Search results for: semantic model

Authors: Paolo Russu

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The purpose of the present paper is to highlight some features of an economic growth model with environmental negative externalities, giving rise to a three-dimensional dynamic system. In particular, we show that the economy, which is based on a Perfect-Substitution Technologies function of production, has no neither indeterminacy nor poverty trap. This implies that equilibrium select by economy depends on the history (initial values of state variable) of the economy rather than on expectations of economies agents. Moreover, by contrast, we prove that the basin of attraction of locally equilibrium points may be very large, as they can extend up to the boundary of the system phase space. The infinite-horizon optimal control problem has the purpose of maximizing the representative agent’s instantaneous utility function depending on leisure and consumption.

Keywords: Hopf bifurcation, open-access natural resources, optimal control, perfect-substitution technologies, Poincarè compactification

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Authors: Prakash Singh

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Far-reaching organizational and structural changes are required to address the severe imbalances in the provision and strong bureaucratic controls in many organizations at all levels. Transformational collegial leadership (TCL) is a collective action generated by transforming leadership which empowers all individuals who participate in this process, whether it is in business or education, or in any other organization. Recent research is strongly supportive of collegiality as a key factor in transforming traditional bureaucratic management practices (TBMPs) in organizations. The primary objective of this study was therefore to gauge the extent to which organizations have affected a shift from TBMPs towards TCL and how this can affect the development of human resources. This qualitative study investigated the impact of TCL on developing human resources in two organizations which were purposively selected to participate in this study. The findings of this study affirm that human resource development and TCL embrace the values of collaboration, confrontation, authenticity, trust, support and openness. In order to overcome TBMPs, a clear sense of direction must be communicated by collegial leaders throughout their organizations so that lower-level employees can initiate actions without the same degree of vulnerability. The TCL approach must respond to needs amongst followers and must look for motives, extrinsic and intrinsic, to satisfy those needs by enhancing opportunities, empowering people and giving more freedom, performance evaluation and the full support of the leader. Evidently, the collegial model emphasizes the valuing of individuals where there is a breadth of leadership and an absence of hierarchy.

Keywords: bureaucratic management model, human resource development, transformational collegial leadership model, transforming leader

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Authors: Awol Mekonnen, Temesgen Sidamo, Epherm Engdawork, Kaleab Asresb

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Ethnopharmacological Relevance: The leaves of Kalanchoe petitiana A. Rich (Crassulaceae) are used in Ethiopian folk medicine for treatment of evil eye, fractured surface for bone setting and several skin disorders including for the treatment of sores, boils, and malignant wounds. Aim of the Study: In order to scientifically prove the claimed utilization of the plant, the effects of the extracts and the fractions were investigated using in vivo excision, incision and dead space wound models. Materials and Method: Mice were used for wound healing study, while rats and rabbit were used for skin irritation test. For studying healing activity, 80% methanolic extract and the fractions were formulated in strength of 5% and 10%, either as ointment (hydroalcoholic extract, aqueous and methanol fractions) or gel (chloroform fraction). Oral administration of the crude extract was used for dead space model. Negative controls were treated either with simple ointment or sodium carboxyl methyl cellulose xerogel, while positive controls were treated with nitrofurazone (0.2 w/v) skin ointment. Negative controls for dead space model were treated with 1% carboxy methyl cellulose. Parameters, including rate of wound contraction, period of complete epithelializtion, hydroxyproline contents and skin breaking strength were evaluated. Results: Significant wound healing activity was observed with ointment formulated from the crude extract at both 5% and 10% concentration (p<0.01) compared to controls in both excision and incision models. In dead space model, 600 mg/kg (p<0.01), but not 300 mg/kg, significantly increased hydroxyproline content. Fractions showed variable effect, with the chloroform fraction lacking any significant effect. Both 5% and 10% formulations of the aqueous and methanolic fractions significantly increased wound contraction, decreased epithelializtion time and increased hydroxyproline content in excision wound model (p<0.05) as compared to controls. These fractions were also endowed with higher skin breaking strength in incision wound model (p<0.01). Conclusions: The present study provided evidence that the leaves of Kalanchoe petitiana A. Rich possess remarkable wound healing activities supporting the folkloric assertion of the plant. Fractionation revealed that polar or semi-polar compound may play vital role, as both aqueous and methanolic fractions were endowed with wound healing activity.

Keywords: wound healing, Kalanchoae petitiana, excision wound, incision wound, dead space model

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Authors: Jeison Sánchez Araya, Cesar Garita, Giannina Ortiz

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In many Latin American countries, including Costa Rica, the poor condition of national road bridges significantly hinders socioeconomic progress. Addressing this issue, this article introduces a computational method designed to evaluate and monitor bridge health over time. It outlines a business intelligence model that facilitates data storage from bridge inspections and supports structural health index calculations. A Power BI prototype displays crucial visualizations that improve decision making on infrastructure investments. This approach leverages business intelligence and hierarchical visualization techniques, offering a solution to quantitatively assess bridge health and prioritize investments in national infrastructure efficiently.

Keywords: bridges, business intelligence, structural health index, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Conrad Weber

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The modelling of railway noise over large projects areas can be very time consuming in terms of preparing the noise models and calculation time. An open-source GIS program has been utilised to assist with the modelling of operational noise levels for 675km of railway corridor. A range of GIS algorithms were utilised to break up the noise model area into manageable calculation sizes. GIS was utilised to prepare and filter a range of noise modelling inputs, including building files, land uses and ground terrain. A spreadsheet was utilised to manage the accuracy of key input parameters, including train speeds, train types, curve corrections, bridge corrections and engine notch settings. GIS was utilised to present the final noise modelling results. This paper explains the noise modelling process and how the spreadsheet and GIS were utilised to accurately model this massive project efficiently.

Keywords: noise, modeling, GIS, rail

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Authors: G. S. Androulakis, G. Deli, M. Kaisari, N. Mihos

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Teaching practices at the university level have changed and developed during the last decade. Implementation of inverted classroom method in secondary education consists of a well-formed basis for academic teachers. On the other hand, distance learning is a well-known field in education research and widespread as a method of teaching. Nonetheless, the new pandemic found many Universities all over the world unprepared, which made adaptations to new methods of teaching a necessity. In this paper, we analyze a model of an inverted university classroom in a distance learning context. Thus, the main purpose of our research is to investigate students’ difficulties as they transit to a new style of teaching and explore their learning development during a semester totally different from others. Our teaching experiment took place at the Business Administration department of the University of Patras, in the context of two courses: Calculus, a course aimed at first-year students, and Statistics, a course aimed at second-year students. Second-year students had the opportunity to attend courses in the university classroom. First-year students started their semester with distance learning. Using a comparative study of these two groups, we explored significant differences in students’ learning procedures. Focused group interviews, written tests, analyses of students’ dialogues were used in a mixed quantity and quality research. Our analysis reveals students’ skills, capabilities but also a difficulty in following, non-traditional style of teaching. The inverted classroom model, according to our findings, offers benefits in the educational procedure, even in a distance learning environment.

Keywords: distance learning, higher education, inverted classroom, mathematics teaching

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Authors: Michael Nicolosi, Karola Dillenburger

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The University of California at Los Angeles-Young Autism Project (UCLA-YAP) provides one of the best-known and most researched comprehensive applied behavior analysis-based intervention models for young children on the autism spectrum. This paper reports a systematic literature review of replication studies over more than 30 years. The data show that the relatively high-intensity UCLA-YAP model can be greatly beneficial for children on the autism spectrum, particularly with regard to their cognitive functioning and adaptive behavior. This review concludes that, while more research is always welcome, the impact of the UCLA-YAP model on autism interventions is justified by more than 30 years of outcome evidence.

Keywords: ABA, applied behavior analysis, autism, California at Los Angeles Young Autism project, intervention, Lovaas, UCLA-YAP

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Authors: Navid Zarif Karimi, Hossein Heidary, Giangiacomo Minak, Mehdi Ahmadi

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In this paper analytical model based on the mechanics of oblique cutting, linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and bending plate theory has been presented to determine the critical feed rate causing delamination in drilling of composite materials. Most of the models in this area used LEFM and bending plate theory; hence, they can only determine the critical thrust force which is an incorporable parameter. In this model by adding cutting oblique mechanics to previous models, critical feed rate has been determined. Also instead of simplification in loading condition, actual thrust force induced by chisel edge and cutting lips on composite plate is modeled.

Keywords: composite material, delamination, drilling, thrust force

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Authors: Margarita Zavala, Gabriel Chavira, José González, Jorge Orozco, Julio Rolón, Roberto Pichardo

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Adolescence is a neuralgic stage in the formation of every human being, generally this stage is when the middle school level is studied. In 2006, Mexico incorporated 'mentoring' space to assist students in their integration and participation in life. In public middle schools, it is sometimes difficult to be aware of situations that affect students because of the number of them and traditional records management. With this, they lose the opportunity to provide timely support as a preventive way. In order to provide this support, it is required to know the students by detecting the relevant information that has greater impact on their learning process. This research is looking to check if it is possible to identify student’s relevant information to detect when it is at risk, and then to propose a model to manage in a proper way such information.

Keywords: adolescence, mentoring, middle school students, mentoring system support

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Authors: Narava Manose

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Distillation is a very old separation technology for separating liquid mixtures that can be traced back to the chemists in Alexandria in the first century A. D. Today distillation is the most important industrial separation technology. By the eleventh century, distillation was being used in Italy to produce alcoholic beverages. At that time, distillation was probably a batch process based on the use of just a single stage, the boiler. The word distillation is derived from the Latin word destillare, which means dripping or trickling down. By at least the sixteenth century, it was known that the extent of separation could be improved by providing multiple vapor-liquid contacts (stages) in a so called Rectifactorium. The term rectification is derived from the Latin words rectefacere, meaning to improve. Modern distillation derives its ability to produce almost pure products from the use of multi-stage contacting. Throughout the twentieth century, multistage distillation was by far the most widely used industrial method for separating liquid mixtures of chemical components.The basic principle behind this technique relies on the different boiling temperatures for the various components of the mixture, allowing the separation between the vapor from the most volatile component and the liquid of other(s) component(s). •Developed a simple non-linear model of a binary distillation column using Skogestad equations in Simulink. •We have computed the steady-state operating point around which to base our analysis and controller design. However, the model contains two integrators because the condenser and reboiler levels are not controlled. One particular way of stabilizing the column is the LV-configuration where we use D to control M_D, and B to control M_B; such a model is given in cola_lv.m where we have used two P-controllers with gains equal to 10.

Keywords: modelling, distillation column, control, binary distillation

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Authors: A. Samer Ezeldin, Sarah A. Fotouh

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Optimization of resources is very important in all fields, as in construction management. Project managers have to face problems regarding management of cost, time and available resources of single projects and more problems arise when managing multiple projects. Most of the studies focused on optimization of resources for a single project, but, this paper will discuss the design and modeling of multiple resources optimization for multiple projects using Genetic Algorithm. Most of the companies in construction industry optimize the resources for single projects only, but with the presence of several mega projects in several developing countries running at the same time, there is a need for a model to enhance the efficiency of available resources and decreases the fluctuation as much as possible. The proposed model calculates the cost of each resource, tries to minimize the cost of extra resources as much as possible and generates the schedule of each project within a selected program.

Keywords: construction management, genetic algorithm, multiple projects, multiple resources, optimization

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Authors: C. B. Le, V. N. Pham

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In modern data analysis, multi-source data appears more and more in real applications. Multi-source data clustering has emerged as a important issue in the data mining and machine learning community. Different data sources provide information about different data. Therefore, multi-source data linking is essential to improve clustering performance. However, in practice multi-source data is often heterogeneous, uncertain, and large. This issue is considered a major challenge from multi-source data. Ensemble is a versatile machine learning model in which learning techniques can work in parallel, with big data. Clustering ensemble has been shown to outperform any standard clustering algorithm in terms of accuracy and robustness. However, most of the traditional clustering ensemble approaches are based on single-objective function and single-source data. This paper proposes a new clustering ensemble method for multi-source data analysis. The fuzzy optimized multi-objective clustering ensemble method is called FOMOCE. Firstly, a clustering ensemble mathematical model based on the structure of multi-objective clustering function, multi-source data, and dark knowledge is introduced. Then, rules for extracting dark knowledge from the input data, clustering algorithms, and base clusterings are designed and applied. Finally, a clustering ensemble algorithm is proposed for multi-source data analysis. The experiments were performed on the standard sample data set. The experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of the FOMOCE method compared to the existing clustering ensemble methods and multi-source clustering methods.

Keywords: clustering ensemble, multi-source, multi-objective, fuzzy clustering

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Authors: Junior Nomani

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This paper presents a novel approach to modelling the metal cutting of duplex stainless steels, a two-phase alloy regarded as a difficult-to-machine material. Calculation and control of shear strain and stresses during cutting are essential to achievement of ideal cutting conditions. Too low or too high leads to higher required cutting force or excessive heat generation causing premature tool wear failure. A 2D finite element cutting model was created based on electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) data imagery of duplex microstructure. A mesh was generated using ‘object-oriented’ software OOF2 version V2.1.11, converting microstructural images to quadrilateral elements. A virtual workpiece was created on ABAQUS modelling software where a rigid body toolpiece advanced towards workpiece simulating chip formation, generating serrated edge chip formation cutting. Model results found calculated stress strain contour plots correlated well with similar finite element models tied with austenite stainless steel alloys. Virtual chip form profile is also similar compared experimental frozen machining chip samples. The output model data provides new insight description of strain behavior of two phase material on how it transitions from workpiece into the chip.

Keywords: Duplex stainless steel, ABAQUS, OOF2, Chip formation

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Authors: Chansheng He, Zhongfu Wang, Xiao Bai, Jie Tian, Xin Jin

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Heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties directly affects hydrological processes at different scales. Understanding heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties such as soil moisture is therefore essential for modeling watershed ecohydrological processes, particularly in hard to access, topographically complex mountainous watersheds. This study maps spatial variations of soil moisture by in situ observation network that consists of sampling points, zones, and tributaries, and monitors corresponding hydrological variables of air and soil temperatures, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and runoff in the Upper Reach of the Heihe River Watershed, a second largest inland river (terminal lake) with a drainage area of over 128,000 km² in Northwest China. Subsequently, the study uses a hydrological model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate the effects of heterogeneity of soil moisture on watershed hydrological processes. The spatial clustering method, Full-Order-CLK was employed to derive five soil heterogeneous zones (Configuration 97, 80, 65, 40, and 20) for soil input to SWAT. Results show the simulations by the SWAT model with the spatially clustered soil hydraulic information from the field sampling data had much better representation of the soil heterogeneity and more accurate performance than the model using the average soil property values for each soil type derived from the coarse soil datasets. Thus, incorporating detailed field sampling soil heterogeneity data greatly improves performance in hydrologic modeling.

Keywords: heterogeneity, soil moisture, SWAT, up-scaling

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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The creation of a seismic prediction model that considers all the regional variations and perfectly adjusts its results to the response spectra is very complicated. To achieve statistically acceptable results, it is necessary to process a sufficiently robust data set, and even if high efficiencies are achieved, this model will only work properly in this region. However, when using it in other regions, differences are found due to different parameters that have not been calibrated to other regions, such as the site effect. The fact that impedance contrasts, as well as other factors belonging to the site, have a great influence on the local response is well known, which is why this work, using the residual method, is intended to establish a regional calibration of the corresponding parameters site effect for the Spain region in the global GMPM BSSA 14.

Keywords: GMPM, seismic prediction equations, residual method, response spectra, impedance contrast

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Authors: A. Shoiynbek, K. Kozhakhmet, P. Menezes, D. Kuanyshbay, D. Bayazitov

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Speech emotion recognition has received increasing research interest all through current years. There was used emotional speech that was collected under controlled conditions in most research work. Actors imitating and artificially producing emotions in front of a microphone noted those records. There are four issues related to that approach, namely, (1) emotions are not natural, and it means that machines are learning to recognize fake emotions. (2) Emotions are very limited by quantity and poor in their variety of speaking. (3) There is language dependency on SER. (4) Consequently, each time when researchers want to start work with SER, they need to find a good emotional database on their language. In this paper, we propose the approach to create an automatic tool for speech emotion extraction based on facial emotion recognition and describe the sequence of actions of the proposed approach. One of the first objectives of the sequence of actions is a speech detection issue. The paper gives a detailed description of the speech detection model based on a fully connected deep neural network for Kazakh and Russian languages. Despite the high results in speech detection for Kazakh and Russian, the described process is suitable for any language. To illustrate the working capacity of the developed model, we have performed an analysis of speech detection and extraction from real tasks.

Keywords: deep neural networks, speech detection, speech emotion recognition, Mel-frequency cepstrum coefficients, collecting speech emotion corpus, collecting speech emotion dataset, Kazakh speech dataset

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Authors: Mohamed Othmani, Yassine Khlifi

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This paper presents a technique for compact three dimensional (3D) object model reconstruction using wavelet networks. It consists to transform an input surface vertices into signals,and uses wavelet network parameters for signal approximations. To prove this, we use a wavelet network architecture founded on several mother wavelet families. POLYnomials WindOwed with Gaussians (POLYWOG) wavelet families are used to maximize the probability to select the best wavelets which ensure the good generalization of the network. To achieve a better reconstruction, the network is trained several iterations to optimize the wavelet network parameters until the error criterion is small enough. Experimental results will shown that our proposed technique can effectively reconstruct an irregular 3D object models when using the optimized wavelet network parameters. We will prove that an accurateness reconstruction depends on the best choice of the mother wavelets.

Keywords: 3d object, optimization, parametrization, polywog wavelets, reconstruction, wavelet networks

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Authors: Feng-Tsung Cheng, Shu-Li Wang, Mei-Fang Wu, , Hui-Yu Chuang

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Due to the rapid development of modern technology, the widespread usage of the Internet makes business environment changing quickly. In order to be a leader in the global competitive market and to pursuit survive, “changing” becomes an unspoken rules need to follow for the company survival. The purpose of this paper is to build change model by using SWOT, strategy map, and balance scorecard, KPI and change management theory. The research findings indicate that organizational change plan formulated by the case company should require the employee to resist change factors and performance management system issues into consideration and must be set organizational change related programs, such as performance appraisal reward system, consulting and counseling mechanisms programs to improve motivation and reduce staff negative emotions. Then according to the model revised strategy maps and performance indicators proposed in this paper, such as strategy maps add and modify corporate culture, improve internal processes management, increase the growth rate of net income and other strategies. The performance indicators are based on strategy maps new and modified by adding net income growth rate, to achieve target production rate, manpower training achievement rates and other indicators, through amendments to achieve the company’s goal, be a leading brand of precision machinery industry.

Keywords: organizational change, SWOT analysis, strategy maps, performance indicators

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Authors: Pongsatorn Tantrabundit, Lersak Phothong, Ong-art Chanprasitchai

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Due to the emergence of the Internet, it has extended the traditional Word-of-Mouth (WOM) to a new form called “Electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM).” Unlike traditional WOM, eWOM is able to present information in various ways by applying different components. Each eWOM component generates different effects on online consumer behavior. This research investigates the effects of Webcare (responding message) from product/ service providers on negative eWOM by applying two types of products (search and experience). The proposed conceptual model was developed based on the combination of the stages in consumer decision-making process, theory of reasoned action (TRA), theory of planned behavior (TPB), the technology acceptance model (TAM), the information integration theory and the elaboration likelihood model. The methodology techniques used in this study included multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The results suggest that Webcare does slightly increase Thai online consumer’s perceptions on perceived eWOM trustworthiness, information diagnosticity and quality. For negative eWOM, we also found that perceived eWOM Trustworthiness, perceived eWOM diagnosticity and quality have a positive relationship with eWOM influence whereas perceived valence has a negative relationship with eWOM influence in Thai online consumers.

Keywords: consumer behavior, electronic word-of-mouth, online review, online word-of-mouth, Thai online consumer, webcare

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Authors: Taehan Lee

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We consider a network design problem which has shortest routing restriction based on the values determined by the installed facilities on each arc. In conventional multicommodity network design problem, a commodity can be routed through any possible path when the capacity is available. But, we consider a problem in which the commodity between two nodes must be routed on a path which has shortest metric value and the link metric value is determined by the installed facilities on the link. By this routing restriction, the problem has a distinct characteristic. We present an integer programming formulation containing the primal-dual optimality conditions to the shortest path routing. We give some computational results for the model.

Keywords: integer programming, multicommodity network design, routing, shortest path

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Authors: Michael Tilahun Mulugeta

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users as they are more exposed to the risk of collusion. Pedestrian safety at road intersections still remains the most vital and yet unsolved issue in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. One of the critical points in pedestrian safety is the occurrence of conflict between turning vehicle and pedestrians at un-signalized intersection. However, a better understanding of the factors that affect the likelihood of the conflicts would help provide direction for countermeasures aimed at reducing the number of crashes. This paper has sorted to explore a model to describe the relation between traffic conflicts and influencing factors using Multiple Linear regression methodology. In this research the main focus is to study the interaction of turning (left & right) vehicle with pedestrian at unsignalized intersections. The specific objectives also to determine factors that affect the number of potential conflicts and develop a model of potential conflict.

Keywords: potential, regression analysis, pedestrian, conflicts

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Authors: Chen Xi, Lao Xuerui, Li Junjie, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Zeng Zihao

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To further promote the development of smart cities, the microscopic "nerve endings" of the City Intelligent Model (CIM) are extended to be more sensitive. In this paper, we develop a pedestrian trajectory twin terminal based on the CIM and CNN technology. It also uses 5G networks, architectural and geoinformatics technologies, convolutional neural networks, combined with deep learning networks for human behaviour recognition models, to provide empirical data such as 'pedestrian flow data and human behavioural characteristics data', and ultimately form spatial performance evaluation criteria and spatial performance warning systems, to make the empirical data accurate and intelligent for prediction and decision making.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial intelligence, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Marziyeh Khavari

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In recent decades, climate change, global warming, and the growing population worldwide face some challenges, such as increasing food consumption and shortage of resources. Assessing how climate change could disturb crops, especially hazelnut production, seems crucial for sustainable agriculture production. For hazelnut cultivation in the mid-warm condition, such as in Iran, here we present an investigation of climate parameters and how much they are effective on fertility and nut production of hazelnut trees. Therefore, the climate change of the northern zones in Iran has investigated (1960-2017) and was reached an uptrend in temperature. Furthermore, the descriptive analysis performed on six cultivars during seven years shows how this small-scale survey could demonstrate the effects of climate change on hazelnut production and stability. Results showed that some climate parameters are more significant on nut production, such as solar radiation, soil temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. Moreover, some cultivars have produced more stable production, for instance, Negret and Segorbe, while the Mervill de Boliver recorded the most variation during the study. Another aspect that needs to be met is training and predicting an actual model to simulate nut production through a neural network and linear regression simulation. The study developed and estimated the ANN model's generalization capability with different criteria such as RMSE, SSE, and accuracy factors for dependent and independent variables (environmental and yield traits). The models were trained and tested while the accuracy of the model is proper to predict hazelnut production under fluctuations in weather parameters.

Keywords: climate change, neural network, hazelnut, global warming

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Authors: Didiosky Benítez-Erice, Frederik Questier, Dalgys Pérez-Luján

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This paper aims to present two models around the production of students’ experiential knowledge in the teaching-learning process of higher education: the teacher-centered production model and the student-centered production model. From a range of knowledge management and experiential learning theories, the paper elaborates into the nature of students’ experiential knowledge and proposes further adjustments of existing second-generation knowledge management theories taking into account the particularities of higher education. Despite its theoretical nature the paper can be relevant for future studies that stress student-driven improvement and innovation at higher education institutions.

Keywords: experiential knowledge, higher education, knowledge management, teaching-learning process

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Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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In many countries, the construction industry relies heavily on outsourcing models in executing their projects and expanding their businesses to fit in the diverse market. Such extensive integration of subcontractors is becoming an influential factor in contractor’s cash flow management. Accordingly, subcontractors’ financial terms are important phenomena and pivotal components for the well-being of the contractor’s cash flow. The aim of this research is to study the contractor’s cash flow with respect to the owner and subcontractor’s payment management plans, considering variable advance payment, payment frequency, and lag and retention policies. The model is developed to provide contractors with a decision support tool that can assist in selecting the optimum subcontracting plan to minimize the contractor’s financing limits and optimize the profit values. The model is built using Microsoft Excel VBA coding, and the genetic algorithm is utilized as the optimization tool. Three objective functions are investigated, which are minimizing the highest negative overdraft value, minimizing the net present worth of overdraft, and maximizing the project net profit. The model is validated on a full-scale project which includes both self-performed and subcontracted work packages. The results show potential outputs in optimizing the contractor’s negative cash flow values and, in the meantime, assisting contractors in selecting suitable subcontractors to achieve the objective function.

Keywords: cash flow optimization, payment plan, procurement management, subcontracting plan

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Authors: Vicente Espinola, Luis Torres, Christhian Gonzalez

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Entrepreneurship is a topic of current interest in Mexico and the World, which has been fostered through public policies with great impact on its generation. The strategies used in Mexico have not been successful, being motivational strategies aimed at the masses with the intention that someone in the process generates a venture. The strategies used for its development have been "picking of winners" favoring those who have already overcome the initial stages of undertaking without effective support. This situation shows a disarticulation that appears even more in social entrepreneurship; due to this, it is relevant to research on those elements that could develop them and thus integrate a model of entrepreneurship and social innovation for Mexico. Social entrepreneurship should be generating social innovation, which is translated into business models in order to make the benefits reach the population. These models are proposed putting the social impact before the economic impact, without forgetting its sustainability in the medium and long term. In this work, we present a simple model of innovation and social entrepreneurship for Guanajuato, Mexico. This algorithm was based on how social innovation could be generated in a systemic way for Mexico through different institutions that promote innovation. In this case, the technological parks of the state of Guanajuato were studied because these are considered one of the areas of Mexico where its main objectives are to make technology transfer to companies but overlooking the social sector and entrepreneurs. An experimental design of n = 60 was carried out with potential entrepreneurs to identify their perception of the social approach that the enterprises should have, the skills they consider required to create a venture, as well as their interest in generating ventures that solve social problems. This experiment had a 2K design, the value of k = 3 and the computational simulation was performed in R statistical language. A simple model of interconnected variables is proposed, which allows us to identify where it is necessary to increase efforts for the generation of social enterprises. The 96.67% of potential entrepreneurs expressed interest in ventures that solve social problems. In the analysis of the variables interaction, it was identified that the isolated development of entrepreneurial skills would only replicate the generation of traditional ventures. The variable of social approach presented positive interactions, which may influence the generation of social entrepreneurship if this variable was strengthened and permeated in the processes of training and development of entrepreneurs. In the future, it will be necessary to analyze the institutional actors that are present in the social entrepreneurship ecosystem, in order to analyze the interaction necessary to strengt the innovation and social entrepreneurship ecosystem.

Keywords: social innovation, model, entrepreneurship, technological parks

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

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The present work examines the suitability of a seasonal forecasting model downscaled with a very high spatial resolution in order to assess the energy performance and requirements of buildings. The application of the developed model is applied on Greece for a period and with a forecast horizon of 5 months in the future. Greece, as a country in the middle of a financial crisis and facing serious societal challenges, is also very sensitive to climate changes. The commonly used method for the correlation of climate change with the buildings energy consumption is the concept of Degree Days (DD). This method can be applied to heating and cooling systems for a better management of environmental, economic and energy crisis, and can be used as medium (3-6 months) planning tools in order to predict the building needs and country’s requirements for residential energy use.

Keywords: downscaled seasonal models, degree days, energy performance

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Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

Abstract:

Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, J. Adeyemo

Abstract:

Anaerobic modeling is a useful tool to describe and simulate the condition and behaviour of anaerobic treatment units for better effluent quality and biogas generation. The present investigation deals with the anaerobic treatment of brewery wastewater with varying organic loads. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS) of the influent and effluent of the bioreactor were determined at various retention times to generate data for kinetic coefficients. The bio-kinetic coefficients in the modified Stover–Kincannon kinetic and methane generation models were determined to study the performance of anaerobic digestion process. At steady-state, the determination of the kinetic coefficient (K), the endogenous decay coefficient (Kd), the maximum growth rate of microorganisms (µmax), the growth yield coefficient (Y), ultimate methane yield (Bo), maximum utilization rate constant Umax and the saturation constant (KB) in the model were calculated to be 0.046 g/g COD, 0.083 (dˉ¹), 0.117 (d-¹), 0.357 g/g, 0.516 (L CH4/gCODadded), 18.51 (g/L/day) and 13.64 (g/L/day) respectively. The outcome of this study will help in simulation of anaerobic model to predict usable methane and good effluent quality during the treatment of industrial wastewater. Thus, this will protect the environment, conserve natural resources, saves time and reduce cost incur by the industries for the discharge of untreated or partially treated wastewater. It will also contribute to a sustainable long-term clean development mechanism for the optimization of the methane produced from anaerobic degradation of waste in a close system.

Keywords: brewery wastewater, methane generation model, environment, anaerobic modeling

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Authors: David Gottlieb, Jason Yoder

Abstract:

The feeling of loneliness is not uncommon in modern society, and yet, there is a fundamental lack of understanding in its origins and purpose in nature. One interpretation of loneliness is that it is a subjective experience that punishes a lack of social behavior, and thus its emergence in human evolution is seemingly tied to the survival of early human tribes. Still, a common counterintuitive response to loneliness is a state of hypervigilance, resulting in social withdrawal, which may appear maladaptive to modern society. So far, no computational model of loneliness’ effect during evolution yet exists; however, agent-based models (ABM) can be used to investigate social behavior, and applying evolution to agents’ behaviors can demonstrate selective advantages for particular behaviors. We propose an ABM where each agent contains four social behaviors, and one goal-seeking behavior, letting evolution select the best behavioral patterns for resource allocation. In our paper, we use an algorithm similar to the boid model to guide the behavior of agents, but expand the set of rules that govern their behavior. While we use cohesion, separation, and alignment for simple social movement, our expanded model adds goal-oriented behavior, which is inspired by particle swarm optimization, such that agents move relative to their personal best position. Since agents are given the ability to form connections by interacting with each other, our final behavior guides agent movement toward its social connections. Finally, we introduce a mechanism to represent a state of loneliness, which engages when an agent's perceived social involvement does not meet its expected social involvement. This enables us to investigate a minimal model of loneliness, and using evolution we attempt to elucidate its value in human survival. Agents are placed in an environment in which they must acquire resources, as their fitness is based on the total resource collected. With these rules in place, we are able to run evolution under various conditions, including resource-rich environments, and when disease is present. Our simulations indicate that there is strong selection pressure for social behavior under circumstances where there is a clear discrepancy between initial resource locations, and against social behavior when disease is present, mirroring hypervigilance. This not only provides an explanation for the emergence of loneliness, but also reflects the diversity of response to loneliness in the real world. In addition, there is evidence of a richness of social behavior when loneliness was present. By introducing just two resource locations, we observed a divergence in social motivation after agents became lonely, where one agent learned to move to the other, who was in a better resource position. The results and ongoing work from this project show that it is possible to glean insight into the evolutionary advantages of even simple mechanisms of loneliness. The model we developed has produced unexpected results and has led to more questions, such as the impact loneliness would have at a larger scale, or the effect of creating a set of rules governing interaction beyond adjacency.

Keywords: agent-based, behavior, evolution, loneliness, social

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