Search results for: indicators of vulnerability

Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: Vahab Behmanesh

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One of the topics that has always attracted the attention of sports medicine and sports science experts is the positive or negative effect of sports activities on the functioning of the body's immune system. In the present research, a course of aerobic running with spirulina consumption has been studied on the maximum oxygen consumption and the performance of some indicators of the immune system of men who have trained after one session of physical activity. In this research, 50 trained students were studied randomly in four groups, spirulina- aerobic, spirulina, placebo- aerobic, and control. In order to test the research hypotheses, one-way statistical method of variance (ANOVA) was used considering the significance level of a=0.005 and post hoc test (LSD). A blood sample was taken from the participants in the first stage test in fasting and resting state immediately after Bruce's maximal test on the treadmill until complete relaxation was reached, and their Vo2max value was determined through the aforementioned test. The subjects of the spirulina-aerobic running and placebo-aerobic running groups took three 500 mg spirulina and 500 mg placebo pills a day for six weeks and ran three times a week for 30 minutes at the threshold of aerobic stimulation. The spirulina and placebo groups also consumed spirulina and placebo tablets in the above method for six weeks. Then they did the same first stage test as the second stage test. Blood samples were taken to measure the number of CD4+, CD8+, NK, and the ratio of CD4+ to CD8+ on four occasions before and after the first and second stage tests. The analysis of the findings showed that: aerobic running and spirulina supplement alone increase Vo2max. Aerobic running and consumption of spirulina increases Vo2max more than other groups (P<0.05), +CD4 and hemoglobin of the spirulina-aerobic running group was significantly different from other groups (P=0.002), +CD4 of the groups together There was no significant difference, NK increased in all groups, the ratio of CD4+ to CD8+ between the groups had a significant difference (P=0.002), the ratio of CD4+ to CD8+ in the spirulina- aerobic group was lower than the spirulina and placebo groups. All in all, it can be concluded that the supplement of spirulina and aerobic exercise may increase Vo2max and improve safety indicators.

Keywords: spirulina (Q2), hemoglobin (Q3), aerobic exercise (Q3), residual activity (Q2), CD4+ to CD8+ ratio (Q3)

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Authors: Dina Maratovna Aikenova

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Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.

Keywords: children, Kazakhstan, policy, vulnerability

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Authors: Lia Mania, Ketevan Nanobashvili

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Background: The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has become the cause of a global health crisis during the current pandemic. This study aims to fill the paucity of epidemiological studies on the impact of COVID-19 on the oral health of pediatric populations. Methods: It was conducted an observational, cross-sectional study in Georgia, in Tbilisi (capital of Georgia), among 7 to 12-year-old PCR or rapid test-confirmed post-Covid populations in all districts of Tbilisi (10 districts in total). 332 beneficiaries who were infected with Covid within one year were included in the study. The population was selected in schools of Tbilisi according to the principle of cluster selection. A simple random selection took place in the selected clusters. According to this principle, an equal number of beneficiaries were selected in all districts of Tbilisi. By July 1, 2022, according to National Center for Disease Control and Public Health data (NCDC.Ge), the number of test-confirmed cases in the population aged 0-18 in Tbilisi was 115137 children (17.7% of all confirmed cases). The number of patients to be examined was determined by the sample size. Oral screening, microbiological examination of saliva, and administration of oral health questionnaires to guardians were performed. Statistical processing of data was done with SPSS-23. Risk factors were estimated by odds ratio and logistic regression with 95% confidence interval. Results: Statistically reliable differences between the averages of oral health indicators in asymptomatic and symptomatic covid-infected groups are: for caries intensity (DMF+def) t=4.468 and p=0.000, for modified gingival index (MGI) t=3.048, p=0.002, for simplified oral hygiene index (S-OHI) t=4.853; p=0.000. Symptomatic covid-infection has a reliable effect on the oral microbiome (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis); (n=332; 77.3% vs n=332; 58.0%; OR=2.46, 95%CI: 1.318-4.617). According to the logistic regression, it was found that the severity of the covid infection has a significant effect on the frequency of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria in the oral cavity B=0.903 AOR=2.467 (CL 1.318-4.617). Symptomatic covid-infection affects oral health indicators, regardless of the presence of other risk factors, such as parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate meal, fruit consumption. (p<0.05). Conclusion: Risk factors (parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate consumption) were associated with poorer oral health status in a post-Covid population of 7- to 12-year-old children. However, such a risk factor as symptomatic ongoing covid-infection affected the oral microbiome in terms of the abundant growth of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis) and further worsened oral health indicators. Thus, a close association was established between symptomatic covid-infection and microbiome changes in the post-covid period; also - between the variables of oral health indicators and the symptomatic course of covid-infection.

Keywords: oral microbiome, COVID-19, population based research, oral health indicators

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Authors: Endang Jati Mat Sahid, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Robust economic growth, increasing population, and personal consumption are the main drivers for the rapid increase of energy demand in Malaysia. Increasing demand has compounded the issue of national energy security due to over-dependence on fossil fuel, depleting indigenous domestic conventional energy resources which in turns has increased the country’s energy import dependence. In order to improve its energy security, Malaysia has seriously embarked on a renewable energy journey. Many initiatives on renewable energy have been introduced in the past decade. These strategies have resulted in the exploding growth of renewable energy deployment in Malaysia. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of renewable energy deployment on energy security. Secondary data was used to calculate the energy security indicators. The study also compared the results of applying different energy security indicators namely availability, applicability, affordability and acceptability dimension of energy resources. The evaluation shows that Malaysia will experience slight improvement in availability and acceptability dimension of energy security. This study suggests that energy security level could be further enhanced by efficient utilization of energy, reducing carbon content of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries.

Keywords: energy policy, energy security, Malaysia, renewable energy

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Authors: Irene Doosuur Mngutyo

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The preliminary stages in the development of human communities are the formation of a correct understanding of people’s needs. However, perception of human needs is highly subjective and difficult to aggregate. Quality of life measurements are an appropriate means for achieving an understanding of Human needs. Hence this study endeavors to measure quality of life in Makurdi using subjective indices to measure three aspects of subjective wellbeing. A sample of 400 respondents achieved by applying the Taro Yamane formula to Makurdi’s projected population. Questionnaires were randomly distributed to residents of nine wards in Makurdi. Findings from a pilot study( N=100) demonstrated that among the 2 aspects of overall quality of life investigated,22% had a mean low overall assessment of quality of life now being3on the scale and an even poorer assessment for projected quality in the next five years by 17%(3)although an equal percentage are hopeful for a better life(10)in the next five years.60% of the respondents record very rare positive feelings while only 10% have positive feelings always on the eudaimonic scale69%strongly agree that they have a purposeful and meaningful life. Findings indicate good social ties as a strong indicator for perceived good feelings and even though quality of life is perceived as low there is optimism for the future.

Keywords: quality of life, subjective indicators, development, urban planning

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Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz

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Eco-efficiency is receiving ever-increasing interest as an indicator of sustainability, as it links environmental and economic performances in productive activities. In agriculture, these indicators and their determinants prove relevant due to the close relationships in this activity between the use of natural resources, which is generally limited, and the provision of basic goods to society. In this context, various analyses have focused on eco-efficiency by considering individual family farms as the basic production unit. However, not only must the measure of efficiency be taken into account, but also the existence of a series of factors which constitute socio-economic, political-institutional, and environmental determinants. Said factors have been studied to a lesser extent in the literature. The present work analyzes eco-efficiency at a micro level, focusing on small-scale family farms as the main decision-making units in horticulture in southeast Spain, a sector which represents about 30% of the fresh vegetables produced in the country and about 20% of those consumed in Europe. The objectives of this study are a) to obtain a series of eco-efficiency indicators by estimating several pressure ratios and economic value added in farming, b) to analyze the influence of specific social, economic and environmental variables on the aforementioned eco-efficiency indicators. The present work applies the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which calculates different combinations of environmental pressures (water usage, phytosanitary contamination, waste management, etc.) and aggregate economic value. In a second stage, an analysis is conducted on the influence of the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of family farms on the eco-efficiency indicators, as endogeneous variables, through the use of truncated regression and bootstrapping techniques, following Simar-Wilson methodology. The results reveal considerable inefficiency in aspects such as waste management, while there is relatively little inefficiency in water usage and nitrogen balance. On the other hand, characteristics, such as product specialization, the adoption of quality certifications and belonging to a cooperative do have a positive impact on eco-efficiency. These results are deemed to be of interest to agri-food systems structured on small-scale producers, and they may prove useful to policy-makers as regards managing public environmental programs in agriculture.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, eco-efficiency, family farms, horticulture, socioeconomic features

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Authors: Bayu Anggara, Arita Dewi Nugrahini, Didik Purwadi

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Dry sorting workstation needs labor to produce green tea in Gambung Tea Factory. Observation results show that there is labor who are not working at the moment and doing overtime jobs to meet production targets. The measurement of the level of labor effectiveness has never been done before. The purpose of this study is to determine the level of labor effectiveness and provide recommendations for improvement based on the results of the Pareto diagram and Ishikawa diagram. The method used to measure the level of labor effectiveness is Overall Labor Effectiveness (OLE). OLE had three indicators which are availability, performance, and quality. Recommendations are made based on the results of the Pareto diagram and Ishikawa diagram for indicators that do not meet world standards. Based on the results of the study, the OLE value was 68.19%. Recommendations given to improve labor performance are adding mechanics, rescheduling rest periods, providing special training for labor, and giving rewards to labor. Furthermore, the recommendations for improving the quality of labor are procuring water content measuring devices, create material standard policies, and rescheduling rest periods.

Keywords: Ishikawa diagram, labor effectiveness, OLE, Pareto diagram

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Authors: Xiujing Chen, Thammananya Sakcharoen, Wilailuk Niyommaneerat

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China's tourism industry is in a state of shock and recovery, although COVID-19 has brought great impact and challenges to the tourism industry. The theory of sustainable development originates from the contradiction of increasing awareness of environmental protection and the pursuit of economic interests. The sustainable development of tourism should consider social, economic, and environmental factors and develop tourism in a planned and targeted way from the overall situation. Guilin is one of the popular tourist cities in China. However, there exist several problems in Guilin tourism, such as low quality of scenic spot construction and low efficiency of tourism resource development. Due to its unwell-managed, Guilin's tourism industry is facing problems such as supply and demand crowding pressure for tourists. According to the data from 2009 to 2019, there is a change in the degree of sustainable development of Guilin tourism. This research aimed to evaluate the sustainable development state of Guilin tourism using the DPSIR (driving force/pressure/state/impact/response) framework and to provide suggestions and recommendations for sustainable development in Guilin. An improved TOPSIS (technology for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) model based on the entropy weights relationship is applied to the quantitative analysis and to analyze the mechanisms of sustainable development of tourism in Guilin. The DPSIR framework organizes indicators into sub-five categories: of which twenty-eight indicators related to sustainable aspects of Guilin tourism are classified. The study analyzed and summarized the economic, social, and ecological effects generated by tourism development in Guilin from 2009-2019. The results show that the conversion rate of tourism development in Guilin into regional economic benefits is more efficient than that into social benefits. Thus, tourism development is an important driving force of Guilin's economic growth. In addition, the study also analyzed the static weights of 28 relevant indicators of sustainable development of tourism in Guilin and ranked them from largest to smallest. Then it was found that the economic and social factors related to tourism revenue occupy the highest weight, which means that the economic and social development of Guilin can influence the sustainable development of Guilin tourism to a greater extent. Therefore, there is a two-way causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Guilin. At the same time, ecological development-related indicators also have relatively large weights, so ecological and environmental resources also have a great influence on the sustainable development of Guilin tourism.

Keywords: DPSIR framework, entropy weights analysis, sustainable development of tourism, TOPSIS analysis

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Authors: Bassma A. Abdel Haleem, Ehab K. Emam, George E. Yacoub, Ashraf M. Salem

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Background: Obesity is an increasingly common problem in childhood. Childhood obesity is considered the main risk factor for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (diabetes type 2, dyslipidemia, and hypertension). Recent studies estimated that among children with obesity 30-60% will develop MetS. Visceral fat thickness is a valuable predictor of the development of MetS. Computed tomography and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry are the main techniques to assess visceral fat. However, they carry the risk of radiation exposure and are expensive procedures. Consequently, they are seldom used in the assessment of visceral fat in children. Some studies explored the potential of ultrasound as a substitute to assess visceral fat in the elderly and found promising results. Given the vulnerability of children to radiation exposure, we sought to evaluate ultrasound as a safer and more cost-efficient alternative for measuring visceral fat in obese children. Additionally, we assessed the correlation between visceral fat and obesity indicators such as insulin resistance. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 46 children with obesity (aged 6–16 years). Their visceral fat was evaluated by ultrasound. Subcutaneous fat thickness (SFT), i.e., the measurement from the skin-fat interface to the linea alba, and visceral fat thickness (VFT), i.e., the thickness from the linea alba to the aorta, were measured and correlated with anthropometric measures, fasting lipid profile, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and liver enzymes (ALT). Results: VFT assessed via ultrasound was found to strongly correlate with the BMI, HOMA-IR with AUC for VFT as a predictor of insulin resistance of 0.858 and cut off point of >2.98. VFT also correlates positively with serum triglycerides and serum ALT. VFT correlates negatively with HDL. Conclusions: Ultrasound, a safe and cost-efficient technique, could be a useful tool for measuring the abdominal fat thickness in children with obesity. Ultrasound-measured VFT could be an appropriate prognostic factor for insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia, and elevated liver enzymes in obese children.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, pediatric obesity, sonography, visceral fat

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Authors: Rusne Kregzdaite, Erika Godlevska, Morta Vidunaite

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The main aim of this research is to explore existing methodologies for artists’ labour force and create artists’ socio-economic and creative conditions in an assessment model. Artists have dual aims in their creative working process: 1) income and 2) artistic self-expression. The valuation of their conditions takes into consideration both sides: the factors related to income and the satisfaction of the creative process and its result. The problem addressed in the study: tangible and intangible artists' criteria used for assessments creativity conditions. The proposed model includes objective factors (working time, income, etc.) and subjective factors (salary covering essential needs, self-satisfaction). Other intangible indicators are taken into account: the impact on the common culture, social values, and the possibility to receive awards, to represent the country in the international market. The empirical model consists of 59 separate indicators, grouped into eight categories. The deviation of each indicator from the general evaluation allows for identifying the strongest and the weakest components of artists’ conditions.

Keywords: artist conditions, artistic labour force, cultural policy, indicator, assessment model

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Authors: Chuanbo Xu, Xinying Li, Gejirifu De, Yunna Wu

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Energy Internet (EI) is a new form that deeply integrates the Internet and the entire energy process from production to consumption. The assessment of energy efficient performance is of vital importance for the long-term sustainable development of EI project. Although the newly proposed fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm considers the randomness of uncertainty, it relies too much on the experience and knowledge of experts. Fortunately, the enrichment of EI data has enabled the utilization of data-driven methods. Therefore, the main purpose of this work is to assess the energy efficient of park-level EI by using a combination of a data-driven method with the fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm. Firstly, the indicators for the energy efficient are identified through literature review. Secondly, the artificial neural network (ANN)-based data-driven method is employed to cluster the values of indicators. Thirdly, the energy efficient of EI project is calculated through the fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by a case study.

Keywords: energy efficient, energy internet, data-driven, fuzzy integrated evaluation, cloud model

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Authors: Danika Tynes

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Telehealth is a promising advancement in health care, though there are certain conditions under which telehealth has a greater chance of success. This research sought to further the understanding of what conditions compel the success of telehealth adoption at the systems level applying Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) theory (Rogers, 1962). System-level indicators were selected to represent four components of DoI theory (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, and observability) and regressed on 5 types of telehealth (teleradiology, teledermatology, telepathology, telepsychology, and remote monitoring) using multiple logistic regression. The analyses supported relative advantage and compatibility as the strongest influencers of telehealth adoption, remote monitoring in particular. These findings help to quantitatively clarify the factors influencing the adoption of innovation and advance the ability to make recommendations on the viability of state telehealth adoption. In addition, results indicate when DoI theory is most applicable to the understanding of telehealth diffusion. Ultimately, this research may contribute to more focused allocation of scarce health care resources through consideration of existing state conditions available foster innovation.

Keywords: adoption, diffusion of innovation theory, remote monitoring, system-level indicators

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Authors: Birtukan Atinkut Asmare

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Climate change disproportionately affects many Africans who heavily rely on climate-exposed sectors such as rain-fed agriculture and fishing, rendering them highly vulnerable. Gender plays a significant role, as men and women experience unequal impacts and vulnerabilities due to gender norms, labor divisions, resource access, and power dynamics. Drawing on an integrated framework, this study sheds light on the gendered impacts of climate change on household’s livelihood, their vulnerability, and adaptation in rural Ethiopia's Lake Tana Basin. This study utilized mixed research methods, integrating diverse qualitative techniques such as focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations, along with quantitative data gathered through household surveys. The findings reveal that women-headed households were more vulnerable to climate change than male-headed households. Flood was the major climate-induced hazards in the area that threatened the lives and livelihoods of households. In response to climate change, households undertook different adaptation measures such as agroforestry practices, crop diversification, seasonal migration, petty trading, charcoal and fuel wood sales. However, the adaptation strategies were slightly varied based on the gender of the household head. Women-headed households specifically engaged in fuelwood collection and selling and petty trading activities. The main constraints for adaptation were limited access to technologies, extension services, information, and financial services. Therefore, this research urges attention from research, policy, and advisory services on rural households who are trying to survive in the face of climate change.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change impacts, ethiopia, gender

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Authors: Nassereddine Attari

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Each operation to strengthen or repair requires special consideration and requires the use of methods, tools and techniques appropriate to the situation and specific problems of each of the constructs. The aim of this paper is to study the pathology of building of reinforced concrete towards the earthquake and the vulnerability assessment using a non-linear Pushover analysis and to develop curves for a medium capacity building in order to estimate the damaged condition of the building.

Keywords: pushover analysis, earthquake, damage, strengthening

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Authors: Danika Tynes

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Innovations in technology have implications for sustainable development in health and wellness. Remote monitoring is one innovation for which the evidence-base has grown to support its viability as a quality healthcare delivery adjunct. This research reviews global data on telehealth adoption, in particular, remote monitoring, and the conditions under which its success becomes more likely. System-level indicators were selected to represent four constructs of DoI theory (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, and observability) and assessed against 5 types of Telehealth (Teleradiology, Teledermatology, Telepathology, Telepsychology, and Remote Monitoring) using ordinal logistic regression. Analyses include data from 84 countries, as extracted from the World Health Organization, World Bank, ICT (Information Communications Technology) Index, and HDI (Human Development Index) datasets. Analyses supported relative advantage and compatibility as the strongest influencers of remote monitoring adoption. Findings from this research may help focus on the allocation of resources, as a sustainability concern, through consideration of systems-level factors that may influence the success of remote monitoring adoption.

Keywords: remote monitoring, diffusion of innovation, telehealth, digital health

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Authors: F. Guspi, E. García

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This exploratory study gives an overview of the evolution of the main financial and performance indicators of the Academic Spin-Off’s and High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s in year 3 and year 6 after its creation in the region of Catalonia in Spain. The study compares and evaluates results of these different measures of performance and the degree of success of these companies for each University. We found that the average Catalonian Academic Spin-Off is small and have not achieved the sustainability stage at year 6. On the contrary, a small group of High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s exhibit robust performance with high profits in year 6. Our results support the need to increase selectivity and support for these companies especially near year 3, because are the ones that will bring wealth and employment. University role as an investor has rigid norms and habits that impede an efficient economic return from their ASO investment. Universities with high performance on sales and employment in year 3 not always could sustain this growth in year 6 because their ASO’s are not profitable. On the contrary, profitable ASO exhibit superior performance in all measurement indicators in year 6. We advocate the need of a balanced growth (with profits) as a way to obtain subsequent continuous growth.

Keywords: Academic Spin-Off (ASO), university entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial university, high growth, New Technology Based Companies (NTBC), University Spin-Off

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Authors: Feifei Wu, Pius Babuna, Xiaohua Yang

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The suitability evaluation of human settlements over time and space is essential to track potential challenges towards suitable human settlements and provide references for policy-makers. This study established a theoretical framework of human settlements based on the nature, human, economy, society and residence subsystems. Evaluation indicators were determined with the consideration of the coupling effect among subsystems. Based on the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test algorithm, the global sensitivity analysis that considered the coupling effect among indicators was used to determine the weights of indicators. The human settlement suitability was evaluated at both subsystems and comprehensive system levels in 30 provinces of China between 2000 and 2016. The findings were as follows: (1) human settlements suitability index (HSSI) values increased significantly in all 30 provinces from 2000 to 2016. Among the five subsystems, the suitability index of the residence subsystem in China exhibited the fastest growinggrowth, fol-lowed by the society and economy subsystems. (2) HSSI in eastern provinces with a developed economy was higher than that in western provinces with an underdeveloped economy. In con-trast, the growing rate of HSSI in eastern provinces was significantly higher than that in western provinces. (3) The inter-provincial difference of in HSSI decreased from 2000 to 2016. For sub-systems, it decreased for the residence system, whereas it increased for the economy system. (4) The suitability of the natural subsystem has become a limiting factor for the improvement of human settlements suitability, especially in economically developed provinces such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong. The results can be helpful to support decision-making and policy for improving the quality of human settlements in a broad nature, human, economy, society and residence context.

Keywords: human settlements, suitability evaluation, extended fourier amplitude, human settlement suitability

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Authors: Jamaa Salih, Francis Edum-Fotwe, Andrew Price

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One of the most critical aspects of the management of road infrastructure is the type and scale of maintenance systems adopted and the consequences of their inadequacy. The performance of road maintenance systems can be assessed by a number of important indicators such as: cost, safety, environmental impact, and level of complaints by users. A review of practice reveals that insufficient level of expenditure or poor management of the road network often has serious consequences for the economic and social life of a country in terms of vehicle operating costs (VOC), travel time costs, accident costs and environmental impact. Despite an increase in the attention paid by global road agencies to the environmental and the road users’ satisfaction, the overwhelming evidence from the available literature agree on the lack of similar levels of attention for the two factors in many developing countries. While many sources agree that the road maintenance backlog is caused by either the shortage of expenditures or lack of proper management or both, it appears that managing the available assets particularly in the developing countries is the main issue. To address this subject, this paper will concentrate on exposing the various issues related to this field.

Keywords: environmental impact, performance indicators, road maintenance, users’ satisfaction

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Authors: Masoud Mahdavi

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Today, developed and industrial cities have all kinds of sewage and water transfer canals, subway tunnels, infrastructure facilities, etc., which have caused underground cavities to be created under the buildings. The presence of these cavities causes behavioral changes in the structural behavior that must be fully evaluated. In the present study, using Abaqus finite element software, the effect of cavities with 0.5 and 1.5 meters in diameter at a depth of 2.5 meters from the earth's surface (with a circular cross-section) on the performance of the foundation and the ground (soil) has been evaluated. For this purpose, the Kobe earthquake was applied to the models for 10 seconds. Also, pore water pressure and weight were considered on the models to get complete results. The results showed that by creating and increasing the diameter of circular cavities in the soil, three indicators; 1) von Mises stress, 2) displacement and 3) plastic strain have had oscillating, ascending and ascending processes, respectively, which shows the relationship between increasing the diameter index of underground cavities and structural indicators of structure-foundation-soil.

Keywords: underground excavations, foundation, structural substrates, Abaqus software, Kobe earthquake, time history analysis

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Authors: K. Jahani, J. Razavi

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Nowadays, to decrease the number of downtimes in the industries such as metal mining, petroleum and chemical industries, predictive maintenance is crucial. In order to have efficient predictive maintenance, knowing the performance of critical equipment of production line such as pumps and hydro-cyclones under variable operating parameters, selecting best indicators of this equipment health situations, best locations for instrumentation, and also measuring of these indicators are very important. In this paper, computer aided engineering (CAE) tools are implemented to study some important elements of copper process line, namely slurry pumps and cyclone to predict the performance of these components under different working conditions. These modeling and simulations can be used in predicting, for example, the damage tolerance of the main shaft of the slurry pump or wear rate and location of cyclone wall or pump case and impeller. Also, the simulations can suggest best-measuring parameters, measuring intervals, and their locations.

Keywords: computer aided engineering, predictive maintenance, fault detection, mining process line, slurry pump, hydrocyclone

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Authors: Victor N. Anisimov, Lyubov A. Boyko, Yazgul R. Almukhametova, Natalia V. Galkina, Alexander V. Latanov

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Modern commercials presented on billboards, TV and on the Internet contain a lot of information about the product or service in text form. However, this information cannot always be perceived and understood by consumers. Typical sociological focus group studies often cannot reveal important features of the interpretation and understanding information that has been read in text messages. In addition, there is no reliable method to determine the degree of understanding of the information contained in a text. Only the fact of viewing a text does not mean that consumer has perceived and understood the meaning of this text. At the same time, the tools based on marketing analysis allow only to indirectly estimate the process of reading and understanding a text. Therefore, the aim of this work is to develop a valid method of recording objective indicators in real time for assessing the fact of reading and the degree of text comprehension. Psychophysiological parameters recorded during text reading can form the basis for this objective method. We studied the relationship between multimodal psychophysiological parameters and the process of text comprehension during reading using the method of correlation analysis. We used eye-tracking technology to record eye movements parameters to estimate visual attention, electroencephalography (EEG) to assess cognitive load and polygraphic indicators (skin-galvanic reaction, SGR) that reflect the emotional state of the respondent during text reading. We revealed reliable interrelations between perceiving the information and the dynamics of psychophysiological parameters during reading the text in commercials. Eye movement parameters reflected the difficulties arising in respondents during perceiving ambiguous parts of text. EEG dynamics in rate of alpha band were related with cumulative effect of cognitive load. SGR dynamics were related with emotional state of the respondent and with the meaning of text and type of commercial. EEG and polygraph parameters together also reflected the mental difficulties of respondents in understanding text and showed significant differences in cases of low and high text comprehension. We also revealed differences in psychophysiological parameters for different type of commercials (static vs. video, financial vs. cinema vs. pharmaceutics vs. mobile communication, etc.). Conclusions: Our methodology allows to perform multimodal evaluation of text perusal and the quality of text reading in commercials. In general, our results indicate the possibility of designing an integral model to estimate the comprehension of reading the commercial text in percent scale based on all noticed markers.

Keywords: reading, commercials, eye movements, EEG, polygraphic indicators

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Authors: Claire Limoge Schraen, Philippe Gueguen, Cedric Giry, Cedric Desprez, Frédéric Ragueneau

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Mediterranean area is characterized by numerous monumental or vernacular masonry structures illustrating old ways of build and live. Those precious buildings are often poorly documented, present complex shapes and loadings, and are protected by the States, leading to legal constraints. This area also presents a moderate to high seismic activity. Even moderate earthquakes can be magnified by local site effects and cause collapse or significant damage. Moreover the structural resistance of masonry buildings, especially when less famous or located in rural zones has been generally lowered by many factors: poor maintenance, unsuitable restoration, ambient pollution, previous earthquakes. Recent earthquakes prove that any damage to these architectural witnesses to our past is irreversible, leading to the necessity of acting preventively. This means providing preventive assessments for hundreds of structures with no or few documents. In this context we want to propose a general method, based on hierarchized numerical models, to provide preliminary structural diagnoses at a regional scale, indicating whether more precise investigations and models are necessary for each building. To this aim, we adapt different tools, being developed such as photogrammetry or to be created such as a preprocessor starting from pictures to build meshes for a FEM software, in order to allow dynamic studies of the buildings of the panel. We made an inventory of 198 baroque chapels and churches situated in the French Alps. Then their structural characteristics have been determined thanks field surveys and the MicMac photogrammetric software. Using structural criteria, we determined eight types of churches and seven types for chapels. We studied their dynamical behavior thanks to CAST3M, using EC8 spectrum and accelerogramms of the studied zone. This allowed us quantifying the effect of the needed simplifications in the most sensitive zones and choosing the most effective ones. We also proposed threshold criteria based on the observed damages visible in the in situ surveys, old pictures and Italian code. They are relevant in linear models. To validate the structural types, we made a vibratory measures campaign using vibratory ambient noise and velocimeters. It also allowed us validating this method on old masonry and identifying the modal characteristics of 20 churches. Then we proceeded to a dynamic identification between numerical and experimental modes. So we updated the linear models thanks to material and geometrical parameters, often unknown because of the complexity of the structures and materials. The numerically optimized values have been verified thanks to the measures we made on the masonry components in situ and in laboratory. We are now working on non-linear models redistributing the strains. So we validate the damage threshold criteria which we use to compute the vulnerability curves of each defined structural type. Our actual results show a good correlation between experimental and numerical data, validating the final modeling simplifications and the global method. We now plan to use non-linear analysis in the critical zones in order to test reinforcement solutions.

Keywords: heritage structures, masonry numerical modeling, seismic vulnerability assessment, vibratory measure

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Authors: Cristian Matti, Valerie Fowles, Eva Enyedi, Piotr Pogorzelski

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The system mapping process can be defined as a knowledge service where a team of facilitators, experts and practitioners facilitate a guided conversation, enable the exchange of information and support an iterative curation process. System mapping processes rely on science-based tools to introduce and simplify a variety of components and concepts of socio-technical systems through metaphors while facilitating an interactive dialogue process to enable the design of co-created maps. System maps work then as “artifacts” to provide information and focus the conversation into specific areas around the defined challenge and related decision-making process. Knowledge management facilitates the curation of that data gathered during the system mapping sessions through practices of documentation and subsequent knowledge co-production for which common practices from data science are applied to identify new patterns, hidden insights, recurrent loops and unexpected elements. This study presents empirical evidence on the application of these techniques to explore mechanisms by which visual tools provide guiding principles to portray system components, key variables and types of data through the lens of climate change. In addition, data science facilitates the structuring of elements that allow the analysis of layers of information through affinity and clustering analysis and, therefore, develop simple indicators for supporting the decision-making process. This paper addresses methodological and empirical elements on the horizontal learning process that integrate system mapping through visual tools, interpretation, cognitive transformation and analysis. The process is designed to introduce practitioners to simple iterative and inclusive processes that create actionable knowledge and enable a shared understanding of the system in which they are embedded.

Keywords: indicators, knowledge management, system mapping, visual tools

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Authors: Arkaprabha Bhattacharyya, Makarand Hastak

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The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in terms of its global reach and economic impacts. Historically, investment in infrastructure development projects has been touted to boost the economic growth of a nation. The State and Local governments responsible for delivering infrastructure assets work under tight budgets. Therefore, it is important to understand which infrastructure projects have the highest potential of boosting economic growth in the post-pandemic era. This paper presents relationships between infrastructure projects and economic growth. Statistical relationships between investment in different types of infrastructure projects (transit, water and wastewater, highways, power, manufacturing etc.) and indicators of economic growth are presented using historic data between 2002 and 2020 from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The outcome of the paper is the comparison of statistical correlations between investment in different types of infrastructure projects and indicators of economic growth. The comparison of the statistical correlations is useful in ranking the types of infrastructure projects based on their ability to influence economic prosperity. Therefore, investment in the infrastructures with the higher rank will have a better chance of boosting the economic growth. Once, the ranks are derived, they can be used by the decision-makers in infrastructure investment related decision-making process.

Keywords: economic growth, infrastructure development, infrastructure projects, strategic investment

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Authors: Gianni Blasi, Daniele Perrone, Maria Antonietta Aiello

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The seismic vulnerability of non-structural components is nowadays recognized to be a key issue in performance-based earthquake engineering. Recent loss estimation studies, as well as the damage observed during past earthquakes, evidenced how non-structural damage represents the highest rate of economic loss in a building and can be in many cases crucial in a life-safety view during the post-earthquake emergency. The procedures developed to evaluate the seismic demand on non-structural components have been constantly improved and recent studies demonstrated how the existing formulations provided by main Standards generally ignore features which have a sensible influence on the definition of the seismic acceleration/displacements subjecting non-structural components. Since the influence of the infills on the dynamic behaviour of RC structures has already been evidenced by many authors, it is worth to be noted that the evaluation of the seismic demand on non-structural components should consider the presence of the infills as well as their mechanical properties. This study focuses on the evaluation of time-history floor acceleration in RC buildings; which is a useful mean to perform seismic vulnerability analyses of non-structural components through the well-known cascade method. Dynamic analyses are performed on an 8-storey RC frame, taking into account the presence of the infills; the influence of the elastic modulus of the panel on the results is investigated as well as the presence of openings. Floor accelerations obtained from the analyses are used to evaluate the floor response spectra, in order to define the demand on non-structural components depending on the properties of the infills. Finally, the results are compared with formulations provided by main International Standards, in order to assess the accuracy and eventually define the improvements required according to the results of the present research work.

Keywords: floor spectra, infilled RC frames, non-structural components, seismic demand

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Authors: Mahvish Anwaar

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Research Question: In this paper, we explore the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Research Findings: The unbalanced panel data starting from 2000 to 2018 is collected to analyze the causality among banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. The main focus of the study is to check the direction of causality among selected variables. The results of the study support the demand following, supply leading, feedback, and neutrality hypothesis conditional to different measures of banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Theoretical Implication: Jayakumar, Pradhan, Dash, Maradana, and Gaurav (2018) proposed a theoretical model of the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth by using different indicators. So, we empirically test the proposed indicators in our study. This study makes a contribution to the literature by showing the defined relationship between developing and developed countries. Policy Implications: The study covers various policy implications regarding investors to analyze how to properly manage their finances, and government agencies will take help from the present study to find the best and most suitable policies by examining how the economy can grow concerning its finances.

Keywords: competition, stability, economic growth, vector auto-regression, granger causality

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Authors: Tsu-Hsu Yen

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The interfacial gas adsorption presents a frequent challenge and opportunity for micro-/nano-fluidic operation. In this study, we investigate the wettability, gas accumulation, and nanobubble formation on various homogeneous surface conditions by using MD simulation, including a series of 3D and quasi-2D argon-water-solid systems simulation. To precisely determine the wettability on various substrates, several indicators were calculated. Among these wettability indicators, the water PMF (potential of mean force) has the most correlation tendency with interfacial water molecular orientation than depletion layer width and droplet contact angle. The results reveal that the aggregation of argon molecules on substrates not only depending on the level of hydrophobicity but also determined by the competition between gas-solid and water-solid interaction as well as water molecular structure near the surface. In addition, the surface nanobubble is always observed coexisted with the gas enrichment layer. The water structure adjacent to water-gas and water-solid interfaces also plays an important factor in gas out-flux and gas aggregation, respectively. The quasi-2D simulation shows that only a slight difference in the curved argon-water interface from the plane interface which suggests no noticeable obstructing effect on gas outflux from the gas-water interfacial water networks.

Keywords: gas aggregation, interfacial nanobubble, molecular dynamics simulation, wettability

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Authors: Patrick Oehler, Nicholas Folger

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Following a new public management approach, Germany has widely reformed its higher education system around the turn of the millennium. Aimed at preparing the country’s publicly funded universities and applied science colleges for a century of glory, the reforms led to the introduction of rigid performance measurement and management practices, which disrupted the inert system on all levels. Yet, many of the new policies met significant resistance, and some of them had to be reversed over time. Ever since Germany has struggled to find a balance between its pre- and its post-millennial approach to performance measurement and management. This contribution combines insights of a joint research project, which was created and funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research with the aim to better understand the effects of its performance measurement and management policies, including those the ministry had implemented over the previous decades. The research project combines researchers from 17 German research institutions who employed a wide range of theories from various disciplines and very diverse research methods to explain performance measurement and management and their consequences on the behavior of various stakeholders in higher education systems. In these projects, performance measurement and management have been researched from three angles—education, research, and third mission. The collaborative project differentiated functional and dysfunctional elements of common performance measurement and management practices, and identified key problems with these practices, such as (1) oversimplification of performance indicators, (2) ‘overmeasurement’ of performance in general, (3) excessive use of quantitative indicators, and (4), a myopic focus on research-focused indicators and a negligence of measures targeting education and third mission. To address these issues, the collaborative project developed alternative approaches to performance measurement and management, including suggestions for qualitative performance measures, improved supervision, review, and evaluations methods, and recommendations how to better balance education, research, and third mission. The authors would like to share the rich findings of the joint research project with an international audience and discuss their implications for alternative higher education systems.

Keywords: performance measurement, performance management, new public management, performance evaluation

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Authors: Stephanie Giordano, Rosa Plasencia

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In the USA, in 2013, public service systems such as Medicaid, aging, and disability systems undertook an effort to measure the quality of service delivery by examining the experiences and outcomes of those receiving public services. The goal of this effort was to develop a survey to measure the experiences and outcomes of those receiving public services, with the goal of measuring system performance for quality improvement. The performance indicators were developed through with input from directors of state aging and disability service systems, along with experts and stakeholders in the field across the United States. This effort, National Core Indicators –Aging and Disabilities (NCI-AD), grew out of National Core Indicators –Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities, an effort to measure developmental disability (DD) systems across the States. The survey tool and administration protocol underwent multiple rounds of testing and revision between 2013 and 2015. The measures in the final tool – called the Adult Consumer Survey (ACS) – emphasize not just important indicators of healthcare access and personal safety but also includes indicators of system quality based on person-centered outcomes. These measures indicate whether service systems support older adults and people with disabilities to live where they want, maintain relationships and engage in their communities and have choice and control in their everyday lives. Launched in 2015, the NCI-AD Adult Consumer Survey is now used in 23 states in the US. Surveys are conducted by NCI-AD trained surveyors via direct conversation with a person receiving public long-term services and supports (LTSS). Until 2020, surveys were only conducted in person. However, after a pilot to test the reliability of videoconference and telephone survey modes, these modes were adopted as an acceptable practice. The nature of the survey is that of a “guided conversation” survey administration allows for surveyor to use wording and terminology that is best understand by the person surveyed. The survey includes a subset of questions that may be answered by a proxy respondent who knows the person well if the person is receiving services in unable to provide valid responses on their own. Surveyors undergo a standardized training on survey administration to ensure the fidelity of survey administration. In addition to the main survey section, a Background Information section collects data on personal and service-related characteristics of the person receiving services; these data are typically collected through state administrative record. This information is helps provide greater context around the characteristics of people receiving services. It has also been used in conjunction with outcomes measures to look at disparity (including by race and ethnicity, gender, disability, and living arrangements). These measures of quality are critical for public service delivery systems to understand the unique needs of the population of older adults and improving the lives of older adults as well as people with disabilities. Participating states may use these data to identify areas for quality improvement within their service delivery systems, to advocate for specific policy change, and to better understand the experiences of specific populations of people served.

Keywords: quality of life, long term services and supports, person-centered practices, aging and disability research, survey methodology

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