Search results for: MCM (mini chromosome manteinance) complex

Authors: Wisam Ismail, Sarah Hosgood, Michael Nicholson

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The research hypothesis is that early post-transplant allograft fibrosis will be linked to donor factors and that acute rejection and/or delayed graft function in the recipient will be independent risk factors for the development of fibrosis. This research hypothesis is to explore whether acute rejection/delay graft function has an effect on the renal transplant fibrosis within the first year post live donor kidney transplant between 1998 and 2009. Methods: The study has been designed to identify five time points of the renal transplant biopsies [0 (pre-transplant), 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months] for 300 live donor renal transplant patients over 12 years period between March 1997 – August 2009. Paraffin fixed slides were collected from Leicester General Hospital and Leicester Royal Infirmary. These were routinely sectioned at a thickness of 4 Micro millimetres for standardization. Conclusions: Fibrosis at 1 month after the transplant was found significantly associated with baseline fibrosis (p<0.001) and HTN in the transplant recipient (p<0.001). Dialysis after the transplant showed a weak association with fibrosis at 1 month (p=0.07). The negative coefficient for HTN (-0.05) suggests a reduction in fibrosis in the absence of HTN. Fibrosis at 1 month was significantly associated with fibrosis at baseline (p 0.01 and 95%CI 0.11 to 0.67). Fibrosis at 3, 6 or 12 months was not found to be associated with fibrosis at baseline (p=0.70. 0.65 and 0.50 respectively). The amount of fibrosis at 1 month is significantly associated with graft survival (p=0.01 and 95%CI 0.02 to 0.14). Rejection and severity of rejection were not found to be associated with fibrosis at 1 month. The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was significantly associated with graft survival (p=0.02) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.01). Both baseline fibrosis and graft survival were significant predictive factors. The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was not found to be significantly associated with rejection (p=0.64) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.01). The amount of fibrosis at 1 month was not found to be significantly associated with rejection severity (p=0.29) after adjusting for baseline fibrosis (p=0.04). Fibrosis at baseline and HTN in the recipient were found to be predictive factors of fibrosis at 1 month. (p 0.02, p <0.001 respectively). Age of the donor, their relation to the patient, the pre-op Creatinine, artery, kidney weight and warm time were not found to be significantly associated with fibrosis at 1 month. In this complex model baseline fibrosis, HTN in the recipient and cold time were found to be predictive factors of fibrosis at 1 month (p=0.01,<0.001 and 0.03 respectively). Donor age was found to be a predictive factor of fibrosis at 6 months. The above analysis was repeated for 3, 6 and 12 months. No associations were detected between fibrosis and any of the explanatory variables with the exception of the donor age which was found to be a predictive factor of fibrosis at 6 months.

Keywords: fibrosis, transplant, renal, rejection

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Authors: Alice Brites, Gerd Sparovek, Jean Paul Metzger, Ricardo Rodrigues

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The segregation between science and policy in decision making process hinders nature conservation efforts worldwide. Scientists have been criticized for not producing information that leads to effective solutions for environmental problems. In an attempt to bridge this gap between science and practice, we conducted a project aimed at supporting the implementation of the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) implementation in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. To do so, we conducted multiple open meetings with the stakeholders involved in this discussion. Throughout this process, we raised stakeholders' demands for scientific information and brought feedbacks about our findings. However, our main scientific advice was not taken into account during the NVPL implementation in SP. The NVPL has a mechanism that exempts landholders who converted native vegetation without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion from restoration requirements. We found out that there were no accurate spatialized data for native vegetation cover before the 1960s. Thus, the initial benchmark for the mechanism application should be the 1965 Brazilian Forest Act. Even so, SP kept the 1934 Brazilian Forest Act as the initial legal benchmark for the law application. This decision implies the use of a probabilistic native vegetation map that has uncertainty and subjectivity as its intrinsic characteristics, thus its use can lead to legal queries, corruption, and an unfair benefit application. But why this decision was made even after the scientific advice was vastly divulgated? We raised some possible reasons to explain it. First, the decision was made during a government transition, showing that circumstantial political events can overshadow scientific arguments. Second, the debate about the NVPL in SP was not pacified and powerful stakeholders could benefit from the confusion created by this decision. Finally, the native vegetation protection mechanism is a complex issue, with many technical aspects that can be hard to understand for a non-specialized courtroom, such as the one that made the final decision at SP. This example shows that science and decision-makers still have a long way ahead to improve their way to interact and that science needs to find its way to be heard above the political buzz.

Keywords: Brazil, forest act, science-based dialogue, science-policy interface

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Authors: Eric Lacoste

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Laboratory animals are currently widely used as a model of human pathologies in dermatology such as atopic dermatitis (AD). These models provide a better understanding of the pathophysiology of this complex and multifactorial disease, the discovery of potential new therapeutic targets and the testing of the efficacy of new therapeutics. However, confirmation of the correct development of AD is mainly based on histology from skin biopsies requiring invasive surgery or euthanasia of the animals, plus slicing and staining protocols. However, there are currently accessible imaging technologies such as Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT), which allows non-invasive visualization of the main histological structures of the skin (like stratum corneum, epidermis, and dermis) and assessment of the dynamics of the pathology or efficacy of new treatments. Briefly, female immunocompetent hairless mice (SKH1 strain) were sensitized and challenged topically on back and ears for about 4 weeks. Back skin and ears thickness were measured using calliper at 3 occasions per week in complement to a macroscopic evaluation of atopic dermatitis lesions on back: erythema, scaling and excoriations scoring. In addition, OCT was performed on the back and ears of animals. OCT allows a virtual in-depth section (tomography) of the imaged organ to be made using a laser, a camera and image processing software allowing fast, non-contact and non-denaturing acquisitions of the explored tissues. To perform the imaging sessions, the animals were anesthetized with isoflurane, placed on a support under the OCT for a total examination time of 5 to 10 minutes. The results show a good correlation of the OCT technique with classical HES histology for skin lesions structures such as hyperkeratosis, epidermal hyperplasia, and dermis thickness. This OCT imaging technique can, therefore, be used in live animals at different times for longitudinal evaluation by repeated measurements of lesions in the same animals, in addition to the classical histological evaluation. Furthermore, this original imaging technique speeds up research protocols, reduces the number of animals and refines the use of the laboratory animal.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, mouse model, oxzolone model, histology, imaging

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Authors: Jonghyuk Yoon, Jongil Yoon, Seong-Gyo Chung

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In many kinds of industries which usually need a large amount of power, an axial piston pump has been widely used as a main power source of a hydraulic system. The axial piston pump is a type of positive displacement pump that has several pistons in a circular array within a cylinder block. As the cylinder block and pistons start to rotate, since the exposed ends of the pistons are constrained to follow the surface of the swashed plate, the pistons are driven to reciprocate axially and then a hydraulic power is produced. In the present study, a numerical simulation which has three dimensional full model of the axial piston pump was carried out using a commercial CFD code (Ansys CFX 14.5). In order to take into consideration motion of compression and extension by the reciprocating pistons, the moving boundary conditions were applied as a function of the rotation angle to that region. In addition, this pump using hydraulic oil as working fluid is intentionally designed as a small amount of oil leaks out in order to lubricate moving parts. Since leakage could directly affect the pump efficiency, evaluation of effect of oil-leakage is very important. In order to predict the effect of the oil leakage on the pump efficiency, we considered the leakage between piston-shoe and swash-plate by modeling cylindrical shaped-feature at the end of the cylinder. In order to validate the numerical method used in this study, the numerical results of the flow rate at the discharge port are compared with the experimental data, and good agreement between them was shown. Using the validated numerical method, the effect of the discharge pressure was also investigated. The result of the present study can be useful information of small axial piston pump used in many different manufacturing industries. Acknowledgement: This research was financially supported by the “Next-generation construction machinery component specialization complex development program” through the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) and Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology (KIAT).

Keywords: axial piston pump, CFD, discharge pressure, hydraulic system, moving boundary condition, oil leaks

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Authors: Fatih Frank Alparslan

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The aviation industry is at a crucial turning point due to modern technologies, environmental concerns, and changing ways of transporting people and goods globally. The paper examines these challenges and opportunities comprehensively. It emphasizes the role of innovative management and advanced technology in shaping the future of air travel. This study begins with an overview of the current state of the aviation industry, identifying key areas where innovation and technology could be highly beneficial. It explores the latest advancements in airplane design, propulsion, and materials. These technological advancements are shown to enhance aircraft performance and environmental sustainability. The paper also discusses the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in improving air traffic control, enhancing safety, and making flight operations more efficient. The management of these technologies is critically important. Therefore, the research delves into necessary changes in organization, culture, and operations to support innovation. It proposes a management approach that aligns with these modern technologies, underlining the importance of forward-thinking leaders who collaborate across disciplines and embrace innovative ideas. The paper addresses challenges in adopting these innovations, such as regulatory barriers, the need for industry-wide standards, and the impact of technological changes on jobs and society. It recommends that governments, aviation businesses, and educational institutions collaborate to address these challenges effectively, paving the way for a more innovative and eco-friendly aviation industry. In conclusion, the paper argues that the future of aviation relies on integrating new management practices with innovative technologies. It urges a collective effort to push beyond current capabilities, envisioning an aviation industry that is safer, more efficient, and environmentally responsible. By adopting a broad approach, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion about resolving the complex issues facing today's aviation sector, offering insights and guidance to prepare for future advancements.

Keywords: aviation innovation, technology integration, environmental sustainability, management strategies, multidisciplinary approach

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Selim M. Khan

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Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

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Authors: Islam Nowisser, Noha Farag, Mohamed El Azizi

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Helicobacter pylori is a highly important human pathogen which inhabits about 50% of the population worldwide. Infection with this bacteria is very hard to treat, with high probability of recurrence. H. pylori causes severe gastric diseases, including peptic ulcer, gastritis, and gastric cancer, which has been linked to chronic inflammation. The infection has been reported to be associated with high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, especially IL-1β and TNF-α. The aim of the current study is to investigate the molecular mechanisms by which H. pylori activates NLRP3 inflammasome and its contribution to Il-1 β production in an innate cellular model. H. pylori PMSS1 and G27 standard strains, as well as the PMSS1 isogenic mutant strain PMSS1ΔVacA and G27ΔVacA, G27ΔCagA in addition to clinical isolates obtained from biopsy samples from the antrum and corpus mucosa of chronic gastritis patients, were used to establish infection in RAW-264.7 macrophages. The production levels of TNF-α and IL-1β was assessed using ELISA. Since expression of these cytokines is often regulated by the transcription factor complex, nuclear factor-kB (NF-kB), the activation of NF-κB in H. pylori infected cells was also evaluated by luciferase assay. Genomic DNA was extracted from bacterial cultures of H. pylori clinical isolates as well as the standard strains and their corresponding mutants, where they were evaluated for the cagA pathogenicity island and vacA expression. The correlation between these findings and expression of the cagA Pathogenicity Island and vacA in the bacteria was also investigated. The results showed IL-1β, and TNF-α production significantly increased in raw macrophages following H. pylori infection. The cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains induced significant production of IL-1β compared to cagA- and vacA- strains. The activation pattern of NF-κB was correlated in the isolates to their cagA and vacA expression profiles. A similar finding could not be confirmed for TNF-α production. Our study shows the ability of H. pylori to activate NF-kB and induce significant IL-1β production as a possible mechanism for the augmented inflammatory response seen in subjects infected with cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains that would lead to the progression to more severe form of the disease.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, IL-1β, inflammatory cytokines, nuclear factor KB, TNF-α

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Authors: S. Probine

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The visual arts have been proven to be a central means through which young children can communicate their ideas, reflect on experience, and construct new knowledge. Despite this, perceptions of, and the degree to which the visual arts are valued within education, vary widely within political, educational, community and family contexts. These differing perceptions informed my doctoral research project, which explored the contextual factors that affect how young children come to value and use the visual arts in their lives and learning. The qualitative methodology of narrative inquiry with inclusion of arts-based methods was most appropriate for this inquiry. Using a sociocultural framework, the stories collected were analysed through the sociocultural theories of Lev Vygotsky as well as the work of Urie Bronfenbrenner, together with postmodern theories about identity formation. The use of arts-based methods such as teacher’s reflective art journals and the collection of images by child participants and their parent/caregivers allowed the research participants to have a significant role in the research. Three early childhood settings at which the visual arts were deeply valued as a meaning-making device in children’s learning, were purposively selected to be involved in the research. At each setting, the study found a unique and complex web of influences and interconnections, which shaped how children utilised the visual arts to mediate their thinking. Although the teachers' practices at all three centres were influenced by sociocultural theories, each settings' interpretations of these theories were unique and resulted in innovative interpretations of the role of the teacher in supporting visual arts learning. These practices had a significant impact on children’s experiences of the visual arts. For many of the children involved in this study, visual art was the primary means through which they learned. The children in this study used visual art to represent their experiences, relationships, to explore working theories, their interests (including those related to popular culture), to make sense of their own and other cultures, and to enrich their imaginative play. This research demonstrates that teachers have fundamental roles in fostering and disseminating the importance of the visual arts within their educational communities.

Keywords: arts-based methods, early childhood education, teacher's visual arts pedagogies, visual arts

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Authors: Lydia Booney Jyrwa, Rabindra Nath Bhuyan

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Chocolate Mahseer (Neolissochilus hexagonolepis) is one of the Mahseer species inhabiting the North-eastern region of India and is a native species to the state of Meghalaya since it can adapt and grow well under the agro climatic conditions of the region. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The fish is considered as one of the endangered species of the Mahseer group, which is having tremendous scope for culture, sports and tourism. But non-availability of quality seed is a hindrance for the culture of this fish. Thus induced breeding of the fish by hormonal administration with pituitary gland and synthetic hormones is the only reliable method to procure the pure seed of the fish. Chocolate Mahseer was successfully bred at the Hatchery Complex, St. Anthony’s College, Shillong, Meghalaya by using pituitary extract and synthetic hormone viz. ovaprim, ovatide and gonopro-FH. The dose standardized is @ 4mg/kg body weight to both male and female as 1st dose and @ 7.9 mg/kg body weight only to female as 2nd dose for pituitary extract and single dose @ 0.8 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of both ovaprim and ovatide, while a single dose @ 0.9 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of gonopro-FH. The doses are standardized after a series of trial and error experiment performed. The fecundity of the fish was 3500 eggs/ kg body weight. The final hatching percentage achieved was 60%. The survival rate of hatchling was 50% up to fry stage. The use of synthetic hormone and positive response of the fish to the hormone will go in long way for production of quality seed of the fish which in turn help in culture of the species as the fish can be a very good candidate species for the culture in the state. This study will also help in the ranching of the fish in the natural habitat leading to conservation of the species. However, the study should be continued further for the large scale production of seeds.

Keywords: chocolate mahseer, induced breeding, pituitary extract, synthetic hormone

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Authors: Keith D. Nare, Mohau J. Phiri, James Carson, Chris D. Woolard, Shanganyane P. Hlangothi

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In an energy-intensive world, minimizing energy consumption is paramount to cost saving and reducing the carbon footprint. Improving mixture procedures utilizing warm mix additive Fischer-Tropsch (FT) wax in ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and modified bitumen highlights a greener and sustainable approach to modified bitumen. In this study, the impact of FT wax on optimized EVA/waste crumb rubber modified bitumen is assayed with a maximum loading of 2.5%. The rationale of the FT wax loading is to maintain the original maximum loading of EVA in the optimized mixture. The phase change abilities of FT wax enable EVA co-crystallization with the support of the elastomeric backbone of crumb rubber. Less than 1% loading of FT wax worked in the EVA/crumb rubber modified bitumen energy-sustainability nexus. Response surface methodology approach to the mixture design is implemented amongst the different loadings of FT wax, EVA for a consistent amount of crumb rubber and bitumen. Rheological parameters (complex shear modulus, phase angle and rutting parameter) were the factors used as performance indicators of the different optimized mixtures. The low temperature chemistry of the optimized mixtures is analyzed using elementary beam theory and the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. Master curves and black space diagrams are developed and used to predict age-induced cracking of the different long term aged mixtures. Modified binder rheology reveals that the strain response is not linear and that there is substantial re-arrangement of polymer chains as stress is increased, this is based on the age state of the mixture and the FT wax and EVA loadings. Dominance of individual effects is evident over effects of synergy in co-interaction of EVA and FT wax. All-inclusive FT wax and EVA formulations were best optimized in mixture 4 with mixture 7 reflecting increase in ease of workability. Findings show that interaction chemistry of bitumen, crumb rubber EVA, and FT wax is first and second order in all cases involving individual contributions and co-interaction amongst the components of the mixture.

Keywords: bitumen, crumb rubber, ethylene vinyl acetate, FT wax

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Authors: Violina Angelova, Galina Pevicharova

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A comparative research had been carried out to allow us to determine the quantities and the centers of accumulation of Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd in the vegetative and reproductive organs of the sweet potatoes and to ascertain the possibilities for growing them on soils, polluted with heavy metals. The experiments were performed on agricultural fields contaminated by the (1) Non-Ferrous-Metal Works near Plovdiv, (2) Lead and Zinc Complex near Kardjali and (3) a copper smelter near Pirdop, Bulgaria. The soils used in this experiment were characterized by acid, neutral and slightly alkaline reaction, loamy texture and a moderate content of organic matter. The total content of Zn, Pb, and Cd was high and exceeded the limit value in agriculture soils. Sweet potatoes were in a 2-year rotation scheme on three blocks in the experimental field. On reaching commercial ripeness the sweet potatoes were gathered and the contents of heavy metals in their different parts – root, tuber (peel and core), leaves and stems, were determined after microwave mineralization. The quantitative measurements were carried out with inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. The contamination of the sweet potatoes was due mainly to the presence of heavy metals in the soil, which entered the plants through their root system, as well as by diffusion through the peel. Pb, Cu, Zn, and Cd were selectively accumulated in the underground parts of the sweet potatoes, and most of all in the root system and the peel. Heavy metals have an impact on the development and productivity of the sweet potatoes. The high anthropogenic contamination leads to an increased assimilation of heavy metals which reduces the yield and the quality of the production of sweet potatoes, as well as leads to decrease of the absolute dry substance and the quantity of sugars in sweet potatoes. Sweet potatoes could be grown on soils, which are light to medium polluted with lead, zinc, and cadmium, as they do not accumulate these elements. On heavily polluted soils, however, (Pb – 1504 mg/kg, Zn – 3322 mg/kg, Cd – 47 mg/kg) the growing of sweet potatoes is not allowed, as the accumulation of Pb and Cd in the core of the potatoes exceeds the Maximum Acceptable Concentration. Acknowledgment: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support by the Bulgarian National Science Fund (Project DFNI DH04/9).

Keywords: heavy metals, polluted soils, sweet potatoes, uptake

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Authors: Retang A. Mokua, Julia Glenday, Jacobus M. Nel

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Understanding hydrological processes in mountain headwater catchments, such as the Jonkershoek Valley, is crucial for improving the predictive capability of hydrologic modeling in the Cape Fold Mountain region of South Africa, incorporating the influence of the Table Mountain Group fractured rock aquifers. Determining the contributions of various possible surface and subsurface flow pathways in such catchments has been a challenge due to the complex nature of the fractured rock geology, low ionic concentrations, high rainfall, and streamflow variability. The study aimed to describe the mechanisms of streamflow generation during two seasons (dry and wet). In this study, stable isotopes of water (18O and 2H), hydrochemical tracer electrical conductivity (EC), hydrometric data were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation in flow pathways and geographic sources of stream water. Stream water, groundwater, two shallow piezometers, and spring samples were routinely sampled at two adjacent headwater sub-catchments and analyzed for isotopic ratios during baseflow conditions between January 2018 and January 2019. From these results, no significance (p > 0.05) in seasonal variations in isotopic ratios were observed, the stream isotope signatures were consistent throughout the study period. However, significant seasonal and spatial variations in the EC were evident (p < 0.05). The findings suggest that, in the dry season, baseflow generation mechanisms driven by groundwater and interflow as discharge from perennial springs in these catchments are the primary contributors. The wet season flows were attributed to interflow and perennial and ephemeral springs. Furthermore, the observed seasonal variations in EC were indicative of a greater proportion of sub-surface water inputs. With these results, a conceptual model of streamflow generation processes for the two seasons was constructed.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, Jonkershoek valley, stable isotopes, table mountain group

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Authors: Niloofar Zebarjad

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This research aims at finding a tool to provide basketball players with real-time audio feedback on their shooting form in free throw shots. Free throws played a pivotal role in taking the lead in fierce competitions. The major problem in performing an accurate free throw seems to be improper training. Since the arm movement during the free throw shot is complex, the coach or the athlete might miss the movement details during practice. Hence, there is a necessity to create a system that measures arm movements' critical characteristics and control for improper kinematics. The proposed setup in this study quantifies arm kinematics and provides real-time feedback as an audio signal consisting of a gyroscope sensor. Spatial shoulder angle data are transmitted in a mobile application in real-time and can be saved and processed for statistical and analysis purposes. The proposed system is easy to use, inexpensive, portable, and real-time applicable. Objectives: This research aims to modify and control the free throw using audio feedback and determine if and to what extent the new setup reduces errors in arm formations during throws and finally assesses the successful throw rate. Methods: One group of elite basketball athletes and two novice athletes (control and study group) participated in this study. Each group contains 5 participants being studied in three separate sessions over a week. Results: Empirical results showed enhancements in the free throw shooting style, shot pocket (SP), and locked position (LP). The mean values of shoulder angle were controlled on 25° and 45° for SP and LP, respectively, recommended by valid FIBA references. Conclusion: Throughout the experiments, the system helped correct and control the shoulder angles toward the targeted pattern of shot pocket (SP) and locked position (LP). According to the desired results for arm motion, adding another sensor to measure and control the elbow angle is recommended.

Keywords: audio-feedback, basketball, free-throw, locked-position, motor-control, shot-pocket

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Authors: Maria Giovanna Lupo, Marina Camera, Marcello Rattazzi, Nicola Ferri

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A complex interplay among chronic kidney disease, lipid metabolism and aortic calcification has been recognized starting from results of many clinical and experimental studies. Here we investigated the influence of kidney function on PCSK9 levels, both in uremic rats and in clinical observation study, and its potential direct action on cultured smooth muscle cells (SMCs) calcification. In a cohort of 594 subjects enrolled in a single centre, observational, cross-sectional and longitudinal study, a negative association between GFR and plasma PCSK9 was found. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), as co-morbidity, further increased PCSK9 plasma levels. Diet-induced uremic condition in rats, induced aortic calcification and increased total cholesterol and PCSK9 levels in plasma, livers and kidneys. Immunohistochemical analysis confirmed PCSK9 expression in aortic SMCs. SMCs overexpressing PCSK9 (SMCsPCSK9), cultured for 7-days in a pro-calcification environment (2.0mM or 2.4mM inorganic phosphate, Pi) showed a significantly higher extracellular calcium (Ca2+) deposition compared to mocked SMCs. Under the same experimental conditions, the addition of exogenous recombinant PCSK9 did not increase the extracellular calcification of SMCs. By flow cytometry analysis we showed that SMCsPCSK9, in response to 2.4mM Pi, released higher number of extracellular vesicles (EVs) positive for three tetraspanin molecules, such as CD63, CD9, and CD81. EVs derived from SMCsPCSK9 tended to be more enriched in calcium and alkaline phosphatase (ALPL), compared to EVs from mocks SMCs. In conclusion, our study reveals a direct role of PCSK9 on vascular calcification induced by higher inorganic phosphate levels associated to CKD condition. This effect appears to be mediated by a positive effect of endogenous PCSK9 on the release of EVs containing Ca2+ and ALP, which facilitate the deposition inorganic calcium phosphate crystals.

Keywords: PCSK9, calcification, extracellular vesicles, chronic kidney disease

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Authors: Janneth Gonzalez, Andres Pinzon Velasco, Maria Angarita, Nicolas Mendoza

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Astrocytes play an important role in various processes in the brain, including pathological conditions such as neurodegenerative diseases. Recent studies have shown that the increase in saturated fatty acids such as palmitic acid (PA) triggers pro-inflammatory pathways in the brain. The use of synthetic neurosteroids such as tibolone has demonstrated neuro-protective mechanisms. However, there are few studies on the neuro-protective mechanisms of tibolone, especially at the systemic (omic) level. In this study, we performed the integration of multi-omic data (transcriptome and proteome) into a human astrocyte genomic scale metabolic model to study the astrocytic response during palmitate treatment. We evaluated metabolic fluxes in three scenarios (healthy, induced inflammation by PA, and tibolone treatment under PA inflammation). We also use control theory to identify those reactions that control the astrocytic system. Our results suggest that PA generates a modulation of central and secondary metabolism, showing a change in energy source use through inhibition of folate cycle and fatty acid β-oxidation and upregulation of ketone bodies formation.We found 25 metabolic switches under PA-mediated cellular regulation, 9 of which were critical only in the inflammatory scenario but not in the protective tibolone one. Within these reactions, inhibitory, total, and directional coupling profiles were key findings, playing a fundamental role in the (de)regulation in metabolic pathways that increase neurotoxicity and represent potential treatment targets. Finally, this study framework facilitates the understanding of metabolic regulation strategies, andit can be used for in silico exploring the mechanisms of astrocytic cell regulation, directing a more complex future experimental work in neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: astrocytes, data integration, palmitic acid, computational model, multi-omics, control theory

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Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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Authors: Miroslav Dumbrovsky

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The paper deals with impacts of climate change with the main emphasis on land degradation, agriculture and forestry management in the landscape. Land degradation, due to adverse effect of farmers activities, as a result of inappropriate conventional technologies, was a major issue in the Czech Republic during the 20th century and will remain for solving in the 21st century. The importance of land degradation is very high because of its impact on crop productivity and many other adverse effects. Land degradation through soil degradation is causing losses on crop productivity and quality of the environment, through decreasing quality of soil and water (especially water resources). Negative effects of conventional farming practices are increased water erosion, as well as crusting and compaction of the topsoil and subsoil. Soil erosion caused by water destructs the soil’s structure, reduces crop productivity due to deterioration in soil physical and chemical properties such as infiltration rate, water-holding capacity, loss of nutrients needed for crop production, and loss of soil carbon. Water erosion occurs on fields with row crops (maize, sunflower), especially during the rainfall period from April to October. Recently there is a serious problem of greatly expanded production of biofuels and bioenergy from field crops. The result is accelerated soil degradation. The damages (on and off- site) are greater than the benefits. An effective soil conservation requires an appropriate complex system of measures in the landscape. They are also important to continue to develop new sophisticated methods and technologies for decreasing land degradation. The system of soil conservation solving land degradation depend on the ability and the willingness of land users to apply them. When we talk about land degradation, it is not just a technical issue but also an economic and political issue. From a technical point of view, we have already made many positive steps, but for successful solving the problem of land degradation is necessary to develop suitable economic and political tools to increase the willingness and ability of land users to adopt conservation measures.

Keywords: land degradation, soil erosion, soil conservation, climate change

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Authors: Baljit Soroya

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Transnational communities are as a consequence of greater mobility of people, globalization and digitization have had a major impact on international relations and diasporas in the context of external conflicts. To a significant extent conflicts are becoming deterritorialised and informed by both internal (state politics) and external (foreign policy) players such as in Iraq and Syria leading to forced migration of unprecedented levels within the last two decades. The situation of forced migrants has, it is suggested, worsened as a consequence of the neo-liberal policies and requirements of organizations such as the European Bank. A case example of this being that of Greece, and the exacerbation of insecurity for Greek nationals and the demonization of refugees seeking sanctuary. This has been as a consequence, in part, of the neoliberal dogma of the European Bank. The article analyses the complex intersection of the real and perceived threats of international terrorism and the manner in which UK migration policy and Practice is unfolding. The policy and practice developments are explored in the context of the shift in politics in both the UK and wider Europe to the far right and the drift of main stream political parties to the right. In many cases, the mainstream political groupings, have co-opted the fears as presented by far right organization for political their own political gains, such as in the UK and France In its analysis it will be argued that, whilst international terrorism is an issue of concern, however in the context of the UK it is not of the same scale as the effects of climate change or indeed domestic violence. Given that, the question has to be asked why the threat of international terrorism is having such an impact on UK migration policy and practice and, specifically refugees. Furthermore, it is argued that this policy and practice are being formulated within a narrative that portrays migrants as the problem both in relation to terrorism and the disenfranchisement of ‘ordinary white communities’. The intersectionality of social, economic inequalities, fear of international terrorism, increase in conflicts and the political climate have contributed to a lack of trust of political establishments that have in turn sought to impress the public with their anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy agendas. The article ends by suggesting that whilst politics and political affiliations have become fractured there are nevertheless spaces for collective action, particularly in relation to issues of refugees.

Keywords: international terrorism, migration policy, conflict, media, community, politics

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Authors: Lou J. Pino, Mark Campbell, Matthew J. Kennedy, Ashleigh C. Kennedy

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A concussion is complex and nuanced, with cognitive rest being a key component of recovery. Cognitive overexertion during rehabilitation from a concussion is associated with delayed recovery. However, daily living imposes cognitive demands that may be unavoidable and difficult to quantify. Therefore, a portable tool capable of alerting patients before cognitive overexertion occurs could allow patients to maintain their quality of life while preventing symptoms and recovery setbacks. EEG allows for a sensitive measure of cognitive exertion. Clinical 32-lead EEG headsets are not practical for day-to-day concussion rehabilitation management. However, there are now commercially available and affordable portable EEG headsets. Thus, these headsets can potentially be used to continuously monitor cognitive exertion during mental tasks to alert the wearer of overexertion, with the aim of preventing the occurrence of symptoms to speed recovery times. The objective of this study was to test an algorithm for predicting cognitive exertion from EEG data collected from a portable headset. EEG data were acquired from 10 participants (5 males, 5 females). Each participant wore a portable 4 channel EEG headband while completing 10 tasks: rest (eyes closed), rest (eyes open), three levels of the increasing difficulty of logic puzzles, three levels of increasing difficulty in multiplication questions, rest (eyes open), and rest (eyes closed). After each task, the participant was asked to report their perceived level of cognitive exertion using the NASA Task Load Index (TLX). Each participant then completed a second session on a different day. A customized machine learning model was created using data from the first session. The performance of each model was then tested using data from the second session. The mean correlation coefficient between TLX scores and predicted cognitive exertion was 0.75 ± 0.16. The results support the efficacy of the algorithm for predicting cognitive exertion. This demonstrates that the algorithms developed in this study used with portable EEG devices have the potential to aid in the concussion recovery process by monitoring and warning patients of cognitive overexertion. Preventing cognitive overexertion during recovery may reduce the number of symptoms a patient experiences and may help speed the recovery process.

Keywords: cognitive activity, EEG, machine learning, personalized recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Kyra Kannen, Sonja D. Roelen, Sebastian Schnieder, Jarek Krajewski, Steffen Holsteg, André Karger, Johanna Askeridis, Celina Slawik, Philip Mildner, Jens Piesk, Ruslan David, Holger Kürten, Benjamin Oster, Robert Malzan, Mike Ludemann

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Virtual Reality (VR) is increasingly recognized for its potential in transforming mental disorder treatment, offering advantages such as cost-effectiveness, time efficiency, accessibility, reduced stigma, and scalability. While the application of VR in the context of anxiety disorders has been extensively evaluated and demonstrated to be effective, the utilization of VR as a therapeutic treatment for depression remains under-investigated. Our goal is to pioneer immersive VR therapy modules for treating major depression, alongside a web-based system for home use. We develop a modular digital therapy platform grounded in psychodynamic therapy interventions which addresses stress reduction, exploration of social situations and relationship support, social skill training, avoidance behavior analysis, and psychoeducation. In addition, an automated depression monitoring system, based on acoustic voice analysis, is implemented in the form of a speech-based diary to track the affective state of the user and depression severity. The use of immersive VR facilitates patient immersion into complex and realistic interpersonal interactions with high emotional engagement, which may contribute to positive treatment acceptance and satisfaction. In a proof-of-concept study, 45 depressed patients were assigned to VR or web-platform modules, evaluating user experience, usability and additional metrics including depression severity, mindfulness, interpersonal problems, and treatment satisfaction. The findings provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and user-friendliness of VR and web modules for depression therapy and contribute to the refinement of more tailored digital interventions to improve mental health.

Keywords: virtual reality therapy, digital health, depression, psychotherapy

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Authors: Pradyumna R., Sridhar S., A. Satyanarayana, Alok S. Chauhan, Baig M. A. H.

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Modern turbine engines for aerospace applications need precision investment cast components such as integrally cast rotors and stators, for their hot end turbine stages. Traditionally, these turbines are used as starter engines. In recent times, such engines are also used for strategic missile applications. The rotor/stator castings consist of a central hub (shrouded in some designs) over which a number of aerofoil shaped blades are located. Since these components cannot be machined, investment casting is the only available route for manufacture and hence stringent dimensional aerospace quality has to be in-built in the casting process itself. In the process of investment casting, pattern generation by injection of wax into dedicated dies/moulds is the first critical step. Traditional approach deals in producing individual blades with hub/shroud features through wax injection and assembly of a set of such injected patterns onto a dedicated and precisely manufactured fixture to wax-weld and generate an integral wax pattern, a process known as the ‘segmental approach’. It is possible to design a single-injection die with retractable metallic inserts in the case of untwisted blades of stator patterns without the shroud. Such an approach is also possible for twisted blades of rotors with highly complex design of inter-blade inserts and retraction mechanisms. DMRL has for long established methods and procedures for the above to successfully supply precision castings for various defence related projects. In recent times, urea based soluble insert approach has also been successfully applied to overcome the need to design and manufacture a precision assembly fixture, leading to substantial reduction in component development times. Present paper deals in length various approaches tried and established at DMRL to generate precision wax patterns for aerospace quality turbine rotors and stators. In addition to this, the importance of simulation in solving issues related to wax injection is also touched upon.

Keywords: die/mold and fixtures, integral rotor/stator, investment casting, wax patterns, simulation

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Authors: Jiri Beranovsky, Jaroslav Knapek, Tomas Kralik, Kamila Vavrova

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The paper deals with the results of research focused on the complex aspects of the use of intentionally grown biomass on agricultural land for the production of solid biofuels as an alternative for individual household heating. . The study primarily deals with the analysis of CO2 emissions of the logistics cycle of biomass for the production of energy pellets. Growing, harvesting, transport and storage are evaluated in the pellet production cycle. The aim is also to take into account the consumption profile during the year in terms of heating of common family houses, which are typical end-market segment for these fuels. It is assumed that in family houses, bio-pellets are able to substitute typical fossil fuels, such as brown coal and old wood burning heating devices and also electric boilers. One of the competing technology with the pellets are heat pumps. The results show the CO2 emissions related with considered fuels and technologies for their utilization. Comparative analysis is aimed biopellets from intentionally grown biomass, brown coal, natural gas and electricity used in electric boilers and heat pumps. Analysis combines CO2 emissions related with individual fuels utilization with costs of these fuels utilization. Cost of biopellets from intentionally grown biomass is derived from the economic models of individual energy crop plantations. At the same time, the restrictions imposed by EU legislation on Ecodesign's fuel and combustion equipment requirements and NOx emissions are discussed. Preliminary results of analyzes show that to achieve the competitiveness of pellets produced from specifically grown biomass, it would be necessary to either significantly ecological tax on coal (from about 0.3 to 3-3.5 EUR/GJ), or to multiply the agricultural subsidy per area. In addition to the Czech Republic, the results are also relevant for other countries, such as Bulgaria and Poland, which also have a high proportion of solid fuels for household heating.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, heating costs, energy crop, pellets, brown coal, heat pumps, economical evaluation

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Authors: Shalinawati Ramli, Khairani Omar, Nurul Azmawati Mohamed, Zarini Ismail, Nur Syahrina Rahim, Nurul Hayati Chamhuri

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Medical doctors’ work to prevent, diagnose, treat diseases, disorders, and injuries as well as prescribing medication. Many people are attracted to this profession because it gives them the opportunity to help others. Doctors’ improve quality of life by providing advice, healing physical ailments and performing complex surgeries. Medicine is a profession in which dedication to the wellbeing of others is of paramount importance. Balancing the requirements of work and personal life can be a struggle as the demand of work as a doctors’ is great. Perception and expectation of medical students regarding the lifestyle of doctors’ is important to ensure that they had made the right career choice. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the perception of pre-clinical students regarding doctors’ lifestyle. This study is a cross-sectional study involving all third-year pre-clinical medical students at University Sains Islam Malaysia. A total of 81 students participated in this study. Participants were given a set of questionnaire consisting of demographic data, open-ended questions on their perception on doctors’ lifestyle of working environment, salary expectation and family life. Thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The participants comprised 69% female and their age range was between 20-21 years old. Majority of them were from middle-income families. Majority of the students perceived that the doctors’ lifestyle would be busy (72%). Approximately 30% of them expected that the time schedule will be unpredictable, 21% mentioned that sacrifice is required and 16% perceived it as a tiring job. Other themes emerged were ‘requiring high commitment’ (6%), challenging (7%) and risky (4%). With regards to salary expectation, 48% expected reasonable salary, 33% high salary and 12% described it as 'not worth compared to the workload'. Majority of them perceived that their family life will be restricted (62%) and time management is important (33%). Only 15% mentioned that family members have to sacrifice and spousal understanding is important (7%). About 10% of them perceived that their family will not be affected by their profession. Majority of the medical students perceived a busy doctors’ lifestyle, reasonable salary and restricted family life. However, there was a significant proportion of them who required counselling for better preparation of their future lifestyle.

Keywords: doctors lifestyle, pre-clinical students, perception, understanding

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Raed KOUTA, José-Alcebiades-Ernesto HLUNGUANE, Eric Châtele

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The search for and exploitation of new fossil energy resources is taking place in the context of the gradual depletion of existing deposits. Despite the adoption of international targets to combat global warming, the demand for fuels continues to grow, contradicting the movement towards an energy-efficient society. The increase in the share of offshore in global hydrocarbon production tends to compensate for the depletion of terrestrial reserves, thus constituting a major challenge for the players in the sector. Through the economic potential it represents, and the energy independence it provides, offshore exploitation is also a challenge for States such as Mozambique, which have large maritime areas and whose environmental wealth must be considered. The exploitation of new reserves on economically viable terms depends on available technologies. The development of deep and ultra-deep offshore requires significant research and development efforts. Progress has also been made in managing the multiple risks inherent in this activity. Our study proposes a reliability approach to develop products and processes designed to live at sea. Indeed, the context of an offshore platform requires highly reliable solutions to overcome the difficulties of access to the system for regular maintenance and quick repairs and which must resist deterioration and degradation processes. One of the characteristics of failures that we consider is the actual conditions of use that are considered 'extreme.' These conditions depend on time and the interactions between the different causes. These are the two factors that give the degradation process its dynamic character, hence the need to develop dynamic reliability models. Our work highlights mathematical models that can explicitly manage interactions between components and process variables. These models are accompanied by numerical resolution methods that help to structure a dynamic reliability approach in a physical and probabilistic context. The application developed makes it possible to evaluate the reliability, availability, and maintainability of a floating storage and unloading platform for liquefied natural gas production.

Keywords: dynamic reliability, offshore plateform, stochastic process, uncertainties

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Authors: Ola Jon Mork, Lars Andre Giske, Emil Bjørlykhaug

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Stabilization of critical processes in order to have the right quality of the products, more efficient production and smoother flow is a key issue in lean production. This paper presents how simulation of key welding processes can stabilize complicated welding processes in small scale production, and how simulation can impact the entire production concept seen from the perspective of lean production. First, a field study was made to learn the production processes in the factory, and subsequently the field study was transformed into a value stream map to get insight into each operation, the quality issues, operation times, lead times and flow of materials. Valuable practical knowledge of how the welding operations were done by operators, appropriate tools and jigs, and type of robots that could be used, was collected. All available information was then implemented into a simulation environment for further elaboration and development. Three researchers, the management of the company and skilled operators at the work floor where working on the project over a period of eight months, and a detailed description of the process was made by the researchers. The simulation showed that simulation could solve a number of technical challenges, the robot program can be tuned in off line mode, and the design and testing of the robot cell could be made in the simulator. Further on the design of the product could be optimized for robot welding and the jigs could be designed and tested in simulation environment. This means that a key issue of lean production can be solved; the welding operation will work with almost 100% performance when it is put into real production. Stabilizing of one key process is critical to gain control of the entire value chain, then a Takt Time can be established and the focus can be directed towards the next process in the production which should be stabilized. Results show that industrial parameters like welding time, welding cost and welding quality can be defined on the simulation stage. Further on, this gives valuable information for calculation of the factories business performance, like manufacturing volume and manufacturing efficiency. Industrial impact from simulation is more efficient implementation of lean manufacturing, since the welding process can be stabilized. More research should be done to gain more knowledge about simulation as a tool for implementation of lean, especially where there complex processes.

Keywords: simulation, lean, stabilization, welding process

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Ritvik Chauhan, Vijay Kumar Baraik

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Crime is a rare event on earth surface. It is not simple but a complex event occurring in a spatio- temporal environment. Crime is one of the most serious security threats to human environments as it may result in harm to the individuals through the loss of property, physical and psychological injuries. The conventional studies done on different nature crime was mostly related to laws, psychological, social and political themes. The geographical areas are heterogeneous in their environmental conditions, associations between structural conditions, social organization which contributing specific crimes. The crime pattern analysis is made through theories in which criminal events occurs in persistent, identifiable patterns in a particular space and time. It will be the combined analysis of spatial factors and rational factors to the crime. In this study, we are analyzing the combined factors for the origin of crime against children. Children have always been vulnerable to victimization more because they are silent victims both physically and mentally to crimes and they even not realize what is happening with them. Their trusting nature and innocence always misused by criminals to perform crimes. The nature of crime against children is changed in past years like child rape, kidnapping &abduction, selling & buying of girls, foeticide, infanticide, prostitution, child marriage etc turned to more cruel and inhuman. This study will focus on understanding the space-time pattern of crime against children during the period 2001-2012. It also makes an attempt to explore and ascertain the association of crimes categorised against children, its rates with various geographical and socio-demographic factors through causal analysis using selected indicators (child sex-ratio, education, literacy rate, employment, income, etc.) obtained from the Census of India and other government sources. The outcome of study will help identifying the high crime regions with specified nature of crimes. It will also review the existing efforts and exploring the new plausible measure for tracking, monitoring and minimization of crime rate to meet the end goal of protecting the children from crimes committed against them.

Keywords: crime against children, geographic profiling, spatio-temporal analysis, hotspot

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Authors: Goodness Thandi Ntuli

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As one of the sub-Saharan African countries, South Africa has a majority of women living at the receiving end of all ferocious atrocities, afflictions and social ills such as utter poverty, unemployment, morbidity, sexual exploitation and abuse, gender-based and domestic violence. The response to these social ills that permeate the South African context like wildfire requires postcolonial feminism as a lens which needs to directly address this particular context. In the empirical study that was conducted among the Zulu people about Zulu young women in the South African context, it was found that a postcolonial young woman has a lot of social challenges that militate against her. In her struggle to liberate herself, there are layers of oppression that she has to deal with before attaining emancipation of any kind. These layers of oppression emanate from postcolonial effects on cultural norms that come with patriarchal issues, racial issues as the woman of colour and socio-economic issues as the poverty-stricken marginalised woman. Such layers also render marginalized women voiceless on many occasions, and hence the kind of feminism that needs to be applied in this context has to give them a voice, worth and human dignity that they deserve. From the postcolonial feminist perspective, this paper examines the condition of women from the margins and seeks the ways in which the layers of oppression could be disengaged. In the process of the severed layers of oppression, these women can be uplifted to becoming the women of worth, restored to life-giving dignity from the inferiority complex of racial discrimination and liberation from all forms of patriarchy and its upshots that keep them bound by gender inequality. This requires, in particular, postcolonial feminism that would find profound ways of reaching into the deep-seated socialization and internalization of every kind of prejudice against women. It is the kind of feminism that questions the status core even among those who consider themselves feminists. With the ruination of all postcolonial layers of oppression, women in the margins could find real emancipation that they have always longed for through feminism that will take into consideration their context. This calls for the rethinking of feminism in different contexts because the conditions of the oppressed woman of the South cannot be the same as the conditions of the woman who considers herself oppressed in the North.

Keywords: exploration, feminism, postcolonial, margins, South African, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 223