Search results for: Bayesian estimation

Authors: Aftab Khan, Ashfaq Khan

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The research paper focuses on an interesting challenge faced in Blind Image Deblurring (BID). It relates to the estimation of arbitrarily shaped or non-parametric Point Spread Functions (PSFs) of motion blur caused by camera handshake. These PSFs exhibit much more complex shapes than their parametric counterparts and deblurring in this case requires intricate ways to estimate the blur and effectively remove it. This research work introduces a novel blind deblurring scheme visualized for deblurring images corrupted by arbitrarily shaped PSFs. It is based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and utilises the Blind/Reference-less Image Spatial QUality Evaluator (BRISQUE) measure as the fitness function for arbitrarily shaped PSF estimation. The proposed BID scheme has been compared with other single image motion deblurring schemes as benchmark. Validation has been carried out on various blurred images. Results of both benchmark and real images are presented. Non-reference image quality measures were used to quantify the deblurring results. For benchmark images, the proposed BID scheme using BRISQUE converges in close vicinity of the original blurring functions.

Keywords: blind deconvolution, blind image deblurring, genetic algorithm, image restoration, image quality measures

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: A. Mansouri, F. Krim

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This paper presents two techniques for DC motor parameters identification. We propose a numerical method using the adaptive extensive recursive least squares (AERLS) algorithm for real time parameters estimation. This algorithm, based on minimization of quadratic criterion, is realized in simulation for parameters identification of DC motor autoregressive moving average with extra inputs (ARMAX). As advanced technique, we use genetic algorithms (GA) identification with biased estimation for high dynamic performance speed regulation. DC motors are extensively used in variable speed drives, for robot and solar panel trajectory control. GA effectiveness is derived through comparison of the two approaches.

Keywords: ARMAX model, DC motor, AERLS, GA, optimization, parameter identification, PID speed regulation

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Authors: Zsolt János Viharos, Krisztián Balázs Kis, Imre Paniti, Gábor Belső, Péter Németh, János Farkas

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The paper presents the results and industrial applications in the production setup period estimation based on industrial data inherited from the field of polymer cutting. The literature of polymer cutting is very limited considering the number of publications. The first polymer cutting machine is known since the second half of the 20th century; however, the production of polymer parts with this kind of technology is still a challenging research topic. The products of the applying industrial partner must met high technical requirements, as they are used in medical, measurement instrumentation and painting industry branches. Typically, 20% of these parts are new work, which means every five years almost the entire product portfolio is replaced in their low series manufacturing environment. Consequently, it requires a flexible production system, where the estimation of the frequent setup periods' lengths is one of the key success factors. In the investigation, several (input) parameters have been studied and grouped to create an adequate training information set for an artificial neural network as a base for the estimation of the individual setup periods. In the first group, product information is collected such as the product name and number of items. The second group contains material data like material type and colour. In the third group, surface quality and tolerance information are collected including the finest surface and tightest (or narrowest) tolerance. The fourth group contains the setup data like machine type and work shift. One source of these parameters is the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) but some data were also collected from Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings. The number of the applied tools is one of the key factors on which the industrial partners’ estimations were based previously. The artificial neural network model was trained on several thousands of real industrial data. The mean estimation accuracy of the setup periods' lengths was improved by 30%, and in the same time the deviation of the prognosis was also improved by 50%. Furthermore, an investigation on the mentioned parameter groups considering the manufacturing order was also researched. The paper also highlights the manufacturing introduction experiences and further improvements of the proposed methods, both on the shop floor and on the quotation preparation fields. Every week more than 100 real industrial setup events are given and the related data are collected.

Keywords: artificial neural network, low series manufacturing, polymer cutting, setup period estimation

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Kaleem Kashif, Tayyaba Anam, Yizhi Wu

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This paper introduces a methodology for advancing Italian speech vowels landmark detection within the distinctive feature-based speech recognition domain. Leveraging the legacy tool 'xkl' by integrating combined convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the study presents a comprehensive enhancement to the 'xkl' legacy software. This integration incorporates re-assigned spectrogram methodologies, enabling meticulous acoustic analysis. Simultaneously, our proposed model, integrating combined CNNs and RNNs, demonstrates unprecedented precision and robustness in landmark detection. The augmentation of re-assigned spectrogram fusion within the 'xkl' software signifies a meticulous advancement, particularly enhancing precision related to vowel formant estimation. This augmentation catalyzes unparalleled accuracy in landmark detection, resulting in a substantial performance leap compared to conventional methods. The proposed model emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the distinctive feature-based speech recognition systems domain. In the realm of deep learning, a synergistic integration of combined CNNs and RNNs is introduced, endowed with specialized temporal embeddings, harnessing self-attention mechanisms, and positional embeddings. The proposed model allows it to excel in capturing intricate dependencies within Italian speech vowels, rendering it highly adaptable and sophisticated in the distinctive feature domain. Furthermore, our advanced temporal modeling approach employs Bayesian temporal encoding, refining the measurement of inter-landmark intervals. Comparative analysis against state-of-the-art models reveals a substantial improvement in accuracy, highlighting the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology. Upon rigorous testing on a database (LaMIT) speech recorded in a silent room by four Italian native speakers, the landmark detector demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a 95% true detection rate and a 10% false detection rate. A majority of missed landmarks were observed in proximity to reduced vowels. These promising results underscore the robust identifiability of landmarks within the speech waveform, establishing the feasibility of employing a landmark detector as a front end in a speech recognition system. The synergistic integration of re-assigned spectrogram fusion, CNNs, RNNs, and Bayesian temporal encoding not only signifies a significant advancement in Italian speech vowels landmark detection but also positions the proposed model as a leader in the field. The model offers distinct advantages, including unparalleled accuracy, adaptability, and sophistication, marking a milestone in the intersection of deep learning and distinctive feature-based speech recognition. This work contributes to the broader scientific community by presenting a methodologically rigorous framework for enhancing landmark detection accuracy in Italian speech vowels. The integration of cutting-edge techniques establishes a foundation for future advancements in speech signal processing, emphasizing the potential of the proposed model in practical applications across various domains requiring robust speech recognition systems.

Keywords: landmark detection, acoustic analysis, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Ha Phuong Tran, Feng Wang, Jo Dewulf, Hai Trung Huynh, Thomas Schaubroeck

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The fast increase and complex components have made waste of electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) one of the most problematic waste streams worldwide. Precise information on its size on national, regional and global level has therefore been highlighted as prerequisite to obtain a proper management system. However, this is a very challenging task, especially in developing countries where both formal e-waste management system and necessary statistical data for e-waste estimation, i.e. data on the production, sale and trade of electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), are often lacking. Moreover, there is an inflow of non-registered electronic and electric equipment, which ‘invisibly’ enters the EEE domestic market and then is used for domestic consumption. The non-registration/invisibility and (in most of the case) illicit nature of this flow make it difficult or even impossible to be captured in any statistical system. The e-waste generated from it is thus often uncounted in current e-waste estimation based on statistical market data. Therefore, this study focuses on enhancing e-waste estimation in developing countries and proposing a calculation pathway to quantify the magnitude of the non-registered EEE inflow. An advanced Input-Out Analysis model (i.e. the Sale–Stock–Lifespan model) has been integrated in the calculation procedure. In general, Sale-Stock-Lifespan model assists to improve the quality of input data for modeling (i.e. perform data consolidation to create more accurate lifespan profile, model dynamic lifespan to take into account its changes over time), via which the quality of e-waste estimation can be improved. To demonstrate the above objectives, a case study on televisions (TVs) in Vietnam has been employed. The results show that the amount of waste TVs in Vietnam has increased four times since 2000 till now. This upward trend is expected to continue in the future. In 2035, a total of 9.51 million TVs are predicted to be discarded. Moreover, estimation of non-registered TV inflow shows that it might on average contribute about 15% to the total TVs sold on the Vietnamese market during the whole period of 2002 to 2013. To tackle potential uncertainties associated with estimation models and input data, sensitivity analysis has been applied. The results show that both estimations of waste and non-registered inflow depend on two parameters i.e. number of TVs used in household and the lifespan. Particularly, with a 1% increase in the TV in-use rate, the average market share of non-register inflow in the period 2002-2013 increases 0.95%. However, it decreases from 27% to 15% when the constant unadjusted lifespan is replaced by the dynamic adjusted lifespan. The effect of these two parameters on the amount of waste TV generation for each year is more complex and non-linear over time. To conclude, despite of remaining uncertainty, this study is the first attempt to apply the Sale-Stock-Lifespan model to improve the e-waste estimation in developing countries and to quantify the non-registered EEE inflow to domestic consumption. It therefore can be further improved in future with more knowledge and data.

Keywords: e-waste, non-registered electrical and electronic equipment, TVs, Vietnam

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Authors: Zaouche Mohamed, Amini Mohamed, Foughali Khaled, Aitkaid Souhila, Bouchiha Nihad Sarah

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The aerodynamic coefficients are important in the evaluation of an aircraft performance and stability-control characteristics. These coefficients also can be used in the automatic flight control systems and mathematical model of flight simulator. The study of the aerodynamic aspect of flying systems is a reserved domain and inaccessible for the developers. Doing tests in a wind tunnel to extract aerodynamic forces and moments requires a specific and expensive means. Besides, the glaring lack of published documentation in this field of study makes the aerodynamic coefficients determination complicated. This work is devoted to the identification of an aerodynamic model, by using an aircraft in virtual simulated environment. We deal with the identification of the system, we present an environment framework based on Software In the Loop (SIL) methodology and we use Microsoft^TM Flight Simulator (FS-2004) as the environment for plane simulation. We propose The Total Least Squares Estimation technique (TLSE) to identify the aerodynamic parameters, which are unknown, variable, classified and used in the expression of the piloting law. In this paper, we define each aerodynamic coefficient as the mean of its numerical values. All other variations are considered as modeling uncertainties that will be compensated by the robustness of the piloting control.

Keywords: aircraft aerodynamic model, total least squares estimation, piloting the aircraft, robust control, Microsoft Flight Simulator, MQ-1 predator

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Authors: Marcus Walter, Norbert Nitzsche, Dirk Odenthal, Steffen Müller

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This contribution presents a friction estimator for industrial purposes which identifies Coulomb friction in a steering system. The estimator only needs a few, usually known, steering system parameters. Friction occurs on almost every mechanical system and has a negative influence on high-precision position control. This is demonstrated on a steering angle controller for highly automated driving. In this steering system the friction induces limit cycles which cause oscillating vehicle movement when the vehicle follows a given reference trajectory. When compensating the friction with the introduced estimator, limit cycles can be suppressed. This is demonstrated by measurements in a series vehicle.

Keywords: friction estimation, friction compensation, steering system, lateral vehicle guidance

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Authors: Ahmed Rouili

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Cantilever L-shaped walls are known to be relatively economical as retaining solution. The design starts by proportioning the wall dimensions for which the stability is checked for. A ratio between the lengths of the base and the stem, falling between 0,5 to 0,7, ensure the stability requirements in most cases. However, the displacement pattern of the wall in terms of rotations and translations, and the lateral pressure profile, do not have the same figure for all wall’s proportioning, as it is usually assumed. In the present work, the results of a numerical analysis are presented, different wall geometries were considered. The results show that the proportioning governs the equilibrium between the instantaneous rotation and the translation of the wall-toe, also, the lateral pressure estimation based on the average value between the at-rest and the active pressure, recommended by most design standards, is found to be not applicable for all walls.

Keywords: cantilever wall, proportioning, numerical analysis, lateral pressure estimation

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

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After feasibility study the design phase is started and the rest of other phases are highly dependent on this phase. forecasting the duration of design phase could do a miracle and would save a lot of time. This study provides a fast and accurate Machine learning (ML) and optimization framework, which allows a quick duration estimation of project design phase, hence improving operational efficiency and competitiveness of a design construction company. 3 data sets of three years composed of daily time spent for different design projects are used to train and validate the ML models to perform multiple projects. Our study concluded that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) performed an accuracy of 0.94.

Keywords: time estimation, machine learning, Artificial neural network, project design phase

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Authors: Z. Masoumi, B. Moaveni

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This article is about first step of structural health monitoring by identifying structural system in the presence of unknown input. In the structural system identification, identification of structural parameters such as stiffness and damping are considered. In this study, the Kalman filter (KF) design for structural systems with unknown excitation is expressed. External excitations, such as earthquakes, wind or any other forces are not measured or not available. The purpose of this filter is its strengths to estimate the state variables of the system in the presence of unknown input. Also least squares estimation (LSE) method with unknown input is studied. Estimates of parameters have been adopted. Finally, using two examples advantages and drawbacks of both methods are studied.

Keywords: Kalman filter (KF), least square estimation (LSE), structural health monitoring (SHM), structural system identification

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Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

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The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: crack, critical flow, leak, roughness

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Authors: Muhammad Ashraf

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It is experimentally conceded reality that education not just promotes social and intellectual abilities yet, in addition, the incomes of people. The present study is directed to investigate the connection between education level and student income. Data of different education levels is acquired from 300 students through field review from four public sector Universities; two from upper Punjab (University of Gujarat and Government college university-Lahore) and two from lower Punjab (Islamia University-Bahawalpur and The University of Sahiwal). Two-phase estimation is based on the Mincerian human capital model. The first stage presents statistical/descriptive investigation, which shows positive linkage among higher education and income of the students. Econometric estimation is estimated in the second stage by applying Ordinary least Square Method (OLS). Econometric examination reaffirms the importance of higher education as the impact of higher education on students’ incomes accelerates as we move from lower-level education to higher-level education. Educational levels, experience, and working hours are sure and noteworthy with student’s income. Econometric estimation additionally investigated that M. Phil and Ph.D. students have a higher income than bachelor students. Concerning the students, the income profile study commended that the Government ought to give part-time jobs or internships to students as indicated to labor market demand.

Keywords: education, student’s income, experience, universities

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Authors: Seyed Esmail Seyedi Bariran, Khairul Salleh Mohamed Sahari

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In robotics literature, the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is commonly associated with a priori-posteriori problem. The autonomous vehicle needs a neutral map to spontaneously track its local position, i.e., “localization” while at the same time a precise path estimation of the environment state is required for effective route planning and obstacle avoidance. On the other hand, the environmental noise factors can significantly intensify the inherent uncertainties in using odometry information and measurements obtained from the robot’s exteroceptive sensor which in return directly affect the overall performance of the corresponding SLAM. Therefore, the current work is primarily dedicated to provide a diagnostic analysis of six SLAM algorithms including FastSLAM, L-SLAM, GraphSLAM, Grid SLAM and DP-SLAM. A SLAM simulated environment consisting of two sets of landmark locations and robot waypoints was set based on modified EKF and UKF in MATLAB using two separate maps for indoor and outdoor route planning subject to natural and artificial obstacles. The simulation results are expected to provide an unbiased platform to compare the estimation performances of the five SLAM models as well as on the reliability of each SLAM model for indoor and outdoor applications.

Keywords: route planning, obstacle, estimation performance, FastSLAM, L-SLAM, GraphSLAM, Grid SLAM, DP-SLAM

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation

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Authors: M. Khalid, G. N. Singh

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In this paper, we have considered the problems of estimation for the population mean on current (second) occasion in two-occasion successive sampling under random non-response situations. Some modified exponential type estimators have been proposed and their properties are studied under the assumptions that the number of sampling unit follows a discrete distribution due to random non-response situations. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with linear combinations of two estimators, (a) sample mean estimator for fresh sample and (b) ratio estimator for matched sample under the complete response situations. Results are demonstrated through empirical studies which present the effectiveness of the proposed estimators. Suitable recommendations have been made to the survey practitioners.

Keywords: modified exponential estimator, successive sampling, random non-response, auxiliary variable, bias, mean square error

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Authors: Youngsun Moon, Yeong-Ju Go, Jong-Soo Choi

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Most drones that currently have surveillance/reconnaissance missions are basically equipped with optical equipment, but we also need to use a microphone array to estimate the location of the acoustic source. This can provide additional information in the absence of optical equipment. The purpose of this study is to estimate Direction of Arrival (DOA) based on Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) estimation of the acoustic source in the drone. The problem is that it is impossible to measure the clear target acoustic source because of the drone noise. To overcome this problem is to separate the drone noise and the target acoustic source using Blind Source Separation(BSS) based on Independent Component Analysis(ICA). ICA can be performed assuming that the drone noise and target acoustic source are independent and each signal has non-gaussianity. For maximized non-gaussianity each signal, we use Negentropy and Kurtosis based on probability theory. As a result, we can improve TDOA estimation and DOA estimation of the target source in the noisy environment. We simulated the performance of the DOA algorithm applying BSS algorithm, and demonstrated the simulation through experiment at the anechoic wind tunnel.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, acoustic source detection, time difference of arrival, direction of arrival, blind source separation, independent component analysis, drone

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Authors: Hamza Benzerrouk, Alexander Nebylov

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In classical GNSS/INS integration designs, the loosely coupled approach uses the GNSS derived position and the velocity as the measurements vector. This design is suboptimal from the standpoint of preventing GNSSoutliers/outages. The tightly coupled GPS/INS navigation filter mixes the GNSS pseudo range and inertial measurements and obtains the vehicle navigation state as the final navigation solution. The ultra‐tightly coupled GNSS/INS design combines the I (inphase) and Q(quadrature) accumulator outputs in the GNSS receiver signal tracking loops and the INS navigation filter function intoa single Kalman filter variant (EKF, UKF, SPKF, CKF and HCKF). As mentioned, EKF and UKF are the most used nonlinear filters in the literature and are well adapted to inertial navigation state estimation when integrated with GNSS signal outputs. In this paper, it is proposed to move a step forward with more accurate filters and modern approaches called Cubature and High Degree cubature Kalman Filtering methods, on the basis of previous results solving the state estimation based on INS/GNSS integration, Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) and High Degree Cubature Kalman Filter with (HCKF) are the references for the recent developed generalized Cubature rule based Kalman Filter (GCKF). High degree cubature rules are the kernel of the new solution for more accurate estimation with less computational complexity compared with the Gauss-Hermite Quadrature (GHQKF). Gauss-Hermite Kalman Filter GHKF which is not selected in this work because of its limited real-time implementation in high-dimensional state-spaces. In ultra tightly or a deeply coupled GNSS/INS system is dynamics EKF is used with transition matrix factorization together with GNSS block processing which is well described in the paper and assumes available the intermediary frequency IF by using a correlator samples with a rate of 500 Hz in the presented approach. GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) measurements are assumed available and modern SPKF with Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) are compared with new versions of CKF called high order CKF based on Spherical-radial cubature rules developed at the fifth order in this work. Estimation accuracy of the high degree CKF is supposed to be comparative to GHKF, results of state estimation are then observed and discussed for different initialization parameters. Results show more accurate navigation state estimation and more robust GNSS receiver when Ultra Tightly Coupled approach applied based on High Degree Cubature Kalman Filter.

Keywords: GNSS, INS, Kalman filtering, ultra tight integration

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Authors: Safa Lazzem, Faouzi Jilani

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The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of diversification strategy on the nature of the relationship between leverage and accrual-based earnings management through panel-estimation techniques based on a sample of 162 nonfinancial French firms indexed in CAC All-Tradable during the period from 2006 to 2012. The empirical results show that leverage increases encourage managers to manipulate earnings management. Our findings prove that the diversification strategy provides the needed context for this accounting practice to be possible in highly diversified firms. In addition, the results indicate that diversification moderates the relationship between leverage and accrual-based earnings management by changing the nature and the sign of this relationship.

Keywords: diversification, earnings management, leverage, panel-estimation techniques

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

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Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification

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Authors: Amrane Meriem, Oukid Salyha

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The presence of defects or bugs in software can lead to costly setbacks, operational inefficiencies, and compromised user experiences. The integration of Machine Learning(ML) techniques has emerged to predict and preemptively address software defects. ML represents a proactive strategy aimed at identifying potential anomalies, errors, or vulnerabilities within code before they manifest as operational issues. By analyzing historical data, such as code changes, feature im- plementations, and defect occurrences. This en- ables development teams to anticipate and mitigate these issues, thus enhancing software quality, reducing maintenance costs, and ensuring smoother user interactions. In this work, we used a recommendation system to improve the performance of ML models in terms of predicting the code severity and effort estimation.

Keywords: software engineering, machine learning, bugs detection, effort estimation

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Authors: Bouthiba Amina

Abstract:

The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

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Authors: Komlan Sedzro

Abstract:

We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance

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Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

Abstract:

Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

Abstract:

Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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Authors: Shu-Yu Chung, Ying-Fang Wang, Shih-Min Wang

Abstract:

To conduct long-term exposure assessments are important for workers exposed to chemicals with chronic effects. However, it usually encounters with several constrains, including cost, workers' willingness, and interference to work practice, etc., leading to inadequate long-term exposure data in the real world. In this study, an integrated approach was developed for conducting long-term exposure assessment for welding workers in a shipbuilding factory. A laboratory study was conducted to yield the fume generation rates under various operating conditions. The results and the measured environmental conditions were applied to the near field/far field (NF/FF) model for predicting long term fume exposures via the Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the predicted long-term concentrations were used to determine the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis (BDA). Finally, the resultant posterior distributions were used to assess the long-term exposure and serve as basis for initiating control strategies for shipbuilding workers. Results show that the NF/FF model was a suitable for predicting the exposures of metal contents containing in welding fume. The resultant posterior distributions could effectively assess the long-term exposures of shipbuilding welders. Welders' long-term Fe, Mn and Pb exposures were found with high possibilities to exceed the action level indicating preventive measures should be taken for reducing welders' exposures immediately. Though the resultant posterior distribution can only be regarded as the best solution based on the currently available predicting and monitoring data, the proposed integrated approach can be regarded as a possible solution for conducting long term exposure assessment in the field.

Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis, exposure assessment, near field and far field model, shipbuilding industry, welding fume

Procedia PDF Downloads 118