Search results for: Islamic financial innovation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4915

Search results for: Islamic financial innovation

205 Leveraging Digital Cyber Technology for Self-Care and Improved Management of DMPA-SC Clients

Authors: Oluwaseun Adeleke, Grace Amarachi Omenife, Jennifer Adebambo, Mopelola Raji, Anthony Nwala, Mogbonjubade Adesulure

Abstract:

Introduction: The incorporation of digital technology in healthcare systems is instrumental in transforming the delivery, management, and overall experience of healthcare and holds the potential to scale up access through over 200 million active mobile phones used in Nigeria. Digital tools enable increased access to care, stronger client engagement, progress in research and data-driven insights, and more effective promotion of self-care and do-it-yourself practices. The Delivering Innovation in Self-Care (DISC) project 2021 has played a pivotal role in granting women greater autonomy over their sexual and reproductive health (SRH) through a variety of approaches, including information and training to self-inject contraception (DMPA-SC). To optimize its outcomes, the project also leverages digital technology platforms like social media: Facebook, Instagram, and Meet Tina (Chatbot) via WhatsApp, Customer Relationship Management (CRM) applications Freshworks, and Viamo. Methodology: The project has been successful at optimizing in-person digital cyberspace interaction to sensitize individuals effectively about self-injection and provide linkages to SI services. This platform employs the Freshworks CRM software application, along with specially trained personnel known as Cyber IPC Agents and DHIS calling centers. Integration of Freshworks CRM software with social media allows a direct connection with clients to address emerging issues, schedule follow-ups, send reminders to improve compliance with self-injection schedules, enhance the overall user experience for self-injection (SI) clients, and generate comprehensive reports and analytics on client interactions. Interaction covers a range of topics, including – How to use SI, learning more about SI, side-effects and its management, accessing services, fertility, ovulation, other family planning methods, inquiries related to Sexual Reproductive Health as well as uses an address log to connect them with nearby facilities or online pharmaceuticals. Results: Between the months of March to September, a total of 5,403 engagements were recorded. Among these, 4,685 were satisfactorily resolved. Since the program's inception, digital advertising has created 233,633,075 impressions, reached 12,715,582 persons, and resulted in 3,394,048 clicks. Conclusion: Leveraging digital technology has proven to be an invaluable tool in client management and improving client experience. The use of Cyber technology has enabled the successful development and maintenance of client relationships, which have been effective at providing support, facilitating delivery and compliance with DMPA-SC self-injection services, and ensuring overall client satisfaction. Concurrently, providing qualitative data, including user experience feedback, has enabled the derivation of crucial insights that inform the decision-making process and guide in normalizing self-care behavior.

Keywords: selfcare, DMPA-SC self-injection, digital technology, cyber technology, freshworks CRM software

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
204 The Political Economy of Media Privatisation in Egypt: State Mechanisms and Continued Control

Authors: Mohamed Elmeshad

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During the mid-1990's Egypt had become obliged to implement the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program that included broad economic liberalization, expansion of the private sector and a contraction the size of government spending. This coincided as well with attempts to appear more democratic and open to liberalizing public space and discourse. At the same time, economic pressures and the proliferation of social media access and activism had led to increased pressure to open a mediascape and remove it from the clutches of the government, which had monopolized print and broadcast mass media for over 4 decades by that point. However, the mechanisms that governed the privatization of mass media allowed for sustained government control, even through the prism of ostensibly privately owned newspapers and television stations. These mechanisms involve barriers to entry from a financial and security perspective, as well as operational capacities of distribution and access to means of production. The power dynamics between mass media establishments and the state were moulded during this period in a novel way. Power dynamics within media establishments had also formed under such circumstances. The changes in the country's political economy itself somehow mirrored these developments. This paper will examine these dynamics and shed light on the political economy of Egypt's newly privatized mass media in the early 2000's especially. Methodology: This study will rely on semi-structured interviews from individuals involved with these changes from the perspective of the media organizations. It also will map out the process of media privatization by looking at the administrative, operative and legislative institutions and contexts in order to attempt to draw conclusions on methods of control and the role of the state during the process of privatization. Finally, a brief discourse analysis will be necessary in order to aptly convey how these factors ultimately reflected on media output. Findings and conclusion: The development of Egyptian private, “independent” mirrored the trajectory of transitions in the country’s political economy. Liberalization of the economy meant that a growing class of business owners would explore opportunities that such new markets would offer. However the regime’s attempts to control access to certain forms of capital, especially in sectors such as the media affected the structure of print and broadcast media, as well as the institutions that would govern them. Like the process of liberalisation, much of the regime’s manoeuvring with regards to privatization of media had been haphazardly used to indirectly expand the regime and its ruling party’s ability to retain influence, while creating a believable façade of openness. In this paper, we will attempt to uncover these mechanisms and analyse our findings in ways that explain how the manifestations prevalent in the context of a privatizing media space in a transitional Egypt provide evidence of both the intentions of this transition, and the ways in which it was being held back.

Keywords: business, mass media, political economy, power, privatisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
203 Motives for Reshoring from China to Europe: A Hierarchical Classification of Companies

Authors: Fabienne Fel, Eric Griette

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Reshoring, whether concerning back-reshoring or near-reshoring, is a quite recent phenomenon. Despite the economic and political interest of this topic, academic research questioning determinants of reshoring remains rare. Our paper aims at contributing to fill this gap. In order to better understand the reasons for reshoring, we conducted a study among 280 French firms during spring 2016, three-quarters of which sourced, or source, in China. 105 firms in the sample have reshored all or part of their Chinese production or supply in recent years, and we aimed to establish a typology of the motives that drove them to this decision. We asked our respondents about the history of their Chinese supplies, their current reshoring strategies, and their motivations. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 22 and SPAD 8. Our results show that change in commercial and financial terms with China is the first motive explaining the current reshoring movement from this country (it applies to 54% of our respondents). A change in corporate strategy is the second motive (30% of our respondents); the reshoring decision follows a change in companies’ strategies (upgrading, implementation of a CSR policy, or a 'lean management' strategy). The third motive (14% of our sample) is a mere correction of the initial offshoring decision, considered as a mistake (under-estimation of hidden costs, non-quality and non-responsiveness problems). Some authors emphasize that developing a short supply chain, involving geographic proximity between design and production, gives a competitive advantage to companies wishing to offer innovative products. Admittedly 40% of our respondents indicate that this motive could have played a part in their decision to reshore, but this reason was not enough for any of them and is not an intrinsic motive leading to leaving Chinese suppliers. Having questioned our respondents about the importance given to various problems leading them to reshore, we then performed a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), associated with an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), based on Ward criterion, so as to point out more specific motivations. Three main classes of companies should be distinguished: -The 'Cost Killers' (23% of the sample), which reshore their supplies from China only because of higher procurement costs and so as to find lower costs elsewhere. -The 'Realists' (50% of the sample), giving equal weight or importance to increasing procurement costs in China and to the quality of their supplies (to a large extend). Companies being part of this class tend to take advantage of this changing environment to change their procurement strategy, seeking suppliers offering better quality and responsiveness. - The 'Voluntarists' (26% of the sample), which choose to reshore their Chinese supplies regardless of higher Chinese costs, to obtain better quality and greater responsiveness. We emphasize that if the main driver for reshoring from China is indeed higher local costs, it is should not be regarded as an exclusive motivation; 77% of the companies in the sample, are also seeking, sometimes exclusively, more reactive suppliers, liable to quality, respect for the environment and intellectual property.

Keywords: China, procurement, reshoring, strategy, supplies

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202 Parents as a Determinant for Students' Attitudes and Intentions toward Higher Education

Authors: Anna Öqvist, Malin Malmström

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Attaining a higher level of education has become an increasingly important prerequisite for people’s economic and social independence and mobility. Young people who do not pursue higher education are not as attractive as potential employees in the modern work environment. Although completing a higher education degree is not a guarantee for getting a job, it substantially increases the chances for employment and, consequently, the chances for a better life. Despite this, it’s a fact that in several regions in Sweden, fewer students are choosing to engage in higher education. Similar trends have been emphasized in, for instance, the US where high dropout patterns among young people have been noted. This is a threat to future employment and industry development in these regions because the future employment base for society is dependent upon students’ willingness to invest in higher education. Much of prior studies have focused on the role of parents’ involvement in their children’s’ school work and the positive influence parents involvement have on their children’s school performance. Parental influence on education in general has been a topic of interest among those concerned with optimal developmental and educational outcomes for children and youth in pre-, secondary- and high school. Across a range of studies, there has emerged a strong conclusion that parental influence on child and youths education generally benefits children's and youths learning and school success. Arguably then, we could expect that parents influence on whether or not to pursue a higher education would be of importance to understand young people’s choice to engage in higher education. Accordingly, understanding what drives students’ intentions to pursue higher education is an essential component of motivating students to aspire to make the most of their potential in their future work life. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior, this study examines the role of parents influence on students’ attitudes about whether higher education can be beneficial to their future work life. We used a qualitative approach by collecting interview data from 18 high school students in Sweden to capture students’ cognitive and motivational mechanisms (attitudes) to influence intentions to engage in higher education. We found that parents may positively or negatively influence students’ attitudes and subsequently a student's intention to pursue higher education. Accordingly, our results show that parents’ own attitudes and expectations on their children are keys for influencing students’ attitudes and intentions for higher education. Further, our finding illuminates the mechanisms that drive students in one direction or the other. As such, our findings show that the same categories of arguments are used for driving students’ attitudes and intentions in two opposite directions, namely; financial arguments and work life benefits arguments. Our results contribute to existing literature by showing that parents do affect young people’s intentions to engage in higher studies. The findings contribute to the theory of planned behavior and have implications for the literature on higher education and educational psychology and also provide guidance on how to inform students about facts of higher studies in school.

Keywords: higher studies, intentions, parents influence, theory of planned behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 230
201 The Impact of Inconclusive Results of Thin Layer Chromatography for Marijuana Analysis and It’s Implication on Forensic Laboratory Backlog

Authors: Ana Flavia Belchior De Andrade

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Forensic laboratories all over the world face a great challenge to overcame waiting time and backlog in many different areas. Many aspects contribute to this situation, such as an increase in drug complexity, increment in the number of exams requested and cuts in funding limiting laboratories hiring capacity. Altogether, those facts pose an essential challenge for forensic chemistry laboratories to keep both quality and time of response within an acceptable period. In this paper we will analyze how the backlog affects test results and, in the end, the whole judicial system. In this study data from marijuana samples seized by the Federal District Civil Police in Brazil between the years 2013 and 2017 were tabulated and the results analyzed and discussed. In the last five years, the number of petitioned exams increased from 822 in February 2013 to 1358 in March 2018, representing an increase of 32% in 5 years, a rise of more than 6% per year. Meanwhile, our data shows that the number of performed exams did not grow at the same rate. Product numbers are stationed as using the actual technology scenario and analyses routine the laboratory is running in full capacity. Marijuana detection is the most prevalence exam required, representing almost 70% of all exams. In this study, data from 7,110 (seven thousand one hundred and ten) marijuana samples were analyzed. Regarding waiting time, most of the exams were performed not later than 60 days after receipt (77%). Although some samples waited up to 30 months before being examined (0,65%). When marijuana´s exam is delayed we notice the enlargement of inconclusive results using thin-layer chromatography (TLC). Our data shows that if a marijuana sample is stored for more than 18 months, inconclusive results rise from 2% to 7% and when if storage exceeds 30 months, inconclusive rates increase to 13%. This is probably because Cannabis plants and preparations undergo oxidation under storage resulting in a decrease in the content of Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol ( Δ9-THC). An inconclusive result triggers other procedures that require at least two more working hours of our analysts (e.g., GC/MS analysis) and the report would be delayed at least one day. Those new procedures increase considerably the running cost of a forensic drug laboratory especially when the backlog is significant as inconclusive results tend to increase with waiting time. Financial aspects are not the only ones to be observed regarding backlog cases; there are also social issues as legal procedures can be delayed and prosecution of serious crimes can be unsuccessful. Delays may slow investigations and endanger public safety by giving criminals more time on the street to re-offend. This situation also implies a considerable cost to society as at some point, if the exam takes a long time to be performed, an inconclusive can turn into a negative result and a criminal can be absolved by flawed expert evidence.

Keywords: backlog, forensic laboratory, quality management, accreditation

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
200 Impact of Customer Experience Quality on Loyalty of Mobile and Fixed Broadband Services: Case Study of Telecom Egypt Group

Authors: Nawal Alawad, Passent Ibrahim Tantawi, Mohamed Abdel Salam Ragheb

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Providing customers with quality experiences has been confirmed to be a sustainable, competitive advantage with a distinct financial impact for companies. The success of service providers now relies on their ability to provide customer-centric services. The importance of perceived service quality and customer experience is widely recognized. The focus of this research is in the area of mobile and fixed broadband services. This study is of dual importance both academically and practically. Academically, this research applies a new model investigating the impact of customer experience quality on loyalty based on modifying the multiple-item scale for measuring customers’ service experience in a new area and did not depend on the traditional models. The integrated scale embraces four dimensions: service experience, outcome focus, moments of truth and peace of mind. In addition, it gives a scientific explanation for this relationship so this research fill the gap in such relations in which no one correlate or give explanations for these relations before using such integrated model and this is the first time to apply such modified and integrated new model in telecom field. Practically, this research gives insights to marketers and practitioners to improve customer loyalty through evolving the experience quality of broadband customers which is interpreted to suggested outcomes: purchase, commitment, repeat purchase and word-of-mouth, this approach is one of the emerging topics in service marketing. Data were collected through 412 questionnaires and analyzed by using structural equation modeling.Findings revealed that both outcome focus and moments of truth have a significant impact on loyalty while both service experience and peace of mind have insignificant impact on loyalty.In addition, it was found that 72% of the variation occurring in loyalty is explained by the model. The researcher also measured the net prompters score and gave explanation for the results. Furthermore, assessed customer’s priorities of broadband services. The researcher recommends that the findings of this research will extend to be considered in the future plans of Telecom Egypt Group. In addition, to be applied in the same industry especially in the developing countries that have the same circumstances with similar service settings. This research is a positive contribution in service marketing, particularly in telecom industry for making marketing more reliable as managers can relate investments in service experience directly with the performance closest to income for instance, repurchasing behavior, positive word of mouth and, commitment. Finally, the researcher recommends that future studies should consider this model to explain significant marketing outcomes such as share of wallet and ultimately profitability.

Keywords: broadband services, customer experience quality, loyalty, net promoters score

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
199 The Relevance of Community Involvement in Flood Risk Governance Towards Resilience to Groundwater Flooding. A Case Study of Project Groundwater Buckinghamshire, UK

Authors: Claude Nsobya, Alice Moncaster, Karen Potter, Jed Ramsay

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The shift in Flood Risk Governance (FRG) has moved away from traditional approaches that solely relied on centralized decision-making and structural flood defenses. Instead, there is now the adoption of integrated flood risk management measures that involve various actors and stakeholders. This new approach emphasizes people-centered approaches, including adaptation and learning. This shift to a diversity of FRG approaches has been identified as a significant factor in enhancing resilience. Resilience here refers to a community's ability to withstand, absorb, recover, adapt, and potentially transform in the face of flood events. It is argued that if the FRG merely focused on the conventional 'fighting the water' - flood defense - communities would not be resilient. The move to these people-centered approaches also implies that communities will be more involved in FRG. It is suggested that effective flood risk governance influences resilience through meaningful community involvement, and effective community engagement is vital in shaping community resilience to floods. Successful community participation not only uses context-specific indigenous knowledge but also develops a sense of ownership and responsibility. Through capacity development initiatives, it can also raise awareness and all these help in building resilience. Recent Flood Risk Management (FRM) projects have thus had increasing community involvement, with varied conceptualizations of such community engagement in the academic literature on FRM. In the context of overland floods, there has been a substantial body of literature on Flood Risk Governance and Management. Yet, groundwater flooding has gotten little attention despite its unique qualities, such as its persistence for weeks or months, slow onset, and near-invisibility. There has been a little study in this area on how successful community involvement in Flood Risk Governance may improve community resilience to groundwater flooding in particular. This paper focuses on a case study of a flood risk management project in the United Kingdom. Buckinghamshire Council is leading Project Groundwater, which is one of 25 significant initiatives sponsored by England's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Flood and Coastal Resilience Innovation Programme. DEFRA awarded Buckinghamshire Council and other councils 150 million to collaborate with communities and implement innovative methods to increase resilience to groundwater flooding. Based on a literature review, this paper proposes a new paradigm for effective community engagement in Flood Risk Governance (FRG). This study contends that effective community participation can have an impact on various resilience capacities identified in the literature, including social capital, institutional capital, physical capital, natural capital, human capital, and economic capital. In the case of social capital, for example, successful community engagement can influence social capital through the process of social learning as well as through developing social networks and trust values, which are vital in influencing communities' capacity to resist, absorb, recover, and adapt. The study examines community engagement in Project Groundwater using surveys with local communities and documentary analysis to test this notion. The outcomes of the study will inform community involvement activities in Project Groundwater and may shape DEFRA policies and guidelines for community engagement in FRM.

Keywords: flood risk governance, community, resilience, groundwater flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
198 Impact of U.S. Insurance Reimbursement Policy on Healthcare Business and Entrepreneurship

Authors: Iris Xiaohong Quan, Sharon Qi, Kelly Tianqin Shi

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This study focuses on the critical role of insurance policies in a world grappling with increasing mental health challenges, as they significantly influence the dynamics of healthcare businesses and entrepreneurial ventures. The paper utilizes the mental health sector as a case to examine the impact of insurance policies on healthcare service providers, entrepreneurs, and individuals seeking mental health support. This paper addressed the following research questions: To what extent do changes in insurance reimbursement policies affect the accessibility and affordability of mental health services for patients, and how does this impact the overall demand for such services? What are the barriers and opportunities that mental health entrepreneurs face and what strategies and adaptations do mental health businesses employ when navigating the evolving landscape of insurance reimbursement policies? How do changes in insurance reimbursement policies, specifically related to mental health services, influence the financial viability and sustainability of mental health clinics and private practices? Employing a self-designed survey aimed at autism spectrum disorder (ASD) treatment companies, alongside two in-depth case studies and an analysis of pertinent insurance policies and documents, this research aims to elucidate the multifaceted influence of insurance policies on the mental health industry. The findings from this study reveal how insurance policies shape the landscape of mental health businesses and their operations. A total of 821 autism treatment organizations or offices were contacted by telephone between November 1, 2019, and January 31, 2020. About half of the offices (53.33%) were established in the past five years, and 80% were established in the past 15 years. There is a significant increase in the establishment of ABA service centers in the recent two decades as a result of autism insurance reform, the increasing social awareness of ASD, and the redefinition of autism. In addition, almost half of the ABA service providers we surveyed had a patient size ranging from 20 to 50 in the year when the residence state passed the legislation for autism insurance coverage. On average, an ABA service provider works with 5.3 insurance companies. This research find that insurance is the main source of revenue for most ABA service providers. However, our survey reveals that clients’ out of pocket payment has been the second main revenue sources. Despite the changes of regulations and insurance policies in all states, clients still have to pay a fraction of, if not all, the ABA treatment service fees out of pocket. This research shows that some ABA service providers seek federal and government funds and grants to support their services and businesses. Our further analysis with the in-depth case studies and other secondary data also indicate the rise of entrepreneurial startups in the mental health industry. Overall, this research sheds light on both the challenges and opportunities presented by insurance policies in the mental health sector, offering insights into the new industry landscape.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, healthcare policy, insurance policy, mental health industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 39
197 Design of a Small and Medium Enterprise Growth Prediction Model Based on Web Mining

Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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196 An Anthropological Insight into Farming Practices and Cultural Life of Farmers in Sarawan Village, District Faridkot, Punjab

Authors: Amandeep Kaur

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Farming is one of the most influential traditions which started around 10000 BC and has revolutionized human civilization. It is believed that farming originated at a separate location. Thus it has a great impact on local culture, which in turn gave rise to diversified farming practices. Farming activities are influenced by the culture of a particular region or community as local people have their own knowledge and belief system about soil and crops. With the inception of the Green Revolution, 'a high tech machinery model' in Punjab, various traditional farming methods and techniques changed. The present research concentrates on the local knowledge of farmers and local farming systems from an anthropological perspective. In view of the prevailing agrarian crisis in Punjab, this research is focused on farmer’s experiences and their perception regarding farming practices. Thus an attempt has to be made to focus on the local knowledge, perception, and experience of farmers for eco-friendly and sustainable agricultural development. Farmers voices are used to understand the relationship between farming practices and socio-cultural life of farmers in Faridkot district, Punjab. The research aims to comprehend the nature of changes taking place in the socio-cultural life of people with the development of capitalism and agricultural modernization. The study is based on qualitative methods of ethnography in Sarawan village of Faridkot District. Inferences drawn from in-depth case studies collected from 60 agricultural households lead to the concept of the process of diffusion, innovation, and adoption of farming technology, a variety of crops and the dissemination of agricultural skills regarding various cultural farming practices. The data is based on random sampling; the respondents were both males and females above the age of 18 years to attain a holistic understanding across the generations. A Quasi-participant observation related to lifestyle, the standard of living, and various farming practices performed by them were done. Narratives derived from the fieldwork depicts that farmers usually oppose the restrictions imposed by the government on certain farming practices, especially ban on stubble burning. This paper presents the narratives of farmers regarding the dissemination of awareness about the use of new varieties of seeds, technology, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. The study reveals that farming systems have developed in ways reflecting the activities and choices of farmers influenced by environmental, socio-cultural, economic, and political situations. Modern farming practices have forced small farmers into debt as farmers feel pride in buying new machinery. It has also led to the loss of work culture and excessive use of drugs among youngsters. Even laborers did not want to work on the land with cultivating farmers primarily for social and political reasons. Due to lack of proper marketing of crops, there is a continuum of the wheat-rice cycle instead of crop diversification in Punjab. Change in the farming system also affects the social structure of society. Agricultural modernization has commercialized the socio-cultural relations in Punjab and is slowly urbanizing the rural landscape revolutionizing the traditional social relations to capitalistic relations.

Keywords: agricultural modernization, capitalism, farming practices, narratives

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195 A Complex Network Approach to Structural Inequality of Educational Deprivation

Authors: Harvey Sanchez-Restrepo, Jorge Louca

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Equity and education are major focus of government policies around the world due to its relevance for addressing the sustainable development goals launched by Unesco. In this research, we developed a primary analysis of a data set of more than one hundred educational and non-educational factors associated with learning, coming from a census-based large-scale assessment carried on in Ecuador for 1.038.328 students, their families, teachers, and school directors, throughout 2014-2018. Each participating student was assessed by a standardized computer-based test. Learning outcomes were calibrated through item response theory with two-parameters logistic model for getting raw scores that were re-scaled and synthetized by a learning index (LI). Our objective was to develop a network for modelling educational deprivation and analyze the structure of inequality gaps, as well as their relationship with socioeconomic status, school financing, and student's ethnicity. Results from the model show that 348 270 students did not develop the minimum skills (prevalence rate=0.215) and that Afro-Ecuadorian, Montuvios and Indigenous students exhibited the highest prevalence with 0.312, 0.278 and 0.226, respectively. Regarding the socioeconomic status of students (SES), modularity class shows clearly that the system is out of equilibrium: the first decile (the poorest) exhibits a prevalence rate of 0.386 while rate for decile ten (the richest) is 0.080, showing an intense negative relationship between learning and SES given by R= –0.58 (p < 0.001). Another interesting and unexpected result is the average-weighted degree (426.9) for both private and public schools attending Afro-Ecuadorian students, groups that got the highest PageRank (0.426) and pointing out that they suffer the highest educational deprivation due to discrimination, even belonging to the richest decile. The model also found the factors which explain deprivation through the highest PageRank and the greatest degree of connectivity for the first decile, they are: financial bonus for attending school, computer access, internet access, number of children, living with at least one parent, books access, read books, phone access, time for homework, teachers arriving late, paid work, positive expectations about schooling, and mother education. These results provide very accurate and clear knowledge about the variables affecting poorest students and the inequalities that it produces, from which it might be defined needs profiles, as well as actions on the factors in which it is possible to influence. Finally, these results confirm that network analysis is fundamental for educational policy, especially linking reliable microdata with social macro-parameters because it allows us to infer how gaps in educational achievements are driven by students’ context at the time of assigning resources.

Keywords: complex network, educational deprivation, evidence-based policy, large-scale assessments, policy informatics

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194 Graphene-Graphene Oxide Dopping Effect on the Mechanical Properties of Polyamide Composites

Authors: Daniel Sava, Dragos Gudovan, Iulia Alexandra Gudovan, Ioana Ardelean, Maria Sonmez, Denisa Ficai, Laurentia Alexandrescu, Ecaterina Andronescu

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Graphene and graphene oxide have been intensively studied due to the very good properties, which are intrinsic to the material or come from the easy doping of those with other functional groups. Graphene and graphene oxide have known a broad band of useful applications, in electronic devices, drug delivery systems, medical devices, sensors and opto-electronics, coating materials, sorbents of different agents for environmental applications, etc. The board range of applications does not come only from the use of graphene or graphene oxide alone, or by its prior functionalization with different moieties, but also it is a building block and an important component in many composite devices, its addition coming with new functionalities on the final composite or strengthening the ones that are already existent on the parent product. An attempt to improve the mechanical properties of polyamide elastomers by compounding with graphene oxide in the parent polymer composition was attempted. The addition of the graphene oxide contributes to the properties of the final product, improving the hardness and aging resistance. Graphene oxide has a lower hardness and textile strength, and if the amount of graphene oxide in the final product is not correctly estimated, it can lead to mechanical properties which are comparable to the starting material or even worse, the graphene oxide agglomerates becoming a tearing point in the final material if the amount added is too high (in a value greater than 3% towards the parent material measured in mass percentages). Two different types of tests were done on the obtained materials, the hardness standard test and the tensile strength standard test, and they were made on the obtained materials before and after the aging process. For the aging process, an accelerated aging was used in order to simulate the effect of natural aging over a long period of time. The accelerated aging was made in extreme heat. For all materials, FT-IR spectra were recorded using FT-IR spectroscopy. From the FT-IR spectra only the bands corresponding to the polyamide were intense, while the characteristic bands for graphene oxide were very small in comparison due to the very small amounts introduced in the final composite along with the low absorptivity of the graphene backbone and limited number of functional groups. In conclusion, some compositions showed very promising results, both in tensile strength test and in hardness tests. The best ratio of graphene to elastomer was between 0.6 and 0.8%, this addition extending the life of the product. Acknowledgements: The present work was possible due to the EU-funding grant POSCCE-A2O2.2.1-2013-1, Project No. 638/12.03.2014, code SMIS-CSNR 48652. The financial contribution received from the national project ‘New nanostructured polymeric composites for centre pivot liners, centre plate and other components for the railway industry (RONERANANOSTRUCT)’, No: 18 PTE (PN-III-P2-2.1-PTE-2016-0146) is also acknowledged.

Keywords: graphene, graphene oxide, mechanical properties, dopping effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
193 Application of Unstructured Mesh Modeling in Evolving SGE of an Airport at the Confluence of Multiple Rivers in a Macro Tidal Region

Authors: A. A. Purohit, M. M. Vaidya, M. D. Kudale

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Among the various developing countries in the world like China, Malaysia, Korea etc., India is also developing its infrastructures in the form of Road/Rail/Airports and Waterborne facilities at an exponential rate. Mumbai, the financial epicenter of India is overcrowded and to relieve the pressure of congestion, Navi Mumbai suburb is being developed on the east bank of Thane creek near Mumbai. The government due to limited space at existing Mumbai Airports (domestic and international) to cater for the future demand of airborne traffic, proposes to build a new international airport near Panvel at Navi Mumbai. Considering the precedence of extreme rainfall on 26th July 2005 and nearby townships being in a low-lying area, wherein new airport is proposed, it is inevitable to study this complex confluence area from a hydrodynamic consideration under both tidal and extreme events (predicted discharge hydrographs), to avoid inundation of the surrounding due to the proposed airport reclamation (1160 hectares) and to determine the safe grade elevation (SGE). The model studies conducted using the application of unstructured mesh to simulate the Panvel estuarine area (93 km2), calibration, validation of a model for hydraulic field measurements and determine the maxima water levels around the airport for various extreme hydrodynamic events, namely the simultaneous occurrence of highest tide from the Arabian Sea and peak flood discharges (Probable Maximum Precipitation and 26th July 2005) from five rivers, the Gadhi, Kalundri, Taloja, Kasadi and Ulwe, meeting at the proposed airport area revealed that: (a) The Ulwe River flowing beneath the proposed airport needs to be diverted. The 120m wide proposed Ulwe diversion channel having a wider base width of 200 m at SH-54 Bridge on the Ulwe River along with the removal of the existing bund in Moha Creek is inevitable to keep the SGE of the airport to a minimum. (b) The clear waterway of 80 m at SH-54 Bridge (Ulwe River) and 120 m at Amra Marg Bridge near Moha Creek is also essential for the Ulwe diversion and (c) The river bank protection works on the right bank of Gadhi River between the NH-4B and SH-54 bridges as well as upstream of the Ulwe River diversion channel are essential to avoid inundation of low lying areas. The maxima water levels predicted around the airport keeps SGE to a minimum of 11m with respect to Chart datum of Ulwe Bundar and thus development is not only technologically-economically feasible but also sustainable. The unstructured mesh modeling is a promising tool to simulate complex extreme hydrodynamic events and provides a reliable solution to evolve optimal SGE of airport.

Keywords: airport, hydrodynamics, safe grade elevation, tides

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
192 Strategies for Synchronizing Chocolate Conching Data Using Dynamic Time Warping

Authors: Fernanda A. P. Peres, Thiago N. Peres, Flavio S. Fogliatto, Michel J. Anzanello

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Batch processes are widely used in food industry and have an important role in the production of high added value products, such as chocolate. Process performance is usually described by variables that are monitored as the batch progresses. Data arising from these processes are likely to display a strong correlation-autocorrelation structure, and are usually monitored using control charts based on multiway principal components analysis (MPCA). Process control of a new batch is carried out comparing the trajectories of its relevant process variables with those in a reference set of batches that yielded products within specifications; it is clear that proper determination of the reference set is key for the success of a correct signalization of non-conforming batches in such quality control schemes. In chocolate manufacturing, misclassifications of non-conforming batches in the conching phase may lead to significant financial losses. In such context, the accuracy of process control grows in relevance. In addition to that, the main assumption in MPCA-based monitoring strategies is that all batches are synchronized in duration, both the new batch being monitored and those in the reference set. Such assumption is often not satisfied in chocolate manufacturing process. As a consequence, traditional techniques as MPCA-based charts are not suitable for process control and monitoring. To address that issue, the objective of this work is to compare the performance of three dynamic time warping (DTW) methods in the alignment and synchronization of chocolate conching process variables’ trajectories, aimed at properly determining the reference distribution for multivariate statistical process control. The power of classification of batches in two categories (conforming and non-conforming) was evaluated using the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. Real data from a milk chocolate conching process was collected and the following variables were monitored over time: frequency of soybean lecithin dosage, rotation speed of the shovels, current of the main motor of the conche, and chocolate temperature. A set of 62 batches with durations between 495 and 1,170 minutes was considered; 53% of the batches were known to be conforming based on lab test results and experts’ evaluations. Results showed that all three DTW methods tested were able to align and synchronize the conching dataset. However, synchronized datasets obtained from these methods performed differently when inputted in the KNN classification algorithm. Kassidas, MacGregor and Taylor’s (named KMT) method was deemed the best DTW method for aligning and synchronizing a milk chocolate conching dataset, presenting 93.7% accuracy, 97.2% sensitivity and 90.3% specificity in batch classification, being considered the best option to determine the reference set for the milk chocolate dataset. Such method was recommended due to the lowest number of iterations required to achieve convergence and highest average accuracy in the testing portion using the KNN classification technique.

Keywords: batch process monitoring, chocolate conching, dynamic time warping, reference set distribution, variable duration

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
191 Influence of Household Conservation Benefits on the Sustainability of Burunge Wildlife Management Areas in Tanzania

Authors: Gasto Lyakurwa, Glory Bakari, Edwin Sabuhoro

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Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) are established to promote and act as a remedy to the protection of wildlife resources outside the core protected area. WMAs aim to address issues of poverty, ensure sustainable use of wildlife resources, and share benefits from wildlife with the member villages. Successfully managed WMA in Tanzania improves local livelihood and conserves local biodiversity through tourism revenues and the protection of wildlife, respectively. Benefits accrued at household levels as a result of conservation activities in WMA can positively influence attitudes towards wildlife conservation. This research intends to assess the positive socio-economic impacts of WMA benefits on households in Burunge WMA in Tanzania. A questionnaire survey was conducted among four randomly selected villages in the ten villages forming the Burunge WMA to explore the household-level benefits of conservation activities. An example of a question item was whether household heads feel that they are benefiting from WMA and if they could remember some of the benefits. Interviews with leaders from WMA and member villages combined the survey to capture aspects of benefit distribution to households. A total of 80 households were used as samples of the recruited study sites. Moreover, the four WMA leaders and the eight village leaders of the respective study villages were interviewed. The study findings revealed that the shared benefit has mostly reached the community level and is less likely to reach the household level. Economic activities such as agriculture and livestock keeping were found to be more important for households than conservation-related economic activities. Conservation-related economic activities generate marginal direct benefits from WMA benefits to households, with ecotourism accounting for only 19.5%. The study also indicates that a direct share of financial benefits from WMA to households is lacking. Wildlife conservation benefits are less likely to reach household levels in WMAs, with the implication of reducing people's conservation attitudes and impeding community conservation success. WMA can utilize the finances from tourism fees and concessions to establish a Community Considerations Bank, which can lend money to some individuals at no or low interest rates. Considering the importance of education and health to households, WMA stands in a good position to provide health insurance premiums and student scholarships to motivate household participation in conservation activities. Community-based organizations and governments responsible for wildlife conservation should create mechanisms to channel conservation benefits to households in order to ensure the achievement of wildlife conservation objectives through WMA. These findings are expected to contribute to forming more WMAs with enhanced mechanisms for sharing conservation benefits to benefit the conservation of natural resources outside of the core protected areas. Motivated households are expected to respect wildlife and are less likely to engage in illegal activities such as poaching and harvesting conserved natural resources while coexisting with wildlife.

Keywords: social economic benefits, individuals, wildlife management areas, biodiversity, community

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190 Effects of Culture Conditions on the Adhesion of Yeast Candida spp. and Pichia spp. to Stainless Steel with Different Polishing and Their Control

Authors: Ružica Tomičić, Zorica Tomičić, Peter Raspor

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An abundant growth of unwanted yeasts in food processing plants can lead to problems in quality and safety with significant financial losses. Candida and Pichia are the genera mainly involved in spoilage of products in the food and beverage industry. These contaminating microorganisms can form biofilms on food contact surfaces, being difficult to eradicate, increasing the probability of microbial survival and further dissemination during food processing. It is well known that biofilms are more resistant to antimicrobial agents compared to planktonic cells and this makes them difficult to eliminate. Among the strategies used to overcome resistance to antifungal drugs and preservatives, the use of natural substances such as plant extracts has shown particular promise, and many natural substances have been found to exhibit antifungal properties. This study aimed to investigated the impact of growth medium (Malt Extract broth (MEB) or Yeast Peptone Dextrose (YPD) broth) and temperatures (7°C, 37°C, 43°C for Candida strains and 7°C, 27°C, 32°C for Pichia strains) on the adhesion of Candida spp. and Pichia spp. to stainless steel (AISI 304) discs with different degrees of surface roughness (Ra = 25.20 – 961.9 nm), a material commonly used in the food industry. We also evaluated the antifungal and antiadhesion activity of plant extracts such as Humulus lupulus, Alpinia katsumadai and Evodia rutaecarpa against C. albicans, C glabrata and P. membranifaciens and investigated whether these plant extracts can interfere with biofilm formation. The adhesion was assessed by the crystal violet staining method, while the broth microdilution method CLSI M27-A3 was used to determine the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of plant extracts. Our results indicated that the nutrient content of the medium significantly influenced the amount of adhered cells of the tested yeasts. The growth medium which resulted in a higher adhesion of C. albicans and C. glabrata was MEB, while for C. parapsilosis and C. krusei was YPD. In the case of P. pijperi and P. membranifaciens, YPD broth was more effective in promoting adhesion than MEB. Regarding the effect of temperature, C. albicans strain adhered to stainless steel surfaces in significantly higher level at a temperature of 43°C, while on the other hand C. glabrata, C. parapsilosis and C. krusei showed a different behavior with significantly higher adhesion at 37°C than at 7°C and 43°C. Further, the adherence ability of Pichia strains was highest at 27°C. Based on the MIC values, all plant extracts exerted significant antifungal effects with MIC values ranged from 100 to 400 μg/mL. It was observed that biofilm of C. glabrata were more resistance to plant extracts as compared to C. albicans. However, extracts of A. katsumadai and E. rutaecarpa promoted the growth and development of the preformed biofilm of P. membranifaciens. Thus, the knowledge of how these microorganisms adhere and which factors affect this phenomenon is of great importance in order to avoid their colonization on food contact surfaces.

Keywords: adhesion, Candida spp., Pichia spp., plant extracts

Procedia PDF Downloads 176
189 Intelligent Cooperative Integrated System for Road Safety and Road Infrastructure Maintenance

Authors: Panagiotis Gkekas, Christos Sougles, Dionysios Kehagias, Dimitrios Tzovaras

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This paper presents the architecture of the “Intelligent cooperative integrated system for road safety and road infrastructure maintenance towards 2020” (ODOS2020) advanced infrastructure, which implements a number of cooperative ITS applications based on Internet of Things and Infrastructure-to-Vehicle (V2I) technologies with the purpose to enhance the active road safety level of vehicles through the provision of a fully automated V2I environment. The primary objective of the ODOS2020 project is to contribute to increased road safety but also to the optimization of time for maintenance of road infrastructure. The integrated technological solution presented in this paper addresses all types of vehicles and requires minimum vehicle equipment. Thus, the ODOS2020 comprises a low-cost solution, which is one of its main benefits. The system architecture includes an integrated notification system to transmit personalized information on road, traffic, and environmental conditions, in order for the drivers to receive real-time and reliable alerts concerning upcoming critical situations. The latter include potential dangers on the road, such as obstacles or road works ahead, extreme environmental conditions, etc., but also informative messages, such as information on upcoming tolls and their charging policies. At the core of the system architecture lies an integrated sensorial network embedded in special road infrastructures (strips) that constantly collect and transmit wirelessly information about passing vehicles’ identification, type, speed, moving direction and other traffic information in combination with environmental conditions and road wear monitoring and predictive maintenance data. Data collected from sensors is transmitted by roadside infrastructure, which supports a variety of communication technologies such as ITS-G5 (IEEE-802.11p) wireless network and Internet connectivity through cellular networks (3G, LTE). All information could be forwarded to both vehicles and Traffic Management Centers (TMC) operators, either directly through the ITS-G5 network, or to smart devices with Internet connectivity, through cloud-based services. Therefore, through its functionality, the system could send personalized notifications/information/warnings and recommendations for upcoming events to both road users and TMC operators. In the course of the ODOS2020 project pilot operation has been conducted to allow drivers of both C-ITS equipped and non-equipped vehicles to experience the provided added value services. For non-equipped vehicles, the provided information is transmitted to a smartphone application. Finally, the ODOS2020 system and infrastructure is appropriate for installation on both urban, rural, and highway environments. The paper presents the various parts of the system architecture and concludes by outlining the various challenges that had to be overcome during its design, development, and deployment in a real operational environment. Acknowledgments: Work presented in this paper was co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation (call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE) under contract no. Τ1EDK-03081 (project ODOS2020).

Keywords: infrastructure to vehicle, intelligent transportation systems, internet of things, road safety

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188 Concussion: Clinical and Vocational Outcomes from Sport Related Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Authors: Jack Nash, Chris Simpson, Holly Hurn, Ronel Terblanche, Alan Mistlin

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There is an increasing incidence of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) cases throughout sport and with this, a growing interest from governing bodies to ensure these are managed appropriately and player welfare is prioritised. The Berlin consensus statement on concussion in sport recommends a multidisciplinary approach when managing those patients who do not have full resolution of mTBI symptoms. There are as of yet no standardised guideline to follow in the treatment of complex cases mTBI in athletes. The aim of this project was to analyse the outcomes, both clinical and vocational, of all patients admitted to the mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) service at the UK’s Defence Military Rehabilitation Centre Headley Court between 1st June 2008 and 1st February 2017, as a result of a sport induced injury, and evaluate potential predictive indicators of outcome. Patients were identified from a database maintained by the mTBI service. Clinical and occupational outcomes were ascertained from medical and occupational employment records, recorded prospectively, at time of discharge from the mTBI service. Outcomes were graded based on the vocational independence scale (VIS) and clinical documentation at discharge. Predictive indicators including referral time, age at time of injury, previous mental health diagnosis and a financial claim in place at time of entry to service were assessed using logistic regression. 45 Patients were treated for sport-related mTBI during this time frame. Clinically 96% of patients had full resolution of their mTBI symptoms after input from the mTBI service. 51% of patients returned to work at their previous vocational level, 4% had ongoing mTBI symptoms, 22% had ongoing physical rehabilitation needs, 11% required mental health input and 11% required further vestibular rehabilitation. Neither age, time to referral, pre-existing mental health condition nor compensation seeking had a significant impact on either vocational or clinical outcome in this population. The vast majority of patients reviewed in the mTBI clinic had persistent symptoms which could not be managed in primary care. A consultant-led, multidisciplinary approach to the diagnosis and management of mTBI has resulted in excellent clinical outcomes in these complex cases. High levels of symptom resolution suggest that this referral and treatment pathway is successful and is a model which could be replicated in other organisations with consultant led input. Further understanding of both predictive and individual factors would allow clinicians to focus treatments on those who are most likely to develop long-term complications following mTBI. A consultant-led, multidisciplinary service ensures a large number of patients will have complete resolution of mTBI symptoms after sport-related mTBI. Further research is now required to ascertain the key predictive indicators of outcome following sport-related mTBI.

Keywords: brain injury, concussion, neurology, rehabilitation, sports injury

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187 Estimating Industrial Pollution Load in Phnom Penh by Industrial Pollution Projection System

Authors: Vibol San, Vin Spoann

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Manufacturing plays an important role in job creation around the world. In 2013, it is estimated that there were more than half a billion jobs in manufacturing. In Cambodia in 2015, the primary industry occupies 26.18% of the total economy, while agriculture is contributing 29% and the service sector 39.43%. The number of industrial factories, which are dominated by garment and textiles, has increased since 1994, mainly in Phnom Penh city. Approximately 56% out of total 1302 firms are operated in the Capital city in Cambodia. Industrialization to achieve the economic growth and social development is directly responsible for environmental degradation, threatening the ecosystem and human health issues. About 96% of total firms in Phnom Penh city are the most and moderately polluting firms, which have contributed to environmental concerns. Despite an increasing array of laws, strategies and action plans in Cambodia, the Ministry of Environment has encountered some constraints in conducting the monitoring work, including lack of human and financial resources, lack of research documents, the limited analytical knowledge, and lack of technical references. Therefore, the necessary information on industrial pollution to set strategies, priorities and action plans on environmental protection issues is absent in Cambodia. In the absence of this data, effective environmental protection cannot be implemented. The objective of this study is to estimate industrial pollution load by employing the Industrial Pollution Projection System (IPPS), a rapid environmental management tool for assessment of pollution load, to produce a scientific rational basis for preparing future policy direction to reduce industrial pollution in Phnom Penh city. Due to lack of industrial pollution data in Phnom Penh, industrial emissions to the air, water and land as well as the sum of emissions to all mediums (air, water, land) are estimated using employment economic variable in IPPS. Due to the high number of employees, the total environmental load generated in Phnom Penh city is estimated to be 476.980.93 tons in 2014, which is the highest industrial pollution compared to other locations in Cambodia. The result clearly indicates that Phnom Penh city is the highest emitter of all pollutants in comparison with environmental pollutants released by other provinces. The total emission of industrial pollutants in Phnom Penh shares 55.79% of total industrial pollution load in Cambodia. Phnom Penh city generates 189,121.68 ton of VOC, 165,410.58 ton of toxic chemicals to air, 38,523.33 ton of toxic chemicals to land and 28,967.86 ton of SO2 in 2014. The results of the estimation show that Textile and Apparel sector is the highest generators of toxic chemicals into land and air, and toxic metals into land, air and water, while Basic Metal sector is the highest contributor of toxic chemicals to water. Textile and Apparel sector alone emits 436,015.84 ton of total industrial pollution loads. The results suggest that reduction in industrial pollution could be achieved by focusing on the most polluting sectors.

Keywords: most polluting area, polluting industry, pollution load, pollution intensity

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186 Towards Automatic Calibration of In-Line Machine Processes

Authors: David F. Nettleton, Elodie Bugnicourt, Christian Wasiak, Alejandro Rosales

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In this presentation, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two different industrial winding MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) processes using machine learning techniques. In contrast to previous approaches which have typically used ‘black-box’ linear statistical methods together with a definition of the mechanical behavior of the process, we use non-linear machine learning algorithms together with a ‘white-box’ rule induction technique to create a supervised model of the fitting error between the expected and real force measures. The final objective is to build a precise model of the winding process in order to control de-tension of the material being wound in the first case, and the friction of the material passing through the die, in the second case. Case 1, Tension Control of a Winding Process. A plastic web is unwound from a first reel, goes over a traction reel and is rewound on a third reel. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the web tension and (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given tension. Case 2, Friction Force Control of a Micro-Pullwinding Process. A core+resin passes through a first die, then two winding units wind an outer layer around the core, and a final pass through a second die. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the friction on die2; (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given friction on die2. Different machine learning approaches are tested to build models, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression (with a Radial Basis Function Kernel) and MPART (Rule Induction with continuous value as output). As a previous step, the MPART rule induction algorithm was used to build an explicative model of the error (the difference between expected and real friction on die2). The modeling of the error behavior using explicative rules is used to help improve the overall process model. Once the models are built, the inputs are calibrated by generating Gaussian random numbers for each input (taking into account its mean and standard deviation) and comparing the output to a target (desired) output until a closest fit is found. The results of empirical testing show that a high precision is obtained for the trained models and for the calibration process. The learning step is the slowest part of the process (max. 5 minutes for this data), but this can be done offline just once. The calibration step is much faster and in under one minute obtained a precision error of less than 1x10-3 for both outputs. To summarize, in the present work two processes have been modeled and calibrated. A fast processing time and high precision has been achieved, which can be further improved by using heuristics to guide the Gaussian calibration. Error behavior has been modeled to help improve the overall process understanding. This has relevance for the quick optimal set up of many different industrial processes which use a pull-winding type process to manufacture fibre reinforced plastic parts. Acknowledgements to the Openmind project which is funded by Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, Grant Agreement number 680820

Keywords: data model, machine learning, industrial winding, calibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 215
185 Promoting Physical Activity through Urban Active Environments: Learning from Practice and Policy Implementation in the EU Space Project

Authors: Rosina U. Ndukwe, Diane Crone, Nick Cavill

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Active transport (i.e. walking to school, cycle to work schemes etc.) is an effective approach with multiple social and environmental benefits for transforming urban environments into active urban environments. Although walking and cycling often remain on the margins of urban planning and infrastructure, there are new approaches emerging, along with policy intervention relevant for the creation of sustainable urban active environments conductive to active travel, increasing physical activity levels of involved communities and supporting social inclusion through more active participation. SPAcE - Supporting Policy and Action for Active Environments is a 3 year Erasmus+ project that aims to integrate active transport programmes into public policy across the EU. SPAcE focuses on cities/towns with recorded low physical activity levels to support the development of active environments in 5 sites: Latvia [Tukums], Italy [Palermo], Romania [Brasov], Spain [Castilla-La Mancha] and Greece [Trikala]. The first part of the project involved a review of good practice including case studies from across the EU and project partner countries. This has resulted in the first output from the project, an evidence of good practice summary with case study examples. In the second part of the project, working groups across the 5 sites have carried out co-production to develop Urban Active Environments (UActivE) Action Plans aimed at influencing policy and practice for increasing physical activity primarily through the use of cycling and walking. Action plans are based on international evidence and guidance for healthy urban planning. Remaining project partners include Universities (Gloucestershire, Oxford, Zurich, Thessaly) and Fit for Life programme (National physical activity promotion program, Finland) who provide support and advice incorporating current evidence, healthy urban planning and mentoring. Cooperation and co-production with public health professionals, local government officers, education authorities and transport agencies has been a key approach of the project. The third stage of the project has involved training partners in the WHO HEAT tool to support the implementation of the Action Plans. Project results show how multi-agency, transnational collaboration can produce real-life Action Plans in five EU countries, based on published evidence, real-life experience, consultation and collaborative working with other organisations across the EU. Learning from the processes adopted within this project will demonstrate how public health, local government and transport agencies across the EU, can work together to create healthy environments that have the aim of facilitating active behaviour, even in times of constrained public budgets. The SPAcE project has captured both the challenges and solutions for increasing population physical activity levels, health and wellness in urban spaces and translating evidence into policy and practice ensuring innovation at policy level. Funding acknowledgment: SPAcE (www.activeenvironments.eu) is co-funded by the Sport action of the ERASMUS+ programme.

Keywords: action plans, active transport, SPAcE, UActivE urban active environments, walking and cycling

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
184 Reworking of the Anomalies in the Discounted Utility Model as a Combination of Cognitive Bias and Decrease in Impatience: Decision Making in Relation to Bounded Rationality and Emotional Factors in Intertemporal Choices

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.

Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience

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183 Generative Syntaxes: Macro-Heterophony and the Form of ‘Synchrony’

Authors: Luminiţa Duţică, Gheorghe Duţică

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One of the most powerful language innovation in the twentieth century music was the heterophony–hypostasis of the vertical syntax entered into the sphere of interest of many composers, such as George Enescu, Pierre Boulez, Mauricio Kagel, György Ligeti and others. The heterophonic syntax has a history of its growth, which means a succession of different concepts and writing techniques. The trajectory of settling this phenomenon does not necessarily take into account the chronology: there are highly complex primary stages and advanced stages of returning to the simple forms of writing. In folklore, the plurimelodic simultaneities are free or random and originate from the (unintentional) differences/‘deviations’ from the state of unison, through a variety of ornaments, melismas, imitations, elongations and abbreviations, all in a flexible rhythmic and non-periodic/immeasurable framework, proper to the parlando-rubato rhythmics. Within the general framework of the multivocal organization, the heterophonic syntax in elaborate (academic) version has imposed itself relatively late compared with polyphony and homophony. Of course, the explanation is simple, if we consider the causal relationship between the sound vocabulary elements – in this case, the modalism – and the typologies of vertical organization appropriate for it. Therefore, adding up the ‘classic’ pathway of the writing typologies (monody – polyphony – homophony), heterophony - applied equally to the structures of modal, serial or synthesis vocabulary – reclaims necessarily an own macrotemporal form, in the sense of the analogies enshrined by the evolution of the musical styles and languages: polyphony→fugue, homophony→sonata. Concerned about the prospect of edifying a new musical ontology, the composer Ştefan Niculescu experienced – along with the mathematical organization of heterophony according to his own original methods – the possibility of extrapolation of this phenomenon in macrostructural plan, reaching this way to the unique form of ‘synchrony’. Founded on coincidentia oppositorum principle (involving the ‘one-multiple’ binom), the sound architecture imagined by Ştefan Niculescu consists in one (temporal) model / algorithm of articulation of two sound states: 1. monovocality state (principle of identity) and 2. multivocality state (principle of difference). In this context, the heterophony becomes an (auto)generative mechanism, with macrotemporal amplitude, strategy that will be grown by the composer, practically throughout his creation (see the works: Ison I, Ison II, Unisonos I, Unisonos II, Duplum, Triplum, Psalmus, Héterophonies pour Montreux (Homages to Enescu and Bartók etc.). For the present demonstration, we selected one of the most edifying works of Ştefan Niculescu – Simphony II, Opus dacicum – where the form of (heterophony-)synchrony acquires monumental-symphonic features, representing an emblematic case for the complexity level achieved by this type of vertical syntax in the twentieth century music.

Keywords: heterophony, modalism, serialism, synchrony, syntax

Procedia PDF Downloads 317
182 Fear of Falling and Subjective Cognitive Decline Are Predictors of Fall Risk in Community-dwelling Older Adults Living in Low-income Settings

Authors: Ladda Thiamwong, Renata Komalasari

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Falls are the leading cause of disability and hospitalization in low-income older adults. Fear of falling is present in 20% to 85 % of older adults and has been identified as an independent risk factor of fall risk, activity restriction, and loss of independence. About 12% of American older adults have subjective cognitive decline. Cognitive impairment is also an established factor of fall risk. However, it is unclear whether measures of fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline have the greatest association with fall risk in low-income older adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP), and fall risk using simple screening tools. In this cross-section study, we collected data from community-dwelling older adults 60 years or older in low-income settings in Central Florida, and 86 participants were included in the data analysis. Fear of falling was assessed by the Short Fall Efficacy Scale- International (Short FES-I) with seven items. Subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP) was assessed by a self-reported experience of worsening or more frequent confusion or memory loss in the past 12 months and its functional implications. Fall risk was evaluated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Stay Independent checklist with 12 items. The majority of participants were female, and more than half of the participants were African American. More than half of the participants had a higher school degree or higher, and less than 20% had no financial problems. Less than 30% of the participants perceived their general health as very good- excellent. More than half of the participants lived alone, and less than 15% lived with a partner or spouse. About 60% of the participants had hypertension, 40% had diabetes, 16% had cancer, and 50% had arthritis. About 30% of the participants had difficulty walking up ten steps without resting, more than 40% felt unsteady when walking, and 30% had been advised to use a cane or walker to get around safely. Regression analysis showed that fall risk was associated with fear of falling ( = .524, p <.001) and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance ( = .465, p =.027). The structure coefficient showed that fear of falling (rs2 = .922) was a stronger predictor of fall risk than subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (rs2= .200). Fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance are growing public health issues, and addressing those issues is a public priority. Proactive screening for fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance is critical in fall prevention. A combination of all three self-reported tools (Short FES-I, SCD-FP, and CDC's Stay Independent checklist) takes less than 5 minutes to complete. Primary care providers or public health professionals should consider including these tools to screen fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance as part of fall risk assessment, especially in low-income settings. Thus, encouraging older adults and healthcare professionals to discuss fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline, and fall risk during routine medical office visits.

Keywords: falls, fall risk, fear of falling, cognition, subjective cognitive decline, low-income, older adults, community, screening, nursing, primary care

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
181 Study Protocol: Impact of a Sustained Health Promoting Workplace on Stock Price Performance and Beta - A Singapore Case

Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. The rationale for implementing a sustained health promoting workplace and participating in SHA is obvious when company management is convinced that healthier employees, business productivity, and profitability are positively correlated. However, performing research or empirical studies on the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock returns are not likely to yield any interests in the absence of a systematic and independent assessment on the comprehensiveness and sustainability of a health promoting workplace in most developed economies. The principles of diversification and mean-variance efficient portfolio in Modern Portfolio Theory developed by Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for the works of many financial economists and researchers, and among others, the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model from the work of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model of Fama and French (1992). This research seeks to support the rationale by studying whether there is a significant relationship or impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on the performance of companies listed on the SGX. The research shall form and test hypotheses pertaining to the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on company’s performances, including stock returns, of companies that participated in the SHA and companies that did not participate in the SHA. In doing so, the research would be able to determine whether corporate and fund manager should consider the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace as a risk factor to explain the stock returns of companies listed on the SGX. With respect to Singapore’s stock market, this research will test the significance and relevance of a health promoting workplace using the Singapore Health Award as a proxy for non-diversifiable risk factor to explain stock returns. This study will examine the significance of a health promoting workplace on a company’s performance and study its impact on stock price performance and beta and examine if it has higher explanatory power than the traditional single factor asset pricing model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To study the significance there are three key questions pertinent to the research study. I) Given a choice, would an investor be better off investing in a listed company with a sustained health promoting workplace i.e. a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? II) The Singapore Health Award has four levels of award starting from Bronze, Silver, Gold to Platinum. Would an investor be indifferent to the level of award when investing in a listed company who is a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? III) Would an asset pricing model combining FAMA-French Three Factor Model and ‘Singapore Health Award’ factor be more accurate than single factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Three Factor Model itself?

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock prices, sustained health promoting workplace

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180 The Importance of Value Added Services Provided by Science and Technology Parks to Boost Entrepreneurship Ecosystem in Turkey

Authors: Faruk Inaltekin, Imran Gurakan

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This paper will aim to discuss the importance of value-added services provided by Science and Technology Parks for entrepreneurship development in Turkey. Entrepreneurship is vital subject for all countries. It has not only fostered economic development but also promoted innovation at local and international levels. To foster high tech entrepreneurship ecosystem, Technopark (Science and Technology Park/STP) concept was initiated with the establishment of Silicon Valley in the 1950s. The success and rise of Silicon Valley led to the spread of technopark activities. Developed economies have been setting up projects to plan and build STPs since the 1960s and 1970s. To promote the establishment of STPs, necessary legislations were made by Ministry of Science, Industry, and Technology in 2001, Technology Development Zones Law (No. 4691) and it has been revised in 2016 to provide more supports. STPs’ basic aim is to provide customers high-quality office spaces with various 'value added services' such as business development, network connections, cooperation programs, investor/customers meetings and internationalization services. For this aim, STPs should help startups deal with difficulties in the early stages and to support mature companies’ export activities in the foreign market. STPs should support the production, commercialization and more significantly internationalization of technology-intensive business and foster growth of companies. Nowadays within this value-added services, internationalization is very popular subject in the world. Most of STPs design clusters or accelerator programs in order to support their companies in the foreign market penetration. If startups are not ready for international competition, STPs should help them to get ready for foreign market with training and mentoring sessions. These training and mentoring sessions should take a goal based approach to working with companies. Each company has different needs and goals. Therefore the definition of ‘success' varies for each company. For this reason, it is very important to create customized value added services to meet the needs of startups. After local supports, STPs should also be able to support their startups in foreign market. Organizing well defined international accelerator program plays an important role in this mission. Turkey is strategically placed between key markets in Europe, Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East. Its population is young and well educated. So both government agencies and the private sectors endeavor to foster and encourage entrepreneurship ecosystem with many supports. In sum, the task of technoparks with these and similar value added services is very important for developing entrepreneurship ecosystem. The priorities of all value added services are to identify the commercialization and growth obstacles faced by entrepreneurs and get rid of them with the one-to-one customized services. Also, in order to have a healthy startup ecosystem and create sustainable entrepreneurship, stakeholders (technoparks, incubators, accelerators, investors, universities, governmental organizations etc.) should fulfill their roles and/or duties and collaborate with each other. STPs play an important role as bridge for these stakeholders & entrepreneurs. STPs always should benchmark and renew services offered to how to help the start-ups to survive, develop their business and benefit from these stakeholders.

Keywords: accelerator, cluster, entrepreneurship, startup, technopark, value added services

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179 Data Quality on Regular Childhood Immunization Programme at Degehabur District: Somali Region, Ethiopia

Authors: Eyob Seife

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Immunization is a life-saving intervention which prevents needless suffering through sickness, disability, and death. Emphasis on data quality and use will become even stronger with the development of the immunization agenda 2030 (IA2030). Quality of data is a key factor in generating reliable health information that enables monitoring progress, financial planning, vaccine forecasting capacities, and making decisions for continuous improvement of the national immunization program. However, ensuring data of sufficient quality and promoting an information-use culture at the point of the collection remains critical and challenging, especially in hard-to-reach and pastoralist areas where Degehabur district is selected based on a hypothesis of ‘there is no difference in reported and recounted immunization data consistency. Data quality is dependent on different factors where organizational, behavioral, technical, and contextual factors are the mentioned ones. A cross-sectional quantitative study was conducted on September 2022 in the Degehabur district. The study used the world health organization (WHO) recommended data quality self-assessment (DQS) tools. Immunization tally sheets, registers, and reporting documents were reviewed at 5 health facilities (2 health centers and 3 health posts) of primary health care units for one fiscal year (12 months) to determine the accuracy ratio. The data was collected by trained DQS assessors to explore the quality of monitoring systems at health posts, health centers, and the district health office. A quality index (QI) was assessed, and the accuracy ratio formulated were: the first and third doses of pentavalent vaccines, fully immunized (FI), and the first dose of measles-containing vaccines (MCV). In this study, facility-level results showed both over-reporting and under-reporting were observed at health posts when computing the accuracy ratio of the tally sheet to health post reports found at health centers for almost all antigens verified where pentavalent 1 was 88.3%, 60.4%, and 125.6% for Health posts A, B, and C respectively. For first-dose measles-containing vaccines (MCV), similarly, the accuracy ratio was found to be 126.6%, 42.6%, and 140.9% for Health posts A, B, and C, respectively. The accuracy ratio for fully immunized children also showed 0% for health posts A and B and 100% for health post-C. A relatively better accuracy ratio was seen at health centers where the first pentavalent dose was 97.4% and 103.3% for health centers A and B, while a first dose of measles-containing vaccines (MCV) was 89.2% and 100.9% for health centers A and B, respectively. A quality index (QI) of all facilities also showed results between the maximum of 33.33% and a minimum of 0%. Most of the verified immunization data accuracy ratios were found to be relatively better at the health center level. However, the quality of the monitoring system is poor at all levels, besides poor data accuracy at all health posts. So attention should be given to improving the capacity of staff and quality of monitoring system components, namely recording, reporting, archiving, data analysis, and using information for decision at all levels, especially in pastoralist areas where such kinds of study findings need to be improved beside to improving the data quality at root and health posts level.

Keywords: accuracy ratio, Degehabur District, regular childhood immunization program, quality of monitoring system, Somali Region-Ethiopia

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178 The Effect of Political Characteristics on the Budget Balance of Local Governments: A Dynamic System Generalized Method of Moments Data Approach

Authors: Stefanie M. Vanneste, Stijn Goeminne

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This paper studies the effect of political characteristics of 308 Flemish municipalities on their budget balance in the period 1995-2011. All local governments experience the same economic and financial setting, however some governments have high budget balances, while others have low budget balances. The aim of this paper is to explain the differences in municipal budget balances by a number of economic, socio-demographic and political variables. The economic and socio-demographic variables will be used as control variables, while the focus of this paper will be on the political variables. We test four hypotheses resulting from the literature, namely (i) the partisan hypothesis tests if left wing governments have lower budget balances, (ii) the fragmentation hypothesis stating that more fragmented governments have lower budget balances, (iii) the hypothesis regarding the power of the government, higher powered governments would resolve in higher budget balances, and (iv) the opportunistic budget cycle to test whether politicians manipulate the economic situation before elections in order to maximize their reelection possibilities and therefore have lower budget balances before elections. The contributions of our paper to the existing literature are multiple. First, we use the whole array of political variables and not just a selection of them. Second, we are dealing with a homogeneous database with the same budget and election rules, making it easier to focus on the political factors without having to control for the impact of differences in the political systems. Third, our research extends the existing literature on Flemish municipalities as this is the first dynamic research on local budget balances. We use a dynamic panel data model. Because of the two lagged dependent variables as explanatory variables, we employ the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. This is the best possible estimator as we are dealing with political panel data that is rather persistent. Our empirical results show that the effect of the ideological position and the power of the coalition are of less importance to explain the budget balance. The political fragmentation of the government on the other hand has a negative and significant effect on the budget balance. The more parties in a coalition the worse the budget balance is ceteris paribus. Our results also provide evidence of an opportunistic budget cycle, the budget balances are lower in pre-election years relative to the other years to try and increase the incumbents reelection possibilities. An additional finding is that the incremental effect of the budget balance is very important and should not be ignored like is being done in a lot of empirical research. The coefficients of the lagged dependent variables are always positive and very significant. This proves that the budget balance is subject to incrementalism. It is not possible to change the entire policy from one year to another so the actions taken in recent past years still have an impact on the current budget balance. Only a relatively small amount of research concerning the budget balance takes this considerable incremental effect into account. Our findings survive several robustness checks.

Keywords: budget balance, fragmentation, ideology, incrementalism, municipalities, opportunistic budget cycle, panel data, political characteristics, power, system GMM

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177 The Location of Park and Ride Facilities Using the Fuzzy Inference Model

Authors: Anna Lower, Michal Lower, Robert Masztalski, Agnieszka Szumilas

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Contemporary cities are facing serious congestion and parking problems. In urban transport policy the introduction of the park and ride system (P&R) is an increasingly popular way of limiting vehicular traffic. The determining of P&R facilities location is a key aspect of the system. Criteria for assessing the quality of the selected location are formulated generally and descriptively. The research outsourced to specialists are expensive and time consuming. The most focus is on the examination of a few selected places. The practice has shown that the choice of the location of these sites in a intuitive way without a detailed analysis of all the circumstances, often gives negative results. Then the existing facilities are not used as expected. Methods of location as a research topic are also widely taken in the scientific literature. Built mathematical models often do not bring the problem comprehensively, e.g. assuming that the city is linear, developed along one important communications corridor. The paper presents a new method where the expert knowledge is applied to fuzzy inference model. With such a built system even a less experienced person could benefit from it, e.g. urban planners, officials. The analysis result is obtained in a very short time, so a large number of the proposed location can also be verified in a short time. The proposed method is intended for testing of car parks location in a city. The paper will show selected examples of locations of the P&R facilities in cities planning to introduce the P&R. The analysis of existing objects will also be shown in the paper and they will be confronted with the opinions of the system users, with particular emphasis on unpopular locations. The research are executed using the fuzzy inference model which was built and described in more detail in the earlier paper of the authors. The results of analyzes are compared to documents of P&R facilities location outsourced by the city and opinions of existing facilities users expressed on social networking sites. The research of existing facilities were conducted by means of the fuzzy model. The results are consistent with actual users feedback. The proposed method proves to be good, but does not require the involvement of a large experts team and large financial contributions for complicated research. The method also provides an opportunity to show the alternative location of P&R facilities. The performed studies show that the method has been confirmed. The method can be applied in urban planning of the P&R facilities location in relation to the accompanying functions. Although the results of the method are approximate, they are not worse than results of analysis of employed experts. The advantage of this method is ease of use, which simplifies the professional expert analysis. The ability of analyzing a large number of alternative locations gives a broader view on the problem. It is valuable that the arduous analysis of the team of people can be replaced by the model's calculation. According to the authors, the proposed method is also suitable for implementation on a GIS platform.

Keywords: fuzzy logic inference, park and ride system, P&R facilities, P&R location

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176 Development of DNDC Modelling Method for Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Emission from Arable Soils in European Russia

Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

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