Search results for: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)

Authors: Guldana Zhigerbayeva, Ming Yang

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Transportation of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) is inevitable in the process industries. The statistics show a significant number of accidents has occurred during the transportation of HAZMAT. This makes risk management of HAZMAT transportation an important topic. The tree-based methods including fault-trees, event-trees and cause-consequence analysis, and Bayesian network, have been applied to risk management of HAZMAT transportation. However, there is limited work on the development of a systematic approach. The existing approaches fail to build up the linkages between the regulatory requirements and the safety measures development. The analysis of historical data from the past accidents’ report databases would limit our focus on the specific incidents and their specific causes. Thus, we may overlook some essential elements in risk management, including regulatory compliance, field expert opinions, and suggestions. A systematic approach is needed to translate the regulatory requirements of HAZMAT transportation into specified safety measures (both technical and administrative) to support the risk management process. This study aims to first adapt the House of Quality (HoQ) to House of Safety (HoS) and proposes a new approach- Safety Function Deployment (SFD). The results of SFD will be used in a multi-criteria decision-support system to develop find an optimal route for HazMats transportation. The proposed approach will be demonstrated through a hypothetical transportation case in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: hazardous materials, risk assessment, risk management, quality function deployment

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for the classification of an unstructured format description for identification of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support file format selection with just the unstructured text description that comprises the most important format features for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the file format indentification method employs file format classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with an estimation of required file format. Our goal is to make use of a format specification knowledge base aggregated from a different Web sources in order to select file format for a particular institution. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert, the file format for his institution. The proposed methods facilitate the selection of file format and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and specifications of file formats. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the file formats is presented as a file format vocabulary that comprises most common terms that are characteristic for all researched formats. The goal is to suggest a particular file format based on this vocabulary for analysis by an expert. The sample file format calculation and the calculation results including probabilities are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: data mining, digital libraries, digital preservation, file format

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Authors: Mohammed Wadi, Bedri Kekezoglu, Mustafa Baysal, Mehmet Rida Tur, Abdulfetah Shobole

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This paper investigates the technical evaluation of the wind potential for present and future investments in Turkey taking into account the feasibility of sites, installments, operation, and maintenance. This evaluation based on the hourly measured wind speed data for the three years 2008–2010 at 30 m height for Çatalca district. These data were obtained from national meteorology station in Istanbul–Republic of Turkey are analyzed in order to evaluate the feasibility of wind power potential and to assure supreme assortment of wind turbines installing for the area of interest. Furthermore, the data are extrapolated and analyzed at 60 m and 80 m regarding the variability of roughness factor. Weibull bi-parameter probability function is used to approximate monthly and annually wind potential and power density based on three calculation methods namely, the approximated, the graphical and the energy pattern factor methods. The annual mean wind power densities were to be 400.31, 540.08 and 611.02 W/m² for 30, 60, and 80 m heights respectively. Simulation results prove that the analyzed area is an appropriate place for constructing large-scale wind farms.

Keywords: wind potential in Turkey, Weibull bi-parameter probability function, the approximated method, the graphical method, the energy pattern factor method, capacity factor

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Authors: Anthony Townsend, Robyn Fasser

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While complete objectivity is a desirable scientific position from which to conduct a care and contact evaluation (CCE), it is precisely the recognition that we are inherently incapable of operating objectively that is the foundation of ethical practice and skilled assessment. Drawing upon recent research from Daniel Kahneman (2021) on the differences between noise and bias, as well as different inherent biases collectively termed “The Elephant in the Brain” by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson (2019) from Oxford University, this presentation addresses both the various ways in which our judgments, perceptions and even procedures can be distorted and contaminated while conducting a CCE, but also considers the value of second order cybernetics and the psychodynamic concept of ‘ambivalence’ as a conceptual basis to inform our assessment methodologies to limit such errors or at least better identify them. Both a conceptual framework for ambivalence, our higher-order capacity to allow for the convergence and consideration of multiple emotional experiences and cognitive perceptions to inform our reasoning, and a practical methodology for assessment relying on data triangulation, Bayesian inference and hypothesis testing is presented as a means of promoting ethical practice for health care professionals conducting CCEs. An emphasis on widening awareness and perspective, limiting ‘splitting’, is demonstrated both in how this form of emotional processing plays out in alienating dynamics in families as well as the assessment thereof. In addressing this concept, this presentation aims to illuminate the value of ambivalence as foundational to ethical practice for assessors.

Keywords: ambivalence, forensic, psychology, noise, bias, ethics

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Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

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For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

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Authors: Sara ElElimy, Samir Moustafa

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Mobile network operators start to face many challenges in the digital era, especially with high demands from customers. Since mobile network operators are considered a source of big data, traditional techniques are not effective with new era of big data, Internet of things (IoT) and 5G; as a result, handling effectively different big datasets becomes a vital task for operators with the continuous growth of data and moving from long term evolution (LTE) to 5G. So, there is an urgent need for effective Big data analytics to predict future demands, traffic, and network performance to full fill the requirements of the fifth generation of mobile network technology. In this paper, we introduce data science techniques using machine learning and deep learning algorithms: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Bayesian-based curve fitting, and recurrent neural network (RNN) are employed for a data-driven application to mobile network operators. The main framework included in models are identification parameters of each model, estimation, prediction, and final data-driven application of this prediction from business and network performance applications. These models are applied to Telecom Italia Big Data challenge call detail records (CDRs) datasets. The performance of these models is found out using a specific well-known evaluation criteria shows that ARIMA (machine learning-based model) is more accurate as a predictive model in such a dataset than the RNN (deep learning model).

Keywords: big data analytics, machine learning, CDRs, 5G

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Y. Mehdipour, S. Ebrahimi, A. Jahanpour, F. Seyedzaei, B. Sabayan, A. Karimi, H. Amirifard

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Ischemic stroke is one of the common reasons for disability and mortality. The fourth leading cause of death in the world and the third in some other sources. Only 1/3 of the patients with ischemic stroke fully recover, 1/3 of them end in permanent disability and 1/3 face death. Thus, the use of predictive models to predict stroke has a vital role in reducing the complications and costs related to this disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to specify the effective factors and predict ischemic stroke with the help of DM methods. The present study was a descriptive-analytic study. The population was 213 cases from among patients referring to Ali ibn Abi Talib (AS) Hospital in Zahedan. Data collection tool was a checklist with the validity and reliability confirmed. This study used DM algorithms of decision tree for modeling. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-19 and SPSS Modeler 14.2. The results of the comparison of algorithms showed that CHAID algorithm with 95.7% accuracy has the best performance. Moreover, based on the model created, factors such as anemia, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, transient ischemic attacks, coronary artery disease, and atherosclerosis are the most effective factors in stroke. Decision tree algorithms, especially CHAID algorithm, have acceptable precision and predictive ability to determine the factors affecting ischemic stroke. Thus, by creating predictive models through this algorithm, will play a significant role in decreasing the mortality and disability caused by ischemic stroke.

Keywords: data mining, ischemic stroke, decision tree, Bayesian network

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Authors: Mostafa Aminzadeh, Min Deng

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Modeling loss data is an important part of actuarial science. Actuaries use models to predict future losses and manage financial risk, which can be beneficial for marketing purposes. In the insurance industry, small claims happen frequently while large claims are rare. Traditional distributions such as Normal, Exponential, and inverse-Gaussian are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often show skewness and fat tails. Several authors have studied classical and Bayesian inference for parameters of composite distributions, such as Exponential-Pareto, Weibull-Pareto, and Inverse Gamma-Pareto. These models separate small to moderate losses from large losses using a threshold parameter. This research introduces a computational approach using a nonlinear regression model for loss data that relies on multiple predictors. Simulation studies were conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimation method. The simulations confirmed that the proposed method provides precise estimates for regression parameters. It's important to note that this approach can be applied to datasets if goodness-of-fit tests confirm that the composite distribution under study fits the data well. To demonstrate the computations, a real data set from the insurance industry is analyzed. A Mathematica code uses the Fisher information algorithm as an iteration method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of regression parameters.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, fisher scoring method, non-linear regression models, composite distributions

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Ashok V. Sutagundar, Sunilkumar S. Manvi

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Energy, delay and bandwidth are the prime issues of wireless sensor network (WSN). Energy usage optimization and efficient bandwidth utilization are important issues in WSN. Event triggered data aggregation facilitates such optimal tasks for event affected area in WSN. Reliable delivery of the critical information to sink node is also a major challenge of WSN. To tackle these issues, we propose an event driven dynamic clustering and data aggregation scheme for WSN that enhances the life time of the network by minimizing redundant data transmission. The proposed scheme operates as follows: (1) Whenever the event is triggered, event triggered node selects the cluster head. (2) Cluster head gathers data from sensor nodes within the cluster. (3) Cluster head node identifies and classifies the events out of the collected data using Bayesian classifier. (4) Aggregation of data is done using statistical method. (5) Cluster head discovers the paths to the sink node using residual energy, path distance and bandwidth. (6) If the aggregated data is critical, cluster head sends the aggregated data over the multipath for reliable data communication. (7) Otherwise aggregated data is transmitted towards sink node over the single path which is having the more bandwidth and residual energy. The performance of the scheme is validated for various WSN scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of aggregation time, cluster formation time and energy consumed for aggregation.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, dynamic clustering, data aggregation, wireless communication

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: G. V. Siva Krishna Rao, B. Srinivasa Rao

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Electrical energy is vital in every aspect of day-to-day life. Keen interest is taken on all possible sources of energy from which it can be generated and this led to the encouragement of generating electrical power using renewable energy resources such as solar, tidal waves and wind energy. Due to the increasing interest on renewable sources in recent times, the studies on integration of distributed generation to the power grid have rapidly increased. Distributed Generation (DG) is a promising solution to many power system problems such as voltage regulation, power loss and reduction in operational cost, etc. To reduce production cost, it is important to minimize the losses by determining the location and size of local generators to be placed in the radial distribution systems. In this paper, reduction of production cost by optimal size of DG unit operated at optimal power factor is dealt. The optimal size of the DG unit is calculated analytically using approximate reasoning suitable nodes and DG placement to minimize production cost with minimum loss is determined by fuzzy technique. Total Cost of Power generation is compared with and without DG unit for 1 year duration. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and is tested on IEEE 33 bus system and the results are presented.

Keywords: distributed generation, operational cost, exact loss formula, optimum size, optimum location

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Authors: Ping-Lun Jiang, Hung-Jun Lin, Shen-Fu Lin, Mei-Yin Chien, Ting-Wei Li, Chun-Han Lin, Der-Zen Liu

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Mucosal vaccine induces both mucosal (secretory IgA) and systemic immune responses and it is considered an ideal vaccination strategy for prevention of infectious diseases. One important point to be considered in mucosal vaccination is effective antigen delivery system which can manage effective delivery of antigen to antigen-presenting cells (APCs) of mucosal. In the present study, cationic gelatin nanoparticles were prepared as ideal carriers for more efficient antigen delivery. The average diameter of cationic gelatin nanoparticle was approximate 190 nm, and the zeta potential was about +45 mV, then ovalbumin (OVA) was physically absorbed onto cationic gelatin nanoparticle. The OVA absorption rate was near 95% the zeta potential was about +20 mV. We show that cationic gelatin nanoparticle effectively facilitated antigen uptake by mice bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (mBMDCs) and RAW264.7 cells and induced higher levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines. C57BL/6 mice twice immunized intranasally with OVA-absorbed cationic gelatin nanoparticle induced high levels of OVA-specific IgG in the serum and IgA in their in the nasal and lung wash fluid. These results indicate that nasal administration of cationic gelatin nanoparticles induced both mucosal and systemic immune responses and cationic gelatin nanoparticles might be a potential antigen delivery carrier for further clinical applications.

Keywords: antigen delivery, antigen-presenting cells, gelatin nanoparticle, mucosal vaccine

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Authors: Siu-Siu Guo, Qingxuan Shi

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In this paper, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems to white noise and colored noise excitations are investigated. By expressing colored noise excitation as a second-order filtered white noise process and introducing colored noise as an additional state variable, the equation of motion for SDOF system under colored noise is then transferred artificially to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) system under white noise excitations. As a consequence, corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation governing the joint probabilistic density function (PDF) of state variables increases to 4-dimension (4-D). Solution procedure and computer programme become much more sophisticated. The exponential-polynomial closure (EPC) method, widely applied for cases of SDOF systems under white noise excitations, is developed and improved for cases of systems under colored noise excitations and for solving the complex 4-D FPK equation. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is performed to test the approximate EPC solutions. Two examples associated with Gaussian and non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are considered. Corresponding band-limited power spectral densities (PSDs) for colored noise excitations are separately given. Numerical studies show that the developed EPC method provides relatively accurate estimates of the stationary probabilistic solutions. Moreover, statistical parameter of mean-up crossing rate (MCR) is taken into account, which is important for reliability and failure analysis.

Keywords: filtered noise, narrow-banded noise, nonlinear dynamic, random vibration

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Authors: Fatiha Besahraoui, M'hamed Guezzoul, Kheira Chebbah, M'hamed Bouslama

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SnO₂ thin film is characterized by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and Photoluminescence Spectroscopies. AFM images show a dense surface of columnar grains with a roughness of 78.69 nm. The PL measurements at 7 K reveal the presence of PL peaks centered in IR and visible regions. They are attributed to radiative transitions via oxygen vacancies, Sn interstitials, and dangling bonds. A bands diagram model is presented with the approximate positions of intrinsic point defect levels in SnO₂ thin films. The integrated PL measurements demonstrate the good thermal stability of our sample, which makes it very useful in optoelectronic devices functioning at room temperature. The unusual behavior of the evolution of PL peaks and their full width at half maximum as a function of temperature indicates the thermal sensitivity of the point defects present in the band gap. The shallower energy levels due to dangling bonds and/or oxygen vacancies are more sensitive to the temperature. However, volume defects like Sn interstitials are thermally stable and constitute deep and stable energy levels for excited electrons. Small redshifting of PL peaks is observed with increasing temperature. This behavior is attributed to the reduction of oxygen vacancies.

Keywords: transparent conducting oxide, photoluminescence, intrinsic point defects, semiconductors, oxygen vacancies

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Authors: Gebreegziabher Hailu

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This paper presents the development of residual power series methods aimed at efficiently solving stiff differential equations, which pose significant challenges in numerical analysis due to their rapid changes in solution behavior. The RPSM is a numerical approach that generates polynomial-based approximate solutions without the need for linearization, discretization, or perturbation techniques, making it straightforward to implement and less prone to computational errors. We introduce an approach that utilizes power series expansions combined with residual minimization techniques to enhance convergence and stability. By analyzing the theoretical foundations of stiffness, we delve into the formulation of the residual power series method, detailing how it effectively captures the dynamics of stiff systems while maintaining computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate the method's superiority in terms of accuracy and computational cost when compared to traditional methods like implicit Runge-Kutta or multistep techniques. We also explore adaptive strategies within our framework to automatically adjust parameters based on the stiffness characteristics of the problem at hand. Ultimately, our findings contribute to the broader toolkit for tackling stiff differential equations, offering a robust alternative that promises to streamline computational workflows in various applied mathematics and engineering contexts.

Keywords: residual power series methods, stiff differential equoations, numerical approach, Runge Kutta methods

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Authors: Damous Mohamed, Zeroudi Nasredine

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High-speed milling of thin-walled parts with complex curvilinear profiles often encounters machining instability, commonly referred to as chatter. This phenomenon arises due to the dynamic interaction between the cutting tool and the part, exacerbated by the part's low rigidity and varying dynamic characteristics along the tool path. This research presents a dynamic model specifically developed to predict machining stability for such curved thin-walled components. The model employs the semi-discretization method, segmenting the tool trajectory into small, straight elements to locally approximate the behavior of an inclined plane. Dynamic characteristics for each segment are extracted through experimental modal analysis and incorporated into the simulation model to generate global stability lobe diagrams. Validation of the model is conducted through cutting tests where acoustic intensity is measured to detect instabilities. The experimental data align closely with the predicted stability limits, confirming the model's accuracy and effectiveness. This work provides a comprehensive approach to enhancing machining stability predictions, thereby improving the efficiency and quality of high-speed milling operations for thin-walled parts.

Keywords: chatter, curved thin-walled part, semi-discretization method, stability lobe diagrams

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Authors: A. Naamane, M. Hasnaoui

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Numerical modeling of fluid flows, whether compressible or incompressible, laminar or turbulent presents a considerable contribution in the scientific and industrial fields. However, the development of an approximate model of a supersonic flow requires the introduction of specific and more precise techniques and methods. For this purpose, the object of this paper is modeling a supersonic flow of inviscid fluid around a dihedral airfoil. Based on the thin airfoils theory and the non-dimensional stationary Steichen equation of a two-dimensional supersonic flow in isentropic evolution, we obtained a solution for the downstream velocity potential of the oblique shock at the second order of relative thickness that characterizes a perturbation parameter. This result has been dealt with by the asymptotic analysis and characteristics method. In order to validate our model, the results are discussed in comparison with theoretical and experimental results. Indeed, firstly, the comparison of the results of our model has shown that they are quantitatively acceptable compared to the existing theoretical results. Finally, an experimental study was conducted using the AF300 supersonic wind tunnel. In this experiment, we have considered the incident upstream Mach number over a symmetrical dihedral airfoil wing. The comparison of the different Mach number downstream results of our model with those of the existing theoretical data (relative margin between 0.07% and 4%) and with experimental results (concordance for a deflection angle between 1° and 11°) support the validation of our model with accuracy.

Keywords: asymptotic modelling, dihedral airfoil, supersonic flow, supersonic wind tunnel

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Authors: Shubham Jaiswal

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During modelling of many physical problems and engineering processes, fractional calculus plays an important role. Those are greatly described by fractional differential equations (FDEs). So a reliable and efficient technique to solve such types of FDEs is needed. In this article, a numerical solution of a class of fractional differential equations namely space fractional order reaction-advection dispersion equations subject to initial and boundary conditions is derived. In the proposed approach shifted Jacobi polynomials are used to approximate the solutions together with shifted Jacobi operational matrix of fractional order and spectral collocation method. The main advantage of this approach is that it converts such problems in the systems of algebraic equations which are easier to be solved. The proposed approach is effective to solve the linear as well as non-linear FDEs. To show the reliability, validity and high accuracy of proposed approach, the numerical results of some illustrative examples are reported, which are compared with the existing analytical results already reported in the literature. The error analysis for each case exhibited through graphs and tables confirms the exponential convergence rate of the proposed method.

Keywords: space fractional order linear/nonlinear reaction-advection diffusion equation, shifted Jacobi polynomials, operational matrix, collocation method, Caputo derivative

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Authors: Agil Gemilang Ramadhan, Novian Triandanu

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Since 1929, the first appearance in sea level, Anak Krakatau volcano growth relatively quickly. During the 80 years up to 2010 has reached the height of 320 meter above sea level. The possibility of catastrophic explosive eruption could happen again if the chemical composition of rocks from the eruption changed from alkaline magma into acid magma. Until now Anak Krakatau volcanic activity is still quite active as evidenced by the frequency of eruptions that produced ash sized pyroclastic deposits - bomb. Purpose of this study was to identify changes in the percentage of rock geochemistry any results eruption of Anak Krakatau volcano to see consistency change the percentage content of silica in the magma that affect the type of volcanic eruptions. Results from this study will be produced in the form of a diagram the data changes the chemical composition of rocks of Anak Krakatau volcano. Changes in the composition of any silica eruption are illustrated in a graph. If the increase in the percentage of silica is happening consistently and it is assumed to increase in the time scale of a few percent, then to achieve silica content of 68 % (acid composition) that will produce an explosive eruption will know the approximate time. All aspects of the factors driving the increased threat of danger to the public should be taken into account. Catastrophic eruption katatropis mitigation can be planned early so that when these disasters happen later, casualties can be minimized.

Keywords: Krakatau volcano, rock geochemistry, catastrophic eruption, mitigation

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Authors: Soyoon Bak, Sunyoung Bu, Philsu Kim

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In this paper, a backward semi-Lagrangian scheme combined with the second-order backward difference formula is designed to calculate the numerical solutions of nonlinear advection-diffusion equations. The primary aims of this paper are to remove any iteration process and to get an efficient algorithm with the convergence order of accuracy 2 in time. In order to achieve these objects, we use the second-order central finite difference and the B-spline approximations of degree 2 and 3 in order to approximate the diffusion term and the spatial discretization, respectively. For the temporal discretization, the second order backward difference formula is applied. To calculate the numerical solution of the starting point of the characteristic curves, we use the error correction methodology developed by the authors recently. The proposed algorithm turns out to be completely iteration-free, which resolves the main weakness of the conventional backward semi-Lagrangian method. Also, the adaptability of the proposed method is indicated by numerical simulations for Burgers’ equations. Throughout these numerical simulations, it is shown that the numerical results are in good agreement with the analytic solution and the present scheme offer better accuracy in comparison with other existing numerical schemes. Semi-Lagrangian method, iteration-free method, nonlinear advection-diffusion equation, second-order backward difference formula

Keywords: Semi-Lagrangian method, iteration free method, nonlinear advection-diffusion equation, second-order backward difference formula

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Authors: Rabih Al-Kaysi

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When quasi-stable solutions of 9-methylanthracene (pi-electron donor, 0.0005 M) and 1,2,4,5-Tetracyanobenzene (pi-electron acceptor, 0.0005 M) in aqueous sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS, 0.025 M) were gently mixed, uniform-shaped rectangular charge-transfer nanocrystals precipitated out. These red colored charge-transfer (CT) crystals were composed of a 1:1-mole ratio of acceptor/ donor and are highly insoluble in water/SDS solution. The rectangular crystals morphology is semi hollow with symmetrical twin pockets reminiscent of nanocapsules. For a typical crop of nanocapsules, the dimensions are 21 x 6 x 0.5 microns with an approximate hollow volume of 1.5 x 105 nm3. By varying the concentration of aqueous SDS, mixing duration and incubation temperature, we can control the size and volume of the nanocapsules. The initial number of CT seed nanoparticles, formed by mixing the D and A solutions, determined the number and dimensions of the obtained nanocapsules formed after several hours of incubation under still conditions. Prolonged mixing of the donor and acceptor solutions resulted in plenty of initial seeds hence smaller nanocapsules. Short mixing times yields less seed formation and larger micron-sized capsules. The addition of Doxorubicin in situ with the quasi-stable solutions while mixing leads to the formation of CT nanocapsules with Doxorubicin sealed inside. The Doxorubicin can be liberated from the nanocapsules by cracking them using ultrasonication. This method can be extended to other binary CT complex crystals as well.

Keywords: charge-transfer, nanocapsules, nanocrystals, doxorubicin

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Authors: Hashim Zameer

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Effective tourism management plays a vital role in promoting sustainability and supporting ecosystems. A common principle that has been in practice over the years is “first pollute and then clean,” indicating countries need financial resources to promote sustainability. Financial development and the tourism management both seems very important to promoting sustainable development. However, without institutional support, it is very difficult to succeed. In this context, it seems prominently significant to explore how institutional quality, tourism development, and financial development could promote sustainable development. In the past, no research explored the role of tourism development in sustainable development. Moreover, the role of financial development, natural resources, and institutional quality in sustainable development is also ignored. In this regard, this paper aims to investigate the role of tourism development, natural resources, financial development, and institutional quality in sustainable development in China. The study used time-series data from 2000–2021 and employed the Bayesian linear regression model because it is suitable for small data sets. The robustness of the findings was checked using a quantile regression approach. The results reveal that an increase in tourism expenditures stimulates the economy, creates jobs, encourages cultural exchange, and supports sustainability initiatives. Moreover, financial development and institution quality have a positive effect on sustainable development. However, reliance on natural resources can result in negative economic, social, and environmental outcomes, highlighting the need for resource diversification and management to reinforce sustainable development. These results highlight the significance of financial development, strong institutions, sustainable tourism, and careful utilization of natural resources for long-term sustainability. The study holds vital insights for policy formulation to promote sustainable tourism.

Keywords: sustainability, tourism development, financial development, institutional quality

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Authors: Yang Zheng, Wei Sun

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This paper describes a new approach which can be used to interpret the experimental creep deformation data obtained from miniaturized thin plate bending specimen test to the corresponding uniaxial data based on an inversed application of the reference stress method. The geometry of the thin plate is fully defined by the span of the support, l, the width, b, and the thickness, d. Firstly, analytical solutions for the steady-state, load-line creep deformation rate of the thin plates for a Norton’s power law under plane stress (b → 0) and plane strain (b → ∞) conditions were obtained, from which it can be seen that the load-line deformation rate of the thin plate under plane-stress conditions is much higher than that under the plane-strain conditions. Since analytical solution is not available for the plates with random b-values, finite element (FE) analyses are used to obtain the solutions. Based on the FE results obtained for various b/l ratios and creep exponent, n, as well as the analytical solutions under plane stress and plane strain conditions, an approximate, numerical solutions for the deformation rate are obtained by curve fitting. Using these solutions, a reference stress method is utilised to establish the conversion relationships between the applied load and the equivalent uniaxial stress and between the creep deformations of thin plate and the equivalent uniaxial creep strains. Finally, the accuracy of the empirical solution was assessed by using a set of “theoretical” experimental data.

Keywords: bending, creep, thin plate, materials engineering

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Authors: Ran An, Dang Wang

Abstract:

Background: Mechanical ventilation has been confirmed to increase the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and several studies have shown that low tidal volumes combined with positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and recruitment manoeuvres (RM) reduce the incidence of PPCs. However, the optimal lung-protective ventilatory strategy remains unclear. Methods: Multiple databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published prior to October 2023. The association between individual PEEP (iPEEP) or other forms of lung-protective ventilation and the incidence of PPCs was evaluated by Bayesian network meta-analysis. Results: We included 58 studies (11610 patients) in this meta-analysis. The network meta-analysis showed that low ventilation (LVt) combined with iPEEP and RM was associated with significantly lower incidences of PPCs [HVt: OR=0.38 95CrI (0.19, 0.75), LVt: OR=0.33, 95% CrI (0.12, 0.82)], postoperative atelectasis, and pneumonia than was HVt or LVt. In abdominal surgery, LVT combined with iPEEP or medium-to-high PEEP and RM were associated with significantly lower incidences of PPCs, postoperative atelectasis, and pneumonia. LVt combined with iPEEP and RM was ranked the highest, which was based on SUCRA scores. Conclusion: LVt combined with iPEEP and RM decreased the incidences of PPCs, postoperative atelectasis, and pneumonia in noncardiac surgery patients. iPEEP-guided ventilation was the optimal lung protection ventilation strategy. The quality of evidence was moderate.

Keywords: protection ventilation strategies, postoperative pulmonary complications, network meta-analysis, noncardiac surgery

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Authors: Soumya Bhattacharjya, Avinandan Sahoo, Gaurav Datta

Abstract:

Wind fragility analysis of chimney is often carried out disregarding temperature effect. However, the combined effect of wind and temperature is the most critical limit state for chimney design. Hence, in the present paper, an efficient fragility analysis for concrete chimney is explored under combined wind and temperature effect. Wind time histories are generated by Davenports Power Spectral Density Function and using Weighed Amplitude Wave Superposition Technique. Fragility analysis is often carried out in full Monte Carlo Simulation framework, which requires extensive computational time. Thus, in the present paper, an efficient adaptive metamodelling technique is adopted to judiciously approximate limit state function, which will be subsequently used in the simulation framework. This will save substantial computational time and make the approach computationally efficient. Uncertainty in wind speed, wind load related parameters, and resistance-related parameters is considered. The results by the full simulation approach, conventional metamodelling approach and proposed adaptive metamodelling approach will be compared. Effect of disregarding temperature in wind fragility analysis will be highlighted.

Keywords: adaptive metamodelling technique, concrete chimney, fragility analysis, stochastic extreme wind load, temperature effect

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Authors: E. I. Ugwu

Abstract:

Theoretical analysis of the optical and Solid State properties of ZnS thin film using beam propagation technique in which a scalar wave is propagated through the material thin film deposited on a substrate with the assumption that the dielectric medium is section into a homogenous reference dielectric constant term, and a perturbed dielectric term, representing the deposited thin film medium is presented in this work. These two terms, constitute arbitrary complex dielectric function that describes dielectric perturbation imposed by the medium of for the system. This is substituted into a defined scalar wave equation in which the appropriate Green’s Function was defined on it and solved using series technique. The green’s value obtained from Green’s Function was used in Dyson’s and Lippmann Schwinger equations in conjunction with Born approximation method in computing the propagated field for different input regions of field wavelength during which the influence of the dielectric constants and mesh size of the thin film on the propagating field were depicted. The results obtained from the computed field were used in turn to generate the data that were used to compute the band gaps, solid state and optical properties of the thin film such as reflectance, Transmittance and reflectance with which the band gap obtained was found to be in close approximate to that of experimental value.

Keywords: scalar wave, optical and solid state properties, thin film, dielectric medium, perturbation, Lippmann Schwinger equations, Green’s Function, propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: B. A. Adeniyi, S. A. Daud, O. Amao

Abstract:

The study investigates consumer demand for meat products in Oyo West Local Government using linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS). Questions that were addressed by the study include: first, what is the type and quantity of meat products available to the household and their demand pattern? Second is the investigation of the factors that affect meat products demand pattern and proportion of income that is spent on them. For the above purpose cross-sectional data were collected from 156 households of the study area and analyzed to reveal the functional relationship between meat products consumption and some socio-economic variables of the household. Results indicated that per capita meat consumption increased as household income and education increased but decreased with age. It was also found that male tend to consume more meat products than their female counterparts and that increase in household size will first increased per caput meat consumption but later decreased it. Price also tends to greatly influence the demand pattern of meat products. The results of elasticity computed from the results of regression analysis revealed that own price elasticity for all meat products were negative which indicated that they were normal products while cross and expenditure elasticity were positive which further confirmed that meat products were normal and substitute products. This study therefore concludes that the relevance of these variables imposed a great challenge to the policy makers and the government, in the sense that more cost effective methods of meat production technology have to be devised in other to make consumption of meat products more affordable.

Keywords: meat products, consumption, animal production, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Ahmed R. Ballil

Abstract:

Heat exchangers are devices used to transfer heat between two fluids. These devices are utilized in many engineering and industrial applications such as heating, cooling, condensation and boiling processes. The fluids might be in direct contact (mixed), or they separated by a solid wall to avoid mixing. In the present paper, interactive computer-aided design of shell and tube heat exchangers is developed using Visual Basic computer code as a framework. This design is based on the Bell-Delaware method, which is one of the very well known methods reported in the literature for the design of shell and tube heat exchangers. Physical properties for either the tube or the shell side fluids are internally evaluated by calling on an enormous data bank composed of more than a hundred fluid compounds. This contributes to increase the accuracy of the present design. The international system of units is considered in the developed computer program. The present design has an added feature of being capable of performing modification based upon a preset design criterion, such that an optimum design is obtained at satisfying constraints set either by the user or by the method itself. Also, the present code is capable of giving an estimate of the approximate cost of the heat exchanger based on the predicted surface area of the exchanger evaluated by the program. Finally, the present thermal and hydraulic design code is tested for accuracy and consistency against some of existed and approved designs of shell and tube heat exchangers.

Keywords: bell-delaware method, heat exchangers, shell and tube, thermal and hydraulic design

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Authors: Manpreet Kaur

Abstract:

The effect of external and internal exposure in outdoor and indoor environment can be significantly gauged by natural radionuclides. Therefore, it is a consequential to approximate the level of radionuclide contents in soil samples of any area and the risks associated with it. Rate of radon emerging from soil is also one of the prominent parameters for the assessment of radon levels in environmental. In present study, natural radionuclide contents viz. ²³²Th, ²³⁸U and ⁴⁰K and radon/thoron exhalation rates were evaluated operating thallium doped sodium iodide gamma radiation detector and advanced Smart Rn Duo technique in the soil samples from 30 villages of Jammu district, Jammu and Kashmir, India. Radon flux rate was also measured by using surface chamber technique. Results obtained with two different methods were compared to investigate the cause of emanation factor in the soil profile. The radon mass exhalation rate in the soil samples has been found varying from 15 ± 0.4 to 38 ± 0.8 mBq kg⁻¹ h⁻¹ while thoron surface exhalation rate has been found varying from 90 ± 22 to 4880 ± 280 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹. The mean value of radium equivalent activity (99 ± 27 Bq kg⁻¹) was appeared to be well within the admissible limit of 370 Bq kg⁻¹ suggested by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2009) report. The values of various parameters related to radiological hazards were also calculated and all parameters have been found to be well below the safe limits given by various organizations. The outcomes pointed out that region was protected from danger as per health risks effects associated with these radionuclide contents is concerned.

Keywords: absorbed dose rate, exhalation rate, human health, radionuclide

Procedia PDF Downloads 133