Search results for: parameter selection

Authors: Babatunde Kolawole

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This paper embarks on an exploration of the compelling interplay between documentary filmmaking and activism, delving into their symbiotic relationship and profound impact on advocacy and social justice causes. Through an in-depth analysis of diverse case studies, it seeks to illuminate the instances where documentary films have emerged as potent tools for effecting social change and advancing the principles of justice. This research underscores the vital role played by documentary filmmakers in harnessing the medium's unique capacity to engage, educate, and mobilize audiences while advocating for societal transformation. The primary focus of this study is on a selection of compelling case studies spanning various topics and causes, each exemplifying the marriage between documentary filmmaking and activism. These case studies encompass a broad spectrum of subjects, from environmental conservation and climate change to civil rights movements and human rights struggles. By examining these real-world instances, this paper endeavors to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategies, challenges, and ethical considerations that underpin the practice of documentary filmmaking as a form of activism. Throughout the paper, it becomes evident that the potency of documentary filmmaking lies in its ability to blend artistry with social impact. The selected case studies vividly demonstrate how documentary filmmakers, armed with cameras and a passion for change, have emerged as critical agents of societal transformation. Whether it be exposing environmental atrocities, shedding light on systemic inequalities, or giving voice to marginalized communities, these documentaries have played a pivotal role in pushing the boundaries of advocacy and social justice. One of the key themes explored in this paper is the evolving nature of documentary filmmaking as a tool for activism. It delves into the shift from traditional observational documentaries to more participatory and immersive approaches, highlighting the dynamic ways in which filmmakers engage with their subjects and audiences. This evolution is exemplified in case studies where filmmakers have collaborated with the communities they document, fostering a sense of agency and empowerment among those whose stories are being told. Furthermore, this research underscores the ethical considerations inherent in the intersection of documentary filmmaking and activism. It scrutinizes questions surrounding representation, objectivity, and the responsibility of filmmakers in portraying complex social issues. By dissecting ethical dilemmas faced by documentary filmmakers in these case studies, this paper encourages a critical examination of the ethical boundaries and obligations in the realm of advocacy-driven filmmaking. In conclusion, this paper aims to shed light on the remarkable potential of documentary filmmaking as a catalyst for activism and social justice. Through the lens of compelling case studies, it illustrates the transformative power of the medium in effecting change, amplifying underrepresented voices, and mobilizing global audiences. It is hoped that this research will not only inform the discourse on documentary activism but also inspire filmmakers, scholars, and advocates to continue leveraging the cinematic art form as a formidable force for a more just and equitable world.

Keywords: film, filmmaker, documentary, human right

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Authors: J. Ticona Chambi, E. A. De Almeida, C. A. Andrade Raymundo Gaiotto, A. M. Do Espírito Santo, L. Infantes, S. L. Cuffini

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The solubility of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is challenging for the pharmaceutical industry. The new multicomponent crystalline forms as cocrystal and solvates present an opportunity to improve the solubility of APIs. Commonly, the procedure to obtain multicomponent crystalline forms of a drug starts by screening the drug molecule with the different coformers/solvents. However, it is necessary to develop methods to obtain multicomponent forms in an efficient way and with the least possible environmental impact. The Hansen Solubility Parameters (HSPs) is considered a tool to obtain theoretical knowledge of the solubility of the target compound in the chosen solvent. H-Bond Propensity (HBP), Molecular Complementarity (MC), Coordination Values (CV) are tools used for statistical prediction of cocrystals developed by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Center (CCDC). The HSPs and the CCDC tools are based on inter- and intra-molecular interactions. The curcumin (Cur), target molecule, is commonly used as an anti‐inflammatory. The demethoxycurcumin (Demcur) and bisdemethoxycurcumin (Bisdcur) are natural analogues of Cur from turmeric. Those target molecules have differences in their solubilities. In this way, the work aimed to analyze and compare different tools for multicomponent forms prediction (solvates) of Cur, Demcur and Biscur. The HSP values were calculated for Cur, Demcur, and Biscur using the chemical group contribution methods and the statistical optimization from experimental data. The HSPmol software was used. From the HSPs of the target molecules and fifty solvents (listed in the HSP books), the relative energy difference (RED) was determined. The probability of the target molecules would be interacting with the solvent molecule was determined using the CCDC tools. A dataset of fifty molecules of different organic solvents was ranked for each prediction method and by a consensus ranking of different combinations: HSP, CV, HBP and MC values. Based on the prediction, 15 solvents were selected as Dimethyl Sulfoxide (DMSO), Tetrahydrofuran (THF), Acetonitrile (ACN), 1,4-Dioxane (DOX) and others. In a starting analysis, the slow evaporation technique from 50°C at room temperature and 4°C was used to obtain solvates. The single crystals were collected by using a Bruker D8 Venture diffractometer, detector Photon100. The data processing and crystal structure determination were performed using APEX3 and Olex2-1.5 software. According to the results, the HSPs (theoretical and optimized) and the Hansen solubility sphere for Cur, Demcur and Biscur were obtained. With respect to prediction analyses, a way to evaluate the predicting method was through the ranking and the consensus ranking position of solvates already reported in the literature. It was observed that the combination of HSP-CV obtained the best results when compared to the other methods. Furthermore, as a result of solvent selected, six new solvates, Cur-DOX, Cur-DMSO, Bicur-DOX, Bircur-THF, Demcur-DOX, Demcur-ACN and a new Biscur hydrate, were obtained. Crystal structures were determined for Cur-DOX, Biscur-DOX, Demcur-DOX and Bicur-Water. Moreover, the unit-cell parameter information for Cur-DMSO, Biscur-THF and Demcur-ACN were obtained. The preliminary results showed that the prediction method is showing a promising strategy to evaluate the possibility of forming multicomponent. It is currently working on obtaining multicomponent single crystals.

Keywords: curcumin, HSPs, prediction, solvates, solubility

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Authors: Irfan Anjum Manarvi, Fawzi Aljassir

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Human bones have been a keen area of research over a long time in the field of biomechanical engineering. Medical professionals, as well as engineering academics and researchers, have investigated various bones by using medical, mechanical, and materials approaches to discover the available body of knowledge. Their major focus has been to establish properties of these and ultimately develop processes and tools either to prevent fracture or recover its damage. Literature shows that mechanical professionals conducted a variety of tests for hardness, deformation, and strain field measurement to arrive at their findings. However, they considered these results accuracy to be insufficient due to various limitations of tools, test equipment, difficulties in the availability of human bones. They proposed the need for further studies to first overcome inaccuracies in measurement methods, testing machines, and experimental errors and then carry out experimental or theoretical studies. Finite Element analysis is a technique which was developed for the aerospace industry due to the complexity of design and materials. But over a period of time, it has found its applications in many other industries due to accuracy and flexibility in selection of materials and types of loading that could be theoretically applied to an object under study. In the past few decades, the field of biomechanical engineering has also started to see its applicability. However, the work done in the area of Tarsals, metatarsals and phalanges using this technique is very limited. Therefore, present research has been focused on using this technique for analysis of these critical bones of the human body. This technique requires a 3-dimensional geometric computer model of the object to be analyzed. In the present research, a 3d laser scanner was used for accurate geometric scans of individual tarsals, metatarsals, and phalanges from a typical human foot to make these computer geometric models. These were then imported into a Finite Element Analysis software and a length refining process was carried out prior to analysis to ensure the computer models were true representatives of actual bone. This was followed by analysis of each bone individually. A number of constraints and load conditions were applied to observe the stress and strain distributions in these bones under the conditions of compression and tensile loads or their combination. Results were collected for deformations in various axis, and stress and strain distributions were observed to identify critical locations where fracture could occur. A comparative analysis of failure properties of all the three types of bones was carried out to establish which of these could fail earlier which is presented in this research. Results of this investigation could be used for further experimental studies by the academics and researchers, as well as industrial engineers, for development of various foot protection devices or tools for surgical operations and recovery treatment of these bones. Researchers could build up on these models to carryout analysis of a complete human foot through Finite Element analysis under various loading conditions such as walking, marching, running, and landing after a jump etc.

Keywords: tarsals, metatarsals, phalanges, 3D scanning, finite element analysis

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Authors: Sagar Saroha, Sawan S. Sinha, Sunil Lakshmipathy

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Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model is the popular computational tool for prediction of turbulent flows. Being computationally less expensive as compared to direct numerical simulation (DNS), RANS has received wide acceptance in industry and research community as well. However, for high Reynolds number flows, the traditional RANS approach based on the Boussinesq hypothesis is incapacitated to capture all the essential flow characteristics, and thus, its performance is restricted in high Reynolds number flows of practical interest. RANS performance turns out to be inadequate in regimes like flow over curved surfaces, flows with rapid changes in the mean strain rate, duct flows involving secondary streamlines and three-dimensional separated flows. In the recent decade, partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) methodology has gained acceptability among seamless bridging methods of turbulence- placed between DNS and RANS. PANS methodology, being a scale resolving bridging method, is inherently more suitable than RANS for simulating turbulent flows. The superior ability of PANS method has been demonstrated for some cases like swirling flows, high-speed mixing environment, and high Reynolds number turbulent flows. In our work, we intend to evaluate PANS in case of separated turbulent flows past bluff bodies -which is of broad aerodynamic research and industrial application. PANS equations, being derived from base RANS, continue to inherit the inadequacies from the parent RANS model based on linear eddy-viscosity model (LEVM) closure. To enhance PANS’ capabilities for simulating separated flows, the shortcomings of the LEVM closure need to be addressed. Inabilities of the LEVMs have inspired the development of non-linear eddy viscosity models (NLEVM). To explore the potential improvement in PANS performance, in our study we evaluate the PANS behavior in conjugation with NLEVM. Our work can be categorized into three significant steps: (i) Extraction of PANS version of NLEVM from RANS model, (ii) testing the model in the homogeneous turbulence environment and (iii) application and evaluation of the model in the canonical case of separated non-homogeneous flow field (flow past prismatic bodies and bodies of revolution at high Reynolds number). PANS version of NLEVM shall be derived and implemented in OpenFOAM -an open source solver. Homogeneous flows evaluation will comprise the study of the influence of the PANS’ filter-width control parameter on the turbulent stresses; the homogeneous analysis performed over typical velocity fields and asymptotic analysis of Reynolds stress tensor. Non-homogeneous flow case will include the study of mean integrated quantities and various instantaneous flow field features including wake structures. Performance of PANS + NLEVM shall be compared against the LEVM based PANS and LEVM based RANS. This assessment will contribute to significant improvement of the predictive ability of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools in massively separated turbulent flows past bluff bodies.

Keywords: bridging methods of turbulence, high Re-CFD, non-linear PANS, separated turbulent flows

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Authors: Katerina Krizova, Inigo Molina

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The ongoing climate change affects various natural processes resulting in significant changes in human life. Since there is still a growing human population on the planet with more or less limited resources, agricultural production became an issue and a satisfactory amount of food has to be reassured. To achieve this, agriculture is being studied in a very wide context. The main aim here is to increase primary production on a spatial unit while consuming as low amounts of resources as possible. In Europe, nowadays, the staple issue comes from significantly changing the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. Recent growing seasons have been considerably affected by long drought periods that have led to quantitative as well as qualitative yield losses. To cope with such kind of conditions, new techniques and technologies are being implemented in current practices. However, behind assessing the right management, there is always a set of the necessary information about plot properties that need to be acquired. Remotely sensed data had gained attention in recent decades since they provide spatial information about the studied surface based on its spectral behavior. A number of space platforms have been launched carrying various types of sensors. Spectral indices based on calculations with reflectance in visible and NIR bands are nowadays quite commonly used to describe the crop status. However, there is still the staple limit by this kind of data - cloudiness. Relatively frequent revisit of modern satellites cannot be fully utilized since the information is hidden under the clouds. Therefore, microwave remote sensing, which can penetrate the atmosphere, is on its rise today. The scientific literature describes the potential of radar data to estimate staple soil (roughness, moisture) and vegetation (LAI, biomass, height) properties. Although all of these are highly demanded in terms of agricultural monitoring, the crop moisture content is the utmost important parameter in terms of agricultural drought monitoring. The idea behind this study was to exploit the unique combination of SAR (Sentinel-1) and optical (Sentinel-2) data from one provider (ESA) to describe potential crop water stress during dry cropping season of 2019 at six winter wheat plots in the central Czech Republic. For the period of January to August, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images were obtained and processed. Sentinel-1 imagery carries information about C-band backscatter in two polarisations (VV, VH). Sentinel-2 was used to derive vegetation properties (LAI, FCV, NDWI, and SAVI) as support for Sentinel-1 results. For each term and plot, summary statistics were performed, including precipitation data and soil moisture content obtained through data loggers. Results were presented as summary layouts of VV and VH polarisations and related plots describing other properties. All plots performed along with the principle of the basic SAR backscatter equation. Considering the needs of practical applications, the vegetation moisture content may be assessed using SAR data to predict the drought impact on the final product quality and yields independently of cloud cover over the studied scene.

Keywords: precision agriculture, remote sensing, Sentinel-1, SAR, water content

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Authors: Cristina Maria Mendoza Sanchez, Maria Angeles Navarro Perán

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Introduction: Nursing as a profession, from its initial formation and after its development in practice, has been built and identified mainly from its technical competence and professionalization within the positivist approach of the XIX century that provides a conception of the disease built on the basis of to the biomedical paradigm, where the care provided is more focused on the physiological processes and the disease than on the suffering person understood as a whole. The main issue that is in need of study here is a review of the nursing profession's history to get to know how the nursing profession was before the XIX century. It is unclear if there were organizations or people with knowledge about looking after others or if many people survived by chance. The holistic care, in which the appearance of the disease directly affects all its dimensions: physical, emotional, cognitive, social and spiritual. It is not a concept from the 21st century. It is common practice, most probably since established life in this world, with the final purpose of covering all these perspectives through quality care. Objective: In this paper, we describe and analyze the history of education in nursing learning in terms of reviewing and analysing theoretical foundations of clinical teaching and learning in nursing, with the final purpose of determining and describing the development of the nursing profession along the history. Method: We have done a descriptive systematic review study, doing a systematically searched of manuscripts and articles in the following health science databases: Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science, Temperamentvm and CINAHL. The selection of articles has been made according to PRISMA criteria, doing a critical reading of the full text using the CASPe method. A compliment to this, we have read a range of historical and contemporary sources to support the review, such as manuals of Florence Nightingale and John of God as primary manuscripts to establish the origin of modern nursing and her professionalization. We have considered and applied ethical considerations of data processing. Results: After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria in our search, in Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science, Temperamentvm and CINAHL, we have obtained 51 research articles. We have analyzed them in such a way that we have distinguished them by year of publication and the type of study. With the articles obtained, we can see the importance of our background as a profession before modern times in public health and as a review of our past to face challenges in the near future. Discussion: The important influence of key figures other than Nightingale has been overlooked and it emerges that nursing management and development of the professional body has a longer and more complex history than is generally accepted. Conclusions: There is a paucity of studies on the subject of the review to be able to extract very precise evidence and recommendations about nursing before modern times. But even so, as more representative data, an increase in research about nursing history has been observed. In light of the aspects analyzed, the need for new research in the history of nursing emerges from this perspective; in order to germinate studies of the historical construction of care before the XIX century and theories created then. We can assure that pieces of knowledge and ways of care were taught before the XIX century, but they were not called theories, as these concepts were created in modern times.

Keywords: nursing history, nursing theory, Saint John of God, Florence Nightingale, learning, nursing education

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Authors: Momoka Sunohara, Ashley J. Lemieux, Esther Yakobov, Andrew G. Ryder, Tomas Jurcik

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Immigration brings changes in many aspects of an individual's life, from social support dynamics, to housing and language, as well as difficulties with regards to discrimination, trauma, and loss. Past research has mostly emphasized individual differences in mental health and has neglected the impact of social-ecological context, such as acculturation and ethnic density. Purpose: The present study aimed to assess the relationship between variables associated with social integration such as perceived ethnic density and ways of coping, as well as psychological adjustment in a rapidly growing non-visible minority group of immigrants in Canada. Data: A small subset of an archival data from our previously published study was reanalyzed with additional variables. Data included information from 269 Russian-Speaking immigrants in Montreal, Canada. Method: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) investigated the relationship between two sets of variables. SAS PROC CANCORR was used to conduct CCA on a set of social integration variables, including ethnic density, discrimination, social support, family functioning, and acculturation, and a set of psychological well-being variables, including distress, depression, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. In addition, canonical redundancy analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of variances of original variables explained by their own canonical variates. Results: Significance tests using Rao’s F statistics indicated that the first two canonical correlations (i.e., r1 = 0.64, r2 = 0.40) were statistically significant (p-value < 0.0001). Additionally, canonical redundancy analysis showed that the first two well-being canonical variates explained separately 62.9% and 12.8% variances of the standardized well-being variables, whereas the first two social integration canonical variates explained separately 14.7% and 16.7% variances of the standardized social integration variables. These results support the selection of the first two canonical correlations. Then, we interpreted the derived canonical variates based on their canonical structure (i.e., correlations with original variables). Two observations can be concluded. First, individuals who have adequate social support, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and reframing are more likely to have better self-esteem, greater life satisfaction and experience less feelings of depression or distress. Second, individuals who feel discriminated yet rate higher on a mainstream acculturation scale, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and using spirituality, while using less passive strategies are more likely to have better life satisfaction but also higher degree of depression. Implications: This model may serve to explain the complex interactions that exist between social and emotional adjustment and aid in facilitating the integration of individuals immigrating into new communities. The same group may experience greater depression but paradoxically improved life satisfaction associated with their coping process. Such findings need to be placed in the context of Russian cultural values. For instance, some Russian-speakers may value the expression of negative emotions with significant others during the integration process; this in turn may make negative emotions more salient, but also facilitate a greater sense of family and community connection, as well as life satisfaction.

Keywords: acculturation, ethnic density, mental health, Russian-speaking

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Authors: Flordeliza L. Mercado, Teresito G. Aguinaldo, Helen F. Gavino, Victorino T. Taylan

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Most fruits and vegetables are available in large quantities during peak season which are oftentimes marketed at low price and left to rot or fed to farm animals. The lack of efficient storage facilities, and the additional cost and unavailability of small machinery for food processing, results to low price and wastage. Incidentally, processed fresh fruits and vegetables are gaining importance nowadays and health conscious people are also into ‘juicing’. One way to reduce wastage and ensure an all-season availability of crop juices at reasonable costs is to develop equipment for effective extraction of juice. The study was conducted to design, fabricate and evaluate a multi-juice extractor using locally available materials, making it relatively cheaper and affordable for medium-scale enterprises. The study was also conducted to formulate juice blends using extracted juices and calamansi juice at different blending percentage, and evaluate its chemical properties and sensory attributes. Furthermore, the chemical properties of extracted meals were evaluated for future applications. The multi-juice extractor has an overall dimension of 963mm x 300mm x 995mm, a gross weight of 82kg and 5 major components namely; feeding hopper, extracting chamber, juice and meal outlet, transmission assembly, and frame. The machine performance was evaluated based on juice recovery, extraction efficiency, extraction rate, extraction recovery, and extraction loss considering type of crop as apple and carrot with three replications each and was analyzed using T-test. The formulated juice blends were subjected to sensory evaluation and data gathered were analyzed using Analysis of Variance appropriate for Complete Randomized Design. Results showed that the machine’s juice recovery (73.39%), extraction rate (16.40li/hr), and extraction efficiency (88.11%) for apple were significantly higher than for carrot while extraction recovery (99.88%) was higher for apple than for carrot. Extraction loss (0.12%) was lower for apple than for carrot, but was not significantly affected by crop. Based on adding percentage mark-up on extraction cost (Php 2.75/kg), the breakeven weight and payback period for a 35% mark-up is 4,710.69kg and 1.22 years, respectively and for a 50% mark-up, the breakeven weight is 3,492.41kg and the payback period is 0.86 year (10.32 months). Results on the sensory evaluation of juice blends showed that the type of juice significantly influenced all the sensory parameters while the blending percentage including their respective interaction, had no significant effect on all sensory parameters, making the apple-calamansi juice blend more preferred than the carrot-calamansi juice blend in terms of all the sensory parameter. The machine’s performance is higher for apple than for carrot and the cost analysis on the use of the machine revealed that it is financially viable with a payback period of 1.22 years (35% mark-up) and 0.86 year (50% mark-up) for machine cost, generating an income of Php 23,961.60 and Php 34,444.80 per year using 35% and 50% mark-up, respectively. The juice blends were of good qualities based on the values obtained in the chemical analysis and the extracted meal could also be used to produce another product based on the values obtained from proximate analysis.

Keywords: food processing, fruits and vegetables, juice extraction, multi-juice extractor

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Authors: Ani Kojoyan

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Linguistic studies have been investigating a connection between gender and linguistic development since 1970s. Scholars claim that gender differences in first and second language learning are socially constructed. Recent studies to language learning and gender reveal that second language acquisition is also a social phenomenon directly influencing one’s gender identity. Those responsible for designing language learning-teaching materials should be encouraged to understand the importance of and address the gender sensitivity accurately in textbooks. Writing or compiling a textbook is not an easy task; it requires strong academic abilities, patience, and experience. For a long period of time Armenia has been involved in the compilation process of a number of foreign language textbooks. However, there have been very few discussions or evaluations of those textbooks which will allow specialists to theorize that practice. The present paper focuses on the analysis of gender sensitivity issues and policy aspects involved in an EFL textbook. For the research the following material has been considered – “A Basic English Grammar: Morphology”, first printed in 2011. The selection of the material is not accidental. First, the mentioned textbook has been widely used in university teaching over years. Secondly, in Armenia “A Basic English Grammar: Morphology” has considered one of the most successful English grammar textbooks in a university teaching environment and served a source-book for other authors to compile and design their textbooks. The present paper aims to find out whether an EFL textbook is gendered in the Armenian teaching environment, and whether the textbook compilers are aware of gendered messages while compiling educational materials. It also aims at investigating students’ attitude toward the gendered messages in those materials. And finally, it also aims at increasing the gender sensitivity among book compilers and educators in various educational settings. For this study qualitative and quantitative research methods of analyses have been applied, the quantitative – in terms of carrying out surveys among students (45 university students, 18-25 age group), and the qualitative one – by discourse analysis of the material and conducting in-depth and semi-structured interviews with the Armenian compilers of the textbook (interviews with 3 authors). The study is based on passive and active observations and teaching experience done in a university classroom environment in 2014-2015, 2015-2016. The findings suggest that the discussed and analyzed teaching materials (145 extracts and examples) include traditional examples of intensive use of language and role-modelling, particularly, men are mostly portrayed as active, progressive, aggressive, whereas women are often depicted as passive and weak. These modeled often serve as a ‘reliable basis’ for reinforcing the traditional roles that have been projected on female and male students. The survey results also show that such materials contribute directly to shaping learners’ social attitudes and expectations around issues of gender. The applied techniques and discussed issues can be generalized and applied to other foreign language textbook compilation processes, since those principles, regardless of a language, are mostly the same.

Keywords: EFL textbooks, gender policy, gender sensitivity, qualitative and quantitative research methods

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Authors: Rupesh S. Gundewar, Kanchan C. Khare

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Runoff contribution from urban areas is generally from manmade structures and few natural contributors. The manmade structures are buildings; roads and other paved areas whereas natural contributors are groundwater and overland flows etc. Runoff alleviation is done by manmade as well as natural storages. Manmade storages are storage tanks or other storage structures such as soakways or soak pits which are more common in western and European countries. Natural storages are catchment slope, infiltration, catchment length, channel rerouting, drainage density, depression storage etc. A literature survey on the manmade and natural storages/inflow has presented percentage contribution of each individually. Sanders et.al. in their research have reported that a vegetation canopy reduces runoff by 7% to 12%. Nassif et el in their research have reported that catchment slope has an impact of 16% on bare standard soil and 24% on grassed soil on rainfall runoff. Infiltration being a pervious/impervious ratio dependent parameter is catchment specific. But a literature survey has presented a range of 15% to 30% loss of rainfall runoff in various catchment study areas. Catchment length and channel rerouting too play a considerable role in reduction of rainfall runoff. Ground infiltration inflow adds to the runoff where the groundwater table is very shallow and soil saturates even in a lower intensity storm. An approximate percent contribution through this inflow and surface inflow contributes to about 2% of total runoff volume. Considering the various contributing factors in runoff it has been observed during a literature survey that integrated modelling approach needs to be considered. The traditional storm water network models are able to predict to a fair/acceptable degree of accuracy provided no interaction with receiving water (river, sea, canal etc), ground infiltration, treatment works etc. are assumed. When such interactions are significant then it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extent using the traditional discrete modelling approach. As a result the correct flooding situation is very rarely addressed accurately. Since the development of spatially distributed hydrologic model the predictions have become more accurate at the cost of requiring more accurate spatial information.The integrated approach provides a greater understanding of performance of the entire catchment. It enables to identify the source of flow in the system, understand how it is conveyed and also its impact on the receiving body. It also confirms important pain points, hydraulic controls and the source of flooding which could not be easily understood with discrete modelling approach. This also enables the decision makers to identify solutions which can be spread throughout the catchment rather than being concentrated at single point where the problem exists. Thus it can be concluded from the literature survey that the representation of urban details can be a key differentiator to the successful understanding of flooding issue. The intent of this study is to accurately predict the runoff from impermeable areas from urban area in India. A representative area has been selected for which data was available and predictions have been made which are corroborated with the actual measured data.

Keywords: runoff, urbanization, impermeable response, flooding

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Authors: Hazel James P. Agngarayngay, Arnold R. Elepaño

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Mango is the third most important export fruit in the Philippines. Despite the expanding mango trade in world market, problems on postharvest losses caused by pests and diseases are still prevalent. Many disease control and pest disinfestation methods have been studied and adopted. Heat treatment is necessary to eliminate pests and diseases to be able to pass the quarantine requirements of importing countries. During heat treatments, temperature and time are critical because fruits can easily be damaged by over-exposure to heat. Modeling the process enables researchers and engineers to study the behaviour of temperature distribution within the fruit over time. Understanding physical processes through modeling and simulation also saves time and resources because of reduced experimentation. This research aimed to simulate the heat transfer mechanism and predict the temperature distribution in ‘Carabao' mangoes during hot water treatment (HWT) and extended hot water treatment (EHWT). The simulation was performed in ANSYS CFD Software, using ANSYS CFX Solver. The simulation process involved model creation, mesh generation, defining the physics of the model, solving the problem, and visualizing the results. Boundary conditions consisted of the convective heat transfer coefficient and a constant free stream temperature. The three-dimensional energy equation for transient conditions was numerically solved to obtain heat flux and transient temperature values. The solver utilized finite volume method of discretization. To validate the simulation, actual data were obtained through experiment. The goodness of fit was evaluated using mean temperature difference (MTD). Also, t-test was used to detect significant differences between the data sets. Results showed that the simulations were able to estimate temperatures accurately with MTD of 0.50 and 0.69 °C for the HWT and EHWT, respectively. This indicates good agreement between the simulated and actual temperature values. The data included in the analysis were taken at different locations of probe punctures within the fruit. Moreover, t-tests showed no significant differences between the two data sets. Maximum heat fluxes obtained at the beginning of the treatments were 394.15 and 262.77 J.s-1 for HWT and EHWT, respectively. These values decreased abruptly at the first 10 seconds and gradual decrease was observed thereafter. Data on heat flux is necessary in the design of heaters. If underestimated, the heating component of a certain machine will not be able to provide enough heat required by certain operations. Otherwise, over-estimation will result in wasting of energy and resources. This study demonstrated that the simulation was able to estimate temperatures accurately. Thus, it can be used to evaluate the influence of various treatment conditions on the temperature-time history in mangoes. When combined with information on insect mortality and quality degradation kinetics, it could predict the efficacy of a particular treatment and guide appropriate selection of treatment conditions. The effect of various parameters on heat transfer rates, such as the boundary and initial conditions as well as the thermal properties of the material, can be systematically studied without performing experiments. Furthermore, the use of ANSYS software in modeling and simulation can be explored in modeling various systems and processes.

Keywords: heat transfer, heat treatment, mango, modeling and simulation

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Authors: Pampita Chakraborty, Sukumar Mukherjee

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This study was done to determine the bacteriological profile and antibiotic resistance of the isolates and to find out the potential risk factors for infection with multidrug-resistant organisms. Diabetic foot ulcer is a major medical, social, economic problem and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in the developing countries like India. 25 percent of all diabetic patients develop a foot ulcer at some point in their lives which is highly susceptible to infections and that spreads rapidly, leading to overwhelming tissue destruction and subsequent amputation. Infection with multidrug resistant organisms (MDRO) may increase the cost of management and may cause additional morbidity and mortality. Proper management of these infections requires appropriate antibiotic selection based on culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Early diagnosis of microbial infections is aimed to institute the appropriate antibacterial therapy initiative to avoid further complications. A total of 200 Type 2 Diabetic Mellitus patients with infection were admitted at GD Hospital and Diabetes Institute, Kolkata. 60 of them who developed ulcer during the year 2013 were included in this study. A detailed clinical history and physical examination were carried out for every subject. Specimens for microbiological studies were obtained from ulcer region. Gram-negative bacilli were tested for extended spectrum Beta-lactamase (ESBL) production by double disc diffusion method. Staphylococcal isolates were tested for susceptibility to oxacillin by screen agar method and disc diffusion. Potential risk factors for MDRO-positive samples were explored. Gram-negative aerobes were most frequently isolated, followed by gram-positive aerobes. Males were predominant in the study and majority of the patients were in the age group of 41-60 years. The presence of neuropathy was observed in 80% cases followed by peripheral vascular disease (73%). Proteus spp. (22) was the most common pathogen isolated, followed by E.coli (17). Staphylococcus aureus was predominant amongst the gram-positive isolates. S.aureus showed a high rate of resistance to antibiotic tested (63.6%). Other gram-positive isolates were found to be highly resistant to erythromycin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin, 40% each. All isolates were found to be sensitive to Vancomycin and Linezolid. ESBL production was noted in Proteus spp and E.coli. Approximately 70 % of the patients were positive for MDRO. MDRO-infected patients had poor glycemic control (HbA1c 11± 2). Infection with MDROs is common in diabetic foot ulcers and is associated with risk factors like inadequate glycemic control, the presence of neuropathy, osteomyelitis, ulcer size and increased the requirement for surgical treatment. There is a need for continuous surveillance of resistant bacteria to provide the basis for empirical therapy and reduce the risk of complications.

Keywords: diabetic foot ulcer, bacterial infection, multidrug-resistant organism, extended spectrum beta-lactamase

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Authors: Liz Carmem Silva-Pereira, Raffael Alencar Mesquita Rodrigues, Francisco Helton Mendes Barbosa, Emerson de Freitas Ferreira

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Due to the Covid-19 pandemic declared in March 2020 by the World Health Organization, the way of social coexistence across the planet was affected, especially in educational processes, from the implementation of the remote modality as a teaching strategy. This teaching-learning modality caused a change in the routine and learning of basic education students, which resulted in serious consequences for the return to face-to-face teaching in 2021. 2022, at the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Pará (IFPA) – Campus Paragominas had their training process severely affected, having studied the initial half of their training in the remote modality, which compromised the carrying out of practical classes, technical visits and field classes, essential for the student formation on the environmental technician. With the objective of promoting the recomposition of these students' learning after returning to the face-to-face modality, an educational strategy was developed in the last period of the course. As teaching methodologies were used for research as an educational principle, the integrative project and the parallel recovery action applied jointly, aiming at recomposing the basic knowledge of the natural sciences, together with the technical knowledge of the environmental area applied to the course. The project assisted 58 finalist students of the environmental technical course. A research instrument was elaborated with parameters of evaluation of the environmental quality for study in 19 collection points, in the Uraim River urban hydrographic basin, in the Paragominas City – Pará – Brazilian Amazon. Students were separated into groups under the professors' and laboratory assistants’ orientation, and in the field, they observed and evaluated the places' environmental conditions and collected physical data and water samples, which were taken to the chemistry and biology laboratories at Campus Paragominas for further analysis. With the results obtained, each group prepared a technical report on the environmental conditions of each evaluated point. This work methodology enabled the practical application of theoretical knowledge received in various disciplines during the remote teaching modality, contemplating the integration of knowledge, people, skills, and abilities for the best technical training of finalist students. At the activity end, the satisfaction of the involved students in the project was evaluated, through a form, with the signing of the informed consent term, using the Likert scale as an evaluation parameter. The results obtained in the satisfaction survey were: on the use of research projects within the disciplines attended, 82% of satisfaction was obtained; regarding the revision of contents in the execution of the project, 84% of satisfaction was obtained; regarding the acquired field experience, 76.9% of satisfaction was obtained, regarding the laboratory experience, 86.2% of satisfaction was obtained, and regarding the use of this methodology as parallel recovery, 71.8% was obtained of satisfaction. In addition to the excellent performance of students in acquiring knowledge, it was possible to remedy the deficiencies caused by the absence of practical classes, technical visits, and field classes, which occurred during the execution of the remote teaching modality, fulfilling the desired educational recomposition.

Keywords: integrative project, parallel recovery, research as an educational principle, teaching-learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Heather Mroz

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Geothermal fluids can provide a nearly unlimited source of renewable energy but are often highly corrosive due to dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), Ammonia (NH3) and chloride ions. The corrosive environment drives material selection for many components, including piping, heat exchangers and pressure vessels, to higher alloys of stainless steel, nickel-based alloys and titanium. The use of these alloys is cost-prohibitive and does not offer the pressure rating of carbon steel. One solution, explosion cladding, has been proven to reduce the capital cost of the geothermal equipment while retaining the mechanical and corrosion properties of both the base metal and the cladded surface metal. Explosion cladding is a solid-state welding process that uses precision explosions to bond two dissimilar metals while retaining the mechanical, electrical and corrosion properties. The process is commonly used to clad steel with a thin layer of corrosion-resistant alloy metal, such as stainless steel, brass, nickel, silver, titanium, or zirconium. Additionally, explosion welding can join a wider array of compatible and non-compatible metals with more than 260 metal combinations possible. The explosion weld is achieved in milliseconds; therefore, no bulk heating occurs, and the metals experience no dilution. By adhering to a strict set of manufacturing requirements, both the shear strength and tensile strength of the bond will exceed the strength of the weaker metal, ensuring the reliability of the bond. For over 50 years, explosion cladding has been used in the oil and gas and chemical processing industries and has provided significant economic benefit in reduced maintenance and lower capital costs over solid construction. The focus of this paper will be on the many benefits of the use of explosion clad in process equipment instead of more expensive solid alloy construction. The method of clad-plate production with explosion welding as well as the methods employed to ensure sound bonding of the metals. It will also include the origins of explosion cladding as well as recent technological developments. Traditionally explosion clad plate was formed into vessels, tube sheets and heads but recent advances include explosion welded piping. The final portion of the paper will give examples of the use of explosion-clad metals in geothermal energy recovery. The classes of materials used for geothermal brine will be discussed, including stainless steels, nickel alloys and titanium. These examples will include heat exchangers (tube sheets), high pressure and horizontal separators, standard pressure crystallizers, piping and well casings. It is important to educate engineers and designers on material options as they develop equipment for geothermal resources. Explosion cladding is a niche technology that can be successful in many situations, like geothermal energy recovery, where high temperature, high pressure and corrosive environments are typical. Applications for explosion clad metals include vessel and heat exchanger components as well as piping.

Keywords: clad metal, explosion welding, separator material, well casing material, piping material

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Jonathan Kissi, Baozhen Dai, Wisdom W. K. Pomegbe, Abdul-Basit Kassim

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Protecting patient’s digital information is a growing concern for healthcare institutions as people nowadays perpetually live their lives through telemedicine services. These telemedicine services have been confronted with several determinants that hinder their successful implementations, especially in developing countries. Identifying such determinants that influence the acceptance of telemedicine services is also a problem for healthcare professionals. Despite the tremendous increase in telemedicine services, its adoption, and use has been quite slow in some healthcare settings. Generally, it is accepted in today’s globalizing world that the success of telemedicine services relies on users’ satisfaction. Satisfying health professionals and patients are one of the crucial objectives of telemedicine success. This study seeks to investigate the determinants that influence health professionals’ intention to utilize telemedicine services in clinical activities in a sub-Saharan African country in West Africa (Ghana). A hybridized model comprising of health adoption models, including technology acceptance theory, diffusion of innovation theory, and protection of motivation theory, were used to investigate these quandaries. The study was carried out in four government health institutions that apply and regulate telemedicine services in their clinical activities. A structured questionnaire was developed and used for data collection. Purposive and convenience sampling methods were used in the selection of healthcare professionals from different medical fields for the study. The collected data were analyzed based on structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. All selected constructs showed a significant relationship with health professional’s behavioral intention in the direction expected from prior literature including perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, management strategies, financial sustainability, communication channels, patients security threat, patients privacy risk, self efficacy, actual service use, user satisfaction, and telemedicine services systems securities threat. Surprisingly, user characteristics and response efficacy of health professionals were not significant in the hybridized model. The findings and insights from this research show that health professionals are pragmatic when making choices for technology applications and also their willingness to use telemedicine services. They are, however, anxious about its threats and coping appraisals. The identified significant constructs in the study may help to increase efficiency, quality of services, quality patient care delivery, and satisfactory user satisfaction among healthcare professionals. The implantation and effective utilization of telemedicine services in the selected hospitals will aid as a strategy to eradicate hardships in healthcare services delivery. The service will help attain universal health access coverage to all populace. This study contributes to empirical knowledge by identifying the vital factors influencing health professionals’ behavioral intentions to adopt telemedicine services. The study will also help stakeholders of healthcare to formulate better policies towards telemedicine service usage.

Keywords: telemedicine service, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, management strategies, security threats

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Petros M. Chronopoulos, Evangelos Z. Astreinidis

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A major issue of the structural assessment and rehabilitation of existing RC structures is the inadequate lap-splicing of the longitudinal reinforcement. Although prohibited by modern Design Codes, the practice of arranging lap-splices inside the critical regions of RC elements was commonly applied in the past. Today this practice is still the rule, at least for conventional new buildings. Therefore, a lot of relevant research is ongoing in many earthquake prone countries. The rehabilitation of deficient lap-splices of RC elements by means of external confinement is widely accepted as the most efficient technique. If correctly applied, this versatile technique offers a limited increase of flexural capacity and a considerable increase of local ductility and of axial and shear capacities. Moreover, this intervention does not affect the stiffness of the elements and does not affect the dynamic characteristics of the structure. This technique has been extensively discussed and researched contributing to vast accumulation of technical and scientific knowledge that has been reported in relevant books, reports and papers, and included in recent Design Codes and Guides. These references are mostly dealing with modeling and redesign, covering both the enhanced (axial and) shear capacity (due to the additional external closed hoops or jackets) and the increased ductility (due to the confining action, preventing the unzipping of lap-splices and the buckling of continuous reinforcement). An analytical and experimental program devoted to RC members with lap-splices is completed in the Lab. of RC/NTU of Athens/GR. This program aims at the proposal of a rational and safe theoretical model and the calibration of the relevant Design Codes’ provisions. Tests, on forty two (42) full scale specimens, covering mostly beams and columns (not walls), strengthened or not, with adequate or inadequate lap-splices, have been already performed and evaluated. In this paper, the results of twelve (12) specimens under fully reversed cyclic actions are presented and discussed. In eight (8) specimens the lap-splices were inadequate (splicing length of 20 or 30 bar diameters) and they were retrofitted before testing by means of additional external confinement. The two (2) most commonly applied confining materials were used in this study, namely steel and FRPs. More specifically, jackets made of CFRP wraps or light cages made of mild steel were applied. The main parameters of these tests were (i) the degree of confinement (internal and external), and (ii) the length of lap-splices, equal to 20, 30 or 45 bar diameters. These tests were thoroughly instrumented and monitored, by means of conventional (LVDTs, strain gages, etc.) and innovative (optic fibre-Bragg-grating) sensors. This allowed for a thorough investigation of the most influencing design parameter, namely the hoop-stress developed in the confining material. Based on these test results and on comparisons with the provisions of modern Design Codes, it could be argued that shorter (than the normative) lap-splices, commonly found in old structures, could still be effective and safe (at least for lengths more than an absolute minimum), depending on the required ductility, if a properly arranged and adequately detailed external confinement is applied.

Keywords: concrete, fibre-Bragg-grating sensors, lap-splices, retrofitting / rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu, Yuanyuan Liu, Yue Yang

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In the era of the knowledge economy, the relationship between scientific knowledge and patents has garnered significant attention. Understanding the intricate interplay between the foundations of science and technological innovation has emerged as a pivotal challenge for both researchers and policymakers. This study establishes a coupled network of artificial intelligence patents based on co-cited scientific papers. Leveraging centrality metrics from network analysis offers a fresh perspective on understanding the influence of information flow and knowledge sharing within the network on patent impact. The study initially obtained patent numbers for 446,890 granted US AI patents from the United States Patent and Trademark Office’s artificial intelligence patent database for the years 2002-2020. Subsequently, specific information regarding these patents was acquired using the Lens patent retrieval platform. Additionally, a search and deduplication process was performed on scientific non-patent references (SNPRs) using the Web of Science database, resulting in the selection of 184,603 patents that cited 37,467 unique SNPRs. Finally, this study constructs a coupled network comprising 59,379 artificial intelligence patents by utilizing scientific papers co-cited in patent backward citations. In this network, nodes represent patents, and if patents reference the same scientific papers, connections are established between them, serving as edges within the network. Nodes and edges collectively constitute the patent coupling network. Structural characteristics such as node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are employed to assess the scientific connections between patents, while citation count is utilized as a quantitative metric for patent influence. Finally, a negative binomial model is employed to test the nonlinear relationship between these network structural features and patent influence. The research findings indicate that network structural features such as node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality exhibit inverted U-shaped relationships with patent influence. Specifically, as these centrality metrics increase, patent influence initially shows an upward trend, but once these features reach a certain threshold, patent influence starts to decline. This discovery suggests that moderate network centrality is beneficial for enhancing patent influence, while excessively high centrality may have a detrimental effect on patent influence. This finding offers crucial insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of encouraging moderate knowledge flow and sharing to promote innovation when formulating technology policies. It suggests that in certain situations, data sharing and integration can contribute to innovation. Consequently, policymakers can take measures to promote data-sharing policies, such as open data initiatives, to facilitate the flow of knowledge and the generation of innovation. Additionally, governments and relevant agencies can achieve broader knowledge dissemination by supporting collaborative research projects, adjusting intellectual property policies to enhance flexibility, or nurturing technology entrepreneurship ecosystems.

Keywords: centrality, patent coupling network, patent influence, social network analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Deepak Loura

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Production and productivity of several crops in the country continue to be adversely affected by biotic (e.g., Insect-pests and diseases) and abiotic (e.g., water temperature and salinity) stresses. Over-dependence on pesticides and other chemicals is economically non-viable for the resource-poor farmers of our country. Further, pesticides can potentially affect human and environmental safety. While traditional breeding techniques and proper- management strategies continue to play a vital role in crop improvement, we need to judiciously use biotechnology approaches for the development of genetically modified crops addressing critical problems in the improvement of crop plants for sustainable agriculture. Modern biotechnology can help to increase crop production, reduce farming costs, and improve food quality and the safety of the environment. Genetic engineering is a new technology which allows plant breeders to produce plants with new gene combinations by genetic transformation of crop plants for improvement of agronomic traits. Advances in recombinant DNA technology have made it possible to have genes between widely divergent species to develop genetically modified or genetically engineered plants. Plant genetic engineering provides the strength to harness useful genes and alleles from indigenous microorganisms to enrich the gene pool for developing genetically modified (GM) crops that will have inbuilt (inherent) resistance to insect pests, diseases, and abiotic stresses. Plant biotechnology has made significant contributions in the past 20 years in the development of genetically engineered or genetically modified crops with multiple benefits. A variety of traits have been introduced in genetically engineered crops which include (i) herbicide resistance. (ii) pest resistance, (iii) viral resistance, (iv) slow ripening of fruits and vegetables, (v) fungal and bacterial resistance, (vi) abiotic stress tolerance (drought, salinity, temperature, flooding, etc.). (vii) quality improvement (starch, protein, and oil), (viii) value addition (vitamins, micro, and macro elements), (ix) pharmaceutical and therapeutic proteins, and (x) edible vaccines, etc. Multiple genes in transgenic crops can be useful in developing durable disease resistance and a broad insect-control spectrum and could lead to potential cost-saving advantages for farmers. The development of transgenic to produce high-value pharmaceuticals and the edible vaccine is also under progress, which requires much more research and development work before commercially viable products will be available. In addition, molecular-aided selection (MAS) is now routinely used to enhance the speed and precision of plant breeding. Newer technologies need to be developed and deployed for enhancing and sustaining agricultural productivity. There is a need to optimize the use of biotechnology in conjunction with conventional technologies to achieve higher productivity with fewer resources. Therefore, genetic modification/ engineering of crop plants assumes greater importance, which demands the development and adoption of newer technology for the genetic improvement of crops for increasing crop productivity.

Keywords: biotechnology, plant genetic engineering, genetically modified, biotic, abiotic, disease resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Ashok Kumar, Parveen Parveen

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India is bestowed with an extremely high population of plant species with medicinal value and even has two biodiversity hotspots. Indian systems of medicine including Ayurveda, Siddha and Unani have historically been serving humankind across the world since time immemorial. About 1500 plant species have well been documented in Ayurvedic Nighantus as official medicinal plants. Additionally, several hundred species of plants are being routinely used as medicines by local people especially tribes living in and around forests. The natural resources for medicinal plants have unscientifically been over-exploited forcing rapid depletion in their genetic diversity. Moreover, renewed global interest in herbal medicines may even lead to additional depletion of medicinal plant wealth of the country, as about 95% collection of medicinal plants for pharmaceutical preparation is being carried out from natural forests. On the other hand, huge export market of medicinal and aromatic plants needs to be seriously tapped for enhancing inflow of foreign currency. Asparagus racemosus Willd., a member of family Liliaceae, is one of thirty-two plant species that have been identified as priority species for cultivation and conservation by the National Medicinal Plant Board (NMPB), Government of India. Though attention is being focused on standardization of agro-techniques and extraction methods, little has been designed on genetic improvement and selection of desired types with higher root production and saponin content, a basic ingredient of medicinal value. The saponin not only improves defense mechanisms and controls diabetes but the roots of this species promote secretion of breast milk, improved lost body weight and considered as an aphrodisiac. There is ample scope for genetic improvement of this species for enhancing productivity substantially, qualitatively and quantitatively. It is emphasized to select desired genotypes with sufficient genetic diversity for important economic traits. Hybridization between two genetically divergent genotypes could result in the synthesis of new F1 hybrids consisting of useful traits of both the parents. The evaluation of twenty seed sources of Asparagus racemosus assembled different geographical locations of India revelled high degree of variability for traits of economic importance. The maximum genotypic and phenotypic variance was observed for shoot height among shoot related traits and for root length among root related traits. The shoot height, genotypic variance, phenotypic variance, genotypic coefficient of variance, the phenotypic coefficient of variance was recorded to be 231.80, 3924.80, 61.26 and 1037.32, respectively, where those of the root length were 9.55, 16.80, 23.46 and 41.27, respectively. The maximum genetic advance and genetic gain were obtained for shoot height among shoot-related traits and root length among root-related traits. Index values were developed for all seed sources based on the four most important traits, and Panthnagar (Uttrakhand), Jodhpur (Rajasthan), Dehradun (Uttarakhand), Chandigarh (Punjab), Jammu (Jammu & Kashmir) and Solan (Himachal Pradesh) were found to be promising seed sources.

Keywords: asparagus, genetic, genotypes, variance

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: J. S. M. Yang, G. E. T. Chua

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Diploma in Optometry (OPT) course is a three-year program offered by Ngee Ann Polytechnic (NP) to train students to provide primary eye care. Students are equipped with foundational conceptual knowledge and practical skills in the first three semesters before clinical modules in fourth to six semesters. In the clinical modules, students typically have difficulties in integrating the acquired knowledge and skills from the past semesters to perform general eye examinations on public patients at NP Optometry Centre (NPOC). To help the students overcome the challenge, a web-based game Virtual Optometrist (VO) was developed to help students apply their skills and knowledge through scenario-based learning. It consisted of two interfaces, Optical Practice Counter (OPC) and Optometric Consultation Room (OCR), to provide two simulated settings for authentic learning experiences. In OPC, students would recommend and provide appropriate frame and lens selection based on virtual patient’s case history. In OCR, students would diagnose and manage virtual patients with common ocular conditions. Simulated scenarios provided real-world clinical situations that required contextual application of integrated knowledge from relevant modules. The stages in OPC and OCR are of increasing complexity to align to expected students’ clinical competency as they progress to more senior semesters. This prevented gameplay fatigue as VO was used over the semesters to achieve different learning outcomes. Numerous feedback opportunities were provided to students based on their decisions to allow individualized learning to take place. The game-based learning element in VO was achieved through the scoreboard and leader board to enhance students' motivation to perform. Scores were based on the speed and accuracy of students’ responses to the questions posed in the simulated scenarios, preparing the students to perform accurately and effectively under time pressure in a realistic optometric environment. Learning analytics was generated in VO’s backend office based on students’ responses, offering real-time data on distinctive and observable learners’ behavior to monitor students’ engagement and learning progress. The backend office allowed versatility to add, edit, and delete scenarios for different intended learning outcomes. Likert Scale was used to measure students’ learning experience with VO for OPT Year 2 and 3 students. The survey results highlighted the learning benefits of implementing VO in the different modules, such as enhancing recall and reinforcement of clinical knowledge for contextual application to develop higher-order thinking skills, increasing efficiency in clinical decision-making, facilitating learning through immediate feedback and second attempts, providing exposure to common and significant ocular conditions, and training effective communication skills. The results showed that VO has been useful in reinforcing optometry students’ learning and supporting the development of higher-order thinking, increasing efficiency in clinical decision-making, and allowing students to learn from their mistakes with immediate feedback and second attempts. VO also exposed the students to diverse ocular conditions through simulated real-world clinical scenarios, which may otherwise not be encountered in NPOC, and promoted effective communication skills.

Keywords: authentic learning, game-based learning, scenario-based learning, simulated clinical scenarios

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Andreas Schweiger, Matthias Gnigler, Elisabeth Wieder, Michael Grobbauer

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Especially in the alpine region, available areas for new residential development are limited. One possible solution is to exploit the potential of existing settlements. Urban redensification, especially the addition of floors to existing buildings, requires efficient, lightweight constructions with short construction times. This topic is being addressed in the five-year Alpine Building Centre. The focus of this cooperation between Salzburg University of Applied Sciences and RSA GH Studio iSPACE is on transdisciplinary research in the fields of building and energy technology, building envelopes and geoinformation, as well as the transfer of research results to industry. One development objective is a system of wood panel system construction with a high degree of prefabrication to optimize the construction quality, the construction time and the applicability for small and medium-sized enterprises. The system serves as a reliable working basis for mastering the complex building task of redensification. The technical solution is the development of an open system in timber frame and solid wood construction, which is suitable for a maximum two-story addition of residential buildings. The applicability of the system is mainly influenced by the existing building stock. Therefore, timber frame and solid timber construction are combined where necessary to bridge large spans of the existing structure while keeping the dead weight as low as possible. Escape routes are usually constructed in reinforced concrete and are located outside the system boundary. Thus, within the framework of the legal and normative requirements of timber construction, a hybrid construction method for redensification created. Component structure, load-bearing structure and detail constructions are developed in accordance with the relevant requirements. The results are directly applicable in individual cases, with the exception of the required verifications. In order to verify the practical suitability of the developed system, stakeholder workshops are held on the one hand, and the system is applied in the planning of a two-storey extension on the other hand. A company-independent construction standard offers the possibility of cooperation and bundling of capacities in order to be able to handle larger construction volumes in collaboration with several companies. Numerous further developments can take place on the basis of the system, which is under open license. The construction system will support planners and contractors from design to execution. In this context, open means publicly published and freely usable and modifiable for own use as long as the authorship and deviations are mentioned. The companies are provided with a system manual, which contains the system description and an application manual. This manual will facilitate the selection of the correct component cross-sections for the specific construction projects by means of all component and detail specifications. This presentation highlights the initial situation, the motivation, the approach, but especially the technical solution as well as the possibilities for the application. After an explanation of the objectives and working methods, the component and detail specifications are presented as work results and their application.

Keywords: redensification, SME, urban development, wood building system

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Kari Björn

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Introduction of games has expanded the application area of computer-aided learning tools to wide variety of age groups of learners. Serious games engage the learners into a real-world -type of simulation and potentially enrich the learning experience. Institutional background of a Bachelor’s level engineering program in Information and Communication Technology is introduced, with detailed focus on one of its majors, Health Technology. As part of a Customer Oriented Software Application thematic semester, one particular course of “eHealth Business and Solutions” is described and reflected in a gamified framework. Learning a consistent view into vast literature of business management, strategies, marketing and finance in a very limited time enforces selection of topics relevant to the industry. Health Technology is a novel and growing industry with a growing sector in consumer wearable devices and homecare applications. The business sector is attracting new entrepreneurs and impatient investor funds. From engineering education point of view the sector is driven by miniaturizing electronics, sensors and wireless applications. However, the market is highly consumer-driven and usability, safety and data integrity requirements are extremely high. When the same technology is used in analysis or treatment of patients, very strict regulatory measures are enforced. The paper introduces a course structure using gamification as a tool to learn the most essential in a new market: customer value proposition design, followed by a market entry game. Students analyze the existing market size and pricing structure of eHealth web-service market and enter the market as a steering group of their company, competing against the legacy players and with each other. The market is growing but has its rules of demand and supply balance. New products can be developed with an R&D-investment, and targeted to market with unique quality- and price-combinations. Product cost structure can be improved by investing to enhanced production capacity. Investments can be funded optionally by foreign capital. Students make management decisions and face the dynamics of the market competition in form of income statement and balance sheet after each decision cycle. The focus of the learning outcome is to understand customer value creation to be the source of cash flow. The benefit of gamification is to enrich the learning experience on structure and meaning of financial statements. The paper describes the gamification approach and discusses outcomes after two course implementations. Along the case description of learning challenges, some unexpected misconceptions are noted. Improvements of the game or the semi-gamified teaching pedagogy are discussed. The case description serves as an additional support to new game coordinator, as well as helps to improve the method. Overall, the gamified approach has helped to engage engineering student to business studies in an energizing way.

Keywords: engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning experience, learning outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Naima Mohammadi

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The present paper critically reports on the emergency of Iranian international students in a large public university in Italy. Although the most sizeable diaspora of Iranians dates back to the 1979 revolution, a huge wave of Iranian female students travelled abroad after the Iranian Green Movement (2009) due to the intensification of gender discrimination and Islamization. To explore the experience of Iranian female students at an Italian public university, two complementary methods were adopted: a focus group and individual interviews. Focus groups yield detailed collective conversations and provide researchers with an opportunity to observe the interaction between participants, rather than between participant and researcher, which generates data. Semi-structured interviews allow participants to share their stories in their own words and speak about personal experiences and opinions. Research participants were invited to participate through a public call in a Telegram group of Iranian students. Theoretical and purposive sampling was applied to select participants. All participants were assured that full anonymity would be ensured and they consented to take part in the research. A two-hour focus group was held in English with participants in the presence and some online. They were asked to share their motivations for studying in Italy and talk about their experiences both within and outside the university context. Each of these interviews lasted from 45 to 60 minutes and was mostly carried out online and in Farsi. The focus group consisted of 8 Iranian female post-graduate students. In analyzing the data a blended approach was adopted, with a combination of deductive and inductive coding. According to research findings, although 9/11 was the beginning of the West’s challenges against Muslims, the nuclear threats of Islamic regimes promoted the toughest international sanctions against Iranians as a nation across the world. Accordingly, carrying an Iranian identity contributes to social, political, and economic exclusion. Research findings show that geopolitical factors such as international sanctions and Islamophobia, and a lack of reciprocity in terms of recognition, have created a sense of stigmatization for veiled and unveiled Iranian female students who are the largest groups of ‘non-European Muslim international students’ enrolled in Italian universities. Participants addressed how their nationality has devalued their public image and negatively impacted their self-confidence and self-realization in academia. They highlighted the experience of an unwelcoming atmosphere by different groups of people and institutes, such as receiving marked students’ badges, rejected bank account requests, failed visa processes, secondary security screening selection, and hyper-visibility of veiled students. This study corroborates the need for institutions to pay attention to geopolitical factors and religious diversity in student recruitment and provide support mechanisms and access to basic rights. Accordingly, it is suggested that Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) have a social and moral responsibility towards the discrimination and both social and academic exclusion of Iranian students.

Keywords: Iranian diaspora, female students, recognition theory, inclusive university

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Miroslava Cuperlovic-Culf, Lipu Wang, Ketty Boyle, Nadine Makley, Ian Burton, Anissa Belkaid, Mohamed Touaibia, Marc E. Surrette

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Metabolic changes are one of the major factors in the development of a variety of diseases in various species. Metabolism of agricultural plants is altered the following infection with pathogens sometimes contributing to resistance. At the same time, pathogens use metabolites for infection and progression. In humans, metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development for example. Quantified metabolomics data combined with other omics or clinical data and analyzed using various unsupervised and supervised methods can lead to better diagnosis and prognosis. It can also provide information about resistance as well as contribute knowledge of compounds significant for disease progression or prevention. In this work, different methods for metabolomics quantification and analysis from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) measurements that are used for investigation of disease development in wheat and human cells will be presented. One-dimensional 1H NMR spectra are used extensively for metabolic profiling due to their high reliability, wide range of applicability, speed, trivial sample preparation and low cost. This presentation will describe a new method for metabolite quantification from NMR data that combines alignment of spectra of standards to sample spectra followed by multivariate linear regression optimization of spectra of assigned metabolites to samples’ spectra. Several different alignment methods were tested and multivariate linear regression result has been compared with other quantification methods. Quantified metabolomics data can be analyzed in the variety of ways and we will present different clustering methods used for phenotype determination, network analysis providing knowledge about the relationships between metabolites through metabolic network as well as biomarker selection providing novel markers. These analysis methods have been utilized for the investigation of fusarium head blight resistance in wheat cultivars as well as analysis of the effect of estrogen receptor and carbonic anhydrase activation and inhibition on breast cancer cell metabolism. Metabolic changes in spikelet’s of wheat cultivars FL62R1, Stettler, MuchMore and Sumai3 following fusarium graminearum infection were explored. Extensive 1D 1H and 2D NMR measurements provided information for detailed metabolite assignment and quantification leading to possible metabolic markers discriminating resistance level in wheat subtypes. Quantification data is compared to results obtained using other published methods. Fusarium infection induced metabolic changes in different wheat varieties are discussed in the context of metabolic network and resistance. Quantitative metabolomics has been used for the investigation of the effect of targeted enzyme inhibition in cancer. In this work, the effect of 17 β -estradiol and ferulic acid on metabolism of ER+ breast cancer cells has been compared to their effect on ER- control cells. The effect of the inhibitors of carbonic anhydrase on the observed metabolic changes resulting from ER activation has also been determined. Metabolic profiles were studied using 1D and 2D metabolomic NMR experiments, combined with the identification and quantification of metabolites, and the annotation of the results is provided in the context of biochemical pathways.

Keywords: metabolic biomarkers, metabolic network, metabolomics, multivariate linear regression, NMR quantification, quantified metabolomics, spectral alignment

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Authors: Asmat Nawaz, Ceylan Zafer, Ali K. Erdinc, Kaiying Wang, M. Nadeem Akram

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Hybrid halide Perovskites with the general formula ABX₃, where X = Cl, Br or I, are considered as an ideal candidates for the preparation of photovoltaic devices. The most commonly and successfully used hybrid halide perovskite for photovoltaic applications is CH₃NH₃PbI₃ and its analogue prepared from lead chloride, commonly symbolized as CH₃NH₃PbI₃_ₓClₓ. Some researcher groups are using lead free (Sn replaces Pb) and mixed halide perovskites for the fabrication of the devices. Both mesoporous and planar structures have been developed. By Comparing mesoporous structure in which the perovskite materials infiltrate into mesoporous metal oxide scaffold, the planar architecture is much simpler and easy for device fabrication. In a typical perovskite solar cell, a perovskite absorber layer is sandwiched between the hole and electron transport. Upon the irradiation, carriers are created in the absorber layer that can travel through hole and electron transport layers and the interface in between. We fabricated inverted planar heterojunction structure ITO/PEDOT/ Perovskite/PCBM/Al, based solar cell via two-step spin coating method. This is also called Sequential deposition method. A small amount of cheap additive H₂O was added into PbI₂/DMF to make a homogeneous solution. We prepared four different solution such as (W/O H₂O, 1% H₂O, 2% H₂O, 3% H₂O). After preparing, the whole night stirring at 60℃ is essential for the homogenous precursor solutions. We observed that the solution with 1% H₂O was much more homogenous at room temperature as compared to others. The solution with 3% H₂O was precipitated at once at room temperature. The four different films of PbI₂ were formed on PEDOT substrates by spin coating and after that immediately (before drying the PbI₂) the substrates were immersed in the methyl ammonium iodide solution (prepared in isopropanol) for the completion of the desired perovskite film. After getting desired films, rinse the substrates with isopropanol to remove the excess amount of methyl ammonium iodide and finally dried it on hot plate only for 1-2 minutes. In this study, we added H₂O in the PbI₂/DMF precursor solution. The concept of additive is widely used in the bulk- heterojunction solar cells to manipulate the surface morphology, leading to the enhancement of the photovoltaic performance. There are two most important parameters for the selection of additives. (a) Higher boiling point w.r.t host material (b) good interaction with the precursor materials. We observed that the morphology of the films was improved and we achieved a denser, uniform with less cavities and almost full surface coverage films but only using precursor solution having 1% H₂O. Therefore, we fabricated the complete perovskite solar cell by sequential deposition technique with precursor solution having 1% H₂O. We concluded that with the addition of additives in the precursor solutions one can easily be manipulate the morphology of the perovskite film. In the sequential deposition method, thickness of perovskite film is in µm and the charge diffusion length of PbI₂ is in nm. Therefore, by controlling the thickness using other deposition methods for the fabrication of solar cells, we can achieve the better efficiency.

Keywords: methylammonium lead iodide, perovskite solar cell, precursor composition, sequential deposition

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Authors: T. C. C. Soo, S. Bhassu

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Unlike the common presence of both innate and adaptive immunity in vertebrates, crustaceans, in particular, shrimps, have been discovered to possess only innate immunity. This further emphasizes the importance of innate immunity within shrimps in pathogenic resistance. Under the study of pathogenic immune challenge, different shrimp species actually exhibit varying degrees of immune resistance towards the same pathogen. Furthermore, even within the same shrimp species, different batches of challenged shrimps can have different strengths of immune defence. Several important pathways are activated within shrimps during pathogenic infection. One of them is JAK-STAT pathway that is activated during bacterial, viral and fungal infections by which STAT(Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription) gene is the core element of the pathway. Based on theory of Central Dogma, the genomic information is transmitted in the order of DNA, RNA and protein. This study is focused in uncovering the important evolutionary patterns present within the DNA (non-coding region) and RNA (coding region). The three shrimp species involved are Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Penaeus monodon and Litopenaeus vannamei which all possess commercial significance. The shrimp species were challenged with a famous penaeid shrimp virus called white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) which can cause serious lethality. Tissue samples were collected during time intervals of 0h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 36h and 48h. The DNA and RNA samples were then extracted using conventional kits from the hepatopancreas tissue samples. PCR technique together with designed STAT gene conserved primers were utilized for identification of the STAT coding sequences using RNA-converted cDNA samples and subsequent characterization using various bioinformatics approaches including Ramachandran plot, ProtParam and SWISS-MODEL. The varying levels of immune STAT gene activation for the three shrimp species during WSSV infection were confirmed using qRT-PCR technique. For one sample, three biological replicates with three technical replicates each were used for qRT-PCR. On the other hand, DNA samples were important for uncovering the structural variations within the genomic region of STAT gene which would greatly assist in understanding the STAT protein functional variations. The partially-overlapping primers technique was used for the genomic region sequencing. The evolutionary inferences and event predictions were then conducted through the Bayesian Inference method using all the acquired coding and non-coding sequences. This was supplemented by the construction of conventional phylogenetic trees using Maximum likelihood method. The results showed that adaptive evolution caused STAT gene sequence mutations between different shrimp species which led to evolutionary divergence event. Subsequently, the divergent sites were correlated to the differing expressions of STAT gene. Ultimately, this study assists in knowing the shrimp species innate immune variability and selection of disease resistant shrimps for breeding purpose. The deeper understanding of STAT gene evolution from the perspective of both purifying and adaptive approaches not only can provide better immunological insight among shrimp species, but also can be used as a good reference for immunological studies in humans or other model organisms.

Keywords: gene evolution, JAK-STAT pathway, immunology, STAT gene

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Authors: Hanna Mamo Ergando

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Climate change is already having a severe influence on agriculture, affecting crop yields, the nutritional content of main grains, and livestock productivity. Significant adaptation investments will be necessary to sustain existing yields and enhance production and food quality to fulfill demand. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) provides numerous potentials in this regard, combining a focus on enhancing agricultural output and incomes while also strengthening resilience and responding to climate change. To improve agriculture production and productivity, the Ethiopian government has adopted and implemented a series of strategies, including the recent agricultural cluster farming that is practiced as an effort to change, improve, and transform subsistence farming to modern, productive, market-oriented, and climate-smart approach through farmers production cluster. Besides, greater attention and focus have been given to wheat production and productivity by the government, and wheat is the major crop grown in cluster farming. Therefore, the objective of this assessment was to examine various opportunities and challenges farmers face in a cluster farming system. A qualitative research approach was used to generate primary and secondary data. Respondents were chosen using the purposeful sampling technique. Accordingly, experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute, and the Ethiopian Environment Protection Authority were interviewed. The assessment result revealed that farming in clusters is an economically viable technique for sustaining small, resource-limited, and socially disadvantaged farmers' agricultural businesses. The method assists farmers in consolidating their products and delivering them in bulk to save on transportation costs while increasing income. Smallholders' negotiating power has improved as a result of cluster membership, as has knowledge and information spillover. The key challenges, on the other hand, were identified as a lack of timely provision of modern inputs, insufficient access to credit services, conflict of interest in crop selection, and a lack of output market for agro-processing firms. Furthermore, farmers in the cluster farming approach grow wheat year after year without crop rotation or diversification techniques. Mono-cropping has disadvantages because it raises the likelihood of disease and insect outbreaks. This practice may result in long-term consequences, including soil degradation, reduced biodiversity, and economic risk for farmers. Therefore, the government must devote more resources to addressing the issue of environmental sustainability. Farmers' access to complementary services that promote production and marketing efficiencies through infrastructure and institutional services has to be improved. In general, the assessment begins with some hint that leads to a deeper study into the efficiency of the strategy implementation, upholding existing policy, and scaling up good practices in a sustainable and environmentally viable manner.

Keywords: cluster farming, smallholder farmers, wheat, challenges, opportunities

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Authors: B. R. Campomanes-Alvarez, P. Quiros, B. Fernandez

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Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) is a machine-based process of decoding and transcribing oral speech. A typical ASR system receives acoustic input from a speaker or an audio file, analyzes it using algorithms, and produces an output in the form of a text. Some speech recognition systems use Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to deal with the temporal variability of speech and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) to determine how well each state of each HMM fits a short window of frames of coefficients that represents the acoustic input. Another way to evaluate the fit is to use a feed-forward neural network that takes several frames of coefficients as input and produces posterior probabilities over HMM states as output. Deep neural networks (DNNs) that have many hidden layers and are trained using new methods have been shown to outperform GMMs on a variety of speech recognition systems. Acoustic models for state-of-the-art ASR systems are usually training on massive amounts of data. However, audio files with their corresponding transcriptions can be difficult to obtain, especially in the Spanish language. Hence, in the case of these low-resource scenarios, building an ASR model is considered as a complex task due to the lack of labeled data, resulting in an under-trained system. Semi-supervised learning approaches arise as necessary tasks given the high cost of transcribing audio data. The main goal of this proposal is to develop a procedure based on acoustic semi-supervised learning for Spanish ASR systems by using DNNs. This semi-supervised learning approach consists of: (a) Training a seed ASR model with a DNN using a set of audios and their respective transcriptions. A DNN with a one-hidden-layer network was initialized; increasing the number of hidden layers in training, to a five. A refinement, which consisted of the weight matrix plus bias term and a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) training were also performed. The objective function was the cross-entropy criterion. (b) Decoding/testing a set of unlabeled data with the obtained seed model. (c) Selecting a suitable subset of the validated data to retrain the seed model, thereby improving its performance on the target test set. To choose the most precise transcriptions, three confidence scores or metrics, regarding the lattice concept (based on the graph cost, the acoustic cost and a combination of both), was performed as selection technique. The performance of the ASR system will be calculated by means of the Word Error Rate (WER). The test dataset was renewed in order to extract the new transcriptions added to the training dataset. Some experiments were carried out in order to select the best ASR results. A comparison between a GMM-based model without retraining and the DNN proposed system was also made under the same conditions. Results showed that the semi-supervised ASR-model based on DNNs outperformed the GMM-model, in terms of WER, in all tested cases. The best result obtained an improvement of 6% relative WER. Hence, these promising results suggest that the proposed technique could be suitable for building ASR models in low-resource environments.

Keywords: automatic speech recognition, deep neural networks, machine learning, semi-supervised learning

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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