Search results for: intrinsic rate of population increase

Authors: Pebri Nurhayati, Rozanah Ahlam Fadiyah

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In the development of the city often use rural areas that can not be separated from the change in land use that lead to the degradation of urban green space in the city fringe. In the long run, the degradation of green open space this can impact on the decline of ecological, psychological and public health. Therefore, this research aims to (1) determine the relationship between the parameters of the degradation rate of urban development with green space, (2) develop a spatial model of the impact of urban development on the degradation of green open space with remote sensing techniques and Geographical Information Systems in an integrated manner. This research is a descriptive research with data collection techniques of observation and secondary data . In the data analysis, to interpret the direction of urban development and degradation of green open space is required in 2005-2010 ASTER image with NDVI. Of interpretation will generate two maps, namely maps and map development built land degradation green open space. Secondary data related to the rate of population growth, the level of accessibility, and the main activities of each city map is processed into a population growth rate, the level of accessibility maps, and map the main activities of the town. Each map is used as a parameter to map the degradation of green space and analyzed by non-parametric statistical analysis using Crosstab thus obtained value of C (coefficient contingency). C values were then compared with the Cmaximum to determine the relationship. From this research will be obtained in the form of modeling spatial map of the City Development Impact Degradation Green Space in Urban Fringe eastern city of Yogyakarta 2005-2010. In addition, this research also generate statistical analysis of the test results of each parameter to the degradation of green open space in the Urban Fringe eastern city of Yogyakarta 2005-2010.

Keywords: spatial analysis, urban development, degradation of green space, urban fringe

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Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Alam Mondal, Amit Kumar

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Market penetration of high energy efficiency technologies has key impacts on energy consumption and GHG mitigation. Also, it will be useful to manage the policies formulated by public or private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets. Energy intensity in residential sector of Alberta was 148.8 GJ per household in 2012 which is 39% more than the average of Canada 106.6 GJ, it was the highest amount among the provinces on per household energy consumption. Energy intensity by appliances of Alberta was 15.3 GJ per household in 2012 which is 14% higher than average value of other provinces and territories in energy demand intensity by appliances in Canada. In this research, a framework has been developed to analyze the market penetration and market share of high energy efficiency technologies in residential sector. The overall methodology was based on development of data-intensive models’ estimation of the market penetration of the appliances in the residential sector over a time period. The developed models were a function of a number of macroeconomic and technical parameters. Developed mathematical equations were developed based on twenty-two years of historical data (1990-2011). The models were analyzed through a series of statistical tests. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were estimated based on the related variables such as capital and operating costs, discount rate, appliance’s life time, annual interest rate, incentives and maximum achievable efficiency in the period of 2015 to 2050. Results show that the market penetration of refrigerators is higher than that of other appliances. The stocks of refrigerators per household are anticipated to increase from 1.28 in 2012 to 1.314 and 1.328 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Modelling results show that the market penetration rate of stand-alone freezers will decrease between 2012 and 2050. Freezer stock per household will decline from 0.634 in 2012 to 0.556 and 0.515 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The stock of dishwashers per household is expected to increase from 0.761 in 2012 to 0.865 and 0.960 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The increase in the market penetration rate of clothes washers and clothes dryers is nearly parallel. The stock of clothes washers and clothes dryers per household is expected to rise from 0.893 and 0.979 in 2012 to 0.960 and 1.0 in 2050, respectively. This proposed presentation will include detailed discussion on the modelling methodology and results.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, energy star, market penetration, residential sector

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Authors: Aleena Rena Onozuka, Patompong Satapornpong

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Introduction: In a Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA)’s immune response, HLA alleles (HLA class I and class II) play a crucial role in fighting against pathogens. HLA-B*15:01 allele had a significant association with asymptomatic COVID-19 infection (p-value = 5.67 x 10-5 ; OR = 2.40 and 95% CI = 1.54 - 3.64). There was also a notable linkage between HLA-B*51:01 allele and critically ill patients with COVID-19 (p-value = 0.007 and OR = 3.38). This study has described the distribution of HLA marker alleles in Thais and sub-groups. Objective: We want to investigate the prevalence of HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles in the Thai population. Materials and Methods: 200 healthy Thai population were included in this study from the College of Pharmacy, Rangsit University. HLA-B alleles were genotyped using the sequence-specific oligonucleotides process (PCR-SSOs). Results: We found out that HLA-B*46:01 (12.00%), HLA-B*15:02 (9.25%), HLA-B*40:01 (6.50%), HLA-B*13:01 (6.25%), and HLA-B* 38:02 (5.50%) alleles were more common than other alleles in Thai population. HLA-B*46:01 and HLA-B*15:02 were the most common allele found across four regions. Moreover, the frequency of HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles were similarly distributed in Thai population (0.50, 5.25 %) and (p-value > 0.05), respectively. The frequencies of HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles were not significantly different from other populations compared to the Thai population. Conclusions: We can screen for HLA-B*15:01 and HLA-B*51:01 alleles to determine the symptoms of COVID-19 since they are universal HLA-B markers. Importantly, the database of HLA markers indicates the association between HLA frequency and populations. However, we need further research on larger numbers of COVID-19 patients and in different populations.

Keywords: HLA-B*15:01, HLA-B*51:01, COVID-19, HLA-B alleles

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Authors: Hong-Ming Chen

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This work considers the resolution of the Hull and White interest rate model with the jump process. A deterministic process is adopted to model the random behavior of interest rate variation as deterministic perturbations, which is depending on the time t. The Brownian motion and jumps uncertainty are denoted as the integral functions piecewise constant function w(t) and point function θ(t). It shows that the interest rate function and the yield function of the Hull and White interest rate model with jump process can be obtained by solving a nonlinear semi-infinite programming problem. A relaxed cutting plane algorithm is then proposed for solving the resulting optimization problem. The method is calibrated for the U.S. treasury securities at 3-month data and is used to analyze several effects on interest rate prices, including interest rate variability, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates. The numerical results illustrate that our approach essentially generates the yield functions with minimal fitting errors and small oscillation.

Keywords: optimization, interest rate model, jump process, deterministic

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Authors: J. R. Lee, E. V. Lau

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Ionic wind is developed when high voltage is supplied to an anode and a grounded cathode in a gaseous medium. This paper studies the ionic wind profile with different anode configurations, the relationship between electrode gap against the voltage supplied and finally a comparison of the heat transfer coefficient of ionic wind over a horizontal flat plate against a conventional fan experimentally. It is observed that increase in the distance between electrodes decreases at a rate of 1-e-0.0206x as the voltage supply is increased until a distance of 3.1536cm. It is also observed that the wind speed produced by ionic wind is stronger, 2.7ms-1 at 2W compared to conventional fan, 2.5ms-1 at 2W but the wind produced decays at a fast exponential rate and is more localized as compared to conventional fan wind that decays at a slower exponential rate and is less localized. Next, it is found out that the ionic wind profile is the same regardless of the position of the anode relative to the cathode. Lastly, it is discovered that ionic wind produced a heat transfer coefficient that is almost 1.6 times higher compared to a conventional fan with Nusselt number reaching 164 compared to 102 for conventional fan.

Keywords: conventional fan, heat transfer, ionic wind, wind profile

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Authors: Taha Anjamrooz, Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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Selection between the available projects in bidding processes for the contractor is one of the essential areas to concentrate on. It is important for the contractor to choose the right projects within its portfolio during the tendering stage based on certain criteria. It should align the bidding process with its origination strategies and goals as a screening process to have the right portfolio pool to start with. Secondly, it should set the proper framework and use a suitable technique in order to optimize its selection process for concertation purpose and higher efforts during the tender stage with goals of success and winning. In this research paper, a two steps framework proposed to increase the efficiency of the contractor’s bidding process and the winning chance of getting the new projects awarded. In this framework, initially, all the projects pass through the first stage screening process, in which the portfolio basket will be evaluated and adjusted in accordance with the organization strategies to the reduced version of the portfolio pool, which is in line with organization activities. In the second stage, the contractor uses linear programming to optimize the portfolio pool based on available resources such as manpower, light equipment, heavy equipment, financial capability, return on investment, and success rate of winning the bid. Therefore, this optimization model will assist the contractor in utilizing its internal resource to its maximum and increase its winning chance for the new project considering past experience with clients, built-relation between two parties, and complexity in the exertion of the projects. The objective of this research will be to increase the contractor's winning chance in the bidding process based on the success rate and expected return on investment.

Keywords: bidding process, internal resources, optimization, contracting portfolio management

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Authors: V. Srinivasan, S. M. Sriram Nandan

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Today in the modern world the most important problem faced by the mankind is increasing the pollution in a very high rate. It affects the ecosystem of the environment and also aids to increase the greenhouse effect. The exhaust gases from the automobile is the major cause of a pollution. Automobiles have increased to a large number which has increased the pollution of our world to an alarming rate. There are two methods of controlling the pollution namely, pre-pollution control method and post-pollution control method. This paper is based on controlling the emission by post-pollution control method. The ratio of surface area of nanoparticles to the volume of the nanoparticles is inversely proportional to the radius of the nanoparticles. So decreasing the radius, this ratio is leading resulting in an increased rate of reaction and thus the concentration of the pollution is decreased. To achieve this objective, use of cobalt-graphene element is proposed. The proposed method is mainly to decrease the cost of platinum as it is expensive. This has a longer life than the platinum-based catalysts.

Keywords: automobile emissions, catalytic converter, cobalt-graphene, replacement of platinum

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Authors: Tripti Nayak, R. K. Bajpai

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An ongoing field experiment was conducted at Long term fertilizer experiment, Raipur, to study the Effect of fertilization (both organic and inorganic) on soil Physical properties (infiltration rate) of Vertisol of ten treatments viz. The treatment combinations for were T1(Control),T2(50%NPK), T3(100%NPK), T4(150%NPK), T5(100%NPK+Zn), T6(100%NP), T7(100%N), T8(100%NPK+FYM), T9 (50%NPK+BGA) and T10(50%NPK+GM). Farmyard manure and green manure is applied at the treatment of T8 (100%NPK+FYM) and T10 (50%NPK+GM). Result showed that the highest infiltration rate recorded T8(100%NPK+FYM) and T10 (50%NPK+GM). These considerations have led to a renewed interest in the organic manures such as FYM, compost and green manures, which are formulations helps in sustainable agriculture production either by providing plants with fixed nitrogen, available P or by other plant growth promoting substances. Organic matter (OM) is the life of the soil because it contains all the essential elements required for plant growth. It also serves as food for soil bacteria. Decomposed OM, known as humus, improves the soil tilth, quality and helps the plant to grow. In general among all the other treatments and control gave poorest infiltration rate. Incorporation of organic sources considerably improved the soil physical properties such as decrease in bulk density and increase in infiltration rate and available NPK status of the soil. Study showed that wherever, nitrogen was substituted through GM, FYM or crop residue (rice straw) in rice, Corresponding decrease in bulk density favorably enhanced the infiltration rate and it was found to be highest in the green-manured plot, FYM and lowest in control. Concluded that Continuous monitoring of physical properties should be carried out for maintaining soil health and enhancing the crop production.

Keywords: long term effect, FYM, green manure, infiltration rate, soil health, crop productivity, vertisol

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Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

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The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF (rate of change of frequency)

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Authors: Wanru Huang, Fujun Wang, Chaoyue Wang, Yuan Tang, Zhifeng Yao, Ruofu Xiao, Xin Chen

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Rotating stall in centrifugal pump is an unsteady flow phenomenon that causes instabilities and high hydraulic losses. It typically occurs at low flow rates due to large flow separation in impeller blade passage. In order to reveal the influence of incoming flow conditions on rotating stall in centrifugal pump, a numerical method for investigating rotating stall was established. This method is based on a modified SST k-ω turbulence model and a fine mesh model was adopted. The calculated flow velocity in impeller by this method was in good agreement with PIV results. The effects of flow rate and sealing-ring leakage on stall characteristics of centrifugal pump were studied by using the proposed numerical approach. The flow structures in impeller under typical flow rates and typical sealing-ring leakages were analyzed. It is found that the stall vortex frequency and circumferential propagation velocity increase as flow rate decreases. With the flow rate decreases from 0.40Qd to 0.30Qd, the stall vortex frequency increases from 1.50Hz to 2.34Hz, the circumferential propagation velocity of the stall vortex increases from 3.14rad/s to 4.90rad/s. Under almost all flow rate conditions where rotating stall is present, there is low frequency of pressure pulsation between 0Hz-5Hz. The corresponding pressure pulsation amplitude increases with flow rate decreases. Taking the measuring point at the leading edge of the blade pressure surface as an example, the flow rate decreases from 0.40Qd to 0.30Qd, the pressure fluctuation amplitude increases by 86.9%. With the increase of leakage, the flow structure in the impeller becomes more complex, and the 8-shaped stall vortex is no longer stable. On the basis of the 8-shaped stall vortex, new vortex nuclei are constantly generated and fused with the original vortex nuclei under large leakage. The upstream and downstream vortex structures of the 8-shaped stall vortex have different degrees of swimming in the flow passage, and the downstream vortex swimming is more obvious. The results show that the proposed numerical approach could capture the detail vortex characteristics, and the incoming flow conditions have significant effects on the stall vortex in centrifugal pumps.

Keywords: centrifugal pump, rotating stall, numerical simulation, flow condition, vortex frequency

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Authors: Sohaib Raza, Parvez Mantry

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Frailty is a multi-system impairment associated with stressors such as age, disease, and invasive surgical procedures. This multi-system impairment can lead to increased post-transplant mortality and functional decline. Additionally, the prevalence and/or severity of frailty increases when patient pre-habilitation is unsatisfactory or lacking. We conducted a retrospective study to examine whether the COVID-19 Pandemic, and subsequent lack of patient access to pre-habilitation and physical therapy resources, led to an increase in the prevalence and severity of frailty, sarcopenia, and other comorbidities including diabetes, hypertension, and COPD. Secondarily, we examined the correlation between patient survival rate and liver frailty index as well as muscle wasting/sarcopenia. Data were analyzed in order to correlate variables associated with these parameters. Three hundred sixty-nine liver transplant candidates at Methodist Dallas Medical Center were administered pre-transplant frailty assessments, which consisted of chair stands, grip strength, and position balance time. A frailty score less than 3.2 indicated a robust condition, a score from 3.3 to 4.4 indicated a pre-frail condition, and a score greater than 4.5 indicated a frail condition. Greater than 50 percent of patients were found to have muscle wasting in the COVID-19 period (March 13, 2020 to February 28, 2022), an increase of 16.5 percent from the pre-COVID period (April 1st, 2018 to March 12, 2020). Additionally, sarcopenia was associated with a two-fold increase in patient mortality rate. Furthermore, high liver frailty index scores were associated with increased patient mortality. However, there was no significant difference in liver frailty index or number of comorbidities between patients in the two cohorts. Conclusion: The COVID-19 Pandemic exacerbated sarcopenia-related muscle wasting in liver transplant candidates, and patient survival rate was directly correlated with liver frailty index score and the presence of sarcopenia.

Keywords: frailty, sarcopenia, covid-19, patient mortality, pre-habilitation, liver transplant candidates

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Authors: Watchawin Ekphinitphithaya, Patompong Satapornpong

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Introduction: Carbamazepine (CBZ) is one of the most prescribed antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) by neurologists and non-neurologist worldwide. CBZ is usually prescribed along with other drugs, leading to the possibility of severe cutaneous adverse drug reactions (SCARs). The HLA-B*15:02 is strongly associated with CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS–TEN) in the Han Chinese and other Asian populations but not in European populations, while HLA-A*31:01 allele has been reported to be associated with CBZ-induced SCARs in European population and Japanese. Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of pharmacogenetics HLA-A*31:01 marker in a healthy Thai population associated with Carbamazepine-induced SCARs. Materials and Methods: Prospective study, 350 unrelated healthy Thais were recruited in this study. Human leukocyte antigen-A alleles were genotyped using PCR-sequence specific oligonucleotides (PCR-SSOs). Results: The frequency of HLA-A alleles were HLA-A*11:01 (190 alleles, 27.14%), HLA-A*24:02 (82 alleles, 11.71%), HLA-A*02:03 (80 alleles, 11.43%), HLA-A*33:03 (76 alleles, 10.86%), HLA-A*02:07 (58 alleles, 8.29%), HLA-A*02:01 (35 alleles, 5.00%), HLA-A*24:07 (29 alleles, 4.14%), HLA-A*02:06 – HLA-A*30:01 (15 alleles, 2.14%), and HLA-A*01:01 (14 alleles, 2.00%). Particularly, the number of HLA-A*31:01 alleles was 6 of 700 (0.86%) in the healthy Thai population. Many research presented varying distributions of HLA-A*31:01 in Asians, including 2% of Han Chinese, 9% of Japanese and 5% of Koreans. In addition, this allele was found approximately 2-5% in the Caucasian population. Conclusions: Thus, the pharmacogenetics database is vital to support in many populations, especially in Thais, for screening HLA-A*31:01 allele to avoid CBZ-induced SCARs before initiating treatments in each population.

Keywords: Carbamazepine, HLA-A*31:01, Thai population, pharmacogenetics

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Authors: H. Majour, L. Djabri

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Many methods in the groundwater vulnerability have been developed in the world (methods like PRAST, DRIST, APRON/ARAA, PRASTCHIM, GOD). In this study, our choice dealt with two recent complementary methods using category mapping of index with weighting criteria (Point County Systems Model MSCP) namely the standard DRASTIC method and SI (Susceptibility Index). At present, these two methods are the most used for the mapping of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater. Two classes of groundwater vulnerability in the Biskra sandy aquifer were identified by the DRASTIC method (average and high) and the SI method (very high and high). Integrated analysis has revealed that the high class is predominant for the DRASTIC method whereas for that of SI the preponderance is for the very high class. Furthermore, we notice that the method SI estimates better the vulnerability for the pollution in nitrates, with a rate of 85 % between the concentrations in nitrates of groundwater and the various established classes of vulnerability, against 75 % for the DRASTIC method. By including the land use parameter, the SI method produced more realistic results.

Keywords: DRASTIC, SI, GIS, Biskra sandy aquifer, Algeria

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Authors: Minakshi Goswami, M. V. Khire

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The urban land use is an outcome of geographical and socio economic factors over the decades. Hence, spatial information on land use and possibilities of alternate use is essential for the selection, planning and implementation to meet the increasing demands of human needs and welfare of the urban area. This information assists in monitoring the land use resulting out of charging demands of increasing urban population over the decades. So in this paper, a detailed work on urban land use pattern, with a special reference to build up land in Bangalore city is analyzed in view of the various master plans from 1975to 2011. An attempt has been made to study the status of urban land use of Bangalore city during this period to detect the changes on land utilization rate that has taken place in each master plan period, particularly in the built-up land. The set of measures taken by the city corporation to contain the problems regarding the extremely bothering existing land use in Bangalore city is analyzed.

Keywords: built up land, land use changes, master plan, population

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Authors: Scott Rawlings

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Victoria’s first State of the Bays report is an historic baseline study of the health of Port Phillip Bay and Western Port. The report includes 50 assessments of 36 indicators across a broad array of topics from the nitrogen cycle and water quality to key marine species and habitats. This paper discusses the processes for determining and assessing the indicators and comments on future priorities identified to maintain and improve the health of these water ways. Victoria’s population is now at six million, and growing at a rate of over 100,000 people per year - the highest increase in Australia – and the population of greater Melbourne is over four million. Port Phillip Bay and Western Port are vital marine assets at the centre of this growth and will require adaptive strategies if they are to remain in good condition and continue to deliver environmental, economic and social benefits. In 2014, it was in recognition of these pressures that the incoming Victorian Government committed to reporting on the state of the bays every five years. The inaugural State of the Bays report was issued by the independent Victorian Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability. The report brought together what is known about both bays, based on existing research. It was a baseline on which future reports will build and, over time, include more of Victoria’s marine environment. Port Phillip Bay and Western Port generally demonstrate healthy systems. Specific threats linked to population growth are a significant pressure. Impacts are more significant where human activity is more intense and where nutrients are transported to the bays around the mouths of creeks and drainage systems. The transport of high loads of nutrients and pollutants to the bays from peak rainfall events is likely to increase with climate change – as will sea level rise. Marine pests are also a threat. More than 100 introduced marine species have become established in Port Phillip Bay and can compete with native species, alter habitat, reduce important fish stocks and potentially disrupt nitrogen cycling processes. This study confirmed that our data collection regime is better within the Marine Protected Areas of Port Phillip Bay than in other parts. The State of the Bays report is a positive and practical example of what can be achieved through collaboration and cooperation between environmental reporters, Government agencies, academic institutions, data custodians, and NGOs. The State of the Bays 2016 provides an important foundation by identifying knowledge gaps and research priorities for future studies and reports on the bays. It builds a strong evidence base to effectively manage the bays and support an adaptive management framework. The Report proposes a set of indicators for future reporting that will support a step-change in our approach to monitoring and managing the bays – a shift from reporting only on what we do know, to reporting on what we need to know.

Keywords: coastal science, marine science, Port Phillip Bay, state of the environment, Western Port

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Authors: Fayiz Saifurahman, Noori Fida Mohammad

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Afghanistan produces the highest rate of wheat, it is the first source of food, and food security in Afghanistan is dependent on the availability of wheat. Although Afghanistan is the main producer of wheat, on the other hand, Afghanistan is the largest importers of flour. The objective of this study is to assess the structure and dynamics of the wheat market in Afghanistan, can compute with foreign markets, and increase the level of production. To complete this, a broad series of secondary data was complied with, group discussions and interviews with farmers, agricultural and market experts. The research findings propose that; the government should adopt different policies to support the local market. The government should distribute the seed, support financially and technically to increase wheat production.

Keywords: Afghanistan, wheat, production , import

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Authors: Abdelsalam Gomaa, Mahjabeen Ramzan, Tooba Ali Akbar, Huma Nadeem

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The use of tobacco and the health risks linked to it are well known in this day and age due to the presence of easily available information through the internet. The media is a powerful platform that is used by many anti-smoking awareness campaigns to reach their target audience; yet, it has been found that adolescents are taking up smoking every passing day. Half of this smoking population of youngsters resides in Asia alone, which includes Qatar, the focus country of this study. As smoking happens to be one of the largest avoidable causes of serious diseases like cancers and heart problems, children are taking up smoking at an alarming rate everywhere including Qatar. Importance of the health of the citizens of Qatar is one of the pillars of the Qatar vision 2030, which is to ensure a healthy population, both physically and mentally. Since the youth makes up a significant percentage of the population and in order to achieve the health objectives of the Qatar vision 2030, it is essential to ensure the health and well-being of this part of the population of the country as they are the future of Qatar. Children, especially boys who tend to be more aggressive by nature, are highly likely to develop behavioral and health issues due to smoking at an early age. Research conducted around the world has also emphasized on this association between the smokers developing a bad behaviour as well as poor social communication skills. However, due to lack of research into this association, very little is known about the extent to which smoking impacts the children’s academics, health and behaviour. Moreover, a study of this nature has not yet been conducted in Qatar previously as most of the studies focus on adult smokers and ways to minimize the number of smoking habits in universities and workplaces. This study solely focuses on identifying a relationship between smoking and its impacts on the adolescents by conducting a research on different schools across Qatar.

Keywords: adolescents, modelling techniques, Qatar, smoking

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Authors: Farhia Hassan Mohamed

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This study examined the macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation Rate in Somalia using quarterly time series data from 1991q1 to 2017q4 retired from World Development Indicators and SESRIC. It employed the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger Causality method to measure the long-run and short-run causality of the GDP, inflation exchange rate, and unemployment. The study confirmed that there is one cointegration equation between GDP, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment in Somalia. However, the VECM model's result indicates a long-run relationship among variables. The VEC Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test result confirmed that all covariates are statistically significant at 5% and are Granger's cause of inflation in the short term. Finally, the impulse response result showed that inflation responds negatively to the shocks from the exchange rate and unemployment rate and positively to GDP and itself. Drawing from the empirical findings, the study makes several policy recommendations for both the monetary and Government sides.

Keywords: CPI, OP, exchange rate, inflation ADF, Johansen, PP, VECM, impulse, ECT

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Authors: Jorge L. Nisperuza, Wilson Sandoval, Edward. A. Gil, Johan A. Jimenez

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In orbital mechanics, an active research topic is the calculation of interplanetary trajectories efficient in terms of energy and time. In this sense, this work concerns the calculation of the orbital elements for sending interplanetary probes in the extrasolar system TRAPPIST-1. Specifically, using the mathematical expressions of the circular and elliptical trajectory parameters, expressions for the flight time and the orbital transfer rate increase between orbits, the orbital parameters and the graphs of the trajectories of Hohmann and Hohmann bi-elliptic for sending a probe from the innermost planet to all the other planets of the studied system, are obtained. The relationship between the orbital transfer rate increments and the relationship between the flight times for the two transfer types is found. The results show that, for all cases under consideration, the Hohmann transfer results to be the least energy and temporary cost, a result according to the theory associated with Hohmann and Hohmann bi-elliptic transfers. Saving in the increase of the speed reaches up to 87% was found, and it happens for the transference between the two innermost planets, whereas the time of flight increases by a factor of up to 6.6 if one makes use of the bi-elliptic transfer, this for the case of sending a probe from the innermost planet to the outermost.

Keywords: bi-elliptic Hohmann transfer, exoplanet, extrasolar system, Hohmann transfer, TRAPPIST-1

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Authors: Siti Nurma Hanim Hadie, Asma’ Hassan, Zul Izhar Ismail, Ahmad Fuad Abdul Rahim, Mohd. Zarawi Mat Nor, Hairul Nizam Ismail

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Anatomy is a medical subject, which contributes to high cognitive load during learning. Despite its complexity, anatomy remains as the most important basic sciences subject with high clinical relevancy. Although anatomy knowledge is required for safe practice, many medical students graduated without having sufficient knowledge. In fact, anatomy knowledge among the medical graduates was reported to be declining and this had led to various medico-legal problems. Applying cognitive load theory (CLT) in anatomy teaching particularly lecture would be able to address this issue since anatomy information is often perceived as cognitively challenging material. CLT identifies three types of loads which are intrinsic, extraneous and germane loads, which combine to form the total cognitive load. CLT describe that learning can only occur when the total cognitive load does not exceed human working memory capacity. Hence, managing these three types of loads with the aim of optimizing the working memory capacity would be beneficial to the students in learning anatomy and retaining the knowledge for future application.

Keywords: cognitive load theory, intrinsic load, extraneous load, germane load

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Authors: Fariba Sepahvand, Seyed Hassan Moosa-kazemi

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The objective was to determine the population dynamics of Anopheles maculipinnis s.l. in relation to probable malaria transmission. The study was carried out in three villages in Isfahan and charmahal bakhteari provinces of Iran, from April to March 2014. Mosquitoes were collected by Total catch, Human and Animal bait collection. An. maculipinnis play as a dominant vector with exophagic and endophilic behavior. Ovary dissection revealed four dilatations indicate at least 9% of the population can reach to the dangerous age to potentially malaria transmission. Two peaks of blood feeding were observed, 9.00-10.00 P.M, and the 12.00-00.01 A.M. The gonotrophic cycle, survival rate, life expectancy of the species was 4, 0.82 and five days, respectively. Vectorial capacity was measured as 0.028. In conclusion, moderate climatic conditions support the persistence, density and longevity of An maculipinnis s.l. could result in more significant malaria transmission.

Keywords: age determination, Anopheles maculipinnis, center of Iran, Malaria

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Authors: Mohammad Saleh Al-Aboody

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In the present study 442 fecal samples from cattle, buffaloes, and sheep for contamination with helminthes. Samples were examined from 171 cattle, 128 buffaloes, and 143 sheep. The testing, during the period from May 2014 to April 2015, showed that 81 out of 171cattle were positive for helminthes infection (47.3%), with the rate of infection higher in females (55%) than in males (40%). In buffaloes, 41 of 128 tested were positive, a 32% rate of infection. Again, the infection rate was higher in females (47%) than in males (22%). In sheep, the rate of infection was highest of all three species. The results showed that, the infection rate among cattle were 50.3 % and Trichostrongyle species were the predominant parasites among both cattle and buffaloes. The prevalence rate was much higher in females than males. Regarding seasonal dynamics the highest infection rates with helminthes reported was in spring season.

Keywords: helminthes, prevalence, ruminants, trichostrongyle

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Authors: Nony Rahadiva

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The development of housing in urban areas can not be separated from the high rate of population growth from both natural population growth and population growth due to migration. The development is bounded by urban land area so that construction of flats become a development priority. Quality of residential flats are influenced by the patterns of behavior of its inhabitants. The frequency of contact between the occupants become one of the effects of good social relations, but harmful activity can degrade the environment, especially in flats. One of the social relationships that can be seen on the flats development is the residents in Kutobedah flat built in Malang city. Problems that occur in that place is unfavorable flat management due to social activities such as daily activities and also the neighboring activities of apartment dwellers who tend not to pay attention to the environment. Based on these problems we can do a study on social interaction in Kutobedah flat and its influence on the management of flat facilities and infrastructures. This research was carried out by submitting a questionnaire to the residents of the apartment based social activities , operations and maintenance of the flats. By using a weighted analysis, we can find that social interaction tenants is high, but the level of infrastructure and facilities management of the tenants is low so it is needed to counsel the residents how to use and maintain the infrastructure properly.

Keywords: activities, flat, infrastructure management, social interaction

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Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

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The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

Abstract:

We assessed the ecology of the organic and mineral soil layers of laurel-leaved (BB-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (BB-2 and Pw) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The soil respiration rate was higher in the deeper horizons (F and H) of organic layers than in those of mineral soil layers, suggesting organic layers may be where active microbial metabolism occurs. Respiration rates in the soil of BB-1, BB-2 and Pw forests were closely similar at 5 and 10°C. However, the soil respiration rate increased in proportion to temperatures of 15°C or above. We therefore consider the activity of soil microorganisms to markedly decrease at temperatures below 10°C. At a temperature of 15°C or above, the soil respiration rate in the BB-1 organic layers was higher than in those of the BB-2 and Pw organic layers, due to differences in forest vegetation that appeared to influence several salient soil properties, particularly pH and the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of the F and H horizons.

Keywords: forest soil, mineralization rate, heterotroph, soil respiration rate

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

Abstract:

The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Joseph F. Cabrera, Rachael Dela Cruz

Abstract:

This study specifically examines patterns that define ethnoracially diverse neighborhoods. Ethnoracial diversity is important as it facilitates cross-racial interactions within neighborhoods which have been theorized to be associated with such outcomes as intergroup harmony, the reduction of racial and ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and increases in racial tolerance. Los Angeles (LA) is an ideal location to study ethnoracial spatial patterns as it is one of the most ethnoracially diverse cities in the world. A large influx of Latinos, as well as Asians, have contributed to LA’s urban landscape becoming increasingly diverse over several decades. Our dataset contains all census tracts in Los Angeles County in 2016 and incorporates Census and ACS demographic and spatial data. We quantify ethnoracial diversity using a derivative of Simpson’s Diversity Index and utilize this measure to test previous literature that suggests Latinos are one of the key drivers of changing ethnoracial spatial patterns in Los Angeles. Preliminary results suggest that there has been an overall increase in ethnoracial diversity in Los Angeles neighborhoods over the past sixteen years. Patterns associated with this trend include decreases in predominantly white and black neighborhoods, increases in predominantly Latino and Asian neighborhoods, and a general decrease in the white populations of the most diverse neighborhoods. A similar pattern is seen in neighborhoods with large Latino increases- a decrease in white population, but with an increase in Asian and black populations. We also found support for previous research that suggests increases in Latino and Asian populations act as a buffer, allowing for black population increases without a sizeable decrease in the white population. Future research is needed to understand the underlying causes involved in many of the patterns and trends highlighted in this study.

Keywords: race, race and interaction, racial harmony, social interaction

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Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai

Abstract:

The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.

Keywords: insurance practitioners, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly

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Authors: Wisam Ismail, Chole Wright, Elizabeth Baker, Cathy Tait, Mohamed Salhab, Richard Linforth

Abstract:

Background: Post-mastectomy breast reconstruction is an important treatment option for women with breast cancer with psychosocial, emotional and quality of life benefits. Despite this, Asian patients are one-fifth as likely as Caucasian patients to undergo reconstruction after mastectomy. Aim: This study aimed to assess the difference in breast reconstruction rates between Asian and Caucasian patients treated at Bradford Teaching Hospitals between May 2011 – December 2015.The long-term goal is to equip healthcare professionals to improve breast cancer treatment outcome by increasing breast reconstruction rates in this sub-population. Methods: All patients undergoing mastectomy were identified using a prospectively collected departmental database. Further data was obtained via retrospective electronic case note review. Bradford city population is about 530.000 by the end of 2015, with 67.44% of the city's population was White ethnic groups and 26.83% Asian Ethnic Groups (UK population consensus). The majority of Asian population speaks Urdu, hence an Urdu speaking breast care nurse was appointed to facilitate communications and deliver a better understanding of the reconstruction options and pathways. Statistical analysis was undertaken using the SAS program. Patients were stratified by age, self-reported ethnicity, axillary surgery and reconstruction. Relative odds were calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses with adjustment for known confounders. An Urdu speaking breast care nurse was employed throughout this period to facilitate communication and patient decision making. Results: 506 patients underwent Mastectomy over 5 years. 72 (14%) Asian v. 434 (85%) Caucasian. Overall median age is 64 years (SD1.1). Asian median age is 62 (SD0.9), versus Caucasian 65 (SD1.2). Total axillary clearance rate was 30% (42% Asian v.30% Caucasian). Overall reconstruction rate was 126 patients (28.9%).Only 6 of 72 Asian patients (<1%) underwent breast reconstruction versus 121of 434 Caucasian (28%) (p < 0.04), Odds ratio 0.68, (95% confidence interval 0.57-0.79). Conclusions: There is a significant difference in post-mastectomy reconstruction rates between Asian and Caucasian patients. This difference is likely to be multi-factorial. Higher rates of axillary clearance in Asian patients might suggest later disease presentation and/or higher rates of subsequent adjuvant therapy, both of which, can impact on the suitability of breast reconstruction. Strategies aimed at reducing racial disparities in breast reconstruction should include symptom awareness to enable earlier presentation and facilitated communication to ensure informed decision-making.

Keywords: aesthetic, Asian, breast, reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 256