Search results for: software reliability
1654 Automated Weight Painting: Using Deep Neural Networks to Adjust 3D Mesh Skeletal Weights
Authors: John Gibbs, Benjamin Flanders, Dylan Pozorski, Weixuan Liu
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Weight Painting–adjusting the influence a skeletal joint has on a given vertex in a character mesh–is an arduous and time con- suming part of the 3D animation pipeline. This process generally requires a trained technical animator and many hours of work to complete. Our skiNNer plug-in, which works within Autodesk’s Maya 3D animation software, uses Machine Learning and data pro- cessing techniques to create a deep neural network model that can accomplish the weight painting task in seconds rather than hours for bipedal quasi-humanoid character meshes. In order to create a properly trained network, a number of challenges were overcome, including curating an appropriately large data library, managing an arbitrary 3D mesh size, handling arbitrary skeletal architectures, accounting for extreme numeric values (most data points are near 0 or 1 for weight maps), and constructing an appropriate neural network model that can properly capture the high frequency alter- ation between high weight values (near 1.0) and low weight values (near 0.0). The arrived at neural network model is a cross between a traditional CNN, deep residual network, and fully dense network. The resultant network captures the unusually hard-edged features of a weight map matrix, and produces excellent results on many bipedal models.Keywords: 3d animation, animation, character, rigging, skinning, weight painting, machine learning, artificial intelligence, neural network, deep neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 2571653 Survey of the Relationship between Functional Movement Screening Tests and Anthropometric Dimensions in Healthy People, 2018
Authors: Akram Sadat Jafari Roodbandi, Parisa Kahani, Fatollah Rahimi Bafrani, Ali Dehghan, Nava Seyedi, Vafa Feyzi, Zohreh Forozanfar
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Introduction: Movement function is considered as the ability to produce and maintain balance, stability, and movement throughout the movement chain. Having a score of 14 and above on 7 sub-tests in the functional movement screening (FMS) test shows agility and optimal movement performance. On the other hand, the person's body is an important factor in physical fitness and optimal movement performance. The aim of this study was to identify effective anthropometric dimensions in increasing motor function. Methods: This study was a descriptive-analytical and cross-sectional study using simple random sampling. FMS test and 25 anthropometric dimensions and subcutaneous in five body regions measured in 139 healthy students of Bam University of Medical Sciences. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software and univariate tests and linear regressions at a significance level of 0.05. Results: 139 students were enrolled in the study, 51.1% (71 subjects) and the rest were female. The mean and standard deviation of age, weight, height, and arm subcutaneous fat were 21.5 ± 1.45, 12.6 ± 64.3, 168.7 ± 9.8, 15.3 ± 7, respectively. 17 subjects (12.2%) of the participants in the study have a score of less than 14, and the rest were above 14. Using regression analysis, it was found that exercise and arm subcutaneous fat are predictive variables associated with obtaining a high score in the FMS test. Conclusion: Exercise and weight loss are effective factors for increasing the movement performance of individuals, and this factor is independent of the size of other physical dimensions.Keywords: functional movement, screening test, anthropometry, ergonomics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1401652 The Role of Attachment Styles, Gender Schemas, Sexual Self Schemas, and Body Exposures During Sexual Activity in Sexual Function, Marital Satisfaction, and Sexual Self-Esteem
Authors: Hossein Shareh, Farhad Seifi
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The present study was to examine the role of attachment styles, gender schemas, sexual-self schemas, and body image during sexual activity in sexual function, marital satisfaction, and sexual self-esteem. The sampling method was among married women who were living in Mashhad; a snowball selected 765 people. Questionnaires and measures of adult attachment style (AAS), Bem Sex Role Inventory (BSRI), sexual self-schema (SSS), body exposure during sexual activity questionnaire (BESAQ), sexual function female inventory (FSFI), a short form of sexual self-esteem (SSEI-W-SF) and marital satisfaction (Enrich) were completed by participants. Data analysis using Pearson correlation and hierarchical regression and case analysis was performed by SPSS-19 software. The results showed that there is a significant correlation (P <0.05) between attachment and sexual function (r=0.342), marital satisfaction (r=0.351) and sexual self-esteem (r =0.292). A correlation (P <0.05) was observed between sexual schema (r=0.342) and sexual esteem (r=0.31). A meaningful correlation (P <0.05) exists between gender stereotypes and sexual function (r=0.352). There was a significant inverse correlation (P <0.05) between body image and their performance during sexual activity (r=0.41). There is no significant relationship between gender schemas, sexual schemas, body image, and marital satisfaction, and no relation was found between gender schemas, body image, and sexual self-esteem. Also, the result of the regression showed that attachment styles, gender schemas, sexual self- schemas, and body exposures during sexual activity are predictable in sexual function, and marital satisfaction can be predicted by attachment style and gender schema. Somewhat, sexual self-esteem can be expected by attachment style and gender schemas.Keywords: attachment styles, gender and sexual schemas, body image, sexual function, marital satisfaction, sexual self-esteem
Procedia PDF Downloads 251651 Assessment of Groundwater Quality in Kaltungo Local Government Area of Gombe State
Authors: Rasaq Bello, Grace Akintola Sunday, Yemi Sikiru Onifade
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Groundwater is required for the continuity of life and sustainability of the ecosystem. Hence, this research was purposed to assess groundwater quality for domestic use in Kaltungo Local Government Area, Gombe State. The work was also aimed at determining the thickness and resistivity of the topsoil, areas suitable for borehole construction, quality and potentials of groundwater in the study area. The study area extends from latitude N10015’38” - E11008’01” and longitude N10019’29” - E11013’05”. The data was acquired using the Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) method and processed using IP12win software. Twenty (20) Vertical Electrical Soundings were carried out with a maximum current electrode separation (AB) of 150m. The VES curves generated from the data reveal that all the VES points have five to six subsurface layers. The first layer has a resistivity value of 7.5 to 364.1 Ωm and a thickness ranging from 0.8 to 7.4m, and the second layer has a resistivity value of 1.8 to 600.3 Ωm thickness ranging from 2.6 to 31.4m, the third layer has resistivity value of 23.3 to 564.4 Ωm thickness ranging from 10.3 to 77.8m, the fourth layer has resistivity value of 19.7 to 640.2 Ωm thickness ranging from 8.2m to 120.0m, the fifth layer has resistivity value of 27 to 234 Ωm thickness ranging from 8.2 to 53.7m and the six-layer is the layer that extended beyond the probing depth. The VES curves generated from the data revealed KQHA curve type for VES 1, HKQQ curve for VES 4, HKQ curve for VES 5, KHA curve for VES 11, QQHK curve for VES 12, HAA curve for VES 6 and VES 19, HAKH curve for VES 7, VES 8, VES 10 and VES 18, HKH curve for VES 2, VES 3, VES 9, VES 13, VES 14, VES 15, VES 16, VES 17 and VES 20. Values of the Coefficient of Anisotropy, Reflection Coefficient, and Resistivity Contrast obtained from the Dar-Zarrouk parameters indicated good water prospects for all the VES points in this study, with VES points 4, 9 and 18 having the highest prospects for groundwater exploration.Keywords: formation parameters, groundwater, resistivity, resistivity contrast, vertical electrical sounding
Procedia PDF Downloads 411650 Vibration Analysis and Optimization Design of Ultrasonic Horn
Authors: Kuen Ming Shu, Ren Kai Ho
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Ultrasonic horn has the functions of amplifying amplitude and reducing resonant impedance in ultrasonic system. Its primary function is to amplify deformation or velocity during vibration and focus ultrasonic energy on the small area. It is a crucial component in design of ultrasonic vibration system. There are five common design methods for ultrasonic horns: analytical method, equivalent circuit method, equal mechanical impedance, transfer matrix method, finite element method. In addition, the general optimization design process is to change the geometric parameters to improve a single performance. Therefore, in the general optimization design process, we couldn't find the relation of parameter and objective. However, a good optimization design must be able to establish the relationship between input parameters and output parameters so that the designer can choose between parameters according to different performance objectives and obtain the results of the optimization design. In this study, an ultrasonic horn provided by Maxwide Ultrasonic co., Ltd. was used as the contrast of optimized ultrasonic horn. The ANSYS finite element analysis (FEA) software was used to simulate the distribution of the horn amplitudes and the natural frequency value. The results showed that the frequency for the simulation values and actual measurement values were similar, verifying the accuracy of the simulation values. The ANSYS DesignXplorer was used to perform Response Surface optimization, which could shows the relation of parameter and objective. Therefore, this method can be used to substitute the traditional experience method or the trial-and-error method for design to reduce material costs and design cycles.Keywords: horn, natural frequency, response surface optimization, ultrasonic vibration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1041649 User-Awareness from Eye Line Tracing During Specification Writing to Improve Specification Quality
Authors: Yoshinori Wakatake
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Many defects after the release of software packages are caused due to omissions of sufficient test items in test specifications. Poor test specifications are detected by manual review, which imposes a high human load. The prevention of omissions depends on the end-user awareness of test specification writers. If test specifications were written while envisioning the behavior of end-users, the number of omissions in test items would be greatly reduced. The paper pays attention to the point that writers who can achieve it differ from those who cannot in not only the description richness but also their gaze information. It proposes a method to estimate the degree of user-awareness of writers through the analysis of their gaze information when writing test specifications. We conduct an experiment to obtain the gaze information of a writer of the test specifications. Test specifications are automatically classified using gaze information. In this method, a Random Forest model is constructed for the classification. The classification is highly accurate. By looking at the explanatory variables which turn out to be important variables, we know behavioral features to distinguish test specifications of high quality from others. It is confirmed they are pupil diameter size and the number and the duration of blinks. The paper also investigates test specifications automatically classified with gaze information to discuss features in their writing ways in each quality level. The proposed method enables us to automatically classify test specifications. It also prevents test item omissions, because it reveals writing features that test specifications of high quality should satisfy.Keywords: blink, eye tracking, gaze information, pupil diameter, quality improvement, specification document, user-awareness
Procedia PDF Downloads 561648 ACTN3 Genotype Association with Motoric Performance of Roma Children
Authors: J. Bernasovska, I. Boronova, J. Poracova, M. Mydlarova Blascakova, V. Szabadosova, P. Ruzbarsky, E. Petrejcikova, I. Bernasovsky
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The paper presents the results of the molecular genetics analysis in sports research, with special emphasis to use genetic information in diagnosing of motoric predispositions in Roma boys from East Slovakia. The ability and move are the basic characteristics of all living organisms. The phenotypes are influenced by a combination of genetic and environmental factors. Genetic tests differ in principle from the traditional motoric tests, because the DNA of an individual does not change during life. The aim of the presented study was to examine motion abilities and to determine the frequency of ACTN3 (R577X) gene in Roma children. Genotype data were obtained from 138 Roma and 155 Slovak boys from 7 to 15 years old. Children were investigated on physical performance level in association with their genotype. Biological material for genetic analyses comprised samples of buccal swabs. Genotypes were determined using Real Time High resolution melting PCR method (Rotor-Gene 6000 Corbett and Light Cycler 480 Roche). The software allows creating reports of any analysis, where information of the specific analysis, normalized and differential graphs and many information of the samples are shown. Roma children of analyzed group legged to non-Romany children at the same age in all the compared tests. The % distribution of R and X alleles in Roma children was different from controls. The frequency of XX genotype was 9.26%, RX 46.33% and RR was 44.41%. The frequency of XX genotype was 9.26% which is comparable to a frequency of an Indian population. Data were analyzed with the ANOVA test.Keywords: ACTN3 gene, R577X polymorphism, Roma children, sport performance, Slovakia
Procedia PDF Downloads 3301647 Thermal Maturity and Hydrocarbon Generation Histories of the Silurian Tannezuft Shale Formation, Ghadames Basin, Northwestern Libya
Authors: Emir Borovac, Sedat İnan
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The Silurian Tannezuft Formation within the Ghadames Basin of Northwestern Libya, like other Silurian shales in North Africa and the Middle East, represents a significant prospect for unconventional hydrocarbon exploration. Unlike the more popular and extensively studied Sirt Basin, the Ghadames Basin remains underexplored, presenting untapped potential that warrants further investigation. This study focuses on the thermal maturity and hydrocarbon generation histories of the Tannezuft shales, utilizing calibrated basin modeling approaches. The Tannezuft shales are organic-rich and primarily contain Type II kerogen, especially in the basal layer, which contains up to 10 wt. % TOC, leading to its designation as ‘hot shale’. The research integrates geological, geochemical, and basin modeling data to elucidate the unconventional hydrocarbon potential of this formation, which is crucial given the global demand for energy and the need for new resources. By employing PetroMod software from Schlumberger, calibrated modeling results simulate hydrocarbon generation and migration within the Tannezuft shales. The findings suggest dual-phase hydrocarbon generation from the Lower Silurian Tannezuft source rock, related to deep burial prior to Hercynian orogeny and subsequent Alpine orogeny events. The Ghadames Basin's tectonic history, including major Hercynian and Alpine orogenies, has significantly influenced the generation, migration, and preservation of hydrocarbons, making the Ghadames Basin a promising area for further exploration.Keywords: tanezzuft formation, ghadames basin, silurian hot shale, unconventional hydrocarbon
Procedia PDF Downloads 81646 Preparation and Modeling Carbon Nanofibers as an Adsorbent to Protect the Environment
Authors: Maryam Ziaei, Saeedeh Rafiei, Leila Mivehi, Akbar Khodaparast Haghi
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Carbon nanofibers possess properties that are rarely present in any other types of carbon adsorbents, including a small cross-sectional area, combined with a multitude of slit shaped nanopores that are suitable for adsorption of certain types of molecules. Because of their unique properties these materials can be used for the selective adsorption of organic molecules. On the other hand, activated carbon fiber (ACF) has been widely applied as an effective adsorbent for micro-pollutants in recent years. ACF effectively adsorbs and removes a full spectrum of harmful substances. Although there are various methods of fabricating carbon nanofibres, electrospinning is perhaps the most versatile procedure. This technique has been given great attention in current decades because of the nearly simple, comfortable and low cost. Spinning process control and achieve optimal conditions is important in order to effect on its physical properties, absorbency and versatility with different industrial purposes. Modeling and simulation are suitable methods to obtain this approach. In this paper, activated carbon nanofibers were produced during electrospinning of polyacrylonitrile solution. Stabilization, carbonization and activation of electrospun nanofibers in optimized conditions were achieved, and mathematical modelling of electrosinning process done by focusing on governing equations of electrified fluid jet motion (using FeniCS software). Experimental and theoretical results will be compared with each other in order to estimate the accuracy of the model. The simulation can provide the possibility of predicting essential parameters, which affect the electrospinning process.Keywords: carbon nanofibers, electrospinning, electrospinning modeling, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2811645 Determination of ILSS of Composite Materials Using Micromechanical FEA Analysis
Authors: K. Rana, H.A.Saeed, S. Zahir
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Inter Laminar Shear Stress (ILSS) is a main key parameter which quantify the properties of composite materials. These properties can ascertain the use of material for a specific purpose like aerospace, automotive etc. A modelling approach for determination of ILSS is presented in this paper. Geometric modelling of composite material is performed in TEXGEN software where reinforcement, cured matrix and their interfaces are modelled separately as per actual geometry. Mechanical properties of matrix and reinforcements are modelled separately which incorporated anisotropy in the real world composite material. ASTM D2344 is modelled in ANSYS for ILSS. In macroscopic analysis model approximates the anisotropy of the material and uses orthotropic properties by applying homogenization techniques. Shear Stress analysis in that case does not show the actual real world scenario and rather approximates it. In this paper actual geometry and properties of reinforcement and matrix are modelled to capture the actual stress state during the testing of samples as per ASTM standards. Testing of samples is also performed in order to validate the results. Fibre volume fraction of yarn is determined by image analysis of manufactured samples. Fibre volume fraction data is incorporated into the numerical model for correction of transversely isotropic properties of yarn. A comparison between experimental and simulated results is presented.Keywords: ILSS, FEA, micromechanical, fibre volume fraction, image analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3611644 An Approach towards Designing an Energy Efficient Building through Embodied Energy Assessment: A Case of Apartment Building in Composite Climate
Authors: Ambalika Ekka
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In today’s world, the growing demand for urban built forms has resulted in the production and consumption of building materials i.e. embodied energy in building construction, leading to pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, new buildings will offer a unique opportunity to implement more energy efficient building without compromising on building performance of the building. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. The paper results in an approach towards designing an energy efficient apartment building through embodied energy assessment. This paper discusses the trend of residential development in Rourkela, which includes three case studies of the contemporary houses, followed by architectural elements, number of storeys, predominant material use and plot sizes using primary data. It results in identification of predominant material used and other characteristics in urban area. Further, the embodied energy coefficients of various dominant building materials and alternative materials manufactured in Indian Industry is taken in consideration from secondary source i.e. literature study. The paper analyses the embodied energy by estimating materials and operational energy of proposed building followed by altering the specifications of the materials based on the building components i.e. walls, flooring, windows, insulation and roof through res build India software and comparison of different options is assessed with consideration of sustainable parameters. This paper results that autoclaved aerated concrete block only reaches the energy performance Index benchmark i.e. 69.35 kWh/m2 yr i.e. by saving 4% of operational energy and as embodied energy has no particular index, out of all materials it has the highest EE 23206202.43 MJ.Keywords: energy efficient, embodied energy, EPI, building materials
Procedia PDF Downloads 1811643 Solar Cell Packed and Insulator Fused Panels for Efficient Cooling in Cubesat and Satellites
Authors: Anand K. Vinu, Vaishnav Vimal, Sasi Gopalan
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All spacecraft components have a range of allowable temperatures that must be maintained to meet survival and operational requirements during all mission phases. Due to heat absorption, transfer, and emission on one side, the satellite surface presents an asymmetric temperature distribution and causes a change in momentum, which can manifest in spinning and non-spinning satellites in different manners. This problem can cause orbital decays in satellites which, if not corrected, will interfere with its primary objective. The thermal analysis of any satellite requires data from the power budget for each of the components used. This is because each of the components has different power requirements, and they are used at specific times in an orbit. There are three different cases that are run, one is the worst operational hot case, the other one is the worst non-operational cold case, and finally, the operational cold case. Sunlight is a major source of heating that takes place on the satellite. The way in which it affects the spacecraft depends on the distance from the Sun. Any part of a spacecraft or satellite facing the Sun will absorb heat (a net gain), and any facing away will radiate heat (a net loss). We can use the state-of-the-art foldable hybrid insulator/radiator panel. When the panels are opened, that particular side acts as a radiator for dissipating the heat. Here the insulator, in our case, the aerogel, is sandwiched with solar cells and radiator fins (solar cells outside and radiator fins inside). Each insulated side panel can be opened and closed using actuators depending on the telemetry data of the CubeSat. The opening and closing of the panels are dependent on the special code designed for this particular application, where the computer calculates where the Sun is relative to the satellites. According to the data obtained from the sensors, the computer decides which panel to open and by how many degrees. For example, if the panels open 180 degrees, the solar panels will directly face the Sun, in turn increasing the current generator of that particular panel. One example is when one of the corners of the CubeSat is facing or if more than one side is having a considerable amount of sun rays incident on it. Then the code will analyze the optimum opening angle for each panel and adjust accordingly. Another means of cooling is the passive way of cooling. It is the most suitable system for a CubeSat because of its limited power budget constraints, low mass requirements, and less complex design. Other than this fact, it also has other advantages in terms of reliability and cost. One of the passive means is to make the whole chase act as a heat sink. For this, we can make the entire chase out of heat pipes and connect the heat source to this chase with a thermal strap that transfers the heat to the chassis.Keywords: passive cooling, CubeSat, efficiency, satellite, stationary satellite
Procedia PDF Downloads 881642 Design and Performance Evaluation of Plasma Spouted Bed Reactor for Converting Waste Plastic into Green Hydrogen
Authors: Palash Kumar Mollick, Leire Olazar, Laura Santamaria, Pablo Comendador, Gartzen Lopez, Martin Olazar
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Average calorific value of a mixure of waste plastic is approximately 38 MJ/kg. Present work aims to extract maximum possible energy from a mixure of waste plastic using a DC thermal plasma in a spouted bed reactor. Plasma pyrolysis and steam reforming process has shown a potential to generate hydrogen from plastic with much below of legal limit of producing dioxins and furans as the carcinogenic gases. A spouted bed pyrolysis rector can continuously process plastic beads to produce organic volatiles, which later react with steam in presence of catalyst to results in syngas. lasma being the fourth state of matter, can carry high impact electrons to favour the activation energy of any chemical reactions. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulation using COMSOL Multiphysics software has been performed to evaluate performance of a plasma spouted bed reactor in producing contamination free hydrogen as a green energy from waste plastic beads. The simulation results will showcase a design of a plasma spouted bed reactor for converting plastic waste into green hydrogen in a single step process. The high temperature hydrodynamics of spouted bed with plastic beads and the corresponding temperature distribution inside the reaction chamber will be critically examined for it’s near future installation of demonstration plant.Keywords: green hydrogen, plastic waste, synthetic gas, pyrolysis, steam reforming, spouted bed, reactor design, plasma, dc palsma, cfd simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 941641 The Influence of Atmospheric Air on the Health of the Population Living in Oil and Gas Production Area in Aktobe Region, Kazakhstan
Authors: Perizat Aitmaganbet, Kerbez Kimatova, Gulmira Umarova
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As a result of medical check-up conducted in the framework of this research study an evaluation of the health status of the population living in the oil-producing regions, namely Sarkul and Kenkiyak villages in Aktobe was examined. With the help of the Spearman correlation, the connection between the level of hazard chemical elements in the atmosphere and the health of population living in the regions of oil and gas industry was estimated. Background & Objective. The oil and gas resource-extraction industries play an important role in improving the economic conditions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, especially for the oil-producing administrative regions. However, environmental problems may adversely affect the health of people living in that area. Thus, the aim of the study is to evaluate the exposure to negative environmental factors of the adult population living in Sarkul and Kenkiyak villages, the oil and gas producing areas in the Aktobe region. Methods. After conducting medical check-up among the population of Sarkul and Kenkiyak villages. A single cross-sectional study was conducted. The population consisted of randomly sampled 372 adults (181 males and 191 females). Also, atmospheric air probes were taken to measure the level of hazardous chemical elements in the air. The nonparametric method of the Spearman correlation analysis was performed between the mean concentration of substances exceeding the Maximum Permissible Concentration and the classes of newly diagnosed diseases. Selection and analysis of air samples were carried out according to the developed research protocol; the qualitative-quantitative analysis was carried out on the Gas analyzer HANK-4 apparatus. Findings. The medical examination of the population identified the following diseases: the first two dominant were diseases of the circulatory and digestive systems, in the 3rd place - diseases of the genitourinary system, and the nervous system and diseases of the ear and mastoid process were on the fourth and fifth places. Moreover, significant pollution of atmospheric air by carbon monoxide (MPC-5,0 mg/m3), benzapyrene (MPC-1mg/m3), dust (MPC-0,5 mg/m3) and phenol (МРС-0,035mg/m3) were identified in places. Correlation dependencies between these pollutants of air and the diseases of the population were established, as a result of diseases of the circulatory system (r = 0,7), ear and mastoid process (r = 0,7), nervous system (r = 0,6) and digestive organs(r = 0,6 ); between the concentration of carbon monoxide and diseases of the circulatory system (r = 0.6), the digestive system(r = 0.6), the genitourinary system (r = 0.6) and the musculoskeletal system; between nitric oxide and diseases of the digestive system (r = 0,7) and the circulatory system (r = 0,6); between benzopyrene and diseases of the digestive system (r = 0,6), the genitourinary system (r = 0,6) and the nervous system (r = 0,4). Conclusion. The positive correlation was found between air pollution and the health of the population living in Sarkul and Kenkiyak villages. To enhance the reliability of the results we are going to continue this study further.Keywords: atmospheric air, chemical substances, oil and gas, public health
Procedia PDF Downloads 1061640 Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecasting Monthly Flows in Waterval River, South Africa
Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka
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Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise
Procedia PDF Downloads 1971639 Reliability of Clinical Coding in Accurately Estimating the Actual Prevalence of Adverse Drug Event Admissions
Authors: Nisa Mohan
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Adverse drug event (ADE) related hospital admissions are common among older people. The first step in prevention is accurately estimating the prevalence of ADE admissions. Clinical coding is an efficient method to estimate the prevalence of ADE admissions. The objective of the study is to estimate the rate of under-coding of ADE admissions in older people in New Zealand and to explore how clinical coders decide whether or not to code an admission as an ADE. There has not been any research in New Zealand to explore these areas. This study is done using a mixed-methods approach. Two common and serious ADEs in older people, namely bleeding and hypoglycaemia were selected for the study. In study 1, eight hundred medical records of people aged 65 years and above who are admitted to hospital due to bleeding and hypoglycemia during the years 2015 – 2016 were selected for quantitative retrospective medical records review. This selection was made to estimate the proportion of ADE-related bleeding and hypoglycemia admissions that are not coded as ADEs. These files were reviewed and recorded as to whether the admission was caused by an ADE. The hospital discharge data were reviewed to check whether all the ADE admissions identified in the records review were coded as ADEs, and the proportion of under-coding of ADE admissions was estimated. In study 2, thirteen clinical coders were selected to conduct qualitative semi-structured interviews using a general inductive approach. Participants were selected purposively based on their experience in clinical coding. Interview questions were designed in a way to investigate the reasons for the under-coding of ADE admissions. The records review study showed that 35% (Cl 28% - 44%) of the ADE-related bleeding admissions and 22% of the ADE-related hypoglycemia admissions were not coded as ADEs. Although the quality of clinical coding is high across New Zealand, a substantial proportion of ADE admissions were under-coded. This shows that clinical coding might under-estimate the actual prevalence of ADE related hospital admissions in New Zealand. The interviews with the clinical coders added that lack of time for searching for information to confirm an ADE admission, inadequate communication with clinicians, along with coders’ belief that an ADE is a small thing might be the potential reasons for the under-coding of the ADE admissions. This study urges the coding policymakers, auditors, and trainers to engage with the unconscious cognitive biases and short-cuts of the clinical coders. These results highlight that further work is needed on interventions to improve the clinical coding of ADE admissions, such as providing education to coders about the importance of ADEs, education to clinicians about the importance of clear and confirmed medical records entries, availing pharmacist service to improve the detection and clear documentation of ADE admissions and including a mandatory field in the discharge summary about external causes of diseases.Keywords: adverse drug events, bleeding, clinical coders, clinical coding, hypoglycemia
Procedia PDF Downloads 1221638 Price Control: A Comprehensive Step to Control Corruption in the Society
Authors: Muhammad Zia Ullah Baig, Atiq Uz Zama
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The motivation of the project is to facilitate the governance body, as well as the common man in his/her daily life consuming product rates, to easily monitor the expense, to control the budget with the help of single SMS (message), e-mail facility, and to manage governance body by task management system. The system will also be capable of finding irregularities being done by the concerned department in mitigating the complaints generated by the customer and also provide a solution to overcome problems. We are building a system that easily controls the price control system of any country, we will feeling proud to give this system free of cost to Indian Government also. The system is able to easily manage and control the price control department of government all over the country. Price control department run in different cities under City District Government, so the system easily run in different cities with different SMS Code and decentralize Database ensure the non-functional requirement of system (scalability, reliability, availability, security, safety). The customer request for the government official price list with respect to his/her city SMS code (price list of all city available on website or application), the server will forward the price list through a SMS, if the product is not available according to the price list the customer generate a complaint through an SMS or using website/smartphone application, complaint is registered in complaint database and forward to inspection department when the complaint is entertained, the inspection department will forward a message about the complaint to customer. Inspection department physically checks the seller who does not follow the price list, but the major issue of the system is corruption, may be inspection officer will take a bribe and resolve the complaint (complaint is fake) in that case the customer will not use the system. The major issue of the system is to distinguish the fake and real complain and fight for corruption in the department. To counter the corruption, our strategy is to rank the complain if the same type of complaint is generated the complaint is in high rank and the higher authority will also notify about that complain, now the higher authority of department have reviewed the complaint and its history, the officer who resolve that complaint in past and the action against the complaint, these data will help in decision-making process, if the complaint was resolved because the officer takes bribe, the higher authority will take action against that officer. When the price of any good is decided the market/former representative is also there, with the mutual understanding of both party the price is decided, the system facilitate the decision-making process. The system shows the price history of any goods, inflation rate, available supply, demand, and the gap between supply and demand, these data will help to allot for the decision-making process.Keywords: price control, goods, government, inspection, department, customer, employees
Procedia PDF Downloads 4051637 Investigating the Effect of the Shape of the Side Supports of the Gates of the Gotvand Reservoir Dam (from the Peak Overflows) on the Narrowing Coefficients
Authors: M. Abbasi
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A spillway structure is used to pass excess water and floods from upstream or upstream to downstream or tributary. The spillway is considered one of the most key members of the dam, and the failure of many dams is attributed to the inefficiency of their spillway. Weirs should be selected as strong, reliable and high-performance structures, and weirs should be ready for use in all conditions and able to drain the flood so that we do not witness many casualties and financial losses when a flood occurs. The purpose of this study is to simulate the flow pattern passing over the peak spillway in order to optimize and adjust the height of the spillway walls. In this research, the effect of the shape of the side wings on the flow pattern over the peak spillways of the Gotvand reservoir dam was simulated and modelled using Flow3D software. In this research, side wings with rounded walls with six different approach angles were used. In addition, the different value of H/Hd was used to check the effect of the tank head. The results showed that with the constant H/Hd ratio and the increase of the approach angle of the side wing, the flow depth first decreases and then increases. These changes were the opposite regarding the depth average speed of the flow and the depth average concentration of the air entering the flow. At the same time, with the constant angle of approach of the side wing and with the increase of H/Hd ratio, the flow depth increases. In general, a correct understanding of the operation of overflows and a correct design can significantly reduce construction costs and solve flooding problems.Keywords: effect of the shape, gotvand reservoir dam, narrowing coefficients, supports of the gates
Procedia PDF Downloads 561636 Mechanical Properties and Crack Extension Mechanism of Rock Contained Blocks Under Uniaxial Compression
Authors: Ruiyang Bi
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Natural rock masses are cut into rock blocks of different shapes and sizes by intersecting joints. These rock blocks often determine the mechanical properties of the rock mass. In this study, fine sandstone cube specimens were produced, and three intersecting joint cracks were cut inside the specimen. Uniaxial compression tests were conducted using mechanical tests and numerical simulation methods to study the mechanical properties and crack propagation mechanism of triangular blocks within the rock. During the test, the mechanical strength, acoustic emission characteristics and strain field evolution of the specimen were analyzed. Discrete element software was used to study the expansion of microcracks during the specimen failure process, and the crack types were divided. The simulation results show that as the inclination angles of the three joints increase simultaneously, the mechanical strength of the specimen first decreases and then increases, and the crack type is mainly shear. As the inclination angle of a single joint increases, the strength of the specimen gradually decreases. When the inclination angles of the two joints increase at the same time, the strength of the specimen gradually decreases. The research results show that the stability of the rock mass is affected by the joint inclination angle and the size of the cut blocks. The greater the joint dip and block size, the more significant the development of micro-cracks in the rock mass, and the worse the stability.Keywords: rock joints, uniaxial compression, crack extension, discrete element simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 531635 Bluetooth Communication Protocol Study for Multi-Sensor Applications
Authors: Joao Garretto, R. J. Yarwood, Vamsi Borra, Frank Li
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Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) has emerged as one of the main wireless communication technologies used in low-power electronics, such as wearables, beacons, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. BLE’s energy efficiency characteristic, smart mobiles interoperability, and Over the Air (OTA) capabilities are essential features for ultralow-power devices, which are usually designed with size and cost constraints. Most current research regarding the power analysis of BLE devices focuses on the theoretical aspects of the advertising and scanning cycles, with most results being presented in the form of mathematical models and computer software simulations. Such computer modeling and simulations are important for the comprehension of the technology, but hardware measurement is essential for the understanding of how BLE devices behave in real operation. In addition, recent literature focuses mostly on the BLE technology, leaving possible applications and its analysis out of scope. In this paper, a coin cell battery-powered BLE Data Acquisition Device, with a 4-in-1 sensor and one accelerometer, is proposed and evaluated with respect to its Power Consumption. First, evaluations of the device in advertising mode with the sensors turned off completely, followed by the power analysis when each of the sensors is individually turned on and data is being transmitted, and concluding with the power consumption evaluation when both sensors are on and respectively broadcasting the data to a mobile phone. The results presented in this paper are real-time measurements of the electrical current consumption of the BLE device, where the energy levels that are demonstrated are matched to the BLE behavior and sensor activity.Keywords: bluetooth low energy, power analysis, BLE advertising cycle, wireless sensor node
Procedia PDF Downloads 791634 Optimization Parameters Using Response Surface Method on Biomechanical Analysis for Malaysian Soccer Players
Authors: M. F. M. Ali, A. R. Ismail, B. M. Deros
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Soccer is very popular and ranked as the top sports in the world as well as in Malaysia. Although soccer sport in Malaysia is currently professionalized, but it’s plunging achievements within recent years continue and are not to be proud of. After review, the Malaysian soccer players are still weak in terms of kicking techniques. The instep kick is a technique, which is often used in soccer for the purpose of short passes and making a scoring. This study presents the 3D biomechanics analysis on a soccer player during performing instep kick. This study was conducted to determine the optimization value for approach angle, distance of supporting leg from the ball and ball internal pressure respect to the knee angular velocity of the ball on the kicking leg. Six subjects from different categories using dominant right leg and free from any injury were selected to take part in this study. Subjects were asked to perform one step instep kick according to the setting for the variables with different parameter. Data analysis was performed using 3 Dimensional “Qualisys Track Manager” system and will focused on the bottom of the body from the waist to the ankle. For this purpose, the marker will be attached to the bottom of the body before the kicking is perform by the subjects. Statistical analysis was conducted by using Minitab software using Response Surface Method through Box-Behnken design. The results of this study found the optimization values for all three parameters, namely the approach angle, 53.6º, distance of supporting leg from the ball, 8.84sm and ball internal pressure, 0.9bar with knee angular velocity, 779.27 degrees/sec have been produced.Keywords: biomechanics, instep kick, soccer, optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 2241633 Consequences of Adolescent Childbearing Among Teen Mothers In Gatsibo District, Rwanda
Authors: Joselyne Rugema, Innocent Twagirayezu, Aimable Nkurunziza, Alice Nyirazigama, Vedaste Bagweneza, Belancilla Nikuze
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Introduction: Burn injuries among children are associated with major complications. Early health care seeking and appropriate management are crucial in saving lives and preventing complications. Objective: To assess home-based management practices and health seeking behaviors among caregivers of children admitted with burn injuries at selected hospitals in Rwanda. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted among caregivers of children admitted with burn injuries at three hospitals in Kigali. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the data that were analyzed using SPSS version 25. Statistical software Results: Most of the children with burn injuries had median age of 36 months, and 89.9% had second-degree burns. 92.4% of burns happened at home and 63.3% were scalds. Only 18% of the caregivers seek care immediately after children’s burn injuries. About 2.5% reported not seeking any care after burn injuries and 3.8% sought care from traditional healers. 65.9% of the participants used wrong practices before seeking care such as applying honey, cooking oil and urine to the burn injuries. Transportation difficulties before consulting health facilities were the main reported faced barriers to success health care (86.1%). Conclusion: Immediate health seeking behavior was low. Wrong practices including application of harmful products to burn injuries are common in the community. There is a need for community based interventions to prevent burn injuries at home and to empower the community with appropriate actions to take after injuries.Keywords: adolescent pregnancy, qualitative design, childbearing, teenage mothers
Procedia PDF Downloads 511632 High Performance Concrete Using “BAUT” (Metal Aggregates) the Gateway to New Concrete Technology for Mega Structures
Authors: Arjun, Gautam, Sanjeev Naval
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Concrete technology has been changing rapidly and constantly since its discovery. Concrete is the most widely used man-made construction material, versatility of making concrete is the 2nd largest consumed material on earth. In this paper an effort has been made to use metal aggregates in concrete has been discussed, the metal aggregates has been named as “BAUT” which had outstandingly qualities to resist shear, tension and compression forces. In this paper, COARSE BAUT AGGREGATES (C.B.A.) 10mm & 20mm and FINE BAUT AGGREGATES (F.B.A.) 3mm were divided and used for making high performance concrete (H.P.C). This “BAUT” had cutting edge technology through draft and design by the use of Auto CAD, ANSYS software can be used effectively In this research paper we study high performance concrete (H.P.C) with “BAUT” and consider the grade of M65 and finally we achieved the result of 90-95 Mpa (high compressive strength) for mega structures and irregular structures where center of gravity (CG) is not balanced. High Performance BAUT Concrete is the extraordinary qualities like long-term performance, no sorptivity by BAUT AGGREGATES, better rheological, mechanical and durability proportion that conventional concrete. This high strength BAUT concrete using “BAUT” is applied in the construction of mega structure like skyscrapers, dam, marine/offshore structures, nuclear power plants, bridges, blats and impact resistance structures. High Performance BAUT Concrete which is a controlled concrete possesses invariable high strength, reasonable workability and negligibly permeability as compare to conventional concrete by the mix of Super Plasticizers (SMF), silica fume and fly ash.Keywords: BAUT, High Strength Concrete, High Performance Concrete, Fine BAUT Aggregate, Coarse BAUT Aggregate, metal aggregates, cutting edge technology
Procedia PDF Downloads 4941631 Processing and Modeling of High-Resolution Geophysical Data for Archaeological Prospection, Nuri Area, Northern Sudan
Authors: M. Ibrahim Ali, M. El Dawi, M. A. Mohamed Ali
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In this study, the use of magnetic gradient survey, and the geoelectrical ground methods used together to explore archaeological features in Nuri’s pyramids area. Research methods used and the procedures and methodologies have taken full right during the study. The magnetic survey method was used to search for archaeological features using (Geoscan Fluxgate Gradiometer (FM36)). The study area was divided into a number of squares (networks) exactly equal (20 * 20 meters). These squares were collected at the end of the study to give a major network for each region. Networks also divided to take the sample using nets typically equal to (0.25 * 0.50 meter), in order to give a more specific archaeological features with some small bipolar anomalies that caused by buildings built from fired bricks. This definition is important to monitor many of the archaeological features such as rooms and others. This main network gives us an integrated map displayed for easy presentation, and it also allows for all the operations required using (Geoscan Geoplot software). The parallel traverse is the main way to take readings of the magnetic survey, to get out the high-quality data. The study area is very rich in old buildings that vary from small to very large. According to the proportion of the sand dunes and the loose soil, most of these buildings are not visible from the surface. Because of the proportion of the sandy dry soil, there is no connection between the ground surface and the electrodes. We tried to get electrical readings by adding salty water to the soil, but, unfortunately, we failed to confirm the magnetic readings with electrical readings as previously planned.Keywords: archaeological features, independent grids, magnetic gradient, Nuri pyramid
Procedia PDF Downloads 4741630 Modern Well Logs Technology to Improve Geological Model for Libyan Deep Sand Stone Reservoir
Authors: Tarek S. Duzan, Fisal Ben Ammer, Mohamed Sula
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In some places within Sirt Basin-Libya, it has been noticed that seismic data below pre-upper cretaceous unconformity (PUK) is hopeless to resolve the large-scale structural features and is unable to fully determine reservoir delineation. Seismic artifacts (multiples) are observed in the reservoir zone (Nubian Formation) below PUK, which complicate the process of seismic interpretation. The nature of the unconformity and the structures below are still ambiguous and not fully understood which generates a significant gap in characterizing the geometry of the reservoir, the uncertainty accompanied with lack of reliable seismic data creates difficulties in building a robust geological model. High resolution dipmeter is highly useful in steeply dipping zones. This paper uses FMl and OBMl borehole images (dipmeter) to analyze the structures below the PUK unconformity from two wells drilled recently in the North Gialo field (a mature reservoir). In addition, borehole images introduce new evidences that the PUK unconformity is angular and the bedding planes within the Nubian formation (below PUK) are significantly titled. Structural dips extracted from high resolution borehole images are used to construct a new geological model by the utilization of latest software technology. Therefore, it is important to use the advance well logs technology such as FMI-HD for any future drilling and up-date the existing model in order to minimize the structural uncertainty.Keywords: FMI (formation micro imager), OBMI (oil base mud imager), UBI (ultra sonic borehole imager), nub sandstone reservoir in North gialo
Procedia PDF Downloads 3111629 Infectivity of Hyalomma Ticks for Theileria annulata Using 18s rRNA PCR
Authors: Muhammad S. Sajid, A. Iqbal, A. Kausar, M. Jawad-ul-Hassan, Z. Iqbal, Hafiz M. Rizwan, M. Saqib
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Among the ixodid ticks, species of genus Hyalomma are of prime importance as they can survive in harsh conditions better than those of other species. Similarly, among various tick-borne pathogens, Theileria (T.) annulata, the causative agent of tropical theileriosis in large ruminants, is responsible for reduced productivity and ultimately substantial economic losses due to morbidity and mortality. The present study was planned to screening of vector ticks through molecular techniques for determination of tick-borne theileriosis in district Toba Tek Singh (T. T. Singh), Punjab, Pakistan. For this purpose, among the collected ticks (n = 2252) from livestock and their microclimate, Hyalomma spp. were subjected to dissection for procurement of salivary glands (SGs) and formation of pool (averaged 8 acini in each pool). Each pool of acini was used for DNA extraction, quantification and primer-specific amplification of 18S rRNA of Theileria (T.) annulata. The amplicons were electrophoresed using 1.8% agarose gel following by imaging to identify the band specific for T. annulata. For confirmation, the positive amplicons were subjected to sequencing, BLAST analysis and homology search using NCBI software. The number of Theileria-infected acini was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in female ticks vs male ticks, infesting ticks vs questing ticks and riverine-collected vs non-riverine collected. The data provides first attempt to quantify the vectoral capacity of ixodid ticks in Pakistan for T. annulata which can be helpful in estimation of risk analysis of theileriosis to the domestic livestock population of the country.Keywords: Hyalomma anatolicum, ixodids, PCR, Theileria annulata
Procedia PDF Downloads 2791628 Beam Coding with Orthogonal Complementary Golay Codes for Signal to Noise Ratio Improvement in Ultrasound Mammography
Authors: Y. Kumru, K. Enhos, H. Köymen
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In this paper, we report the experimental results on using complementary Golay coded signals at 7.5 MHz to detect breast microcalcifications of 50 µm size. Simulations using complementary Golay coded signals show perfect consistence with the experimental results, confirming the improved signal to noise ratio for complementary Golay coded signals. For improving the success on detecting the microcalcifications, orthogonal complementary Golay sequences having cross-correlation for minimum interference are used as coded signals and compared to tone burst pulse of equal energy in terms of resolution under weak signal conditions. The measurements are conducted using an experimental ultrasound research scanner, Digital Phased Array System (DiPhAS) having 256 channels, a phased array transducer with 7.5 MHz center frequency and the results obtained through experiments are validated by Field-II simulation software. In addition, to investigate the superiority of coded signals in terms of resolution, multipurpose tissue equivalent phantom containing series of monofilament nylon targets, 240 µm in diameter, and cyst-like objects with attenuation of 0.5 dB/[MHz x cm] is used in the experiments. We obtained ultrasound images of monofilament nylon targets for the evaluation of resolution. Simulation and experimental results show that it is possible to differentiate closely positioned small targets with increased success by using coded excitation in very weak signal conditions.Keywords: coded excitation, complementary golay codes, DiPhAS, medical ultrasound
Procedia PDF Downloads 2541627 Comparing the Effects of Ondansetron and Acupressure in PC6 Point on Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting in Patients Undergone Elective Cesarean Section: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Authors: Nasrin Galehdar, Sedigheh Nadri, Elham Nazari, Isan Darvishi, Abouzar Mohammadi
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Background and aim:Nausea and vomiting are complications of cesarean section. The pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches were applied to decrease postoperative nausea and vomiting. The aim of the present study was to compare the effects of Ondansetron and acupressure on postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients undergone an elective cesarean section. Materials and method: The study was designed as a randomized clinical trial. A total of 120 patients were allocated to two equal groups. Four mgs of Ondansetron was administered for the Ondansetron group after clamping the umbilical cord. The acupressure bracelets were fastened in the PC6 point for acupressure group for 15 minutes. The patients were monitored in terms of incidence, severity, and episodes of nausea and vomiting. The data obtained were analyzed by SPSS software version 18 with a significance level of 0.05. Results: There was no significant statistical difference in nausea severity among the groups intra-operatively, in the recovery and surgery wards. The incidence and episodes of vomiting were significantly higher in patients undergone acupressure intra-operatively, in the recovery and surgery wards (P< 0.05). No significant effect of acupressure was reported in reducing postoperative nausea and vomiting. Conclusion: No significant effect of acupressure was reported in reducing postoperative nausea and vomiting. Thus, it is suggested to perform the studies with larger size and comparing the effects of acupressure with other antiemetic medications.Keywords: ondansetron, acupressure, nausea, vomiting
Procedia PDF Downloads 1001626 Determinants of Teenage Pregnancy: The Case of School Adolescents of Arba Minch Town, Southern Ethiopia
Authors: Aleme Mekuria, Samuel Mathewos
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Background: Teenage pregnancy has long been a worldwide social, economic and educational concern for the developed, developing and underdeveloped countries. Studies on adolescent sexuality and pregnancy are very limited in our country. Therefore, this study aims at assessing the prevalence of teenage pregnancy and its determinants among school adolescents of Arba Minch town. Methods: Institution- based, cross-sectional study was conducted from 20-30 March 2014. Systematic sampling technique was used to select a total of 578 students from four schools of the town. Data were collected by trained data collectors using a pre-tested, self-administered structured questionnaire. The analysis was made using the software SPSS version 20.0 statistical packages. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the predictors of teenage pregnancy. Results: The prevalence of teenage pregnancy among school adolescents of Arba Minch town was 7.7%. Being grade11(AOR=4.6;95%CI:1.4,9.3) and grade12 student (AOR=5.8;95% CI:1.3,14.4), not knowing the correct time to take emergency contraceptives(AOR=3.3;95%CI:1.4,7.4), substance use(AOR=3.1;95%CI:1.1,8.8), living with either of biological parents (AOR=3.3;95%CI:1.1,8.7) and poor parent-daughter interaction (AOR=3.1;95%CI:1.1,8.7) were found to be significant predictors of teenage pregnancy. Conclusion: This study revealed a high level of teenage pregnancy among school adolescents of Arba Minch town. A significant number of adolescent female school students were at risk of facing the challenges of teenage pregnancy in the study area. School-based reproductive health education and strong parent-daughter relationships should be strengthened.Keywords: adolescent, Arba minch, risk factors, school, southern Ethiopia, teenage pregnancy
Procedia PDF Downloads 3301625 Risk Assessment of Flood Defences by Utilising Condition Grade Based Probabilistic Approach
Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen
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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling
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