Search results for: calculating method of cracking probability

Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Mai Abdul Latif, Yuntian Feng

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Applied Element Method (AEM) is a method that was developed to aid in the analysis of the collapse of structures. Current available methods cannot deal with structural collapse accurately; however, AEM can simulate the behavior of a structure from an initial state of no loading until collapse of the structure. The elements in AEM are connected with sets of normal and shear springs along the edges of the elements, that represent the stresses and strains of the element in that region. The elements are rigid, and the material properties are introduced through the spring stiffness. Nonlinear dynamic analysis has been widely modelled using the finite element method for analysis of progressive collapse of structures; however, difficulties in the analysis were found at the presence of excessively deformed elements with cracking or crushing, as well as having a high computational cost, and difficulties on choosing the appropriate material models for analysis. The Applied Element method is developed and coded to significantly improve the accuracy and also reduce the computational costs of the method. The scheme works for both linear elastic, and nonlinear cases, including elasto-plastic materials. This paper will focus on elastic and elasto-plastic material behaviour, where the number of springs required for an accurate analysis is tested. A steel cantilever beam is used as the structural element for the analysis. The first modification of the method is based on the Gaussian Quadrature to distribute the springs. Usually, the springs are equally distributed along the face of the element, but it was found that using Gaussian springs, only up to 2 springs were required for perfectly elastic cases, while with equal springs at least 5 springs were required. The method runs on a Newton-Raphson iteration scheme, and quadratic convergence was obtained. The second modification is based on adapting the number of springs required depending on the elasticity of the material. After the first Newton Raphson iteration, Von Mises stress conditions were used to calculate the stresses in the springs, and the springs are classified as elastic or plastic. Then transition springs, springs located exactly between the elastic and plastic region, are interpolated between regions to strictly identify the elastic and plastic regions in the cross section. Since a rectangular cross-section was analyzed, there were two plastic regions (top and bottom), and one elastic region (middle). The results of the present study show that elasto-plastic cases require only 2 springs for the elastic region, and 2 springs for the plastic region. This showed to improve the computational cost, reducing the minimum number of springs in elasto-plastic cases to only 6 springs. All the work is done using MATLAB and the results will be compared to models of structural elements using the finite element method in ANSYS.

Keywords: applied element method, elasto-plastic, Gaussian springs, nonlinear

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Saron Adisu Gezahegn

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Commercial cosmetic has been affecting human health due to their contents and dosage composition. Chemical base cosmetics exposes users to unnecessary health problems and financial cost. Some of the cosmetics' interaction with the environment has negative impacts on health such as burning, cracking, coloring, and so on. The users are looking for a temporary service without evaluating the side effects of cosmetics that contain chemical compositions that result in irritation, burning, allergies, cracking, and the nature of the face. Every cosmetic contains a heavy metal such as lead, zinc, cadmium, silicon, and other heavy cosmetics materials. The users may expose at the end of the day to untreatable diseases like cancer. The objective of the research is to study the effects of indigenous biological face treatment without any additives like chemicals. In ancient times this thought was highly tremendous in the world but things were changing bit by bit and reached chemical base cosmetics to maintain the beauty of hair, skin, and faces. The side effects of the treatment on the face were minimum and the side effects with the interaction of the environment were almost nil. But this thought is changed and replaces the indigenous substances with chemical substances by adding additives like heavy chemical lead and cadmium in the sense of preservation, pigments, dye, and shining. Various studies indicated that cosmetics have dangerous side effects that expose users to health problems and expensive financial loss. This study focuses on a local indigenous plant called Kulkual. Kulkual is available everywhere in a study area and sustainable products can harvest to use as indigenous face treatment materials.25 men and 25 women were selected as a sample population randomly to conduct the study effectively.The plant is harvested from the guard in the productive season. The plant was exposed to the sun dry for a week. Then the peel was removed from the plant fruit and the peels were taken to a bath filled with water to soak for three days. Then the flesh of the peel was avoided from the fruit and ready to use as a face treatment. The fleshy peel was smeared on each sample for almost a week and continued for a week. The result indicated that the effects of the treatment were a positive response with minimum cost and minimum side effects due to the environment. The beauty shines, smoothness, and color are better than chemical base cosmetics. Finally, the study is recommended that all users prefer a biological method of treatment with minimum cost and minimums side effects on health with the interaction of the environment.

Keywords: cosmetic, indigneous, heavymetals, toxic

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Edokpa Idemudia Waziri, Salisu S. Umar

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The Hotellng’s T^2 is a well-known statistic for detecting a shift in the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. Control charts based on T have been widely used in statistical process control for monitoring a multivariate process. Although it is a powerful tool, the T statistic is deficient when the shift to be detected in the mean vector of a multivariate process is small and consistent. The Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart is one of the control statistics used to overcome the drawback of the Hotellng’s T statistic. In this paper, the probability distribution of the Average Run Length (ARL) of the MEWMA control chart when the quality characteristics exhibit substantial cross correlation and when the process is in-control and out-of-control was derived using the Markov Chain algorithm. The derivation of the probability functions and the moments of the run length distribution were also obtained and they were consistent with some existing results for the in-control and out-of-control situation. By simulation process, the procedure identified a class of ARL for the MEWMA control when the process is in-control and out-of-control. From our study, it was observed that the MEWMA scheme is quite adequate for detecting a small shift and a good way to improve the quality of goods and services in a multivariate situation. It was also observed that as the in-control average run length ARL0¬ or the number of variables (p) increases, the optimum value of the ARL0pt increases asymptotically and as the magnitude of the shift σ increases, the optimal ARLopt decreases. Finally, we use the example from the literature to illustrate our method and demonstrate its efficiency.

Keywords: average run length, markov chain, multivariate exponentially weighted moving average, optimal smoothing parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Keerti Kembhavi, M. R. Archana, V. Anjaneyappa

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Most asphalt pavement condition evaluation use rating frameworks in which asphalt pavement distress is estimated by type, extent, and severity. Rating is carried out by the pavement condition rating (PCR), which is tedious and expensive. This paper presents the development of a low-cost technique for image pavement distress analysis that permits the identification of pothole and cracks. The paper explores the application of image processing tools for the detection of potholes and cracks. Longitudinal cracking and pothole are detected using Fuzzy-C- Means (FCM) and proceeded with the Spectral Theory algorithm. The framework comprises three phases, including image acquisition, processing, and extraction of features. A digital camera (Gopro) with the holder is used to capture pavement distress images on a moving vehicle. FCM classifier and Spectral Theory algorithms are used to compute features and classify the longitudinal cracking and pothole. The Matlab2016Ra Image preparing tool kit utilizes performance analysis to identify the viability of pavement distress on selected urban stretches of Bengaluru city, India. The outcomes of image evaluation with the utilization semi-computerized image handling framework represented the features of longitudinal crack and pothole with an accuracy of about 80%. Further, the detected images are validated with the actual dimensions, and it is seen that dimension variability is about 0.46. The linear regression model y=1.171x-0.155 is obtained using the existing and experimental / image processing area. The R2 correlation square obtained from the best fit line is 0.807, which is considered in the linear regression model to be ‘large positive linear association’.

Keywords: crack detection, pothole detection, spectral clustering, fuzzy-c-means

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Raghav Lakhotia, Chandra Kanth Nagesh, Krishna Madgula

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A lot has been said and discussed regarding the rationale and significance of the Bechdel Score. It became a digital sensation in 2013, when Swedish cinemas began to showcase the Bechdel test score of a film alongside its rating. The test has drawn criticism from experts and the film fraternity regarding its use to rate the female presence in a movie. The pundits believe that the score is too simplified and the underlying criteria of a film to pass the test must include 1) at least two women, 2) who have at least one dialogue, 3) about something other than a man, is egregious. In this research, we have considered a few more parameters which highlight how we represent females in film, like the number of female dialogues in a movie, dialogue genre, and part of speech tags in the dialogue. The parameters were missing in the existing criteria to calculate the Bechdel score. The research aims to analyze 342 movies scripts to test a hypothesis if these extra parameters, above with the current Bechdel criteria, are significant in calculating the female representation score. The result of the Principal Component Analysis method concludes that the female dialogue content is a key component and should be considered while measuring the representation of women in a work of fiction.

Keywords: Bechdel test, dialogue genre, parts of speech tags, principal component analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Mojtaba Sadeghi, Farshid Baniassadi, Hamed Kashani

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One of the challenging issues faced by seismic retrofitting consultants and employers is quick decision-making on the demolition or retrofitting of a structure at the current time or in the future. For this reason, the existing models proposed by researchers have only covered one of the aspects of cost, execution method, and structural vulnerability. Given the effect of each factor on the final decision, it is crucial to devise a new comprehensive model capable of simultaneously covering all the factors. This study attempted to provide an integrated framework that can be utilized to select the most appropriate earthquake risk mitigation solution for buildings. This framework can overcome the limitations of current models by taking into account several factors such as cost, execution method, risk-taking and structural failure. In the newly proposed model, the database and essential information about retrofitting projects are developed based on the historical data on a retrofit project. In the next phase, an analysis is conducted in order to assess the vulnerability of the building under study. Then, artificial neural networks technique is employed to calculate the cost of retrofitting. While calculating the current price of the structure, an economic analysis is conducted to compare demolition versus retrofitting costs. At the next stage, the optimal method is identified. Finally, the implementation of the framework was demonstrated by collecting data concerning 155 previous projects.

Keywords: decision making, demolition, construction management, seismic retrofit

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: B. Ramakrishna, S. Sivamurthy Reddy

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The various types of aggregates such as granite, dolerite, Quartzite, dolomitic limestone, limestone and river gravel were used to produce the concrete with 28-day target compressive strength of 35, 60, and 80 Mpa. The compressive strength of concrete, as well as aggregates, was measured to study the effect of rupture probability of aggregate on the fracture surface of the concrete. Also, the petrographic studies were carried out to study the texture, type of minerals present and their relative proportions in various types of aggregates. The concrete of various grades produced with the same aggregate has shown a rise in RPCA with strength. However, the above relationship has ceased to exist in the concretes of the same grade, made of different types of aggregates. The carbonate aggregates namely Limestone and Dolomitic limestone have produced concrete with higher RPCA irrespective of the strength of concrete. The mode of origin, texture and mineralogical composition of aggregates have a significant impact on their pulse velocity and thereby the pulse velocity of concrete.

Keywords: RPCA, DL, G, LS, RG

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Saeed Hosseini, Ali Reza Tahavvor

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Sound processing is one the subjects that newly attracts a lot of researchers. It is efficient and usually less expensive than other methods. In this paper the flow generated sound is used to estimate the flow speed of free flows. Many sound samples are gathered. After analyzing the data, a parameter named wave power is chosen. For all samples, the wave power is calculated and averaged for each flow speed. A curve is fitted to the averaged data and a correlation between the wave power and flow speed is founded. Test data are used to validate the method and errors for all test data were under 10 percent. The speed of the flow can be estimated by calculating the wave power of the flow generated sound and using the proposed correlation.

Keywords: the flow generated sound, free stream, sound processing, speed, wave power

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: P. G. Siddheshwar, B. N. Veena

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Rayleigh-B´enard convection of a nanoliquid in shallow, square and tall enclosures is studied using the Khanafer-Vafai-Lightstone single-phase model. The thermophysical properties of water, copper, copper-oxide, alumina, silver and titania at 3000 K under stagnant conditions that are collected from literature are used in calculating thermophysical properties of water-based nanoliquids. Phenomenological laws and mixture theory are used for calculating thermophysical properties. Free-free, rigid-rigid and rigid-free boundary conditions are considered in the study. Intractable Lorenz model for each boundary combination is derived and then reduced to the tractable Ginzburg-Landau model. The amplitude thus obtained is used to quantify the heat transport in terms of Nusselt number. Addition of nanoparticles is shown not to alter the influence of the nature of boundaries on the onset of convection as well as on heat transport. Amongst the three enclosures considered, it is found that tall and shallow enclosures transport maximum and minimum energy respectively. Enhancement of heat transport due to nanoparticles in the three enclosures is found to be in the range 3% - 11%. Comparison of results in the case of rigid-rigid boundaries is made with those of an earlier work and good agreement is found. The study has limitations in the sense that thermophysical properties are calculated by using various quantities modelled for static condition.

Keywords: enclosures, free-free, rigid-rigid, rigid-free boundaries, Ginzburg-Landau model, Lorenz model

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Robert Vanderburg, Nicholas Gibson

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Objectives: There has been an increased focus in education students’ mathematics skills in the last two years. Universities have, specifically, had problems teaching students struggling with mathematics. This paper focuses on the ability of a digital platform to significantly improve mathematics skills for struggling students. Methods: 32 students who demonstrated low scores on a mathematics test were selected to take part in a one-month tutorial program using a digital mathematics portal. Students were provided feedback for questions posted on the portal and a fortnightly tutorial session. Results: A pre-test post-test design was analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analysis suggested that students improved skills in algebra, geometry, statistics, probability, ratios, fractions, and probability. Conclusion: Distance university students can improve their mathematics skills using a digital platform.

Keywords: digital education, distance education, higher education, mathematics education

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Yun Chol Kang, Myong Nam Kong, Nam Chol Yu, Jin Sim Kim, Un Yong Paek, Song Ho Kim

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This study focuses on the calculating approach of the thermal conductivity of 8 mol% yttria-stabilized zirconia (8YSZ) in different relative humidity corresponding to low water contents. When water content in 8YSZ is low, water droplets can accumulate in the neck regions. We assume that spherical water droplets are randomly located in the neck regions formed by grains and surrounded by the pores. Based on this, a new hypothetical pore constituted by air and water is proposed using the microstructural modeling. We consider 8YSZ is a two-phase material constituted by the solid region and the hypothetical pore region where the water droplets are penetrated in the pores, randomly. The results showed that the thermal conductivity of the hypothetical pore is calculated using the parallel resistance for low water contents, and the effective thermal conductivity of 8YSZ material constituted by solid and hypothetical pore in different relative humidities using EMPT. When the numbers of water layers on the surface of 8YSZ are less than 1.5, the proposed approach gives a good interpretation of the experimental results. When the theoretical value of the number of water layers on 8YSZ surface is 1, the water content is not enough to cover the internal solid surface completely. The proposed approach gives a better interpretation of the experimental results in different relative humidities that numbers of water layers on the surface of 8YSZ are less than 1.5.

Keywords: 8YSZ, microstructure, thermal conductivity, relative humidity

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Seyedamir Makinejadsanij

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One of the most important factors in the production of quality steel is to know the exact weight of steel in the steelmaking area. In this study, a calculation method is presented to estimate the exact weight of the melt as well as the objects transported by the overhead crane. Iran Alloy Steel Company's steelmaking area has three 90-ton cranes, which are responsible for transferring the ladles and ladle caps between 34 areas in the melt shop. Each crane is equipped with a Disomat Tersus weighing system that calculates and displays real-time weight. The moving object has a variable weight due to swinging, and the weighing system has an error of about +-5%. This means that when the object is moving by a crane, which weighs about 80 tons, the device (Disomat Tersus system) calculates about 4 tons more or 4 tons less, and this is the biggest problem in calculating a real weight. The k-means algorithm is an unsupervised clustering method that was used here. The best result was obtained by considering 3 centers. Compared to the normal average(one) or two, four, five, and six centers, the best answer is with 3 centers, which is logically due to the elimination of noise above and below the real weight. Every day, the standard weight is moved with working cranes to test and calibrate cranes. The results are shown that the accuracy is about 40 kilos per 60 tons (standard weight). As a result, with this method, the accuracy of moving weight is calculated as 99.95%. K-means is used to calculate the exact mean of objects. The stopping criterion of the algorithm is also the number of 1000 repetitions or not moving the points between the clusters. As a result of the implementation of this system, the crane operator does not stop while moving objects and continues his activity regardless of weight calculations. Also, production speed increased, and human error decreased.

Keywords: k-means, overhead crane, melt weight, weight estimation, swing problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Mehul Srivastava, Sharma Tushar Ravikant, Mridul Krishn Mishra

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In structural design, the evaluation of safety and probability failure of structure is of significant importance, mainly when the variables are random. On real structures, structural reliability can be evaluated obtaining an implicit limit state function. The structural reliability limit state function is obtained depending upon the statistically independent variables. In the analysis of reliability, we considered the statistically independent random variables to be the load intensity applied and the depth or height of the beam member considered. There are many approaches for structural reliability problems. In this paper Extreme Learning Machine technique and First Order Second Moment Method is used to determine the reliability indices for the same set of variables. The reliability index obtained using ELM is compared with the reliability index obtained using FOSM. Higher the reliability index, more feasible is the method to determine the reliability.

Keywords: reliability, reliability index, statistically independent, extreme learning machine

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Authors: Dalia Suša Vugec

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Business process management (BPM) is widely used approach focused on designing, mapping, changing, managing and analyzing business processes of an organization, which eventually leads to better performance and derives many other benefits. Since every organization strives to improve its performance in order to be sustainable and to remain competitive on the market in long-term period, numerous organizations are nowadays adopting and implementing BPM. However, not all organizations are equally successful in that. One of the ways of measuring BPM success is by measuring its maturity by calculating Process Performance Index (PPI) using ten BPM success factors. Still, although BPM is a holistic concept, organizational culture is not taken into consideration in calculating PPI. Hence, aim of this paper is twofold; first, it aims to explore and analyze the current state of BPM success factors within the big organizations from Slovenia, Croatia, and Austria and second, it aims to analyze the structure of organizational culture within the observed companies, focusing on the link with BPM success factors as well. The presented study is based on the results of the questionnaire conducted as the part of the PROSPER project (IP-2014-09-3729) and financed by Croatian Science Foundation. The results of the questionnaire reveal differences in the achieved levels of BPM success factors and therefore BPM maturity in total between the three observed countries. Moreover, the structure of organizational culture across three countries also differs. This paper discusses the revealed differences between countries as well as the link between organizational culture and BPM success factors.

Keywords: business process management, BPM maturity, BPM success factors, organizational culture, process performance index

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Nurlan Akhmetov, Abilmansur Yeshmuratov, Aliya Kurbanova, Gulnar Sugurbekova, Murat Baisariyev

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Extraction of the vanadium and nickel compounds is complex due to the high stability of porphyrin, nickel is catalytic poison which deactivates catalysis during the catalytic cracking of the oil, while vanadyl is abrasive and valuable metal. Thus, high concentration of the Ni and V in the crude oil makes their removal relevant. Two methods of the demetallization of crude oil were tested, therefore, the present research is conducted for comparative analysis of the deasphalting with organic solvents (cyclohexane, carbon tetrachloride, chloroform) and electrochemical method. Percentage of Ni extraction reached maximum of approximately 55% by using the electrochemical method in electrolysis cell, which was developed for this research and consists of three sections: oil and protonating agent (EtOH) solution between two conducting membranes which divides it from two capsules of 10% sulfuric acid and two graphite electrodes which cover all three parts in electrical circuit. Ions of metals pass through membranes and remain in acid solutions. The best result was obtained in 60 minutes with ethanol to oil ratio 25% to 75% respectively, current fits in to the range from 0.3A to 0.4A, voltage changed from 12.8V to 17.3V. Maximum efficiency of deasphalting, with cyclohexane as the solvent, in Soxhlet extractor was 66.4% for Ni and 51.2% for V. Thus, applying the voltammetry, ICP MS (Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry) and AAS (atomic absorption spectroscopy), these mentioned types of metal extraction methods were compared in this paper.

Keywords: electrochemistry, deasphalting of crude oil, demetallization of crude oil, petrolium engineering

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Authors: Auezhan Amanov, Inho Cho, Young-Sik Pyun

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Control element drive mechanism (CEDM) nozzle is manufactured as welded on the reactor vessel and currently uses Alloy 690 material. The top of the reactor is equipped with about 100 CEDM nozzles with an internal diameter of about 70 mm. Relatively large Inlet/Outlet nozzles are equipped with two outlet nozzles and four inlet nozzles on the reactor wall. The inner diameter of the nozzle is vulnerable to stress corrosion cracking (SCC), and in order to solve this problem, an ultrasonic nanocrystal surface modification (UNSM) treatment is performed on the inner diameter of the nozzle and the weld surface. The ultimate goal is to improve the service life of parts by applying compressive residual stress and suppressing primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC). The main purpose is to design and fabricate a UNSM treatment device for the internal diameter processing of CEDM nozzles and inlet/outlet nozzles. In order to develop the system, the basic technology such as the development of UNSM tooling is developed and the mechanical properties and fatigue performance of before and after UNSM treatment of reactor nozzle material made of Ni-based alloys using the specimen are compared and evaluated. The inner diameter of the nozzle was treated by a newly developed UNSM treatment under the optimized treatment parameters. It was found that the mechanical properties and fatigue performance of nozzle were improved in comparison with the untreated nozzle, which may be attributed to the increase in hardness, induced compressive residual stress.

Keywords: control element drive mechanism nozzle, fatigue, Ni-based alloy, ultrasonic nanocrystal surface modification, UNSM

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Authors: Hatem Mrad, Mohamed Bouazara, Fouad Erchiqui

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Fatigue, is considered as one of the main cause of mechanical properties degradation of mechanical parts. Probability and reliability methods are appropriate for fatigue analysis using uncertainties that exist in fatigue material or process parameters. Current work deals with the study of the effect of the number and counting Rainflow cycle on fatigue lifetime (cumulative damage) of an upper arm of the vehicle suspension system. The major part of the fatigue damage induced in suspension arm is caused by two main classes of parameters. The first is related to the materials properties and the second is the road excitation or the applied force of the passenger’s number. Therefore, Young's modulus and road excitation are selected as input parameters to conduct repetitive simulations by Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate these parameters. Response surface method is established according to fatigue lifetime of each combination of input parameters according to strain-life method. A PYTHON script was developed to automatize finite element simulations of the upper arm according to a design of experiments.

Keywords: fatigue, monte carlo, rainflow cycle, response surface, suspension system

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Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

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Authors: Shivi Agarwal, Trilok Mathur

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This paper proposes the method to measure the total factor productivity (TFP) change by credibility theory for fuzzy input and output variables. Total factor productivity change has been widely studied with crisp input and output variables, however, in some cases, input and output data of decision-making units (DMUs) can be measured with uncertainty. These data can be represented as linguistic variable characterized by fuzzy numbers. Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is widely used to estimate the TFP change by calculating the total factor productivity of a DMU for different time periods using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The fuzzy DEA (FDEA) model is solved using the credibility theory. The results of FDEA is used to measure the TFP change for fuzzy input and output variables. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method to measure the TFP change input and output variables. The suggested methodology can be utilized for performance evaluation of DMUs and help to assess the level of integration. The methodology can also apply to rank the DMUs and can find out the DMUs that are lagging behind and make recommendations as to how they can improve their performance to bring them at par with other DMUs.

Keywords: chance-constrained programming, credibility theory, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy data, Malmquist productivity index

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Michael Smalenberger

Abstract:

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate and even exceed some benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. A common facet of many ITS is their use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to estimate parameters necessary for the implementation of the artificial intelligence component, and for the probability of mastery of a knowledge component relevant to the ITS. While various techniques exist to estimate these parameters and probability of mastery, none directly and reliably ask the user to self-assess these. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course for which detailed transaction-level observations were recorded, and users were also routinely asked direct questions that would lead to such a self-assessment. Comparisons were made between these self-assessed values and those obtained using commonly used estimation techniques. Our findings show that such self-assessments are particularly relevant at the early stages of ITS usage while transaction level data are scant. Once a user’s transaction level data become available after sufficient ITS usage, these can replace the self-assessments in order to eliminate the identifiability problem in BKT. We discuss how these findings are relevant to the number of exercises necessary to lead to mastery of a knowledge component, the associated implications on learning curves, and its relevance to instruction time.

Keywords: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Intelligent Tutoring System, in vivo study, parameter estimation

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

Abstract:

This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Ahmed Sameer El Khatib

Abstract:

The aim of the present paper is to examine the revenue efficiency of the Indonesian Islamic banking sector. The study also seeks to investigate the potential internal (bank specific) and external (macroeconomic) determinants that influence the revenue efficiency of Indonesian domestic Islamic banks. We employ the whole gamut of domestic and foreign Islamic banks operating in the Indonesian Islamic banking sector during the period of 2009 to 2018. The level of revenue efficiency is computed by using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. Furthermore, we employ a panel regression analysis framework based on the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to examine the potential determinants of revenue efficiency. The results indicate that the level of revenue efficiency of Indonesian domestic Islamic banks is lower compared to their foreign Islamic bank counterparts. We find that bank market power, liquidity, and management quality significantly influence the improvement in revenue efficiency of the Indonesian domestic Islamic banks during the period under study. By calculating these efficiency concepts, we can observe the efficiency levels of the domestic and foreign Islamic banks. In addition, by comparing both cost and profit efficiency, we can identify the influence of the revenue efficiency on the banks’ profitability.

Keywords: Islamic Finance, Islamic Banks, Revenue Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis

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Authors: Rabih Al-Kaysi

Abstract:

When quasi-stable solutions of 9-methylanthracene (pi-electron donor, 0.0005 M) and 1,2,4,5-Tetracyanobenzene (pi-electron acceptor, 0.0005 M) in aqueous sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS, 0.025 M) were gently mixed, uniform-shaped rectangular charge-transfer nanocrystals precipitated out. These red colored charge-transfer (CT) crystals were composed of a 1:1-mole ratio of acceptor/ donor and are highly insoluble in water/SDS solution. The rectangular crystals morphology is semi hollow with symmetrical twin pockets reminiscent of nanocapsules. For a typical crop of nanocapsules, the dimensions are 21 x 6 x 0.5 microns with an approximate hollow volume of 1.5 x 105 nm3. By varying the concentration of aqueous SDS, mixing duration and incubation temperature, we can control the size and volume of the nanocapsules. The initial number of CT seed nanoparticles, formed by mixing the D and A solutions, determined the number and dimensions of the obtained nanocapsules formed after several hours of incubation under still conditions. Prolonged mixing of the donor and acceptor solutions resulted in plenty of initial seeds hence smaller nanocapsules. Short mixing times yields less seed formation and larger micron-sized capsules. The addition of Doxorubicin in situ with the quasi-stable solutions while mixing leads to the formation of CT nanocapsules with Doxorubicin sealed inside. The Doxorubicin can be liberated from the nanocapsules by cracking them using ultrasonication. This method can be extended to other binary CT complex crystals as well.

Keywords: charge-transfer, nanocapsules, nanocrystals, doxorubicin

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Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

Abstract:

This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

Abstract:

The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

Procedia PDF Downloads 170