Search results for: tree ring

Authors: Mauricio Quintero Angel, Alexander Pereira, Selene Alarcón

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One of the elements of greatest importance in agricultural production is the harvesting; an activity associated to different occupational health risks such as harvesting in high altitudes, the transport of heavy materials and the application of excessive muscle strain that leads to muscular-bone disorders. Therefore, there is an urgent necessity to improve and validate interventions to reduce exposition and risk to harvesters. This article has the objective of describing the co-development under the ergonomic analysis framework of an assisted manual harvesting tool for peach palm oriented to reduce the risk of death and accidents as it avoid the harvest in heights. The peach palm is a palm tree that is cultivated in Colombia, Perú, Brasil, Costa Rica, among others and that reaches heights of over 20 m, with stipes covered with spines. The fruits are drupes of variable size. For the harvesting of peach palm, in Colombia farmers use the “Marota” or “Climber”, a tool in a closed X shape built in wood, that has two supports adjusted at the stipe, that elevate alternately until reaching a point high enough to grab the bunch that is brought down using a rope. An activity of high risk since it is done at a high altitude without any type of protection and safety measures. The Marota is alternated with a rod, which as variable height between 5 and 12 Meters with a harness system at one end to hold the bunch that is lowered with the whole system (bamboo bunch). The rod is used from the ground or from the Marota in height. As an alternative to traditional tools, the Bajachonta was co-developed with farmers, a tool that employs a traditional bamboo hook system with modifications, to be able to hold it with a rope that passes through a pulley. Once the bunch is hitched, the hook system is detached and this stays attached to the peduncle of the palm tree, afterwards through a pulling force being exerted towards the ground by tensioning the rope, the bunch comes loose to be taken down using a rope and the pulley system to the ground, reducing the risk and efforts in the operation. The bajachonta was evaluated in tree productive zones of Colombia, with innovative farmers, were the adoption is highly probable, with some modifications to improve its efficiency and effectiveness, keeping in mind that the farmers perceive in it an advantage in the reduction of death and accidents by not having to harvest in heights.

Keywords: assisted harvesting, ergonomics, harvesting in high altitudes, participative design, peach palm

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Authors: Vikas Kumar, Kailash Chandra, Kaomud Tyagi

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The insect order Thysanoptera includes small insects commonly called thrips. As insect vectors, only thrips are capable of Tospoviruses transmission (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae) affecting various crops. Currently, fifteen species of subfamily Thripinae (Thripidae) have been reported as vectors for tospoviruses. Frankliniella schultzei, which is reported as act as a vector for at least five tospovirses, have been suspected to be a species complex with more than one species. It is one of the historical unresolved issues where, two species namely, F. schultzei Trybom and F. sulphurea Schmutz were erected from South Africa and Srilanaka respectively. These two species were considered to be valid until 1968 when sulphurea was treated as colour morph (pale form) and synonymised under schultzei (dark form) However, these two have been considered as valid species by some of the thrips workers. Parallel studies have indicated that brown form of schultzei is a vector for tospoviruses while yellow form is a non-vector. However, recent studies have shown that yellow populations have also been documented as vectors. In view of all these facts, it is highly important to have a clear understanding whether these colour forms represent true species or merely different populations with different vector carrying capacities and whether there is some hidden diversity in 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex'. In this study, we aim to study the 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex' with molecular spectacles with DNA data from India and Australia and Africa. A total of fifty-five specimens was collected from diverse locations in India and Australia. We generated molecular data using partial fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (mtCOI) and 28S rRNA gene. For COI dataset, there were seventy-four sequences, out of which data on fifty-five was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. All the four different tree construction methods: neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, yielded the same tree topology and produced five cryptic species with high genetic divergence. For, rDNA, there were forty-five sequences, out of which data on thirty-nine was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. The four tree building methods yielded four cryptic species with high bootstrap support value/posterior probability. Here we could not retrieve one cryptic species from South Africa as we could not generate data on rDNA from South Africa and sequence for rDNA from African region were not available in the database. The results of multiple species delimitation methods (barcode index numbers, automatic barcode gap discovery, general mixed Yule-coalescent, and Poisson-tree-processes) also supported the phylogenetic data and produced 5 and 4 Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) for mtCOI and 28S dataset respectively. These results of our study indicate the likelihood that F. sulphurea may be a valid species, however, more morphological and molecular data is required on specimens from type localities of these two species and comparison with type specimens.

Keywords: DNA barcoding, species complex, thrips, species delimitation

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Authors: Bouabdellah Abed, Mohamed Bouzit, Lakhdar Bouarbi

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The objective of this study is to investigate numerically the effect of roof shaped on wind flow and pollutant dispersion in a street canyon with one row of trees of pore volume, Pvol = 96%. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for evaluating air flow and pollutant dispersion within an urban street canyon using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations and the k-Epsilon EARSM turbulence model as close of the equation system. The numerical model is performed with ANSYS-CFX code. Vehicle emissions were simulated as double line sources along the street. The numerical model was validated against the wind tunnel experiment. Having established this, the wind flow and pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons of six roof shapes are simulated. The numerical simulation agrees reasonably with the wind tunnel data. The results obtained in this work, indicate that the flow in 3D domain is more complicated, this complexity is increased with presence of tree and variability of the roof shapes. The results also indicated that the largest pollutant concentration level for two walls (leeward and windward wall) is observed with the upwind wedge-shaped roof. But the smallest pollutant concentration level is observed with the dome roof-shaped. The results also indicated that the corners eddies provide additional ventilation and lead to lower traffic pollutant concentrations at the street canyon ends.

Keywords: street canyon, pollutant dispersion, trees, building configuration, numerical simulation, k-Epsilon EARSM

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Authors: Hessam Mortezaei, Saeid Joudakian

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In this paper, the wear problem on rider rings of boil off gas compressor has been studied. This kind of oil free double acting compressor has free floating piston (FFP) technology and as a result of that it should have the lowest possible wear on its rider rings. But a design problem had caused a complete wear of rider rings after one month of continuous operation. In this case study, the source of this problem was recognized and solved.

Keywords: piston rider, rings, gas distribution, pressure wear

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Authors: Dalal Alghawas, Jetty Lee, Kaisa Poutanen, Hani El-Nezami

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Oat β-glucan a water soluble non starch linear polysaccharide has been approved as a cholesterol lowering agent by various food safety administrations and is commonly used to reduce the risk of heart disease. The molecular weight of oat β-glucan can vary depending on the extraction and fractionation methods. It is not clear whether the molecular weight has a significant impact at reducing the acceleration of atherosclerosis. The aim of this study was to investigate three different oat β-glucan fractionations on the development of atherosclerosis in vivo. With special focus on plaque stability and the intestinal barrier function. To test this, ApoE-/- female mice were fed a high fat diet supplemented with oat bran, high molecular weight (HMW) oat β-glucan fractionate and low molecular weight (LMW) oat β-glucan fractionate for 16 weeks. Atherosclerosis risk markers were measured in the plasma, heart and aortic tree. Plaque size was measured in the aortic root and aortic tree. ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-Selectin, P-Selectin, protein levels were assessed from the aortic tree to determine plaque stability at 16 weeks. The expression of p22phox at the aortic root was evaluated to study the NADPH oxidase complex involved in nitric oxide bioavailability and vascular elasticity. The tight junction proteins E-cadherin and beta-catenin from western blot analyses were analysed as an intestinal barrier function test. Plasma LPS, intestinal D-lactate levels and hepatic FMO gene expression were carried out to confirm whether the compromised intestinal barrier lead to endotoxemia. The oat bran and HMW oat β-glucan diet groups were more effective than the LMW β-glucan diet group at reducing the plaque size and showed marked improvements in plaque stability. The intestinal barrier was compromised for all the experimental groups however the endotoxemia levels were higher in the LMW β-glucan diet group. The oat bran and HMW oat β-glucan diet groups were more effective at attenuating the development of atherosclerosis. Reasons for this could be due to the LMW oat β-glucan diet group’s low viscosity in the gut and the inability to block the reabsorption of cholesterol. Furthermore the low viscosity may allow more bacterial endotoxin translocation through the impaired intestinal barrier. In future food technologists should carefully consider how to incorporate LMW oat β-glucan as a health promoting food.

Keywords: Atherosclerosis, beta glucan, endotoxemia, intestinal barrier function

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Authors: Olga I. Moskalenko, Maksim O. Zhuravlev, Alexey A. Koronovskii, Alexander E. Hramov

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Intermittent behavior near the boundary of phase synchronization in the presence of noise is studied. In certain range of the coupling parameter and noise intensity the intermittency of eyelet and ring intermittencies is shown to take place. Main results are illustrated using the example of two unidirectionally coupled Rössler systems. Similar behavior is shown to take place in two hydrodynamical models of Pierce diode coupled unidirectionally.

Keywords: chaotic oscillators, phase synchronization, noise, intermittency of intermittencies

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Authors: Marie Guittonny-LarchevêQue

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In boreal Canada, industrial activities such as forestry, peat extraction and metal mines often occur nearby. At closure, mine waste storage facilities have to be reclaimed. On tailings storage facilities, tree plantations can achieve rapid restoration of forested landscapes. However, trees poorly grow in mine tailings and organic amendments like peat are required to improve tailings’ structure and nutrients. Canada is a well-known producer of horticultural quality peat, but some lower quality peats coming from areas adjacent to the reclaimed mines could allow successful revegetation. In particular, hemic peat coming from the bottom of peat-bogs is more decomposed than fibric peat and is less valued for horticulture. Moreover, forest peat is sometimes excavated and piled by the forest industry after cuttings to stimulate tree regeneration on the exposed mineral soil. The objective of this project was to compare the ability of peats of differing quality and origin to improve tailings structure, nutrients and tree development. A greenhouse experiment was conducted along one growing season in 2016 with a complete randomized block design combining 8 repetitions (blocks) x 2 tree species (Populus tremuloides and Pinus banksiana) x 6 substrates (tailings, commercial horticultural peat, and mixtures of tailings with commercial peat, forest peat, local fibric peat, or local hemic peat) x 2 fertilization levels (with or without mineral fertilization). The used tailings came from a gold mine and were low in sulfur and trace metals. The commercial peat had a slightly acidic pH (around 6) while other peats had a clearly acidic pH (around 3). However, mixing peat with slightly alkaline tailings resulted in a pH close to 7 whatever the tested peats. The macroporosity of mixtures was intermediate between the low values of tailings (4%) and the high values of commercial peat alone (34%). Seedling survival was lower on tailings for poplar compared to all other treatments, with or without fertilization. Survival and growth were similar among all treatments for pine. Fertilization had no impact on the maximal height and diameter of poplar seedlings but changed the relative performance of the substrates. When not fertilized, poplar seedlings grown in commercial peat were the highest and largest, and the smallest and slenderest in tailings, with intermediate values in mixtures. When fertilized, poplar seedlings grown in commercial peat were smaller and slender compared to all other substrates. However for this species, foliar, shoot, and root biomass production was the greatest in commercial peat and the lowest in tailings compared to all mixtures, whether fertilized or not. The mixture with local fibric peat provided the seedlings with the lowest foliar N concentrations compared to all other substrates whatever the species or the fertilization treatment. At the short-term, the performance of all the tested peats were close when mixed to tailings, showing that peats of lower quality could be valorized instead of using horticultural peat. These results demonstrate that intersectorial synergies in accordance with the principles of circular economy may be developed in boreal Canada between local industries around the reclamation of mine waste dumps.

Keywords: boreal trees, mine spoil, mine revegetation, intersectorial synergies

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Adel A. El-Zoghabi, Moustafa F. Ashry

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The popularity of the Internet and the availability of powerful computers and high-speed networks as low-cost commodity components are changing the way we use computers today. These technical opportunities have led to the possibility of using geographically distributed and multi-owner resources to solve large-scale problems in science, engineering, and commerce. Recent research on these topics has led to the emergence of a new paradigm known as Grid computing. To achieve the promising potentials of tremendous distributed resources, effective and efficient load balancing algorithms are fundamentally important. Unfortunately, load balancing algorithms in traditional parallel and distributed systems, which usually run on homogeneous and dedicated resources, cannot work well in the new circumstances. In this paper, the concept of a fast fractal transform in heterogeneous grid computing based on R-tree and the domain-range entropy is proposed to improve fault tolerance and load balancing algorithm by improve connectivity, communication delay, network bandwidth, resource availability, and resource unpredictability. A novel two-dimension figure of merit is suggested to describe the network effects on load balance and fault tolerance estimation. Fault tolerance is enhanced by adaptively decrease replication time and message cost while load balance is enhanced by adaptively decrease mean job response time. Experimental results show that the proposed method yields superior performance over other methods.

Keywords: Grid computing, load balancing, fault tolerance, R-tree, heterogeneous systems

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Authors: Yasuyo Makido, Vivek Shandas, David J. Sailor, M. Salim Ferwati

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Mitigating extreme urban heat is challenging in a desert climate such as Doha, Qatar, since outdoor daytime temperature area often too high for the human body to tolerate. Recent studies demonstrate that cities in arid and semiarid areas can exhibit ‘urban cool islands’ - urban areas that are cooler than the surrounding desert. However, the variation of temperatures as a result of the time of day and factors leading to temperature change remain at the question. To address these questions, we examined the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in Doha, Qatar by conducting multiple vehicle-base local temperature observations. We also employed three statistical approaches to model surface temperatures using relevant predictors: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) Regression Tree Analysis and (3) Random Forest for three time periods. Although the most important determinant factors varied by day and time, distance to the coast was the significant determinant at midday. A 70%/30% holdout method was used to create a testing dataset to validate the results through Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The Pearson’s analysis suggests that the Random Forest model more accurately predicts the surface temperatures than the other methods. We conclude with recommendations about the types of development patterns that show the greatest potential for reducing extreme heat in air climates.

Keywords: desert cities, tree-structure regression model, urban cool Island, vehicle temperature traverse

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Authors: Daniel Silander

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This article explores the EU Initiated European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) towards Ukraine. It also explores Russian geopolitics in the region. We argue that Ukraine is sandwiched between two regional powers in the EU and Russia. By analyzing EU democracy promotion towards Ukraine and neighbors, we assess a weak EU normative capacity. Instead of building a “ring of friends”, as argued by the EU Commission, in an enlarged democratic community, the EU has achieved poor democratic records in Ukraine which opened for a revival of Russia in the region and causes the international crisis over Crime of 2014.

Keywords: regional neighborhood policy, European Union, Russia, Ukraine, domestic elites

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Authors: Abraha Hatsey, Nesibu Yahya, Abeje Eshete

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Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church has a long tradition of conserving the Church vegetation and is an area treated as a refugee camp for many endangered indigenous tree species in Northern Ethiopia. Though around 36,000 churches exist in Ethiopia, only a few churches have been studied so far. Thus, this study assessed the land use land cover change of 3km buffer (1986-2018) and the woody species diversity and regeneration status of Tsimur St. Gebriel monastery in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia. For vegetation study, systematic sampling was used with 100m spacing between plots and between transects. Plot size was 20m*20m for the main plot and 2 subplots (5m*5m each) for the regeneration study. Tree height, diameter at breast height(DBH) and crown area were measured in the main plot for all trees with DBH ≥ 5cm. In the subplots, all seedlings and saplings were counted with DBH < 5cm. The data was analyzed on excel and Pass biodiversity software for diversity and evenness analysis. The major land cover classes identified include bare land, farmland, forest, shrubland and wetland. The extents of forest and shrubland were declined considerably due to bare land and agricultural land expansions within the 3km buffer, indicating an increasing pressure on the church forest. Regarding the vegetation status, A total of 19 species belonging to 13 families were recorded in the monastery. The diversity (H’) and evenness recorded were 2.4 and 0.5, respectively. The tree density (DBH ≥ 5cm) was 336/ha and a crown cover of 65%. Olea europaea was the dominant (6.4m2/ha out of 10.5m2 total basal area) and a frequent species (100%) with good regeneration in the monastery. The rest of the species are less frequent and are mostly confined to water sources with good site conditions. Juniperus procera (overharvested) and the other indigenous species were with few trees left and with no/very poor regeneration status. The species having poor density, frequency and regeneration (Junperus procera, Nuxia congesta Fersen and Jasminium abyssinica) need prior conservation and enrichment planting. The indigenous species could also serve as a potential seed source for the reproduction and restoration of nearby degraded landscapes. The buffer study also demonstrated expansion of agriculture and bare land, which could be a threat to the forest of the isolated monastery. Hence, restoring the buffer zone is the only guarantee for the healthy existence of the church forest.

Keywords: church forests, regeneration, land use change, vegetation status

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Authors: Jing Jiang, Wenhuan XU, Lei Zhang, Shiyi Zhang, Tongli Wang

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Climate data quality significantly affects the reliability of ecological modeling. In the Asia Pacific (AP) region, low-quality climate data hinders ecological modeling. ClimateAP, a software developed in 2017, generates high-quality climate data for the AP region, benefiting researchers in forestry and agriculture. However, its adoption remains limited. This study aims to confirm the validity of biologically relevant variable data generated by ClimateAP during the normal climate period through comparison with the currently available gridded data. Climate data from 2,366 weather stations were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of ClimateAP in comparison with the commonly used gridded data from WorldClim1.4. Univariate regressions were applied to 48 monthly biologically relevant variables, and the relationship between the observational data and the predictions made by ClimateAP and WorldClim was evaluated using Adjusted R-Squared and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Locations were categorized into mountainous and flat landforms, considering elevation, slope, ruggedness, and Topographic Position Index. Univariate regressions were then applied to all biologically relevant variables for each landform category. Random Forest (RF) models were implemented for the climatic niche modeling of Cunninghamia lanceolata. A comparative analysis of the prediction accuracies of RF models constructed with distinct climate data sources was conducted to evaluate their relative effectiveness. Biologically relevant variables were obtained from three unpublished Chinese meteorological datasets. ClimateAPv3.0 and WorldClim predictions were obtained from weather station coordinates and WorldClim1.4 rasters, respectively, for the normal climate period of 1961-1990. Occurrence data for Cunninghamia lanceolata came from integrated biodiversity databases with 3,745 unique points. ClimateAP explains a minimum of 94.74%, 97.77%, 96.89%, and 94.40% of monthly maximum, minimum, average temperature, and precipitation variances, respectively. It outperforms WorldClim in 37 biologically relevant variables with lower RMSE values. ClimateAP achieves higher R-squared values for the 12 monthly minimum temperature variables and consistently higher Adjusted R-squared values across all landforms for precipitation. ClimateAP's temperature data yields lower Adjusted R-squared values than gridded data in high-elevation, rugged, and mountainous areas but achieves higher values in mid-slope drainages, plains, open slopes, and upper slopes. Using ClimateAP improves the prediction accuracy of tree occurrence from 77.90% to 82.77%. The biologically relevant climate data produced by ClimateAP is validated based on evaluations using observations from weather stations. The use of ClimateAP leads to an improvement in data quality, especially in non-mountainous regions. The results also suggest that using biologically relevant variables generated by ClimateAP can slightly enhance climatic niche modeling for tree species, offering a better understanding of tree species adaptation and resilience compared to using gridded data.

Keywords: climate data validation, data quality, Asia pacific climate, climatic niche modeling, random forest models, tree species

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Authors: Hanadi Mohamed Shawgi Gamal, Ashraf Mohamed Ahmed Abdalla

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Sudan is endowed by a great diversity of tree species; nevertheless, the utilization of wood resources has traditionally concentrated on a few number of species. With the great variation in the climatic zones of Sudan, great variations are expected in the anatomical properties between and within species. This variation needs to be fully explored in order to suggest the best uses for the species. Modern research on wood has substantiated that the climatic condition where the species grow has significant effect on wood properties. Understanding the extent of variability of wood is important because the uses for each kind of wood are related to its characteristics; furthermore, the suitability or quality of wood for a particular purpose is determined by the variability of one or more of these characteristics. The present study demonstrates the effect of rainfall zones in some anatomical properties of Acacia seyal var. seyal growing in Sudan. For this purpose, twenty healthy trees were collected randomly from two zones (ten trees per zone). One zone with relatively low rainfall (273mm annually) which represented by North Kordofan state and White Nile state and the second with relatively high rainfall (701 mm annually) represented by Blue Nile state and South Kordofan state. From each sampled tree, a stem disc (3 cm thick) was cut at 10% from stem height. One radius was obtained in central stem dices. Two representative samples were taken from each disc, one at 10% distance from pith to bark, the second at 90% in order to represent the juvenile and mature wood. The investigated anatomical properties were fibers length, fibers and vessels diameter, lumen diameter, and wall thickness as well as cell proportions. The result of the current study reveals significant differences between zones in mature wood vessels diameter and wall thickness, as well as juvenile wood vessels, wall thickness. The higher values were detected in the drier zone. Significant differences were also observed in juvenile wood fiber length, diameter as well as wall thickness. Contrary to vessels diameter and wall thickness, the fiber length, diameter as well as wall thickness were decreased in the drier zone. No significant differences have been detected in cell proportions of juvenile and mature wood. The significant differences in some fiber and vessels dimension lead to expect significant differences in wood density. From these results, Acacia seyal var. seyal seems to be well adapted with the change in rainfall and may survive in any rainfall zone.

Keywords: Acacia seyal var. seyal, anatomical properties, rainfall zones, variation

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

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Authors: Bliss Singhal

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Machine learning (ML) is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI) where computers analyze data and find patterns in the data. The study focuses on the detection of metastatic cancer using ML. Metastatic cancer is the stage where cancer has spread to other parts of the body and is the cause of approximately 90% of cancer-related deaths. Normally, pathologists spend hours each day to manually classifying whether tumors are benign or malignant. This tedious task contributes to mislabeling metastasis being over 60% of the time and emphasizes the importance of being aware of human error and other inefficiencies. ML is a good candidate to improve the correct identification of metastatic cancer, saving thousands of lives and can also improve the speed and efficiency of the process, thereby taking fewer resources and time. So far, the deep learning methodology of AI has been used in research to detect cancer. This study is a novel approach to determining the potential of using preprocessing algorithms combined with classification algorithms in detecting metastatic cancer. The study used two preprocessing algorithms: principal component analysis (PCA) and the genetic algorithm, to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and then used three classification algorithms: logistic regression, decision tree classifier, and k-nearest neighbors to detect metastatic cancer in the pathology scans. The highest accuracy of 71.14% was produced by the ML pipeline comprising of PCA, the genetic algorithm, and the k-nearest neighbor algorithm, suggesting that preprocessing and classification algorithms have great potential for detecting metastatic cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, principal component analysis, genetic algorithm, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree classifier, logistic regression

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Authors: Jeffrey A. Amelse

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Many corporations aspire to become Net Zero Carbon Carbon Dioxide by 2035-2050. This paper examines what it will take to achieve those goals. Achieving Net Zero CO₂ requires an understanding of where energy is produced and consumed, the magnitude of CO₂ generation, and proper understanding of the Carbon Cycle. The latter leads to the distinction between CO₂ and biomass carbon sequestration. Short reviews are provided for prior technologies proposed for reducing CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels or substitution by renewable energy, to focus on their limitations and to show that none offer a complete solution. Of these, CO₂ sequestration is poised to have the largest impact. It will just cost money, scale-up is a huge challenge, and it will not be a complete solution. CO₂ sequestration is still in the demonstration and semi-commercial scale. Transportation accounts for only about 30% of total U.S. energy demand, and renewables account for only a small fraction of that sector. Yet, bioethanol production consumes 40% of U.S. corn crop, and biodiesel consumes 30% of U.S. soybeans. It is unrealistic to believe that biofuels can completely displace fossil fuels in the transportation market. Bioethanol is traced through its Carbon Cycle and shown to be both energy inefficient and inefficient use of biomass carbon. Both biofuels and CO₂ sequestration reduce future CO₂ emissions from continued use of fossil fuels. They will not remove CO₂ already in the atmosphere. Planting more trees has been proposed as a way to reduce atmospheric CO₂. Trees are a temporary solution. When they complete their Carbon Cycle, they die and release their carbon as CO₂ to the atmosphere. Thus, planting more trees is just 'kicking the can down the road.' The only way to permanently remove CO₂ already in the atmosphere is to break the Carbon Cycle by growing biomass from atmospheric CO₂ and sequestering biomass carbon. Sequestering tree leaves is proposed as a solution. Unlike wood, leaves have a short Carbon Cycle time constant. They renew and decompose every year. Allometric equations from the USDA indicate that theoretically, sequestrating only a fraction of the world’s tree leaves can get the world to Net Zero CO₂ without disturbing the underlying forests. How can tree leaves be permanently sequestered? It may be as simple as rethinking how landfills are designed to discourage instead of encouraging decomposition. In traditional landfills, municipal waste undergoes rapid initial aerobic decomposition to CO₂, followed by slow anaerobic decomposition to methane and CO₂. The latter can take hundreds to thousands of years. The first step in anaerobic decomposition is hydrolysis of cellulose to release sugars, which those who have worked on cellulosic ethanol know is challenging for a number of reasons. The key to permanent leaf sequestration may be keeping the landfills dry and exploiting known inhibitors for anaerobic bacteria.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, net zero, sequestration, biomass, leaves

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Authors: Arlene López-Sampson, Tony Page, Betsy Jackes

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Aquilaria genus produces a highly valuable fragrant oleoresin known as agarwood. Agarwood forms in a few trees in the wild as a response to injure or pathogen attack. The resin is used in perfume and incense industry and medicine. Cultivation of Aquilaria species as a sustainable source of the resin is now a common strategy. Physiological traits are frequently used as a proxy of crop and tree productivity. Aquilaria species growing in Queensland, Australia were studied to investigate relationship between leaf-productivity traits with tree growth. Specifically, 28 trees, representing 12 plus trees and 16 trees from yield plots, were selected to conduct carbon isotope analysis (δ13C) and monitor six leaf attributes. Trees were grouped on four diametric classes (diameter at 150 mm above ground level) ensuring the variability in growth of the whole population was sampled. Model averaging technique based on the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) was computed to identify whether leaf traits could assist in diameter prediction. Carbon isotope values were correlated with height classes and leaf traits to determine any relationship. In average four leaves per shoot were recorded. Approximately one new leaf per week is produced by a shoot. Rate of leaf expansion was estimated in 1.45 mm day-1. There were no statistical differences between diametric classes and leaf expansion rate and number of new leaves per week (p > 0.05). Range of δ13C values in leaves of Aquilaria species was from -25.5 ‰ to -31 ‰ with an average of -28.4 ‰ (± 1.5 ‰). Only 39% of the variability in height can be explained by δ13C in leaf. Leaf δ13C and nitrogen content values were positively correlated. This relationship implies that leaves with higher photosynthetic capacities also had lower intercellular carbon dioxide concentrations (ci/ca) and less depleted values of 13C. Most of the predictor variables have a weak correlation with diameter (D). However, analysis of the 95% confidence of best-ranked regression models indicated that the predictors that could likely explain growth in Aquilaria species are petiole length (PeLen), values of δ13C (true13C) and δ15N (true15N), leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA) and number of new leaf produced per week (NL.week). The model constructed with PeLen, true13C, true15N, LA, SLA and NL.week could explain 45% (R2 0.4573) of the variability in D. The leaf traits studied gave a better understanding of the leaf attributes that could assist in the selection of high-productivity trees in Aquilaria.

Keywords: 13C, petiole length, specific leaf area, tree growth

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Authors: Lee Ping Ang, Salvatore Tomasello, Jun Wen, Marc S. Appelhans

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With about 225 species, Zanthoxylum L. is the second most species rich genus in Rutaceae. It is the only genus with a pantropical distribution. Economically, it is used in several Asian countries as traditional medicine and spice. In the past Zanthoxylum was divided into two genera, the temperate Zanthoxylum sensu strictu (s.s.) and the (sub)tropical Fagara, due to the large differences in flower morphology: heterochlamydeous in Fagara and homochlamydeous in Zanthoxylum s.s.. This genus is much under studied and previous phylogenetic studies using Sanger sequencing did not resolve the relationships sufficiently. In this study, we use Hybrid Capture with a specially designed bait set for Zanthoxylum to sequence 347 putatively single-copy genes. The taxon sampling has been largely improved as compared to previous studies and the preliminary results will be based on 371 specimens representing 133 species from all continents and major island groups. Our preliminary results reveal similar tree topology as the previous studies while providing more details to the backbone of the phylogeny. The phylogenetic tree consists of four main clades: A) African/Malagasy clade, B) Z. asiaticum clade - a clade consisting widespread species occurring in (sub)tropical Asia and Africa as well as Madagascar, C) Asian/Pacific clade and D) American clade, which also includes the temperate Asian species. The merging of Fagara and Zanthoxylum is supported by our results and the homochlamydeous flowers of Zanthoxylum s.s. are likely derived from heterochlamydeous flowers. Several of the morphologically defined sections within Zanthoxylum are not monophyletic. The study dissemination will (1) introduce the framework of this project; (2) present preliminary results and (3) the ongoing progress of the study.

Keywords: Zanthoxylum, phylogenomic, hybrid capture, pantropical

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Jahede Tekeykhah, Seyed Mohsen Hossini, Gholamali Jalali

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Industrial and traffic activities cause large amounts of heavy metals enter into the atmosphere and the use of plant species can be effective in assessing and reducing air pollution by metals. This study aimed to investigate the adsorption level of heavy metals in leaves of Fraxinus rotundifolia, Robinia, Platanus orientalis, Platycladus orientalis and Pinus eldarica trees in Abidar forest park. For this purpose, samples leaves of the trees were prepared from the contaminated and control areas in each region in 3 stations with 3 replicates in mid-August and finally 90 samples were sent to the laboratory. Then, the concentrations of heavy metals were measured by graphite furnace. To do this, factorial experiment based on a completely randomized design with two factors of location on two levels (contaminated area and control area) and the factor of species on five levels (Fraxinus rotundifolia, Robinia, Platanus orientalis, Platycladus orientalis and Pinus eldarica) with three replications was used. The analysis of collected data was performed by SPSS software and Duncan's multiple range test was used to compare the means. The results showed that the accumulation of all metals in the leaves of most species in the infected area with a significant difference at 95% level was higher than the control area. In the contaminated area, with a significant difference at 5% level, the highest accumulations of metals were observed as the following: lead, cadmium, zinc and manganese in Platanus orientalis, nickel in Fraxinus rotundifolia and copper in Platycladus orientalis.

Keywords: airborne, tree species, heavy metals, absorption, Abidar Forest Park

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Authors: Shaleni Bajpai, V. Niveditha

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A fashion accessory is a product which used to give secondary way to the wearer’s outfit. The term came into use in the 19th century and was specifically chosen to complement the wearer’s look. The aim of project was to introduce the unconventional materials for statement jewellery. The materials used for statement jewellery were waste Cd’s, and scrap fabric. These materials were amalgamated with the traditional raw materials such as beads, sequins, charms and chains to form unique jewellery sets. The sets were divided into two categories based on the type of raw material used i.e. Category 1: Clef-Cd Jewellery, Category 2: Crumb-Fabric Jewellery. Each Jewellery set consisted of a necklace, a pair of earrings, a ring and a bracelet.

Keywords: statement jewellery, unconventional, crumb fabric, Cd’s

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Raoudane Bouziyan, Kawser Mohammad Tawhid

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Microstrip antennas are low in profile, light in weight, conformable in structure and are now developed for many applications. The main difficulty of the microstrip antenna is its narrow bandwidth. Several modern applications like satellite communications, remote sensing, and multi-function radar systems will find it useful if there is dual-band antenna operating from a single aperture. Some applications require covering both transmitting and receiving frequency bands which are spaced apart. Providing multiple antennas to handle multiple frequencies and polarizations becomes especially difficult if the available space is limited as with airborne platforms and submarine periscopes. Dual band operation can be realized from a single feed using slot loaded or stacked microstrip antenna or two separately fed antennas sharing a common aperture. The former design, when used in arrays, has certain limitations like complicated beam forming or diplexing network and difficulty to realize good radiation patterns at both the bands. The second technique provides more flexibility with separate feed system as beams in each frequency band can be controlled independently. Another desirable feature of a dual band antenna is easy adjustability of upper and lower frequency bands. This thesis presents investigation of a new dual-band antenna, which is a hybrid of microstrip and waveguide radiating elements. The low band radiator is a Shorted Annular Ring (SAR) microstrip antenna and the high band radiator is an aperture antenna. The hybrid antenna is realized by forming a waveguide radiator in the shorted region of the SAR microstrip antenna. It is shown that the upper to lower frequency ratio can be controlled by the proper choice of various dimensions and dielectric material. Operation in both linear and circular polarization is possible in either band. Moreover, both broadside and conical beams can be generated in either band from this antenna element. Finite Element Method based software, HFSS and Method of Moments based software, FEKO were employed to perform parametric studies of the proposed dual-band antenna. The antenna was not tested physically. Therefore, in most cases, both HFSS and FEKO were employed to corroborate the simulation results.

Keywords: FEKO, HFSS, dual band, shorted annular ring patch

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Fanny Soulard

Abstract:

Today work environment is more multicultural than ever: spatial limits have been blown out, encouraging people and ideas mobility all around the globe. Indeed, opportunities to design with culturally diverse team workers, clients, or end-users, have become within everyone's reach. We enjoy traveling to discover other civilizations, but when it comes to business, we often take for granted that our own work methodology will be generic enough to federate each party and cover the project needs. This paper aims to explore why, by skipping cultural awareness, we often create misunderstandings, frustration, and even counterproductive design. Tree lighting projects successively developed by a French lighting studio, a Vietnamese lighting studio, and an Australian Engineering company will be assessed from their concept stage to completion. All these study cases are based in Vietnam, where the construction market is equally led by local and international consultants. Core criteria such as lighting standard reference, service scope, communication tools, internal team organization, delivery package content, key priorities, and client relationship will help to spot and list when and how cultural diversity has impacted the design output and effectiveness. On the second hand, we will demonstrate through the same selected projects how intercultural intelligence tools and mindset can not only respond positively to previous situations and avoid major clashes but also turn cultural differences into a key added value to generate significant benefits for individuals, teams, and companies. By understanding the major importance of including a cultural factor within any design, intercultural intelligence will quickly turn out as a “must have” skill to be developed and acquired by any designer.

Keywords: intercultural intelligence, lighting design, work methodology, multicultural diversity

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Krzysztof Buczak, Sonia Lachowska, Pawel Kucharski, Agnieszka Antonczyk

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Tiletamine - zolazepam combination is increasingly used in veterinary anaesthesiology in wild animals, including snakes. The available literature shows a lack of information about anesthesia in this mixture in ovoviviparous snakes. The studies show the possibility of using the combination at a dose of 20 mg/kg or more for snake immobilization. This paper presents an anesthetic protocol with the use of a combination of tiletamine - zolazepam at the dose of 10 mg/kg intramuscularly and maintenance with inhalant anesthesia with isoflurane in pure oxygen. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the anesthetic protocol to proceed with coeliotomy in Amazon Tree Boa. The patient was a five years old bicolor female Amazon Tree Boa (Corallus hortulanus) with dystocia. The clinical examination reveals significant emaciation (bodyweight 520g), high degree of dehydration, heart rate (HR = 60 / min), pale mucous membranes and poor reactivity. Meloxicam (1 mg/kg) and tramadol (10 mg/kg) were administered subcutaneously and the patient was placed in an incubator with access to fresh oxygen. Four hours later, the combination of tiletamine - zolazepam (10 mg/kg) was administered intramuscularly for induction of anesthesia. The snake was intubated and connected to inhalant anesthesia equipment. For maintenance, the anesthesia isoflurane in pure oxygen was used due to apnea, which occurs 30 minutes after the induction semi-closed system was attached and the ventilator was turned on (PCV system, four breaths per minute, 8 cm of H2O). Cardiopulmonary parameters (HR, RR, SPO2, ETCO2, ETISO) were assessed throughout the procedure. During the entire procedure, the operating room was heated to a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the hose was placed on a heating mat, which maintained a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. For 15 minutes after induction, the loss of muscle tone was observed from the head to the tail. Induction of general anesthesia was scored as good because of the possibility of intubation. During the whole procedure, the heart rate was at the rate of 58 beats per minute (bpm). Ventilation parameters were stable throughout the procedure. The recovery period lasts for about 4 hours after the end of general anesthesia. The muscle tension returned from tail to head. The snake started to breathe spontaneously within 1,5 hours after the end of general anesthesia. The protocol of general anesthesia with the combination of tiletamine- zolazepam with a dose of 10 mg/kg is useful for proceeding with the emergency coeliotomy in maintenance with isoflurane in oxygen. Further study about the impact of the combination of tiletamine- zolazepam for the recovery period is needed.

Keywords: anesthesia, corallus hortulanus, ovoviparous, snake, tiletamine, zolazepam

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Juang R. Matangaran, Qi Adlan

Abstract:

Industrial plantation forest in Indonesia was developed in 1983, and since then, several companies have been successfully planted a total area of concessionaire approximately 10 million hectares. Currently, these plantation forests have their annual harvesting period. In the timber harvesting process, amount part of the trees generally become logging residue. Tree parts such as branches, twigs, defected stem and leaves are unused section of tree on the ground after timber harvesting. The use of heavy machines in timber harvesting area has caused damage to the forest soil. The negative impact of such machines includes loss of topsoil, soil erosion, and soil compaction. Forest soil compaction caused reduction of forest water infiltration, increase runoff and causes difficulty for root penetration. In this study, we used logging residue as soil covers on the passages passed by skidding machines in order to observe the reduction soil compaction. Bulk density of soil was measured and analyzed after several times of skidding machines passage on skid trail. The objective of the research was to analyze the effect of logging residue on reducing soil compaction. The research was taken place at one of the industrial plantation forest area of South Sumatra Indonesia. The result of the study showed that percentage increase of soil compaction bare soil was larger than soil surface covered by logging residue. The maximum soil compaction occurred after 4 to 5 passes on soil without logging residue or bare soil and after 7 to 8 passes on soil cover by logging residue. The use of logging residue coverings could reduce soil compaction from 45% to 60%. The logging residue was effective in decreasing soil disturbance of timber harvesting at the plantation forest area.

Keywords: bulk density, logging residue, plantation forest, soil compaction, timber harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Nacira Mecheri, N. Boussid

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A new chemical mechanism designed to study the process of forming the first aromatic ring (benzene) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from a flame of acetylene (C2H2) has been developed. The mechanism developed, contains 50 chemical species involved in 268 reversible elementary reactions. The comparison between the results from modelling and experimental measurements allowed us to test the validity of the postulated mechanism in specific experimental conditions. Kinetic analysis of the flame by calculating the maximum rates for each elementary reaction, allowed us to identify key reactions pathways of consumption and formation of main precursors of soot.

Keywords: benzene, PAH, acetylene, modeling, flame, soot

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Shiwani Bhatnagar, K. K. Srivastava, Sangeeta Singh, Ameen Ullah Khan, Bundesh Kumar, Lokendra Singh Rathore

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From the instigation of the world medicinal plants are treated as part and parcel of human society to fight against diseases. Azadirachta indica (Neem) a herbal plant has been used as an Indian traditional medicine since ages and its products are acknowledged to solve agricultural, forestry and public health related problems, owing to its beneficial medicinal properties. Each part of the neem tree is known for its medicinal property. Bark & leaf extracts of neem have been used to control leprosy, respiratory disorders, constipation and also as blood purifier and a general health tonic. Neem is still regarded as ' rural community dispensary' in India or a tree for solving medical problems. Use of Neem as pesticides for the management of insect pest of agriculture crops and forestry has been seen as a shift in the use of synthetic pesticides to ecofriendly botanicals. Neem oil and seed extracts possess germicidal and anti-bacterial properties which when sprayed on the plant helps in protecting them from foliage pests. Azadirachtin, the main active ingredient found in neem tree, acts as an insect repellent and antifeedant. However the young plants are susceptible to many insect pest and foliar diseases. Recently, in the avenue plantation, planted by Arid Forest Research Institute, Jodhpur, around the premises of IIT Jodhpur, two years old neem plants were found to be severely infested with tip borer Laspeyresia koenigana (Family: Eucosmidae). The adult moth of L. koenigana lays eggs on the tender shoots and the young larvae tunnel into the shoot and feed inside. A small pinhole can be seen at the entrance point, from where the larva enters in to the stem. The severely attached apical shoots exhibit profuse gum exudation resulting in development of a callus structure. The internal feeding causes the stem to wilt and the leaves to dry up from the tips resulting in growth retardation. Alternaria Leaf spot and blight symptoms were also recorded on these neem plants. For the management of tip borer and Alternaria Leaf spot, foliar spray of monocrotophos @0.05% and Dithane M-45 @ 0.15% and powermin @ 2ml/lit were found efficient in managing the insect pest and foliar disease problem. No Further incidence of pest/diseases was noticed.

Keywords: azadirachta indica, alternaria leaf spot, laspeyresia koenigana, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: S. Ahmad, M. Rizwan, B. Ayub, S. Mehmood, P. Akhtar

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This experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of supplementation of pure herbal blend on growth performance of boilers. One hundred and twenty birds were randomly distributed into 4 experimental units of 3 replicates (10 birds/replicate) as: negative control (basal diet), positive control (Lincomycin at the rate of 5g/bag), pure herbal blend at the rate of 150g/bag and pure herbal blend at the rate of 300g/bag. The data regarding weekly feed intake, body weight gain and feed conversion ratio were recorded, and fecal samples were collected at the end of starter and finisher phase for nutrient digestibility trial. The results of feed intake showed significant (P < 0.05) results in 1st (305g), 2nd (696.88g), 3rd (1046.9g) and 4th (1173.2g) week and feed conversion ratio indicated significant (P < 0.05) variations in 1st (2.54) and 4th (2.28) week of age. Also, both starter and finisher phase indicated significant (P < 0.05) differences among all treatment groups in feed intake (2023.4g) and (2302.6g) respectively. The statistical analysis indicated significant (P < 0.05) results in crop filling percentage (86.6%) after 2 hours of first feed supplementation. In case of nutrient digestibility trial, results showed significant (P < 0.05) values of crude protein and crude fat in starter phase as 69.65% and 56.62% respectively, and 69.57% and 48.55% respectively, in finisher phase. Based on overall results, it was concluded that the dietary inclusion of pure herbal blend containing neem tree leaves powder, garlic powder, ginger powder and turmeric powder increase the production performance of broilers.

Keywords: neem tree leave, garlic, ginger, herbal blend, broiler

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Satya P. Dubey, Hrushikesh A Abhyankar, Veronica Marchante, James L. Brighton, Björn Bergmann

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Aims: To develop a mathematical model that simulates the ROP of PLA taking into account the effect of alternative energy to be implemented in a continuous reactive extrusion production process of PLA. Introduction: The production of large amount of waste is one of the major challenges at the present time, and polymers represent 70% of global waste. PLA has emerged as a promising polymer as it is compostable, biodegradable thermoplastic polymer made from renewable sources. However, the main limitation for the application of PLA is the traces of toxic metal catalyst in the final product. Thus, a safe and efficient production process needs to be developed to avoid the potential hazards and toxicity. It has been found that alternative energy sources (LASER, ultrasounds, microwaves) could be a prominent option to facilitate the ROP of PLA via continuous reactive extrusion. This process may result in complete extraction of the metal catalysts and facilitate less active organic catalysts. Methodology: Initial investigation were performed using the data available in literature for the reaction mechanism of ROP of PLA based on conventional metal catalyst stannous octoate. A mathematical model has been developed by considering significant parameters such as different initial concentration ratio of catalyst, co-catalyst and impurity. Effects of temperature variation and alternative energies have been implemented in the model. Results: The validation of the mathematical model has been made by using data from literature as well as actual experiments. Validation of the model including alternative energies is in progress based on experimental data for partners of the InnoREX project consortium. Conclusion: The model developed reproduces accurately the polymerisation reaction when applying alternative energy. Alternative energies have a great positive effect to increase the conversion and molecular weight of the PLA. This model could be very useful tool to complement Ludovic® software to predict the large scale production process when using reactive extrusion.

Keywords: polymer, poly-lactic acid (PLA), ring opening polymerization (ROP), metal-catalyst, bio-degradable, renewable source, alternative energy (AE)

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 132