Search results for: autoregressive moving average model

Authors: Sana Dridi, Jalel Aouissi, Rafla Attia, Taoufik Hermassi, Thouraya Sahli

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Soil erosion is an increasing issue in Mediterranean countries. In Tunisia, the capacity of dam reservoirs continues to decrease as a consequence of soil erosion. This study aims to predict sediment yield to enrich soil management practices using Soil and Water Assessment Tools model (SWAT) in the Siliana watershed (1041.6 km²), located in the northwest of Tunisia. A database was constructed using remote sensing and Geographical Information System. Climatic and flow data were collected from water resources directorates in Tunisia. The SWAT model was built to simulate hydrological processes and sediment transport. A sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation were performed using SWAT-CUP software. The model calibration of stream flow simulations shows a good performance with NSE and R² values of 0.77 and 0.79, respectively. The model validation shows a very good performance with values of NSE and R² for 0.8 and 0.88, respectively. After calibration and validation of stream flow simulation, the model was used to simulate the soil erosion and sediment load transport. The spatial distributions of soil loss rate for determining the critical sediment source areas show that 63 % of the study area has a low soil loss rate less than 7 t ha⁻¹y⁻¹. The annual average soil loss rate simulated with the SWAT model in the Siliana watershed is 4.62 t ha⁻¹y⁻¹.

Keywords: water erosion, SWAT model, streamflow, SWATCUP, sediment yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Liang Liu, Xiaopeng Luo

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In this paper, we propose an accelerated stochastic gradient method with momentum. The momentum term is the weighted average of generated gradients, and the weights decay inverse proportionally with the iteration times. Stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM) uses weights that decay exponentially with the iteration times to generate the momentum term. Using exponential decay weights, variants of SGDM with inexplicable and complicated formats have been proposed to achieve better performance. However, the momentum update rules of our method are as simple as that of SGDM. We provide theoretical convergence analyses, which show both the exponential decay weights and our inverse proportional decay weights can limit the variance of the parameter moving directly to a region. Experimental results show that our method works well with many practical problems and outperforms SGDM.

Keywords: exponential decay rate weight, gradient descent, inverse proportional decay rate weight, momentum

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Prashant Verma, Prafulla K. Swain, K. K. Singh, Mukti Khetan

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Objective: In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In the modelling of count variables, there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortion among women in the Punjab state of India. It also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Materials and methods: The study included 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012-13). Poisson regression (PR), Negative binomial (NB) regression, zero hurdle negative binomial (ZHNB), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were employed to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions and to identify the determinants affecting the number of spontaneous abortions. Results: Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. Antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, total children born to a woman, woman's education and economic status were found to be the most significant factors affecting the occurrence of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions: The study offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count variables. Statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provided the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions and is recommended to be used to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests that women receive institutional Antenatal care to attain limited parity. It also advocates promoting higher education among women in Punjab, India.

Keywords: count data, spontaneous abortion, Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

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In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: N. H. Harun, A. S. Abdul Nasir, M. Y. Mashor, R. Hassan

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Leukaemia is a blood cancer disease that contributes to the increment of mortality rate in Malaysia each year. There are two main categories for leukaemia, which are acute and chronic leukaemia. The production and development of acute leukaemia cells occurs rapidly and uncontrollable. Therefore, if the identification of acute leukaemia cells could be done fast and effectively, proper treatment and medicine could be delivered. Due to the requirement of prompt and accurate diagnosis of leukaemia, the current study has proposed unsupervised pixel segmentation based on clustering algorithm in order to obtain a fully segmented abnormal white blood cell (blast) in acute leukaemia image. In order to obtain the segmented blast, the current study proposed three clustering algorithms which are k-means, fuzzy c-means and moving k-means algorithms have been applied on the saturation component image. Then, median filter and seeded region growing area extraction algorithms have been applied, to smooth the region of segmented blast and to remove the large unwanted regions from the image, respectively. Comparisons among the three clustering algorithms are made in order to measure the performance of each clustering algorithm on segmenting the blast area. Based on the good sensitivity value that has been obtained, the results indicate that moving k-means clustering algorithm has successfully produced the fully segmented blast region in acute leukaemia image. Hence, indicating that the resultant images could be helpful to haematologists for further analysis of acute leukaemia.

Keywords: acute leukaemia images, clustering algorithms, image segmentation, moving k-means

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Imen Debbabi, Hédi BelHadjSalah

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The Improved Element Free Galerkin (IEFG) method is presented to treat the steady states and the transient heat transfer problems. As a result of a combination between the Improved Moving Least Square (IMLS) approximation and the Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method, the IEFG's shape functions don't have the Kronecker delta property and the penalty method is used to impose the Dirichlet boundary conditions. In this paper, two heat transfer problems, transient and steady states, are studied to improve the efficiency of this meshfree method for 2D heat transfer problems. The performance of the IEFG method is shown using the comparison between numerical and analytic results.

Keywords: meshfree methods, the Improved Moving Least Square approximation (IMLS), the Improved Element Free Galerkin method (IEFG), heat transfer problems

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Juan C. Domínguez, Belén Del Saz-Orozco, María V. Alonso, Mercedes Oliet, Francisco Rodríguez

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In the present study, the kinetics of thermal degradation of a phenolic and lignin reinforced phenolic foams, and the lignin used as reinforcement were studied and the activation energies of their degradation processes were obtained by a DAEM model. The average values for five heating rates of the mean activation energies obtained were: 99.1, 128.2, and 144.0 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, 109.5, 113.3, and 153.0 kJ.mol-1 for the lignin reinforcement, and 82.1, 106.9, and 124.4 kJ. mol-1 for the lignin reinforced phenolic foam. The standard deviation ranges calculated for each sample were 1.27-8.85, 2.22-12.82, and 3.17-8.11 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, lignin and the reinforced foam, respectively. The DAEM model showed low mean square errors (< 1x10-5), proving that is a suitable model to study the kinetics of thermal degradation of the foams and the reinforcement.

Keywords: kinetics, lignin, phenolic foam, thermal degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Baoubadi Atozou, Koffi Akakpo

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Since the decade 2000, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat, and soybeans in biofuel production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Thus, prices for these agricultural products are rising in the world market. These cereals are the most important source of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries members’ population. These countries are highly dependent on imports of most of these products. Thereby, rising prices can have an important impact on import levels and consequently on food security in these countries. This study aims to analyze the interrelationship between the prices of these commodities and their volatilities, and their effects on imports of these agricultural products by each WAEMU ’country member. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the GARCH Multivariate model, and the Granger Causality Test are used in this investigation. The results show that import levels are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes as well as their volatility. In the short term as well as in the long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. There is a positive relationship in general between price volatility. And these volatilities have negative effects on the level of imports. The market characteristics affect food security in these countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. The policies makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

Keywords: price volatility, import of agricultural products, food safety, WAEMU

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: S. Malisuwan, J. Sivaraks, N. Madan, N. Suriyakrai

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The ever going evolution of advanced wireless technologies makes it financially impossible for military operations to completely manufacture their own equipment. Therefore, Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) and Modified-Off-The-Shelf (MOTS) are being considered in military mission with low-cost modifications. In this paper, we focus on the LTE multicast systems for military communication systems under tactical environments with jamming condition. We examine the influence of the colored noise jamming on the performance of the LTE multicast systems in terms of the average throughput. The simulation results demonstrate the degradation of the average throughput for different dynamic ranges of the colored noise jamming versus average SNR.

Keywords: performance, LTE, multicast, jamming, throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah, Nur’amirah Busu, M. Arif Fadzleen Zainal Abidin, M. Amlie A. Kasim

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Temperature distribution in Friction Stir Welding (FSW) of 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy is modeled using the Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation, transient thermal finite element analyses are performed. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and workpiece is used in the analysis. Three-dimensional model for simulated process is carried out by using Altair HyperWork, a commercially available software. Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in order to obtain the temperature distribution in the welded Aluminum plates during welding operation. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the workpiece.

Keywords: frictions stir welding, temperature distribution, finite element method, altair hyperwork

Procedia PDF Downloads 524

Authors: Mohammad Maruf Hasan

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been increased at a remarkable position around the globe in which emerging economies are getting more FDI compared to industrialized economies. This study aims to examine the determinants of inward FDI flows in Bangladesh. To estimate the long and short-run impact of the FDI determinants for 1996-2020, we employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results show that: (1) macroeconomic determinants, such as economic growth, infrastructure, and market size, have a significant and strong positive effect.(2) Inflation exchange rate shows insignificant effects, while trade openness has mixed (short-run negative, long-run positive) effects on FDI inflows in both the long and short run. (3) Current institutional determinants rule of law has a positive effect on FDI inflows but is statistically insignificant, political stability has a negative, and the rule of law has a considerable beneficial impact on inflows of FDI. (4) The macroeconomic factors have been determined to impact Bangladesh's FDI inflows. Finally, a stable macroeconomic climate is more effective at luring FDI, as this study confirms. From a policy perspective, this study will help the government and policymakers to make a new investment policy.

Keywords: determinants, FDI, ARDL, Bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Anh Duc Dang, Joachim Horn

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This paper presents a new approach to control robots, which can quickly find their swarm while tracking a moving target through the obstacles of the environment. In this approach, an artificial potential field is generated between each free-robot and the virtual attractive point of the swarm. This artificial potential field will lead free-robots to their swarm. The swarm-finding of these free-robots dose not influence the general motion of their swarm and nor other robots. When one singular robot approaches the swarm then its swarm-search will finish, and it will further participate with its swarm to reach the position of the target. The connections between member-robots with their neighbours are controlled by the artificial attractive/repulsive force field between them to avoid collisions and keep the constant distances between them in ordered formation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified in simulations.

Keywords: formation control, potential field method, obstacle avoidance, swarm intelligence, multi-agent systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 420

Authors: Manik Sharma, Ganapathy Krishnamurthi

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The cost of some drugs and medical treatments has risen in recent years, that many patients are having to go without. A classification project could make researchers more efficient. One of the more surprising reasons behind the cost is how long it takes to bring new treatments to market. Despite improvements in technology and science, research and development continues to lag. In fact, finding new treatment takes, on average, more than 10 years and costs hundreds of millions of dollars. If successful, we could dramatically improve the industry's ability to model cellular images according to their relevant biology. In turn, greatly decreasing the cost of treatments and ensure these treatments get to patients faster. This work aims at solving a part of this problem by creating a cellular image classification model which can decipher the genetic perturbations in cell (occurring naturally or artificially). Another interesting question addressed is what makes the deep-learning model decide in a particular fashion, which can further help in demystifying the mechanism of action of certain perturbations and paves a way towards the explainability of the deep-learning model.

Keywords: cellular images, genetic perturbations, deep-learning, explainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Changmin Jiang

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In this paper, we build a theoretical model to investigate the relationship between two recent trends in airline frequent-flyer programs (FFPs): the adoption of the “coalition” business model with other commercial partners, and the separation from airlines’ operations. We show that commercial partners benefit from teaming up with FFP, while increasing the number of commercial partners will increase the total profit; it reduces the average profit of the parties involved. Furthermore, we show that the number of commercial partners of an FFP is negatively related with the benefit to keep the FFP in-house.

Keywords: frequent flyer program, coalition, commercial partners, spin-off

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: K. Zehouani, I. Oldal

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Purpose: In the human knee joint, degenerative joint disease may happen with time. The standard treatment of this disease is the total knee replacement through prosthesis implanting. The reason lies in the fact that this phenomenon causes different material abrasion as compare to pure sliding or rolling alone. This study focuses on developing a knee prosthesis geometry, which fulfills the mechanical and kinematical requirements. Method: The MSC ADAMS program is used to describe the rotation of the human knee joint as a function of flexion, and to investigate how the flexion and rotation movement changes between the condyles of a multi-body model of the knee prosthesis as a function of flexion angle (in the functional arc of the knee (20-120º)). Moreover, the multi-body model with identical boundary conditions is constituted, and the numerical simulations are carried out using the MSC ADAMS program system. Results: It is concluded that the use of the multi-body model reduces time and cost since it does not need to manufacture the tibia and the femur as it requires for the knee prosthesis of the test machine. Moreover, without measuring or by dispensing with a test machine for the knee prosthesis geometry, approximation of the results of our model to a human knee is carried out directly. Conclusion: The pattern obtained by the multi-body model provides an insight for future experimental tests related to the rotation and flexion of the knee joint concerning the actual average and friction load.

Keywords: biomechanics, knee joint, rotation, flexion, kinematics, MSC ADAMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: M. T. Tsepav, Y. Adamu, M. A. Umar

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A geoelectric survey was carried out in some parts of Angwan Gwari, an outskirt of Lapai Local Government Area on Niger State which belongs to the Nigerian Basement Complex, with the aim of evaluating the soil corrosivity, aquifer transmissivity and protective capacity of the area from which aquifer characterisation was made. The G41 Resistivity Meter was employed to obtain fifteen Schlumberger Vertical Electrical Sounding data along profiles in a square grid network. The data were processed using interpex 1-D sounding inversion software, which gives vertical electrical sounding curves with layered model comprising of the apparent resistivities, overburden thicknesses and depth. This information was used to evaluate longitudinal conductance and transmissivities of the layers. The results show generally low resistivities across the survey area and an average longitudinal conductance variation from 0.0237Siemens in VES 6 to 0.1261 Siemens in VES 15 with almost the entire area giving values less than 1.0 Siemens. The average transmissivity values range from 96.45 Ω.m2 in VES 4 to 299070 Ω.m2 in VES 1. All but VES 4 and VES14 had an average overburden greater than 400 Ω.m2, these results suggest that the aquifers are highly permeable to fluid movement within, leading to the possibility of enhanced migration and circulation of contaminants in the groundwater system and that the area is generally corrosive.

Keywords: geoelectric survey, corrosivity, protective capacity, transmissivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Cesar Hernández, Diego Giral, Ingrid Páez

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This article proposes a hybrid algorithm for spectrum allocation in cognitive radio networks based on the algorithms Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to improve the performance of the spectrum mobility of secondary users in cognitive radio networks. To calculate the level of performance of the proposed algorithm a comparative analysis between the proposed AHP-TOPSIS, Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Multiplicative Exponent Weighting (MEW) algorithm is performed. Four evaluation metrics is used. These metrics are the accumulative average of failed handoffs, the accumulative average of handoffs performed, the accumulative average of transmission bandwidth, and the accumulative average of the transmission delay. The results of the comparison show that AHP-TOPSIS Algorithm provides 2.4 times better performance compared to a GRA Algorithm and, 1.5 times better than the MEW Algorithm.

Keywords: cognitive radio, decision making, hybrid algorithm, spectrum handoff, wireless networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Champika S. Kariyawasam

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The distribution of gorse (Ulex europaeus) plants in South Australia has been modelled using 126 presence-only location data as a function of seven climate parameters. The predicted range of U. europaeus is mainly along the Mount Lofty Ranges in the Adelaide Hills and on Kangaroo Island. Annual precipitation and yearly average aridity index appeared to be the highest contributing variables to the final model formulation. The Jackknife procedure was employed to identify the contribution of different variables to gorse model outputs and response curves were used to predict changes with changing environmental variables. Based on this analysis, it was revealed that the combined effect of one or more variables could make a completely different impact to the original variables on their own to the model prediction. This work also demonstrates the need for a careful approach when selecting environmental variables for projecting correlative models to climatically distinct area. Maxent acts as a robust model when projecting the fitted species distribution model to another area with changing climatic conditions, whereas the generalized linear model, bioclim, and domain models to be less robust in this regard. These findings are important not only for predicting and managing invasive alien gorse in South Australia and Sri Lanka but also in other countries of the invasive range.

Keywords: invasive species, Maxent, species distribution modelling, Ulex europaeus

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Zahra Khoshnood, Mehdi Kazaie, Sajedeh Neisi

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In 2013, 24 fish samples were taken from two fishery regions in the north of Persian Gulf near the Iranian coastal lines. The two flatfishes were Yellofin seabream (Acanthopagrus latus) and Longtail tuna (Thannus tonggol). We analyzed total Hg concentration of liver and muscle tissues by Mercury Analyzer (model LECO AMA 254). The average concentration of total Hg in edible Muscle tissue of deep-Flounder was measured in Bandar-Abbas and was found to be 18.92 and it was 10.19 µg.g-1 in Bandar-Lengeh. The corresponding values for Oriental sole were 8.47 and 0.08 µg.g-1. The average concentration of Hg in liver tissue of deep-Flounder, in Bandar-Abbas was 25.49 and that in Bandar-Lengeh was 12.52 µg.g-1.the values for Oriental sole were 11.88 and 3.2 µg.g-1 in Bandar-Abbas and Bandar-Lengeh, respectively.

Keywords: mercury, Acanthopagrus latus, Thannus tonggol, Persian Gulf

Procedia PDF Downloads 583

Authors: A. Ghafouri, N. Pourmahmoud, I. Mirzaee

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In this numerical study, effects of using Al2O3-water nanofluid on the rate of heat transfer have been investigated numerically. The physical model is a square enclosure with insulated top and bottom horizontal walls while the vertical walls are kept at different constant temperatures. Two appropriate models are used to evaluate the viscosity and thermal conductivity of nanofluid. The governing stream-vorticity equations are solved using a second order central finite difference scheme, coupled to the conservation of mass and energy. The study has been carried out for the nanoparticle diameter 30, 60, and 90 nm and the solid volume fraction 0 to 0.04. Results are presented by average Nusselt number and normalized Nusselt number in the different range of φ and D for mixed convection dominated regime. It is found that different heat transfer rate is predicted when the effect of nanoparticle diameter is taken into account.

Keywords: nanofluid, nanoparticle diameter, heat transfer enhancement, square enclosure, Nusselt number

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah

Abstract:

Finite element approach have been used via three-dimensional models by using Altair Hyper Work, a commercially available software, to describe heat gradients along the welding zones (axially and coronaly) in Friction Stir Welding (FSW). Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in AA 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and work piece is used in the analysis. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the work piece.

Keywords: Frictions Stir Welding (FSW), temperature distribution, Finite Element Method (FEM), altair hyperwork

Procedia PDF Downloads 516

Authors: Cesar Hernández, Diego Giral, Fernando Santa

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The spectral handoff is important in cognitive wireless networks to ensure an adequate quality of service and performance for secondary user communications. This work proposes a benchmarking of performance of the three spectrum handoff models: VIKOR, SAW and MEW. Four evaluation metrics are used. These metrics are, accumulative average of failed handoffs, accumulative average of handoffs performed, accumulative average of transmission bandwidth and, accumulative average of the transmission delay. As a difference with related work, the performance of the three spectrum handoff models was validated with captured data of spectral occupancy in experiments realized at the GSM frequency band (824 MHz-849 MHz). These data represent the actual behavior of the licensed users for this wireless frequency band. The results of the comparative show that VIKOR Algorithm provides 15.8% performance improvement compared to a SAW Algorithm and, 12.1% better than the MEW Algorithm.

Keywords: cognitive radio, decision making, MEW, SAW, spectrum handoff, VIKOR

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Ammar Alsabery, Habibis Saleh, Norazam Arbin, Ishak Hashim

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Unsteady natural convection and heat transfer in a square cavity partially filled with porous media using a thermal non-equilibrium model is studied in this paper. The left vertical wall is maintained at a constant hot temperature and the right vertical wall is maintained at a constant cold temperature, while the horizontal walls are adiabatic. The governing equations are obtained by applying the Darcy model and Boussinesq approximation. COMSOL's finite element method is used to solve the non-dimensional governing equations together with specified boundary conditions. The governing parameters of this study are the Rayleigh number, the modified thermal conductivity ratio, the inter-phase heat transfer coefficien and the time independent. The results presented for values of the governing parameters in terms of streamlines in both fluid/porous layer, isotherms of fluid and solid porous layer, isotherms of fluid layer, and average Nusselt number.

Keywords: unsteady natural convection, thermal non-equilibrium model, Darcy model

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Authors: Jarumon Nookhong, Thanakorn Uiphanit

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This study is a research and development project which aims to develop XML Resume System to be the standard system in Thailand as well as to measure the efficiency of the XML Resume System in Thailand. This research separates into 2 stages: 1) to develop XML Document System to be the standard in Thailand, and 2) to experiment the system performance. The sample in this research is committed by 50 specialists in the field of human resources by selecting specifically. The tool that uses in this research is XML Resume System in Thailand and the performance evaluation format of system while the analysis of the data is calculated by using average and standard deviation. The result of the research found that the development of the XML Resume System that aims to be the standard system in Thailand had the result 2.67 of the average which is in a good level. The evaluation in testing the performance of the system had been done by the specialists of human resources who use the XML Resume system. When analyzing each part, it found out that the abilities according to the user’s requirement from specialists in the field of human resources, the convenience and easiness in usages, and the functional competency are respectively in a good level. The average of the ability according to the user’s need from specialists of human resources is 2.92. The average of the convenience and easiness in usages is 2.56. The average of functional competency is 2.53. These can be used as the standard effectively.

Keywords: resume, XML, XML schema, computer science

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Fouzi Harrou, Ying Sun, Sofiane Khadraoui

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Anomaly detection based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was studied intensively and largely applied to multivariate processes with highly cross-correlated process variables. Monitoring metrics such as the Hotelling's T2 and the Q statistics are usually used in PCA-based monitoring to elucidate the pattern variations in the principal and residual subspaces, respectively. However, these metrics are ill suited to detect small faults. In this paper, the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) based on the Q and T statistics, T2-EWMA and Q-EWMA, were developed for detecting faults in the process mean. The performance of the proposed methods was compared with that of the conventional PCA-based fault detection method using synthetic data. The results clearly show the benefit and the effectiveness of the proposed methods over the conventional PCA method, especially for detecting small faults in highly correlated multivariate data.

Keywords: data-driven method, process control, anomaly detection, dimensionality reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Kamal KC, Zhendong Yin, Dasen Li, Zhilu Wu

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Intra-plant disease classification based on leaf images is a challenging computer vision task due to similarities in texture, color, and shape of leaves with a slight variation of leaf spot; and external environmental changes such as lighting and background noises. Deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) has proven to be an effective tool for binary classification. In this paper, two methods for binary classification of diseased plant leaves using DCNN are presented; model created from scratch and transfer learning. Our main contribution is a thorough evaluation of 4 networks created from scratch and transfer learning of 5 pre-trained models. Training and testing of these models were performed on a plant leaf images dataset belonging to 16 distinct classes, containing a total of 22,265 images from 8 different plants, consisting of a pair of healthy and diseased leaves. We introduce a deep CNN model, Optimized MobileNet. This model with depthwise separable CNN as a building block attained an average test accuracy of 99.77%. We also present a fine-tuning method by introducing the concept of a convolutional block, which is a collection of different deep neural layers. Fine-tuned models proved to be efficient in terms of accuracy and computational cost. Fine-tuned MobileNet achieved an average test accuracy of 99.89% on 8 pairs of [healthy, diseased] leaf ImageSet.

Keywords: deep convolution neural network, depthwise separable convolution, fine-grained classification, MobileNet, plant disease, transfer learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Merve Aydin, Mağfiret Kara Kaşikçi

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Aim: To determine the perceptions of inpatients about care at Farabi Hospital in KTU. Material and Method: This research was conducted by using the universe known examples of formulas and probability selected by sampling method with 277 chosen patients in the hospital at least 14 days in other internal and surgical clinics except for pediatric, psychiatry, and intensive care unit services between January-March 2014 in KTU Farabi Hospital. The data was collected through the forms of nursing care perception scale of patients and defining characteristics of patients. In the evaluation of data, percentage, mean, Mann Whitney U, Student t and Kurskall Wallis tests were applied. Results: The average point the patients got in nursing care perception scale is 62.64±10.08’dir. 48.7 % of patients regard nursing care well and 36.8 % of them regard it very well. 19 % of the patients regard nursing care badly. When the age, sex, occupation, marital status, educational background, residential place, income level, hospitalization period, hospitalization clinic and having a hospital attendant were compared with nursing care perception average point, the difference among point averages was not found meaningful statistically (p > 0.05). The average point of nursing care perception was found greater in those having chronic disease (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The perception point of patients about nursing care is above the average according to the average of the lowest and highest points. The great majority of patients regard nursing care well or very well.

Keywords: hospital, patient, perception of nursing care, nursing care

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Authors: Amr AbdelAzim Ali, G. A. Elsheikh, Moutaz M. Hegazy

Abstract:

Reaction wheels (RWs) are generally used as main actuator in the attitude control system (ACS) of spacecraft (SC) for fast orientation and high pointing accuracy. In order to achieve the required accuracy for the RWs model, the main characteristics of the RWs that necessitate analysis during the ACS design phase include: technical features, sequence of operating and RW control logic are included in function (behavior) model. A mathematical model is developed including the various errors source. The errors in control torque including relative, absolute, and error due to time delay. While the errors in angular velocity due to differences between average and real speed, resolution error, loose in installation of angular sensor, and synchronization errors. The friction torque is presented in the model include the different feature of friction phenomena: steady velocity friction, static friction and break-away torque, and frictional lag. The model response is compared with the experimental torque and frequency-response characteristics of tested RWs. Based on the created RW model, some criteria of optimization based control torque allocation problem can be recommended like: avoiding the zero speed crossing, bias angular velocity, or preventing wheel from running on the same angular velocity.

Keywords: friction torque, reaction wheels modeling, software in the loop, spacecraft attitude control

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Authors: Umberto Cerasani, Luca Cerasani

Abstract:

Methods for earthquakes forecasting have been intensively investigated in the last decades, but there is still no universal solution agreed by seismologists. Rock failure is most often preceded by a tiny elastic movement in the failure area and by the appearance of micro-cracks. These micro-cracks could be detected at the soil surface and represent useful earth-quakes precursors. The aim of this study was to verify whether tiny raw acceleration signals (in the 10⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ cm/s² range) prior to the arrival of main primary-waves could be exploitable and related to earthquakes magnitude. Mathematical tools such as Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), moving average and wavelets have been applied on raw acceleration data available on the ITACA web site, and the study focused on one of the most unpredictable earth-quakes, i.e., the August 24th, 2016 at 01H36 one that occurred in the central Italy area. It appeared that these tiny acceleration signals preceding main P-waves have different patterns both on frequency and time domains for high magnitude earthquakes compared to lower ones.

Keywords: earthquake, accelerometer, earthquake forecasting, seism

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