Search results for: flood vulnerability

Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

Abstract:

Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi & Boualem Remini

Abstract:

Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater, intrusion, sharp interface, Algeria

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Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

Abstract:

Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

Abstract:

Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Roy Y. C. Huang, J. S. Kuang, Hamdolah Behnam

Abstract:

Beam-column connections play an important role in the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame (RCMRF), which is one of the most commonly used structural systems around the world. The premature failure of such connections would severely limit the seismic performance and increase the vulnerability of RCMRF. In the past decades, researchers primarily focused on investigating the structural behaviour and failure mechanisms of conventional beam-column joints, the beam width of which is either smaller than or equal to the column width, while studies in wide beam-column joints were scarce. This paper presents the preliminary experimental results of two full-scale exterior wide beam-column connections, which are mainly designed and detailed according to ACI 318-14 and ACI 352R-02, under reversed cyclic loading. The ratios of the design shear force to the nominal shear strength of these specimens are 1.0 and 1.7, respectively, so as to probe into differences of the joint shear strength between experimental results and predictions by design codes of practice. Flexural failure dominated in the specimen with ratio of 1.0 in which full-width plastic hinges were observed, while both beam hinges and post-peak joint shear failure occurred for the other specimen. No sign of premature joint shear failure was found which is inconsistent with ACI codes’ prediction. Finally, a modification of current codes of practice is provided to accurately predict the joint shear strength in wide beam-column joint.

Keywords: joint shear strength, reversed cyclic loading, seismic vulnerability, wide beam-column joints

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi, Boualem Remini

Abstract:

Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater intrusion, sharp interface, coastal aquifer, algeria

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Authors: Jihan Zakarriya

Abstract:

This paper aims at examining the concepts of gender vulnerability, militarized spaces and environmental degradation in Egyptian novelist Radwa Ashour’s Specters (1999) and Iraqi novelist Betool Khadiri’s Absent (2005). Although the socio-economic, environmental and political conditions in the 1990s- Egypt and Iraq are different, this paper argues that Ashour’s Specters and Khadiri’s Absent show the two societies as sharing a concern with the politics of public participation, individual freedom and political violence. For example, while Specters exposes the planned processes of economic-political and cultural violence towards Egyptian environment and people that undermine concepts of justice, equality and democracy, Absent shows the destructive effects of the systematic, successive waves of (international) militarized interferences and socio-economic sanctions imposed on Iraq following the Gulf War that hinder efforts of social development and kindle ethnic-religious violence and polarization in the country. This paper investigates and relates issues of gender, environmental and political violence and repression in Ashour’s Specters and Khadiri’s Absent in relation to the concepts of public space and security in the two countries. The paper argues that the selected novels articulate a particular awareness of the political-international conflicts and difficulties in the 1990s-Egypt and Iraq, with the aim both to emphasize the issue of gender as a tool of oppression and power hierarchy worldwide and to figure out new notions of public participation and change.

Keywords: gender violence, public space, environment, change

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Authors: Samira Ghasempourkazemi

Abstract:

In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of mutations in the urban system, which have systemic impacts, have clearly appeared. COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also caused significant losses to other departments, including the economy, education, tourism, environment and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. Particularly, today’s large urban areas are not designed in order to be compatible during a pandemic. Hence, cities are more vulnerable to infectious disease threats according to the population density, built environment and socioeconomic aspects. Considering the direct relationship between population and rate of infection, higher rates are given to those individuals located in areas with high-density populations. Population density can be a factor that seems to have a strong impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Thus, the preliminary hypothesis can be related to a densely populated areas which become hotspots for the rapid spread of the pandemic due to high levels of interaction. In addition, some other indicators can be effective in this condition, such as age range, education and socio-economy. To figure out the measure of infectious disease risk in densely populated areas in Istanbul is an objective of this study. Besides, this study intends to figure out Vulnerability Index in the case of COVID-19. In order to achieve the proper result, the considered method can be Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by involving the mentioned variables. In the end, the study represents the COVID Vulnerability of densely populated areas in a metro city and the gaps that need to be identified and plugged for the pandemic-resilience city of tomorrow.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, urban system, densely populated area

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Authors: Eun-Taek Sin, Hyun-Ju Jang, Chang Geun Song, Yong-Sik Han

Abstract:

Due to the climate change, the coastal urban area repeatedly suffers from the loss of property and life by flooding. There are three main causes of inland submergence. First, when heavy rain with high intensity occurs, the water quantity in inland cannot be drained into rivers by increase in impervious surface of the land development and defect of the pump, storm sewer. Second, river inundation occurs then water surface level surpasses the top of levee. Finally, Coastal inundation occurs due to rising sea water. However, previous studies ignored the complex mechanism of flooding, and showed discrepancy and inadequacy due to linear summation of each analysis result. In this study, inland flooding and river inundation were analyzed together by HDM-2D model. Petrov-Galerkin stabilizing method and flux-blocking algorithm were applied to simulate the inland flooding. In addition, sink/source terms with exponentially growth rate attribute were added to the shallow water equations to include the inland flooding analysis module. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. To consider the coastal surge, another module was developed by adding seawater to the existing Inland Flooding-River Inundation binding module for comprehensive flooding analysis. Based on the combined modules, the Coastal Inundation – Inland & River Flow Interface was simulated by inputting the flow rate and depth data in artificial flume. Accordingly, it was able to analyze the flood patterns of coastal cities over time. This study is expected to help identify the complex causes of flooding in coastal areas where complex flooding occurs, and assist in analyzing damage to coastal cities. Acknowledgements—This research was supported by a grant ‘Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change’ [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

Keywords: flooding analysis, river inundation, inland flooding, 2D hydrodynamic model

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Ramoshweu Melvin Sethobya, Emmanuel Chirenje, Mihlali Hobo, Simon Sebothoma

Abstract:

The recent surge in residential infrastructure development around the metropolitan areas of South Africa has necessitated conditions for thorough geotechnical assessments to be conducted prior to site developments to ensure human and infrastructure safety. This paper appraises the success in the application of multi-method geophysical techniques for the delineation of sinkhole vulnerability in a residential landscape. Geophysical techniques ERT, MASW, VES, Magnetics and gravity surveys were conducted to assist in mapping sinkhole vulnerability, using an existing sinkhole as a constraint at Venterspost town, West of Johannesburg city. A combination of different geophysical techniques and results integration from those proved to be useful in the delineation of the lithologic succession around sinkhole locality, and determining the geotechnical characteristics of each layer for its contribution to the development of sinkholes, subsidence and cavities at the vicinity of the site. Study results have also assisted in the determination of the possible depth extension of the currently existing sinkhole and the location of sites where other similar karstic features and sinkholes could form. Results of the ERT, VES and MASW surveys have uncovered dolomitic bedrock at varying depths around the sites, which exhibits high resistivity values in the range 2500-8000ohm.m and corresponding high velocities in the range 1000-2400 m/s. The dolomite layer was found to be overlain by a weathered chert-poor dolomite layer, which has resistivities between the range 250-2400ohm.m, and velocities ranging from 500-600m/s, from which the large sinkhole has been found to collapse/ cave in. A compiled 2.5D high resolution Shear Wave Velocity (Vs) map of the study area was created using 2D profiles of MASW data, offering insights into the prevailing lithological setup conducive for formation various types of karstic features around the site. 3D magnetic models of the site highlighted the regions of possible subsurface interconnections between the currently existing large sinkhole and the other subsidence feature at the site. A number of depth slices were used to detail the conditions near the sinkhole as depth increases. Gravity surveys results mapped the possible formational pathways for development of new karstic features around the site. Combination and correlation of different geophysical techniques proved useful in delineation of the site geotechnical characteristics and mapping the possible depth extend of the currently existing sinkhole.

Keywords: resistivity, magnetics, sinkhole, gravity, karst, delineation, VES

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Authors: Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, Nomakhaya Monde

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Water crises have the fourth most significant societal impact after weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and extreme weather conditions, ahead of natural disasters. Intricacies between women and water are central to achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The majority of the 1.2 billion poor people worldwide, with two-thirds being women, and mostly located in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and South Asia, do not have access to safe and reliable sources of water. There exist gendered differences in water security based on the division of labour associating women with water. Globally, women and girls are responsible for water collection in 80% of the households which have no water on their premises. Women spend 16 million hours a day collecting water, while men and children spend 6 million and 4 million per day, respectively, which is time foregone in the pursuit of other livelihood activities. Due to their proximity and activities concerning water, women are vulnerable to water insecurity through exposures to water-borne diseases, fatigue from physically carrying water, and exposure to sexual and physical harassment, amongst others. Proximity to treated water and their wellbeing also has an effect on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to water insecurity. The great distances, difficult terrain and heavy lifting expose women to vulnerabilities of water insecurity. However, few studies have quantified the vulnerabilities and burdens on women, with a few taking a phenomenological qualitative approach. Vulnerability studies have also been scanty in the water security realm, with most studies taking linear forms of either quantifying exposures, sensitivities or adaptive capacities in climate change studies. The current study argues for the need for a water insecurity vulnerability assessment, especially for women into research agendas as well as policy interventions, monitoring, and evaluation. The study sought to identify and provide pathways through which female-headed households were water insecure in South Africa, the 30th driest country in the world. This was through linking the drinking water decision as well as the vulnerability frameworks. Secondary data collected during the 2016 General Household Survey (GHS) was utilised, with a sample of 5928 female-headed households. Principal Component Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling were used to analyse the data. The results show dynamic relationships between water characteristics and water treatment. There were also associations between water access and wealth status of the female-headed households. Association was also found between water access and water treatment as well as between wealth status and water treatment. The study concludes that there are dynamic relationships in water insecurity (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for female-headed households in South Africa. The study recommends that a multi-prong approach is required in tackling exposures, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities to water insecurity. This should include capacitating and empowering women for wealth generation, improve access to water treatment equipment as well as prioritising the improvement of infrastructure that brings piped and safe water to female-headed households.

Keywords: gender, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, vulnerability, water insecurity

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Authors: Sumaira Zafar, Arjumand Zaidi

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During past few years, several floods have adversely affected the areas along lower Indus River. Besides other climate related anomalies, rapidly increasing urbanization and blockage of natural drains due to siltation or encroachments are two other critical causes that may be responsible for these disasters. Due to flat topography of river Indus plains and blockage of natural waterways, drainage of storm water takes time adversely affecting the crop health and soil properties of the area. Government of Sindh is taking a keen interest in revival of natural drainage network in the province and has initiated this work under Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority. In this paper, geospatial techniques are used to analyze landuse/land-cover changes of Larkana district over the past three decades (1980-present) and their impact on natural drainage system. Satellite derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic sheets (recent and 1950) are used to delineate natural drainage pattern of the district. The urban landuse map developed in this study is further overlaid on drainage line layer to identify the critical areas where the natural floodwater flows are being inhibited by urbanization. Rainfall and flow data are utilized to identify areas of heavy flow, whereas, satellite data including Landsat 7 and Google Earth are used to map previous floods extent and landuse/cover of the study area. Alternatives to natural drainage systems are also suggested wherever possible. The output maps of natural drainage pattern can be used to develop a decision support system for urban planners, Sindh development authorities and flood mitigation and management agencies.

Keywords: geospatial techniques, satellite data, natural drainage, flood, urbanization

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Authors: Debasish Chowdhury, Sunil Mekale, Sarvanamurthy Sakthivel, Sukhvinder Kaur, Rambabu Khambampati, Ashok Agarwal

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Introduction: The migrant intervention in India was initiated during the National AIDS Control Program (NACP) Phase-2 (2002-2007). HIV Sentinel surveillance Studies (HSS) conducted in 2012-13 indicated higher HIV prevalence among migrants (0.99%) compared to general populations (0.35%). Migrants continue to bear a heightened risk of HIV infection which results from the condition and structure of the migration process. USAID PHFI-PIPPSE project in collaboration with the National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) developed a unique system called Migrant Service Delivery System (MSDS) to capture migrants profile with respect to their risk profile and to provide tailor made services to them. Description: MSDS is a web-based system, designed and implemented to increase service uptake among migrants through evidence based planning. 110 destination migrants Targeted Intervention (TI) from 11 states were selected for study with varied target populations in terms of occupations; to understand occupation related risk behaviors among the migrants. Occupation wise registration data of high risk vulnerable migrants were analyzed through MSDS for the period April 2014–June 2016. Analysis was made on specific indicators among these occupational groups to understand the risk behavior and their vulnerability to HIV and STIs. Findings: Out of total HIV positive migrant’s workers (N= 847) enrolled in MSDS HIV rate is found to be highest among Auto-Rickshaw (18.66%) followed by Daily wage laborers (14.46%), Loom workers (10.73%), Industrial workers (10.04%) and Construction worker 7.93%. With 45.14% positivity, industrial workers are found to be most vulnerable to Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) (N=10057) among all occupational categories followed by loom workers (16.28%), Skilled worker (Furniture, Jeweler)-7.14%, daily wage laborers (5.45%). Conclusion: MSDS is an effective tool to assess migrants’ risk and their vulnerability to HIV for designing evidence informed program. This system calls for a replication across all destination TIs by NACO for differential strategies for different occupation groups to ensure better yield through scientific planning of intervention among high risk and high vulnerable migrants.

Keywords: migrants, migrant service delivery system, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Zhaocheng Shang

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In order to study the topic of cities crossing rivers, a Four-Dimensional Analysis Method consisting of timeline, X-axis, Y-axis, and Z-axis is proposed. Policies, plans, and their implications are summarized and researched along with the timeline. The X-axis is the direction which is parallel to the river. The research area was chosen because of its important connection function. It is proposed that more surface water network should be built because of the ecological orientation of the research area. And the analysis of groundwater makes it for sure that the proposal is feasible. After the blue water network is settled, the green landscape network which is surrounded by it could be planned. The direction which is transversal to the river (Y-axis) should run through the transportation axis so that the urban texture could stretch in an ecological way. Therefore, it is suggested that the work of the planning bureau and river bureau should be coordinated. The Z-axis research is on the section view of the river, especially on the Yellow River’s special feature of being a perched river. Based on water control safety demands, river parks could be constructed on the embankment buffer zone, whereas many kinds of ornamental trees could be used to build the buffer zone. City Crossing River is a typical case where we make use of landscaping to build a symbiotic relationship between the urban landscape architecture and the environment. The local environment should be respected in the process of city expansion. The planning order of "Benefit- Flood Control Safety" should be replaced by "Flood Control Safety - Landscape Architecture- People - Benefit".

Keywords: blue-green landscape network, city crossing river, four-dimensional analysis method, planning order

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Seddighi, Avar Almukhtar

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The occurrence of natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, can cause significant damage to heritage sites and surrounding areas. In Iran, the city of Bam was devastated by an earthquake in 2003, which had a major impact on the rivers and watercourses around the city. This study aims to investigate the environmental design techniques and sustainable hazard mitigation strategies that can be employed to preserve heritage sites in the face of natural disasters, using the Bam experience as a case study. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods. The study begins with a comprehensive literature review of recent publications on environmental design techniques and sustainable hazard mitigation strategies in heritage conservation. This is followed by a field study of the rivers and watercourses around Bam, including the Adoori River (Talangoo) and other watercourses, to assess the current conditions and identify potential hazards. The data collected from the field study is analysed using statistical methods and GIS mapping techniques. The findings of this study reveal the importance of sustainable hazard mitigation strategies and environmental design techniques in preserving heritage sites during natural disasters. The study suggests that these techniques can be used to prevent the outbreak of another natural disaster in Bam and the surrounding areas. Specifically, the study recommends the establishment of a comprehensive early warning system, the creation of flood-resistant landscapes, and the use of eco-friendly building materials in the reconstruction of heritage sites. These findings contribute to the current knowledge of sustainable hazard mitigation and environmental design in heritage conservation.

Keywords: natural disasters, heritage conservation, sustainable hazard mitigation, environmental design, landscape architecture, flood management, disaster resilience

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

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The Wairau Plains are located in the north-east of the South Island of New Zealand in the region of Marlborough. The region is cut by many active crustal faults such as the Wairau, Awatere, and Clarence faults, which give rise to frequent seismic events. This paper presents the preliminary results of the overall project in which liquefaction-induced ground damage maps are developed in the Wairau Plains based on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment NZ guidance. A suite of maps has been developed in relation to the level of details that was available to inform the liquefaction hazard mapping. Maps at the coarsest level of detail make use of regional geologic information, applying semi-quantitative criteria based on geological age, design peak ground accelerations and depth to the water table. The next level of detail incorporates higher resolution surface geomorphologic characteristics to better delineate potentially liquefiable and non-liquefiable deposits across the region. The most detailed assessment utilised CPT sounding data to develop ground damage response curves for areas across the region and provide a finer level of categorisation of liquefaction vulnerability. Linking these with design level earthquakes defined through NZGS guidelines will enable detailed classification to be carried out at CPT investigation locations, from very low through to high liquefaction vulnerability. To update classifications to these detailed levels, CPT investigations in geomorphic regions are grouped together to provide an indication of the representative performance of the soils in these areas making use of the geomorphic mapping outlined above.

Keywords: hazard, liquefaction, mapping, seismicity

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Authors: Cabangile Ncengeni Ngwane, Gerald Mills

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Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating natural hazards such as droughts, heat waves and sea-level rise. The associated risks are the greatest in places where socio-ecological systems are exposed to these changes and the populations and infrastructure are vulnerable. Identifying the communities at risk and enhancing local resilience are key issues in responding to the current and project climate changes. This paper explores the types of risks associated with multiple overlapping hazards in Durban, South Africa where the social, cultural and economic dimensions that contribute to exposure and vulnerability are compounded by its history of apartheid. As a result, climate change risks are highly concentrated in marginalized communities that have the least adaptive capacity. In this research, a Geographic Information System is to explore the spatial correspondence among geographic layers representing hazards, exposure and vulnerability across Durban. This quantitative analysis will allow authors to identify communities at high risk and focus our study on the nature of the current human-environment relationships that result in risk inequalities. This work will employ qualitative methods to critically examine policies (including educational practices and financial support systems) and on-the-ground actions that are designed to improve the adaptive capacity of these communities and meet UN Sustainable Development Goals. This work will contribute to a growing body of literature on disaster risk management, especially as it relates to developing economies where socio-economic inequalities are correlated with ethnicity and race.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, disaster risk reduction, exposure, resilience, South Africa

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Authors: Tran Dinh Lan, Do Thi Thu Huong

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Among the 17 goals of the United Nations, 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, SDG 14.2 and SDG 14.4 under SDG 14 directly address the sustainable management, exploitation, and use of marine ecosystems. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to quantify the level of sustainable use of marine ecosystems, which have been paid attention for more than two decades in the direction of a quantitative approach by indicator and index development using methods of building and analyzing indicators and indices. With the employment of the above methods, over the past two decades, a number of marine ecosystems in Vietnam have been quantitatively evaluated for sustainable use for integrated coastal and marine management. Thirty indicators for sustainable use of marine ecosystems in the Northeast of Vietnam, together with indices, have been developed to assess mangrove, coral, and beach ecosystems. An assessment shows the following results. The mangrove ecosystem declined from sustainable to unsustainable uses in the period 1989-2007. The coral ecosystem in 2003 was at a sensitive point between sustainable and unsustainable uses. The beach ecosystem was evaluated with ten selected beaches in the period 2013-2018, showing that nine beaches are at a sustainable level, and one beach is at an unsustainable level. The Thua Thien-Hue coastal lagoon ecosystem assessed by 21 indicators of environmental vulnerability in 2014 showed less sustainability. The marine ecosystems around the offshore islands of Bach Long Vi, Con Co, and Tho Chu were tested to assess the level of sustainable use by the index of total economic value. The results show that these ecosystems are being used sustainably but are also at risk of falling to an unsustainable level (Tho Chu). The use of the environmental vulnerability index or economic value index to evaluate ecosystem sustainability only reflects parts of the function or value of the system but does not fully reflect the sustainability of the system.

Keywords: index, indicators, sustainability evaluation, Vietnam marine ecosystems

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Authors: Anila Hayat

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Pakistan is one of those developing countries that are least involved in emissions but has the most vulnerable environmental conditions. Pakistan is ranked 8th in most affected countries by climate change on the climate risk index 1992-2011. Pakistan is facing severe water shortages and flooding as a result of changes in rainfall patterns, specifically in the least developed areas such as Tharparkar. Nagarparkar, once an attractive tourist spot located in Tharparkar because of its tropical desert climate, is now facing severe drought conditions for the last few decades. This study investigates the present socio-economic situation of local communities, major impacts of droughts and their underlying causes and current mitigation strategies adopted by local communities. The study uses both secondary (quantitative in nature) and primary (qualitative in nature) methods to understand the impacts and explore causes on the socio-economic life of local communities of the study area. The relevant data has been collected through household surveys using structured questionnaires, focus groups and in-depth interviews of key personnel from local and international NGOs to explore the sensitivity of impacts and adaptation to droughts in the study area. This investigation is limited to four rural communities of union council Pilu of Nagarparkar district, including Bheel, BhojaBhoon, Mohd Rahan Ji Dhani and Yaqub Ji Dhani villages. The results indicate that drought has caused significant economic and social hardships for the local communities as more than 60% of the overall population is dependent on rainfall which has been disturbed by irregular rainfall patterns. The decline in Crop yields has forced the local community to migrate to nearby areas in search of livelihood opportunities. Communities have not undertaken any appropriate adaptive actions to counteract the adverse effect of drought; they are completely dependent on support from the government and external aid for survival. Respondents also reported that poverty is a major cause of their vulnerability to drought. An increase in population, limited livelihood opportunities, caste system, lack of interest from the government sector, unawareness shaped their vulnerability to drought and other social issues. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the local authorities shall create awareness about drought hazards and improve the resilience of communities against drought. It is further suggested to develop, introduce and implement water harvesting practices at the community level to promote drought-resistant crops.

Keywords: migration, vulnerability, awareness, Drought

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Authors: Davie Hope Moyo

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The environment is a combination of two things: resources and hazards. One of the hazards that is a result of environmental changes is the occurrence of flooding. Floods are one of the disasters that are highly feared by people because they have a huge impact on the human population and their environment. In recent years, flooding disasters in the Nsanje district are increasing in both frequency and magnitude. This study aims to understand the root causes of this phenomenon. To understand the causes of flooding, this study focused on the case of TA Ndamera in the Nsanje district, southern Malawi. People in the Nsanje district face disruption in their day-to-day life because of floods that affect their communities. When floods happen, people lose their property, land, livestock, and even lives. The study was carried out in order to have a better understanding of the root causes of floods. The findings of this study may help the government and other development agencies to put in place mitigation measures that will make Nsanje District resilient to the occurrence of future flood hazards. Data was collected from the area of TA Ndamera in order to assess the causes of flooding in the district. Interviews, transect walks, and researcher observation was done to appreciate the topography of the district and evaluate other factors that are making the people become vulnerable to the impacts of flooding in the district. It was found that flooding in the district is mainly caused by heavy rainfall in the upper shire, settlements along river banks, deforestation, and the topography of the district in general. The research study ends by providing recommendation strategies that need to be put in place to increase the resilience of the communities to future flood hazards. The research recommends the development of indigenous knowledge systems to alert people of incoming floods, construction of evacuation centers to ease pressure on schools, savings, and insurance schemes, construction of dykes, desilting rivers, and afforestation.

Keywords: disaster causes, mitigation, safety measures, Nsanje Malawi

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Authors: Ahmad Ammar, Umar Khan Khattak, Muhammad Majid

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Empirically based lumped hydrologic models have an extensive track record of use for various watershed managements and flood related studies. This study focuses on the impacts of LULC change for 10 year period on the discharge in watershed using lumped model HEC-HMS. The Indus above Tarbela region acts as a source of the main flood events in the middle and lower portions of Indus because of the amount of rainfall and topographic setting of the region. The discharge pattern of the region is influenced by the LULC associated with it. In this study the Landsat TM images were used to do LULC analysis of the watershed. Satellite daily precipitation TRMM data was used as input rainfall. The input variables for model building in HEC-HMS were then calculated based on the GIS data collected and pre-processed in HEC-GeoHMS. SCS-CN was used as transform model, SCS unit hydrograph method was used as loss model and Muskingum was used as routing model. For discharge simulation years 2000 and 2010 were taken. HEC-HMS was calibrated for the year 2000 and then validated for 2010.The performance of the model was assessed through calibration and validation process and resulted R2=0.92 during calibration and validation. Relative Bias for the years 2000 was -9% and for2010 was -14%. The result shows that in 10 years the impact of LULC change on discharge has been negligible in the study area overall. One reason is that, the proportion of built-up area in the watershed, which is the main causative factor of change in discharge, is less than 1% of the total area. However, locally, the impact of development was found significant in built up area of Mansehra city. The analysis was done on Mansehra city sub-watershed with an area of about 16 km2 and has more than 13% built up area in 2010. The results showed that with an increase of 40% built-up area in the city from 2000 to 2010 the discharge values increased about 33 percent, indicating the impact of LULC change on discharge value.

Keywords: LULC change, HEC-HMS, Indus Above Tarbela, SCS-CN

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Authors: Rommila Chandra, Harshika Choudhary

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The value of integrated, participatory, and community based sustainable development strategies is eminent, but in practice, it still remains fragmentary and often leads to short-lived results. Despite the global presence of climate change, its impacts are felt differently by different communities based on their vulnerability. The developing countries have the low adaptive capacity and high dependence on environmental variables, making them highly susceptible to outmigration and poverty. We need to understand how to enable these approaches, taking into account the various governmental and non-governmental stakeholders functioning at different levels, to deliver long-term socio-economic and environmental well-being of local communities. The research assessed the financial and natural vulnerability of Himalayan networks, focusing on their potential to adapt to various changes, through accessing their perceived reactions and local knowledge. The evaluation was conducted by testing indices for vulnerability, with a major focus on indicators for adaptive capacity. Data for the analysis were collected from the villages around Govind National Park and Wildlife Sanctuary, located in the Indian Himalayan Region. The villages were stratified on the basis of connectivity via road, thus giving two kinds of human settlements connected and isolated. The study focused on understanding the complex relationship between outmigration and the socio-cultural sentiments of local people to not abandon their land, assessing their adaptive capacity for livelihood opportunities, and exploring their contribution that integrated participatory methodologies can play in delivering sustainable development. The result showed that the villages having better road connectivity, access to market, and basic amenities like health and education have a better understanding about the climatic shift, natural hazards, and a higher adaptive capacity for income generation in comparison to the isolated settlements in the hills. The participatory approach towards environmental conservation and sustainable use of natural resources were seen more towards the far-flung villages. The study helped to reduce the gap between local understanding and government policies by highlighting the ongoing adaptive practices and suggesting precautionary strategies for the community studied based on their local conditions, which differ on the basis of connectivity and state of development. Adaptive capacity in this study has been taken as the externally driven potential of different parameters, leading to a decrease in outmigration and upliftment of the human environment that could lead to sustainable livelihood development in the rural areas of Himalayas.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, Indian Himalayan region, participatory, sustainable livelihood development

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Authors: Dina Maratovna Aikenova

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Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.

Keywords: children, Kazakhstan, policy, vulnerability

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Authors: M. Aouimeur

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The environmental risks of a dam and particularly the security in the Valley downstream of it,, is a very complex problem. Integrated management and risk-sharing become more and more indispensable. The definition of "vulnerability “concept can provide assistance to controlling the efficiency of protective measures and the characterization of each valley relatively to the floods's risk. Security can be enhanced through the integrated land management. The social sciences may be associated to the operational systems of civil protection, in particular warning networks. The passage of extreme floods in the site of the dam causes the rupture of this structure and important damages downstream the dam. The river bed could be damaged by erosion if it is not well protected. Also, we may encounter some scouring and flooding problems in the downstream area of the dam. Therefore, the protection of the dam is crucial. It must have an energy dissipator in a specific place. The basin of dissipation plays a very important role for the security of the dam and the protection of the environment against floods downstream the dam. It allows to dissipate the potential energy created by the dam with the passage of the extreme flood on the weir and regularize in a natural manner and with more security the discharge or elevation of the water plan on the crest of the weir, also it permits to reduce the speed of the flow downstream the dam, in order to obtain an identical speed to the river bed. The problem of the dimensioning of a classic dissipation basin is in the determination of the necessary parameters for the dimensioning of this structure. This communication presents a simple graphical method, that is fast and complete, and a methodology which determines the main features of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for sizing the classic dissipation basin. This graphical method takes into account the constraints imposed by the reality of the terrain or the practice such as the one related to the topography of the site, the preservation of the environment equilibrium and the technical and economic side.This methodology is to impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump as a hypothesis (free design) to determine all the others parameters of classical dissipation basin. We can impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump that is equal to a selected value or to a certain percentage of the upstream total head created by the dam. With the parameter DH+ =(DH/k),(k: critical depth),the elaborate graphical representation allows to find the other parameters, the multiplication of these parameters by k gives the main characteristics of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for the dimensioning of classic dissipation basin.This solution is often preferred for sizing the dissipation basins of small concrete dams. The results verification and their comparison to practical data, confirm the validity and reliability of the elaborate graphical method.

Keywords: dimensioning, energy dissipation basin, hydraulic jump, protection of the environment

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Authors: Sally Naji, Julie Gwilliam

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Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, climate change, NSA tools, resilience, sustainability

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Authors: Andreas Schomburg, Claire Le Bayon, Claire Guenat, Philip Brunner

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Numerous river restoration projects have been established in Switzerland in recent years after decades of human activity in floodplains. The success of restoration projects in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem functions largely depend on the development of the floodplain soil system. Plants and earthworms as ecosystem engineers are known to be able to build up a stable soil structure by incorporating soil organic matter into the soil matrix that creates water stable soil aggregates. Their engineering efficiency however largely depends on changing soil properties and frequent floods along an evolutive floodplain transect. This study, therefore, aims to quantify the effect of flood frequency and duration as well as of physico-chemical soil parameters on plants’ and earthworms’ engineering efficiency. It is furthermore predicted that these influences may have a different impact on one of the engineers that leads to a varying contribution to aggregate formation within the floodplain transect. Ecosystem engineers were sampled and described in three different floodplain habitats differentiated according to the evolutionary stages of the vegetation ranging from pioneer to forest vegetation in a floodplain restored 15 years ago. In addition, the same analyses were performed in an embanked adjacent pasture as a reference for the pre-restored state. Soil aggregates were collected and analyzed for their organic matter quantity and quality using Rock Eval pyrolysis. Water level and discharge measurements dating back until 2008 were used to quantify the return period of major floods. Our results show an increasing amount of water stable aggregates in soil with increasing distance to the river and show largest values in the reference site. A decreasing flood frequency and the proportion of silt and clay in the soil texture explain these findings according to F values from one way ANOVA of a fitted mixed effect model. Significantly larger amounts of labile organic matter signatures were found in soil aggregates in the forest habitat and in the reference site that indicates a larger contribution of plants to soil aggregation in these habitats compared to the pioneer vegetation zone. Earthworms’ contribution to soil aggregation does not show significant differences in the floodplain transect, but their effect could be identified even in the pioneer vegetation with its large proportion of coarse sand in the soil texture and frequent inundations. These findings indicate that ecosystem engineers seem to be able to create soil aggregates even under unfavorable soil conditions and under frequent floods. A restoration success can therefore be expected even in ecosystems with harsh soil properties and frequent external disturbances.

Keywords: ecosystem engineers, flood frequency, floodplains, river restoration, rock eval pyrolysis, soil organic matter incorporation, soil structuration

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Nassereddine Attari

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Each operation to strengthen or repair requires special consideration and requires the use of methods, tools and techniques appropriate to the situation and specific problems of each of the constructs. The aim of this paper is to study the pathology of building of reinforced concrete towards the earthquake and the vulnerability assessment using a non-linear Pushover analysis and to develop curves for a medium capacity building in order to estimate the damaged condition of the building.

Keywords: pushover analysis, earthquake, damage, strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Yiqi Zhu, Jean Francois Trani, Rameez Ulhassan

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Extreme weather phenomena increased by 46% between 2007 and 2017 and have become more intense with the rise in global average temperatures. This increased intensity of climate variations often induces humanitarian crises and particularly affects vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Expectant and lactating mothers are among the most vulnerable groups. Pakistan ranks 10th among the most affected countries by climate disasters. In 2022, monsoon floods submerged a third of the country, causing the loss of 1,500 lives. Approximately 650,000 expectant and lactating mothers faced systematic stress from climatic disasters. Our study used participatory methods to investigate the systematic impact of climatic disasters on maternal health. In March 2023, we conducted six Group Model Building (GMB) workshops with healthcare workers, fathers, and mothers separately in two of the most affected areas in Pakistan. This study was approved by the Islamic Relief Research Review Board. GMB workshops consist of three sessions. In the first session, participants discussed the factors that impact maternal health. After identifying the factors, they discussed the connections among them and explored the system structures that collectively impact maternal health. Based on the discussion, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was created. Finally, participants discussed action ideas that could improve the system to enhance maternal health. Based on our discussions and the causal loop diagram, we identified interconnected factors at the family, community, and policy levels. Mothers and children are directly impacted by three interrelated factors: food insecurity, unstable housing, and lack of income. These factors create a reinforcing cycle that negatively affects both mothers and newborns. After the flood, many mothers were unable to produce sufficient breastmilk due to their health status. Without breastmilk and sufficient food for complementary feeding, babies tend to get sick in damp and unhygienic environments resulting from temporary or unstable housing. When parents take care of sick children, they miss out on income-generating opportunities. At the community level, the lack of access to clean water and sanitation (WASH) and maternal healthcare further worsens the situation. Structural failures such as a lack of safety nets and programs associated with flood preparedness make families increasingly vulnerable with each disaster. Several families reported that they had not fully recovered from a flood that occurred ten years ago, and this latest disaster destroyed their lives again. Although over twenty non-profit organizations are working in these villages, few of them provide sustainable support. Therefore, participants called for systemic changes in response to the increasing frequency of climate disasters. The study reveals the systematic vulnerabilities of mothers and children after climatic disasters. The most vulnerable populations are often affected the most by climate change. Collaborative efforts are required to improve water and forest management, strengthen public infrastructure, increase access to WASH, and gradually build climate-resilient communities. Governments, non-governmental organizations, and the community should work together to develop and implement effective strategies to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to climate change and its impacts.

Keywords: climatic disasters, maternal health, Pakistan, systematic impact, flood, disaster relief.

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Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 56