Search results for: regression modeling of extremes

Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

Abstract:

Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: M. Khal, Ab. Algouti, A. Algouti

Abstract:

Water erosion is the major cause of the erosion that shapes the earth's surface. Modeling water erosion requires the use of software and GIS programs, commercial or closed source. The very high prices for commercial GIS licenses, motivates users and researchers to find open source software as relevant and applicable as the proprietary GIS. The objective of this study is the modeling of water erosion and the hydrogeological and morphophysical characterization of the Oued M'Goun watershed (southern flank of the Central High Atlas) developed by free programs of GIS. The very pertinent results are obtained by executing tasks and algorithms in a simple and easy way. Thus, the various geoscientific and geostatistical analyzes of a digital elevation model (SRTM 30 m resolution) and their combination with the treatments and interpretation of satellite imagery information allowed us to characterize the region studied and to map the area most vulnerable to water erosion.

Keywords: central High-Atlas, hydrogeology, M’Goun watershed, OpenGis, water erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: C. Patrascioiu, Cao Minh Ahn

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The paper presents the research evolution in the propylene – propane distillation process, especially for the distillation columns equipped with heat pump. The paper is structured in three parts: separation of the propylene-propane mixture, steady state process modeling, and quality control systems. The first part is dedicated to state of art of the two distillation processes. The second part continues the author’s researches of the steady state process modeling. There has been elaborated a software simulation instrument that may be used to dynamic simulation of the process and to design the quality control systems. The last part presents the research of the control systems, especially for quality control systems.

Keywords: absorption, distillation, heat pump, Unisim design

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, František Pochylý, Simona Fialová, Vladimír Habán

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A mathematical model of the additional effects of the liquid in the hydrodynamic gap is presented in the paper. An in-compressible viscous fluid is considered. Based on computational modeling are determined the matrices of mass, stiffness and damping. The mathematical model is experimentally verified.

Keywords: computational modeling, mathematical model, hydrodynamic gap, matrices of mass, stiffness and damping

Procedia PDF Downloads 528

Authors: Oke Oktavianty, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Junji Kaneko, Ken Kaminishi

Abstract:

Modelica has many advantages and it is very useful in modeling and simulation especially for the multi-domain with a complex technical system. However, the big obstacle for a beginner is to understand the basic concept and to build a new system model for a real system. In order to understand how to solve the simple circuit model by hand translation and to get a better understanding of how modelica works, we provide a detailed explanation about solver ordering system in horizontal and vertical sorting and make some proposals for improvement. In this study, some difficulties in using modelica software with the original concept and the comparison with Finite Element Method (FEM) approach is discussed. We also present our textual modeling approach using FEM concept for acausal and causal model construction. Furthermore, simulation results are provided that demonstrate the comparison between using textual modeling with original coding in modelica and FEM concept.

Keywords: FEM, a causal model, modelica, horizontal and vertical sorting

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Azher Jameel, Ghulam Ashraf Harmain

Abstract:

In the recent years, the enriched techniques like the extended finite element method, the element free Galerkin method, and the Coupled finite element-element free Galerkin method have found wide application in modeling different types of discontinuities produced by cracks, contact surfaces, and bi-material interfaces. The extended finite element method faces severe mesh distortion issues while modeling large deformation problems. The element free Galerkin method does not have mesh distortion issues, but it is computationally more demanding than the finite element method. The coupled FE-EFGM proves to be an efficient numerical tool for modeling large deformation problems as it exploits the advantages of both FEM and EFGM. The present paper employs the coupled FE-EFGM to model large elastoplastic deformations in bi-material engineering components. The large deformation occurring in the domain has been modeled by using the total Lagrangian approach. The non-linear elastoplastic behavior of the material has been represented by the Ramberg-Osgood model. The elastic predictor-plastic corrector algorithms are used for the evaluation stresses during large deformation. Finally, several numerical problems are solved by the coupled FE-EFGM to illustrate its applicability, efficiency and accuracy in modeling large elastoplastic deformations in bi-material samples. The results obtained by the proposed technique are compared with the results obtained by XFEM and EFGM. A remarkable agreement was observed between the results obtained by the three techniques.

Keywords: XFEM, EFGM, coupled FE-EFGM, level sets, large deformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Fadi Eleiwi, Taous Meriem Laleg-Kirati

Abstract:

This paper presents a complete dynamic modeling of a membrane distillation process. The model contains two consistent dynamic models. A 2D advection-diffusion equation for modeling the whole process and a modified heat equation for modeling the membrane itself. The complete model describes the temperature diffusion phenomenon across the feed, membrane, permeate containers and boundary layers of the membrane. It gives an online and complete temperature profile for each point in the domain. It explains heat conduction and convection mechanisms that take place inside the process in terms of mathematical parameters, and justify process behavior during transient and steady state phases. The process is monitored for any sudden change in the performance at any instance of time. In addition, it assists maintaining production rates as desired, and gives recommendations during membrane fabrication stages. System performance and parameters can be optimized and controlled using this complete dynamic model. Evolution of membrane boundary temperature with time, vapor mass transfer along the process, and temperature difference between membrane boundary layers are depicted and included. Simulations were performed over the complete model with real membrane specifications. The plots show consistency between 2D advection-diffusion model and the expected behavior of the systems as well as literature. Evolution of heat inside the membrane starting from transient response till reaching steady state response for fixed and varying times is illustrated.

Keywords: membrane distillation, dynamical modeling, advection-diffusion equation, thermal equilibrium, heat equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Pouya Kaafi, Gholamreza Ghodrati Amiri

Abstract:

Abnormal loads due to natural events, implementation errors and some other issues can lead to occurrence of progressive collapse in structures. Most of the past researches consist of 2- Dimensional (2D) models of steel frames without consideration of the floor system effects, which reduces the accuracy of the modeling. While employing a 3-Dimensional (3D) model and modeling the concrete slab system for the floors have a crucial role in the progressive collapse evaluation. In this research, a 3D finite element model of a 5-story steel building is modeled by the ABAQUS software once with modeling the slabs, and the next time without considering them. Then, the progressive collapse potential is evaluated. The results of the analyses indicate that the lack of the consideration of the slabs during the analyses, can lead to inaccuracy in assessing the progressive failure potential of the structure.

Keywords: abnormal loads, composite floor system, intermediate steel moment resisting frame system, progressive collapse

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Mohammed Abdullah Alshahrani

Abstract:

The research focuses on investigating the use of partial least squares (PLS) methodology for addressing challenges associated with high-dimensional correlated data. Recent technological advancements have led to experiments producing data characterized by a large number of variables compared to observations, with substantial inter-variable correlations. Such data patterns are common in chemometrics, where near-infrared (NIR) spectrometer calibrations record chemical absorbance levels across hundreds of wavelengths, and in genomics, where thousands of genomic regions' copy number alterations (CNA) are recorded from cancer patients. PLS serves as a widely used method for analyzing high-dimensional data, functioning as a regression tool in chemometrics and a classification method in genomics. It handles data complexity by creating latent variables (components) from original variables. However, applying PLS can present challenges. The study investigates key areas to address these challenges, including unifying interpretations across three main PLS algorithms and exploring unusual negative shrinkage factors encountered during model fitting. The research presents an alternative approach to addressing the interpretation challenge of predictor weights associated with PLS. Sparse estimation of predictor weights is employed using a penalty function combining a lasso penalty for sparsity and a Cauchy distribution-based penalty to account for variable dependencies. The results demonstrate sparse and grouped weight estimates, aiding interpretation and prediction tasks in genomic data analysis. High-dimensional data scenarios, where predictors outnumber observations, are common in regression analysis applications. Ordinary least squares regression (OLS), the standard method, performs inadequately with high-dimensional and highly correlated data. Copy number alterations (CNA) in key genes have been linked to disease phenotypes, highlighting the importance of accurate classification of gene expression data in bioinformatics and biology using regularized methods like PLS for regression and classification.

Keywords: partial least square regression, genetics data, negative filter factors, high dimensional data, high correlated data

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Authors: Paria Soleimani, Arezoo Neshati

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of ‎death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the patient ‎reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result of ‎impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to ‎coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of a ‎heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense, but ‎most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then early ‎detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to save ‎them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system designing to ‎assist physicians in the early diagnosis of the acute heart attacks is ‎obvious.‎ The purpose of this study is to determine how well a predictive ‎model would perform based on the only patient-reportable clinical ‎history factors, without using diagnostic tests or physical exams. This ‎type of the prediction model might have application outside of the ‎hospital setting to give accurate advice to patients to influence them to ‎seek care in appropriate situations. For this purpose, the data were ‎collected on 711 heart patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical ‎factors can be reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic ‎regression models were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict ‎the risk of heart attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of ‎performance had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. ‎The variables, severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of ‎breath, nausea, and vomiting were selected as the main features.‎

Keywords: Coronary heart disease, Acute heart attacks, Prediction, Logistic ‎regression‎

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: Manish Pandey, Gurinderjit Kaur, Meenu Talwar, Sachin Chauhan, Jagbir Gill

Abstract:

Health-care management systems are a unit of nice connection as a result of the supply a straightforward and fast management of all aspects relating to a patient, not essentially medical. What is more, there are unit additional and additional cases of pathologies during which diagnosing and treatment may be solely allotted by victimization medical imaging techniques. With associate ever-increasing prevalence, medical pictures area unit directly acquired in or regenerate into digital type, for his or her storage additionally as sequent retrieval and process. Data Mining is the process of extracting information from large data sets through using algorithms and Techniques drawn from the field of Statistics, Machine Learning and Data Base Management Systems. Forecasting may be a prediction of what's going to occur within the future, associated it's an unsure method. Owing to the uncertainty, the accuracy of a forecast is as vital because the outcome foretold by foretelling the freelance variables. A forecast management should be wont to establish if the accuracy of the forecast is within satisfactory limits. Fuzzy regression strategies have normally been wont to develop shopper preferences models that correlate the engineering characteristics with shopper preferences relating to a replacement product; the patron preference models offer a platform, wherever by product developers will decide the engineering characteristics so as to satisfy shopper preferences before developing the merchandise. Recent analysis shows that these fuzzy regression strategies area units normally will not to model client preferences. We tend to propose a Testing the strength of Exponential Regression Model over regression toward the mean Model.

Keywords: health-care management systems, fuzzy regression, data mining, forecasting, fuzzy membership function

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: W. Soufi, F. Boukli Hacene, S. Ghalem

Abstract:

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease that leads to a progressive and permanent deterioration of nerve cells. This disease is progressively accompanied by an intellectual deterioration leading to psychological manifestations and behavioral disorders that lead to a loss of autonomy. It is the most frequent of degenerative dementia. Alzheimer's disease (AD), which affects a growing number of people, has become a major public health problem in a few years. In the context of the study of the mechanisms governing the evolution of AD disease, we have found that natural flavonoids are good acetylcholinesterase inhibitors that reduce the rate of ßA secretion in neurons. This work is to study the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) which is an enzyme involved in Alzheimer's disease, by methods of molecular modeling. These results will probably help in the development of an effective therapeutic tool in the fight against the development of Alzheimer's disease. Our goal of the research is to study the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) by molecular modeling methods.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, acetylcholinesterase, flavonoids, molecular modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Sangeeta Palekar, Neeraj Rangwani, Akash Poddar, Jayu Kalambe

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The bio-medical analysis is an indispensable procedure for identifying health-related diseases like diabetes. Monitoring the glucose level in our body regularly helps us identify hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia, which can cause severe medical problems like nerve damage or kidney diseases. This paper presents a method for predicting the glucose concentration in blood samples using image processing and machine learning algorithms. The glucose solution is prepared by the glucose oxidase (GOD) and peroxidase (POD) method. An experimental database is generated based on the colorimetric technique. The image of the glucose solution is captured by the raspberry pi camera and analyzed using image processing by extracting the RGB, HSV, LUX color space values. Regression algorithms like multiple linear regression, decision tree, RandomForest, and XGBoost were used to predict the unknown glucose concentration. The multiple linear regression algorithm predicts the results with 97% accuracy. The image processing and machine learning-based approach reduce the hardware complexities of existing platforms.

Keywords: artificial intelligence glucose detection, glucose oxidase, peroxidase, image processing, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Kehinde Peter Oyeduntan, Kayode Oshinubi

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Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the spark plug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria in terms of its GDP.

Keywords: maritime transport, economy, GDP, regression, port

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Maha Zouaoui Khalifa, Hakim Ben Othman, Hussaney Khaled

Abstract:

Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Azin Shakibabarough, Ashutosh Bagchi

Abstract:

Facilities such as residential buildings, office buildings, and hospitals house large density of occupants. Therefore, a low-cost facility management program (FMP) should be used to provide a satisfactory built environment for these occupants. Facility management (FM) has been recently used in building projects as a critical task. It has been effective in reducing operation and maintenance cost of these facilities. Issues of information integration and visualization capabilities are critical for reducing the complexity and cost of FM. Building information modeling (BIM) can be used as a strong visual modeling tool and database in FM. The main objective of this study is to examine the applicability of BIM in the FM process during a building’s operational phase. For this purpose, a seven-storey office building is modeled Autodesk Revit software. Authors integrated the cloud-based environment using a visual programming tool, Dynamo, for the purpose of having a real-time cloud-based communication between the facility managers and the participants involved in the project. An appropriate and effective integrated data source and visual model such as BIM can reduce a building’s operational and maintenance costs by managing the building life cycle properly.

Keywords: building information modeling, facility management, operational phase, building life cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Hemin Yuan, Yun Wang, Xiangchun Wang

Abstract:

Gas hydrate is drawing attention due to the fact that it has an enormous amount all over the world, which is almost twice the conventional hydrocarbon reserves, making it a potential alternative source of energy. It is widely distributed in permafrost and continental ocean shelves, and many countries have launched national programs for investigating the gas hydrate. Gas hydrate is mainly explored through seismic methods, which include bottom simulating reflectors (BSR), amplitude blanking, and polarity reverse. These seismic methods are effective at finding the gas hydrate formations but usually contain large uncertainties when applying to invert the micro-scale petrophysical properties of the formations due to lack of constraints. Rock physics modeling links the micro-scale structures of the rocks to the macro-scale elastic properties and can work as effective constraints for the seismic methods. A number of rock physics models have been proposed for gas hydrate modeling, which addresses different mechanisms and applications. However, these models are generally not well classified, and it is confusing to determine the appropriate model for a specific study. Moreover, since the modeling usually involves multiple models and steps, it is difficult to determine the source of uncertainties. To solve these problems, we summarize the developed models/methods and make four classifications of the models according to the hydrate micro-scale morphology in sediments, the purpose of reservoir characterization, the stage of gas hydrate generation, and the lithology type of hosting sediments. Some sub-categories may overlap each other, but they have different priorities. Besides, we also analyze the priorities of different models, bring up the shortcomings, and explain the appropriate application scenarios. Moreover, by comparing the models, we summarize a general workflow of the modeling procedure, which includes rock matrix forming, dry rock frame generating, pore fluids mixing, and final fluid substitution in the rock frame. These procedures have been widely used in various gas hydrate modeling and have been confirmed to be effective. We also analyze the potential sources of uncertainties in each modeling step, which enables us to clearly recognize the potential uncertainties in the modeling. In the end, we explicate the general problems of the current models, including the influences of pressure and temperature, pore geometry, hydrate morphology, and rock structure change during gas hydrate dissociation and re-generation. We also point out that attenuation is also severely affected by gas hydrate in sediments and may work as an indicator to map gas hydrate concentration. Our work classifies rock physics models of gas hydrate into different categories, generalizes the modeling workflow, analyzes the modeling uncertainties and potential problems, which can facilitate the rock physics characterization of gas hydrate bearding sediments and provide hints for future studies.

Keywords: gas hydrate, rock physics model, modeling classification, hydrate morphology

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Saeed Eskandari, Seyed Rasoul Mehdikhani

Abstract:

Radiation sources have been used in many industries, such as gamma sources in medical imaging. These waves have destructive effects on humans and the environment. It is very important to detect and find the source of these waves because these sources cannot be seen by the eye. A portable robot has been designed and built with the purpose of revealing radiation sources that are able to scan the place from 5 to 20 meters away and shows the location of the sources according to the intensity of the waves on a two-dimensional digital image. The operation of the robot is done by measuring the pixels separately. By increasing the image measurement resolution, we will have a more accurate scan of the environment, and more points will be detected. But this causes a lot of time to be spent on scanning. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, we designed a method that can optimize this time. In this method, a small number of important points of the environment are measured. Hence the remaining pixels are predicted and estimated by regression algorithms in machine learning. The research method is based on comparing the actual values of all pixels. These steps have been repeated with several other radiation sources. The obtained results of the study show that the values estimated by the regression method are very close to the real values.

Keywords: regression, machine learning, scan radiation, robot

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Ali S. Gargoum

Abstract:

Graphical modeling plays an important role in providing efficient probability calculations in high dimensional problems (computational efficiency). In this paper, we address one of such problems where we discuss fragmenting puff models and some distributional assumptions concerning models for the instantaneous, emission readings and for the fragmenting process. A graphical representation in terms of a junction tree of the conditional probability breakdown of puffs and puff fragments is proposed.

Keywords: graphical models, influence diagrams, junction trees, Bayesian nets

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Mohammad Sheikhalishahi, Vahid Ebrahimipour, Amir Hossein Radman-Kian

Abstract:

This paper proposes an Ontology framework for knowledge modeling and representation of the equipment integrity process in a typical oil and gas production plant. Our aim is to construct a knowledge modeling that facilitates translation, interpretation, and conversion of human-readable integrity interpretation into computer-readable representation. The framework provides a function structure related to fault propagation using ISO 14224 and ISO 15926 OWL-Lite/ Resource Description Framework (RDF) to obtain a generic system-level model of asset integrity that can be utilized in the integrity engineering process during the equipment life cycle. It employs standard terminology developed by ISO 15926 and ISO 14224 to map textual descriptions of equipment failure and then convert it to a causality-driven logic by semantic interpretation and computer-based representation using Lite/RDF. The framework applied for an offshore gas riser. The result shows that the approach can cross-link the failure-related integrity words and domain-specific logic to obtain a representation structure of equipment integrity with causality inference based on semantic extraction of inspection report context.

Keywords: asset integrity modeling, interoperability, OWL, RDF/XML

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, mike21, sediment

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-François Plante, Michel Gamache

Abstract:

This study introduces the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs' processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW's ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. it employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW, comparing its performance against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. the results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial datasets, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: deep learning, multi-layer neural networks, gradient descent, spatial interpolation, inverse distance weighting

Procedia PDF Downloads 18

Authors: Muhammad Fanseem E. M., Rama Satya Satish Kumar, Indrajeet Bhausaheb Bhavar, Deepak M.

Abstract:

Keeping the right balance of electricity between the supply and demand sides of the grid is one of the most important objectives of electrical grid operation. Power generation and demand forecasting are the core of power management and generation scheduling. Large, centralized producing units were used in the construction of conventional power systems in the past. A certain level of balance was possible since the generation kept up with the power demand. However, integrating renewable energy sources into power networks has proven to be a difficult challenge due to its intermittent nature. The power imbalance caused by rising demands and peak loads is negatively affecting power quality and dependability. Demand side management and demand response were one of the solutions, keeping generation the same but altering or rescheduling or shedding completely the load or demand. However, shedding the load or rescheduling is not an efficient way. There comes the significance of virtual power plants. The virtual power plant integrates distributed generation, dispatchable load, and distributed energy storage organically by using complementing control approaches and communication technologies. This would eventually increase the utilization rate and financial advantages of distributed energy resources. Most of the writing on virtual power plant models ignored technical limitations, and modeling was done in favor of a financial or commercial viewpoint. Therefore, this paper aims to address the modeling intricacies of VPPs and their technical limitations, shedding light on a holistic understanding of this innovative power management approach.

Keywords: cost optimization, distributed energy resources, dynamic modeling, model quality tests, power system modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Khalifa Maha, Ben Othman Hakim, Khaled Hussainey

Abstract:

Prior empirical studies have investigated the economic consequences of accounting conservatism by examining its impact on the cost of equity capital (COEC). However, findings are not conclusive. We assume that inconsistent results of such association may be attributed to the regression models used in data analysis. To address this issue, we re-examine the effect of different dimension of accounting conservatism: unconditional conservatism (U_CONS) and conditional conservatism (C_CONS) on the COEC for a sample of listed firms from Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) countries, applying quantile regression (QR) approach developed by Koenker and Basset (1978). While classical ordinary least square (OLS) method is widely used in empirical accounting research, however it may produce inefficient and bias estimates in the case of departures from normality or long tail error distribution. QR method is more powerful than OLS to handle this kind of problem. It allows the coefficient on the independent variables to shift across the distribution of the dependent variable whereas OLS method only estimates the conditional mean effects of a response variable. We find as predicted that U_CONS has a significant positive effect on the COEC however, C_CONS has a negative impact. Findings suggest also that the effect of the two dimensions of accounting conservatism differs considerably across COEC quantiles. Comparing results from QR method with those of OLS, this study throws more lights on the association between accounting conservatism and COEC.

Keywords: unconditional conservatism, conditional conservatism, cost of equity capital, OLS, quantile regression, emerging markets, MENA countries

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

Abstract:

Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Jing Yuan, Hongwei Yang

Abstract:

This paper aims to understand U.S. middle school students’ mathematics achievements by examining relevant student and school-level predictors. Through a variance component analysis, the study first identifies evidence supporting the use of multilevel modeling. Then, a multilevel analysis is performed under Bayesian statistical inference where prior information is incorporated into the modeling process. During the analysis, independent variables are entered sequentially in the order of theoretical importance to create a hierarchy of models. By evaluating each model using Bayesian fit indices, a best-fit and most parsimonious model is selected where Bayesian statistical inference is performed for the purpose of result interpretation and discussion. The primary dataset for Bayesian modeling is derived from the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) in 2012 with a secondary PISA dataset from 2003 analyzed under the traditional ordinary least squares method to provide the information needed to specify informative priors for a subset of the model parameters. The dependent variable is a composite measure of mathematics literacy, calculated from an exploratory factor analysis of all five PISA 2012 mathematics achievement plausible values for which multiple evidences are found supporting data unidimensionality. The independent variables include demographics variables and content-specific variables: mathematics efficacy, teacher-student ratio, proportion of girls in the school, etc. Finally, the entire analysis is performed using the MCMCpack and MCMCglmm packages in R.

Keywords: Bayesian multilevel modeling, mathematics education, PISA, multilevel

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Mustafa Tosun, Kevser Dincer

Abstract:

In this study, analysis on whether the lightweight concrete walled structures used in four climatic regions of Turkey are also capable of insulating sound was conducted. As a new approach, first the wall’s thermal insulation sufficiency’s were calculated and then, artificial neural network (ANN) modeling was used on their cross sections to check if they are sound transmitters too. The ANN was trained and tested by using MATLAB toolbox on a personal computer. ANN input parameters that used were thickness of lightweight concrete wall, frequency and density of lightweight concrete wall, while the transmitted sound was the output parameter. When the results of the TS analysis and those of ANN modeling are evaluated together, it is found from this study, that sound transmit loss increases at higher frequencies, higher wall densities and with larger wall cross sections.

Keywords: artificial neuron network, lightweight concrete, sound insulation, sound transmit loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

Abstract:

This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Anahita Aris

Abstract:

Geometry always plays a key role in natural structures, which can be a source of inspiration for architects and urban designers to create spaces. By understanding formative principles in nature, a variety of options can be provided that lead to freedom of formation. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the geometrical order found in pomegranate to find formative principles explaining its complex structure. The point is how spherical arils of pomegranate pressed together inside the fruit and filled the space as they expand in the growing process, which made a self-organized system leads to the formation of each of the arils are unique in size, topology and shape. The main challenge of this paper would be using advanced architectural modeling techniques to discover these principles.

Keywords: advanced modeling techniques, architectural modeling, computational design, the geometry of natural formation, geometrical analysis, the natural order of pomegranate, voronoi diagrams

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Hochan Seok, Woosik Jang, Seung-Heon Han

Abstract:

The stagnant global construction market has intensified competition since 2008 among firms that aim to win overseas contracts. Against this backdrop, subcontractor selection is identified as one of the most critical success factors in overseas construction project. However, it is difficult to select qualified subcontractors due to the lack of evaluation standards and reliability. This study aims to identify the problems associated with existing subcontractor evaluations using a correlations analysis and a multiple regression analysis with pre-qualification and performance evaluation of 121 firms in six countries.

Keywords: subcontractor evaluation system, pre-qualification, performance evaluation, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 344