Search results for: bayesian parameter identification

Authors: Anupuma Raina, Ajay Parkash

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In forensic investigation, DNA analysis helps in the identification of a particular individual under investigation. A set of Short Tandem Repeats loci are widely used for individualization at a molecular level in forensic testing. STRs with tetrameric repeats of DNA are highly polymorphic and widely used for forensic DNA analysis. Identification of an individual became challenging for forensic examiners after Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation. HSCT is a well-accepted and life-saving treatment to treat malignant and nonmalignant diseases. It involves the administration of healthy donor stem cells to replace the patient’s own unhealthy stem cells. A successful HSCT results in complete donor-derived cells in a patient’s hematopoiesis and hence have the capability to change the genetic makeup of the patient. Although an individual who has undergone HSCT and then committed a crime is a very rare situation, but not impossible. Keeping such a situation in mind, various biological samples like blood, buccal swab, and hair follicle were collected and studied after a certain interval of time after HSCT. Blood was collected from both the patient and the donor before the transplant. The DNA profile of both was analyzed using a short tandem repeat kit for autosomal chromosomes. Among all exhibits studied, only hair follicles were found to be the most suitable biological exhibit, as no donor DNA profile was observed for up to 90 days of study.

Keywords: chimerism, HSCT, STRs analysis, forensic identification

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Authors: Lotfi O. Gargab, Ruichong R. Zhang

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A wave-based framework is presented for modeling seismic motion in multistory buildings and using measured response for system identification which can be utilized to extract important information regarding structure integrity. With one pair of building response at two locations, a generalized model response is formulated based on wave propagation features and expressed as frequency and time response functions denoted, respectively, as GFRF and GIRF. In particular, GIRF is fundamental in tracking arrival times of impulsive wave motion initiated at response level which is dependent on local model properties. Matching model and measured-structure responses can help in identifying model parameters and infer building properties. To show the effectiveness of this approach, the Millikan Library in Pasadena, California is identified with recordings of the Yorba Linda earthquake of September 3, 2002.

Keywords: system identification, continuous-discrete mass modeling, damage detection, post-earthquake

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Authors: Masoud Sheidai

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Biologists with a special field of population genetics and phylogeny have different research tasks such as populations’ genetic variability and divergence, species relatedness, the evolution of genetic and morphological characters, and identification of DNA SNPs with adaptive potential. To tackle these problems and reach a concise conclusion, they must use the proper and efficient statistical and bioinformatic methods as well as suitable genetic and morphological characteristics. In recent years application of different bioinformatic and statistical methods, which are based on various well-documented assumptions, are the proper analytical tools in the hands of researchers. The species delineation is usually carried out with the use of different clustering methods like K-means clustering based on proper distance measures according to the studied features of organisms. A well-defined species are assumed to be separated from the other taxa by molecular barcodes. The species relationships are studied by using molecular markers, which are analyzed by different analytical methods like multidimensional scaling (MDS) and principal coordinate analysis (PCoA). The species population structuring and genetic divergence are usually investigated by PCoA and PCA methods and a network diagram. These are based on bootstrapping of data. The Association of different genes and DNA sequences to ecological and geographical variables is determined by LFMM (Latent factor mixed model) and redundancy analysis (RDA), which are based on Bayesian and distance methods. Molecular and morphological differentiating characters in the studied species may be identified by linear discriminant analysis (DA) and discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC). We shall illustrate these methods and related conclusions by giving examples from different edible and medicinal plant species.

Keywords: GWAS analysis, K-Means clustering, LFMM, multidimensional scaling, redundancy analysis

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Authors: Sharon Li, Zhonghang Xia

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Post-database search is an essential phase in peptide identification using tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) to refine peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) produced by database search engines. These engines frequently face difficulty differentiating between correct and incorrect peptide assignments. Despite advances in statistical and machine learning methods aimed at improving the accuracy of peptide identification, challenges remain in selecting critical features for these models. In this study, two machine learning models—a random forest tree and a support vector machine—were applied to three datasets to enhance PSMs. SHAP values were utilized to determine the significance of each feature within the models. The experimental results indicate that the random forest model consistently outperformed the SVM across all datasets. Further analysis of SHAP values revealed that the importance of features varies depending on the dataset, indicating that a feature's role in model predictions can differ significantly. This variability in feature selection can lead to substantial differences in model performance, with false discovery rate (FDR) differences exceeding 50% between different feature combinations. Through SHAP value analysis, the most effective feature combinations were identified, significantly enhancing model performance.

Keywords: peptide identification, SHAP value, feature selection, random forest tree, support vector machine

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Authors: Iis Diatin, Yani Hadiroseyani, Muhammad Mujahid, Ahmad Teduh, Juang R. Matangaran

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One of silica quarry managed by a mining company is located at Sukabumi District of West Java Province Indonesia with an area of approximately 70 hectares. Since 2013 this company stopped the mining activities. The company tries to restore the ecosystem post-mining with rehabilitation activities such as reclamation and revegetation of their ex-mining area. After three years planting the area the trees grown well. Not only planting some tree species but also some cover crop has covered the soil surface. There are two settling ponds located in the middle of the ex-mining area. Those settling pond were built in order to prevent the effect of acid mine drainage. Acid mine drainage (AMD) or the acidic water is created when sulphide minerals are exposed to air and water and through a natural chemical reaction produce sulphuric acid. AMD is the main pollutant at the open pit mining. The objective of the research was to analyze the effect of revegetation on water quality change at the settling pond. The physical and chemical of water quality parameter were measured and analysed at site and at the laboratory. Physical parameter such as temperature, turbidity and total organic matter were analyse. Also heavy metal and some other chemical parameter such as dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, pH, total ammonia nitrogen, nitrate and nitrite were analysed. The result showed that the acidity of first settling pond was higher than that of the second settling pond. Both settling pond water’s contained heavy metal. The turbidity and total organic matter were the parameter of water quality which become better after revegetation.

Keywords: acid mine drainage, ex-mining area, revegetation, settling pond, water quality

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Authors: Shumaila Ehtisham

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In Statistical Distribution Theory, considering an additional parameter to classical distributions is a usual practice. In this study, a new distribution referred to as α-Power Pareto distribution is introduced by including an extra parameter. Several properties of the proposed distribution including explicit expressions for the moment generating function, mode, quantiles, entropies and order statistics are obtained. Unknown parameters have been estimated by using maximum likelihood estimation technique. Two real datasets have been considered to examine the usefulness of the proposed distribution. It has been observed that α-Power Pareto distribution outperforms while compared to different variants of Pareto distribution on the basis of model selection criteria.

Keywords: α-power transformation, maximum likelihood estimation, moment generating function, Pareto distribution

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Authors: R. M. Chandima Ratnayake, Daniel Dyakov

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Super steel materials play vital role in construction and fabrication of structural, piping and pipeline components. They enable to minimize the life cycle costs in assuring the integrity of onshore and offshore operating systems. In this context, Duplex stainless steel (DSS) material related welding on constructions and fabrications play a significant role in maintaining and assuring integrity at an optimal expenditure over the life cycle of production and process systems as well as associated structures. In DSS welding, the factors such as gap geometry, shielding gas supply rate, welding current, and type of the welding process play a vital role on the final joint performance. Hence, an experimental investigation has been performed using engineering robust design approach (ERDA) to investigate the optimal settings that generate optimal super DSS (i.e. UNS S32750) joint performance. This manuscript illustrates the mathematical approach and experimental design, optimal parameter settings and results of verification experiment.

Keywords: duplex stainless steel welding, engineering robust design, mathematical framework, optimal parameter settings

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Aadhya Kaul, Gautam Manocha, Preeti Nagrath

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Our environment comprises of a wide variety of plants that are similar to each other and sometimes the similarity between the plants makes the identification process tedious thus increasing the workload of the botanist all over the world. Now all the botanists cannot be accessible all the time for such laborious plant identification; therefore, there is an urge for a quick classification model. Also, along with the identification of the plants, it is also necessary to classify the plant as healthy or not as for a good lifestyle, humans require good food and this food comes from healthy plants. A large number of techniques have been applied to classify the plants as healthy or diseased in order to provide the solution. This paper proposes one such method known as anomaly detection using autoencoders using a set of collections of leaves. In this method, an autoencoder model is built using Keras and then the reconstruction of the original images of the leaves is done and the threshold loss is found in order to classify the plant leaves as healthy or diseased. A dataset of plant leaves is considered to judge the reconstructed performance by convolutional autoencoders and the average accuracy obtained is 71.55% for the purpose.

Keywords: convolutional autoencoder, anomaly detection, web application, FLASK

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Authors: Ali Al-Ghalib, Fouad Mohammad

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The identification of damage in reinforced concrete structures subjected to incremental cracking performance exploiting vibration data is recognized as a challenging topic in the published and heavily cited literature. Therefore, this paper attempts to shine light on the extent of dynamic methods when applied to reinforced concrete beams simulated with various scenarios of defects. For this purpose, three different reinforced concrete beams are tested through the course of the study. The three beams are loaded statically to failure in incremental successive load cycles and later rehabilitated. After each static load stage, the beams are tested under free-free support condition using experimental modal analysis. The beams were all of the same length and cross-sectional area (2.0x0.14x0.09)m, but they were different in concrete compressive strength and the type of damage presented. The experimental modal parameters as damage identification parameters were showed computationally expensive, time consuming and require substantial inputs and considerable expertise. Nonetheless, they were proved plausible for the condition monitoring of the current case study as well as structural changes in the course of progressive loads. It was accentuated that a satisfactory localization and quantification for structural changes (Level 2 and Level 3 of damage identification problem) can only be achieved reasonably through considering frequencies and mode shapes of a system in a proper analytical model. A convenient post analysis process for various datasets of vibration measurements for the three beams is conducted in order to extract, check and correlate the basic modal parameters; namely, natural frequency, modal damping and mode shapes. The results of the extracted modal parameters and their combination are utilized and discussed in this research as quantification parameters.

Keywords: experimental modal analysis, damage identification, structural health monitoring, reinforced concrete beam

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Authors: Eva Savy, Anthony Ruiz

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In extrusion blow molding, there is great variability in product quality due to the sensitivity of the machine settings. These variations lead to unnecessary rejects and loss of time. Yet production control is a major challenge for companies in this sector to remain competitive within their market. Current quality control methods only apply to finished products (vision control, leak test...). It has been shown that material melt temperature, blowing pressure, and ambient temperature have a significant impact on the variability of product quality. Since blowing is a key step in the process, we have studied this parameter in this paper. The objective is to determine if airflow analysis allows the identification of quality problems before the full completion of the manufacturing process. We conducted tests to determine if it was possible to identify a leakage defect and an obstructed defect, two common defects on products. The results showed that it was possible to identify a leakage defect by airflow analysis.

Keywords: extrusion blow molding, signal, sensor, defects, detection

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Authors: Wookyong Kwon, Sangmoon Lee

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In this paper, a sampled-data model predictive tracking control method is presented for mobile robots which is modeled as constrained continuous-time linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. The presented sampled-data predictive controller is designed by linear matrix inequality approach. Based on the input delay approach, a controller design condition is derived by constructing a new Lyapunov function. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: model predictive control, sampled-data control, linear parameter varying systems, LPV

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Dodi Ikhsanshaleh

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When subjected to dynamic load, foundation oscillates in the way that depends on the soil behaviour, the geometry and inertia of the foundation and the dynamic exctation. The practical guideline to analysis block-type foundation excitated by dynamic load from vibrating machine is presented. The analysis use Lumped Mass Parameter Method to express dynamic properties such as stiffness and damping of soil. The numerical examples are performed on design block-type foundation supporting gas turbine compressor which is important equipment package in gas processing plant

Keywords: block foundation, dynamic load, lumped mass parameter

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Authors: R. Biondi, G. Dys, G. Ferone, T. Renard, M. Zysman

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This paper describes an automated implementable system for impulsive signals detection and recognition. The system uses a Digital Signal Processing device for the detection and identification process. Here the system analyses the signals in real time in order to produce a particular response if needed. The system analyses the signals in real time in order to produce a specific output if needed. Detection is achieved through normalizing the inputs and comparing the read signals to a dynamic threshold and thus avoiding detections linked to loud or fluctuating environing noise. Identification is done through neuronal network algorithms. As a setup our system can receive signals to “learn” certain patterns. Through “learning” the system can recognize signals faster, inducing flexibility to new patterns similar to those known. Sound is captured through a simple jack input, and could be changed for an enhanced recording surface such as a wide-area recorder. Furthermore a communication module can be added to the apparatus to send alerts to another interface if needed.

Keywords: sound detection, impulsive signal, background noise, neural network

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Authors: Yaser Miaji, Mohammad Sabbagh

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Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is a technology which shares a similar concept with bar code. With RFID, the electromagnetic or electrostatic coupling in the RF portion of the electromagnetic spectrum is used to transmit signals. Supply chain management is aimed to keep going long-term performance of individual companies and the overall supply chain by maximizing customer satisfaction with minimum costs. One of the major issues in the supply chain management is product loss or shrinkage. In order to overcome this problem, this system which uses Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology will be able to RFID track and identify where losses are occurring and enable effective traceability. RFID brings a new dimension to supply chain management by providing a more efficient way of being able to identify and track items at the various stages throughout the supply chain. This system has been developed and tested to prove that RFID technology can be used to improve traceability in supply chain at low cost. Due to its simplicity in interface program and database management system using Visual Basic and MS Excel or MS Access the system can be more affordable and implemented even by small and medium scale industries.

Keywords: supply chain, RFID, tractability, radio frequency identification

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Authors: Eudjen Cinc

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The contemporary society, which is, whether we like it or not, oriented towards utilitarianism, pragmatics and professional flexibility, lives in a certain paradox. On the one hand, at least declaratively, the accent of modern society is on knowledge; knowledge is even considered to be a commodity, the popularity of education is increased as the only means of survival in the market-oriented world, while on the other hand modern society is moving towards simplification and decreasing the amount of information and areas which are considered necessary in the generally excepted concept of education. We cannot talk about the preschool teacher profession without mentioning work with gifted children. The preschool teacher knowing the characteristics of gifted children is of utmost importance because their early identification and professional guidance are of cardinal importance for the direction in which the children will develop. When we talk about musical ability, in the first phase, the role of preschool teachers in the identification and stimulation of gifted children naturally refers to monitoring children’s musical manifestation. The identification process and work with the gifted presupposes a good relationship with the family, synergy of these two important influences in the child’s education and upbringing.

Keywords: music education, gifted children, methodology, kindergarten

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Authors: Ke Lin, Steve Wu Qing Yang, Zhang Nan

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The medicine and drugs has in the past been manufactured to the final products and then used laboratory analysis to verify their quality. However the industry needs crucially a monitoring technique for the final batch to batch quality check. The introduction of process analytical technology (PAT) provides an incentive to obtain real-time information about drugs on the production line, with the following optical techniques being considered: near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy and imaging, mid-infrared spectroscopy with the use of chemometric techniques to quantify the final product. However, presents problems in that the spectra obtained will consist of many combination and overtone bands of the fundamental vibrations observed, making analysis difficult. In this work, we describe a non-destructive system and method for capsule and liquid medicine identification, more particularly, using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy and/or designed terahertz portable system for identifying different types of medicine in the package of capsule or in liquid medicine bottles. The target medicine can be detected directly, non-destructively and non-invasively.

Keywords: terahertz, non-destructive, non-invasive, chemical identification

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Authors: Dehini Rachid, Ferdi Brahim

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The shunt active power filter (SAPF) is not destined only to improve the power factor, but also to compensate the unwanted harmonic currents produced by nonlinear loads. This paper presents a SAPF with identification and control method based on artificial neural network (ANN). To identify harmonics, many techniques are used, among them the conventional p-q theory and the relatively recent one the artificial neural network method. It is difficult to get satisfied identification and control characteristics by using a normal (ANN) due to the nonlinearity of the system (SAPF + fast nonlinear load variations). This work is an attempt to undertake a systematic study of the problem to equip the (SAPF) with the harmonics identification and DC link voltage control method based on (ANN). The latter has been applied to the (SAPF) with fast nonlinear load variations. The results of computer simulations and experiments are given, which can confirm the feasibility of the proposed active power filter.

Keywords: artificial neural networks (ANN), p-q theory, harmonics, total harmonic distortion

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Authors: Baya Takhedmit, Karim Abbas, Sofiane Ouazine

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The vacations queues are often employed to model many real situations such as computer systems, communication networks, manufacturing and production systems, transportation systems and so forth. These queueing models are solved at fixed parameters values. However, the parameter values themselves are determined from a finite number of observations and hence have uncertainty associated with them (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper, we consider the M/G/1/N queue with server vacation and exhaustive discipline where we assume that the vacation parameter values have uncertainty. We use the Taylor series expansions approach to estimate the expectation and variance of model output, due to epistemic uncertainties in the model input parameters.

Keywords: epistemic uncertainty, M/G/1/N queue with vacations, non-parametric sensitivity analysis, Taylor series expansion

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Authors: Hung Chih Hsieh, Cheng Hao Chang, Yun Hsiang Chang, Yu Lin Chang

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In the applications of the spectrometer, the stray light that comes from the environment affects the measurement results a lot. Hence, environment and instrument quality control for the stray reduction is critical for the spectral reflectance measurement. In this paper, a simple and practical method has been developed to correct a spectrometer's response for measurement errors arising from the environment's and instrument's stray light. A sinusoidal modulated light intensity signal was incident on a tested sample, and then the reflected light was collected by the spectrometer. Since a sinusoidal signal modulated the incident light, the reflected light also had a modulated frequency which was the same as the incident signal. Using the three-parameter sine curve fitting algorithm, we can extract the primary reflectance signal from the total measured signal, which contained the primary reflectance signal and the stray light from the environment. The spectra similarity between the extracted spectra by this proposed method with extreme environment stray light is 99.98% similar to the spectra without the environment's stray light. This result shows that we can measure the reflectance spectra without the affection of the environment's stray light.

Keywords: spectrometer, stray light, three-parameter sine curve fitting, spectra extraction

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Authors: Graziella Ziino, Filippo Giarratana, Stefania Maria Marotta, Alessandro Giuffrida, Antonio Panebianco

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In Europe, North America and Japan, campylobacteriosis is one of the leading food-borne bacterial illnesses, often related to the consumption of poultry meats and/or by-products. The aim of this study was the evaluation of Campylobacter contamination of poultry meats marketed in Sicily (Italy) using both traditional methods and Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). MALDI-TOF MS is considered a promising rapid (less than 1 hour) identification method for food borne pathogens bacteria. One hundred chicken and turkey meat preparations (no. 68 hamburgers, no. 21 raw sausages, no. 4 meatballs and no. 7 meat rolls) were taken from different butcher’s shops and large scale retailers and submitted to detection/enumeration of Campylobacter spp. according to EN ISO 10272-1:2006 and EN ISO 10272-2:2006. Campylobacter spp. was detected with general low counts in 44 samples (44%), of which 30 from large scale retailers and 14 from butcher’s shops. Chicken meats were significantly more contaminated than turkey meats. Among the preparations, Campylobacter spp. was found in 85.71% of meat rolls, 50% of meatballs, 44.12% of hamburgers and 28.57% of raw sausages. A total of 100 strains, 2-3 from each positive samples, were isolated for the identification by phenotypic, biomolecular and MALDI-TOF MS methods. C. jejuni was the predominant strains (63%), followed by C. coli (33%) and C. lari (4%). MALDI-TOF MS correctly identified 98% of the strains at the species level, only 1% of the tested strains were not identified. In the last 1%, a mixture of two different species was mixed in the same sample and MALDI-TOF MS correctly identified at least one of the strains. Considering the importance of rapid identification of pathogens in the food matrix, this method is highly recommended for the identification of suspected colonies of Campylobacteria.

Keywords: campylobacter spp., Food Microbiology, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, rapid microbial identification

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Authors: Brian E. Usibe

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This paper addresses the problem of a linear crack located in the middle of a homogeneous elastic media under normal tension-compression harmonic loading. The problem of deformation of the fractured media is solved using the direct finite element numerical procedure, including the analysis of the dynamic field variables of the problem. A finite element algorithm that satisfies the unilateral Signorini contact constraint is also presented for the solution of the contact interaction of the crack faces and how this accounts for the qualitative and quantitative changes in the solution when determining the dynamic fracture parameter.

Keywords: harmonic loading, linear crack, fracture parameter, wave number, FEA, contact interaction

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Kailash Ghimire, Manoj Thapa

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This study focuses on early identification of deficiencies in pre-required areas of students who are enrolled in College Algebra and Calculus I classes. The students were given pre-diagnostic tests on the first day of the class before they are provided with the syllabus. The tests consist of prerequisite, uniform and advanced content outlined by the University System of Georgia (USG). The results show that 48% of students in College Algebra are lacking prerequisite skills while 52% of Calculus I students are lacking prerequisite skills but, interestingly these students are prior exposed to uniform content and advanced content. The study is still in progress and this paper contains the outcome from Fall 2017 and Spring 2018. In this paper, early intervention used in these classes: two days vs three days meeting a week and students’ self-assessment using exam wrappers and their effectiveness on students’ learning will also be discussed. A result of this study shows that there is an improvement on Drop, Fail and Withdraw (DFW) rates by 7%-10% compared to those in previous semesters.

Keywords: student at risk, diagnostic tests, identification, intervention, normalization gain, validity of tests

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Authors: Najib K. Dankadai, Ahmad 'Athif Mohd Faudzi, Khairuddin Osman, Muhammad Rusydi Muhammad Razif, IIi Najaa Aimi Mohd Nordin

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Researches in soft actuators are now growing rapidly because of their adequacy to be applied in sectors like medical, agriculture, biological and welfare. This paper presents system identification (SI) and control of the force generated by a two chambers pneumatic soft actuator (PSA). A force mathematical model for the actuator was identified experimentally using data acquisition card and MATLAB SI toolbox. Two control techniques; a predictive functional control (PFC) and conventional proportional integral and derivative (PID) schemes are proposed and compared based on the identified model for the soft actuator flexible mechanism. Results of this study showed that both of the proposed controllers ensure accurate tracking when the closed loop system was tested with the step, sinusoidal and multi step reference input through MATLAB simulation although the PFC provides a better response than the PID.

Keywords: predictive functional control (PFC), proportional integral and derivative (PID), soft actuator, system identification

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Sohaibullah Zarghoon, Syed Yousaf, Cyril Belavy, Stanislav Duris, Samuel Emebu, Radek Matusu

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Induction heating is extensively employed in industrial furnaces due to its swift response and high energy efficiency. Designing and optimising these furnaces necessitates the use of computer-aided simulations. This study aims to develop an accurate temperature field model for a rectangular steel billet in an induction furnace by leveraging various parameters in COMSOL Multiphysics software. The simulation analysis incorporated temperature dynamics, considering skin depth, temperature-dependent, and constant parameters of the steel billet. The resulting data-driven model was transformed into a state-space model using MATLAB's System Identification Toolbox for the purpose of designing a linear quadratic regulator (LQR). This controller was successfully implemented to regulate the core temperature of the billet from 1000°C to 1200°C, utilizing the distributed parameter system circuit.

Keywords: induction heating, LQR controller, skin depth, temperature field

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

Abstract:

The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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