the positive samples become visible by bright green fluorescence. LAMP reactions were positive after addition of purified target DNA until dilutions of 10⁻⁶. The reaction products were then confirmed and visualized with 1% agarose gel electrophoresis. In this regards, 50 maize samples were collected from dairy farms and tested for the presence of four aflatoxigenic biosynthesis genes using LAMP technique. The results were positive in 18 samples (36%) but negative in 32 samples (64%). All of the samples were rechecked by PCR and the results were the same as LAMP, indicating 100% specificity. Additionally, when compared with the immunoaffinity column-based aflatoxin analysis, there was a significant correlation between LAMP results and aflatoxin analysis (r= 0.83, P < 0.05) which suggested that positive maize samples were likely to be a high- risk feed. In conclusion, the LAMP developed in this study can provide a simple and rapid approach for detecting AFB1 producing A. Flavus genes from maize and appeared to be a promising tool for the prediction of potential aflatoxigenic risk in livestock feedings.

Keywords: Aflatoxin B1, Aspergillus flavus genes, maize, loop-mediated isothermal amplification

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921 The Use of TRIZ to Map the Evolutive Pattern of Products

Authors: Fernando C. Labouriau, Ricardo M. Naveiro

Abstract:

This paper presents a model for mapping the evolutive pattern of products in order to generate new ideas, to perceive emerging technologies and to manage product’s portfolios in new product development (NPD). According to the proposed model, the information extracted from the patent system is filtered and analyzed with TRIZ tools to produce the input information to the NPD process. The authors acknowledge that the NPD process is well integrated within the enterprises business strategic planning and that new products are vital in the competitive market nowadays. In the other hand, it has been observed the proactive use of patent information in some methodologies for selecting projects, mapping technological change and generating product concepts. And one of these methodologies is TRIZ, a theory created to favor innovation and to improve product design that provided the analytical framework for the model. Initially, it is presented an introduction to TRIZ mainly focused on the patterns of evolution of technical systems and its strategic uses, a brief and absolutely non-comprehensive description as the theory has several others tools being widely employed in technical and business applications. Then, it is introduced the model for mapping the products evolutive pattern with its three basic pillars, namely patent information, TRIZ and NPD, and the methodology for implementation. Following, a case study of a Brazilian bike manufacturing is presented to proceed the mapping of a product evolutive pattern by decomposing and analyzing one of its assemblies along ten evolution lines in order to envision opportunities for further product development. Some of these lines are illustrated in more details to evaluate the features of the product in relation to the TRIZ concepts using a comparison perspective with patents in the state of the art to validate the product’s evolutionary potential. As a result, the case study provided several opportunities for a product improvement development program in different project categories, identifying technical and business impacts as well as indicating the lines of evolution that can mostly benefit from each opportunity.

Keywords: product development, patents, product strategy, systems evolution

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920 Design and Development of Engine Valve Train Wear Test Rig for the Assessment of Valve Train Tribochemistry

Authors: V. Manjunath, C. V. Chandrashekara

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Ecosystem authority calls for the use of lubricants with less effect on the nature in terms of exhaust emission, while engine user demands more mileage per liter of fuel without any compromise on engine durability. From this viewpoint, engine manufacturers require the optimum combination of materials and lubricant additive package to minimize friction and wear in the engine components like piston, crankshaft and valve train etc. The demands are placed for requirements to operate at higher speeds, loads, temperature and for extended replacement intervals of engine oil. Besides, it is necessary to accurately predict the lubricant life or the replacement interval to prevent lubrication and valve-train components failure. Experimental tribology evaluation of new engine oils requires large amount of time and energy. Hence low cost bench test is necessary for industries and original equipment manufacturing companies (OEM) to study the performance of lubricants. The present work outlines the procedure for the design and development of a valve train wear rig (MCR) to simulate the ASTMD-6891 and to develop new engine test for Indian automobile sector to evaluate lubricants for Indian automobile market. In order to improve the lubrication between cam and follower of internal combustion engine, the influence of materials or oils viscosity and additives on the friction and wear characteristics are examined with test rig by increasing the contact load at two different revolution speed. From the experimentation following results are made obvious. Temperature, Torque, speed and wear plots are used to validate the data obtained from the newly developed multi-cam cam rig (MCR) with follower against a cast iron camshaft. Camshaft lobe wear is measured at seven different locations on cam profile. Tribofilm formed using 5W-30 oil is evaluated and correlated with the standard test results.

Keywords: ASTMD-6891, multi-cam rig (MCR), 5W-30, cam-profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 170
919 The Role of Women in Climate Change Impact in Kupang-Indonesia

Authors: Rolland Epafras Fanggidae

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The impact of climate change such as natural disasters, crop failures, increasing crop pests, bad gisi on children and other impacts, will indirectly affect education, health, food safety, as well as the economy. The impact of climate change has put a man in a situation of vulnerability, which was powerless to meet the minimum requirements, it is in close contact with poverty. When talking about poverty, the most plausible is female. The role of women in Indonesia, particularly in East Nusa Tenggara in Domestic aktifity very central and dominant. This makes Indonesian woman can say "outstanding actor in the face of climate change mitigation and adaptation and applying local knowledge", but still ignored when women based on gender division of work entrusted role in domestic activities. Similarly, in public activity is an extension of the Domestic example, trading activity in the market lele / mama. Although men are also affected by climate change, but most feel is female. From the above problems, it can be said that Indonesia's commitment has not been followed by optimal empowerment of women's role in addressing climate change, it is necessary to learn to know how the role of women in the face of climate change impacts that hit on her role as a woman, a housewife or head of the family and will be input in order to determine how women find a solution to tackle the problem of climate change. This study focuses on the efforts made by women cope with the impacts of climate change, efforts by the government, empowerment model used in Playing the impact of climate change. The container with the formulation of the title "The Role of Women in Climate Change Impact in Kupang district". Where the assessment in use types Research mix Methods combination of quantitative research and qualitative research. While the location of the research conducted in Kupang regency, East Nusa Tenggara, namely: District of East Kupang is a district granary in Kupang district. Subdistrict West Kupang, especially Tablolong Village is the center of seaweed cultivation in Kupang district.

Keywords: climate change, women, women's roles, gender, family

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918 Innovations for Freight Transport Systems

Authors: M. Lu

Abstract:

The paper presents part of the results of EU-funded projects: SoCool@EU (Sustainable Organisation between Clusters Of Optimized Logistics @ Europe), DG-RTD (Research and Innovation), Regions of Knowledge Programme (FP7-REGIONS-2011-1). It will provide an in-depth review of emerging technologies for further improving urban mobility and freight transport systems, such as (information and physical) infrastructure, ICT-based Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), vehicles, advanced logistics, and services. Furthermore, the paper will provide an analysis of the barriers and will review business models for the market uptake of innovations. From a perspective of science and technology, the challenges of urbanization could be mainly handled through adequate (human-oriented) solutions for urban planning, sustainable energy, the water system, building design and construction, the urban transport system (both physical and information aspects), and advanced logistics and services. Implementation of solutions for these domains should be follow a highly integrated and balanced approach, a silo approach should be avoided. To develop a sustainable urban transport system (for people and goods), including inter-hubs and intra-hubs, a holistic view is needed. To achieve a sustainable transport system for people and goods (in terms of cost-effectiveness, efficiency, environment-friendliness and fulfillment of the mobility, transport and logistics needs of the society), a proper network and information infrastructure, advanced transport systems and operations, as well as ad hoc and seamless services are required. In addition, a road map for an enhanced urban transport system until 2050 will be presented. This road map aims to address the challenges of urban transport, and to provide best practices in inter-city and intra-city environments from various perspectives, including policy, traveler behaviour, economy, liability, business models, and technology.

Keywords: synchromodality, multimodal transport, logistics, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 313
917 Prediction of the Factors Influencing the Utilization of HIV Testing among Young People Aged between 17-25 Years in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdullah Almilaibary, Jeremy Jolley, Mark Hayter

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Background: Despite recent progress in enhancing the accessibility of HIV-related health services worldwide, opportunities to diagnose patients are often missed due to genuine barriers at different levels. The aim of the study is to explore the factors that affect the utilization of HIV testing services by young people aged 17-25 in Saudi Arabia. Methods: A non-experimental descriptive cross-sectional design was used to predict factors that influenced HIV testing among Umm- Al Qura University students aged 17-25 years. A newly developed self-completed online questionnaire was used and the study sample was drawn using a convenience sampling technique. The questionnaire consisted of 52 items divided into three scales: 12 items for HIV/AIDS-related knowledge, 3 items for risk perception, and 37 items for attitudes toward HIV testing. Five experts in the field of HIV/AIDS validated the contents of the questionnaire and agreed that the items included were related to the construct being measured. The reliability of the questionnaire was also assessed using a test/re-test strategy with 27 participants recruited from the population under study. The reliability assessment revealed that the questionnaire was consistent as Cronbach’s Alpha was 0.80 for HIV/ADS knowledge, 0.88 for risk perception and 0.78 for attitudes towards HIV testing. The data were collected between 14th of July and 14th of October 2014. Results: 394 participants completed the questionnaires: 116 (29.4%) male and 278 (70%) female. 50.5% of the participants were aged 20 to 22 years, 34.8% were 17-19 years and 14.7% were aged between 23-25 years; about 93% of the participants were single. Only 20 (6%) participants had previously been tested for HIV. The main reasons for not being tested for HIV were: exposure to HIV was considered unlikely (48%), HIV test was not offered (36%) and unawareness of HIV testing centres (16%). On HIV/AIDS-related knowledge, the male participants scored higher than the females as the mean score for males was (M = 6.4, SD = 2.4) while for females it was (M 5.7, SD 2.5). In terms of risk perception, female participants appeared to have lower levels of risk perception than male participants, with the mean score for males being (M 11.7, SD 2.5) and (M 10.5, SD 2.4) for females. The female participants showed slightly more positive attitudes towards HIV testing than male participants: the mean score for males was (M = 108.14, SD = 17.9) and was (M = 111.32, SD = 17.3) for females. Conclusions: The data reveal that misconceptions about HIV/AIDS in Saudi Arabia are still a challenge. Although the attitudes towards HIV testing were reasonably positive, the utilization of the HIV test was low. Thus, tailoring HIV/AIDS preventive strategies in Saudi Arabia should focus on the needs of young people and other high risk groups in the country.

Keywords: attitude toward hiv testing, hiv testing, hiv/aids related knowledge, risk perception

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916 Scenario Analysis to Assess the Competitiveness of Hydrogen in Securing the Italian Energy System

Authors: Gianvito Colucci, Valeria Di Cosmo, Matteo Nicoli, Orsola Maria Robasto, Laura Savoldi

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The hydrogen value chain deployment is likely to be boosted in the near term by the energy security measures planned by European countries to face the recent energy crisis. In this context, some countries are recognized to have a crucial role in the geopolitics of hydrogen as importers, consumers and exporters. According to the European Hydrogen Backbone Initiative, Italy would be part of one of the 5 corridors that will shape the European hydrogen market. However, the set targets are very ambitious and require large investments to rapidly develop effective hydrogen policies: in this regard, scenario analysis is becoming increasingly important to support energy planning, and energy system optimization models appear to be suitable tools to quantitively carry on that kind of analysis. The work aims to assess the competitiveness of hydrogen in contributing to the Italian energy security in the coming years, under different price and import conditions, using the energy system model TEMOA-Italy. A wide spectrum of hydrogen technologies is included in the analysis, covering the production, storage, delivery, and end-uses stages. National production from fossil fuels with and without CCS, as well as electrolysis and import of low-carbon hydrogen from North Africa, are the supply solutions that would compete with other ones, such as natural gas, biomethane and electricity value chains, to satisfy sectoral energy needs (transport, industry, buildings, agriculture). Scenario analysis is then used to study the competition under different price and import conditions. The use of TEMOA-Italy allows the work to catch the interaction between the economy and technological detail, which is much needed in the energy policies assessment, while the transparency of the analysis and of the results is ensured by the full accessibility of the TEMOA open-source modeling framework.

Keywords: energy security, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, natural gas, open-source modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA

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915 Environmental Related Mortality Rates through Artificial Intelligence Tools

Authors: Stamatis Zoras, Vasilis Evagelopoulos, Theodoros Staurakas

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The association between elevated air pollution levels and extreme climate conditions (temperature, particulate matter, ozone levels, etc.) and mental consequences has been, recently, the focus of significant number of studies. It varies depending on the time of the year it occurs either during the hot period or cold periods but, specifically, when extreme air pollution and weather events are observed, e.g. air pollution episodes and persistent heatwaves. It also varies spatially due to different effects of air quality and climate extremes to human health when considering metropolitan or rural areas. An air pollutant concentration and a climate extreme are taking a different form of impact if the focus area is countryside or in the urban environment. In the built environment the climate extreme effects are driven through the formed microclimate which must be studied more efficiently. Variables such as biological, age groups etc may be implicated by different environmental factors such as increased air pollution/noise levels and overheating of buildings in comparison to rural areas. Gridded air quality and climate variables derived from the land surface observations network of West Macedonia in Greece will be analysed against mortality data in a spatial format in the region of West Macedonia. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools will be used for data correction and prediction of health deterioration with climatic conditions and air pollution at local scale. This would reveal the built environment implications against the countryside. The air pollution and climatic data have been collected from meteorological stations and span the period from 2000 to 2009. These will be projected against the mortality rates data in daily, monthly, seasonal and annual grids. The grids will be operated as AI-based warning models for decision makers in order to map the health conditions in rural and urban areas to ensure improved awareness of the healthcare system by taken into account the predicted changing climate conditions. Gridded data of climate conditions, air quality levels against mortality rates will be presented by AI-analysed gridded indicators of the implicated variables. An Al-based gridded warning platform at local scales is then developed for future system awareness platform for regional level.

Keywords: air quality, artificial inteligence, climatic conditions, mortality

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914 Shaping and Improving the Human Resource Management in Small and Medium Enterprises in Poland

Authors: Małgorzata Smolarek

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One of the barriers to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) are difficulties connected with management of human resources. The first part of article defines the specifics of staff management in small and medium enterprises. The practical part presents results of own studies in the area of diagnosis of the state of the human resources management in small and medium-sized enterprises in Poland. It takes into account its impact on the functioning of SME in a variable environment. This part presents findings of empirical studies, which enabled verification of the hypotheses and formulation of conclusions. The findings presented in this paper were obtained during the implementation of the project entitled 'Tendencies and challenges in strategic managing SME in Silesian Voivodeship.' The aim of the studies was to diagnose the state of strategic management and human resources management taking into account its impact on the functioning of small and medium enterprises operating in Silesian Voivodeship in Poland and to indicate improvement areas of the model under diagnosis. One of the specific objectives of the studies was to diagnose the state of the process of strategic management of human resources and to identify fundamental problems. In this area, the main hypothesis was formulated: The enterprises analysed do not have comprehensive strategies for management of human resources. The survey was conducted by questionnaire. Main Research Results: Human resource management in SMEs is characterized by simplicity of procedures, and the lack of sophisticated tools and its specificity depends on the size of the company. The process of human resources management in SME has to be adjusted to the structure of an organisation, result from its objectives, so that an organisation can fully implement its strategic plans and achieve success and competitive advantage on the market. A guarantee of success is an accurately developed policy of human resources management based on earlier analyses of the existing procedures and possessed human resources.

Keywords: human resources management, human resources policy, personnel strategy, small and medium enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 233